Bangkok Retail Market Report Q4 2010

year end 2010 | reTaIL

thailand

Bangkok Retail MaRket
RePoRt

Bangkok Retail Market
executive Summary
around 185,000 sq m of retail space was completed for the whole of 2010. For Q4 2010, five
community malls came online adding approximately 38,000 sq m of space to Bangkok.

the big story of Q4 2010 and probably 2010 was the purchase of Carrefour by the Big C
hypermarket chain. this will consolidate the hypermarket sector into something resembling a
duopoly between Big C and tesco.

market indicatOrS as in the Carrefour bid, some jockeying for position for existing retail centres could occur due to
the impending Retail and Wholesale act which will constrain the development of new large retail
2009 - 2010
centres in urban Bangkok.

Supply
older retail centres continue to renovate in order to successfully compete with newer retail
rentalS centres with modern designs.

Occupancy Small rises in rentals and occupancy were recorded for 2010 despite the dislocations resulting
from the protests from March to May.

ongoing demonstrations in the Rajaprasong intersection pose further challenges for retailers in
the area and could escalate in what is likely to be a frenetic election year.

www.colliers.co.th

Bangkok reTaIL MarkeT rePorT | Q4 2010

retail lOcatiOnS

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 2


retail market categOrieS
the organized retail market in thailand can be divided into seven main
categories, based on size, characteristics, goods sold, and pricing.

1) Shopping mall / Shopping centre
2) department Store (figures for this report include stand alone stores
only, those located in shopping malls are not included)
3) hypermarket
4) community mall
5) Specialty Stores
6) entertainment complex (this does not include entertainment areas in note: For the purposes of the report retail refers to organized retail
shopping malls as these represent an intrinsic part of the shopping mall services and excludes traditional single proprietor outlets often located
mix) in shophouses and markets consisting of predominantly small traders.
7) Supporting retail also supermarkets have been excluded from this report.

hiStOrical Supply

tOtal retail Supply 2007-2010

Source : Colliers international thailand Research

approximately 38,000 sq m was completed in Q4 2010 and a total of Big C will own 113 hypermarkets in thailand against tesco lotus’s 87
approximately 185,000 sq m was completed in 2010, however some hypermarkets. Big C has no plans to close any of the 42 Carrefour stores
projects have been delayed to next year due to the affects of the protests although some stores are located in the same area of existing Big C
in Q2 of 2010. stores.

Forty two stores of Carrefour in thailand were acquired in Q4 2010 by
Big C, a subsidiary of French retailer groupe Casino. after the acquisition



additiOnal Supply in 2010 by quarter


additional supply for Q4 2010 was provided by five community malls was opened on 10 october 2010 and Park lane Bangkok had its grand
with a total area of around 38,000 sq m. Pure Place Ramkhamhaeng 110 opening on 17 november 2010 and is located in the thong lor area.

breakdOwn Of retail Space in bangkOk by lOcatiOn, q4 2010


Since 2007 onwards until 2010, retail space in the outer City area increased more than 36%, due to lower land prices in these zones and
increased by more than 14% while Suburban Bangkok – north area the proximity of these locations to a strong customer base.



tOtal hiStOrical Supply by lOcatiOn tO q4 2010


Retail developers are trying to develop projects closer to their catchment the attraction, as in most cities, of shopping in the centre. Before the
areas in the suburban areas, where more people live. However only half advent of cars for the masses the centre was the area that people flocked
of total retail space in Bangkok is located in the suburban Bangkok area; to for the retail experience.
with every department store in Bangkok located in the urban area due to



future Supply

cumulative Of future Supply in bangkOk by year and categOry, aS Of q4 2010


the future supply scheduled to be completed in 2011 is approximately terminal 21 is scheduled to be completed in 2011 nearly 35,000 sq m of
290,000 sq m with approximately 185,000 sq m as shopping malls and shopping mall space in the City area. this is likely to herald the end of
85,000 sq m is expected to be completed in 2012. large scale retail development in the centre for the foreseeable future
due to forthcoming restrictions. the new BtS extension line on nut –
the outer City area still remains the most popular location for retail. Bearing, planned to commence commercial operations in Q4 2011 will
in Q4 2011 Central Rama 9 on Ratchadapisek – Rama 9 intersection is boost residential projects in the area along the line, so retail developers
scheduled to be completed with a total area of approximately 83,300 are likely to pay attention to this location, especially for community
sq m, increasing the supply of shopping malls. malls.



