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Looking to the Future of Food Governance
From Risk Regulation
to Innovation Democracy
Andy Stirling
SPRU & STEPS Centre
plenary presentation to conference of the European Food Safety Authority
On Shaping the Future of Food Safety Together
EFSA, Parma,
14th October 2015
www.steps-centre.org/
www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/
www.multicriteriamapping.com
www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/people/peoplelists/person/7513
The Precautionary Principle
“Where an activity raises threats of
harm to the environment or human health,
precautionary measures should be taken
even if some cause and effect relationships are
not fully established scientifically.”
Wingspread, 1998
“The precautionary principle applies where
scientific evidence is insufficient, inconclusive
or uncertain and preliminary scientific evaluation
indicates that there are reasonable grounds for
concern that the potentially dangerous effects
on the environment, human, animal or plant
health may be inconsistent with the high level
of protection chosen by the EU” EU, 2000
Ambiguous as a definitive prescriptive ‘decision rule’
threat? seriousness? irreversibility? full scientific certainty? cost-effective?
Arbitrary in global legal processes: climate, chemicals, GMOs, biodiversity, trade
Non-operational and incapable of meeting political needs for justification
(eg: simple neat numerical values given by for risk and cost-benefit, analysis)
Compared with ‘science based’ risk assessment, seems
“ … Where there are threats
of serious or irreversible damage,
lack of full scientific certainty
shall not be used as a reason for
postponing cost-effective measures
to prevent environmental degradation ”
Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
The Precautionary Principle
Causes much anxiety, many strident critiques in ostensible name of reason…
- stifles discovery (Holm), limits innovation (Sunstein); “kills green revolution” (AEI)
- quest for “zero risk” (Majone) is irrational (Sunstein) sign of “unreason" (Taverne)
- “arbitrary & capricious” (Marchant); ;“spreads fear” (O’Neill); like “chemophobia” (AEI)
“ … Where there are threats
of serious or irreversible damage,
lack of full scientific certainty
shall not be used as a reason for
postponing cost-effective measures
to prevent environmental degradation ”
Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
The Precautionary Principle
Causes much anxiety, many strident critiques in ostensible name of reason…
- ‘no basis’ for policy (Peterson); “dangerous” (Graham); “harms society” (O’Neill)
- “battle between science and ideology”…about “religion” (Charnley)
- needs countering by new “proactionary” (More) and “innovation” principles (Bayer)
“ … Where there are threats
of serious or irreversible damage,
lack of full scientific certainty
shall not be used as a reason for
postponing cost-effective measures
to prevent environmental degradation ”
Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
“ … Where there are threats
of serious or irreversible damage,
lack of full scientific certainty
shall not be used as a reason for
postponing cost-effective measures
to prevent environmental degradation ”
Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
The Precautionary Principle
uncertainty requires
deliberation about action
participatory process
produces more robust knowledge than
probabilistic analysis
- Reminds that ‘science based’ methods don’t reduce intractability of uncertainty
- Rejects ‘evidence based policy’ as unique basis for action under uncertainty
- Affirms essential need for deliberation, participation, accountability, democracy
Like any principle, not in itself a definitive decision rule, but a key to a process:
transportmaterialscomputingmilitaryrobotics
One-Track Progress
synthetic biology
“we'll restore
science to its
rightful
place”…
“Our hope …
relies on
scientific and
technological
progress”
“One can not
impede scientific
progress.””
…“history is a race to
advance technology”
PROGRESS
TECHNOLOGY
SCIENCE
Lisbon Strategy for:
“pro-innovation
action”
“… the Government’s
strategy is …
pro-innovation”
“strives to stay in the race”
”“give technology the
status it deserves”
PROGRESS
TECHNOLOGY
SCIENCE
synthetic biology
“we'll restore
science to its
rightful
place”…
“Our hope …
relies on
scientific and
technological
progress”
“One can not
impede scientific
progress.””
