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Value	
  crea?on	
  and	
  the	
  
                        challenge	
  of	
  building	
  a	
  PE	
  
                            returns	
  database	
  

Presented	
  by	
  Claudio	
  Vilar	
  Furtado	
  	
  
Execu7ve	
  Director,	
  GVcepe	
  
cepe@fgvsp.br,	
  February	
  2011.	
  
Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
     1	
  
Thanks	
  to	
  our	
  Sponsors	
  and	
  Partners	
  
                                                                                  2nd	
  Census	
  Project	
  Sponsor	
  




Founding	
  Members	
  &	
  Sponsor	
                                                                                       Strategic	
  Partners	
  




  Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                                                           2	
  
Agenda	
  


1.  The	
  Second	
  Census	
  Project	
  

2.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Key	
  Regions	
  	
  

3.  Nature	
  of	
  PE	
  Returns	
  

4.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Brazil	
  	
  	
  

5.  Closing	
  Remarks	
  



Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                  3	
  
The	
  Second	
  Census	
  Project	
  	
  
                        Gather	
  and	
  interpret	
  data	
  to	
  reflect	
  the	
  reality	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  
                                            industry	
  and	
  its	
  impact	
  on	
  the	
  economy.	
  


                                                                                   80%	
  
                                                                                     of	
  industry	
  	
  
                                                                                par7cipants	
  surveyed	
  



                                                    180	
                                                        144	
  
                                                    PE&VC	
  
                                                  Managing	
                                                         Surveyed	
  
                                                 Organiza?ons	
  


Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                       Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
     4	
  
Industry	
  Overview	
  as	
  of	
  December	
  2009	
  

                                                                                •  US$	
  36.1	
  bn	
  	
  Commi`ed	
  Capital	
  
                                                                                •  Main	
  LPs:	
  Pensions	
  22%,	
  Parent	
  Orgs.	
  
                                  Investors	
                                           18%,	
  Endowments	
  10%,	
  GP	
  Orgs	
  9%,	
  
                                                                                        Family	
  Offices	
  9%	
  	
  


                                                                                •  144	
  PE&VC	
  Firms	
  
               General	
  Partners	
                                            •  258	
  Investment	
  Vehicles	
  
                                                                                •  Est.	
  1,593	
  Professionals	
  &	
  Staff	
  


                                                                                • 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  502	
  porVolio	
  cos.,	
  Dec	
  09	
  
                                                                                • 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  2005-­‐2009	
  Period:	
  
        PorVolio	
  Companies	
                                                                            • 	
  414	
  new	
  investments	
  
                                                                                           • 	
  103	
  total	
  exits	
  
                                                                                           • 	
  39	
  IPOs	
  
                                                                                                                                	
  
Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                  Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
     5	
  
Expansion	
  of	
  the	
  Asset	
  Class	
  
                             Committed Capital allocated to Brazil (US$ Bn).                                 Committed Capital as % of GDP
40  	
                                                                                                                                                                             2.3%	
          2.5%    	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                   36	
  
35  	
                                                                                                                                  2%	
  

30  	
                                                                                                                                                                                                 	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                      2%
                                                                                                                                                                                  15%	
  p.a	
  
25  	
  
                                                                                                                                         27	
                                                      1.5%    	
  
20  	
                                                                                                    1.2%	
  
                                                                                 1%	
                                                                   2	
  x	
  
15  	
                                                                                                                                                                                                 	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                      1%


10  	
                                                                                                     13	
  
                                                                                                                           2	
  x	
                                                                0.5%    	
  
5 	
  
                                                                                 6	
  
0 	
                                                                                                                                                                                                   	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                      0%
    2000   	
          2001   	
            2002   	
            2003   	
      2004     	
        	
  
                                                                                                2005       2006     	
                  2007     	
                     	
  
                                                                                                                                                                     2008      2009	
  
 The	
  evolu2on	
  of	
  commi8ed	
  capital	
  is	
  impressive,	
  increasing	
  more	
  than	
  6	
  2mes	
  since	
  2004	
  
 and	
  2	
  fold	
  	
  as	
  percentage	
  of	
  GDP.	
  	
  	
  

Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
      6	
  
Commi^ed	
  Capital	
  
                                                        December	
  2009	
  (US$	
  MM)	
  
               Types	
                       Private	
  	
            Govt.	
                          Total	
                   %	
                Commi`ed	
  Capital	
  Dec.	
  2008                                      	
  28,984	
  


  Tradi?onal	
  *	
                          	
  27.168	
  	
            	
  935	
  	
                   	
  28.103	
  	
        78%	
  
                                                                                                                                           Fundraising	
  (Vehicles	
  in	
  US$)                                              	
  3.093	
  

  Corporate	
  Venture	
  **	
                      	
  350	
  	
                	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
             	
  350	
  	
      1%	
  
                                                                                                                                           Fundraising	
  (Vehicles	
  in	
  R$)                                               	
  2.979	
  

  Infrastructure	
  ***	
                       	
  3.955	
  	
                  	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
         	
  3.955	
  	
       11%	
  
                                                                                                                                           Reduc?ons	
  (Vehicles	
  in	
  US$)                                                -­‐1.531	
  

  Real	
  Estate	
                              	
  2.734	
  	
                  	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
         	
  2.734	
  	
        8%	
  
                                                                                                                                           Reduc?ons	
  (Vehicles	
  in	
  R$)                                                    -­‐732	
  

  Timber	
                                          	
  970	
  	
                	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
             	
  970	
  	
      3%	
  
                                                                                                                                           Exchange	
  Rate	
  Effect                                                           	
  3.318	
  

  Total	
                                    	
  35.177	
  	
            	
  935	
  	
                   	
  36.112	
  	
   100%	
         Commi`ed	
  Capital	
  Dec.	
  09                                                 	
  36.112	
  

*	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Investment	
  vehicles	
  with	
  focus	
  on	
  manufacturing,	
  trade,	
  services,	
  agriculture	
  and	
  tradi7onal	
  businesses.	
  
**	
  	
  	
  Subsidiaries	
  of	
  industrial	
  corpora7ons.	
  
***	
  	
  Investment	
  vehicles	
  dedicated	
  exclusively	
  to	
  oil	
  &	
  gas,	
  energy	
  and	
  self	
  defined	
  infrastructure	
  funds.	
  
NOTE:	
  Reduc7ons	
  refer	
  to	
  discon7nued	
  opera7ons,	
  termina7on	
  of	
  funds,	
  alloca7on	
  to	
  Brazil	
  changes	
  and	
  reduc7ons	
  of	
  commiGed	
  capital	
  
	
  by	
  investors.	
  

Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                                                                  Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
   7	
  
Diversified	
  Fund	
  Investor	
  Base	
  
            Commi`ed	
  Capital	
  by	
  Investment	
                                                                    Main	
  Types	
  of	
  Investors	
  
               Vehicle’s	
  Legal	
  Structure	
  




*	
  All	
  vehicle	
  structures	
  according	
  to	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  regula7on	
  CVM	
  391,	
  209,	
  402.	
  
NOTE:	
  Parent	
  Organiza7on	
  includes	
  Corporate	
  Ventures	
  and	
  Banks’	
  cap7ve	
  PE&VC	
  subsidiaries.	
  

  Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
     8	
  
Investment	
  and	
  Fundraising	
  (US$	
  bn.)	
  




    Es2mate	
  of	
  US$	
  17.8	
  bn.	
  	
  of	
  	
  ”Dry	
  Powder”	
  ready	
  to	
  be	
  invested	
  	
  as	
  of	
  December	
  2009	
  
Notes:	
  Fundraising	
  based	
  on	
  sample	
  of	
  258	
  investment	
  vehicles	
  by	
  144	
  PE&VC	
  Managing	
  Organisa7ons.	
  
