1. Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong
ROUND THREE
HONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECT
June 2013

2. Survey Objectives:
• Establish baselines before next round on:
– Views on current governance system
– Public opinion on reform options
– Views by party, identity, interests (occupation,
ownership) and demographics (age, sex,
education, income, etc)
Part of Hong Kong Transition Project’s long term
study of public policy and political development
since 1982

3. January 2013
• 920 permanent residents randomly contacted by
telephone
– +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval
• Research conducted by Hong Kong Transition
Project, supported by a grant from the
Community Development Initiative
Hong Kong Transition Project

4. 3 FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS→
from circumstances of Rounds 1 (2005) & 2 (2010)
• Inter-generational Transfer Shift (1)
– From Old > Young: Education/Healthcare
– To Young> Old:Retirement/Geriatric care
• Identity Shift (2) as part of Generational Shift (3)
– From Hong Kong person > Chinese/Chinese Hong
Konger
– From Chinese = Patriotic Communist > Chinese =
National/Cultural Patriot
• 1st Gen since 1841 to grow up in Hong Kong,
China—with no effective memory of foreign rule

5. Generational Shift →
• 1 July 2013 marks 16 years from 1997 handover
• 1 July 2014 (Occupy Central deadline for “genuine
democracy” reforms) = 17 years
• 2017 Chief Executive election = 20 years
• Few under age 30 remember pre-1997
circumstances as lived experience. It is “history”
to them.
• Lived experience of this generation is: Bearing
burden of the past, not enjoying its legacy nor
believing in steady progress because they have
seen it happen

6. SOURCE: Carine Lai, Louisa
Mitchell, Michael DeGolyer,
The Changing Faces of Hong
Kong: “A Graphical Summary
of Women’s Status, 1991-
2011” (Feb 2013) The
Women’s Foundation/Civic
Exchange http://www.civic-
exchange.org/wp/201302gen
der_en/ p.17
By 2031, % of population
over 60 will rise from 13%
in 2011 to 26%+

7. Low birthrate, high aging rate crisis
• Shifting burden of care is burdening families in
new ways
• New forms of stress/unequal forms of stress on
families, caregivers and rising generation. No
parents = no stress. No children = not enough
help. High stress on fewer children.
• “Family friendly” policy does not recognize
“family” is no longer parents with children; it is
children with parents
• Intervening variable on satisfaction and fairness
of policy making questions

8. Average Adjusted income for Ages 20-29,
Census and By-census (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011)

9. Approximately what percentage of your
personal income do you contribute to
your parents?
BY Generation

10. Personal income to parents by
Monthly Family Income

11. Effect of SHIFTS on
IDENTITY

12. First Post-1997/Post-1841 Generation
< 30 year olds were <13 in 1997. Too young to
understand colonial Hong Kong.
First time over 60s and under 30s equal in a survey

13. National Education Effect?
“How would you describe yourself” by
Occupation
No student
chose
“Chinese” ID

14. Changes in identity

15. Birthplace
Hong Kong for Hong Kong born, but means something different now

16. ID by Generation

17. Which of these do you consider the
most important to you personally to
see protected and promoted?

18. Most important to promote & protect
BY Generation

19. How does the celebration of 1st
October National Day make you feel?

20. National Day feelings BY ID

21. Effect of SHIFTS on
Political ID

22. Which parties protect/represent best
by Age
60:40 pro-
democracy/pro-
establishment split
among voters NOW is
not sustained among
teenagers

23. For the Establishment
• Demographics are running against the
establishment parties
• Stalling reform does not improve their
position
• Youth are stressed and highly volatile
• Demographics and economics are raising that
stress and volatility UNLESS action is taken to
address its sources

24. Satisfaction with performance of CY
Leung by Generational group

25. How much do you believe CY Leung has:

26. How much do you believe Leung has:
Protected HK’s interest in national
matters BY Generation

27. How much do you believe Leung: Will
implement a fair system of nomination and
direct election for CE in 2017 BY Generation

28. How much do you trust Chief Executive
Leung to handle relations with:

29. How much do you trust CE Leung to
handle relations with: People like
yourself BY Generation

30. How much do you trust CE Leung to handle
relations with: People like yourself BY
Parental support paid

31. Are you currently worried or not about
these specific aspects affecting you,
your family or Hong Kong? (Jan 2013)

32. In your view, what is the most urgent
issue that should be addressed by the
Chief Executive?

33. Effect of Shifts on Reform

34. System Reform . . .
• Is more than economics and elections
• Political-Economic reform must achieve:
– Effective shareholder input,
– More widely owned decisions,
– Efficient implementation of decisions,
– followed by scientific evaluation and
independent monitoring,
– subject to review and public feedback

35. Reform Principles & Options
• For more effective input
• Legitimating outcomes
• Effectuating implementation
• Monitoring governance

36. Support/oppose directly electing the
Chief Executive (Trend chart)

37. Support/Oppose direct election of all
Legco seats (10 Year Trend)

38. Summary Table of Recoded support or
opposition on reform options

39. Would you support/oppose: Keep the CE
Election Committee at 1200 members as
present and make it the nominating committee
for candidates for direct elections in 2017?

40. Would you support/oppose: Reform FCs by
eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as
much as possible, the number of voters in
each constituency?

41. Would you support/oppose: Abolish
FCs for Legco but keep them for the CE
Nominating Committee

42. Would you support/oppose the following:
Abolish FCs completely in all forms?

43. Do you currently support or oppose:
Abolishing all FCs, both traditional and
new DC FC seats

44. Do you currently support or oppose:
Abolishing only the traditional small
circle 30 FC seats

45. Do you currently support/oppose: Replacing the 30
small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected by
everyone like the 5 new DC seats

46. Do you currently support/oppose: Abolishing the
split voting system in Legco which requires majority
votes in both the FCs and GCs for a bill or
amendment to pass

47. If all FC seats are directly geographic elected,
would you support or oppose: A minimum
required percentage of votes to get a seat, of
say, 10%, like in Germany?

48. Would you support/oppose: CE
candidates be allowed to be members of
a party?

49. Which party represents best by
Support/oppose CE candidates allowed to be
members of a party NO DIFFERENCE BY PARTY

50. Which party represents best by How much do you
believe CY Leung: Will implement a fair system of
nomination and direct election for CE in 2017

51. Which party represents best by
Support direct election of Chief
Executive

52. Which party represents best by
Support direct election all Legco
members

53. Which party represents best by
Abolish FCs completely in all forms

54. Which party represents best by
Abolish FCs for Legco, but keep for CE
election

55. Which party represents best by Keep present 1200
member CE Election Committee as Nominating
Committee, no change

56. Which party represents best by Do you
think gov makes policies fairly

57. Fairness in policy making BY Generation

58. Fairness of policy making BY Work
Sector

59. Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project
Details of methods and earlier reports available at: http://www.hktp.org
Hong Kong Transition Project Research since 1988 has been funded by RGC
grants, grants from National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, Civic
Exchange, The Women’s Foundation and many other local and international
NGOs, and Community Development Foundation
The Hong Kong Transition Project is a non-partisan, multi-disciplinary,
multi-national academic research project committed to good
governance and the highest standard public policy research