The document is a collection of slides from a presentation on the US housing market in July 2013. It includes data and forecasts from various surveys and analysts on topics like home price appreciation trends, mortgage rates, housing inventory levels, and home sales. Several slides provide projections that the housing recovery will continue in the coming years, supported by falling foreclosure rates and home price gains expected to outpace inflation.

2. KCM Divided into Three Sections

4. Home Price
Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel
of over one hundred
economists, real
estate experts and
investment & market
strategists.

5. 3.6%
7.9%
-5.8%
4.7% 4.7%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Pre-Bubble
(1987-1999)
Bubble
(Jan '00-May '07)
Bust
(June '07-Oct'11)
Recovery to Date
(Nov '11-June'13 )
Expectations
(2013-2017)
Average Annual Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013

6. Projected Percentage Increase
Home Price Expectation Survey
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013

7. Cumulative Appreciation by 2017
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013

8. Percentage Appreciation by Survey
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013

9. Distressed Property Numbers Diving
Distressed inventories have fallen
14.4% so far this year
Completed foreclosures are
down 20% from last year
National foreclosure inventory is
down 28% from last year
Seriously delinquent loans are
down 23.7% from a year ago
-14.4%
-20%
-28%
-23.7%
CoreLogic 7/2013

10. CoreLogic 7/2013
Foreclosure Inventory by State

11. What Housing
Bubble?

13. “Rising home prices have swept
the country…However, these
runaway price gains won’t
last: both rising mortgage
rates and slowly growing
inventories should start
tapping the brakes on
home prices, preventing
them from rising back
into bubble territory.”
Jed Kolko
Trulia’s Chief Economist
Trulia 7/2013

14. 6.00 $ 1,079 $ 1,109 $ 1,139 $ 1,169 $ 1,199
5.75 $ 1,050 $ 1,080 $ 1,109 $ 1,138 $ 1,167
5.50 $ 1,022 $ 1,050 $ 1,079 $ 1,107 $ 1,136
5.25 $ 994 $ 1,022 $ 1,049 $ 1,077 $ 1,104
5.00 $ 966 $ 993 $ 1,020 $ 1,047 $ 1,074
4.75 $ 939 $ 965 $ 991 $ 1,017 $ 1,043
4.50 $ 912 $ 937 $ 963 $ 988 $ 1,013
$ 180,000 $ 185,000 $ 190,000 $ 195,000 $ 200,000
-10% -7.5% -5% -2.5%
Buyer’s Purchasing PowerRATE
Principal and Interest Payments
rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

15. Buyer’s Purchasing Power
6.00 $ 2,158 $ 2,218 $ 2,278 $ 2,338 $ 2,398
5.75 $ 2,100 $ 2,160 $ 2,218 $ 2,276 $ 2,334
5.50 $ 2,044 $ 2,100 $ 2,158 $ 2,214 $ 2,272
5.25 $ 1,988 $ 2,044 $ 2,098 $ 2,154 $ 2,208
5.00 $ 1,932 $ 1,986 $ 2,040 $ 2,094 $ 2,148
4.75 $ 1,878 $ 1,930 $ 1,982 $ 2,034 $ 2,086
4.50 $ 1,824 $ 1,874 $ 1,926 $ 1,976 $ 2,026
$ 360,000 $ 370,000 $ 380,000 $ 390,000 $ 400,000
-10% -7.5% -5% -2.5%
RATE
Principal and Interest Payments
rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

16. Buyer’s Purchasing Power
6.00 $ 3,237 $ 3,328 $ 3,417 $ 3,507 $ 3,597
5.75 $ 3,151 $ 3,239 $ 3,326 $ 3,414 $ 3,501
5.50 $ 3,066 $ 3,151 $ 3,236 $ 3,322 $ 3,407
5.25 $ 2,982 $ 3,065 $ 3,148 $ 3,230 $ 3,313
5.00 $ 2,899 $ 2,979 $ 3,060 $ 3,140 $ 3,221
4.75 $ 2,817 $ 2,895 $ 2,973 $ 3,052 $ 3,130
4.50 $ 2,736 $ 2,812 $ 2,888 $ 2,964 $ 3,040
$ 540,000 $ 555,000 $ 570,000 $ 585,000 $ 600,000
-10% -7.5% -5% -2.5%
RATE
Principal and Interest Payments
rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

17. Buyer’s Purchasing Power
6.00 $ 4,317 $ 4,437 $ 4,557 $ 4,676 $ 4,796
5.75 $ 4,201 $ 4,318 $ 4,435 $ 4,552 $ 4,669
5.50 $ 4,088 $ 4,202 $ 4,315 $ 4,429 $ 4,542
5.25 $ 3,976 $ 4,086 $ 4,197 $ 4,307 $ 4,418
5.00 $ 3,865 $ 3,972 $ 4,080 $ 4,187 $ 4,295
4.75 $ 3,756 $ 3,860 $ 3,965 $ 4,069 $ 4,173
4.50 $ 3,648 $ 3,749 $ 3,851 $ 3,952 $ 4,053
$ 720,000 $ 740,000 $ 760,000 $ 780,000 $ 800,000
-10% -7.5% -5% -2.5%
RATE
Principal and Interest Payments
rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

18. Buyer’s Purchasing Power
6.00 $ 5,396 $ 5,546 $ 5,696 $ 5,846 $ 5,996
5.75 $ 5,252 $ 5,398 $ 5,544 $ 5,690 $ 5,836
5.50 $ 5,110 $ 5,252 $ 5,394 $ 5,536 $ 5,678
5.25 $ 4,970 $ 5,108 $ 5,246 $ 5,384 $ 5,522
5.00 $ 4,831 $ 4,966 $ 5,100 $ 5,234 $ 5,368
4.75 $ 4,695 $ 4,825 $ 4,956 $ 5,086 $ 5,216
4.50 $ 4,560 $ 4,687 $ 4,814 $ 4,940 $ 5,067
$ 900,000 $ 925,000 $ 950,000 $ 975,000 $ 1,000,000
-10% -7.5% -5% -2.5%
RATE
Principal and Interest Payments
rounded to the nearest dollar amount.

