Presentation by Pascaline Descy (Head of the area Research and Policy Analysis, Cedefop) on the occasion of the EESC Labour Market Observatory conference held on 3 December 2013 in Thessaloniki, Greece

1. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Skills forecast and mismatch
in Europe
Pascaline Descy
Head of research and policy analysis
Cedefop
25/10/ 2011
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2. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Skills are key
For competitiveness in knowledge economies
 Higher skills and ability to use skills = higher productivity
For career and life success





Employment
Wages
Civic engagement
Health
Adaptability
But which skills? For which jobs?
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3. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Top sectors & jobs demand in the EU
Expansion
demand
Replacement
demand
Job
openings
Health &
social work
1.5
7.3
8.8
Professional
services
2.7
5.7
8.4
Retail
0.9
5.5
6.5
Education
0.3
5.7
6.0
Other
business
services
1.7
4.2
Change in employment by major occupational groups,
2000-2025
5.9
TOP 5
sectors
2010-2020
3
Cyprus Presidency Conference
Source: Cedefop skill supply and skill demand forecast model
22/10/2012

4. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Demand for both high & medium
qualification
60%
Change in required educational level in jobs, 2000-2020, EU27
51%
49%
50%
48%
40%
29%
30%
20%
19%
20%
35%
32%
17%
10%
0%
2000
2010
Low
Medium
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Source: European Social Survey data
& Cedefop’s skill supply and skill demand forecast model
2020
High

5. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
The right ‘skills mix’?
Skills for success




Basic/foundation skills
Generic/transversal & ICT skills – increasingly important in workplace
Specific technical knowledge
Adaptability, flexibility and career management skills
Entering the labour market
 Specific technical knowledge - along with generic skills
 Work experience – ‘simulated work practices’ at school or work-based learning
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6. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Skills increasing in importance
The view of employers
Machine
mechanics
Shop sales
persons
Finance
professionals
Source: Cedefop pilot survey on skill needs in Europe
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7. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
A Skill Mismatch in Europe?
Skills shortages
o Significant deficits of basic skills
o Bottlenecks in specific sectors or occupations (e.g. health,
ICT, finance, engineering)
o EU firms report difficulties in finding staff with required skills
Percentage of employers facing
difficulties filling their jobs, 2006-2013
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Source: Manpower Talent Surveys

8. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Displacement effects during the crisis
Change (%) in employment by occupational group and skill level, EU27, 2007-2011
Elementary occupations
Low education
Medium education
High education
Skilled manual
Skilled non manual
High skill
Total
-40
-30
Source: Eurostat data
8
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40

9. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Claims of skill shortages but….
The best educated workforce ever and low job creation
 About 40m EU workers (20% of labour force) currently unemployed or
underemployed – significant share with high qualifications or skills
 1 out of 4 HE graduates took up medium/low skill jobs (25% HE overqualification)
 23% of EU workers mismatched in field of study
 In 2011, 74m employees jobs in need of medium-qualifications, but
61m medium-educated workers available
 Stable or falling job complexity in past decade in some MS  skill
underutilisation
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10. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Informing decisions –
From the local to the EU level
Available jobs and
skills demand
PES
Regional observatories
Skill mismatch
Future skill needs
Shortages
Overqualification
Overskilling
Forecasts
Foresight
Scenarios
Mid-term
labour market
trends
Sector/occupation
skill requirements
Current labour
market flows
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11. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
EU Skills Panorama
A central access point to data, information
and intelligence on skill needs in Europe
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12. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
A more skill intensive and
competitive labour market
Provide guidance and
counseling in
education and during
careers
Reform education
and training
Renew qualifications
in partnerships
Support mobility between
occupations, sectors and
countries
Project-based and
work-based learning
to combine basic,
technical and generic
skills and increase job
readiness
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13. Pascaline Descy – 3 December 2013
Thank you for your attention
http://www.cedefop.europa.eu
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