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THE CHINA TECH LETTER




                         Qihoo 360
                China’s Antivirus King Is Just Starting To Cash In




Research by …
Report Highlights                                                                                                                   2


Access To Nearly Every PC In China                                                                                Chapters
• 378mn Users: Every PC user in China needs what Qihoo has – security software. They want it for free,
  too, and Qihoo obliges. That’s made Qihoo second only to Tencent’s QQ messenger in terms of popularity
  with Chinese PC users, and given the scrappy underdog the nerve to directly challenge Tencent.
• More Than Security: Qihoo’s extensive offering of software, portals and emerging cloud services is
  repositioning the company as a command center for the Web in China. It’s the starting point for users to
                                                                                                                  1. Quick View
  set up their PCs, a hub for cataloging and synchronizing content and apps among devices, and a launching
  pad for safely surfing the Web.
                                                                                                                  2. Drill Down
Monetization Is Solidly Underway
• Ads To Start: Qihoo collects ~75% of its revenue from ads placed on the default start-up page of its
                                                                                                                  3. Competition
  browser – a big change from three years ago when it made its money by selling security software. But by
  making its core software free, and bundling it with a browser, Qihoo now has access to a much larger user
  base that advertisers value. The 360 Browser is the second most popular in China behind Internet Explorer,
                                                                                                                  4. Management
  and the default start-up page, hao360.cn, had 45mn unique daily visitors in June, or about 10% of China’s
  Internet users.
• Games: Though PC-based ads will serve it well in the near term, Qihoo is also promoting its open platform
  for web-based gaming as an alternative channel for monetizing its user base. Games generate revenue
  through in-game ads and the sale of virtual items, of which Qihoo takes a 65% cut.
• Mobile Next: Qihoo already captures 58% of the active users of mobile security software in China. The
  firm is using its tried-and-true strategy of giving away the security software in order to get itself onto as
  many smartphones as possible, after which we believe it will begin monetization by placing text link ads on
  its bundled browser and by offering premium, fee-based security services.

Plenty Of Room For Growth
• Opportunity: Qihoo is already profitable and is still growing fast – revenue up 161% in 2011e. The firm
  currently trades at 37x our 2012 earnings forecast of $0.64 (non-GAAP), making it much more attractive
  than some of the other recent Chinese IPOs. The firm is creating a highly leveraged software and services
  platform based on trust and convenience – enviable assets when dealing with consumers -- and many view
  its product as a necessity, much like Tencent’s QQ or Baidu’s search tools. This gives it enormous potential
  to push new products to an increasingly savvy and demanding Net surfer in China.
• Risk: Qihoo founder Zhou Hong-yi is a hard knocks entrepreneur unafraid to pick a fight. This has made
  Qihoo lots of enemies, the most powerful being Tencent. Already, the firm is working to erode Qihoo’s
  influence by investing in its closest rival, Kingsoft, and by blatantly copying one of its more innovative
  products, a GUI overlay for Windows that makes the desktop operate like an iPhone. If Tencent is able to
  successfully eat into these two markets, it will slow the growth of Qihoo and increase its costs if it has to   August 31, 2011
  fight for the attention of consumers through additional marketing campaigns.
3




Quick View




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4


Qihoo Is A Strong, Scrappy Contender
Thesis: We are positive about the
                                             Quick View
long-term revenue growth
opportunity at Qihoo. As China’s             Founded      2005
leading software security firm, Qihoo        Ticker       QIHU. IPO 3/2011. Offered @ $14.50; opened @ $27.
is used by nearly 380mn Internet                          2011: ~$151mn, up 161% YoY
users. The 360 Safe Guard product            Revenue
isn’t the most robust, but it’s good                      2012: $255mn, up 68% YoY
enough and the price (free) is right.        Target
                                             Audience     PC and smartphone users.
Consumers trust it, making them
loyal and giving Qihoo a beachhead           User base    378mn active users, ~92% of Chinese Net users
on the PC matched only by Tencent’s          Market
                                                          ~85% PC; ~35% browser; ~60% smartphone
                                             Share
popular QQ IM.
We believe Qihoo is only at the early stages of monetizing its massive user base. By distributing related PC tools,
like browsers and app aggregators, Qihoo will increase sales through ads and revenue sharing opportunities.
Moreover, Qihoo is an early leader in the market for mobile security products just as China is starting to make its
transition to smartphones.
The next step is leveraging its advantage in PC and mobile to create cloud services and synch products that elevate
the role of the 360 suite to an organizing point for all the digital content and clutter in a user’s life. We believe this
will bind users even closer to Qihoo, thus increasing its influence among advertisers while also making it a more
attractive partner for third party application developers.
Risk To Our Thesis: Qihoo doesn’t just have competitors, it has hard-earned enemies. From Alibaba and Tencent,
to Kingsoft and Netqin. Qihoo management, led by the controversial Zhou Hongyi, isn’t afraid to instigate a fight
and then win it by questionable means. Even though it’s shown an ability to bloody the nose of industry
heavyweights like Tencent and come out relatively unscathed, the company’s combative style will always be a risk
for negative news flow that could spook investors.
Other risks include a slowdown in advertising revenue, especially from the e-commerce sector, which represents
40% of ad sales and 30.5% of total revenue. Qihoo will also continue to face considerable competition in antivirus,
browsers, gaming and app distribution.
5



     Qihoo’s User Base Rivals Other Net Giants
                     710mn




                                                                                 Measured by users.
                                                       378mn
                                                                      370mn                278mn




                    Tencent*                             Qihoo*       Taobao**               Sina**
          * By Active User Accounts. ** By Registered User Accounts

Source: iResearch 2011.02
6


        Ads Major Driver Of Strong Revenue Growth
                                                    Google’s
                                                    percentage of
                                                    Qihoo’s revenues
                                                    has decreased
                                                    from 21% in
                                                    2010 to 11% in
                                                    Q2 2011,
                                                    although the
                                                    absolute amount
                                                    of revenue from
                                                    Google has been
                                                    increasing.




Source: Company, RedTech Advisors estimates
7


Qihoo SWOT Analysis
 Strengths                                          Weaknesses
  Huge, loyal user base of security software.       Search engine referral commissions come
  Reputation for safety & reliability plays well   mainly from Google. Baidu and Qihoo are
 into new markets.                                  locked in a court battle over past fees.

  Qihoo’s web browser is the only successful        e-Commerce accounts for 40% of ads
 competitor to Internet Explorer in China.          revenue. Any drop in client spending there
                                                    would have a significant impact.
  Ad client base at 210 and growing. Top 5
 customers account for 35% of revenue in             Qihoo & CEO Zhou Hongyi have made
 2010.                                              many enemies, which may limit partnerships.

  Profitable. $308mn on balance sheet,              User base still unproven as a cash cow.
 which positions it for acquisitions.               Consumers use Qihoo products in part to
                                                    avoid ads.

 Opportunities                                      Threats
  Ad revenue just starting to take off. User        Baidu and Tencent want to be bigger
 base relatively untapped for direct                players in the PC safety market, the
 monetization via games, e-commerce, etc.           cornerstone of Qihoo’s success. Tencent
                                                    already copying Qihoo’s desktop app.
  Gaming starting to gain momentum.
                                                     In mobile, rival Netqin (invested by
  Mobile product can offer fee-based
                                                    Qualcomm and Mediatek) will try to displace
 premium services (but not till 2013/14).
                                                    Qihoo, threatening a huge future revenue
  Strong potential to further bind users by        source.
 integrating and simplifying the management
                                                     The company is built upon its reputation
 of software and content across the PC,
                                                    for safety and integrity – not flashy products
 mobile and app store.
                                                    or services. One crisis could be disastrous.
8


Recent Performance
• Strong in August: Qihoo outperformed the major US
  indexes in August, ending the month with a 3.25% gain       MRQ Quick Read                          2Q10    2Q11    YoY Change
  against declines of 6.41% in the NASDAQ, 5.67% for the      Total net revenues (US$mn)               12.7    35.1       177%
  S&P 500 and 4.36% for the Dow Jones.                         Online advertising                       8.5    26.8       216%

• Valuation: At $23.80, Qihoo trades at ~70x our 2011          Internet value-added services            3.1     8.1       159%
  earnings estimate of $0.34 and 37x our 2012 estimate of     Gross profit                             11.2    31.4       180%
  $0.64 (non-GAAP). This is no value stock for sure, but
                                                              Gross profit margin                     88.3%   89.5%       1.2ppt
  we are bullish on its growth prospects and would be
  buyers on any weakness, especially below $20.               Income (loss) from operations             2.4    12.7       434%
                                                              Operating margin                         19%     36%       17.5ppt
• Volatility: During last two months, mostly trading in the
  $20-$25 range, with a short-lived dip below $20 in          Net Income (loss)                         2.2    11.1       410%
  August before its earnings announcement, which handily      Net margin                               17%     32%       14.5ppt
  beat its earlier (conservative) estimates. We expect to     Non-GAAP Net Income                       1.0    13.2      1199%
  see more interest in the company as sell-side coverage
                                                              Net Income per ADS (diluted)            0.05    0.09         80%
  increases and management hits the road in the Fall to
  better communicate its position and strategy in China.      Non-GAAP Net Income per ADS (diluted)   0.02    0.11        358%




                                                                                                                          8
  Source: Google
9

1-Month Performance: Qihoo up 3.8% in August.




5-week Performance: Qihoo outperforms security peers.




                                           Trend Micro: -5.4%


                                                                                   NASDAQ: -9%




                                                                                                 Symantec: -9.9%

                            Qihoo: -3.8%
                                                                Kingsoft: -23.1%




Source: Google
10

5-Week Performance: Qihoo outperforms most of China Internet Peers.




                                                                   NASDAQ: -6.7%
                                                Tencent: -11.9%                                             Baidu: -1.6%
                                                                                            Qihoo: -3.1%




                                                                                                  Kingsoft: -21.9%



                                  RennRenn: -33%

                                                                         Youku: -24.1%




3-Month Performance: Qihoo performs well against China Internet Peers.




