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Semelhante a Theory of Media Evolution (Ben Lerer, SXSW 2016)
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Theory of Media Evolution (Ben Lerer, SXSW 2016)
- 1. Hi, I’m Ben.
- 2. LET’S START AT THE BEGINNING In 59 B.C. The Roman Empire Published “Acta Diurna”...
- 3. Then some other stuff happened… ...THEN SOME OTHER STUFF HAPPENED
- 5. PERCENTAGE OF AMERICANS THAT OWN A TV
- 7. A CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY
- 8. A CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY: THE NEW PIPE OWNERS
- 9. CABLE PENETRATION 1 16 53 Growth of Cable Subscriptions, in Millions
- 10. 2 Hours, 54 Minutes 4 Hours, 20 Minutes Hours Spent Watching TV, Daily ...LEADS TO A CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Estimated using data from TV Basics
- 12. NOV ‘72 DEC ‘77 SEPT ‘79 JAN ‘80 JUN ‘80 AUG ‘80MAR ‘83 MAY ‘82 AUG ‘81 DEC ‘80 JUN ‘85APR ‘83 FEB ‘84 FEB ‘84 JAN ‘85 JUL ‘86NOV ‘93 APR ‘91 OCT ‘88 FEB ‘87
- 13. Started by a former sports anchor frustrated with the amount of time he was given to report the sports news; with a $9,000 credit card advance and $30,000 from friends and family. ESPN
- 14. Started by the founder of The Cable Educational Network, Inc with $5 million in start-up capital led by investment firm Allen & Company THE DISCOVERY CHANNEL
- 15. Started by a lobbyist for the cable industry looking to create the first network aimed at African Americans with a loan of $15,000 and a $500,000 investment. BET NETWORK
- 16. SUCCESS IS NOT A RANDOM ACT. It arises out of a predictable and powerful set of circumstances and opportunities. “ “ - MALCOLM GLADWELL, Outliers
- 17. A CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY A CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR A MASSIVE OPPORTUNITY LEADS TO LEADS TO
- 18. SO...THAT WAS BACK THEN
- 21. A CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY
- 22. A CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY: THE NEW PIPE OWNERS
- 23. Smartphone Users, in Millions SMARTPHONE PENETRATION
- 24. SMARTPHONE PENETRATION VS 1980’S CABLE PENETRATION 1960 1970 1980 2000 2010 2020 Cable Subscriptions (1960-80) V Smartphone Penetration (2000-Present)
- 25. HOURS SPENT ON PHONES & WATCHING TV 3 Hours, 20 Min 4 Hours, 20 Min 2 Hours, 50 Minutes Hours Spent Daily Watching TV(1965-85) Hours Spent Daily on Smartphones (1995-Present) Estimated using data from TV Basics
- 26. ...CHANGES IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 US Pay TV Penetration Rates Source: US Census, Company reports, Citi Research
- 27. A CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY A CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR A MASSIVE OPPORTUNITY LEADS TO LEADS TO
- 29. ...BUT WHY WILL THE NEW GUYS WIN?
- 30. “ “ - MAXWELL WESSEL, Harvard Business Review At the end of the day, corporations exist to make money…They hear about the advantages of ‘disruptive innovation’…and decide that their organization should do ‘some of that’. But their organizations are designed to do something else very well. Namely, what they’re already doing
- 31. LAYOFFS AFFECT MTV, OTHER NETWORKS, AS VIACOM RESTRUCTURING CONTINUES VARIETY March 10, 2015 Viacom expected to cut around $250 million in costs as a result of the restructuring. ESPN CUTS 300 JOBS AS SUBSCRIBER FEE GROWTH SLOWS LA TIMES October 21, 2015 ESPN has been under pressure to control costs as it no longer can depend on steady growth from its most reliable revenue stream: fees from cable and satellite subscribers HBO TO CUT 7% OF ITS WORKFORCE BEGINNING THIS WEEK DEADLINE HOLLYWOOD October 28, 2014 Time Warner’s directive to its divisions to cut head count, part of the media giant’s effort to improve profitability, hits the premium network operation this week
- 32. “Consumer attention doesn’t scale with either volume or ready availability of content…” TAL SHACHAR Redef
- 33. I HAVE A VERY PARTICULAR SET
- 34. “The joke is that Chorus is a unicorn with a kitten on its back. People think it is a magical system that fixes everything.” TECH CENTRIC MELISSA BELL Co-Founder, Vox.com
