INDICE DE PRODUCCION INDUSTRIAL Datos del mes de marzo 2009

1. F UNDACION DE
I NVESTIGACIONES
E CONOMICAS
L ATINOAMERICANAS
INDICE DE PRODUCCION
INDUSTRIAL (IPI)
Fuente: FIEL
Datos: Marzo 2009
Buenos Aires, 21-4-2009

2. IPI mensual: Marzo +17.8%, pero abajo Marzo 2008, 2007 y 2006.
PRODUCCION INDUSTRIAL
170
160
150
140
Indice Base 1993=100
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
E93
E94
E95
E96
E97
E98
E99
E00
E01
E02
E03
E04
E05
E06
E07
E08
E09
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J

3. El MA 12 y el MA3 ambos negativos.
VARIACION AÑO SOBRE AÑO MOVING AVERAGE
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
VARIACION PORCENTUAL
4%
2%
0%
E95
E96
E97
E98
E99
E00
E01
E02
E03
E04
E05
E06
E07
E08
E09
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
-18%
RECESIONES MOVING AVERAGE 12 MESES MOVING AVERAGE 3 MESES

4. Promedios, Máximos y 2009. El trimestre entre el 2005 y el 2006.
IPI NIVEL GENERAL
MAXIMOS ABSOLUTOS DE CADA MES DEL PERIODO 1993 A 2009
180
170
2008
2007
2008
2008 2008
160 2008
2007
2008 2007
150
2007
140
1993=100
2008
2008
130
120
110
PROMEDIOS DE CADA MES DESDE 1993 A 2008
100
90
E F M A M J JL A S O N D
Maximo Promedio 2009

5. Niveles mensuales desde 2005, más 1998.
INDICE DE PRODUCCION INDUSTRIAL
170
160
150
INDICE BASE 1993 = 100
140
130
120
110
100
1998 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
90
E F M A M J J A S O N D

6. 1993=100
100
110
120
130
140
150
70
80
90
87.1
1993
92.5
1994
96.0
1995
95.4
1996
104.4
1997
1998 106.1
1999 99.6
2000 104.9
103.1
2001
85.6
2002
98.4
2003
PRIMER TRIMESTRE DE CADA AÑO
112.5
2004
119.7
2005
Desde 1993. El 2009: -13.1% s/2008, -7.3% s/2007 y –2.1% s/2006.
2006 127.4
2007 134.6
143.5
2008
2009 124.7

7. -20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
1.6%
E05
6.7%
10.6%
13.3%
A
8.7%
3.6%
8.8%
J
9.0%
7.4%
6.9%
O
10.6%
5.5%
5.4%
E06
8.9%
5.2%
3.1%
A
8.8%
12.7%
10.5%
J
9.7%
9.6%
9.3%
O
7.1%
7.1%
5.2%
E07
3.1%
8.3%
7.8%
A
8.5%
3.7%
1.6%
J
6.5%
4.8%
11.6%
O
9.5%
7.4%
14.7%
E08
IPI: VARIACION MISMO MES AÑO ANTERIOR
7.8%
-1.1%
11.4%
A
7.2%
0.5%
10.1%
J
-2.5%
6.2%
-4.4%
O
Variación t-12: ¿de 4 meses al –15% a marzo al –9%?. Semana Santa y paro.
-15.7%
-14.7%
-15.2%
E09
-15.3%
-8.9%

8. PORCENTAJE
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-6.1%
I 99
-8.7%
-8.2%
III
1.0%
5.3%
I 00
-0.5%
-1.7%
III
-4.4%
-1.7%
I 01
1.6%
-3.3%
III
-10.8%
I 02 -17.0%
-11.4%
-6.3%
III
0.3%
14.9%
I 03
12.0%
11.9%
III
17.8%
14.3%
I 04
9.7%
11.1%
III
7.8%
6.4%
I 05
8.4%
8.4%
III
7.7%
Variación Trimestral: dos trimestres consecutivos de caída.
6.4%
I 06
IPI. VARIACION PORCENTUAL RESPECTO AL
MISMO TRIMESTRE DEL PERIODO ANTERIOR
8.2%
9.9%
III
7.9%
5.7%
I 07
6.6%
4.4%
III
9.6%
6.6%
I 08
6.3%
4.4%
III
-11.4%
-13.1%
I 09

9. El acumulado del 2008: ¿lidera BK?.
EVOLUCIÓN POR TIPO DE BIEN:
VARIACIÓN 3 MESES 2009 / 3 MESES 2008
Mz.09/Mz.08
+8.3%
BCND 1.4%
-9.8%
BUI -12.2%
-8.9% -13.1%
IPI
-18.3% -30.4%
BCD
-35.8%
BK -37.1%
-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
VAR. INTERANUAL