                             Kingsoft: -2.9%
                                                                                                       Baidu: +7.4%
                                                                     NASDAQ: -9%




                                                                                                           Tencent: -17.4%
                                                                  Qihoo: -8.8%



                                                                         RennRenn: -42.9%         Youku: -40.7%


Source: Google
11


Outlook: Positive

Stock Data
Ticker                                       QIHU US           ADS O/S (mn)                 1 23.4        Market Cap (mn)                 $     2,93 7
Market price                            $               23.80 52-Week Range (US$)                                      16 .0 1 - 36.2 1
A vg Daily Vol (3 Mo, mn shares)                          0.9 Performance                     W TD          1 week        4 week              YTD
F ree float (%)                                59 %            Absol ute                             6%          1%             14%              -30%
                                        Hong yi Zhou,
Major shareholders                                             Relative                              2%          -3%            18%              -23%
                                        Xiangdong Qi


Financial Data
FY Dec (US$mn, except per share data)          2008A            2009A           2010A            2011E           2012E              2013E
Revenue                                                 17                32        58                151               255                   393
   Y/Y                                                   NA           91 %          79 %              161 %              69 %                  54 %
Gross Profit                                             9                24        51                134               220                   333
  GM %                                                  51 %          74 %          88 %                  89 %           86 %                  85 %
Operating Profit                                         (3)               4            9                 22              71                  109
  OM %                                              -18 %             14 %          16 %                  15 %           28 %                  28 %
Pre tax net                                              (3)               5            9                 24              72                  110
  PTM %                                             -17 %             14 %          16 %                  16 %           28 %                  28 %
NPAT                                                     (3)               4            9                 15              61                   93
  NPAT %                                            -16 %             13 %          15 %                  10 %           24 %                  24 %
   Y/Y                                                   NA         -253 %         104 %                  76 %          307 %                  53 %
D iluted EPS                                       (0.0 7)            0.03         0.05               0.08              0.33                  0.50

GAAP EPADS                                        (0.11)             0.05          0.08               0.12              0.50                  0.76
Non GAAP diluted EPS                               (0.0 5)            0.06         0.13               0.23              0.43                  0.65
Non GAAP EPADS                                    (0.08)             0.09          0.20               0.34              0.64                  0.98
P/E (x) on GAAP EPADS                                   NM          488 .1        317 .3             192 .4             48 .0                 31 .5
P/E (x) on non-GAAP EPADS                               NM         256.1          119.5               70.0              37.3                  24.3
ROE (%)                                                  NM          154 %          12 %                   5%            17 %                  21 %
Net debt (net cash)/equity (%)                           NM                NM     2223 %                  92 %           89 %                  88 %
Source: RedTech Advisors estimates
12

COMPARABLES                                                                                         EPADS - EPS                     P/E                       P/S           PEG
Name                Ticker      Share price     Market cap     Currency     Gross margin       2011E          2012E         2011E       2012E           2012E             2012E
Qihoo 3 60          QIHU                 23.8          2.94B      USD              89.5%            0.34             0.64       70.0            37.3            12                0.1
Baidu               BIDU              145.78          50.87B      USD              74.2%                2.9          4.37       50.3            33.4            15                0.4
Symantec            SYMC               17.15          12.86B      USD              84.3%              1.64           1.82       10.5             9.4            1.8               0.9
Kingsoft            388 8 HK            0.53            0.6B      USD              86.8%             0.04            0.05       13.2            11.1                3.5           0.6
Tencent             070 0 HK          24.11            44.2B      USD              65.4%             0.75            0.96       32.3            25.1                9.5           0.7

Profit & Loss                                                                                  Balance Sheet
FY ends Dec 31 (Figures in US$)       2009A       2010A        2011E      2012E      2013E     Current assets                       2010A        2011E         2012E        2013E
Revenue                                 32.3        57.7        150.7      254.9      393.0    Cash and cash equivalents              60.5        270.1        317.8         394.7
 Online advertising                     13.9        38.8        113.2      189.8      294.6    Accounts receivable                     8.2         21.3          36.1         55.6
 Internet value-added services           2.1        14.8         36.6       64.1       97.4    Other current assets                    3.9          3.9           3.9          3.9
  Others                                 16.3         4.1         1.0        1.0        1.0
 Cost of revenues                         8.4         6.8        17.1       34.9       59.6    Non-current assets
 Gross profit                            23.9        50.9       133.6      220.0      333.4    Property and equipment. Net               3.3            4.5         5.7         5.9
 Operating expenditure                                                                         Long term investment                      2.0            2.0         2.0         2.0
  Research and development              (10.7)      (24.5)      (56.4)     (86.8)    (133.9)   Other non-current assets                  9.9         9.9         9.9          9.9
  Sales and marketing                    (6.3)      (12.6)      (39.4)     (36.8)     (51.1)   Total assets                             87.8       311.8       375.4        472.1
 General and administrative              (2.5)       (5.1)      (16.1)     (25.7)     (39.6)
Operating profit                          4.5         9.0        21.9       70.7      109.0    Current liabilities
 Income tax expenses                     (0.4)       (0.5)       (8.9)     (10.8)     (16.5)   Accounts payable                          1.4            3.6      6.1          9.5
Net profit attr. to shareholders          2.1         5.5        15.3       61.1       93.3    Others                                   12.5           12.5     12.5         12.5
                                                                                               Non-current liabilities                   1.0            1.0         1.0         1.0
Cash Flow
Operating cashflow                        9.0        20.1        10.5       60.2       96.2    Convertible preferred shares             70.2           -            -         -
 Net income                               4.2         8.5        15.3       61.1       93.3
 Depreciation & amortization              4.1         1.3         6.2       11.3       19.1    Additional paid in capital               12.6       289.2       289.2        289.2
  Change in working capital              (1.5)        6.3       (10.9)     (12.2)     (16.2)   Retained earnings                       (13.6)           1.6     62.8        156.1
  Others                                  2.2         4.0         -          -          -      Noncontrolling interest                   0.5            0.5      0.5          0.5
                                                                                               Total equity,preferred shares             2.7       294.7       355.8        449.1
Investing cashflow                       (4.2)       (9.1)       (7.4)     (12.5)     (19.3)
  Purchases of property and equip.       (0.8)       (2.8)       (7.4)     (12.5)     (19.3)
  Others                                 (3.4)       (6.2)        -          -          -      Key assumptions
                                                                                                                                    2010A        2011E         2012E        2013E
Financing cashflow                        -          20.3       206.5        -             -   Growth
  Proceeds from IPO                       -           -         206.5        -             -    Revenue                                 79%        161%             69%       54%
  Others                                  -          20.3         -          -             -    Online advertising                     179%        192%             68%       55%
                                                                                                Internet value-added services          621%        148%             75%       52%
Cash at the beginning of year            23.3        28.1        60.5      270.1      317.8    Gross margin                             88%         89%             86%       85%
Cash at the end of year                  28.1        60.5       270.1      317.8      394.7     OPEX as % of revenue                    73%         74%             59%       57%
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Drill Down

              Financials, Product, Competition, Strategy




Back to Top
14



Qihoo 360                                                    Product: Browser with 65 games and
                                                             20mn users in Aug. 2011. Sales                          Key Revenue
                                                                                                                      Generators
Product Suite
                                                             generated via monthly subscription,
                                                             hourly rates &/or paid items.
                                                     Strategy: Gaming accounted for 18.8% of
                                                     Qihoo's Q2 revenue. Currently, most popular
                                                     games are 2D RPG's and strategy games, but
                                                     Qihoo is pushing into casual games.


                                                                                                                    Product: Simplifies
            Product: Interface that runs
                                                                                                                    installing/removing programs
            on top of the windows
                                                                                                                    on PC. Released Dec. 2006.
            desktop. Dresses up Windows
            to look and work like an iPad
                                                                                                           Strategy: No direct revenue, but serves
            and offers access to 100k
                                                                                                           as convenient conduit for new software.
apps from iPhone and Android app catalogs.                                                                 Constantly updates Qihoo's software to
10mn active users as of Aug. 2011.                                                                         improve stickiness, while offering wide
Strategy: Moves Qihoo 360 brand closer to                                                                  variety of software from third parties
entertainment and leverages access to                                                                      (though it favors Qihoo software). Has
consumers via direct links to Qihoo's other                                                                been mimicked by Tencent and Baidu.
revenue generating channels. Possible
future opportunities for syncing with
Qihoo's mobile software Safe-Guard, which                  Core product: Qihoo's strategy of
targets China’s growing smartphone base.                    giving away Safe Guard won it a
                                                            foothold on the PCs of more than
                                                          90% of China's Internet users. Since
                                                              its release in 2006, Qihoo has
                                                           followed up with numerous other
                                                              products aimed at monetizing
                                                                   its massive user base.


               Product: Smartphone version of
               Qihoo's safety suite. Released in
               Nov. 2009. #1 market share with                                                     Product: Basic browser and home page. Only
               58% of active users of mobile                                                       browser to take significant market share from
               security software in Jan. 2011.                                                     Internet Explorer, with 200mn users and a 35%
                                                                                                   market share based on actual usage.
   Strategy: Mobile software also free, as part of                                                 Strategy: Start-up page accounted for 77% of
   a land grab for China's growing smartphone                                                      revenue in Q2. Browser preset to use 360's start-
   market. Not expected to monetize until 2013.                                                    up page, which had 45mn unique visitors per day
   Syncs with Qihoo desktop software, allowing                                                     in June. Ad demand outpacing supply. Ad prices
   users to control phone software.                                                                determined by bidding system; prices increasing.
15


    Key Products Among Most Popular In China
      Trusted Partner: With 92%
      coverage of China’s Internet
      market (i.e. a user base of
                                                                                          Room for
      378mn active users), Qihoo 360                                                      user
      has saturated the Chinese PC                                                        growth
                                                                                          within
      safety market and is a considered
                                                                                          Qihoo’s
      a household name in China.                                                          existing
      However, the ‘Qihoo 360’ name is                                                    base.

      synonymous with ‘free antivirus’
      and thus Qihoo’s challenge is
      enticing its user base to try its
      other products & services.

      Next Step: The company has                                    Growth in Qihoo Key Products
      shown promising results gaining
      traction with its browser, which is
      the key source of its revenue via
      ads on the browser’s default
      start-up page. Qihoo needs to
      replicate this success with its
      gaming services and open
      platform desktop, which are in
      the early phases of introduction.

                                                                                                     15
Source: RedTech Advisors, iResearch, * Avg. daily unique visitors
in June 2011
16


Strategy Shifting Toward Diverse Monetization
Agency Model: Qihoo’s 360 Safe Guard and Software                       Qihoo’s Revenue Sources
Manager paved the way for Qihoo’s subsequent
releases. Until mid 2008, Qihoo made most of its
money by acting as an agent for antivirus companies
like Kaspersky.
Shift to Ads: In 2008, Qihoo launched its own
antivirus for free along with its 360 Safety Browser.
This marked a key shift toward monetizing its base
through advertising, mostly via paid links on the
browser’s landing page.
Platform Strategy: The company has nearly phased out revenue from third-party antivirus sales and now
receives ~95% of revenues from ads and gaming. It continues to build out the product suite to improve
monetization. Mobile security will be the next big opportunity, with a business model based on free and fee-based
premium services.