- 35. 16M Views “The secret to Buzzfeed’s success is a culture that embraces constant change yet remains devoted to data-driven metrics.” DATA CENTRIC FAST COMPANY February 16, 2016
- 36. “NowThis has put its emphasis on creating content specifically for social media platforms – and shortening its news videos to live and thrive on those platforms” SOCIAL DNA POLITICO February 6, 2015
- 37. “[Bustle] is designed to be mobile- first. Nearly 85% of Bustle’s readership comes from mobile devices. For millennials, this is the new normal” MOBILE FIRST BRYAN GOLDBERG Founder, Bustle
- 38. “The skills required to do what a great real time digital journalist does are different…using the full capabilities of the digital medium, including covering unfolding stories in real-time, using text, pictures, video, and commentary.” REAL TIME NEWSROOM HENRY BLODGET Founder, Business Insider
- 39. TRULY NATIVE REVENUE GENERATION
- 40. ABILITY TO SOURCE DIGITAL INFLUENCERS
- 41. NETWORK TELEVISION PRODUCTION COST PER MINUTE $50,000 - $100,000 NEW MEDIA PRODUCTION COST PER MINUTE $500 - $1000 Data from MARK SUSTER, Upfront Ventures CONTENT COSTS IN LINE WITH ABILITY TO MONETIZE
- 42. ~Half of Millennials Don’t Own A TV ~Half of Millennials check their phones a few times per hour 44% 51% RESONATES WITH MILLENNIALS
- 43. MODERN TOOLS & TACTICS MODERN COST STRUCTURES MODERN MEDIA COMPANIES PLUS LEADS TO
- 60. ...SO WHAT HAPPENED TO THOSE CABLE NETWORKS?
- 61. SOME ROLLED UP SMALLER PLAYERS
- 62. “ABC to Acquire ESPN as Texaco Sells It’s 72%” LOS ANGELES TIMES August, 27, 1985 “CBS Corp. Will Acquire TNN and CMT for Stock Valued at 1.55B” ADVERTISING AGE February 11, 1997 “NBC to Buy Bravo Channel in $1.25B Deal” THE NEW YORK TIMES November 4, 2002 “Weather Channel is Sold to NBC and Equity Firms” THE NEW YORK TIMES July 7, 2008 ...MANY GOT ACQUIRED BY THE MEDIA BUSINESSES WHO CAME BEFORE THEM
- 63. “Turner to Merge into Time Warner; A $7.5B Deal” THE NEW YORK TIMES September 23, 1995 Viacom Set to Acquire CBS in Biggest Media Merger Ever THE NEW YORK TIMES September 8, 1999 “Comcast to Buy NBC Universal” MASHABLE December 1, 2009 ...AND SOME SOLD TO THE PIPE OWNERS
- 64. HISTORY IS REPEATING ITSELF, AGAIN...
- 65. SOME ARE ROLLING UP SMALLER PLAYERS
- 66. “Turner Buys Bleacher Report, Next-Gen Sports Site” FORBES August 6, 2012 “NBCUniversal Buys Big Chunks of Vox Media and Buzzfeed” RECODE August 12, 2015 “Disney Doubles Ownership Stake in Vice to 10%” VARIETY August 12, 2015 “Univision to purchase satirical website, The Onion” VARIETY August 12, 2015 ...MANY ARE GETTING ACQUIRED BY THE TRADITIONAL PLAYERS...
- 67. ...AND I PREDICT THAT SOME WILL START TO GET OWNED BY THE NEW PIPE OWNERS
- 68. PLATFORM CONTENT STRATEGIES ARE TAKING SHAPE FACEBOOK INSTANT ARTICLES SNAPCHAT DISCOVER TWITTER MOMENTS GOOGLE AMP PROJECT
- 69. And before a bunch of traditional media people freak out…
- 70. Bye guys. Love ya.
- 71. Questions, comments, blah blah blah?
Notas do Editor
- The Roman Empire published Acta Diurna ("Daily Acts"), or government announcement bulletins, around 59 BC, as ordered by Julius Caesar. They were carved in metal or stone and posted in public places.
- In the 1925, the TV was invented by John Logie Baird
- In the 1950s, the TV penetrated the homes of Americans and became the first screen people are addicted to 1950 – 9 percent of americans had a tv set – by 1960, that figure jumped to 90% (library of congress)
- 1940s – 1950s There was a bit of slow development of TV due to World War 2 – but by 1949, Americans who lived within range of the TV stations in the country could watch network TV. The programming was largely controlled by the “big 3” companies - National Broadcasting Company (NBC), American Broadcasting Company (ABC), and Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS). The 3 networks originally controlled only a few local television stations, but they swiftly affiliated with other stations to cover almost the entire U.S. by the late 50s. 1950 – 9 percent of americans had a tv set – by 1960, that figure jumped to 90% (library of congress) At this time, media was controlled by the few. These 3 stations were the gateway for content into people’s homes.
