The project aims to develop storylines based on farmer narratives and research to identify interventions that enhance livelihoods. Field visits were conducted and dynamics among communities were identified. Upcoming visits will provide more narratives to inform the analysis. The conceptual framework uses drivers and determinants to develop storylines and scenarios, which are then assessed for vulnerability and resilience to identify viable interventions. Completing site visits, linking resilience to storylines, and taking an integrated top-down and bottom-up approach are next steps.

1. Volta Storylines and Scenarios:
A mouthpiece for interventions
that enhance livelihoods
F. Kizito, J. Barron, L. Davelaar,
S. Douxchamps, O. Cofie, K. Minong , VBDC PLs
VBDC Science Workshop
July 2012
1

2. background methods project status next steps
Study background
2

3. background
Study background
Study background
Project Objective:
To isolate storylines based on past and present research coupled with farmers
narratives, to identify common threads and interventions that could provide
various contexts for exploring AWMi for improved livelihoods of various
communities
Methodology:
o Study is being conducted at multiple scales across the Volta Basin
o Relevant system drivers have been identified
o Risk, vulnerability and adaptive framework developed
Project Outcome:
o Compelling consistent threads of storylines and scenarios
o Storylines and scenarios yield innovative ideas which can be transformed into
realistic and viable interventions that enhance livelihoods across multiple
scales
3

4. background
Study Sites
Study area covers 6 watersheds
within the Volta Basin with
some watersheds sharing the Bougouriba (V4) Boura (V3)
border between with Ghana Binaba (V3)
and Burkina Faso. The chosen
watersheds currently have on‐
going work within the VBDC.
(Note: Boura and Binaba are
not to scale)
4

5. background
Justification
Drivers on the Basin are predicted to increase the frequency and severity of
extreme events such as droughts and flooding which in turn have various social
and environmental consequences
Interventions that focus on integrated water resources management serve as
viable and promising adaptation mechanisms that reduce future risk and
vulnerability
This calls for an assessment framework to characterize the risks associated with
the Volta Basin in order to evaluate viable options or interventions for reducing
vulnerability.
Evaluate on‐ Evaluate viable
Characterize Robust
going projects interventions
key risks and adaptive
with associated for reducing
vulnerabilities management
uncertainties vulnerabilities

6. background
Conceptual Framework
Basin Drivers Determinants Preliminary Scenarios Risks, Vulnerability Viable interventions
Political, Economic, Storylines & Adaptation levels and modified storylines
Environmental,
Demographic,
Technological
V1 Worst case Very high
External Internal
V2 V1
Global Drivers Markets
V2 Policies V2
Bearable High V3
Regional Drivers
Institutions V4
V3 V3
Community Information
Drivers
Technology Best case Moderate V5
Household
V4 V4
Level Drivers Resources
V5 Present case Low
(Status Quo)
VBDC Research Outcome
The process is not linear; highly depends on the drivers which yield
preliminary storylines. These are assessed against a set of
scenarios and evaluated for risk and vulnerability to yield viable
storylines and pertinent interventions
6

7. methods
Methodology
7

8. methods
The XLRM Framework
Framework structures
analysis around key
uncertainties,
adaptation options,
performance metrics,
and analytical
relationships
The XLRM framework will aid in vulnerability assessment
8

9. methods
Tradeoff quadrant
Conducted during vulnerability assessment
VBDC Impact
High
Win‐Win Win‐Lose
Low
Win‐Lose Lose‐Lose
Low High
Uncertainty

10. methods
Vulnerability Assessment Indicators
Sensitivity Analysis: the degree to which a system is affected, either
adversely or beneficially, by climate‐related stimuli
Exposure/Risk Analysis: the nature and degree to which a system is
exposed to significant climatic variations
Adaptive Capacity Analysis: the ability of a system to adjust to
climate change
Vulnerability = f (sensitivity, exposure, adaptive capacity)
10