Investment	
  based	
  on	
  Sample	
  of	
  394	
  and	
  95	
  Investments	
  made	
  by	
  144	
  and	
  45	
  PE&VC	
  Managing	
  Organisa7ons	
  in	
  2005-­‐2008	
  and	
  2009	
  respec7vely.	
  

 Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                                   Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
     9	
  
Investments	
  by	
  Sectors	
  of	
  Economic	
  Ac?vity	
  (US$	
  MM)	
  

                                                  2005-­‐2008	
  (Includes	
  New	
  and	
  Follow-­‐on	
  Investments)	
  
                           	
  
                                                                     Food	
  and	
  Beverages	
                                                                                   24%	
  
                                                                       Various	
  Industries*	
                                                    14%	
  
                                                  Civil	
  Construc?on/Real	
  Estate	
                                                         13%	
  
                                                                                               Retail	
                                      12%	
  
                                                                          Financial	
  Services	
                                         11%	
  
                                                                                 Energy	
  and	
  Oil	
              4%	
  
                                                                                        Educa?on	
                   4%	
  
                                                                                Communica?on	
                       4%	
  
                                                                                    Agribusiness	
               3%	
  
                                                                          IT	
  and	
  Electronics	
             3%	
  
                                      Pharmaceu?cal/Medical/Aesthe?cs	
                                          3%	
  
                                                              Entertainment/Tourism	
                         2%	
  
                                                                     Extrac?ve	
  Industries	
                2%	
  
                                                                   Infrastructure	
  -­‐	
  other	
         1%	
                   *	
  Various	
  Industries:	
  E.g.:	
  Chemicals,	
  Mechanic,	
  
Sample 2005-2008: 394 investments by 144 PE&VC Orgs.                                                                               Electric,	
  Metallurgic,	
  Packaging,	
  Tex7les.	
  
Sample 2009: 95 investments by 45 PE&VC Orgs.                                                                                      **	
  Various	
  Services:	
  E.g.:	
  Call	
  Center,	
  Consul7ng.	
  

Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                          Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
   10	
  
Investments	
  by	
  Sectors	
  of	
  Economic	
  Ac?vity	
  in	
  US$	
  MM	
  
                                                       2009	
  (Includes	
  New	
  and	
  Follow-­‐on	
  Investments)	
  
                          	
                                                                                                                                                                                         54%	
  
                                                            Energy	
  and	
  Oil	
                                                                                                  39%	
  
                                                                                                                    10%	
  
                                                      Financial	
  Services	
                                                 14%	
  
                                                                                                               9%	
  
                                          Entertainment/Tourism	
                                                        11%	
  
                                                                                                          6%	
  
                                                Extrac?ve	
  Industries	
                                       8%	
  
                                                                                                         5%	
  
                Transporta?on	
  and	
  Logis?cs	
  Services	
                                             7%	
  
                                                                                                    5%	
                                       Including	
  all	
  investments	
  
                                                                     Educa?on	
                           6%	
  
                                                                                                  3%	
  
                                                                Agribusiness	
                     4%	
  
                                                                                                                                               Excluding	
  one	
  US$	
  0.765bn	
  
                                              Infrastructure	
  -­‐	
  other	
                  2%	
                                           investment	
  in	
  energy	
  transmission	
  
                                                    Various	
  Services**	
                    2%	
  
                  Pharmaceu?cal/Medical/Aesthe?cs	
                                           1%	
  

                                                 Food	
  and	
  Beverages	
                    1%	
  

                                                                                Retail	
      1%	
  
                                                                                             1%	
                                       *	
  Various	
  Industries:	
  E.g.:	
  Chemicals,	
  Mechanic,	
  Electric,	
  
                                                   Various	
  Industries*	
                                                             Metallurgic,	
  Packaging,	
  Tex7les.	
  
                                                      IT	
  and	
  Electronics	
             1%	
                                       **	
  Various	
  Services:	
  E.g.:	
  Call	
  Center,	
  Consul7ng.	
  
                                                                                             1%	
                                       Sample 2005-2008: 394 investments by 144 PE/VC Orgs.
                                 Civil	
  Construc?on/Real	
  Estate	
                                                                  Sample 2009: 95 investments by 45 PE&VC Orgs.


Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                                    Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
   11	
  
New	
  Investment	
  Vehicles	
  Raised	
  
     50	
                                                                                                                                                                               47	
  

     45	
  

     40	
                                                                                                                                                                  37	
  

     35	
  
                                                                                                                                                             31	
  
     30	
  

     25	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                      19	
  
     20	
  

     15	
                                                                                                                                      13	
  
                                                                                               11	
       10	
  
                                                                                    9	
                              8	
  
     10	
          7	
                        7	
                         7	
                                                     7	
  

       5	
                                                  3	
  
                                1	
  
       0	
  
               95	
  and	
   1996	
       1997	
        1998	
        1999	
      2000	
     2001	
     2002	
     2003	
      2004	
        2005	
        2006	
       2007	
        2008	
        2009	
  
               before	
  

 30	
  to	
  50	
  new	
  investment	
  vehicles	
  raised	
  p.a.	
  since	
  2008,	
  vigorous	
  entry	
  and	
  expansion	
  in	
  the	
  
 industry.	
  
Note:	
  215	
  Investment	
  Vehicles	
  reported	
  by	
  120	
  PE/VC	
  Managing	
  Orgs.	
  

 Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                         Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
   12	
  
Exits	
  &	
  Dives?tures	
  

  70	
                                          Dives7tures	
  2005	
  -­‐	
  2009	
  (Including	
  Total	
  &	
  Par7al)	
  
                            	
  
                                                                                                                                                          61	
  
  60	
                                                                                                                                                       2	
  

                                                                                                           48	
                                             15	
  
  50	
  
                                                         42	
                                               4	
  
                                                                                                            3	
                                                                                                37	
  
  40	
                                                     3	
  
                                                           4	
  
            24	
                                                                                           12	
                                                                                                   4	
  
                                                           6	
                                                                                                                                                                   Write-­‐off	
  
  30	
                                                                                                                                                      27	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8	
  
             1	
  
                                                          12	
                                             10	
                                                                                                                  Buyback	
  
             5	
  
  20	
                                                                                                                                                                                                           11	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Trade	
  Sale	
  
              4	
  

  10	
       6	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Secondary	
  
                                                          17	
                                             19	
                                             16	
                                                 10	
            Sale	
  
              8	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                IPO	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4	
  
    0	
                                                                                                                                                      1	
  
     2005	
                                           2006	
                                           2007	
                                            2008	
                                           2009	
  
NOTE:	
  the	
  sample	
  contains	
  151	
  dives7tures	
  (107	
  total	
  &	
  44	
  par7al)	
  from	
  2005	
  to	
  2008	
  &	
  37	
  dives7tures	
  (30	
  total	
  &	
  7	
  par7al)	
  in	
  2009	
  with	
  informa7on	
  about	
  the	
  	
  
exit	
  mechanism.	
  


Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                                                 Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
  –	
  ABDI/FGV	
   13	
  
Agenda	
  


1.  The	
  Second	
  Census	
  Project	
  

2.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Key	
  Regions	
  	
  

3.  Nature	
  of	
  PE	
  Returns	
  

4.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Brazil	
  	
  	
  

5.  Closing	
  Remarks	
  



Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                  14	
  
VC	
  Gross	
  Returns:	
  Sand	
  Hill	
  Econometrics	
  	
  

                                                                                                                         VC Index: January 1992 - June 2010
                                                                                                                                                          (December 31, 1991 = 100)
 3,500
                                                                                  2010-Q2

 3,000


 2,500


 2,000


 1,500


 1,000


   500


      0
          Dec/91

                   Jun/92

                            Dec/92

                                     Jun/93

                                              Dec/93




                                                                                                             Jun/97

                                                                                                                      Dec/97

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun/06
 The	
  Sand	
  Hill	
  Index	
  had	
  an	
  annualized	
  return	
  of	
  16.9%	
  from	
  end	
  1988	
  to	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  2004.	
  
