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Cup Moscow 2011 >> 1st round Case




   Reorganizing Inmarko distribution network
  in the Central, Northwest, Southern & North-
            Caucasus federal districts
                                    Team Faces
Goals & current situation analysis
 Inmarko distribution network will be restructured                     in the                              Total increase in Inmarko sales, bln rub.
 Central, Northwest, Southern & North-Caucasus federal districts to respond to                                             2011-2015
                                                                                                                       11,53 x 2 = 23,06
 its goal –    to double the sales in monetary terms in Russia up to and
 including 2015
                                                                                                      Sales increase in           Sales increase in “eastern”
 The ice cream market in Russia is developing and has a continuous 10,3%                             “western” regions             regions (all other ones)
 growth rate per year                                                                             (CFD, NWFD, SFD, NCFD)
                                                                                                                                        At the expense of
         The ice cream sales in Russia (bln rub.)                                                                                      the market increase
                    Inmarko      The ice cream market                              At the expense of             At the expense of     7,48 x 1,482 = 11,08
                                                                                  the market increase          the penetration level
                                                        76.3                      4,06 x 1,482 = 6,01                 increase
                     51.48                                                                                      11,53 – 5,56 = 5,97
                                           23.06
            11.53

                                                                                    As a result, the share of “western” districts’ sales in total Inmarko
                  2011                         2015 E                               sales will grow in next 4 years
The market is divided by 5 largest producers that together take 70% of                   Share of Inmarko region sales in total Inmarko sales
total market sales. To double its sales Inmarko should strongly                    Central FD
penetrate the market of “western” regions and take the market shares                                           2011                               2015 E
of its rivals away.                                                                North-Western
                    Producers value   Producers volume         price per 1 kg,     FD                              24%                                  26%
     Producers                                                                     South FD                                                 48%
                        share              shares                  rubles
                                                                                                                          4%
     Inmarko             22,4%              16,6%                   172                                  65%                                                  7%
                                                                                   North-                                 4%
      Nestle             14,7%               6,3%                   297                                                                                 15%
                                                                                   Caucasus FD                           3%
      Iceberry           13,5%               8,0%                   215
                                                                                   all other FD                                                    4%
   Russki Holod          6,8%                6,9%                   126
      Talosto            6,3%                5,7%                   141
      Others             36,3%              56,5%                    82          Double sales growth will be provided by the reorganization of
                                                                                 distribution network to the appropriate level.
The results of reorganization
                                             *The expected share of Inmarko in the district in 2015




                                           69% TT
                                           14% MT    27%* = 1,5 bln rub.
            7 795 pallets                  17% KA


                                                                  Own warehouses in:
                       70% TT
                                                                    Moscow           8 000 pallets
      32 601           15% MT        23%* = 6,03 bln rub.
      pallets          14% KA                                       Voronezh         3 500 pallets
                                                                    SPB              6 000 pallets
                            80% TT
                            13% MT     35%* = 3,56 bln rub.         Rostov-na-Donu 4 000 pallets
        12 204              7% KA
        pallets                                                     Volgograd        3 500 pallets
                                                                    Krasnodar        4 000 pallets
        4 730          82% TT
                                                                    Yaroslavl        3 000 pallets
        pallets        13% MT        18%* = 0,89 bln rub.
                       5% KA                                         Kaluga          2 000 pallets
Types of channels of sales
          Traditional trade                          Modern trade                              Key accounts

+  The largest part of total                +     Ideal   for   spontaneously        + Provide strategic partnership
 demand-55-85 %                              purchases
+ Stalls, Street
               traders, grocery                                                      +  In some cases production is
 store – represents Inmarko’s               + Wide range of Inmarko brands            delivered to their warehouses
 logo

+   Most promising channel for
                                            -  Low penetration into country          + Fast-growing segment
 ice-cream                                   area
                                                                                      - For take-home consumption, so
- Little amount of purchases per                                                      its share is low
 outlet




                   1                                        2                                            3

