Climate Change - Our Challenge for the 21st Century by Jennifer Adkins, Director, Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

1. Climate Change:
Our Challenge for the 21st Century
Dr. Susan S. Kilham
Department of Biodiversity, Earth and
Environmental Science
Drexel University
Jennifer Adkins
Executive Director
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

2. Sources of Information
From the Partnership for the Delaware
Estuary:
2007: Estuary News: Climate Change Hits
Home
2010: Climate Change and the Delaware
Estuary
2011: Weathering Change
2012: Technical Report for the Delaware
Estuary and Basin
 From Pennsylvania State University:
2013: Pennsylvania Climate Impacts
Assessment Update


3. Local Impacts of Climate Change in this
Century

Increased temperatures (up to 4°C
(7.2°F)by 2100-A2)
Increased precipitation
 Increased evapotranspiration
 Decreased soil moisture
(except in spring)
 Increased stream temperatures
 Increased salinity ( sea levels + stream
flow)


4. But, Also Consider
Population growth
 Urbanization and other
land cover changes
 Pollution of water bodies

These could be equal or even greater stressors than
climate change, especially in the near future

5. Consequences of Changes:
Temperature
Increased temperatures cause decreased
oxygen concentrations.
 Additionally, increased N-oxygen demand from
increased NH4 loading
 Consequences for sensitive fish species,
especially YOY sturgeon and cold water species
 Increased NH4 loading also affects FW mussels
 Changes in growing season, phenology misfits


6. Consequences of Change:
Precipitation
General increase in precipitation
in the last 30 years
 Increased seasonal variability in precipitation:
greater in winter/spring and less in summer
 Less snow, shorter snow cover duration
 Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events

(changes in channel morphology, flushing of contaminants,
erosion of stream banks, higher sediment loads)

Decreased survival and reproductive success for
fish and macroinvertebrates.

7. Consequences of Change:
Evapotranspiration
Precipitation during growing season is
returned nearly completely to the
atmosphere via evapotranspiration
 Lengthening of growing season
increases evapotranspiration
 Water levels in streams in summer/fall
will decline
 Low flows and higher temperatures are
likely to decrease habitat suitability for
aquatic organisms (low O2, increased
flow variability, timing of peak flows and
changes in stream T)


8. Consequences of Change:
Soil Moisture
Soil moisture droughts will increase because of
higher T and lower precipitation during summers.
This trend is already apparent.
 Wetter winters over frozen soils leads to greater
runoff, even floods.
 Groundwater recharge occurs mostly in spring,
but increased precipitation is unlikely to
compensate for excessive withdrawals.


9. Consequences of Change:
Increased Salinity
Drinking water for 15 million people (DRBC: Na <
50ppm; AHA Na < 20 ppm). Chloride
is expected to increase 4X in Philadelphia by 2100
 Sea level increase (globally up to 1.4 m , but
regionally higher by 2100)
 Severe impacts to wetlands
with critical problems for
wetland species
 Oyster growth and survival
will be impacted


10. A Few Particular Concerns
Adjusting the traditional paradigm of restoration
to past conditions to the reality of climate change
 Protecting source water quantity and quality
 Wetland/salt marsh issues
 Species disconnects in phenology
 Barriers to species migrations;
assisted migration
 Mussell/shad hatcheries
 Tipping points


11. Considerations
What are our goals?
 How do we measure and monitor to evaluate
whether or not we are accomplishing our goals?
 What inputs are needed to build better models for
predicting anticipated changes?
 What are the barriers to accomplishing goals?


12. PDE Climate Case Studies
3 case
studies
How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary?
How will changes impact key resources?
What are our options for making them more resilient?
What actions are recommended to protect them?
What if we don’t take action?

13. In the Watershed
Water Quality
Improvement
 Forest Protection
 Stormater
Management
 Green Infrastructure
 Flow Management
 Infrastructure
Updates


14. In the Marshes
25% Loss
of tidal
wetlands!
2000
2100

15. Mid Atlantic Coastal Wetland
Assessment
• Assessed condition of 268
points since 2010
• Comparative data analyses
and management
recommendations
• Studying ecosystem services
associated with salt marshes
• Long-term monitoring
stations (right)
• Devising new tactics to
boost coastal wetland
resilience

16. Living Shorelines

17. “Marsh Futures”
Coastal Wetlands for Shoreline Defense
Hybrid LS
Bio LS
Sediment
2035
2050
2025
2020
Elevation Capital Layer
Strategic BMP Layer

18. In the River and Bay
Shell planting for Oysters
Propagate Mussels
Monitoring &
Research

19. In Communities

20. In Communities
Out of Harm’s Way Forum – August 2012

21. BaySIPP
The Bayshore Sustainable Infrastructure Planning Project
Areas of Opportunity for
the Community and
Conservation
Organizations to Work
Together to Improve
Resilience with Green
Infrastructure

22. THANKS!
For More Info…
http://www.delawareestuary.org/Wetlands
http://www.delawareestuary.org/Climate-preparedness-0