 More	
  recently	
  it	
  performed	
  at	
  an	
  annualized	
  return	
  of	
  8%	
  from	
  2005	
  to	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  2009.	
  

Source:	
  Sand	
  Hill	
  Econometrics	
  available	
  at:	
  h^p://www.sandhillecon.com/index-­‐download.php	
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          15	
  
PE	
  Net	
  IRRs	
  to	
  LPs	
  in	
  Key	
  Regions	
  by	
  C.A.	
  
                   Compara?ve	
  End-­‐to-­‐End	
  Returns	
  by	
  Region	
  as	
  of	
  09/30/2009.	
  

                                                                                                                 Absolute	
  
                          Region	
                                             5	
  year	
      10	
  year	
                    %	
  Change	
  
                                                                                                                  Change	
  

        La?n	
  America	
  &	
  Caribbean	
  PE	
                               19.06%	
          1.71%	
          17.35	
         1015%	
  



           Emerging	
  Market	
  VC	
  &	
  PE	
                                12.83%	
          6.63%	
            6.2	
          94%	
  



                         US	
  Buyout	
                                         10.44%	
          7.68%	
           2.76	
          36%	
  



            Western	
  Europe	
  VC	
  euro	
                                    -­‐2.01%	
      -­‐4.13%	
         2.12	
          51%	
  




Source:	
  Cambridge	
  Associates	
  September	
  2009	
  Quarterly	
  report.	
                                                              16	
  
PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Emerging	
  Markets	
  by	
  IESE	
  &	
  BCG	
  
                               IFC	
  experience	
  in	
  emerging	
  markets,	
  period	
  2000-­‐2006.	
  


                                                                                                              12	
  points	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                                               It	
  has	
  improved	
  
                                                                                                                                                               greatly	
  since	
  2000.	
  
                                                                                                                                            17.3%	
  




                                                                                     5.3%	
  
                      4.4%	
  


          Before	
  1990	
                                                 1990	
  -­‐1999	
                                         2000	
  -­‐	
  2006	
  
Notes:	
  IFC’s	
  fund-­‐level	
  data,	
  BCG	
  analysis.	
  Data	
  reflect	
  176	
  PE	
  funds	
  in	
  EM.	
  
The	
  return	
  is	
  net-­‐of-­‐fees	
  &	
  carried	
  interest,	
  the	
  cutoff	
  for	
  fund	
  data	
  was	
  2006	
  vintage	
  year.	
  

Source:	
  New	
  Markets,	
  New	
  Rules,	
  BCG	
  &	
  IESE	
  Report,	
  November	
  2010.	
  	
  	
                                                                               17	
  
Caselli´s	
  Prime	
  Work:	
  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Italy	
  	
  
                                 Carefin-­‐Bocconi	
  (Gross-­‐of-­‐fees)	
  
SAMPLE	
                                             	
  	
                               NATURE	
  OF	
  DEALS	
  
                                                                                                                                     	
  	
  
Investment	
  period*	
                                         1999	
  -­‐	
  2005	
  
                                                                                          Unleveraged	
  Deals	
                                70%	
  
Investments	
                                                          804	
                                                                                      Sample	
  by	
  Stage	
  
                                                                                          Leveraged	
  Deals	
                                  30%	
  
PE	
  Funds	
                                                           87	
  
Man.	
  Cos.	
                                                          58	
              Median	
  Sales	
                           EUR	
  126	
  M.	
                   Turnaro
                                                                                                                                                                            unds	
  
*exited	
  no	
  later	
  than	
  '07	
                                                   Median	
  EBITDA	
                               EUR	
  16	
  M.	
                 6%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                 Early	
  
                                                                                                                                                                 Stage	
  
FINDINGS	
                         	
  	
                                                                                                                         16%	
                  PE	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                       Growth	
  
Average	
  IRR	
                            33.17%	
                                                                                                                                    52%	
  
Largest	
  IRRs	
  	
                       Buyouts	
                                                                                                               Buyouts	
  
                                                                                                                                                                     26%	
  
Stock	
  Market	
  Index	
                  17.95%	
  
2	
  yr	
  Government	
  Bonds	
              8%	
  

Conclusions:	
                                                                                                          3.	
  Contractual	
  agreements	
  (exit	
  ratchets,	
  lockups)	
  
1.  IRR	
  is	
  mainly	
  driven	
  by	
  growth	
  in	
  sales,	
  ROA	
  and	
                                       have	
  a	
  posi2ve	
  effect	
  on	
  growth.	
  
     ROE.	
                                                                                                             4.	
  Longer	
  holding	
  period	
  investments	
  awarded	
  	
  
2.  IRR	
  affected	
  by	
  put	
  op2ons	
  and	
  tag	
  along	
  rights.	
                                           with	
  higher	
  IRRs.	
  
 Source:	
  Caselli,	
  S.,	
  2009,	
  Explaining	
  Returns	
  in	
  Private	
  Equity	
  Investments,	
  Carefin	
  Bocconi.	
                                                               18	
  
Agenda	
  


1.  The	
  Second	
  Census	
  Project	
  

2.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Key	
  Regions	
  	
  

3.  Nature	
  of	
  PE	
  Returns	
  

4.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Brazil	
  	
  	
  

5.  Closing	
  Remarks	
  



Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                  19	
  
Nature	
  of	
  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Mature	
  Markets	
  

Evidence	
  of	
  UK	
  PE	
  disaggregate	
  returns	
  


100%	
  
   90%	
  
   80%	
  
                                                                                                   56%	
                                                                           Half	
  of	
  returns	
  come	
  	
  
   70%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                   from	
  impact	
  of	
  
   60%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                   leverage.	
  
   50%	
                                                                                                                             100%	
  
   40%	
  
   30%	
                                                        22%	
  
   20%	
                                                                                           44%	
  
   10%	
                     22%	
                              22%	
  
      0%	
  
                     PE	
  management	
                 Underlying	
  stock	
            Impact	
  of	
  leverage	
                 Gross	
  IRR	
  
                                                         market	
  sector	
  



Source:	
  	
  How	
  profitable	
  has	
  Private	
  Equity	
  been	
  and	
  where	
  have	
  those	
  profits	
  come	
  from?	
  UK	
  study,	
  	
  Julian	
  Francs,	
  based	
  on	
  a	
  paper	
  and	
  presenta?on	
  
by	
  Viral	
  V.	
  Acharya,	
  and	
  Conor	
  Kehoe.	
  	
                                                                                                                                                                     20	
  
Nature	
  of	
  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Brazil	
  

         Drivers	
  of	
                            Mature	
  	
  
                                                                                           Brazil	
                	
  	
  Comments	
  on	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  model	
  
          returns	
                                 Markets	
  

          Leverage	
                                           	
                                  	
                	
  Much	
  less	
  reliant	
  on	
  debt.	
  
                                                                                                                   	
  	
  




            Growth	
                                           	
                                  	
              	
  	
  Key	
  component	
  for	
  crea7ng	
  IRR.	
  	
  
                                                                                                                        	
  


                                                                                                                           Many	
  more	
  opportuni7es	
  with	
  macro	
  
         Mul7ple	
                                             	
                                  	
              	
  	
  condi7ons	
  improving	
  and	
  opportuni7es	
  for	
  
        expansion	
                                                                                                        proprietary	
  deals.	
  