Key shift to ads model                                        Next big opportunity
17



Launch Pad – Qihoo’s Channels to Revenues
             Overview of Qihoo’s Revenue Generating Potential
18



        Qihoo Margins Will Remain Robust
    • We expect gross margins to hover
      around 85-89% for the immediate
      future, and edge down slightly to 85%
      beyond 2013 as a result of lower margin
      revenues diluting higher margin ad
      revenues.
    • SG&A as a % of revenue should decline
      YoY as revenue grows. The company had
      higher than normal marketing costs in
      2010 due to a marketing campaign
      highlighted by a commercial on CCTV.
      (See below). Money well spent as it saw
      a spike in users during the same period.
      We have modeled conservative opex as
      we expect some heavier spending in
      2012 to fend off Tencent.
    • R&D expenses should drop slightly but
      continue to stay in the 35-40% range.
      Of the 860 employees at Qihoo, 722
      were in R&D and only 88 in sales and
      marketing.

              Qihoo 360’s 2010 commercial on CCTV




                “360 Anti-Virus will always be Free!”
                                                        (1Q11A spike in Sales & Marketing due share based compensation.)
Source: Company, RedTech Advisors estimates
19


    The Core: Qihoo 360 Safe Guard                                                                    Q: How good is Qihoo
    • Qihoo 360’s security software isn’t just anti-virus. It’s more of a computer efficiency
      command center – akin to Tune-Up Utilities combined with anti-virus. For instance, Safe
                                                                                                      antivirus?
      Guard runs maintenance tasks more typically found in Microsoft’s control panel, such as
      defragmenting, while also taking care of more mainstream security tasks, such as scanning       A: Good enough.
      for malware. Its freebie status may get people interested, but it’s the ease of use and
                                                                                                      AV-Comparatives awarded
      effectiveness that keeps users loyal.
                                                                                                      Qihoo’s antivirus the same
                                                                                                      rating as Bit-Defender and
    • After Safeguard , Qihoo released an extension called the 360 Software Manager – basically
                                                                                                      McAfee. Some tests give
      a glorified browser with extensive listings of Qihoo and third-party software (akin to CNET’s
                                                                                                      Kingsoft and Kasperky products
      Download.com). The convenience comes from being able to download, install, update               slightly higher ratings, but the
      and/or uninstall all programs from within the manager. Of course, Qihoo ranks its software      difference is not enough to
      higher than others, a major catalyst for getting more Qihoo software onto user computers.       disrupt Qihoo’s leading position.
System Scan    Kill Trojans                PC Clean-up                     Software manager           Most of the IT professionals we
                               Bug Fix                     System Repair
                                                                                                      talked to use 360 on their
                                                                                                      personal PCs.


                                                                                                            Qihoo Awards List
                                                                                                                 China Internet Weekly
                                                                                                                 Editor’s Choice Award

                                                                                                                 Approved by
                                                                                                                 China Ministry of
                              The 360 Safe Guard interface. With a                                               Public Security
                              score of 97, this PC looks relatively
                              clean. The program suggests three                                                  Virus Bullentin’s
                              optimizations: Scan for worms (trojans),                                           VB 100 award
                              check for software updates, clean out
                              documents in the garbage.                                                          AV-Comparatives
                                                                                                                 Advanced Level

                                                                                                                 OPSWAT Bronze
                                                                                                                 Certification

                                                                                                                 West Coast Labs
                                                                                                                 ‘Checkmark’
20


   Browser Key Sales Conduit
                                                                         Safe Browser   Chrome Browser   iPad HD Browser    Android Mobile
    Lynchpin: Qihoo’s browser is integral to driving traffic to its                                                        Browser (Pending)
    portal, where clients pay to place text links to their sites. The                            Strengths
    browser also includes a search bar from which Qihoo earns
    referral fees, mainly from Google. Qihoo had partnered with         • Only browser to grab significant market share from
    Baidu, but they had a falling out and Qihoo is suing for              IE. Currently holds ~ 35% of the China market.
    $7.6mn in contested referral fees.                                  • Safe Guard prompts user to install browser.
                                                                        • Uses Trident (IE) and Webkit (Chrome) engines.
    Secure Position: China’s web browser market is still
    dominated by Microsoft, but new players like Qihoo are slowly         Many Chinese sites only load properly on Trident.
    eroding its position – down 10ppts in the last year to 50%.         • Syncs browser preferences with Qihoo account.
    Qihoo is second to Internet Explorer, with about 35% share,         • Auto updates to solve bugs and gradually introduce
    and based on user reviews and our tests of the competition            new functions
    (i.e. Baidu’s Beta Browser), Qihoo has a superior product that      • Early mover advantage. Released in 2008.
    should help it continue to gain market share.
                                                                                               Weaknesses
                Browser Market Share Determined by Usage

                                                                        • 360’s Safe Browsers reputation is based on safety. A
                                                                          publicized flaw in browser security breach could
                                                                          negate years of growth.

                                                                                              Opportunities
                                                                        • New Chrome & iPad versions add incremental gains.
                                                                        • Navigation bar contains links to Qihoo’s Gaming
                                                                          Center
                                                                                                  Threats
                                                                        • Constantly fending off competition. Sohu bundles
                                                                          browser with China’s most popular pinyin input tool.
                                                                          Baidu also entering the market.


Source: CNNIC & Redtech Estimates
21


     Cash Cow: 360 Start-up Page
      Simple but effective: Preset as the browser’s start-up page.
      There are links to Qihoo’s competitors and no blatant advertising
      aside from a few colored links. The landing page links to Qihoo’s
      key sub-pages: an e-Commerce aggregator site, a group buy
      aggregator site, and their online gaming site.
      Monetization: Start-up page adds comprised 64% of Qihoo’s
      Q211 sales, up from 46% in Q210.* Growth driven from
      increasing bid prices due to increasing page views. Qihoo heavily
      relies on e-commerce ads to drive revenue, so any softening there
      would be a substantial risk. That is unlikely to happen in the next
      few years as the popularity of online shopping increases and sites
      vie for traffic. Search referral revenue will increase on an absolute
      basis, but decline as a percentage of revenue.




                                                                                                          Google is default for
                                                       Qihoo’s portal                                     search referrals in
                                                       had 98mn users                                     browser, though it can
                                                       in January.                                        be easily changed.
                                                       Unique daily
                                                       visitors hit
   Above, Qihoo Group Buy aggregator.                  45mn in June,
   (Click here to view)                                up from 38mn in                                        Paid links: Unlike
     - Searchable by specific criteria.                March. Average                                         traditional banners,
     - Advertisers pay for positioning.                clicks per visitor                                     these are simple
                                                       hit 3.06 in June                                       text links that track
   Below, Qihoo’s e-Commerce aggregator.               up from 2.81 in                                        back to popular
   (Click here to view)                                March.                                                 websites, including
                                                                                                              Baidu, Sina,
                                                                                                              Netease, Youku,
                                                                                                              and RenRen. Sales
                                                                                                              generated via
                                                    Links to group buy,                                       bidding for ad
                                                    e-commerce and                                            position, not based
                                                    gaming sites.                                             on pay for
                                                                                                              performance.



*Qihoo’s Online Advertising in the SEC filings includes Search Referral commissions, which we excluded.
22



   How The Keyword Ad Model Works
     Qihoo does not charge ‘per click’ with advertisers, but charges monthly fees for links, priced on the most up-to-
     date traffic data. To ensure the end-user functionality of the landing page, Qihoo maintains the same ratio of ad-
     space across verticals, and then operates a closed bidding system within each vertical. For instance, the ad space
     in Local Food Deals of the Group Buy section is regionalized with an ad in the top four rows costing 50,000
     yuan/month in Beijing, and 20,000 yuan/month in Tianjin.


Signifies a click
                                                                        Start-up Page
  leaving the
 Start-up page                                                                     10% of                              33% of                 17% of
                                     40% of Ad Revenue*                          Ad Revenue                          Ad Revenue            Ad Revenue**



                                                                                                                                  Front   Search
              Group Buy                            E-Commerce                          Gaming                Personal             Page
                                                                                       Center                Interests            Links


                                  Link to
   Link to                        Retailer
   Retailer                                                                                                                               Search
                                                                                                                     Category   Link to
                                                                                                                                  Site    Results
                                                       Sub-Pages: i.e 360       In-Browser   Links to     Search       Sub-
      Search              Sub          Search                                                  Sites    Aggregator     Page
                                     Aggregator       rebates, luxury items,      Games
    Aggregator           Pages                       sales events, top Taobao
                                                              stores.

         End                              End                                   In-Game      Other         Link External
       Retailer                         Retailer                                Browser      Pages             to Site
                                                     Search          Listings
                         Search                    Aggregator          Page
                       Aggregator
                                                                                                 **(Including searches through Qihoo’s browser)
                    Link to End                       Link to End Retailer
                      Retailer


    *(Group Buy accounts for roughly 5% of the 40% )
23


 Start-up Page Popular Cash Model In China
  The landing page is a pretty standard and successful model in China. The two most cited reasons for users leaving
  landing pages are 1) Lack of Impartiality 2) Homogenization of content. Qihoo’s lack of presence in the search
  industry gives users the impression of impartiality relative to sites owned by search engines.

       hao123.com                          265.com                          2345.com                     hao.360.cn




Purchased by Baidu in 2004        Purchased by Google in 2007        Independent Landing Page      Qihoo 360’s Landing Page
                                                                         Founded in 2005

                                               Chinese Netizens Reviews:

Positive: Clean & neat, fast,   Positive: Includes standard        Positive: Straight forward    Positive: Standard layout,
one of the earliest landing     basic features of email, search,   layout, presenting weather…   good category specific searches
pages                           weather
                                                                   Negative: Relatively small    Negative: Using a .cn domain
                                Negative: Font is smaller than     number of URLs.               has drawbacks.
Negative: Relatively Few
Features.                       competitors, page is a little      Commentary: The domain
                                cramped                            name is easy to remember and Commentary: Many users view
Commentary: Baidu’s support                                                                     360’s landing page as an
                                                                   by far the easiest to type.
and it’s inherited users give   Commentary: Strong backing                                      independent alternative to
hao123.com top spot.            of Google and good flow.                                        Google & Baidu’s offerings
24



Gaming Portals
Secondary Driver
Web Page: Offering ranges from mini-games
to MMORPG, FPS to real time strategy, and
even some links to Cosplay and Anime sites.
Naturally, Qihoo promotes revenue-generating
games but it also realizes the market is full of
non-revenue generating games, which are
mostly pirated foreign games.
Qihoo lists all these games, but does not host
or pirate them – sending users instead to
websites like ali213.net or gamersky.com,
where gamers can find a torrent file to
download. Qihoo does a good job of keeping
its hands clean by not directly breaking any IP
laws, while still staying relevant to gamers by
acknowledging the massive pirated games
market in China. Qihoo does not create in-
house games.


