2. KCM Divided into
Three Sections

5. Be their ‘Expert’
This is a person to whom
people will turn for advice
on difficult or complex
real estate decisions.

6. 90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 2/2014

7. Existing Home Sales
NAR 2/2014

8. WEST
- 8.1%
MIDWEST
+2.0%
SOUTH +3.6%
NORTHEAST
+7.1%
U.S. + .8%
Year-over-Year as per
NAR’s 2013 4Q Report
% Change in House Sales

9. NAR 2/2014
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
15%
23%

10. Date Sales % Non-Distressed Total Non-distressed
Jan ’13 4.87M 77% 3.75M
Jan ‘14 4.62M 85% 3.93M
Non-Distressed Sales Still Up

11. -19.1%
-6%
3.9%
15.2%
19.4%
37.5%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% Sales +/- -19.1% -6% 3.9% 15.2% 19.4% 37.5%
Percentage Change
in Sales from a Year
Ago by Price Range

12. Bill McBride
Calculated Risk Finance & Economics
The bottom line is the housing
weakness should be temporary. There
should be more inventory this year,
price increases should slow, and sales
volumes increase.

13. 8.2% 7.9%
5.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
January 2013 December 2013 January 2014
Institutional Investor Sales
RealtyTrac 2/2014

14. WHO ARE THEY?
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS
NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers

15. WHAT ARE SOURCES OF DOWNPAYMENT?
Savings
Gift from
Relative or Friend
Sale of Stocks or Bonds
401k/Pension Fund
Loan from
Relative or Friend
Inheritance
IRA
78%
27%
9%
8%
7%
4%
3%
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS
NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers

16. Cut Spending
on Luxury Items
Cut Spending
on Entertainment
Cut Spending
on Clothes
Cancelled
Vacation Plans
Income from
a 2nd
Job
Sold/Didn’t
Buy a Car
33%
27%
13%
9%
5%
40%
WHAT SACRIFICES DO THEY MAKE TO PURCHASE?
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS
NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers

17. FINANCING
95%
5%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Mortgage Cash
FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS
NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers

18. 3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
2013 - 2014
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 2/2014

19. Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
1Q 2015
Fannie Mae 4.9%
National Assoc of Realtors 5.5%
Freddie Mac 5.1%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1%
2/2014

20. 3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-14 1Q 2015
P
Freddie Mac 2/2014
2003 - 2013
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates

22. Buying is CHEAPER than
renting in ALL of the 100
largest metros by
an average of… 38%
Trulia 2/2014

23. $300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
The Increasing Cost of Renting
Median Asking Rent
1988-2013
Census Bureau 2014

25. 3.8%
6.6%
Bachelor's Degree or More U.S.
Unemployment Rate: Millennials Ages 25-32 with
a Bachelor’s Degree vs. U.S. Rate
Bureau of Labor Statistics & Pew Research 2/2014

26. $45,500
$40,872
Bachelor's Degree or More U.S.
Median Annual Full Time Wage: Millennials
Ages 25-32 with Bachelor’s Degree vs. U.S. Rate
Bureau of Labor Statistics & Pew Research 2/2014

27. 29%
Have no student debt
$29.4K
Average Student Debt
$335.33
Typical Payment
The Project on
Student Debt

28. Median HOUSEHOLD Income of Young Adults
(25-32 years old) Living in their Parents’ Home?
Pew Research 2/2014
$113,181

29. Millennials Belief in Real Estate and its Agents
Optimistic About
Real Estate In 2014 70%
Look To An Agent
For Sound Guidance 62%
Think A Good Agent Can
Maximize The Investment 70%

30. 74%
4% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Email Social Media Text
Method Used by
18-29 Year Olds to
Download Information

31. Home
Prices

32. Year-over-Year Price Change by Region
FHFA 2013 4Q

33. Year-over-Year Price Change by State
FHFA 2013 4Q

34. Home Price
Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel
of over one hundred
economists, real
estate experts and
investment & market
strategists.

35. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q
Average Annual %
APPRECIATION

36. 4.5
4.0
3.7 3.7 3.8
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PROJECTED
Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q

37. Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
19.4%
28.4%
19.7%
10.9%
Pre-Bubble
Trend
Bulls All
Projections
Bears

39. 0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
S&P Case Shiller 2/2014
Year-over-Year Change in Prices

40. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
49.2
33.3
9.3
65.7
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – February 2014
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

41. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 2/2014

42. -24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%
-13%
-7.6%
-5%
-6.2%
1.8% 0.9%
5%
1.6%
7.3%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3%
NAR 2/2014
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

43. 4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months =
Normal Market Inventory
NAR 2/2014

44. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 2/2014

45. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
6, 7, 9,
42, 43, 44
Pending Home Sales, Existing Home Sales,
% Distressed Property Sales, Year-over-Year
Inventory, Months Inventory Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.org/
8 % Change in House Sales
http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2013/12/existing-home-sales-decline-in-november-but-st
10 Non-Distressed Sales Still Up
http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/02/existing-home-sales-drop-in-january-while-prices
11
Percentage Change in Sales from a Year
Ago by Price Range
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/02/23/a-closer-look-at-the-latest-ehs-release/
12 Bill McBride Quote
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/housing-weakness-temporary-or-enduring.html?utm
13 Institutional Investor Sales http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report
14-17 First Time Homebuyers http://www.realtor.org/ - NAR’s 2013 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
18, 20 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
19 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1
22 Buying is Cheaper http://trends.truliablog.com/category/rent-vs-buy-index/
23 Increasing Cost of Renting http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

46. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
25, 26 Millennials: Unemployment & Income
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-college/
http://www.bls.gov/
27 Project on Student Debt http://projectonstudentdebt.org/
28
Median Household Income of Millennials Living at
Home
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/02/11/the-rising-cost-of-not-going-to-
college/6/#appendix-c-young-adult-living-arrangements-and-household-incomes
29 Millennials Belief in Real Estate & It’s Agents
https://www.prudentialrealestate.com/Portals/0/Documents/Prudential
%20Q4%20Consumer%20Outlook%20Infographic.jpg
30 Methods Used to Download
http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/files/2012/08/email-vs-social-media-
marketing.jpeg
32, 33 Year-Over-Year Price Changes Regional & State www.fhfa.gov
35, 36,
37
Avg. Annual % Appreciation, Projected %
Appreciation, Cumulative Appreciation
https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
39 Year-over-Year Change in Price http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
40 Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
http://money.msn.com/
41 Case-Shiller Home Price Index
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-
assets/resources/public/documents/79678_cshomeprice-release-0225.pdf
48, 51 The Power of Using Visuals http://www.macrovu.com/VTVCInterEffectiveness.html
49, 50 The Power of Using Visuals https://www.osha.gov/doc/outreachtraining/htmlfiles/traintec.html

48. The Power of Using Visuals
Percentage Making a Decision
Immediately after Presentation
Percentage Increase Seeing
Presenter as More Convincing
64% 34%
24%
MacroVU
Visual
Learning
Compared Identical
Presentations
With and Without
Visuals
Amount of Time the
Presentation was Reduced By

49. The Power of Using Visuals
83%
11%
3.5% 1.5% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Visual Sound Smell Touch Taste
Studies by Educational
Researchers Suggest that
Human Learning
Occurs by Approximately
these Percentages
OSHA

50. The Power of Using Visuals
10%
35%
65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Oral Presentation Visual Presentation Oral & Visual Presentation
Studies suggest that three days after a
presentation, people retain these
percentages of what they heard
OSHA

51. MacroVU
Visual Learning
The Power of Using Visuals
Presenters using visuals were perceived as more effective.
People said such things as…
More
Interesting
More
Concise
More
Professional More
Credible
Better
Prepared