demand – take up

breakdOwn Of hiStOrical take up rate Of retail Space by lOcatiOn, 2005 – 2010


Small increases were registered in all zones for 2010. the City and increase of approximately 0.4% was recorded.
outer City areas up around 0.3 - 0.4% while in the Suburban area an

take up rate Of current Supply by categOry, q4 2010


take up rate of all categories, except supporting retail, is more than 95%. account for this as this means less people using the outlets. in some
Supporting retail commands only 85% and can be explained by the situations the space for supporting retail is too large for the size of the
reliance on custom from workers in the offices that retail component office it supports and some convert to office use or other functions such
supports. lower levels of office occupancy over the past few years as educational centres.



take up rate Of current Supply by lOcatiOn, q1 – q4 2010


take up rates for retail in Q4 2010 increased q/q in every quarter, albeit slightly. the return of consumer confidence is the likely reason.

demand driverS fOcuS

cOnSumer cOnfidence index (cci)

Source : Bureau of trade and economic indices, Colliers international thailand Research

the slump in consumer confidence for much of 2008 and 2009 was the period of 09/10, this was severely dented following the protests in april
result of the global Financial Crisis that caused thailand’s gDP to shrink. and May. However Q3 witnessed a return to the increasing trend and Q4
While confidence began to take on a sustained upward path in the winter is the highest quarter in last four years.



retail SaleS

retail SaleS index by quarter

Source : Bank of thailand, Colliers international thailand Research
Remark : e = estimated by Colliers international Research
Year 2002 = 100

the protests in the previous quarter had impacted the retail market but sales that will show the highest levels in the last five years, even
in Q3 2010 the overall pattern of spending returned and this shows compared to previous Christmas and new Year holiday seasons.
optimism for the future. For Q4 2010 the Bank of thailand forecast retail

dOmeStic credit card uSage vOlume

credit card uSage vOlume by quarter

Source : Bank of thailand, Colliers international thailand Research
Remark : e = estimated by Colliers international Research

Credit card usage over the past five years has increased by around 60% up in Q3 2010. the fourth quarter is the last quarter of the year and
and these cards are more often used in organized retail centres. the includes Christmas and new Year festival, so credit card usage volume
recent numbers indicate a fall in spending during the protests and a pick in this quarter of every year is usually the highest.



trendS

digital retailS retail players there are new entrants into the market such as “Uber Mall”
the first 3D shopping mall online and www.2010MegaSale.com by
kasikorn Bank. a survey by Master Card Worldwide found that thai
neCteC reported the number of internet users in thailand in 2010,
people are interested in shopping online, with an average value of
based on survey results from www.truehits.com, to be more than 21
products bought online increasing to 18,150 baht per person, more than
million, an increase of nearly 15% from 18.3 million people in 2009; and
last survey of approximately 5,000 baht. However the retail experience
according to this report the number of internet users is at around 33%
is not just one of shopping. For many it represents an important form of
of the population in thailand. Retail developers are therefore looking at
entertainment both daytime and in the evening and the internet
opportunities to expand their sales channels, by opening their own online
experience is not able to replace this. in a tropical climate, retail centres
stores. However the number of thais who shop online is still lower than
allow people to walk in a comfortable environment.
many countries in asia.

in the last quarter of 2010 two big players in retail business stepped into
the online shopping business. the Mall group officially launched the M
online Department Store (Mods: www.mods.co.th) on December 8 2010
and will promote more than 30,000 products in 11 categories. they also
plan to increase the number of products available for online shopping to
about 100,000 next year.