10. Contribución al crecimiento.
CONTRIBUCIÓN AL CRECIMIENTO
3 MESES 2009 / 3 MESES 2008
0.38%
BCND
BK -2.44%
BCD -4.98%
BUI -6.03%
-7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
VAR. INTERANUAL

11. IPI BIENES DE CONSUMO NO DURABLES
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
Base 1993=100
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
E F M A M J JL A S O N D
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

12. BIENES DE CONSUMO NO DURABLES
10% 2007: 4,1%
I 5,4%
II 3.1%
8% III 1.5%
IV 6,7%
2008: 4.0%
6% I 1.5%
II 5.1%
III 8.6%
4% IV 0.7%
2009
VARIACION PORCENTUAL
I 1.4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
I 94
I 95
I 96
I 97
I 98
I 99
I 00
I 01
I 02
I 03
I 04
I 05
I 06
I 07
I 08
I 09
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III

13. IPI BIENES DE CONSUMO DURABLES
160
150
140
130
120
Base 1993=100
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
E F M A M J JL A S O N D
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

14. BIENES DE CONSUMO DURABLES
2007: 21,7%
80%
I 23,4%
II 25.2%
70%
III 19,4%
IV 19,7%
60% 2008: -0.9%
I 17.3%
II 11.4%
50%
III 1.2%
IV -27.0%
40% 2009
VARIACION PORCENTUAL
I -30.4%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
I 94
I 95
I 96
I 97
I 98
I 99
I 00
I 01
I 02
I 03
I 04
I 05
I 06
I 07
I 08
I 09
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III

15. IPI BIENES DE USO INTERMEDIO
170
160
150
Base 1993=100
140
130
120
E F M A M J JL A S O N D
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

16. BIENES DE USO INTERMEDIO
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
VARIACION PORCENTUAL
2%
0%
2007: 3,1%
-2%
I 2.3%
II 2.8%
-4% III 0.5%
IV 6,8%
2008: -1.4%
-6% I 4.4%
II 3.1%
III 0.1%
-8%
IV -12.4%
2009
I -12.2%
-10%
-12%
-14%
I 94
I 95
I 96
I 97
I 98
I 99
I 00
I 01
I 02
I 03
I 04
I 05
I 06
I 07
I 08
I 09
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III

17. IPI BIENES DE CAPITAL
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
Base 1993=100
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
E F M A M J JL A S O N D
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

18. BIENES DE CAPITAL
90%
2007: 7,8%
80%
I -1,0%
II 6.3%
70%
III 7.6%
IV 17,2%
60%
2008: 12.7%
I 23.6%
50%
II 20.8%
III 25.5%
40%
VARIACION PORCENTUAL
IV -14.4%
2009
30% I -37.1%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
I 94
I 95
I 96
I 97
I 98
I 99
I 00
I 01
I 02
I 03
I 04
I 05
I 06
I 07
I 08
I 09
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III
III

19. Ranking 2009 tres meses: IPI -13.1%.
RANKING DE VARIACIONES PORCENTUALES
3 MES 2009 / 3 MES 2008
1.6%
ALIMENTOS Y BEBIDAS
0.7%
CIGARRILLOS
-3.4%
PAPEL Y CELULOSA
-3.5%
MINERALES NO METALICOS
-7.6%
INSUMOS TEXTILES
-8.2%
PETROLEO PROCESADO
-11.3%
INSUMOS QUIMICOS Y PLASTICOS
-13.1%
INDICE DE PRODUCCION INDUSTRIAL
-23.1%
METALMECANICA
-32.4%
SIDERURGIA
AUTOMOTORES -46.4%
-50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