                                                   Gaming Browser: Nothing revolutionary. Basically,
                                                   just a link on the desk top that opens up a browser to
                                                   select games. It eats up less memory than an internet
                                                   browser and has a few other features, such as a “boss
                                                   button,” but on the whole it’s ordinary and simply
                                                   another way to access games.
25



Gaming Risk/Reward                                                         Gaming Dominates IVAS
Positive: Healthy increase in registered
users in games center over last six
months, from 14.7mn to 20mn. Qihoo
makes money by splitting revenue with
game companies at a rate of roughly                                                                        52% (YoY)

65:35 (Qihoo:Developer). Fees are
generated from subscriptions and/or the
purchase of virtual items.                                                                     75% (YoY)

Negative: Qihoo isn’t a gaming company
with a strong understanding of that                                             147% (YoY)

market, so difficult to predict how quickly
this segment will accelerate, especially                            621%(YoY)

given that competition is increasing for
web-based and casual games from
specialists like Shanda and Tencent.


Gaming: Set to take off or destined for mediocrity?                       Qihoo Gaming Stats               Q211
Partnering with game developers to share revenues is the closest that     Qihoo Cut of Gaming Revenue
Qihoo has come to actual content creation. But based on Qihoo’s           (after 65:35 split)              $6.6mn
reported 20mn registered gamers, Qihoo’s revenue per gamer is low.        Total Gaming Revenue             $10mn
                                                                          20mn Registered Users            $0.5 per gamer
The success (or lack of) of Qihoo’s gaming endeavors could act as a           Rmb per gamer               3.42 yuan
canary in the coal mine for Qihoo’s future ventures. However, that            Average monthly spending    1.14 yuan
may be a shortsighted judgment. It seems that Qihoo’s management
had a false start with their initial strategy of pursuing a Blizzard Entertainment model for online gaming, and are now
recalibrating their sites on a Zynga approach via casual games. Regardless of your take on gaming as an indicator to
Qihoo’s future, gaming is currently Qihoo’s only viable revenue supplement to advertising and thus deserves
attention.
26


Qihoo 360 Desktop
Innovative: Turns desktop into a format
similar to an iPhone interface. Activating the
360 desktop in full screen mode replaces all
the Windows shortcuts with apps and creates
several screens, akin to the iPhone interface.
Users slide screens to search for shortcuts.

                    Strengths
• Has 10M users as of Aug. 2011.
• Direct Access to 100,000+ free apps, many
  coming from iPhone & Android catalogs. Sets the
  stage for Qihoo to become an apps store.
• First firm to creatively use the ‘desktop’
                                                                            Windows Desktop
  approach.
                                                      Sub-browser of ‘Tools’ to access
                  Weaknesses                          commonly used programs
                                                                                         Toggle between Windows
• Monetizing may prove challenging as Chinese                                            & 360 desktops
  users accustomed to free app stores.
• Reviews have been positive, but users complain
  platform lacks customizing options.

                                                                                                    Default sample widget
                  Opportunities
• Plans to start monetizing in 2012.
• Synch to 360 Mobile for cross platform app store.
• Positions Qihoo closer to the entertainment                                       Slide laterally to multiple
                                                                                    desktops, similar to iPad/iPhone
  delivery side of the internet.
                                                      Windows task bar remains

                     Threats
• Competition potentially coming from Tencent
                                                                               360 Desktop
  copycat product that recently hit the market.
27



       360 Mobile Safe: ‘The Next Frontier’
                           Opportunity: Of the roughly 860mn cell phones in China, about a sixth,             Available On:
                           143mn, are smartphones. This number is only going to grow, particularly as
                           handset makers start to focus on the lower end of the market.
        Strategy: Qihoo is replicating its free antivirus model to grab users in the growing
        smartphone market. According to a report from Qihoo in July 2011, about 8% of smart
                                                                                                            Supporting Software
        phones were found to be infected with some type of virus of malware. While these
        viruses may not be fatal to a cell phone, the lingering threat of some malware eating up              360 Ipad Hi-Def
        a users monthly data plan should be enough encouragement for a user to download                       Browser: Launched in
        Qihoo’s software.                                                                                     Aug. 2011

        Function: Monitors monthly data usage, blocks SMS spam, and deletes virus &                           Qihoo 360 Kouxin:
        malware. Qihoo’s software also synchronizes with Qihoo’s desktop software manager so                  Cross platform instant
        users can control application download and removal when synching their phones with                    messaging application.
        their PC.                                                                                             (Similar to “What’s App”)

        Monetization: We don’t see Qihoo monetizing Mobile Safe until late 2013. This may be                  360 Android Browser:
        expedited depending on the popularity of 360 desktop and app store, or pressure from                  Coming soon
        competitor Netqin, which also gives its software away but charges for updates and
        premium services.



                                              2009-2014 GAGR = 75%


                            Qihoo claims 52% of
                            active users.




                                                                                           Available on …




Source: Frost & Sullivan                                                                                               Source: iResearch, Jan 2011
28


Products Geared Toward Leverage
                                   Software
                                    & App           Internet
                                   Managers         Browsing




                        360 Safe   360 Software
                         Guard       Manager         360 Web      360 Anti-
                                                      Shield        Virus
    Device Safety


                          360                                      360 File
                                   360 Mobile     360 E-Commerce Compression
                        Safe Box   Safe Guard        Bodyguard




                                                      360 iPad
                                                     HD Browser




                     Gaming           360            360 Start-           360
                                    Desktop             up              Gaming
                                                       Page             Browser




                                                    360 Safe
                                                    Browser




  360 Open ID: 360’s webpage & browser sign-in is
  used to register on 3rd party websites, such as Group
  buy sites that advertise on Qihoo’s website.
29




Competition

              Tencent, Kingsoft, Netqin




Back to Top
30


Tencent-Kingsoft Combo Biggest Threat
• Tencent & Kingsoft: Kingsoft’s anitvirus software was released in 2002 and is still well regarded. However, consumers were
  not willing to pay for something Qihoo gives them for free. So in Nov. 2010, Kingsoft capitulated and started giving its
  antivirus away, too. Yet, by then the once dominant Kingsoft had shrunk to a 14.6% market share. In July 2011, Tencent
  bought a 15% stake in Kingsoft, hoping to strengthen its offering to the more than 300mn-plus PC users that already have
  Tencent’s software installed on their PCs. A key figure to watch in the coming year, is the adoption rate of the package set of
  QQ software manager and Kingsoft’s Anti-virus. This combo is the most likely competitor to erode Qihoo’s core user base,
  and could represent a significant threat to Qihoo’s future growth.
• Rising: Rising still holds 11% of the domestic market, and as of March 2011, it’s free. It’s internet security program and
  anti-spyware received the same Bronze rating as Qihoo from Opswat. Rising has also released a browser, though it hasn’t
  gained significant market share.




                                                                                                                            30
31


Tencent Already Replicating Desktop App
• Tencent’s Q+: At the end of 2010, Tencent announced development plans for ‘an open QQ interface’. It launched in
  May, 2011, two months after 360’s desktop, and is pretty much a copycat in typical Tencent fashion.
• The key difference between Qihoo’s 360 Desktop and Tencent’s Q+ is the social aspect tied into Q+. It allows users to
  seamlessly tie in social aspects into their games, while Qihoo’s apps do not. In other words, Q+ can use Tencent’s social
  leverage (i.e. Qzone, Pengyou, Weibo and QQ IM) to link members together for group games or other entertainment,
  similar to Facebook. Qihoo will need to form partnerships with other SNS sites to substantially improve its SNS feature.

                                                            Q+                                                  360 Desktop

         Use of RAM              ~17MB                                                       ~17MB

         User Interface          Mediocre (lacks pre-loaded features)                        Above Average. Smoother interface than Q+. Much
                                                                                             better job of recommending apps

         Number of Apps          Few (so far majority are Q+. Q+ has yet to cultivate        Tons, ~100,000, majority recycled from app-
                                 the ‘open’ environment it promised developers)              platform catalogues

         Quality of Apps         Satisfactory                                                Mediocre (Majority are mini-games)

         SNS capability          High, sync with QQ account                                  Low

         Room for expansion      Merge with QQ’s services                                    Yet to be seen how Qihoo will integrate with other
                                                                                             360 products

Similar side bar      Tencent’s Q+ Desktop                    Widgits
                                                                                                       Qihoo’s 360 Desktop



                                                                                                           Toggle between
                                                                                                           Windows Desktop


                                                                                                                                                  Widgits




                                                                                        Similar side bar
          Toggle between Windows Desktop




                                                                        31
32




Management

              Key Execs & VIE Structure




Back to Top
33


 In Your Face Management
 ‘My Job In China Is To Kick Google’s Ass*’: Qihoo founder Zhou Hongyi is one of
 the most colorful characters among China’s Internet aristocracy. He’s traded blows
 with Google (and lost) and Alibaba’s Jack Ma (and won) and Tencent’s Pony Ma (a
 draw). He first gained attention as the founder of 3721.com, a search firm bought by
 Yahoo for $120mn (cash) in late 2003. He and his inner circle then ran Yahoo China
 until being forced out by Jack Ma in 2005 when Alibaba took control of Yahoo China.
 Miraculously, Qihoo was up and running nearly overnight – accusations still linger
 that Zhou personally paid engineering teams he oversaw at Yahoo to moonlight on
 Qihoo. In a jab at Yahoo and Ma, Qihoo’s security software labeled the 3721/Yahoo
 software as malware and encouraged users to delete it. The ensuing public finger
 pointing between Yahoo and Qihoo created a media blitz of coverage. Qihoo came out           The rhyming of Qihoo &
 of it relatively unscathed in the public’s eye, but Yahoo, and more importantly, Jack        Yahoo is no coincidence.
 Ma has not forgotten. This type of combativeness is a trademark of Zhou.


Qihoo Chairman & CEO Zhou Hongyi                                                                     Media Coverage of
                                                                                                     Qihoo-Yahoo conflict
                  • Born: 1970, Hubei Province
                                                                                                     Naturally the Chinese tech-
                  • Education: Masters in Computer                                                   media loved the story line
                    Engineering from Xian Jiaotong University.                                       and had a field day with it. In
                  • Founder of 3721.com                                                              the cartoon above Zhou
                  • President of Yahoo China Mar.’04-Aug. ‘06                                        Hongyi gestures at Jack Ma.
                                                                                                     The adjacent magazine title
                  • Partner at IDG Venture Capital
                                                                                                     reads “Zhuo Hongyi: I am not
                  • Deep ties with in China’s VC network                                             a hypocrite”.


                               Qihoo’s Inner Circle From 3721 & Yahoo China
            Qi Xiangdong                                     Shi Xiaohong                                    Shu Cao
            President of Qihoo 360                           VP of Technology                                Chief Engineer
            Formerly:                                        Formerly:                                       Formerly:
            • VP of Yahoo China                              • CTO of Yahoo China,                           • Chief Engineer of Yahoo China
            • GM of 3721.com                                 • CTO & Co-founder of 3721.com                  • Co-founder of 3721.com
            • Vice Bureau Chief for Technology,
            Xinhua (government news agency)
                                                                                                                         *Source: Danwei.org
34


Qihoo Is No Stranger To Conflict
                    At War with Tencent
                     Oct, 2010: Affectionately refferred to as the “The 3Q War”,
                     Qihoo 360 and Tencent had a public battle that stemmed
from allegations of privacy issues, and turned into a deadlock forcing users to
choose one of the companies.
In brief, a Qihoo suggested that Tencent’s QQ program may be scanning personal
user files, and Tencent countered that Qihoos browser was misdirecting its clients
to questionable sites.
In the coming month the mud-slinging escalated to lawsuits, and then users were
forced to choose between Qihoo’s safety software or Tencent’s instant messenger
QQ. At this point, the Ministry of Information and Technology ordered both sides
to resolve the software conflicts and cease all negative statements.