    High-Priority channel                       Medium-priority channel                      Low-priority channel
    (It is necessary to settle branches   (Most important in urban areas, such as Moscow   (But we should pay attention to this
    within traditional trade segment)     and St.Petersburg)                               channel in some areas with high
                                                                                           share of take-home consumption)
Opening branches: own distribution network
The example of branch functioning for a representative city
                                                                                                          Assumptions:
                                                                                          • there are 80 supermarkets (50 of which
                                                       Costs per month:
              500 000 people                                                              are large network stores)
                                                     driver ‘s salary (50 000)            • there are 40 restaurants and cafes
                                                                  x                       ( including 15 network ones)
            370 ml rub. (sales of ice cream)                 10 trucks                    • there are 150 retail outlets and small
                                                                  +                       shops
            consumed:                            sales specialist’s salary (35 000)       *the Inmarko logistics service delivers
            2000 tn                                               x                       goods to the distribution warehouse of the
            8000 pallets                                  10 specialists                  network store. Inmarko also delivers goods
                                                                  +                       and provides chests to small shops.
             1150 pallets                              Overheads (200 000)
  Inmarko                                               1 050 000 rub.

                                                       One-time costs :
                                                                                                        Tula
                                                                                                                  Yaroslavl
  1            for 25 sales otlets                            20 stalls                       Ryazan
                                                                  X                                       Lipetsk
  20 Inmarko stalls                                          Price stall                               Voronezh
                                                                  +                           Rostov
      3 Sales specialists (branches) + 7 sales               10 trucks                Krasnodar
      specialists (others)                                        x
      20 stall sellers                                     Price of truck
                                                                  +                                    Astrahan
                                                            Staff search
                                                                  +
                                                              License
Own distribution network
  The influence of factors on the choice of kind of distribution   If there are several distributors in a region, we choose the one with the
    network ("+" - the preference of own network, "-" - the        highest level og CCFOT, as our main goal is to foothold on a region market.
             preferences of distributors services)
                                                                     North-Western FD
                          Distance (the              Desired
Federal District       closeness to large         influence on                                                                   Sales in total
                            markets)                  prices                                                                    Inmarko sales
                                                                             Disributor                       Area
                                                                                                                                  in Federal
CFD                             +                       +                                                                          Disctrict
NWFD                            -                        -
                                                                     Beta                        Archangelsk, Severodvinsk                 5%
SFD                             +                       +
                                                                     Distributor № 4             Syktykar                                  4%
NCFD                            -                        -
                                                                     LED                         Vologda Cherepove                         6%
We choose to use distributor services, when sales in                 Distributor № 5             Murmansk Apatity                          4%
some region are not very important in comparison with
total sales of the company. Till 2015 Inmarko expects
to increase its share of region sales in total region sales          South FD
in each “western” region. Although, the share of                     Distributor № 20            Elista, Astrahan'                        15%
Inmarko sales in North-Western FD and North-
Caucasus FD in total Inmarko sales will amount to 6,5%
and 3,9% correspondingly => We prefer to use                         North-Caucasus FD
distributor services instead of creating its own
distribution network with a sharp increase in costs.                                             Grozny, Makhachkala, Nazran'
                                                                     Distributor № 22                                                     50%
                                                                                                 Vladikavkaz, Nalchik,
We also prefer distributors when the ice-cream market in             Distributor № 23            Cherkessk                                33%
some far regions or cities is quite large. In this case it is
more beneficial for Inmarko to conclude a contract with                                          Stavropol, Region of
                                                                     Distributor № 21            Caucasus Mineral Waters                  13%
an exclusive distributor, that has its own transport and
storages and allows to maintain the appropriate price                Central FD (because of lack of own resources)
level on different brands of ice-cream.
                                                                     Distributor № 17            Moscow                                   18%
                                                                     Central Logistic            Moscow, The Moscow region,
                                                                     Company                     Vladimir                                 30%
Risks assessment
                                                      risk               threats   Avoiding risk
Threats