Innovation studies also
emphasises linearity:
- advance (Nelson)
- diffusion (Rogers)
- early movers (Teece)
- first moving (Lieberman)
- catching up (Santangelo)
- latecomers (Tellis)
- forging ahead (Abramowicz)
- leapfrogging (Brezis)
- falling behind (Aho)
‘One Track’ Progress (social & technological)
But Innovation is Complex Emergent Social Choice
social & technological innovation as branching evolutionary process
transgenics
open source sharing
industrial hybrids cisgenicsmarker assist synthetic biology
participatory breeding apomixis
for instance, innovation for seed production…
transgenics cisgenicssynthetic biology
apomixis
social shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03)
studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05)
industrial hybrids
…and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
transgenics cisgenicssynthetic biology
apomixis
history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83)
path-dependence (David, 85) path creation (Karnoe, 01)
…and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
transgenicssynthetic biology
philosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91)
/politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02)
…and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
synthetic biology
economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89)
regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi, 82)
…and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions
to means: detailed regulation of
modalities
for: shareholder profit
value chain
controlled supply
affluent demand
market share
assertive IP
…
demand not supply measures
therapeutics not prevention
end-of-pipe remediation
functional foods
excludes:
supply side governance
advertising controls
cultural responses
grassroots innovation
public health measures
synthetic biology
…and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
privileges:
technology-intensive
commodity interests
high processing
focus on restricted to “tolerable risk” for incumbent pathway …
Seeing Like Power: from ‘Which Way?’ to ‘What Risk?’
Framing as specific presumed trajectory sidelines alternatives
Restricts attention from ends (what to do) to means (how to do it)
eg: ‘participation’, ‘ethics’,‘transitions’,‘responsibility’… and ‘risk’
synthetic biology
privileges:
technology-intensive
commodity interests
high processing
focus on restricted to “tolerable risk” for incumbent pathway …
Seeing Like Power: from ‘Which Way?’ to ‘What Risk?’
synthetic biology
Debate about choice
is reduced to
circumscribed
queries:
is this safe?
is this safe enough?
is this tolerable?
is this at least no worse
than the least safe
existing comparator?
And…
even on these narrow questions
the answers depend very radically
on the exact ways the questions are asked
privileges:
technology-intensive
commodity interests
high processing
Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative...
Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
0.001 0.1 10 1000
externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high
nuclear
power
Conventional regulatory risk
analysis asks simply:
- is this safe?
- safe enough?
- tolerable?
Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative...
Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
0.001 0.1 10 1000
externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high
nuclear
power
Where comparisons made,
selective and circumscribed
Appear to deliver clear,
objective distinctions
Contrast emotive subjectivity
of precaution or participation?
coal
power
Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative...
Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
0.001 0.1 10 1000
externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
wind
solar
biomass
In a single
particular study:
‘sound scientific’,
‘evidence based’
risk analysis
implies clear
orderings of
choices by simple
scalar numbers
Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative...
Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
0.001 0.1 10 1000
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
21
wind
solar
biomass
n =
‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)
minimum maximum25% 75%
low RISK high
but ‘objective’
peer-reviewed
data typically
varies radically
Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative...
Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
36
20
wind 18
solar 11
biomass 22
31
21
16
n =
…‘evidence based’ risk literatures can be used to justify any choice
Tho’ concealed,
the same is often
true for all options
Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative...
Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…
Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Framing Assumptions in Scientific Assessment
unproblematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
open dynamic systems
low frequency events
human factors
changing contexts
problematic
unsettle pro innovation, sound science, evidence based closure
Opening Up Uncertainty
- Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ...
risk assessment
cost benefit analysis
decision theory
optimising models
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
INCERTITUDE
what is benefit or harm?
how fair? which alternatives?
whose values and societies?
- Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ...
unsettle pro innovation, sound science, evidence based closure
Opening Up Uncertainty
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
novel agents or vectors
surprising conditions
new alternatives
wilful blinkers
INCERTITUDE
- Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ...
unsettle pro innovation, sound science, evidence based closure
Opening Up Uncertainty
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
aggregative analysis
patronage, pressure
political closure
insurance limits
reductive models
stochastic reasoning
`science-based
policy
institutional
remits
political
cultureliability protection
harm definitions
indicators / metrics
IGNORANCE
risk focus is shaped by power – Beck’s “organised irresponsibility”
Power Closes Down to Risk
illuminate specific microdynamics of closure
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
… collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude
Collective Action Opens Up Political Space
definitive
prevention
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
IGNORANCE
RISK
knowledge about possibilities
Practical ‘Cinderella Methods’
explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices
… collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude
UNCERTAINTY
burden of evidence
onus of persuasion
uncertainty factors
decision heuristics
interval analysis
sensitivity testing
precautionary
appraisal
AMBIGUITY
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
IGNORANCE
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
knowledge about possibilities
… collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude
scenarios
backcasting
interactive
modells
MC mapping
Q-method
participatory
deliberation
Practical ‘Cinderella Methods’
explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices
AMBIGUITY
knowledge
about
likelihoods
problematic UNCERTAINTY
… collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude
IGNORANCE
civic research,
monitoring,
flexibility,
reversibility
diversity,
resilience,
agility
learning
adaptation
unproblematic
unproblematic problematic
AMBIGUITYRISK
knowledge about possibilities
Practical ‘Cinderella Methods’
explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge
about
likelihoods
RISK
UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
knowledge about possibilities
Options
Options
humility
‘opening up’: options, issues, approaches, possibilities, perspectives
safety
sustainability
… social choice
Practical ‘Cinderella Methods’
explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices
AMBIGUITY
Mapping Perspectives for Deliberation
Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise
Analysis of 12 UK government GM advisors (2001)
organics
low input
intensive
GM 1
GM 2
GM 3
organics
low input
intensive
GM 1
GM 2
GM 3
UK Government
ecology chair
organics
low input
intensive
GM 1
GM 2
GM 3
organics
low input
intensive
GM 1
GM 2
GM 3
UK Government
safety chair
GM industry
research executive
Green NGO
scientist
Acknowledging assumptions, values, uncertainties
‘plural & conditional’ approach is rigorous & democratic
… if A, then x; … if B, then y
Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise
Mapping Perspectives for Deliberation
Conventional Risk-Based Politics
incumbent ‘sound science’ and ‘pro-innovation’ control political space
specific tech technological ‘lock-in’
risk
regulation
‘closed down’
politics
risk
Options
single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ /
most ‘legitimate’
decisions
risk
presumed benefits
case-by-case focus
narrow remits
aggregated attention
regulatory capture
technocratic procedures
narrow
assessment
knowledge
economy
$
IIIIII
€
Conventional Risk-Based Politics
incumbent ‘sound science’ and ‘pro-innovation’ control political space
possible paths
multiple feasible
Innovation trajectories
choice
discourse
risk
options
perspective
ss
plural conditional
recommendations
dissensus processes
sceptical politics
catalyse, not suppress,
democracy
Opening Up Innovation Democracy
risk
neglected issues
excluded values
alternative pathways
ignored uncertainties
marginalised interests
precautionary principle
Sustainability
innovation
democracy


















“letting go”
diversity, discontinuity, experiment
risk
“broadening out” “opening up”


reconciles
ostensibly contending
imperatives of
science and
democracy’
From risk regulation to innovation democracy
extend scope additive, cumulative, synergistic effects; life cycles, compliance
real world effects: CFCs, DES; ‘closed systems’: MTBE, PCBs
humility on science complexities, sensitivities, mobility, persistence, bioaccumulation
omission of persistence in organochlorines, MTBE,
CFCs
pro-active research balance power: monitoring, surveillance & targeted experiment
neglected: TBT, BSE; no monitoring: asbestos, benzene, PCBs
deliberate argument levels of proof, burden of evidence, onus of persuasion
Swann committee on antimicrobials, 1967 later ignored
alternative options pros, cons, justifications for range of innovations & substitutes
ALARA, BAT, BPM – ionising radiation, fisheries, acid rain
engage public independence through pluralism and robustness on values
plurality & learning transdisciplinary knowledge, beyond ‘usual suspects’ & methods
MTBE / engineers; BSE / vets (clinical / toxicology /
epidem.)
