Modelling
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A presentation at the launch of CRP1.1 - Dryland Systems on Modeling.
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Modelling
- 1. CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Systems Systems Approach for Integration of Planning and Product
- 2. Dimensions of Dryland Systems Matrix • Five Target Regions • Four Themes • Integrated Technology and Policy Interventions
- 3. Drylands - A System of Systems • Individual cells within the Dryland Systems matrix employ a systems approach - which can be modeled individually • Modeling the overall Dryland Systems matrix in a common integrated modeling environment • Models various dimensions at varying levels of scale • Contributes to a consistent planning framework • Helps define potential synergies and interactions • Contributes to a consistent method for program evaluation and defining outcomes meaningful to investors
- 4. Modeling the Integrated Systems • Dryland Systems forms a complex and challenging modeling matrix • Integrated Systems approach defines the broad dimensions of the system components and develops explicit relationships between them • The approach uses an integrated modeling environment for: – Planning – Discovery – Management metrics – Outcome estimates
- 5. Integrated Modeling Environment • Dimensions of the system – Production – Environmental – Economic – Social • Linkages and interaction between and across the elements of the system is challenging • Many modeling systems exist and could be relevant – all are paced by limited quality input data • The goals, construct, and planned outcomes of the Drylands System could be well served by an integrated modeling approach
- 7. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Project Evolution • Pilot Study – Demonstration of application of the GDSS (IDSS) for technology innovations – subsistence farmers – January 2013 • Presentation at BMGF Headquarters – broad interest in applications • Additional funding and short term engagement with stakeholders in Ethiopia to validate outputs, sustainability and explore applications • Completion of recent mission to Ethiopia to help validate the utility and sustainability of the methods in developing countries
- 8. Stakeholders Engagement in Ethiopia • Ministry of Agriculture • Agricultural Transformation Agency • CGIAR Centers – IWMI – ILRI – ICARDA – CIMMYT – IFPRI
- 9. IDSS Applications •Provide common modeling environment for ex ante analyses to inform investment decisions, evaluate progress during project implementation, and forecast integrated impact from interventions. •Identify optimum outcomes for situations which require trade-offs among production, environmental and economic benefits and costs. •Hydrologists can project how water harvesting for irrigation will affect stream flows and water quality indicators (e.g., suspended solids, ortho-phosphate, biological oxygen demand). •Soil scientists can project how alternative cropping systems affect indicators of soil fertility (e.g., topsoil pH, organic matter contents, extractable phosphorus). •Agronomists can anticipate additional nitrogen fertilizer required to take advantage of irrigation or the increased yield potential of an improved variety.
- 10. IDSS Applications •Human nutritionists can project the impacts of interventions (such as small-scale irrigation to grow green and yellow vegetables) during the dry season on family nutrition. •Economists can project impacts of increased investments in additional land, fertilizer, seed, and/or irrigation on the probability of farm solvency over the next five years. •Government officials concerned about floods and sedimentation of rivers, lakes and irrigation canals can anticipate impacts of check dams on tributaries supporting small scale irrigation projects. •Government policy makers can anticipate impacts from subsidizing costs of fertilizers, seeds and other inputs on family nutrition and income from sales of agricultural products.
