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Famous Last Words Paul Sommerville Delta Index Ltd. 24th June 2010
Famous Last Words: Don’t be an idiot, who else would use the fast lane in this fog? Of course it isn’t loaded................ Right, hold my coat................... Tell me when I’m getting near the edge............ Now let me see – brown neutral, blue live................ Don’t worry; I know how to tie a rope properly.............. Listen, I drive better after a few drinks................................. Its years since I’ve ridden one of these yokes...................
Famous Words in the Financial World: The worst is over Sure nobody could have seen this coming Always diversify China is going to be big! Just like the Internet was going to be big, just like property is the only safe investment, commodities were going to be big Solar energy is a great investment ! It’s a great day to buy stocks –they look undervalued
Human Nature I’m really unlucky at trading, the minute I buy something it seems to go down. In fact I’m just an unlucky person. The market is a lottery sure nobody can make head nor tail of it. I like to buy things and when they go up I sell them. If they don’t go up I buy more, sure they’re bound to go up eventually! My stockbroker tells me the buy and hold strategy is the best. Warren Buffet agrees! I prefer to leave it to the experts.
Rule No. 1 The first rule about making money; STOP LOSING MONEY
Anglo Irish Bank 2007 to Bust
Bank of Ireland 2007 to Present
Bank of Ireland2010 “Buy” Target: 1.50 “Buy” Target: 1.20 “Buy” Target: 0.90 “Buy” Target 1.95 “Buy” Target: 1.70
What We SaidSunday Times - 14 Sept 2008
Rule No. 2 Discipline Totally lacking in  investment Overtrading Where are the stops? Using a buy and hold strategy with leverage in a bear market – lethal The market does not always go up Nikkei Chart Dow Chart
Rule No. 3 Know where you are getting out,  BEFORE you get in
Rule No. 4 The market is a forward pricing mechanism Learn this rule.....this is all you need to know!
CRHFeb – Aug 23rd In line with guidance provided in the January trading update
CRH27th July – 7th Sept
Global signs according to Paul Many of the sources of today’s growth are temporary and precarious. The rebuilding of inventories will not boost firms output for long. Across the globe spending is being driven by Government largesse not animal spirits. The world has changed and especially the investment world and it is those who adapt will survive and thrive.
Stimulus packages wearing off A great credit contraction is upon us Recovery hopes pinned on cheap credit but new debt has gone out of style
This is a bear market All bear markets are characterised by despair, followed by misplaced hope, followed by further despair.
Nikkei 225 1989 - Present
Sentiment Indicators Volume Optimism Momentum Anecdotal Human Psychology
What have we learned? I’m really unlucky at trading- the minute I buy something it seems to go down. No you’re just the last man in. In fact I’m just an unlucky person.  No you’re just using your emotions and uninformed broker to make decisions.
What have we learned? The market is a lottery sure nobody can make head nor tail of it. No the market is a forward pricing mechanism, this is the key to everything. I like to buy things and when they go up I sell them. If they don’t go up I buy more, sure they’re bound to go up eventually! A recipe for having a portfolio of dogs.
Berkshire Hathaway 2009
Crude Oil Goldman: Oil heading to $200 Goldman: Oil heading below $30
Dollar
Euro/Dollar
Monsanto
LSE:CRH
Nikkei 225 Index Chart - NIK:NI225
Think ! If you swim with the crowd you will lose money like the crowd. Last thing to remember is stay away from slow horses and fast women and always ask the question;  “Where are all the customers’ yachts?”

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Delta index trading presentation

  • 1. Famous Last Words Paul Sommerville Delta Index Ltd. 24th June 2010
  • 2. Famous Last Words: Don’t be an idiot, who else would use the fast lane in this fog? Of course it isn’t loaded................ Right, hold my coat................... Tell me when I’m getting near the edge............ Now let me see – brown neutral, blue live................ Don’t worry; I know how to tie a rope properly.............. Listen, I drive better after a few drinks................................. Its years since I’ve ridden one of these yokes...................
  • 3. Famous Words in the Financial World: The worst is over Sure nobody could have seen this coming Always diversify China is going to be big! Just like the Internet was going to be big, just like property is the only safe investment, commodities were going to be big Solar energy is a great investment ! It’s a great day to buy stocks –they look undervalued
  • 4. Human Nature I’m really unlucky at trading, the minute I buy something it seems to go down. In fact I’m just an unlucky person. The market is a lottery sure nobody can make head nor tail of it. I like to buy things and when they go up I sell them. If they don’t go up I buy more, sure they’re bound to go up eventually! My stockbroker tells me the buy and hold strategy is the best. Warren Buffet agrees! I prefer to leave it to the experts.
  • 5. Rule No. 1 The first rule about making money; STOP LOSING MONEY
  • 6. Anglo Irish Bank 2007 to Bust
  • 7. Bank of Ireland 2007 to Present
  • 8. Bank of Ireland2010 “Buy” Target: 1.50 “Buy” Target: 1.20 “Buy” Target: 0.90 “Buy” Target 1.95 “Buy” Target: 1.70
  • 9. What We SaidSunday Times - 14 Sept 2008
  • 10. Rule No. 2 Discipline Totally lacking in investment Overtrading Where are the stops? Using a buy and hold strategy with leverage in a bear market – lethal The market does not always go up Nikkei Chart Dow Chart
  • 11. Rule No. 3 Know where you are getting out, BEFORE you get in
  • 12. Rule No. 4 The market is a forward pricing mechanism Learn this rule.....this is all you need to know!
  • 13. CRHFeb – Aug 23rd In line with guidance provided in the January trading update
  • 14. CRH27th July – 7th Sept
  • 15. Global signs according to Paul Many of the sources of today’s growth are temporary and precarious. The rebuilding of inventories will not boost firms output for long. Across the globe spending is being driven by Government largesse not animal spirits. The world has changed and especially the investment world and it is those who adapt will survive and thrive.
  • 16. Stimulus packages wearing off A great credit contraction is upon us Recovery hopes pinned on cheap credit but new debt has gone out of style
  • 17. This is a bear market All bear markets are characterised by despair, followed by misplaced hope, followed by further despair.
  • 18.
  • 19. Nikkei 225 1989 - Present
  • 20. Sentiment Indicators Volume Optimism Momentum Anecdotal Human Psychology
  • 21. What have we learned? I’m really unlucky at trading- the minute I buy something it seems to go down. No you’re just the last man in. In fact I’m just an unlucky person. No you’re just using your emotions and uninformed broker to make decisions.
  • 22. What have we learned? The market is a lottery sure nobody can make head nor tail of it. No the market is a forward pricing mechanism, this is the key to everything. I like to buy things and when they go up I sell them. If they don’t go up I buy more, sure they’re bound to go up eventually! A recipe for having a portfolio of dogs.
  • 24. Crude Oil Goldman: Oil heading to $200 Goldman: Oil heading below $30
  • 29. Nikkei 225 Index Chart - NIK:NI225
  • 30. Think ! If you swim with the crowd you will lose money like the crowd. Last thing to remember is stay away from slow horses and fast women and always ask the question; “Where are all the customers’ yachts?”