- THEN THERE WAS A CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY – this guy named John Walson launched the first commercial cable system in Mahanoy City, PA – because they were in a geographically isolated town, reception was poor and they didn’t have access to the channels in the nearest city. Customers purchasing TVs asked to be connected to Walson’s antenna and he recognized the business opp. He charged $2 a month for the service and by 1948 had 727 customers. He and other entrepreneurs began setting up similar “community antenna systems” in rural communities. By 1955 there were 400 such systems with a total of 150k subscribers. Cable TV was born.
- This was the beginning of today’s cable giants.
- It soon became apparent that the “television deprived” were not the only viewers who would want access to additional channels and additional programming. 850k in 1960s 16MM in 1970s 53MM in1980
- 1986, 82%of americans watched tv daily. Average household had the tv on for 7 hours a day SUDDENLY CABLE WAS HERE. AND EVERYONE WAS SPENDING THEIR TIME WATCHING TV. Graph from tvb.org
- In the 70’s, networks specifically designed to be distributed by the cable system began to appear
- 1980s - big household names are created - Cable networks had increased from 28 in 1980 to 79 in 1989 Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell – this was a circumstance that led to an opportunity.
- Went in search of investors, approached Taft Broadcasting, and the head of Taft told him Bill Rasmussen not only would the idea not work but cable was going to be gone in a few years. Kind of looks like a startup right? THIS BECAME FUCKING ESPN! The world’s most profitable media business – estimated value is $50 billion
- Today is the 2nd highest grossing TV network.
- Acquired by Viacom for $2.3 BILLION
- Then the 90s happened. And so did a lot of great stuff but there was very little disruption in media.
- Gave interent users faster connection speeds without disrupting their telephone usage. Broadband technology split the signal in one line between telephone and internet so users can use them simultaneously and at much greater speeds.
- THEN THERE WAS A CHANGE IN TECHNOLOGY – this guy named John Walson launched the first commercial cable system in Mahanoy City, PA – because they were in a geographically isolated town, reception was poor and they didn’t have access to the channels in the nearest city. Customers purchasing TVs asked to be connected to Walson’s antenna and he recognized the business opp. He charged $2 a month for the service and by 1948 had 727 customers. He and other entrepreneurs began setting up similar “community antenna systems” in rural communities. By 1955 there were 400 such systems with a total of 150k subscribers. Cable TV was born.
- This is how you discover content now.
- There is an overabundance of content; people consume content in a totally new way; NY Post
- When there’s a change in consumer behavior – another consumer behavior suffers Attention is moving away from cable
- Really hard for BIG, expensively-minded companies to be innovative
- Traditional co’s business models are under fire. Need to shrink infrastructure in order to grow stock price. Have to answer to Wall Street. Unlikely they’ll innovate.
- These guys have the attention of consumers.
- To survive in this ecosystem, you need a particular set of skills. There is the highest velocity of content being thrown at consumers than ever before. More time being spent on more devices. But there aren’t more hours in the day/more attention. There is a crisis of not enough attention for all the content being created. Only the best stuff is going to get discovered.
- These brands are going and taking traditional dollars – well positioned to be able to built beyond digital
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- They knew how to create content for the new pipes
- New media cos also getting bought by owners of old pipes
- (Viacom is CBS) The traditional “gateways” started to buy these new content creators – they were the most powerful in that medium. They knew how to engage audiences and they were attractive to advertisers.
- New media cos also getting bought by owners of old pipes
- History is repeating itself and the power has shifted to the content creators that know how to build for the new pipes. This is not to say that all new media companies will become huge and all the traditional companies will fail. Some will fail but some will also figure it out. Some will acquire new media companies.
- History is repeating itself and the power has shifted to the content creators that know how to build for the new pipes. This is not to say that all new media companies will become huge and all the traditional companies will fail. Some will fail but some will also figure it out. Some will acquire new media companies.
- History is repeating itself and the power has shifted to the content creators that know how to build for the new pipes. This is not to say that all new media companies will become huge and all the traditional companies will fail. Some will fail but some will also figure it out. Some will acquire new media companies.
- History is repeating itself and the power has shifted to the content creators that know how to build for the new pipes. This is not to say that all new media companies will become huge and all the traditional companies will fail. Some will fail but some will also figure it out. Some will acquire new media companies.
- History is repeating itself and the power has shifted to the content creators that know how to build for the new pipes. This is not to say that all new media companies will become huge and all the traditional companies will fail. Some will fail but some will also figure it out. Some will acquire new media companies.