                 Weibo Clash
                 May, 2010: Kingsoft’s CEO ‘tweeted’ on his Weibo account that Qihoo was behaving in an unscrupulous
                 manner. Qihoo’s CEO Zhou Hongyi retorted via his weibo account “so sue me.” Kingsoft did. Zhou Hongyi
                 lost a reputation infringement case and had to pay roughly US$12,000 in damages to Kingsoft and had to
                 post apologies on his Weibo account for a week. Kingsoft’s unfair competitive practice suit is still pending,
                 as is Qihoo’s counter suit. These lawsuits are mostly for theater. Lawsuits of this nature rarely have a
                 strong ruling in China and will unlikely have any material affect on Qihoo’s operation.

                 Suing Baidu
                 May, 2010: Qihoo filed a breach of contract claim against Baidu for
                                                                                                          Suing Rising
                 unpaid search results, asking for US$7.6mn in damages, losses and                        Feb, 2010: Qihoo is
                 interest. Baidu filed a counter claim for US$1.6mn. $7.6mn would’ve                      suing Rising for
                 been equal to 24% of Qihoo’s 2009 revenue, significantly more than                       misleading users into
                 Google during that period.                                                               thinking that 360 Safe
                                                                                                          Guard poses security
                 Qihoo currently does not have an agreement in place with Baidu for                       risks. This case is
                 search referrals, but Qihoo still keeps Baidu listed on search bar on the                pending and we do not
                 start-up page for user’s convenience. If Qihoo can come to an amicable                   believe that Qihoo will
                 agreement with Baidu, it could quickly give Qihoo’s top line a boost in                  obtain any significant
                 the realm of 10% (conservatively based Google’s contribution to                          settlement.
                 Qihoo’s revenue). Unlike Qihoo’s other quarrels, this one has stayed
                 out of the media limelight, and is worth following closely.
35


   Corp Structure & Management Ownership
Management Stake: 39.5%
Zhou Hongyi, CEO: 18.6%
Qi Xiangdong, President: 10.8%
Cao Shu, Chief Engineer: 7.1%                                    Qihoo 360 Technology Co., Ltd.
Shi Xiaohong, VP Technology: 3.8%                                      (Cayman Islands)



                                                              100%                                    100%                                   100%

                                               360 International                      Qifei International                       Qiji International
                                            Development Co. Limited                Development Co. Limited                    Development Limited
                                                  (Hong Kong)                            (Hong Kong)                              (Hong Kong)



                                                                                 Outside PRC

                                       100%
                                                                                  Inside PRC
                           Qizhi Software
                          (Beijing) Co., Ltd.




     Beijing Qihu Technology                         Beijing Qihu Network Technology                           Five Other VIE’s
     Company Limited (PRC)                                Computer Limited (PRC)                                    (PRC)




     Contractual arrangements consisting of equity disposition agreements, loan agreements, equity pledge agreements, business operation agreements,
     technology development agreements and power of attorney.
THE CHINA TECH LETTER



                       Thanks!
                michael.clendenin@redtechadvisors.com
                     inquiry@redtechadvisors.com
                         +86 21 6248 3975