- 11. Potential IDSS Engagements with Drylands Systems Program Utility of integrated production-environmental- economic assessment – Explore interest/feasibility of application of the IDSS to Drylands System Program – Additional set of tools to augment ongoing modeling – Consider cross cutting themes for 5 regions to enable common linked assessment of plans and outcomes – Establish a framework to use linkages to relevant models and databases within/across projects – Part of the broader network of CG centers application of the IDSS as a component of the larger system
- 12. Contacts • Neville P. Clarke n-clarke@tamu.edu http://blackland.tamu.edu/research-projects/idss/ - Overview - Pilot Study Report - Slides from Conference
- 14. Scenarios Modeled • Current farming practices in two kebele in the Lake Tana Basin • Enhanced by optimum fertilization and water • Further enhanced by improved germplasm and cropping systems
- 15. 0 50 100 150 200 250 1/1/1993 6/1/1993 11/1/1993 4/1/1994 9/1/1994 2/1/1995 7/1/1995 12/1/1995 5/1/1996 10/1/1996 3/1/1997 8/1/1997 1/1/1998 6/1/1998 11/1/1998 4/1/1999 9/1/1999 2/1/2000 7/1/2000 12/1/2000 5/1/2001 10/1/2001 3/1/2002 8/1/2002 1/1/2003 6/1/2003 11/1/2003 4/1/2004 9/1/2004 2/1/2005 7/1/2005 12/1/2005 5/1/2006 10/1/2006 3/1/2007 8/1/2007 Observed Gmera river SWAT Simulated Flow SWAT Accurately Simulates Stream Flows Gumera River
- 16. SWAT Accurately Simulates Teff Yields South Gandor
- 17. Teff Yields Increased Dramatically with Adequate Fertilizer N
- 18. APEX – Yields Respond to Fertilizer N, Improved Varieties, and Crop Rotations
- 19. Net Cash Farm Income • Two farming interventions shift the NCFI probability distribution to the right • Relative risk increased greatly but around much higher mean incomes • Higher yields more than offset lower prices
- 20. Net Cash Farm Income
Notas do Editor
- Serve as resource person at invitation of Bill PayneFacilitator for a group of modelers and analysts at Texas A&MHelp set the context for discussion of approaches to an integrated modeling approach for research and managementImportance of further synthesis building on established experience and methods
- Those involved in the program know these well – the major dimensions of the program make up the Drylands System Matrix – target regions, themes, and interventions
- Drylands System Program is a “system of systems” where within individual cells of the matrix a system approach is envisioned and can be modeledModeling the overall Dryland Systems matrix has multiple purposes and outcomes including
- Modeling the overall Drylands system matrix is not for the faint of heart – complex and challenging.Likely involves an evolutionary processVarying levels of success and utility are expectedThe approach helps define the broad dimensions of the system and the relationship of its partsThe approach provides a tool for planning, discovery, management metrics, and outcome estimates
- Diversity of opinions s on systems approaches calls for up-front definitions in operational termsIn our groups thinking, we define an integrated system as one which links production, environmental, economic and social elements into an interactive set of computations that produce an integrated output relevant to research and users
- Colleagues at Texas A&M are working together to link a suite of well established models into an integrated system that is reasonably comprehensive and, hopefully, useful. I am suggesting this approach might be one way of moving the Drylands Program towards a consistent modeling system. Here is how it works ---
- The elements if the integrated system have earlier roots in a project done for USAID in the 90’s under the SANREM CRSP. There was further evolution of the system under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in livestock biosecurity. Most recently, the BMGF have sponsored a small contract to evaluate the utility of the system for their applications and those they sponsor. A pilot study to demonstrate the utility of the system was done in Ethiopia where our team had substantial experience and where the Foundation has strong ties.
- Our recent mission to Ethiopia established active interest in the use of the IDSS. This includes national programs where there plans are emerging for application in the MOE and the ATA. CG Centers with locations in Addis are also actively interested in the system. This includes ICARDA and the Drylands System Program
- Time does not allow a detailed description of the IDSS, but these are the most important general applications that we envision can be made – stated in general terms. The specifics are defined by each application and vary depending on needs of the user
- Specifically, we suggest that the IDSS be considered by the modeling group as one of the approaches that might be part of a medley of modeling methods that could be linked and tailored to the needs of individual and transcending elements of the Drylands System matrix.
- I am providing a “two-pager” handout with a brief description of the IDSS. My contacts are shown here along with a website where you will find a description of the IDSS, the draft report we recently completed for the Gates Foundation and an expanded set of slides from this presentation.