                                                                                                                          Greater	
  need	
  of	
  the	
  type	
  of	
  skills	
  and	
  
 Efficiency	
  gains	
                                           	
                                  	
              	
  	
  
                                                                                                                          business	
  knowledge	
  provided	
  by	
  PE	
  firms.	
  	
  

It	
  is	
  not	
  driven	
  by	
  leverage	
  and	
  aggressive	
  cost	
  cu`ng;	
  rather	
  IRR	
  is	
  driven	
  mostly	
  by	
  growth	
  	
  and	
  
efficiency	
  (focus	
  on	
  opera2onal	
  improvement).	
  

Source:	
  Is	
  Brazil	
  a	
  good	
  opportunity	
  for	
  PE	
  investments?,	
  Casabona	
  2010.	
  
Note:	
  	
  9	
  PE&VC	
  firms	
  based	
  in	
  London	
  and	
  Sao	
  Paulo	
  were	
  surveyed	
  .	
  	
                                                                              21	
  
Key	
  Company-­‐Industry	
  Features	
  for	
  PE	
  Investments	
  in	
  Brazil	
  	
  

                                                                                Brazilian	
  
                                                                                Economy	
  
                                                                                                                          ü     High	
  growth	
  rates	
  	
  	
  
                                                                                                                          ü     Fragmented	
  (Roll	
  up	
  strategy)	
  
                                                                                                                          ü     Non-­‐cyclical	
  sectors	
  
                                                                                 Industry	
  
                                                                                                                          ü     Health	
  compe77veness	
  (no	
  price	
  war)	
  
                                                                                                                          ü     Low	
  governmental	
  regula7on	
  	
  
  Investment	
                                                                                                            ü     Aligned	
  with	
  GPs	
  exper7se	
  
     Thesis	
  
                                                                           Company	
                                ü          Lack	
  of	
  financial	
  sophis7ca7on	
  from	
  management	
  
                                                                          Majority	
  stake	
                       ü          Succession	
  problems	
  
                                                                                                                    	
  	
  
                                                                           Company	
                                  ü        Good	
  management	
  team	
  
                                                                         Minority	
  stake	
                          ü        Domain	
  knowledge	
  of	
  the	
  sector	
  from	
  management	
  
   Company’s	
  common	
                                               ü        Stable	
  cash	
  flow	
                        ü       High	
  entry	
  barriers	
  
   features	
  
                                                                       ü        Low	
  fixed	
  costs	
                         ü       High	
  market	
  share	
  &	
  strong	
  brand	
  
                                                                       ü        Low	
  Capex	
                                 ü       Low	
  customer	
  concentra7on	
  	
  
                                                                       ü        High	
  profit	
  margins	
  	
                 ü       A`rac7ve	
  entry	
  valua7on	
  
                                                                       ü        Scaling	
  business	
  model	
                 ü       Clear	
  exit	
  strategy	
  	
  


Source:	
  Is	
  Brazil	
  a	
  good	
  opportunity	
  for	
  PE	
  investments?,	
  Casabona	
  2010.	
  
Note:	
  	
  9	
  PE&VC	
  firms	
  based	
  in	
  London	
  and	
  Sao	
  Paulo	
  were	
  surveyed	
  	
  	
                                                                                          22	
  
Agenda	
  


1.  The	
  Second	
  Census	
  Project	
  

2.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Key	
  Regions	
  	
  

3.  Nature	
  of	
  PE	
  Returns	
  

4.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Brazil	
  	
  	
  

5.  Closing	
  Remarks	
  



Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                  23	
  
Challenge	
  of	
  Crea?ng	
  a	
  PE	
  Returns	
  Database	
  

  The	
  challenge	
  
     •  Less	
  than	
  50	
  PE/VC	
  Managing	
  Organiza?ons	
  	
  have	
  more	
  than	
  10	
  years	
  inves?ng	
  in	
  
          the	
  country,	
  of	
  	
  which	
  60%	
  have	
  completed	
  the	
  en?re	
  investment-­‐to-­‐exit	
  cycle.	
  
     •  Fund-­‐level	
  returns	
  are	
  not	
  yet	
  available.	
  
     •  The	
  performance	
  repor?ng	
  requirement	
  has	
  been	
  newly	
  introduced	
  by	
  self-­‐
          regula?on	
  in	
  December	
  2010.	
  
  A	
  changing	
  scenario	
  
     •  Significant	
  and	
  stable	
  growth	
  in	
  the	
  industry.	
  
     •  GVcepe	
  has	
  created	
  a	
  comprehensive	
  database	
  and	
  data	
  collec?on	
  system	
  at	
  the	
  
        poruolio	
  company	
  and	
  fund	
  levels	
  to	
  supply	
  the	
  industry	
  with	
  the	
  properly	
  
        constructed	
  performance	
  data.	
  

Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                                        24	
  
Individual	
  Investments	
  Gross-­‐of-­‐Fee	
  Returns	
  in	
  each	
  Investment	
  
                                     Vehicle	
  	
  
                                                                                Sample	
  Ques?onnaire	
  




Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                  25	
  
NAV	
  for	
  each	
  Investment	
  Vehicle	
  




Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
            26	
  
Individual	
  Investments	
  MOI*	
  
                                                     Exited	
  2004/05	
  -­‐	
  2010	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                        MOI	
  /	
  COC	
  
Median	
  mul7ples	
  of	
  investment	
                                                              30%	
                                                                                                                                                                                                   100%	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              90%	
  
Quar7les	
   Range	
                                           Median	
  	
  
                                                                                                      25%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              80%	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              70%	
  
      Top	
                   10	
  >	
                           13.42	
                             20%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              60%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Rela?ve	
  Frequency	
  
       3rd	
                5	
  -­‐	
  9.9	
                         6.6	
                           15%	
                                                                                                Cumula?ve	
  Frequency	
                                                                           50%	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              40%	
  
      2nd	
                 3	
  -­‐	
  4.9	
                       3.45	
                            10%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30%	
  

   Lower	
                  1	
  -­‐	
  2.9	
                           2	
                             5%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20%	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10%	
  

                                                                                                        0%	
                                                                                                                                                                                                  0%	
  
                                                                                                                     1	
  	
   2	
  	
   3	
  	
   4	
  	
   5	
  	
   6	
  	
   7	
  	
   8	
  	
   9	
  	
   10	
  	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  Above	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     11	
  12	
  13	
  14	
  15	
  16	
  17	
  18	
  19	
  20	
  21	
  22	
  23	
  24	
  25	
  26	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                   Mul7ple	
  of	
  investment	
  
Note:	
  Median	
  holding	
  period	
  (4.2	
  years)	
  and	
  median	
  exit	
  value	
  (US$	
  86.8).	
  	