                                                      1) Overpricing               - Recommended level of prices
                                                      by a distributor             - Bonuses for the plan fulfillment
                          7                           2) Loss of a                 Provide maximum discounts to the
             2                                        major                        largest distributors
             5                    1                   distributor
                 3                                    3) Weak                      marketing campaign in the region
                                                      development                  before entering
                      4                               of the brand in
                                        6             the region
                                                      4) Long                      Standardize the contracts
                                                      negotiations
                                                      with the dealer
                                                      5) Increasing                Monitor competitors, make
                     Probability of risk appearance   competition                  acquisitions if possible
                                                      6) Increase of               Making long-term contracts
                                                      rental cost of
                                                      storage and
          High risk                                   trucks
                                                      7) Decline in                Promotion of cheaper brands
          Average risk                                demand
                                                      caused by
                                                      external shocks
          Low risk
Appendix 1. The schedule of goods delivery to distribution warehouse
         amount of goods     amount of                                           The warehouse should be of size suitable for keeping the
           delivered to    realized goods      kept in the warehouse (%)
          warehouse (%)          l%)                                             excess of production (the difference between produced
                                                                                 and realized goods).
sept             8,3             4                       4,3 (1)
                                                                                 The factory in Tula produces
 oct             8,3             4                   0,3 (2) + 8,3(1)
 nov             8,3             5                  3,6 (2) + 8,3 (1)
                                                                                 8,3% = 100%/12m
 dec             8,3             5                  6,9 (2) + 8,3 (1)
                                                                                 of annual production per month.
 jan             8,3             5              1,9 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1)
                                                                                 Assumptions:
 feb             8,3             5              5,2 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1)
                                                                                 1.   The warehouse becomes empty to the end of the
mar              8,3             6          7,5 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1) = 24,1        season – so September is the time origin
 apr             8,3             9              6,8 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1)      2.   Earlier produced goods are the first to be realized
may              8,3            13              2,1 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1)
 jun             8,3            14                  4,7 (2) + 8,3 (1)
                                                                                  We need that amount of warehouses in the
 jul             8,3            19                       2,3 (1)
                                                                                  Central, Northwest, Southern & North-Caucasus
 aug             8,3            12                          0
                                                                                  districts in total
                                                                                  which will be capable of keeping 24,1% of
(*) – amount of months the production was
                                                                                  annual production.
kept in the distribution warehouse



 2011                  46 080 pallets = 48 000 tn.* x 24,1%                                        2015           92 160 pallets
 are held in the warehouses


* 48 000 tn. = 60 mln L.
Appendix 2. Costs: own VS rented transport
                        Own transport                                                                                             demand covered by our own

            for transportation between      for transportation within the          Costs                                           within city
                                                                                                                                               trucks
                                                                                                                                                   between cities
                       cities                         same city

             Hyundai HD500 with trailer
                                                                            Between cities:                               Sept.       100%              100%
 model                                      Hyundai HD250 (18 pallets)                                                    Oct.        100%              100%
            Shmitz Cargobull (28 pallets)

  price
useful life
            3 610 000 rub. + 73 000 euro
                       5 years
                                                     113 500 $
                                                     5 years
                                                                                              x2,7                        Nov.        100%              100%