‘Broadening Out’ and ‘Opening Up’ (cf: EEA, 2001)
Precaution as appraisal process, not management ‘decision rule’

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From risk regulation to innovation democracy

  • 1. Looking to the Future of Food Governance From Risk Regulation to Innovation Democracy Andy Stirling SPRU & STEPS Centre plenary presentation to conference of the European Food Safety Authority On Shaping the Future of Food Safety Together EFSA, Parma, 14th October 2015 www.steps-centre.org/ www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/ www.multicriteriamapping.com www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/people/peoplelists/person/7513
  • 2. The Precautionary Principle “Where an activity raises threats of harm to the environment or human health, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically.” Wingspread, 1998 “The precautionary principle applies where scientific evidence is insufficient, inconclusive or uncertain and preliminary scientific evaluation indicates that there are reasonable grounds for concern that the potentially dangerous effects on the environment, human, animal or plant health may be inconsistent with the high level of protection chosen by the EU” EU, 2000 Ambiguous as a definitive prescriptive ‘decision rule’ threat? seriousness? irreversibility? full scientific certainty? cost-effective? Arbitrary in global legal processes: climate, chemicals, GMOs, biodiversity, trade Non-operational and incapable of meeting political needs for justification (eg: simple neat numerical values given by for risk and cost-benefit, analysis) Compared with ‘science based’ risk assessment, seems “ … Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation ” Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
  • 3. The Precautionary Principle Causes much anxiety, many strident critiques in ostensible name of reason… - stifles discovery (Holm), limits innovation (Sunstein); “kills green revolution” (AEI) - quest for “zero risk” (Majone) is irrational (Sunstein) sign of “unreason" (Taverne) - “arbitrary & capricious” (Marchant); ;“spreads fear” (O’Neill); like “chemophobia” (AEI) “ … Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation ” Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
  • 4. The Precautionary Principle Causes much anxiety, many strident critiques in ostensible name of reason… - ‘no basis’ for policy (Peterson); “dangerous” (Graham); “harms society” (O’Neill) - “battle between science and ideology”…about “religion” (Charnley) - needs countering by new “proactionary” (More) and “innovation” principles (Bayer) “ … Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation ” Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration
  • 5. “ … Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation ” Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration The Precautionary Principle uncertainty requires deliberation about action participatory process produces more robust knowledge than probabilistic analysis - Reminds that ‘science based’ methods don’t reduce intractability of uncertainty - Rejects ‘evidence based policy’ as unique basis for action under uncertainty - Affirms essential need for deliberation, participation, accountability, democracy Like any principle, not in itself a definitive decision rule, but a key to a process:
  • 6. transportmaterialscomputingmilitaryrobotics One-Track Progress synthetic biology “we'll restore science to its rightful place”… “Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” “One can not impede scientific progress.”” …“history is a race to advance technology” PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE Lisbon Strategy for: “pro-innovation action” “… the Government’s strategy is … pro-innovation” “strives to stay in the race” ”“give technology the status it deserves”
  • 7. PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE synthetic biology “we'll restore science to its rightful place”… “Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” “One can not impede scientific progress.”” Innovation studies also emphasises linearity: - advance (Nelson) - diffusion (Rogers) - early movers (Teece) - first moving (Lieberman) - catching up (Santangelo) - latecomers (Tellis) - forging ahead (Abramowicz) - leapfrogging (Brezis) - falling behind (Aho) ‘One Track’ Progress (social & technological)
  • 8. But Innovation is Complex Emergent Social Choice social & technological innovation as branching evolutionary process transgenics open source sharing industrial hybrids cisgenicsmarker assist synthetic biology participatory breeding apomixis for instance, innovation for seed production…
  • 9. transgenics cisgenicssynthetic biology apomixis social shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03) studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05) industrial hybrids …and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