  

Sample:	
  25	
  Deals,	
  15	
  IPOs	
  	
  &	
  10	
  Trade	
  Sales.	
  7	
  cases	
  in	
  R$	
  and	
  18	
  cases	
  in	
  US$.	
                                                       Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
   27	
  
Individual	
  Investments	
  IRR	
  	
  
                                                         Exited	
  2004/05	
  -­‐	
  2010	
  
 Median	
  IRRs	
                                                                                     18%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                    IRR	
  	
                                                         100%	
  

                                                                                                      16%	
                                                                                                                           90%	
  
	
  	
  	
  Quar7les	
   	
  	
  	
  Range	
                    	
  	
  	
  Median	
  	
  
                                                                                                      14%	
                                                                                                                           80%	
  
           Top	
                          100	
  >	
                      162%	
                                                                                                                                                      70%	
  
                                                                                                      12%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                     Rela?ve	
  Frequency	
  
            3rd	
                       50	
  -­‐	
  99	
                   66%	
                                                                                                                                                     60%	
  
                                                                                                      10%	
                                                                          Cumula?ve	
  Frequency	
  

           2nd	
                      25	
  -­‐	
  49.9	
                   37%	
                                                                                                                                                     50%	
  
                                                                                                        8%	
  
        Lower	
                         0	
  -­‐	
  24.9	
                  18%	
                                                                                                                                                     40%	
  
                                                                                                        6%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30%	
  
                                                                                                        4%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20%	
  
                                                                                                        2%	
                                                                                                                          10%	
  
                                                                                                        0%	
                                                                                                                          0%	
  
                                                                                                                   0%	
          45%	
      90%	
     135%	
      180%	
       225%	
       270%	
       315%	
        360%	
  

Note:	
  Median	
  holding	
  period	
  (4.2	
  years)	
  and	
  median	
  exit	
  value	
  (US$	
  86.8).	
  	
                                                      IRR	
  Returns	
  

Sample:	
  25	
  Deals,	
  15	
  IPOs	
  	
  &	
  10	
  Trade	
  Sales.	
  7	
  cases	
  in	
  R$	
  and	
  18	
  cases	
  in	
  US$.	
                          Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
   28	
  
Excess	
  returns	
  over	
  CDI*	
  
                                                              Exited	
  2004/05	
  -­‐	
  2010	
  
                                                                                                                                             Annual	
  returns	
  in	
  excess	
  of	
  CDI*	
  
 Median	
  excess	
  returns	
  over	
  CDI	
                                                           30%	
                                                                                                                          100%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       95%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       90%	
  
	
  	
  	
  Quar7les	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Range	
                  	
  	
  	
  Median	
              25%	
                                                                                                                          85%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       80%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       75%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       70%	
  
                                                                                                        20%	
                                                                                                                          65%	
  
            Top	
                 170	
  >	
                                  271%	
  
                                                                                                                                                           Rela?ve	
  Frequency	
                Cumula?ve	
  Frequency	
              60%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       55%	
  
            3rd	
                 130	
  -­‐	
  169.9	
                       141%	
                    15%	
                                                                                                                          50%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       45%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       40%	
  
            2nd	
                 105	
  -­‐	
  129.9	
                       110%	
                    10%	
                                                                                                                          35%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       30%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       25%	
  
        Lower	
                   80	
  -­‐	
  104.9	
                        100%	
                                                                                                                                                   20%	
  
                                                                                                          5%	
                                                                                                                         15%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10%	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5%	
  
                                                                                                          0%	
                                                                                                                         0%	
  
                                                                                                                    80%	
   100%	
  120%	
  140%	
  160%	
  180%	
  200%	
  220%	
  240%	
  260%	
  280%	
  300%	
  320%	
  


Note:	
  Median	
  holding	
  period	
  (4.2	
  years)	
  and	
  median	
  exit	
  value	
  (US$	
  86.8).	
  	
                                                                              *CDI,	
  Interbank	
  Loan-­‐Rate	
  

 Sample:	
  25	
  Deals,	
  15	
  IPOs	
  	
  &	
  10	
  Trade	
  Sales.	
  7	
  cases	
  in	
  R$	
  and	
  18	
  cases	
  in	
  US$.	
                        Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
   29	
  
Required	
  Returns	
  by	
  GPs	
  for	
  Single	
  Investments	
  
     Expected	
  median	
  nominal	
  return	
  (R$	
  %	
  p.a.)	
  	
  
               42.5	
  

                                 35	
  
                                              30	
  
                                                        26.25	
   25	
  
                                                                                 22.5	
   22.5	
  
                                                                                                         19.75	
   19.5	
           Macroeconomic	
  data	
                                      (%)	
  
                                                                                                                                    CDI	
                                                     11.14	
  
                                                                                                                                    Gov	
  Bonds	
  (LTN)*	
                                   12.5	
  
                                                                                                                                    Infla7on	
  (IPCA)**	
                                       5.9	
  
                                                                                                                                    Expected	
  Infla7on	
                                       4.5	
  
                                                                                                                                    *LTN	
  01/01/12	
  
                                                                                                                                    **Last	
  12	
  months	
  
                                                                                                                                   Sources:	
  	
  h^p://www.portalbrasil.net/ipca.htm	
  
                                                                                                                                          	
  	
  	
  	
  h^p://www.ce?p.com.br/	
  
                                                                                                                                          	
  	
  	
  	
  h^p://www.tesouro.fazenda.gov.br	
  
                                                                                                                                          	
  	
  	
  	
  Focus	
  Forecast	
  2011	
  


This	
  sample	
  consists	
  of	
  77	
  answers	
  by	
  	
  71	
  PE&VC	
  managing	
  organiza?ons.	
  

 Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                                  Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
     30	
  
Agenda	
  


1.  The	
  Second	
  Census	
  Project	
  

2.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Key	
  Regions	
  	
  

3.  Nature	
  of	
  PE	
  Returns	
  

4.  PE	
  Returns	
  in	
  Brazil	
  	
  	
  

5.  Closing	
  Remarks	
  



Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                  31	
  
Closing	
  remarks	
  
	
  

Ø The	
  official	
  results	
  of	
  the	
  Second	
  Census	
  will	
  be	
  released	
  on	
  March	
  1st.	
  	
  

Ø GVcepe	
  is	
  concluding	
  a	
  comprehensive	
  industry	
  research	
  with	
  ABDI’s	
  

government	
  support	
  and	
  ABVCAP’s	
  ins?tu?onal	
  backing.	
  

                                                                                  What	
  is	
  next?	
  
 Ø  To	
  provide	
  a	
  complete	
  performance	
  database,	
  GVcepe	
  is	
  working	
  on	
  
           performance	
  data	
  with	
  a	
  pre-­‐selected	
  “Best	
  Prac?ces	
  Group”.	
  
 Ø  	
  Get	
  commitment	
  from	
  PE&VC	
  firms	
  to	
  fill	
  out	
  the	
  performance	
  data	
  
           ques?onnaires.	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  

  Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                    32	
  
Best	
  Prac?ces	
  Reference	
  Group	
  
     PE/VC Managing Organizations
1    Advent International
2
3
     AG Angra Investimentos
     Angra Partners Gestão de Recursos e Assessoria Financeira
                                                                                Best	
  Prac7ces	
  Group	
  	
  
4    Antera Gestão de Recursos S/A
5    Axxon Group
6    BNDESPAR
7    Brookfield
8    BTG Gestora de Recursos Ltda                                                                               12%	
  
9    CRP Companhia de Participações                                                    21%	
                                                        Angels	
  
10   Darby Overseas Investments, Ltd.                                                                                           4%	
  
11   Darby-Stratus                                                                                                                                  Infrastructure	
  
12   DGF Investimentos
13   FIR Capital Partners Gestão de Investimentos S.A.                                                                                              Private	
  Equity	
  
14   Floripa Angels
15   Gávea Angels                                                                                                                                   Seed	
  /	
  Venture	
  
16   Gávea Investimentos
17   General Atlantic
18   GP Investments                                                                                  63%	
  
19   InfraBrasil
20   Modal Administradora de Recursos S.A.
21   NSG Capital Administração de Recursos S.A.
22   Pátria Investimentos
23   Prosperitas Investimentos S.A.
24   Rio Bravo Investimentos S.A.                                               Together	
  they	
  represent	
  50%	
  of	
  the	
  
25   São Paulo Anjos
26   Tarpon Investments                                                         Industry’s	
  Commi8ed	
  Capital.	
  	