11. methods
Watershed Sensitivity Assessment Indicators
Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators
.
Land Use and Land Cover (LULC)
Protected area coverage
Biophysical Soils Topography (slope, aspect)
Drainage density
Dominant climate
Human Population
11

12. methods
Watershed Risk/Exposure Assessment Indicators
Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators
Mean seasonal temperature
Temperature and
trend
rainfall Mean seasonal rainfall trend
Death
Injured
Flood Property loss
Occurrence
Positive annual rainfall trend
Drought/flood risk Daily precipitation Population pressure on
index Food surplus and deficiency forest land
Reproductive rate Human poverty index
Human ecology Life expectancy Accessibility
Surface soil erosion
Physical ecology Land cover density
Landscape degradation
12

13. methods
Watershed Adaptive Capability Assessment Indicators
Parameters Direct indicators Proxy indicators
Human development index
Human poverty index
Socioeconomic Gender development index
Human empowerment index
Road length
Infrastructure* Cell phone
Electricity presence
Irrigated land area
Existence of soil and water
Technology conservation interventions e.g.
terraced areas
*Some of the socio‐economic indicators take into
account infrastructure presence
13

14. methods
Example of XLRM Framework Applicability
Basin Drivers Determinants Emerging Scenarios Risks, Vulnerability Viable interventions
Storylines & Adaptation levels & Modified storylines
Low soil fertility in
landscapes MoFA has
Impacting V2, V3 fertilizer Degraded soil
and V4 Subsidy and and water ‐Promising
Communities
communities Improved resources outcomes:
embark on
Seed variety Low crop improve soil
X L arrangements yields
Insufficient
Soil‐water
conservation
Less risk
and vulnerability
fertility, higher
crop yields and
Technologies,
L livestock feed receive subsidies
and improved
with higher adaptive
capacity and resilience
sufficient livestock
feed
‐Strategies that
R, M seed and embark
on interventions enhance
livelihoods copied
or embraced
Communities not Increased risk and neighboring
Taking part in vulnerability with communities
Initiatives or low adaptive capacity
Simply
opt for traditional
Low technology
M M
methods
L, R, M
14

15. project status
Project Update and Status
The VSS will continue enhancing VBDC project integration by framing research to
current project needs within the scope of the project
Last month, a field trip was conducted to capture farmers narratives in the
Northern region in the V2 sites
The next sites to be visited include: V3 and V4 sites in Burkina Faso in July
Current work products:
Functional Project Blog for information sharing
Past and present literature sources on Volta Basin Research (posted on blog)
Field photos, farmers videos with narratives/stories
Continued research framing to current needs
15

16. project status
Emerging community dynamics
Identified common drivers and determinants among the four
communities
o Demographic impact
o Role of technology
o Impact of climate and crop varieties
o Indigenous knowledge: e.g. use of inorganic Vs organic manures
Identified differences in communities in terms of resources, market
access, cultural norms, coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies
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17. project status
Conclusion
Narratives from upcoming visit will complement on‐going assessment
Study will endeavor to incorporate essential elements of the XLRM
framework in order to ensure a holistic approach
Vulnerability assessment maps are being developed to complement
emerging storylines and scenarios for each watershed dependent on
data availability
17

18. next steps
Identified gaps
Emphasis should be placed on linkages between vulnerability and
resilience assessment an aspect critical for achieving the VBDC
An integrated perspective that combines a top down and bottom up
approach should be sought to incorporate farmers narratives with other
policy and biophysical inputs
18

19. next steps
Next steps
Complete field visits for V3 and V4 sites
Continue conducting vulnerability assessment as a proxy for resilience
evaluation in the basin
Relate resilience to emerging storylines an aspect that would help VBDC
project integration by framing research to current project needs
19

20. 20

21. background
Conceptual Framework
Global drivers
Determinants
• Farmers narrative
• Past research
• Literature
• VBDC research
Vulnerability/
STORYLINES SCENARIOS Resilience
assessment
• XLRM
• Trade‐off analysis
• vulnerability maps
Priorities / viable interventions
evaluation
Robust adaptive management / VBDC outcomes