  • 10. transgenics cisgenicssynthetic biology apomixis history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83) path-dependence (David, 85) path creation (Karnoe, 01) …and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
  • 11. transgenicssynthetic biology philosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91) /politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02) …and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
  • 12. synthetic biology economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89) regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi, 82) …and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed
  • 13. Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions to means: detailed regulation of modalities for: shareholder profit value chain controlled supply affluent demand market share assertive IP … demand not supply measures therapeutics not prevention end-of-pipe remediation functional foods excludes: supply side governance advertising controls cultural responses grassroots innovation public health measures synthetic biology …and Social Choice Gets Politically Closed privileges: technology-intensive commodity interests high processing
  • 14. focus on restricted to “tolerable risk” for incumbent pathway … Seeing Like Power: from ‘Which Way?’ to ‘What Risk?’ Framing as specific presumed trajectory sidelines alternatives Restricts attention from ends (what to do) to means (how to do it) eg: ‘participation’, ‘ethics’,‘transitions’,‘responsibility’… and ‘risk’ synthetic biology privileges: technology-intensive commodity interests high processing
  • 15. focus on restricted to “tolerable risk” for incumbent pathway … Seeing Like Power: from ‘Which Way?’ to ‘What Risk?’ synthetic biology Debate about choice is reduced to circumscribed queries: is this safe? is this safe enough? is this tolerable? is this at least no worse than the least safe existing comparator? And… even on these narrow questions the answers depend very radically on the exact ways the questions are asked privileges: technology-intensive commodity interests high processing
  • 16. Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative... Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
  • 17. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high nuclear power Conventional regulatory risk analysis asks simply: - is this safe? - safe enough? - tolerable? Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative... Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
  • 18. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high nuclear power Where comparisons made, selective and circumscribed Appear to deliver clear, objective distinctions Contrast emotive subjectivity of precaution or participation? coal power Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative... Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
  • 19. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high coal oil gas nuclear hydro wind solar biomass In a single particular study: ‘sound scientific’, ‘evidence based’ risk analysis implies clear orderings of choices by simple scalar numbers Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative... Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
  • 20. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 coal oil gas nuclear hydro 21 wind solar biomass n = ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005) minimum maximum25% 75% low RISK high but ‘objective’ peer-reviewed data typically varies radically Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative... Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
  • 21. coal oil gas nuclear hydro 36 20 wind 18 solar 11 biomass 22 31 21 16 n = …‘evidence based’ risk literatures can be used to justify any choice Tho’ concealed, the same is often true for all options Regulatory assessment of food is only rarely fully comparative... Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
  • 22. Framing Assumptions in Scientific Assessment
  • 23. unproblematic knowledge about likelihoods RISK UNCERTAINTY open dynamic systems low frequency events human factors changing contexts problematic unsettle pro innovation, sound science, evidence based closure Opening Up Uncertainty - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ... risk assessment cost benefit analysis decision theory optimising models
  • 24. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY INCERTITUDE what is benefit or harm? how fair? which alternatives? whose values and societies? - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ... unsettle pro innovation, sound science, evidence based closure Opening Up Uncertainty
  • 25. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE novel agents or vectors surprising conditions new alternatives wilful blinkers INCERTITUDE - Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Dovers, Ravetz, Wynne ... unsettle pro innovation, sound science, evidence based closure Opening Up Uncertainty