 mileage                                                                          Own           Rented                    Dec.        100%              100%
                     800 000 km                   250 000 km
(5 years)                                                                                                                 Jan.        100%              100%
truckers'                                                                                                                 Feb.        100%              100%
  salary    50 000 x 2 persons = 100 000
                                                   50000 rub.
                                                                            Within the city:                              Mar.         83%              100%
   (per                  rub.
 month)                                                                                                                   Apr.         56%              100%
fuel (per 27 rub./L. x 0,37 L/km x 14 000 27 rub./L. x 0,3 L/km x 4 000
 month)                   km                            km                                 x1,4                           may
                                                                                                                          Jun.
                                                                                                                                       38%
                                                                                                                                       36%
                                                                                                                                                         69%
                                                                                                                                                         64%
 service          1/2 of fuel costs             1/2 of fuel costs                                                         Jul.         26%               47%
 TOTAL
                                                                                  Own          Rented
                 418 891 rub.                  151 378 rub.                                                               Aug.         42%               75%
  costs
                      Rented transport
 Tula-Rostov
                       50 000 rub.
  (925 km)                                   price per day (8h) = 7 000
Tula-Moscow                                             rub
                       20 000 rub.
  (184 km)
average price
                      8137,49 rub.           price per month = 217 000
 per 100 km
 TOTAL costs       1 139 248 rub.                217 000 rub.
                                                                                          The optimal amount*                     of purchased & rented
                                                                                          transport
 The issue
 Using our own transport is more profitable in case of
 continuous (uninterrupted) use.
                                                                                          Between cities      78%        purchased         22% rented
 But due to the increase in demand in summer & its
 winter decrease most of purchased transport stands                                       Within the city     57% purchased 43%                     rented
 idle winter or it could be scarcity of transport in
 summer.                                                                                                    *calculations are presented in the attached excel file
Appendix 3. Key Accounts



             2011                            Expectations
~ 90   large shops (X5 Retail Group,     Increase of concentration up to 60%
    Auchan, Magnet & others)
                                          Some Key Accounts will enter
10%  of all Inmarko sales (40% of        the cities with population of 200 000
    Modern Trade)                                       people

The main type of sales – the ice cream
    for home consumption

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Cup Moscow 2011 >> 1st round Case Reorganizing Inmarko