  
27   TMG Capital

Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                 Source:2nd	
  Census	
  of	
  the	
  Brazilian	
  PE&VC	
  Industry	
   33	
  
Thank	
  you	
  
                                              for	
  your	
  a^en?on	
  
                                                                          Presenta7on	
  co-­‐authors	
  

Prof.	
  Cláudio	
  V.	
  Furtado	
                                                   Alexander	
  Appel	
                  Victor	
  C.	
  Casabona	
  Filho	
  
Phone:	
  +55	
  (11)	
  3285-­‐4222	
                                                     Researcher	
                       Sloan	
  Fellowship	
  2010	
  
 claudio.furtado@fgv.br	
                                                                   GVcepe	
                         London	
  Business	
  School	
  
                                                                                Phone:	
  +55	
  (21)	
  8369-­‐69669	
   Phone:	
  +44	
  (0)	
  7872	
  490666	
  
                                                                                  alexander.appel@fgv.br	
                vcasabona.sln2010@london.edu	
  




Copyright	
  @2011.	
  	
  Fundação	
  Getúlio	
  Vargas	
  -­‐	
  GVcepe	
                                                                                   34	
  

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Super Returns Latin America 2011

  • 1. Value  crea?on  and  the   challenge  of  building  a  PE   returns  database   Presented  by  Claudio  Vilar  Furtado     Execu7ve  Director,  GVcepe   cepe@fgvsp.br,  February  2011.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   1  
  • 2. Thanks  to  our  Sponsors  and  Partners   2nd  Census  Project  Sponsor   Founding  Members  &  Sponsor   Strategic  Partners   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   2  
  • 3. Agenda   1.  The  Second  Census  Project   2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions     3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns   4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil       5.  Closing  Remarks   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   3  
  • 4. The  Second  Census  Project     Gather  and  interpret  data  to  reflect  the  reality  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC   industry  and  its  impact  on  the  economy.   80%   of  industry     par7cipants  surveyed   180   144   PE&VC   Managing   Surveyed   Organiza?ons   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   4  
  • 5. Industry  Overview  as  of  December  2009   •  US$  36.1  bn    Commi`ed  Capital   •  Main  LPs:  Pensions  22%,  Parent  Orgs.   Investors   18%,  Endowments  10%,  GP  Orgs  9%,   Family  Offices  9%     •  144  PE&VC  Firms   General  Partners   •  258  Investment  Vehicles   •  Est.  1,593  Professionals  &  Staff   •           502  porVolio  cos.,  Dec  09   •             2005-­‐2009  Period:   PorVolio  Companies   •   414  new  investments   •   103  total  exits   •   39  IPOs     Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   5  
  • 6. Expansion  of  the  Asset  Class   Committed Capital allocated to Brazil (US$ Bn). Committed Capital as % of GDP 40   2.3%   2.5%   36   35   2%   30     2% 15%  p.a   25   27   1.5%   20   1.2%   1%   2  x   15     1% 10   13   2  x   0.5%   5   6   0     0% 2000   2001   2002   2003   2004     2005 2006   2007     2008 2009   The  evolu2on  of  commi8ed  capital  is  impressive,  increasing  more  than  6  2mes  since  2004   and  2  fold    as  percentage  of  GDP.       Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   6  
  • 7. Commi^ed  Capital   December  2009  (US$  MM)   Types   Private     Govt.   Total   %   Commi`ed  Capital  Dec.  2008  28,984   Tradi?onal  *    27.168      935      28.103     78%   Fundraising  (Vehicles  in  US$)  3.093   Corporate  Venture  **    350      -­‐        350     1%   Fundraising  (Vehicles  in  R$)  2.979   Infrastructure  ***    3.955      -­‐        3.955     11%   Reduc?ons  (Vehicles  in  US$) -­‐1.531   Real  Estate    2.734      -­‐        2.734     8%   Reduc?ons  (Vehicles  in  R$) -­‐732   Timber    970      -­‐        970     3%   Exchange  Rate  Effect  3.318   Total    35.177      935      36.112     100%   Commi`ed  Capital  Dec.  09  36.112   *          Investment  vehicles  with  focus  on  manufacturing,  trade,  services,  agriculture  and  tradi7onal  businesses.   **      Subsidiaries  of  industrial  corpora7ons.   ***    Investment  vehicles  dedicated  exclusively  to  oil  &  gas,  energy  and  self  defined  infrastructure  funds.   NOTE:  Reduc7ons  refer  to  discon7nued  opera7ons,  termina7on  of  funds,  alloca7on  to  Brazil  changes  and  reduc7ons  of  commiGed  capital    by  investors.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   7  
  • 8. Diversified  Fund  Investor  Base   Commi`ed  Capital  by  Investment   Main  Types  of  Investors   Vehicle’s  Legal  Structure   *  All  vehicle  structures  according  to  Brazilian  PE&VC  regula7on  CVM  391,  209,  402.   NOTE:  Parent  Organiza7on  includes  Corporate  Ventures  and  Banks’  cap7ve  PE&VC  subsidiaries.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   8  
  • 9. Investment  and  Fundraising  (US$  bn.)   Es2mate  of  US$  17.8  bn.    of    ”Dry  Powder”  ready  to  be  invested    as  of  December  2009   Notes:  Fundraising  based  on  sample  of  258  investment  vehicles  by  144  PE&VC  Managing  Organisa7ons.   Investment  based  on  Sample  of  394  and  95  Investments  made  by  144  and  45  PE&VC  Managing  Organisa7ons  in  2005-­‐2008  and  2009  respec7vely.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   9  
  • 10. Investments  by  Sectors  of  Economic  Ac?vity  (US$  MM)   2005-­‐2008  (Includes  New  and  Follow-­‐on  Investments)     Food  and  Beverages   24%   Various  Industries*   14%   Civil  Construc?on/Real  Estate   13%   Retail   12%   Financial  Services   11%   Energy  and  Oil   4%   Educa?on   4%   Communica?on   4%   Agribusiness   3%   IT  and  Electronics   3%   Pharmaceu?cal/Medical/Aesthe?cs   3%   Entertainment/Tourism   2%   Extrac?ve  Industries   2%   Infrastructure  -­‐  other   1%   *  Various  Industries:  E.g.:  Chemicals,  Mechanic,   Sample 2005-2008: 394 investments by 144 PE&VC Orgs. Electric,  Metallurgic,  Packaging,  Tex7les.   Sample 2009: 95 investments by 45 PE&VC Orgs. **  Various  Services:  E.g.:  Call  Center,  Consul7ng.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   10  
  • 11. Investments  by  Sectors  of  Economic  Ac?vity  in  US$  MM   2009  (Includes  New  and  Follow-­‐on  Investments)     54%   Energy  and  Oil   39%   10%   Financial  Services   14%   9%   Entertainment/Tourism   11%   6%   Extrac?ve  Industries   8%   5%   Transporta?on  and  Logis?cs  Services   7%   5%   Including  all  investments   Educa?on   6%   3%   Agribusiness   4%   Excluding  one  US$  0.765bn   Infrastructure  -­‐  other   2%   investment  in  energy  transmission   Various  Services**   2%   Pharmaceu?cal/Medical/Aesthe?cs   1%   Food  and  Beverages   1%   Retail   1%   1%   *  Various  Industries:  E.g.:  Chemicals,  Mechanic,  Electric,   Various  Industries*   Metallurgic,  Packaging,  Tex7les.   IT  and  Electronics   1%   **  Various  Services:  E.g.:  Call  Center,  Consul7ng.   1%   Sample 2005-2008: 394 investments by 144 PE/VC Orgs. Civil  Construc?on/Real  Estate   Sample 2009: 95 investments by 45 PE&VC Orgs. Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   11  