Research by …

                                                        Back to Top

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Red Tech Deep Dive on Qihoo

  • 1. THE CHINA TECH LETTER Qihoo 360 China’s Antivirus King Is Just Starting To Cash In Research by …
  • 2. Report Highlights 2 Access To Nearly Every PC In China Chapters • 378mn Users: Every PC user in China needs what Qihoo has – security software. They want it for free, too, and Qihoo obliges. That’s made Qihoo second only to Tencent’s QQ messenger in terms of popularity with Chinese PC users, and given the scrappy underdog the nerve to directly challenge Tencent. • More Than Security: Qihoo’s extensive offering of software, portals and emerging cloud services is repositioning the company as a command center for the Web in China. It’s the starting point for users to 1. Quick View set up their PCs, a hub for cataloging and synchronizing content and apps among devices, and a launching pad for safely surfing the Web. 2. Drill Down Monetization Is Solidly Underway • Ads To Start: Qihoo collects ~75% of its revenue from ads placed on the default start-up page of its 3. Competition browser – a big change from three years ago when it made its money by selling security software. But by making its core software free, and bundling it with a browser, Qihoo now has access to a much larger user base that advertisers value. The 360 Browser is the second most popular in China behind Internet Explorer, 4. Management and the default start-up page, hao360.cn, had 45mn unique daily visitors in June, or about 10% of China’s Internet users. • Games: Though PC-based ads will serve it well in the near term, Qihoo is also promoting its open platform for web-based gaming as an alternative channel for monetizing its user base. Games generate revenue through in-game ads and the sale of virtual items, of which Qihoo takes a 65% cut. • Mobile Next: Qihoo already captures 58% of the active users of mobile security software in China. The firm is using its tried-and-true strategy of giving away the security software in order to get itself onto as many smartphones as possible, after which we believe it will begin monetization by placing text link ads on its bundled browser and by offering premium, fee-based security services. Plenty Of Room For Growth • Opportunity: Qihoo is already profitable and is still growing fast – revenue up 161% in 2011e. The firm currently trades at 37x our 2012 earnings forecast of $0.64 (non-GAAP), making it much more attractive than some of the other recent Chinese IPOs. The firm is creating a highly leveraged software and services platform based on trust and convenience – enviable assets when dealing with consumers -- and many view its product as a necessity, much like Tencent’s QQ or Baidu’s search tools. This gives it enormous potential to push new products to an increasingly savvy and demanding Net surfer in China. • Risk: Qihoo founder Zhou Hong-yi is a hard knocks entrepreneur unafraid to pick a fight. This has made Qihoo lots of enemies, the most powerful being Tencent. Already, the firm is working to erode Qihoo’s influence by investing in its closest rival, Kingsoft, and by blatantly copying one of its more innovative products, a GUI overlay for Windows that makes the desktop operate like an iPhone. If Tencent is able to successfully eat into these two markets, it will slow the growth of Qihoo and increase its costs if it has to August 31, 2011 fight for the attention of consumers through additional marketing campaigns.
  • 4. 4 Qihoo Is A Strong, Scrappy Contender Thesis: We are positive about the Quick View long-term revenue growth opportunity at Qihoo. As China’s Founded 2005 leading software security firm, Qihoo Ticker QIHU. IPO 3/2011. Offered @ $14.50; opened @ $27. is used by nearly 380mn Internet 2011: ~$151mn, up 161% YoY users. The 360 Safe Guard product Revenue isn’t the most robust, but it’s good 2012: $255mn, up 68% YoY enough and the price (free) is right. Target Audience PC and smartphone users. Consumers trust it, making them loyal and giving Qihoo a beachhead User base 378mn active users, ~92% of Chinese Net users on the PC matched only by Tencent’s Market ~85% PC; ~35% browser; ~60% smartphone Share popular QQ IM. We believe Qihoo is only at the early stages of monetizing its massive user base. By distributing related PC tools, like browsers and app aggregators, Qihoo will increase sales through ads and revenue sharing opportunities. Moreover, Qihoo is an early leader in the market for mobile security products just as China is starting to make its transition to smartphones. The next step is leveraging its advantage in PC and mobile to create cloud services and synch products that elevate the role of the 360 suite to an organizing point for all the digital content and clutter in a user’s life. We believe this will bind users even closer to Qihoo, thus increasing its influence among advertisers while also making it a more attractive partner for third party application developers. Risk To Our Thesis: Qihoo doesn’t just have competitors, it has hard-earned enemies. From Alibaba and Tencent, to Kingsoft and Netqin. Qihoo management, led by the controversial Zhou Hongyi, isn’t afraid to instigate a fight and then win it by questionable means. Even though it’s shown an ability to bloody the nose of industry heavyweights like Tencent and come out relatively unscathed, the company’s combative style will always be a risk for negative news flow that could spook investors. Other risks include a slowdown in advertising revenue, especially from the e-commerce sector, which represents 40% of ad sales and 30.5% of total revenue. Qihoo will also continue to face considerable competition in antivirus, browsers, gaming and app distribution.
  • 5. 5 Qihoo’s User Base Rivals Other Net Giants 710mn Measured by users. 378mn 370mn 278mn Tencent* Qihoo* Taobao** Sina** * By Active User Accounts. ** By Registered User Accounts Source: iResearch 2011.02
  • 6. 6 Ads Major Driver Of Strong Revenue Growth Google’s percentage of Qihoo’s revenues has decreased from 21% in 2010 to 11% in Q2 2011, although the absolute amount of revenue from Google has been increasing. Source: Company, RedTech Advisors estimates
  • 7. 7 Qihoo SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses  Huge, loyal user base of security software.  Search engine referral commissions come  Reputation for safety & reliability plays well mainly from Google. Baidu and Qihoo are into new markets. locked in a court battle over past fees.  Qihoo’s web browser is the only successful  e-Commerce accounts for 40% of ads competitor to Internet Explorer in China. revenue. Any drop in client spending there would have a significant impact.  Ad client base at 210 and growing. Top 5 customers account for 35% of revenue in  Qihoo & CEO Zhou Hongyi have made 2010. many enemies, which may limit partnerships.  Profitable. $308mn on balance sheet,  User base still unproven as a cash cow. which positions it for acquisitions. Consumers use Qihoo products in part to avoid ads. Opportunities Threats  Ad revenue just starting to take off. User  Baidu and Tencent want to be bigger base relatively untapped for direct players in the PC safety market, the monetization via games, e-commerce, etc. cornerstone of Qihoo’s success. Tencent already copying Qihoo’s desktop app.  Gaming starting to gain momentum.  In mobile, rival Netqin (invested by  Mobile product can offer fee-based Qualcomm and Mediatek) will try to displace premium services (but not till 2013/14). Qihoo, threatening a huge future revenue  Strong potential to further bind users by source. integrating and simplifying the management  The company is built upon its reputation of software and content across the PC, for safety and integrity – not flashy products mobile and app store. or services. One crisis could be disastrous.
  • 8. 8 Recent Performance • Strong in August: Qihoo outperformed the major US indexes in August, ending the month with a 3.25% gain MRQ Quick Read 2Q10 2Q11 YoY Change against declines of 6.41% in the NASDAQ, 5.67% for the Total net revenues (US$mn) 12.7 35.1 177% S&P 500 and 4.36% for the Dow Jones. Online advertising 8.5 26.8 216% • Valuation: At $23.80, Qihoo trades at ~70x our 2011 Internet value-added services 3.1 8.1 159% earnings estimate of $0.34 and 37x our 2012 estimate of Gross profit 11.2 31.4 180% $0.64 (non-GAAP). This is no value stock for sure, but Gross profit margin 88.3% 89.5% 1.2ppt we are bullish on its growth prospects and would be buyers on any weakness, especially below $20. Income (loss) from operations 2.4 12.7 434% Operating margin 19% 36% 17.5ppt • Volatility: During last two months, mostly trading in the $20-$25 range, with a short-lived dip below $20 in Net Income (loss) 2.2 11.1 410% August before its earnings announcement, which handily Net margin 17% 32% 14.5ppt beat its earlier (conservative) estimates. We expect to Non-GAAP Net Income 1.0 13.2 1199% see more interest in the company as sell-side coverage Net Income per ADS (diluted) 0.05 0.09 80% increases and management hits the road in the Fall to better communicate its position and strategy in China. Non-GAAP Net Income per ADS (diluted) 0.02 0.11 358% 8 Source: Google
  • 9. 9 1-Month Performance: Qihoo up 3.8% in August. 5-week Performance: Qihoo outperforms security peers. Trend Micro: -5.4% NASDAQ: -9% Symantec: -9.9% Qihoo: -3.8% Kingsoft: -23.1% Source: Google
  • 10. 10 5-Week Performance: Qihoo outperforms most of China Internet Peers. NASDAQ: -6.7% Tencent: -11.9% Baidu: -1.6% Qihoo: -3.1% Kingsoft: -21.9% RennRenn: -33% Youku: -24.1% 3-Month Performance: Qihoo performs well against China Internet Peers. Kingsoft: -2.9% Baidu: +7.4% NASDAQ: -9% Tencent: -17.4% Qihoo: -8.8% RennRenn: -42.9% Youku: -40.7% Source: Google
  • 11. 11 Outlook: Positive Stock Data Ticker QIHU US ADS O/S (mn) 1 23.4 Market Cap (mn) $ 2,93 7 Market price $ 23.80 52-Week Range (US$) 16 .0 1 - 36.2 1 A vg Daily Vol (3 Mo, mn shares) 0.9 Performance W TD 1 week 4 week YTD F ree float (%) 59 % Absol ute 6% 1% 14% -30% Hong yi Zhou, Major shareholders Relative 2% -3% 18% -23% Xiangdong Qi Financial Data FY Dec (US$mn, except per share data) 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E Revenue 17 32 58 151 255 393 Y/Y NA 91 % 79 % 161 % 69 % 54 % Gross Profit 9 24 51 134 220 333 GM % 51 % 74 % 88 % 89 % 86 % 85 % Operating Profit (3) 4 9 22 71 109 OM % -18 % 14 % 16 % 15 % 28 % 28 % Pre tax net (3) 5 9 24 72 110 PTM % -17 % 14 % 16 % 16 % 28 % 28 % NPAT (3) 4 9 15 61 93 NPAT % -16 % 13 % 15 % 10 % 24 % 24 % Y/Y NA -253 % 104 % 76 % 307 % 53 % D iluted EPS (0.0 7) 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.33 0.50 GAAP EPADS (0.11) 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.50 0.76 Non GAAP diluted EPS (0.0 5) 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.43 0.65 Non GAAP EPADS (0.08) 0.09 0.20 0.34 0.64 0.98 P/E (x) on GAAP EPADS NM 488 .1 317 .3 192 .4 48 .0 31 .5 P/E (x) on non-GAAP EPADS NM 256.1 119.5 70.0 37.3 24.3 ROE (%) NM 154 % 12 % 5% 17 % 21 % Net debt (net cash)/equity (%) NM NM 2223 % 92 % 89 % 88 % Source: RedTech Advisors estimates
  • 12. 12 COMPARABLES EPADS - EPS P/E P/S PEG Name Ticker Share price Market cap Currency Gross margin 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 2012E 2012E Qihoo 3 60 QIHU 23.8 2.94B USD 89.5% 0.34 0.64 70.0 37.3 12 0.1 Baidu BIDU 145.78 50.87B USD 74.2% 2.9 4.37 50.3 33.4 15 0.4 Symantec SYMC 17.15 12.86B USD 84.3% 1.64 1.82 10.5 9.4 1.8 0.9 Kingsoft 388 8 HK 0.53 0.6B USD 86.8% 0.04 0.05 13.2 11.1 3.5 0.6 Tencent 070 0 HK 24.11 44.2B USD 65.4% 0.75 0.96 32.3 25.1 9.5 0.7 Profit & Loss Balance Sheet FY ends Dec 31 (Figures in US$) 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E Current assets 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E Revenue 32.3 57.7 150.7 254.9 393.0 Cash and cash equivalents 60.5 270.1 317.8 394.7 Online advertising 13.9 38.8 113.2 189.8 294.6 Accounts receivable 8.2 21.3 36.1 55.6 Internet value-added services 2.1 14.8 36.6 64.1 97.4 Other current assets 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 Others 16.3 4.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Cost of revenues 8.4 6.8 17.1 34.9 59.6 Non-current assets Gross profit 23.9 50.9 133.6 220.0 333.4 Property and equipment. Net 3.3 4.5 5.7 5.9 Operating expenditure Long term investment 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Research and development (10.7) (24.5) (56.4) (86.8) (133.9) Other non-current assets 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 Sales and marketing (6.3) (12.6) (39.4) (36.8) (51.1) Total assets 87.8 311.8 375.4 472.1 General and administrative (2.5) (5.1) (16.1) (25.7) (39.6) Operating profit 4.5 9.0 21.9 70.7 109.0 Current liabilities Income tax expenses (0.4) (0.5) (8.9) (10.8) (16.5) Accounts payable 1.4 3.6 6.1 9.5 Net profit attr. to shareholders 2.1 5.5 15.3 61.1 93.3 Others 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 Non-current liabilities 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Cash Flow Operating cashflow 9.0 20.1 10.5 60.2 96.2 Convertible preferred shares 70.2 - - - Net income 4.2 8.5 15.3 61.1 93.3 Depreciation & amortization 4.1 1.3 6.2 11.3 19.1 Additional paid in capital 12.6 289.2 289.2 289.2 Change in working capital (1.5) 6.3 (10.9) (12.2) (16.2) Retained earnings (13.6) 1.6 62.8 156.1 Others 2.2 4.0 - - - Noncontrolling interest 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Total equity,preferred shares 2.7 294.7 355.8 449.1 Investing cashflow (4.2) (9.1) (7.4) (12.5) (19.3) Purchases of property and equip. (0.8) (2.8) (7.4) (12.5) (19.3) Others (3.4) (6.2) - - - Key assumptions 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E Financing cashflow - 20.3 206.5 - - Growth Proceeds from IPO - - 206.5 - - Revenue 79% 161% 69% 54% Others - 20.3 - - - Online advertising 179% 192% 68% 55% Internet value-added services 621% 148% 75% 52% Cash at the beginning of year 23.3 28.1 60.5 270.1 317.8 Gross margin 88% 89% 86% 85% Cash at the end of year 28.1 60.5 270.1 317.8 394.7 OPEX as % of revenue 73% 74% 59% 57%