  • 1. Cup Moscow 2011 >> 1st round Case Reorganizing Inmarko distribution network in the Central, Northwest, Southern & North- Caucasus federal districts Team Faces
  • 2. Goals & current situation analysis Inmarko distribution network will be restructured in the Total increase in Inmarko sales, bln rub. Central, Northwest, Southern & North-Caucasus federal districts to respond to 2011-2015 11,53 x 2 = 23,06 its goal – to double the sales in monetary terms in Russia up to and including 2015 Sales increase in Sales increase in “eastern” The ice cream market in Russia is developing and has a continuous 10,3% “western” regions regions (all other ones) growth rate per year (CFD, NWFD, SFD, NCFD) At the expense of The ice cream sales in Russia (bln rub.) the market increase Inmarko The ice cream market At the expense of At the expense of 7,48 x 1,482 = 11,08 the market increase the penetration level 76.3 4,06 x 1,482 = 6,01 increase 51.48 11,53 – 5,56 = 5,97 23.06 11.53 As a result, the share of “western” districts’ sales in total Inmarko 2011 2015 E sales will grow in next 4 years The market is divided by 5 largest producers that together take 70% of Share of Inmarko region sales in total Inmarko sales total market sales. To double its sales Inmarko should strongly Central FD penetrate the market of “western” regions and take the market shares 2011 2015 E of its rivals away. North-Western Producers value Producers volume price per 1 kg, FD 24% 26% Producers South FD 48% share shares rubles 4% Inmarko 22,4% 16,6% 172 65% 7% North- 4% Nestle 14,7% 6,3% 297 15% Caucasus FD 3% Iceberry 13,5% 8,0% 215 all other FD 4% Russki Holod 6,8% 6,9% 126 Talosto 6,3% 5,7% 141 Others 36,3% 56,5% 82 Double sales growth will be provided by the reorganization of distribution network to the appropriate level.
  • 3. The results of reorganization *The expected share of Inmarko in the district in 2015 69% TT 14% MT 27%* = 1,5 bln rub. 7 795 pallets 17% KA Own warehouses in: 70% TT Moscow 8 000 pallets 32 601 15% MT 23%* = 6,03 bln rub. pallets 14% KA Voronezh 3 500 pallets SPB 6 000 pallets 80% TT 13% MT 35%* = 3,56 bln rub. Rostov-na-Donu 4 000 pallets 12 204 7% KA pallets Volgograd 3 500 pallets Krasnodar 4 000 pallets 4 730 82% TT Yaroslavl 3 000 pallets pallets 13% MT 18%* = 0,89 bln rub. 5% KA Kaluga 2 000 pallets
  • 4. Types of channels of sales Traditional trade Modern trade Key accounts + The largest part of total + Ideal for spontaneously + Provide strategic partnership demand-55-85 % purchases + Stalls, Street traders, grocery + In some cases production is store – represents Inmarko’s + Wide range of Inmarko brands delivered to their warehouses logo + Most promising channel for - Low penetration into country + Fast-growing segment ice-cream area - For take-home consumption, so - Little amount of purchases per its share is low outlet 1 2 3 High-Priority channel Medium-priority channel Low-priority channel (It is necessary to settle branches (Most important in urban areas, such as Moscow (But we should pay attention to this within traditional trade segment) and St.Petersburg) channel in some areas with high share of take-home consumption)
  • 5. Opening branches: own distribution network The example of branch functioning for a representative city Assumptions: • there are 80 supermarkets (50 of which Costs per month: 500 000 people are large network stores) driver ‘s salary (50 000) • there are 40 restaurants and cafes x ( including 15 network ones) 370 ml rub. (sales of ice cream) 10 trucks • there are 150 retail outlets and small + shops consumed: sales specialist’s salary (35 000) *the Inmarko logistics service delivers 2000 tn x goods to the distribution warehouse of the 8000 pallets 10 specialists network store. Inmarko also delivers goods + and provides chests to small shops. 1150 pallets Overheads (200 000) Inmarko 1 050 000 rub. One-time costs : Tula Yaroslavl 1 for 25 sales otlets 20 stalls Ryazan X Lipetsk 20 Inmarko stalls Price stall Voronezh + Rostov 3 Sales specialists (branches) + 7 sales 10 trucks Krasnodar specialists (others) x 20 stall sellers Price of truck + Astrahan Staff search + License
  • 6. Own distribution network The influence of factors on the choice of kind of distribution If there are several distributors in a region, we choose the one with the network ("+" - the preference of own network, "-" - the highest level og CCFOT, as our main goal is to foothold on a region market. preferences of distributors services) North-Western FD Distance (the Desired Federal District closeness to large influence on Sales in total markets) prices Inmarko sales Disributor Area in Federal CFD + + Disctrict NWFD - - Beta Archangelsk, Severodvinsk 5% SFD + + Distributor № 4 Syktykar 4% NCFD - - LED Vologda Cherepove 6% We choose to use distributor services, when sales in Distributor № 5 Murmansk Apatity 4% some region are not very important in comparison with total sales of the company. Till 2015 Inmarko expects to increase