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Agent Based Modeling & Roman Resource Extraction An exploratory lab Shawn Graham, Carleton University shawn_graham@carleton.ca @electricarchaeo
The problem with Roman resources Evidence Growth and the extractive economy?
Harold Innis & the intellectual foundations for growth
Agent modeling Necessary simplifications Simulation: not of the past, but of our thinking about the past Bill Murray &  Groundhog Day
The model Economy Environment Patronage ....in a resource economy, patronage enables  effective exploitation...
An Example of Model Code
Set up the basics: 1. create a world with a resource. 2. harvest 3. movement = consumes resource. 4. consumption > resource = death.
Add patronage: 5. can ask for help (become a client) 6. can help others; can improve the world 7. compete & support
In practice, one cycle looks like this:
Model Results Four different resource settings Model stops at 50 generations # of cycles it takes to reach that end point: stability, instability Generated social networks:  Network growth Network reach (participation rate) Embeddedness Compare with real-world social networks
Correspondence with observed brick networks in first & second centuries Other patterns ‘strong’ network growth implications  Occurs for particular settings for forest, mineral, and clay embeddedness
Lab conclusions Patterns of inequality What kind of growth?
From the lab to the real world: an agenda A framework for understanding... BUT Need more & better network data from antiquity Epigraphy, prosopography, archaeometry, regional distribution studies, etc can provide this A model is just a tool for sharpening thoughts.  Model shortcomings & desiderata

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Agent based modeling & roman resource extraction

  • 1. Agent Based Modeling & Roman Resource Extraction An exploratory lab Shawn Graham, Carleton University shawn_graham@carleton.ca @electricarchaeo
  • 2. The problem with Roman resources Evidence Growth and the extractive economy?
  • 3. Harold Innis & the intellectual foundations for growth
  • 4.
  • 5. Agent modeling Necessary simplifications Simulation: not of the past, but of our thinking about the past Bill Murray & Groundhog Day
  • 6. The model Economy Environment Patronage ....in a resource economy, patronage enables effective exploitation...
  • 7. An Example of Model Code
  • 8. Set up the basics: 1. create a world with a resource. 2. harvest 3. movement = consumes resource. 4. consumption > resource = death.
  • 9. Add patronage: 5. can ask for help (become a client) 6. can help others; can improve the world 7. compete & support
  • 10. In practice, one cycle looks like this:
  • 11. Model Results Four different resource settings Model stops at 50 generations # of cycles it takes to reach that end point: stability, instability Generated social networks: Network growth Network reach (participation rate) Embeddedness Compare with real-world social networks
  • 12. Correspondence with observed brick networks in first & second centuries Other patterns ‘strong’ network growth implications Occurs for particular settings for forest, mineral, and clay embeddedness
  • 13. Lab conclusions Patterns of inequality What kind of growth?
  • 14. From the lab to the real world: an agenda A framework for understanding... BUT Need more & better network data from antiquity Epigraphy, prosopography, archaeometry, regional distribution studies, etc can provide this A model is just a tool for sharpening thoughts. Model shortcomings & desiderata

Notas do Editor

  1. http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/innis-mcluhan/index-e.html Harold Innis, 1920s, photograph by H. James
  2. Prince of Wales (later Edward VII), Sept 1901http://www.forestryforum.com/board/index.php?action=printpage%3Btopic=18781.0%3Bimageshttp://www.theprovince.com/Vancouver+1880s/4563695/story.htmlhttp://www.unbf.ca/forestry/centers/cwru/soe/timeline.htmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_slide
  3. . create a world with a resource.2. allow agents to harvest that resource (they can see a certain distance within the world).3. movement in the world consumes the resource (they all have differing metabolisms).4. if agents consume more resource than they have on hand, they die.
  4. . agents could ask for help from those in their local neighborhood (thus becoming clients).6. helping other agents (ie, being a patron) increases prestige, which translates back into an enhanced ability to extract resources (a routine for euergetism).7. agents with high prestige compete against each other for even more prestige, drawing on the resources of those who owe them for their earlier help.http://www.history.com/photos/chester-a-arthur/photo4
  5. If we can encode our beliefs about the past, we can explore the unintended & emergent outcomes of those beliefs via modelling.