  • 13. 13 Drill Down Financials, Product, Competition, Strategy Back to Top
  • 14. 14 Qihoo 360 Product: Browser with 65 games and 20mn users in Aug. 2011. Sales Key Revenue Generators Product Suite generated via monthly subscription, hourly rates &/or paid items. Strategy: Gaming accounted for 18.8% of Qihoo's Q2 revenue. Currently, most popular games are 2D RPG's and strategy games, but Qihoo is pushing into casual games. Product: Simplifies Product: Interface that runs installing/removing programs on top of the windows on PC. Released Dec. 2006. desktop. Dresses up Windows to look and work like an iPad Strategy: No direct revenue, but serves and offers access to 100k as convenient conduit for new software. apps from iPhone and Android app catalogs. Constantly updates Qihoo's software to 10mn active users as of Aug. 2011. improve stickiness, while offering wide Strategy: Moves Qihoo 360 brand closer to variety of software from third parties entertainment and leverages access to (though it favors Qihoo software). Has consumers via direct links to Qihoo's other been mimicked by Tencent and Baidu. revenue generating channels. Possible future opportunities for syncing with Qihoo's mobile software Safe-Guard, which Core product: Qihoo's strategy of targets China’s growing smartphone base. giving away Safe Guard won it a foothold on the PCs of more than 90% of China's Internet users. Since its release in 2006, Qihoo has followed up with numerous other products aimed at monetizing its massive user base. Product: Smartphone version of Qihoo's safety suite. Released in Nov. 2009. #1 market share with Product: Basic browser and home page. Only 58% of active users of mobile browser to take significant market share from security software in Jan. 2011. Internet Explorer, with 200mn users and a 35% market share based on actual usage. Strategy: Mobile software also free, as part of Strategy: Start-up page accounted for 77% of a land grab for China's growing smartphone revenue in Q2. Browser preset to use 360's start- market. Not expected to monetize until 2013. up page, which had 45mn unique visitors per day Syncs with Qihoo desktop software, allowing in June. Ad demand outpacing supply. Ad prices users to control phone software. determined by bidding system; prices increasing.
  • 15. 15 Key Products Among Most Popular In China Trusted Partner: With 92% coverage of China’s Internet market (i.e. a user base of Room for 378mn active users), Qihoo 360 user has saturated the Chinese PC growth within safety market and is a considered Qihoo’s a household name in China. existing However, the ‘Qihoo 360’ name is base. synonymous with ‘free antivirus’ and thus Qihoo’s challenge is enticing its user base to try its other products & services. Next Step: The company has Growth in Qihoo Key Products shown promising results gaining traction with its browser, which is the key source of its revenue via ads on the browser’s default start-up page. Qihoo needs to replicate this success with its gaming services and open platform desktop, which are in the early phases of introduction. 15 Source: RedTech Advisors, iResearch, * Avg. daily unique visitors in June 2011
  • 16. 16 Strategy Shifting Toward Diverse Monetization Agency Model: Qihoo’s 360 Safe Guard and Software Qihoo’s Revenue Sources Manager paved the way for Qihoo’s subsequent releases. Until mid 2008, Qihoo made most of its money by acting as an agent for antivirus companies like Kaspersky. Shift to Ads: In 2008, Qihoo launched its own antivirus for free along with its 360 Safety Browser. This marked a key shift toward monetizing its base through advertising, mostly via paid links on the browser’s landing page. Platform Strategy: The company has nearly phased out revenue from third-party antivirus sales and now receives ~95% of revenues from ads and gaming. It continues to build out the product suite to improve monetization. Mobile security will be the next big opportunity, with a business model based on free and fee-based premium services. Key shift to ads model Next big opportunity
  • 17. 17 Launch Pad – Qihoo’s Channels to Revenues Overview of Qihoo’s Revenue Generating Potential
  • 18. 18 Qihoo Margins Will Remain Robust • We expect gross margins to hover around 85-89% for the immediate future, and edge down slightly to 85% beyond 2013 as a result of lower margin revenues diluting higher margin ad revenues. • SG&A as a % of revenue should decline YoY as revenue grows. The company had higher than normal marketing costs in 2010 due to a marketing campaign highlighted by a commercial on CCTV. (See below). Money well spent as it saw a spike in users during the same period. We have modeled conservative opex as we expect some heavier spending in 2012 to fend off Tencent. • R&D expenses should drop slightly but continue to stay in the 35-40% range. Of the 860 employees at Qihoo, 722 were in R&D and only 88 in sales and marketing. Qihoo 360’s 2010 commercial on CCTV “360 Anti-Virus will always be Free!” (1Q11A spike in Sales & Marketing due share based compensation.) Source: Company, RedTech Advisors estimates
  • 19. 19 The Core: Qihoo 360 Safe Guard Q: How good is Qihoo • Qihoo 360’s security software isn’t just anti-virus. It’s more of a computer efficiency command center – akin to Tune-Up Utilities combined with anti-virus. For instance, Safe antivirus? Guard runs maintenance tasks more typically found in Microsoft’s control panel, such as defragmenting, while also taking care of more mainstream security tasks, such as scanning A: Good enough. for malware. Its freebie status may get people interested, but it’s the ease of use and AV-Comparatives awarded effectiveness that keeps users loyal. Qihoo’s antivirus the same rating as Bit-Defender and • After Safeguard , Qihoo released an extension called the 360 Software Manager – basically McAfee. Some tests give a glorified browser with extensive listings of Qihoo and third-party software (akin to CNET’s Kingsoft and Kasperky products Download.com). The convenience comes from being able to download, install, update slightly higher ratings, but the and/or uninstall all programs from within the manager. Of course, Qihoo ranks its software difference is not enough to higher than others, a major catalyst for getting more Qihoo software onto user computers. disrupt Qihoo’s leading position. System Scan Kill Trojans PC Clean-up Software manager Most of the IT professionals we Bug Fix System Repair talked to use 360 on their personal PCs. Qihoo Awards List China Internet Weekly Editor’s Choice Award Approved by China Ministry of The 360 Safe Guard interface. With a Public Security score of 97, this PC looks relatively clean. The program suggests three Virus Bullentin’s optimizations: Scan for worms (trojans), VB 100 award check for software updates, clean out documents in the garbage. AV-Comparatives Advanced Level OPSWAT Bronze Certification West Coast Labs ‘Checkmark’
  • 20. 20 Browser Key Sales Conduit Safe Browser Chrome Browser iPad HD Browser Android Mobile Lynchpin: Qihoo’s browser is integral to driving traffic to its Browser (Pending) portal, where clients pay to place text links to their sites. The Strengths browser also includes a search bar from which Qihoo earns referral fees, mainly from Google. Qihoo had partnered with • Only browser to grab significant market share from Baidu, but they had a falling out and Qihoo is suing for IE. Currently holds ~ 35% of the China market. $7.6mn in contested referral fees. • Safe Guard prompts user to install browser. • Uses Trident (IE) and Webkit (Chrome) engines. Secure Position: China’s web browser market is still dominated by Microsoft, but new players like Qihoo are slowly Many Chinese sites only load properly on Trident. eroding its position – down 10ppts in the last year to 50%. • Syncs browser preferences with Qihoo account. Qihoo is second to Internet Explorer, with about 35% share, • Auto updates to solve bugs and gradually introduce and based on user reviews and our tests of the competition new functions (i.e. Baidu’s Beta Browser), Qihoo has a superior product that • Early mover advantage. Released in 2008. should help it continue to gain market share. Weaknesses Browser Market Share Determined by Usage • 360’s Safe Browsers reputation is based on safety. A publicized flaw in browser security breach could negate years of growth. Opportunities • New Chrome & iPad versions add incremental gains. • Navigation bar contains links to Qihoo’s Gaming Center Threats • Constantly fending off competition. Sohu bundles browser with China’s most popular pinyin input tool. Baidu also entering the market. Source: CNNIC & Redtech Estimates
  • 21. 21 Cash Cow: 360 Start-up Page Simple but effective: Preset as the browser’s start-up page. There are links to Qihoo’s competitors and no blatant advertising aside from a few colored links. The landing page links to Qihoo’s key sub-pages: an e-Commerce aggregator site, a group buy aggregator site, and their online gaming site. Monetization: Start-up page adds comprised 64% of Qihoo’s Q211 sales, up from 46% in Q210.* Growth driven from increasing bid prices due to increasing page views. Qihoo heavily relies on e-commerce ads to drive revenue, so any softening there would be a substantial risk. That is unlikely to happen in the next few years as the popularity of online shopping increases and sites vie for traffic. Search referral revenue will increase on an absolute basis, but decline as a percentage of revenue. Google is default for Qihoo’s portal search referrals in had 98mn users browser, though it can in January. be easily changed. Unique daily visitors hit Above, Qihoo Group Buy aggregator. 45mn in June, (Click here to view) up from 38mn in Paid links: Unlike - Searchable by specific criteria. March. Average traditional banners, - Advertisers pay for positioning. clicks per visitor these are simple hit 3.06 in June text links that track Below, Qihoo’s e-Commerce aggregator. up from 2.81 in back to popular (Click here to view) March. websites, including Baidu, Sina, Netease, Youku, and RenRen. Sales generated via Links to group buy, bidding for ad e-commerce and position, not based gaming sites. on pay for performance. *Qihoo’s Online Advertising in the SEC filings includes Search Referral commissions, which we excluded.
  • 22. 22 How The Keyword Ad Model Works Qihoo does not charge ‘per click’ with advertisers, but charges monthly fees for links, priced on the most up-to- date traffic data. To ensure the end-user functionality of the landing page, Qihoo maintains the same ratio of ad- space across verticals, and then operates a closed bidding system within each vertical. For instance, the ad space in Local Food Deals of the Group Buy section is regionalized with an ad in the top four rows costing 50,000 yuan/month in Beijing, and 20,000 yuan/month in Tianjin. Signifies a click Start-up Page leaving the Start-up page 10% of 33% of 17% of 40% of Ad Revenue* Ad Revenue Ad Revenue Ad Revenue** Front Search Group Buy E-Commerce Gaming Personal Page Center Interests Links Link to Link to Retailer Retailer Search Category Link to Site Results Sub-Pages: i.e 360 In-Browser Links to Search Sub- Search Sub Search Sites Aggregator Page Aggregator rebates, luxury items, Games Aggregator Pages sales events, top Taobao stores. End End In-Game Other Link External Retailer Retailer Browser Pages to Site Search Listings Search Aggregator Page Aggregator **(Including searches through Qihoo’s browser) Link to End Link to End Retailer Retailer *(Group Buy accounts for roughly 5% of the 40% )
  • 23. 23 Start-up Page Popular Cash Model In China The landing page is a pretty standard and successful model in China. The two most cited reasons for users leaving landing pages are 1) Lack of Impartiality 2) Homogenization of content. Qihoo’s lack of presence in the search industry gives users the impression of impartiality relative to sites owned by search engines. hao123.com 265.com 2345.com hao.360.cn Purchased by Baidu in 2004 Purchased by Google in 2007 Independent Landing Page Qihoo 360’s Landing Page Founded in 2005 Chinese Netizens Reviews: Positive: Clean & neat, fast, Positive: Includes standard Positive: Straight forward Positive: Standard layout, one of the earliest landing basic features of email, search, layout, presenting weather… good category specific searches pages weather Negative: Relatively small Negative: Using a .cn domain Negative: Font is smaller than number of URLs. has drawbacks. Negative: Relatively Few Features. competitors, page is a little Commentary: The domain cramped name is easy to remember and Commentary: Many users view Commentary: Baidu’s support 360’s landing page as an by far the easiest to type. and it’s inherited users give Commentary: Strong backing independent alternative to hao123.com top spot. of Google and good flow. Google & Baidu’s offerings