its share of region sales in total region sales South FD in each “western” region. Although, the share of Distributor № 20 Elista, Astrahan' 15% Inmarko sales in North-Western FD and North- Caucasus FD in total Inmarko sales will amount to 6,5% and 3,9% correspondingly => We prefer to use North-Caucasus FD distributor services instead of creating its own distribution network with a sharp increase in costs. Grozny, Makhachkala, Nazran' Distributor № 22 50% Vladikavkaz, Nalchik, We also prefer distributors when the ice-cream market in Distributor № 23 Cherkessk 33% some far regions or cities is quite large. In this case it is more beneficial for Inmarko to conclude a contract with Stavropol, Region of Distributor № 21 Caucasus Mineral Waters 13% an exclusive distributor, that has its own transport and storages and allows to maintain the appropriate price Central FD (because of lack of own resources) level on different brands of ice-cream. Distributor № 17 Moscow 18% Central Logistic Moscow, The Moscow region, Company Vladimir 30%
  • 7. Risks assessment risk threats Avoiding risk Threats 1) Overpricing - Recommended level of prices by a distributor - Bonuses for the plan fulfillment 7 2) Loss of a Provide maximum discounts to the 2 major largest distributors 5 1 distributor 3 3) Weak marketing campaign in the region development before entering 4 of the brand in 6 the region 4) Long Standardize the contracts negotiations with the dealer 5) Increasing Monitor competitors, make Probability of risk appearance competition acquisitions if possible 6) Increase of Making long-term contracts rental cost of storage and High risk trucks 7) Decline in Promotion of cheaper brands Average risk demand caused by external shocks Low risk
  • 8. Appendix 1. The schedule of goods delivery to distribution warehouse amount of goods amount of The warehouse should be of size suitable for keeping the delivered to realized goods kept in the warehouse (%) warehouse (%) l%) excess of production (the difference between produced and realized goods). sept 8,3 4 4,3 (1) The factory in Tula produces oct 8,3 4 0,3 (2) + 8,3(1) nov 8,3 5 3,6 (2) + 8,3 (1) 8,3% = 100%/12m dec 8,3 5 6,9 (2) + 8,3 (1) of annual production per month. jan 8,3 5 1,9 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1) Assumptions: feb 8,3 5 5,2 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1) 1. The warehouse becomes empty to the end of the mar 8,3 6 7,5 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1) = 24,1 season – so September is the time origin apr 8,3 9 6,8 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1) 2. Earlier produced goods are the first to be realized may 8,3 13 2,1 (3) + 8,3 (2) + 8,3 (1) jun 8,3 14 4,7 (2) + 8,3 (1) We need that amount of warehouses in the jul 8,3 19 2,3 (1) Central, Northwest, Southern & North-Caucasus aug 8,3 12 0 districts in total which will be capable of keeping 24,1% of (*) – amount of months the production was annual production. kept in the distribution warehouse 2011 46 080 pallets = 48 000 tn.* x 24,1% 2015 92 160 pallets are held in the warehouses * 48 000 tn. = 60 mln L.
  • 9. Appendix 2. Costs: own VS rented transport Own transport demand covered by our own for transportation between for transportation within the Costs within city trucks between cities cities same city Hyundai HD500 with trailer Between cities: Sept. 100% 100% model Hyundai HD250 (18 pallets) Oct. 100% 100% Shmitz Cargobull (28 pallets) price useful life 3 610 000 rub. + 73 000 euro 5 years 113 500 $ 5 years x2,7 Nov. 100% 100% mileage Own Rented Dec. 100% 100% 800 000 km 250 000 km (5 years) Jan. 100% 100% truckers' Feb. 100% 100% salary 50 000 x 2 persons = 100 000 50000 rub. Within the city: Mar. 83% 100% (per rub. month) Apr. 56% 100% fuel (per 27 rub./L. x 0,37 L/km x 14 000 27 rub./L. x 0,3 L/km x 4 000 month) km km x1,4 may Jun. 38% 36% 69% 64% service 1/2 of fuel costs 1/2 of fuel costs Jul. 26% 47% TOTAL Own Rented 418 891 rub. 151 378 rub. Aug. 42% 75% costs Rented transport Tula-Rostov 50 000 rub. (925 km) price per day (8h) = 7 000 Tula-Moscow rub 20 000 rub. (184 km) average price 8137,49 rub. price per month = 217 000 per 100 km TOTAL costs 1 139 248 rub. 217 000 rub. The optimal amount* of purchased & rented transport The issue Using our own transport is more profitable in case of continuous (uninterrupted) use. Between cities 78% purchased 22% rented But due to the increase in demand in summer & its winter decrease most of purchased transport stands Within the city 57% purchased 43% rented idle winter or it could be scarcity of transport in summer. *calculations are presented in the attached excel file
  • 10. Appendix 3. Key Accounts 2011 Expectations ~ 90 large shops (X5 Retail Group, Increase of concentration up to 60% Auchan, Magnet & others) Some Key Accounts will enter 10% of all Inmarko sales (40% of the cities with population of 200 000 Modern Trade) people The main type of sales – the ice cream for home consumption