  • 26. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY aggregative analysis patronage, pressure political closure insurance limits reductive models stochastic reasoning `science-based policy institutional remits political cultureliability protection harm definitions indicators / metrics IGNORANCE risk focus is shaped by power – Beck’s “organised irresponsibility” Power Closes Down to Risk illuminate specific microdynamics of closure
  • 27. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about possibilities RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE … collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude Collective Action Opens Up Political Space definitive prevention
  • 28. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods IGNORANCE RISK knowledge about possibilities Practical ‘Cinderella Methods’ explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices … collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude UNCERTAINTY burden of evidence onus of persuasion uncertainty factors decision heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing precautionary appraisal AMBIGUITY
  • 29. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods IGNORANCE RISK UNCERTAINTY knowledge about possibilities … collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude scenarios backcasting interactive modells MC mapping Q-method participatory deliberation Practical ‘Cinderella Methods’ explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices AMBIGUITY
  • 30. knowledge about likelihoods problematic UNCERTAINTY … collective action by civil society ‘open up’ space for appreciating incertitude IGNORANCE civic research, monitoring, flexibility, reversibility diversity, resilience, agility learning adaptation unproblematic unproblematic problematic AMBIGUITYRISK knowledge about possibilities Practical ‘Cinderella Methods’ explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices
  • 31. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods RISK UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE knowledge about possibilities Options Options humility ‘opening up’: options, issues, approaches, possibilities, perspectives safety sustainability … social choice Practical ‘Cinderella Methods’ explore and experiment with ‘plural conditional’ practices AMBIGUITY
  • 32. Mapping Perspectives for Deliberation Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise Analysis of 12 UK government GM advisors (2001) organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3
  • 33. UK Government ecology chair organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 UK Government safety chair GM industry research executive Green NGO scientist Acknowledging assumptions, values, uncertainties ‘plural & conditional’ approach is rigorous & democratic … if A, then x; … if B, then y Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise Mapping Perspectives for Deliberation
  • 34. Conventional Risk-Based Politics incumbent ‘sound science’ and ‘pro-innovation’ control political space
  • 35. specific tech technological ‘lock-in’ risk regulation ‘closed down’ politics risk Options single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ / most ‘legitimate’ decisions risk presumed benefits case-by-case focus narrow remits aggregated attention regulatory capture technocratic procedures narrow assessment knowledge economy $ IIIIII € Conventional Risk-Based Politics incumbent ‘sound science’ and ‘pro-innovation’ control political space
  • 36. possible paths multiple feasible Innovation trajectories choice discourse risk options perspective ss plural conditional recommendations dissensus processes sceptical politics catalyse, not suppress, democracy Opening Up Innovation Democracy risk neglected issues excluded values alternative pathways ignored uncertainties marginalised interests precautionary principle Sustainability innovation democracy                   “letting go” diversity, discontinuity, experiment risk “broadening out” “opening up”   reconciles ostensibly contending imperatives of science and democracy’
  • 38. extend scope additive, cumulative, synergistic effects; life cycles, compliance real world effects: CFCs, DES; ‘closed systems’: MTBE, PCBs humility on science complexities, sensitivities, mobility, persistence, bioaccumulation omission of persistence in organochlorines, MTBE, CFCs pro-active research balance power: monitoring, surveillance & targeted experiment neglected: TBT, BSE; no monitoring: asbestos, benzene, PCBs deliberate argument levels of proof, burden of evidence, onus of persuasion Swann committee on antimicrobials, 1967 later ignored alternative options pros, cons, justifications for range of innovations & substitutes ALARA, BAT, BPM – ionising radiation, fisheries, acid rain engage public independence through pluralism and robustness on values plurality & learning transdisciplinary knowledge, beyond ‘usual suspects’ & methods MTBE / engineers; BSE / vets (clinical / toxicology / epidem.) ‘Broadening Out’ and ‘Opening Up’ (cf: EEA, 2001) Precaution as appraisal process, not management ‘decision rule’