Central group launched their own shopping online website, www.central.
co.th and they coordinated with tnt to deliver products to buyers. Big C
also have a website for shopping online www.atbigclick.com, but buyers
must go to a Big C outlet to pick up the product. in addition to the major

rentalS

rental rate during the year 2000 - 2010

Source: Colliers international thailand Research

the rental rates in every area still remains more or less the same from protests in april and May of 2010.
last year, only in the City area was there a very slight fall due to the



fOrecaSt

the retail industry is in its typical ‘winter’ boom season with not only and in the long term could deter shoppers from visiting the area. although
Christmas and new Year shopping but also for Chinese new Year, what is likely to be an election year will lead to an infusion of money the
Songkran and Valentines Day. the increase in the minimum wage and is heat of the campaign will also disrupt normal shopping patterns.
also likely to spur retail spending during this period and beyond it.
Retail developers will be focusing more on shopping online and improve
Big C won the bidding for 42 stores of Carrefour in thailand and they their websites with more choice and availability. However for the
plan to keep every store, even those located in the same location of Big foreseeable future this is likely to complement rather than challenge the
C. the hypermarket dynamics now consists of primarily a duopoly existing retail experience.
between Big C and tesco lotus. an issue for the next few quarters will
be how the two can target Carrefour’s customer base which tends to be the future of retail in Bangkok will be affected by the impending Retail
more upmarket. of the two tesco lotus caters more for this market and and Wholesale act, which will address the issue of dominance by large
is therefore likely to have the initial advantage. retail centres in the urban areas by restricting new development. the
value and importance of existing retail in the centre is likely to increase
Renovation and change is the keyword for retail business in the next few over time and the various players could be involved in bidding/takeover
years, as many centres need to refurbish to maintain their customer activity over the coming months and years. Carrefour maybe just the
base in light of newer retail centres providing strong competition. the beginning.
design of retail centres is radically different from 20 years ago with a
greater emphasis on driving visitors up into its higher levels which lead
to higher occupancy and rental rates above the first few floors.

the ongoing protests in the Rajaprasong intersection could spell
difficulties for retailers in this area as such protests that have begun to
take place every two weeks during the busy weekend shopping period



cOllierS internatiOnal thailand
management team 480 offices in 61 countries on
6 continents
Retail SeRViCeS United States: 135 • the third largest commercial
asharawan Wachananont | Senior Manager real estate services company in
Canada: 39
the world
latin america: 17
ReSiDential SaleS & leaSing • the second most recognised
asia Pacific: 194
nuttaya Junhasavasdikul | Manager commercial real estate brand
eMea: 95 globally
PRoJeCt SaleS & MaRketing • US$2 billion in annual revenue
Wasan Rattanakijjanukul | Manager • over 2 billion square feet under
management
aDViSoRY SeRViCeS • over 15,000 professionals
napatr tienchutima | Manager

oFFiCe & inDUStRial SeRViCeS
narumon Rodsiravoraphat | Senior Manager

Real eState ManageMent SeRViCeS CoLLIerS InTernaTIonaL ThaILand:
Bandid Chayintu | associate Director
Bangkok office
17/F Ploenchit Center,
aDViSoRY SeRViCeS | HoSPitalitY 2 Sukhumvit Road, klongtoey,
Jean Marc garret | Director Bangkok 10110 thailand
tel +662 656 7000
inVeStMent SeRViCeS fax +662 656 7111
nukarn Suwatikul | Senior Manager email info.th@colliers.com

Pattaya office
ReSeaRCH
519/4-5, Pattaya Second Road (opposite Central Festival
antony Picon | Senior Manager Pattaya Beach), nongprue, Banglamung, Chonburi 20150
Surachet kongcheep | Manager tel +6638 427 771
fax +6638 427 772
ValUation & aDViSoRY SeRViCeS email info.pattaya@colliers.com
nicholas Brown | associate Director
Phachsanun Phormthananunta | Manager

PattaYa oFFiCe
Mark Bowling | Sales Manager
Supannee Starojitski | Business Development Manager

reSearcher: reSearcher:
thailand thailand
antony Picon Surachet kongcheep
Senior Manager | Research Manager | Research
email antony.picon@colliers.com email surachet.kongcheep@colliers.com

this report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.co.th. Questions related to
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