  • 12. New  Investment  Vehicles  Raised   50   47   45   40   37   35   31   30   25   19   20   15   13   11   10   9   8   10   7   7   7   7   5   3   1   0   95  and   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   before   30  to  50  new  investment  vehicles  raised  p.a.  since  2008,  vigorous  entry  and  expansion  in  the   industry.   Note:  215  Investment  Vehicles  reported  by  120  PE/VC  Managing  Orgs.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   12  
  • 13. Exits  &  Dives?tures   70   Dives7tures  2005  -­‐  2009  (Including  Total  &  Par7al)     61   60   2   48   15   50   42   4   3   37   40   3   4   24   12   4   6   Write-­‐off   30   27   8   1   12   10   Buyback   5   20   11   Trade  Sale   4   10   6   Secondary   17   19   16   10   Sale   8   IPO   4   0   1   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   NOTE:  the  sample  contains  151  dives7tures  (107  total  &  44  par7al)  from  2005  to  2008  &  37  dives7tures  (30  total  &  7  par7al)  in  2009  with  informa7on  about  the     exit  mechanism.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry  –  ABDI/FGV   13  
  • 14. Agenda   1.  The  Second  Census  Project   2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions     3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns   4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil       5.  Closing  Remarks   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   14  
  • 15. VC  Gross  Returns:  Sand  Hill  Econometrics     VC Index: January 1992 - June 2010 (December 31, 1991 = 100) 3,500 2010-Q2 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Dec/91 Jun/92 Dec/92 Jun/93 Dec/93 Jun/97 Dec/97 Jun/98 Dec/98 Jun/99 Dec/99 Jun/00 Dec/00 Jun/01 Dec/01 Jun/02 Dec/02 Jun/03 Dec/03 Jun/07 Dec/07 Jun/08 Dec/08 Jun/09 Dec/09 Jun/10 Dec/94 Dec/95 Dec/96 Dec/04 Dec/05 Dec/06 Jun/94 Jun/95 Jun/96 Jun/04 Jun/05 Jun/06 The  Sand  Hill  Index  had  an  annualized  return  of  16.9%  from  end  1988  to  the  end  of  2004.   More  recently  it  performed  at  an  annualized  return  of  8%  from  2005  to  the  end  of  2009.   Source:  Sand  Hill  Econometrics  available  at:  h^p://www.sandhillecon.com/index-­‐download.php   15  
  • 16. PE  Net  IRRs  to  LPs  in  Key  Regions  by  C.A.   Compara?ve  End-­‐to-­‐End  Returns  by  Region  as  of  09/30/2009.   Absolute   Region   5  year   10  year   %  Change   Change   La?n  America  &  Caribbean  PE   19.06%   1.71%   17.35   1015%   Emerging  Market  VC  &  PE   12.83%   6.63%   6.2   94%   US  Buyout   10.44%   7.68%   2.76   36%   Western  Europe  VC  euro   -­‐2.01%   -­‐4.13%   2.12   51%   Source:  Cambridge  Associates  September  2009  Quarterly  report.   16  
  • 17. PE  Returns  in  Emerging  Markets  by  IESE  &  BCG   IFC  experience  in  emerging  markets,  period  2000-­‐2006.   12  points     It  has  improved   greatly  since  2000.   17.3%   5.3%   4.4%   Before  1990   1990  -­‐1999   2000  -­‐  2006   Notes:  IFC’s  fund-­‐level  data,  BCG  analysis.  Data  reflect  176  PE  funds  in  EM.   The  return  is  net-­‐of-­‐fees  &  carried  interest,  the  cutoff  for  fund  data  was  2006  vintage  year.   Source:  New  Markets,  New  Rules,  BCG  &  IESE  Report,  November  2010.       17  
  • 18. Caselli´s  Prime  Work:  PE  Returns  in  Italy     Carefin-­‐Bocconi  (Gross-­‐of-­‐fees)   SAMPLE       NATURE  OF  DEALS       Investment  period*   1999  -­‐  2005   Unleveraged  Deals   70%   Investments   804   Sample  by  Stage   Leveraged  Deals   30%   PE  Funds   87   Man.  Cos.   58   Median  Sales   EUR  126  M.   Turnaro unds   *exited  no  later  than  '07   Median  EBITDA   EUR  16  M.   6%   Early   Stage   FINDINGS       16%   PE   Growth   Average  IRR   33.17%   52%   Largest  IRRs     Buyouts   Buyouts   26%   Stock  Market  Index   17.95%   2  yr  Government  Bonds   8%   Conclusions:   3.  Contractual  agreements  (exit  ratchets,  lockups)   1.  IRR  is  mainly  driven  by  growth  in  sales,  ROA  and   have  a  posi2ve  effect  on  growth.   ROE.   4.  Longer  holding  period  investments  awarded     2.  IRR  affected  by  put  op2ons  and  tag  along  rights.   with  higher  IRRs.   Source:  Caselli,  S.,  2009,  Explaining  Returns  in  Private  Equity  Investments,  Carefin  Bocconi.   18  
  • 19. Agenda   1.  The  Second  Census  Project   2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions     3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns   4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil       5.  Closing  Remarks   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   19  
  • 20. Nature  of  PE  Returns  in  Mature  Markets   Evidence  of  UK  PE  disaggregate  returns   100%   90%   80%   56%   Half  of  returns  come     70%   from  impact  of   60%   leverage.   50%   100%   40%   30%   22%   20%   44%   10%   22%   22%   0%   PE  management   Underlying  stock   Impact  of  leverage   Gross  IRR   market  sector   Source:    How  profitable  has  Private  Equity  been  and  where  have  those  profits  come  from?  UK  study,    Julian  Francs,  based  on  a  paper  and  presenta?on   by  Viral  V.  Acharya,  and  Conor  Kehoe.     20  
  • 21. Nature  of  PE  Returns  in  Brazil   Drivers  of   Mature     Brazil      Comments  on  the  Brazilian  model   returns   Markets   Leverage        Much  less  reliant  on  debt.       Growth          Key  component  for  crea7ng  IRR.       Many  more  opportuni7es  with  macro   Mul7ple          condi7ons  improving  and  opportuni7es  for   expansion   proprietary  deals.   Greater  need  of  the  type  of  skills  and   Efficiency  gains           business  knowledge  provided  by  PE  firms.     It  is  not  driven  by  leverage  and  aggressive  cost  cu`ng;  rather  IRR  is  driven  mostly  by  growth    and   efficiency  (focus  on  opera2onal  improvement).   Source:  Is  Brazil  a  good  opportunity  for  PE  investments?,  Casabona  2010.   Note:    9  PE&VC  firms  based  in  London  and  Sao  Paulo  were  surveyed  .     21  
  • 22. Key  Company-­‐Industry  Features  for  PE  Investments  in  Brazil     Brazilian   Economy   ü  High  growth  rates       ü  Fragmented  (Roll  up  strategy)   ü  Non-­‐cyclical  sectors   Industry   ü  Health  compe77veness  (no  price  war)   ü  Low  governmental  regula7on     Investment   ü  Aligned  with  GPs  exper7se   Thesis   Company   ü  Lack  of  financial  sophis7ca7on  from  management   Majority  stake   ü  Succession  problems       Company   ü  Good  management  team   Minority  stake   ü  Domain  knowledge  of  the  sector  from  management   Company’s  common   ü  Stable  cash  flow   ü  High  entry  barriers   features   ü  Low  fixed  costs   ü  High  market  share  &  strong  brand   ü  Low  Capex   ü  Low  customer  concentra7on     ü  High  profit  margins     ü  A`rac7ve  entry  valua7on   ü  Scaling  business  model   ü  Clear  exit  strategy     Source:  Is  Brazil  a  good  opportunity  for  PE  investments?,  Casabona  2010.   Note:    9  PE&VC  firms  based  in  London  and  Sao  Paulo  were  surveyed       22  