  • 24. 24 Gaming Portals Secondary Driver Web Page: Offering ranges from mini-games to MMORPG, FPS to real time strategy, and even some links to Cosplay and Anime sites. Naturally, Qihoo promotes revenue-generating games but it also realizes the market is full of non-revenue generating games, which are mostly pirated foreign games. Qihoo lists all these games, but does not host or pirate them – sending users instead to websites like ali213.net or gamersky.com, where gamers can find a torrent file to download. Qihoo does a good job of keeping its hands clean by not directly breaking any IP laws, while still staying relevant to gamers by acknowledging the massive pirated games market in China. Qihoo does not create in- house games. Gaming Browser: Nothing revolutionary. Basically, just a link on the desk top that opens up a browser to select games. It eats up less memory than an internet browser and has a few other features, such as a “boss button,” but on the whole it’s ordinary and simply another way to access games.
  • 25. 25 Gaming Risk/Reward Gaming Dominates IVAS Positive: Healthy increase in registered users in games center over last six months, from 14.7mn to 20mn. Qihoo makes money by splitting revenue with game companies at a rate of roughly 52% (YoY) 65:35 (Qihoo:Developer). Fees are generated from subscriptions and/or the purchase of virtual items. 75% (YoY) Negative: Qihoo isn’t a gaming company with a strong understanding of that 147% (YoY) market, so difficult to predict how quickly this segment will accelerate, especially 621%(YoY) given that competition is increasing for web-based and casual games from specialists like Shanda and Tencent. Gaming: Set to take off or destined for mediocrity? Qihoo Gaming Stats Q211 Partnering with game developers to share revenues is the closest that Qihoo Cut of Gaming Revenue Qihoo has come to actual content creation. But based on Qihoo’s (after 65:35 split) $6.6mn reported 20mn registered gamers, Qihoo’s revenue per gamer is low. Total Gaming Revenue $10mn 20mn Registered Users $0.5 per gamer The success (or lack of) of Qihoo’s gaming endeavors could act as a Rmb per gamer 3.42 yuan canary in the coal mine for Qihoo’s future ventures. However, that Average monthly spending 1.14 yuan may be a shortsighted judgment. It seems that Qihoo’s management had a false start with their initial strategy of pursuing a Blizzard Entertainment model for online gaming, and are now recalibrating their sites on a Zynga approach via casual games. Regardless of your take on gaming as an indicator to Qihoo’s future, gaming is currently Qihoo’s only viable revenue supplement to advertising and thus deserves attention.
  • 26. 26 Qihoo 360 Desktop Innovative: Turns desktop into a format similar to an iPhone interface. Activating the 360 desktop in full screen mode replaces all the Windows shortcuts with apps and creates several screens, akin to the iPhone interface. Users slide screens to search for shortcuts. Strengths • Has 10M users as of Aug. 2011. • Direct Access to 100,000+ free apps, many coming from iPhone & Android catalogs. Sets the stage for Qihoo to become an apps store. • First firm to creatively use the ‘desktop’ Windows Desktop approach. Sub-browser of ‘Tools’ to access Weaknesses commonly used programs Toggle between Windows • Monetizing may prove challenging as Chinese & 360 desktops users accustomed to free app stores. • Reviews have been positive, but users complain platform lacks customizing options. Default sample widget Opportunities • Plans to start monetizing in 2012. • Synch to 360 Mobile for cross platform app store. • Positions Qihoo closer to the entertainment Slide laterally to multiple desktops, similar to iPad/iPhone delivery side of the internet. Windows task bar remains Threats • Competition potentially coming from Tencent 360 Desktop copycat product that recently hit the market.
  • 27. 27 360 Mobile Safe: ‘The Next Frontier’ Opportunity: Of the roughly 860mn cell phones in China, about a sixth, Available On: 143mn, are smartphones. This number is only going to grow, particularly as handset makers start to focus on the lower end of the market. Strategy: Qihoo is replicating its free antivirus model to grab users in the growing smartphone market. According to a report from Qihoo in July 2011, about 8% of smart Supporting Software phones were found to be infected with some type of virus of malware. While these viruses may not be fatal to a cell phone, the lingering threat of some malware eating up 360 Ipad Hi-Def a users monthly data plan should be enough encouragement for a user to download Browser: Launched in Qihoo’s software. Aug. 2011 Function: Monitors monthly data usage, blocks SMS spam, and deletes virus & Qihoo 360 Kouxin: malware. Qihoo’s software also synchronizes with Qihoo’s desktop software manager so Cross platform instant users can control application download and removal when synching their phones with messaging application. their PC. (Similar to “What’s App”) Monetization: We don’t see Qihoo monetizing Mobile Safe until late 2013. This may be 360 Android Browser: expedited depending on the popularity of 360 desktop and app store, or pressure from Coming soon competitor Netqin, which also gives its software away but charges for updates and premium services. 2009-2014 GAGR = 75% Qihoo claims 52% of active users. Available on … Source: Frost & Sullivan Source: iResearch, Jan 2011
  • 28. 28 Products Geared Toward Leverage Software & App Internet Managers Browsing 360 Safe 360 Software Guard Manager 360 Web 360 Anti- Shield Virus Device Safety 360 360 File 360 Mobile 360 E-Commerce Compression Safe Box Safe Guard Bodyguard 360 iPad HD Browser Gaming 360 360 Start- 360 Desktop up Gaming Page Browser 360 Safe Browser 360 Open ID: 360’s webpage & browser sign-in is used to register on 3rd party websites, such as Group buy sites that advertise on Qihoo’s website.
  • 29. 29 Competition Tencent, Kingsoft, Netqin Back to Top
  • 30. 30 Tencent-Kingsoft Combo Biggest Threat • Tencent & Kingsoft: Kingsoft’s anitvirus software was released in 2002 and is still well regarded. However, consumers were not willing to pay for something Qihoo gives them for free. So in Nov. 2010, Kingsoft capitulated and started giving its antivirus away, too. Yet, by then the once dominant Kingsoft had shrunk to a 14.6% market share. In July 2011, Tencent bought a 15% stake in Kingsoft, hoping to strengthen its offering to the more than 300mn-plus PC users that already have Tencent’s software installed on their PCs. A key figure to watch in the coming year, is the adoption rate of the package set of QQ software manager and Kingsoft’s Anti-virus. This combo is the most likely competitor to erode Qihoo’s core user base, and could represent a significant threat to Qihoo’s future growth. • Rising: Rising still holds 11% of the domestic market, and as of March 2011, it’s free. It’s internet security program and anti-spyware received the same Bronze rating as Qihoo from Opswat. Rising has also released a browser, though it hasn’t gained significant market share. 30
  • 31. 31 Tencent Already Replicating Desktop App • Tencent’s Q+: At the end of 2010, Tencent announced development plans for ‘an open QQ interface’. It launched in May, 2011, two months after 360’s desktop, and is pretty much a copycat in typical Tencent fashion. • The key difference between Qihoo’s 360 Desktop and Tencent’s Q+ is the social aspect tied into Q+. It allows users to seamlessly tie in social aspects into their games, while Qihoo’s apps do not. In other words, Q+ can use Tencent’s social leverage (i.e. Qzone, Pengyou, Weibo and QQ IM) to link members together for group games or other entertainment, similar to Facebook. Qihoo will need to form partnerships with other SNS sites to substantially improve its SNS feature. Q+ 360 Desktop Use of RAM ~17MB ~17MB User Interface Mediocre (lacks pre-loaded features) Above Average. Smoother interface than Q+. Much better job of recommending apps Number of Apps Few (so far majority are Q+. Q+ has yet to cultivate Tons, ~100,000, majority recycled from app- the ‘open’ environment it promised developers) platform catalogues Quality of Apps Satisfactory Mediocre (Majority are mini-games) SNS capability High, sync with QQ account Low Room for expansion Merge with QQ’s services Yet to be seen how Qihoo will integrate with other 360 products Similar side bar Tencent’s Q+ Desktop Widgits Qihoo’s 360 Desktop Toggle between Windows Desktop Widgits Similar side bar Toggle between Windows Desktop 31
  • 32. 32 Management Key Execs & VIE Structure Back to Top
  • 33. 33 In Your Face Management ‘My Job In China Is To Kick Google’s Ass*’: Qihoo founder Zhou Hongyi is one of the most colorful characters among China’s Internet aristocracy. He’s traded blows with Google (and lost) and Alibaba’s Jack Ma (and won) and Tencent’s Pony Ma (a draw). He first gained attention as the founder of 3721.com, a search firm bought by Yahoo for $120mn (cash) in late 2003. He and his inner circle then ran Yahoo China until being forced out by Jack Ma in 2005 when Alibaba took control of Yahoo China. Miraculously, Qihoo was up and running nearly overnight – accusations still linger that Zhou personally paid engineering teams he oversaw at Yahoo to moonlight on Qihoo. In a jab at Yahoo and Ma, Qihoo’s security software labeled the 3721/Yahoo software as malware and encouraged users to delete it. The ensuing public finger pointing between Yahoo and Qihoo created a media blitz of coverage. Qihoo came out The rhyming of Qihoo & of it relatively unscathed in the public’s eye, but Yahoo, and more importantly, Jack Yahoo is no coincidence. Ma has not forgotten. This type of combativeness is a trademark of Zhou. Qihoo Chairman & CEO Zhou Hongyi Media Coverage of Qihoo-Yahoo conflict • Born: 1970, Hubei Province Naturally the Chinese tech- • Education: Masters in Computer media loved the story line Engineering from Xian Jiaotong University. and had a field day with it. In • Founder of 3721.com the cartoon above Zhou • President of Yahoo China Mar.’04-Aug. ‘06 Hongyi gestures at Jack Ma. The adjacent magazine title • Partner at IDG Venture Capital reads “Zhuo Hongyi: I am not • Deep ties with in China’s VC network a hypocrite”. Qihoo’s Inner Circle From 3721 & Yahoo China Qi Xiangdong Shi Xiaohong Shu Cao President of Qihoo 360 VP of Technology Chief Engineer Formerly: Formerly: Formerly: • VP of Yahoo China • CTO of Yahoo China, • Chief Engineer of Yahoo China • GM of 3721.com • CTO & Co-founder of 3721.com • Co-founder of 3721.com • Vice Bureau Chief for Technology, Xinhua (government news agency) *Source: Danwei.org
  • 34. 34 Qihoo Is No Stranger To Conflict At War with Tencent Oct, 2010: Affectionately refferred to as the “The 3Q War”, Qihoo 360 and Tencent had a public battle that stemmed from allegations of privacy issues, and turned into a deadlock forcing users to choose one of the companies. In brief, a Qihoo suggested that Tencent’s QQ program may be scanning personal user files, and Tencent countered that Qihoos browser was misdirecting its clients to questionable sites. In the coming month the mud-slinging escalated to lawsuits, and then users were forced to choose between Qihoo’s safety software or Tencent’s instant messenger QQ. At this point, the Ministry of Information and Technology ordered both sides to resolve the software conflicts and cease all negative statements. Weibo Clash May, 2010: Kingsoft’s CEO ‘tweeted’ on his Weibo account that Qihoo was behaving in an unscrupulous manner. Qihoo’s CEO Zhou Hongyi retorted via his weibo account “so sue me.” Kingsoft did. Zhou Hongyi lost a reputation infringement case and had to pay roughly US$12,000 in damages to Kingsoft and had to post apologies on his Weibo account for a week. Kingsoft’s unfair competitive practice suit is still pending, as is Qihoo’s counter suit. These lawsuits are mostly for theater. Lawsuits of this nature rarely have a strong ruling in China and will unlikely have any material affect on Qihoo’s operation. Suing Baidu May, 2010: Qihoo filed a breach of contract claim against Baidu for Suing Rising unpaid search results, asking for US$7.6mn in damages, losses and Feb, 2010: Qihoo is interest. Baidu filed a counter claim for US$1.6mn. $7.6mn would’ve suing Rising for been equal to 24% of Qihoo’s 2009 revenue, significantly more than misleading users into Google during that period. thinking that 360 Safe Guard poses security Qihoo currently does not have an agreement in place with Baidu for risks. This case is search referrals, but Qihoo still keeps Baidu listed on search bar on the pending and we do not start-up page for user’s convenience. If Qihoo can come to an amicable believe that Qihoo will agreement with Baidu, it could quickly give Qihoo’s top line a boost in obtain any significant the realm of 10% (conservatively based Google’s contribution to settlement. Qihoo’s revenue). Unlike Qihoo’s other quarrels, this one has stayed out of the media limelight, and is worth following closely.
  • 35. 35 Corp Structure & Management Ownership Management Stake: 39.5% Zhou Hongyi, CEO: 18.6% Qi Xiangdong, President: 10.8% Cao Shu, Chief Engineer: 7.1% Qihoo 360 Technology Co., Ltd. Shi Xiaohong, VP Technology: 3.8% (Cayman Islands) 100% 100% 100% 360 International Qifei International Qiji International Development Co. Limited Development Co. Limited Development Limited (Hong Kong) (Hong Kong) (Hong Kong) Outside PRC 100% Inside PRC Qizhi Software (Beijing) Co., Ltd. Beijing Qihu Technology Beijing Qihu Network Technology Five Other VIE’s Company Limited (PRC) Computer Limited (PRC) (PRC) Contractual arrangements consisting of equity disposition agreements, loan agreements, equity pledge agreements, business operation agreements, technology development agreements and power of attorney.
  • 36. THE CHINA TECH LETTER Thanks! michael.clendenin@redtechadvisors.com inquiry@redtechadvisors.com +86 21 6248 3975 Research by … Back to Top