20. Ranking 2009 tres meses abierto.
RANKING DE VARIACIONES PORCENTUALES
3 MES 2009 / 3 MES 2008
1.6%
ALIM ENTOS Y BEBIDAS
1.6%
Alimento s
1.5%
Beb id as
0.7%
CIGARRILLOS
-3.4%
PAPEL Y CELULOSA
-3.5%
M INERALES NO M ETALICOS
-7.6%
INSUM OS TEXTILES
-8.2%
PETROLEO PROCESADO
-11.3%
INSUM OS QUIM ICOS Y PLASTICOS
-2.5%
J ab ó n
-7.7%
Ag ro q uímico s
-7.7%
Quí mico s Bás ico s
-11.3%
Pet ro q uí mico s Bás ico s
-17.0%
Ins umo s Plás t ico s
-18.0%
Neumát ico s
-22.1%
Pint uras
-13.1%
INDICE DE PRODUCCION INDUSTRIAL
-23.1%
M ETALM ECANICA
-32.4%
SIDERURGIA
9.0%
Aluminio
-39.8%
Laminad o s Terminad o s en Frio
-41.7%
Acero Crud o
-43.7%
Laminad o s Terminad o s en Caliente
-51.4%
Hierro Primario
-46.4%
AUTOM OTORES
-40.4%
Aut o mó viles y Utilitario s
-75.8%
Trans p o rte d e Carg a y Pas ajero s
-90.0% -80.0% -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

21. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
10%
12%
14%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
I 03 0.5%
II -0.5%
III 3.8%
11.2%
IV
I 04 11.9%
II 9.6%
III 7.9%
IV 7.5%
I 05 7.6%
7.7%
II
III 10.4%
IV 9.9%
I 06 9.5%
II 12.8%
ALIMENTOS
III 8.0%
IV 4.3%
I 07 4.0%
II 2.8%
III 1.1%
IV 6.9%
I 08 -0.1%
II 4.5%
III 9.5%
IV -0.9%
I 09 1.6%
90
110
130
150
170
190
INDICE 1993 = 100

22. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
10%
12%
14%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
I 03 7.3%
II 8.7%
III 6.5%
7.9%
IV
I 04 11.6%
II 5.8%
III 5.7%
IV 0.1%
I 05 2.5%
7.7%
II
III 4.2%
IV 7.3%
I-3.7%
06
BEBIDAS
II 4.2%
III 8.4%
IV 5.0%
I 07 11.3%
II 7.3%
III 2.8%
IV 5.2%
I 08 1.7%
II 6.7%
III 7.2%
IV 2.3%
I 09 1.5%
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
INDICE 1993 = 100

23. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
12%
-8%
-3%
2%
7%
I 03 10.8%
II 5.7%
III 15.3%
8.1%
IV
I 04 1.4%
II -6.5%
-7.7%
III
IV
-7.0%
I 05 -6.6%
-0.9%
II
III 3.7%
IV -1.6%
I 06 7.9%
TABACO
II 10.0%
III 6.7%
IV 4.0%
I 07 2.9%
II -0.4%
III 1.9%
IV 8.1%
I 08 6.4%
II 5.5%
III 6.4%
IV 4.4%
I 09 0.7%
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
INDICE 1993 = 100

24. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-15%
5%
25%
45%
65%
85%
105%
I 03 86.8%
II 75.5%
III 36.7%
IV 40.0%
12.2%
I 04
II 3.6%
III 7.4%
IV 2.6%
I 05 4.1%
II 4.0%
III 3.2%
IV 1.7%
22.8%
I 06
II 17.2%
INSUMOS TEXTILES
III 20.0%
IV 26.4%
I 07 5.7%
II 2.8%
III 2.4%
IV 3.9%
I 08 0.3%
II 2.4%
III 6.0%
IV 0.1%
I 09 -7.6%
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
INDICE 1993 = 100

25. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
I 03 22.5%
II 13.4%
III 9.0%
IV 6.1%
I 04 8.4%
II 3.9%
III 6.4%
6.3%
IV
3.4%
I 05
4.3%
II
1.8%
III
1.2%
IV
0.1%
I 06
II 3.0%
PAPEL Y PASTA
III 10.5%
IV 8.9%
I 07 4.7%
II 3.0%
III -1.3%
-0.2%
IV
4.0%
I 08
1.5%
II
-1.9%
III
IV -7.5%
-3.4%
I 09
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
INDICE 1993 = 100

26. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
I 03 4.1%
II 5.0%
III 7.5%
IV 0.9%
I 04 5.0%
II -0.7%
III 5.5%
2.2%
IV
0.6%
I 05
-3.2%
II
-2.5%
III
2.5%
IV
3.4%
I 06
II 11.6%
III 3.9%
PETROLEO PROCESADO
IV 3.3%
I 07 6.0%
II 5.8%
III 8.7%
2.1%
IV
-2.3%
I 08
-2.4%
II
-4.7%
III
-5.1%
IV
I 09 -8.2%
100
105
110
115
120
125
INDICE 1993 = 100

27. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
I 03 16.1%
II 10.7%
III -6.7%
IV 16.6%
I 04 -5.4%
II 0.9%
III 6.4%
-5.8%
IV
2.4%
I 05
-5.6%
II
-10.6%
III
1.2%
IV
-4.1%
I 06
II 4.5%
QUIMICOS BASICOS
III 14.3%
IV -2.9%
I 07 4.8%
II -10.1%
III -18.7%
4.1%
IV
-17.0%
I 08
-8.5%
II
-3.8%
III
-24.9%
IV
-7.7%
I 09
115
125
135
145
155
165
175
INDICE 1993 = 100

28. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
I 03 18.4%
II 19.2%
III 10.4%
IV 17.7%
I 04 10.7%
II 0.6%
III -1.2%
-8.1%
IV
-0.4%
I 05
3.7%
II
-0.7%
III
4.0%
IV
-6.7%
I 06
II -5.2%
PETROQUIMICOS
III 4.1%
IV 3.2%
I 07 1.6%
II -2.4%
III -20.1%
-1.0%
IV
4.4%
I 08
-11.7%
II
8.8%
III
-16.1%
IV
-11.3%
I 09
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
INDICE 1993 = 100

29. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
I 03 2.0%
II 10.3%
III 6.9%
IV 5.4%
I 04 5.2%
II 1.1%
III -4.8%
-1.3%
IV
3.0%
I 05
-16.2%
II
8.8%
III
8.8%
IV
5.3%
I 06
PLASTICOS
II 10.7%
III -5.5%
IV -4.3%
I 07 0.6%
II 9.7%
III -1.9%
-6.4%
IV
2.0%
I 08
-4.7%
II
-6.5%
III
IV -30.6%
-17.0%
I 09
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
INDICE 1993 = 100

30. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
I 03 19.4%
II -4.4%
III 24.4%
IV 30.0%
I 04 10.3%
11.8%
II
-8.3%
III
7.6%
IV
I 05 9.7%
II -29.0%
III 7.8%
IV -19.0%
I 06 3.8%
40.8%
II
AGROQUIMICOS
2.6%
III
19.5%
IV
-30.8%
I 07
II -18.8%
III -60.9%
IV -1.9%
I 08 36.3%
-30.7%
II
27.5%
III
-50.1%
IV
-7.7%
I 09
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
INDICE 1993 = 100

31. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
I 03 12.7%
II 3.1%
III 8.7%
IV 5.7%
I 04 -1.2%
II 9.6%
III 10.0%
17.0%
IV
16.3%
I 05
15.9%
II
13.4%
III
7.4%
IV
4.9%
I 06
II 0.3%
NEUMATICOS
III 0.5%
IV 3.3%
I 07 -1.3%
II -10.2%
III 5.8%
2.7%
IV
4.5%
I 08
15.2%
II
-28.6%
III
-20.4%
IV
-18.0%
I 09
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
INDICE 1993 = 100

32. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
I 03 36.1%
II 11.6%
III 23.0%
IV 29.5%
I 04 24.4%
II 26.3%
III 19.5%
12.6%
IV
6.7%
I 05
18.4%
II
18.2%
III
22.0%
IV
19.0%
I 06
II 23.6%
III 12.2%
MINERALES NO METALICOS
IV 9.4%
I 07 3.4%
II 7.3%
III 4.0%
7.8%
IV
7.4%
I 08
-0.4%
II
5.8%
III
IV -6.0%
-3.5%
I 09
70
90
110
130
150
170
INDICE 1993 = 100

33. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
I 03 27.1%
II 11.9%
III 8.0%
IV 8.9%
I 04 1.7%
II -3.4%
III -1.5%
7.5%
IV
5.3%
I 05
8.5%
II
3.3%
III
-1.5%
IV
2.9%
I 06
II 4.4%
SIDERURGIA
III 7.7%
IV -5.5%
I 07 -6.7%
II -4.8%
III -5.0%
15.0%
IV
15.6%
I 08
14.0%
II
18.6%
III
-15.0%
IV
-32.4%
I 09
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
INDICE 1993 = 100

34. VARIACION % INTERANUAL
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
I 03 95.9%
II 106.4%
III 56.5%
IV 113.4%
68.4%
I 04
II 33.7%
III 40.1%
IV 5.8%
I 05 9.2%
II 24.4%
III 22.9%
IV 18.4%
6.2%
I 06
II -2.5%
METALMECANICA
III 7.8%
IV 12.5%
I 07 12.2%
II 13.5%
III 12.9%
IV 10.6%
I 08 11.8%
II 7.7%
III -4.6%
IV -24.2%
I 09 -23.1%
50
70
90
110
130
150
INDICE 1993 = 100