  • 23. Agenda   1.  The  Second  Census  Project   2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions     3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns   4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil       5.  Closing  Remarks   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   23  
  • 24. Challenge  of  Crea?ng  a  PE  Returns  Database   The  challenge   •  Less  than  50  PE/VC  Managing  Organiza?ons    have  more  than  10  years  inves?ng  in   the  country,  of    which  60%  have  completed  the  en?re  investment-­‐to-­‐exit  cycle.   •  Fund-­‐level  returns  are  not  yet  available.   •  The  performance  repor?ng  requirement  has  been  newly  introduced  by  self-­‐ regula?on  in  December  2010.   A  changing  scenario   •  Significant  and  stable  growth  in  the  industry.   •  GVcepe  has  created  a  comprehensive  database  and  data  collec?on  system  at  the   poruolio  company  and  fund  levels  to  supply  the  industry  with  the  properly   constructed  performance  data.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   24  
  • 25. Individual  Investments  Gross-­‐of-­‐Fee  Returns  in  each  Investment   Vehicle     Sample  Ques?onnaire   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   25  
  • 26. NAV  for  each  Investment  Vehicle   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   26  
  • 27. Individual  Investments  MOI*   Exited  2004/05  -­‐  2010   MOI  /  COC   Median  mul7ples  of  investment   30%   100%   90%   Quar7les   Range   Median     25%   80%   70%   Top   10  >   13.42   20%   60%   Rela?ve  Frequency   3rd   5  -­‐  9.9   6.6   15%   Cumula?ve  Frequency   50%   40%   2nd   3  -­‐  4.9   3.45   10%   30%   Lower   1  -­‐  2.9   2   5%   20%   10%   0%   0%   1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9     10                                    Above   11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26   Mul7ple  of  investment   Note:  Median  holding  period  (4.2  years)  and  median  exit  value  (US$  86.8).     Sample:  25  Deals,  15  IPOs    &  10  Trade  Sales.  7  cases  in  R$  and  18  cases  in  US$.   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   27  
  • 28. Individual  Investments  IRR     Exited  2004/05  -­‐  2010   Median  IRRs   18%   IRR     100%   16%   90%        Quar7les        Range        Median     14%   80%   Top   100  >   162%   70%   12%   Rela?ve  Frequency   3rd   50  -­‐  99   66%   60%   10%   Cumula?ve  Frequency   2nd   25  -­‐  49.9   37%   50%   8%   Lower   0  -­‐  24.9   18%   40%   6%   30%   4%   20%   2%   10%   0%   0%   0%   45%   90%   135%   180%   225%   270%   315%   360%   Note:  Median  holding  period  (4.2  years)  and  median  exit  value  (US$  86.8).     IRR  Returns   Sample:  25  Deals,  15  IPOs    &  10  Trade  Sales.  7  cases  in  R$  and  18  cases  in  US$.   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   28  
  • 29. Excess  returns  over  CDI*   Exited  2004/05  -­‐  2010   Annual  returns  in  excess  of  CDI*   Median  excess  returns  over  CDI   30%   100%   95%   90%        Quar7les            Range        Median   25%   85%   80%   75%   70%   20%   65%   Top   170  >   271%   Rela?ve  Frequency   Cumula?ve  Frequency   60%   55%   3rd   130  -­‐  169.9   141%   15%   50%   45%   40%   2nd   105  -­‐  129.9   110%   10%   35%   30%   25%   Lower   80  -­‐  104.9   100%   20%   5%   15%   10%   5%   0%   0%   80%   100%  120%  140%  160%  180%  200%  220%  240%  260%  280%  300%  320%   Note:  Median  holding  period  (4.2  years)  and  median  exit  value  (US$  86.8).     *CDI,  Interbank  Loan-­‐Rate   Sample:  25  Deals,  15  IPOs    &  10  Trade  Sales.  7  cases  in  R$  and  18  cases  in  US$.   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   29  
  • 30. Required  Returns  by  GPs  for  Single  Investments   Expected  median  nominal  return  (R$  %  p.a.)     42.5   35   30   26.25   25   22.5   22.5   19.75   19.5   Macroeconomic  data   (%)   CDI   11.14   Gov  Bonds  (LTN)*   12.5   Infla7on  (IPCA)**   5.9   Expected  Infla7on   4.5   *LTN  01/01/12   **Last  12  months   Sources:    h^p://www.portalbrasil.net/ipca.htm          h^p://www.ce?p.com.br/          h^p://www.tesouro.fazenda.gov.br          Focus  Forecast  2011   This  sample  consists  of  77  answers  by    71  PE&VC  managing  organiza?ons.   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   30  
  • 31. Agenda   1.  The  Second  Census  Project   2.  PE  Returns  in  Key  Regions     3.  Nature  of  PE  Returns   4.  PE  Returns  in  Brazil       5.  Closing  Remarks   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   31  
  • 32. Closing  remarks     Ø The  official  results  of  the  Second  Census  will  be  released  on  March  1st.     Ø GVcepe  is  concluding  a  comprehensive  industry  research  with  ABDI’s   government  support  and  ABVCAP’s  ins?tu?onal  backing.   What  is  next?   Ø  To  provide  a  complete  performance  database,  GVcepe  is  working  on   performance  data  with  a  pre-­‐selected  “Best  Prac?ces  Group”.   Ø   Get  commitment  from  PE&VC  firms  to  fill  out  the  performance  data   ques?onnaires.           Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   32  
  • 33. Best  Prac?ces  Reference  Group   PE/VC Managing Organizations 1 Advent International 2 3 AG Angra Investimentos Angra Partners Gestão de Recursos e Assessoria Financeira Best  Prac7ces  Group     4 Antera Gestão de Recursos S/A 5 Axxon Group 6 BNDESPAR 7 Brookfield 8 BTG Gestora de Recursos Ltda 12%   9 CRP Companhia de Participações 21%   Angels   10 Darby Overseas Investments, Ltd. 4%   11 Darby-Stratus Infrastructure   12 DGF Investimentos 13 FIR Capital Partners Gestão de Investimentos S.A. Private  Equity   14 Floripa Angels 15 Gávea Angels Seed  /  Venture   16 Gávea Investimentos 17 General Atlantic 18 GP Investments 63%   19 InfraBrasil 20 Modal Administradora de Recursos S.A. 21 NSG Capital Administração de Recursos S.A. 22 Pátria Investimentos 23 Prosperitas Investimentos S.A. 24 Rio Bravo Investimentos S.A. Together  they  represent  50%  of  the   25 São Paulo Anjos 26 Tarpon Investments Industry’s  Commi8ed  Capital.     27 TMG Capital Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   Source:2nd  Census  of  the  Brazilian  PE&VC  Industry   33  
  • 34. Thank  you   for  your  a^en?on   Presenta7on  co-­‐authors   Prof.  Cláudio  V.  Furtado   Alexander  Appel   Victor  C.  Casabona  Filho   Phone:  +55  (11)  3285-­‐4222   Researcher   Sloan  Fellowship  2010   claudio.furtado@fgv.br   GVcepe   London  Business  School   Phone:  +55  (21)  8369-­‐69669   Phone:  +44  (0)  7872  490666   alexander.appel@fgv.br   vcasabona.sln2010@london.edu   Copyright  @2011.    Fundação  Getúlio  Vargas  -­‐  GVcepe   34