19. Calculated Risk 7/2013

20. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History
1/2012 – 7/2013
Federal Reserve 7/2013

22. Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
3Q 2014
Fannie Mae 5.0%
National Assoc of Realtors 4.8%
Freddie Mac 5.1%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 4.9%
7/2013

23. Date Price
Interest
Rate
P&I
Last Year $400,000 3.5% $1,796.18
This Year $420,000 4.5% $2,128.08
Difference in Payment - $331.90
The Cost of Waiting a Year

24. Rate $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000
6.00 599.55 1,199.10 1,798.65 2,398.20 2,997.75
5.75 583.57 1,167.15 1,750.72 2,334.29 2,917.86
5.50 567.79 1,135.58 1,703.37 2,271.16 2,838.95
5.25 552.20 1,104.41 1,656.61 2,208.81 2,761.02
5.00 536.82 1,073.64 1,610.46 2,147.29 2,684.11
4.75 521.65 1,043.29 1,564.94 2,086.59 2,608.24
4.50 506.69 1,013.37 1,520.06 2,026.74 2,533.43
Mortgage Payment Differences

25. $2,812.47
$1,715.63
$1,471.66
$1,266.71
1983
1993
2003
2013
Monthly payment on a
$250,000
MORTGAGE
(Principal & Interest)

26. Number of BUYERS out
of 100 WILLING TO bid
OVER asking price
1-5%over asking price
10+%6-10%over asking price over asking price
Trulia 7/2013

27. Migration Patterns
www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

29. 41.7
20.9
-7.9
56.1
-30
0
30
60
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – July 2013
MSN Money, Case Shiller 7/2013
Return on Investment

30. 90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Pending Home Sales
NAR 7/2013
100 = Historically Healthy Level

31. 80
90
100
110
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2012 2011
January 2012 – December 2012
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 7/2013

32. NAR 7/2013
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
15%

33. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
NAR 7/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

34. S&P Case Shiller 7/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

35. MARKETING

36. Opening Doors with
POWERFUL
MARKETING

37. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 – July 2013
41.7%
20.9%
-7.9%
56.1%
Dow Jones S&P
NASDAQ
Real Estate
MSN Money, Case Shiller

38. 3.6%
7.9%
4.7%4.7%
Average Annual
APPRECIATION
-5.8%
Pre-BUBBLE BUBBLE RECOVERY
TO DATE
PROJECTED
NOW to 2017
BUST
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013

39. Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2017
19.4%
35%
23.7%
13.1%
Pre-Bubble
Trend
Bulls BearsAll
Projections

40. Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
PROJECTED
Percentage Appreciation
6.7%
4.2%
3.6% 3.5%
2013
3.4%
2014 2015 2016 2017

41. “The housing market
has bottomed. It's not
too late to get
involved. I still think
buying a home is the
best investment any
individual can make.
Affordability is still at
an all-time high. Buy a
home and, if you can,
buy a second home.”
John Paulson

42. https://www.facebook.com/SeattleFirstTimeHomeBuyers

43. https://www.facebook.com/ShaunFarrellRealEstate

44. http://yournaperville.com/mortgage-rates-and-impact-on-buying-a-
naperville-home-july-2013

47. XXX

48. Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
4-8
Home Price Expectation Survey, Average
Annual Appreciation, Cumulative
Appreciation by 2017, Percentage
Appreciation by Survey
https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
9 Distressed Property Numbers Diving
http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2013.pdf
10 Foreclosure Inventory by State
http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-june-2013.pdf
11 What Housing Bubble?
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/experts-see-risk-of-housing-bubble-resulting-from-fed-policies-2013-0
13 Jed Kolko Quote http://info.trulia.com/trulia-price-and-rent-monitors-jun-2013
19 Dramatic Mortgage Rate Increases http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/house-prices-and-mortgage-rates.html
20, 21
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History,
Recent Rate Movement
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
22 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
25
Monthly Payment on a $250,000
Mortgage
http://www.bankrate.com

49. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
26 Buyers Willing to Bid Over Asking Price http://info.trulia.com/american-dream-survey-summer-2013
27 Migration Patterns http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
29 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
30, 31,
32, 33
Pending Home Sales, Percentage of
Distressed Property Sales, Months
Inventory of Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.org
34 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-
assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf
37 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
39, 40
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2017,
Projected Percentage Appreciation
https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2013_HPE_Survey.php
41 John Paulson Quote http://www.cnbc.com/id/100893817
42 Seattle First Home Buyers https://www.facebook.com/SeattleFirstTimeHomeBuyers
43 Shaun Farrell Real Estate https://www.facebook.com/ShaunFarrellRealEstate
44 YourNaperville.com Blog Post http://yournaperville.com/mortgage-rates-and-impact-on-buying-a-naperville-home-july-2013
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

50. The key to
success
is developing
TRUST