The document discusses transportation trends and projections from 2000 to 2050. It finds that global passenger and freight transport is projected to increase 3 to 4 times and 2.5 to 3.5 times, respectively, by 2050. Transportation carbon dioxide emissions are also expected to rise but at a slower rate due to improved fuel efficiency. The outlook presents uncertainty and a range of scenarios depending on factors like economic growth, urbanization, and policy choices.

1. ITF Transport Outlook
Meeting the needs of 9 billion people
Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy
ITF Transport Outlook
Transforming Transportation
Transforming Transportation
Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy
Washington DC
Washington DC
26 January 2012
26 January 2012

2. 2
Global passenger transport activity 2000 – 2050
Index of pkm (2000 = 100) High: European
saturation levels
in BRICs
Low: Japanese
saturation levels
in BRICs
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

3. 3
Global passenger transport activity 2000-2050
• Meeting the needs of 9 billion people
• Outlook fraught with uncertainty over such a long period
• Global passenger-km increase 3-4 times by 2050
• Outside OECD pkm could increse 5 or 6 fold
• Range is not measure of uncertainty but illustrates potential impact
of modest changes in assumptions
• Low scenario – IEA base case in WEO 2008, Emerging economies
reach Japanese levels of car ownership and use levels
• High scenario: European saturation levels
• Share of car trips seems set to rise from <10% in China to >50%

4. 4
Aviation
• Medium term in line with IEA and IATA
• Longer term:
• Low scenario lower than IATA especially in
OECD countries
• High OECD continues to grow non-OECD
accelerates with deregulation and open skies
• High is still much lower than aircraft makers
forecasts

5. 5
Global freight transport activity, 2000 - 2050
Index of tkm (2000 = 100)
High:
Constant
freight
intensity
Low:
Dematerialisation
of growth
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

6. 6
Freight Transport Activity 2000-2050
• Global freight tonne-km to rise 2.5 – 3.5 times by 2050
• Low scenario: Dematerialisation of growth, eg shift to services
• High scenario: GDP growth continues at 2005 freight intensity levels
• Developing countries may be embarking on a relatively freight
intensive growth path, so full upside risk not reflected in graph

7. 7
High Scenarios
• Best interpreted as where demand would
like to go
• Realistic? Policy intervention?
• Eg fast urbanisation might slow growth of
car ownership and use
• High energy prices would suppress
• But high scenarios far from impossible

8. 8
Impact of Economic Crisis
USA External trade by sea and air, percentage change from pre-
crisis peak Jun-08 (Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)
USA external trade by Sea, total USA external trade by Air, total
(tonnes) (tonnes)
Sep-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Jul-08
Jul-08
2% 3%
1%
-3% -4%
-16%
-20%
Source: ITF Trade and Transport Database

9. 9
Impact of Economic Crisis
• Total trade by sea and air in US
• 2 years to recover, but now flatlining or
falling again
• End of stimulus, cooling of Chinese
growth, in Europe bite of austerity
• Outlook incorporated 5 year shift
• Next will look at longer stagnation

10. 10
EU External trade by sea and air, percentage change from pre-crisis peak
(Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)
EU 27 external trade by sea, total EU 27 external trade by air, total
(tonnes) (tonnes)
Jun-11
Sep-11
14%
Jul-08
Sep-11
Jun-11
Jul-08
8%
4%
-4% -4%
-17%
-20%
Source: ITF Trade and Transport Database

11. 11
Shift in centre of gravity from OECD to non-OECD countries
(halfway case between high and low scenarios)
Passenger mobility Passenger mobility
(pkm) 2000 (pkm) 2050
OECD
22%
Non-
OECD
OECD 46%
54% Non-
OECD
78%
Surface freight (tkm) 2000 Surface freight (tkm)
2050
OECD
Non-OEC 31%
OECD D
48% Non-
52%
OECD
69%
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

12. 12
Global CO2 emissions from transport index (2000 = 100)
High: European car
saturation levels in
BRICs air
liberalisation
Low: Japanese
saturation levels
in BRICs and
dematerialisation
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

13. 13
Global CO2 emissions from transport
• CO2 emissions rise less quickly than mobility
through fuel economy improvement
• Increase 2.5 to 3 times

14. Car Fuel Economy/CO2 Targets
12
Historical performance US-3%[1]
Enacted targets US-6%[2]
11
Proposed targets California
Unannounced proposal Canada
10
Uncertain targets EU
Liters per 100km, normalized to NEDC
Japan
9 China[3]
S. Korea
8
7
6
5
4
3
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source:
[1] Based on 3% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI .
[2] Based on 6% annual fleet GHG emissions reduction between 2017 and 2025 in the September 30th NOI .
[3] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower.
March 2011

15. 15
Global CO2 emissions from transport
• Maximisation of cost effective fuel economy
improvement around the world, eg through
continues progress with emissions standards
would stabilise emissions
• GFEI target
• 8 l/100km ave new fleet economy in 2008
rise to 4 l/100km in 2030; whole fleet 2005
• Impressive but not enough to for IPCC
450ppm CO2 limit

16. 16
Average LDV on-road fuel-intensity,
baseline and stabilization of emissions
(litres gasoline equivalent per 100km)
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

17. 17
Peak Travel?
Passenger-kilometres by private car and light trucks, 1970 – 2009
index (1990 = 100)
160
150
Germany
140
Australia
130
France
120 United
Kingdom
United
110 States
Japan
100
90 Oil price shock
and start of
crisis
80
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: ITF 2011 Transport Outlook from Household Survey Data

18. 18
Peak travel?
• Evidence of reduced responsiveness of car and light truck travel
to increasing incomes in advanced economies
• As the effect of income on travel (vkm) diminishes, it leaves a
larger role to other determinants such as fuel
prices, urbanisation, ageing and network management
• But economic cycle visible in US in particular
• And income distribution may have a large role. Income growth in
last decade concentrated on wealthiest 10%. Incomes decreased
in many of the lower deciles.

19. 19
Peak travel?
• High income households are less responsive due to
saturation, low income households very responsive
• Whether or not growing income translates into more driving
(VMT) thus also depends on the distribution of income growth
• Uncertainty over future income likely to play a role in medium
term
• Demographics becoming increasingly important
• These factors have strong implications for the projection of long
run transport demand

20. 20
Passenger Modal Split, 2005 and 2050
halfway case between high and low scenario, p-km (%)
OECD Non-OECD
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 2005 40% 2005
2050 2050
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0%
0%
Car+LT Air Rail Buses Other
Car+LT Air Rail Buses Other
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2011.

21. 21
Freight modal split by region, 2005 and 2050
halfway case between high and low scenarios, t-km (%)
OECD Non-OECD
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 2005 40% 2005
2050 2050
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0%
0%
Trucks Rail
Trucks Rail
Source: International Transport Forum calculations using MoMo version 2011.

22. Thank you
Michael Kloth
T +33 (0)1 45 24 95 96
E michael.kloth@oecd.org
Postal address
2 rue Andre Pascal
75775 Paris Cedex 16

23. 23
Total annual vehicle miles by household
income, USA, 1995, 2001, 2009