1. The Energy Challenge
CONTEXT
SCALE

2. Humanity’s Top 10 Problems for Next 50 Years
1. Energy
2. Water
3. Food
4. Environment
5. Poverty
6. Terrorism and War
7. Disease
8. Education
9. Democracy
10.Population
Richard E. Smalley, “Our Energy Challenge”
CONTEXT: The Nobel Laureate’s View

3. More energy, less CO2
CONTEXT: The “Miller Lite” Summary
“Tastes great, less filling”
SCALE: How much more energy?
How much less CO2?
How long?
What new technology?
What new infrastructure?

4. Energy is one of the Grand Challenges of our time
Energy is not a monolithic issue
supply, demand, conservation, application, scale, location, independence,
environment, climate change, GDP, carbon intensity, infrastructure, technology,
policy, sustainability, public acceptance…
Fossil fuels will be important throughout this
century
Renewables are growing rapidly, but from a very
small base
Efficiency/conservation has the best payback
Each barrel of oil saved keeps $ in our pockets and ~1000 pounds of carbon dioxide
out of the atmosphere!
BUT we cannot save our way to meeting the world’s future energy needs.
Energy Summary

5. Energy – World Scale Dimensions
1 exajoule (EJ) = 10 Joules
1 Quadrillion BTU (Quad) = 10 BTU
1 Terawatt (TW)=10 Gigawatts=10 Megawatts=10 kilowatts
18
15
3
1 TWyr ≈ 30 Quads ≈ 30 EJ
World energy consumption ≈ 400 Quads/yr
US Energy Consumption ≈ 100 Quads/yr
6 9
US daily consumption: 20 million barrels of oil
60 billion cubic feet of natural gas
3 million tons of coal
Energy content of 1 cubic foot of natural gas = 1000 BTU
Energy content of 1 gallon of gasoline = 125,000 BTU

6. “We are not going to have energy
independence as long as the US relies
on the internal combustion engine.”
James R. Schlesinger
former Secretary of Energy

10. Coal use will increase under any foreseeable scenario because it is
cheap and abundant.
CO2 capture and sequestration is the critical enabling technology
that would reduce CO2 emissions significantly while also allowing
coal to meet the world’s pressing energy needs.”
- MIT report, “The Future of Coal” March 2007
Renewables will not play a large role in primary power generation
unless/until:
–technological/cost breakthroughs are achieved, or
–unpriced externalities are introduced (e.g.,
environmentally driven carbon taxes)
Nate Lewis, Caltech
http://nsl.caltech.edu/energy.html

11. US Energy Mix
Electricity Generation (~40% of total):
50% Coal, 18% Natural gas, 3% Petroleum
Transportation Fuels (~30 % of total):
96% Petroleum
Very little overlap between energy sources for
these two dominant sectors!

12. + 1.6%/yr
- 1.0%/yr
N. S. Lewis and D. G. Nocera, PNAS, 103, 15729 (2006)
World Energy Statistics and Projections

13. At minimum, we need to triple global
energy supply in this century.
Supply Perspective:

14. 1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW
Total Primary Power vs. Year
http://nsl.caltech.edu/energy.html

15. More Energy, but Less CO2
World in 2100 will need:
3X current energy production
<1/3 current CO2 emissions
= 10X less CO2 emitted per unit of energy
used

16. Carbon-Free Primary Power Need
http://nsl.caltech.edu/energy.html

17. = 7.4GtC
= 1.9GtC

18. Sir David King, 2007 presentation to AAAS

19. Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) @ Summit on America’s Energy Future 3/13/08
http://www7.nationalacademies.org/energysummit/bingaman_summit_ppt.pdf

20. Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) @ Summit on America’s Energy Future 3/13/08
http://www7.nationalacademies.org/energysummit/bingaman_summit_ppt.pdf

21. • Wind
- Has potential to meet a large fraction of electricity needs
- Reliability, storage, transmission issues
• Solar
- Has potential to meet a significant fraction of electricity needs
- Suitable for distributed generation
- Reliability, storage issues
• Biomass
- Has potential to replace fraction of petroleum for transportation
- Questionable energy benefit for corn ethanol
- Land and water issues, competition with food production
Potential of Renewable Energy Resources

25. There is no single energy source or technology
that will “solve” our energy and environmental
needs
We need to develop a range of technologies to
fuller potential
Technology alone is likely not enough
Efficiency/conservation has the best payback
BUT we cannot save our way to meeting the world’s future
energy needs.