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Monetary
 Policy


  Group 5
  Kapali    05
  Prachi    16
  Pankaj    21
  Nikhil    28
  Kedar     40
  On Ali    52
  Chandra   56
Macroeconomic Policies


                                  Physical Policy
    Fiscal Policy
                                Related to overcoming
     Related to
                               specific problems of the
budget, government
                                       economy
expenditure, taxation


                    Monetary Policy
                 Related to money
               supply, exchange rate
               control and bank rate
                      control
Fiscal Policy

Use of “Government Expenditure”, and “taxation” to manage the economy.




Purpose of Fiscal Policy

  Stabilise economic growth, avoiding the boom and bust economic cycle




Variables affected by Fiscal Policy in the economy

   Aggregate demand and the level of economic activity
   The pattern of resource allocation
   The distribution of income.
Physical Policy

           Meant to affect only strategic points of the economy



Purpose of Physical Policy

  Overcome specific problems such as pricing of particular
  commodity, shortages or surpluses developing in the economy etc.




Variables affected by Physical Policy in the economy

   Price and distribution of specific commodity
   Investment and production
   Foreign Trade
Monetary Policy
    Regulation of supply of Money and Cost and Availability of Credit in the
                                  economy


Purpose of Monetary Policy

    Maintain price stability, ensure adequate flow of credit to the productive
    sectors of the economy and overall economic growth



  Variables affected by Monetary Policy in the economy

     Interest Rates
     Liquidity
     Credit Availability
     Exchange Rates
Monetary Policy – RBI’s role

Demand for Money           Demand for goods/services



                                  Ensuring price
   Instruments such as        stability and ensuring
  CRR, OMO & Bank Rate                savings


    Control on money             Control on bank
    supply, velocity of        credit when prices
   circulation of money              rise/fall
      during inflation
Monetary Policy – Terminology
            Inflation              • Inflation refers to a persistent rise in prices


      Money Supply (M3)            • Total volume of money circulating in the economy


                                   • Minimum rate at which the central bank provides loans to commercial
           Bank Rate                 banks

                                   • Amount of money that banks must set aside with RBI against their
   Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)          deposits

                                   • Percentage of bank funds to be maintained in government and
 Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR)     approved securities


           Repo Rate               • Rate at which RBI lends to other banks against government securities


       Reverse Repo Rate           • Rate at which RBI borrows from other banks


 Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)      • Capacity of bank meeting the time liabilities and other risk


Open Market Operations (OMO) • Purchase and sale of securities in the open market
Current Rates
    Inflation     • 0.27 (New low in 30 years)

   Bank Rate      • 6.0%

      CRR         • 5.0

      SLR         • 24.0%

   Repo Rate      • 5.0%

Reverse Repo Rate • 3.5%

    PLR           • 12.75% – 13.25%

      Re/$        • 50.95
Monetary Policy – Influence


                                  Target Variables

                                  -Inflation
Policy Variables
                                  -Interest rate
- Money supply                    -Real GDP
- OMO: Liquidity conditions       -Employment
- policy rates (CRR, repo etc.)   -Consumption
                                  -Savings
                                  -Investment
CRR Movement




Before 1991                              Result
• Government raised funds below          • Complex, distorted interest rate
  market rate                              structure
• No depth in Government Securities      • Adversely affected viability and
  Market                                   profitability of banks
• Regulation of deposit rates            • Transparency and norms could not be
                                           followed strictly
• Under developed financial
  markets, Less financial instruments
  availability
CRR Movement
                                          Rise in CRR to control liquidity,
Boost Economy after
                                          due to Heavy Capital Inflow &
 2001 Slowdown /
                                              to curb Re Appreciation
  dotcom bubble




                                                       CRR Cuts to boost
                                                         economy after
 Stable CRR from         CRR hikes to
                                                        Sub prime loss /
   2004 to 2006          curb inflation
                                                       Global meltdown
Inflation Movement
CRR hikes proved to
                       Uncontrolled Inflation despite    Inflation Down on account
    Be effective
                            Further CRR hikes               of global credit crunch
  To curb Inflation




       http://www.rgemonitor.com/emergingmarkets-monitor/archive/200806/
SLR Movement




                                         Stable SLR from
Banks to made available more funds
                                          1998 onwards
& More Efficiency
Repo and Reverse Repo rates Movement




Repo rate reduction due to make
                                     Increased rates to control the liquidity
 credit available at cheaper rates
Exchange Rate Movement




Sterilization to
                    LAF - To Control Exchange Ratio
 Control rupee
                    – Outflow of $ from India Market
 Appreciation
Forex Reserves Position


             The Surge in Foreign Exchange Reserves




                                              Sterilization / Selling bonds
                                                     & Buying dollars
www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/248231
Sterilization under MSS




                Sterilization bonds under (MSS) - April 2004
                 Cap. Rs.700 Cr. In 2005 & 1500 Cr. In 2007
www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/248231
Current Global Scenario
18




Global GDP -0.6%
                                                              World trade
                                                             contraction by
                                            Tighter credit
                                                                  2.8%
                      Recession
Estimated PPP
Global Growth
                                    Production
     0.5%
                                      Plunge

           Demand Slump

                       Job losses

     Aggressive and unconventional measures taken by
              Governments and central banks
Impact on India

                            Money and credit market
                      Domestic
                       Banks
         Local
      Institutions

                     Domestic MFs        NBFC




                                        Re      $




Financial Channel
Challenges for RBI
20




                         Growth amid
                  Global economic slowdown
Limitations – Monetary Policy
21




     Cannot simultaneously stimulate economic demand to reduce
     unemployment and restrain demand to combat inflation

     Monetary policy is restricted by the impact of other government
     actions, especially Fiscal policy, i.e. decisions about government
     expenditures and taxation

     Problems of an inflexible labour market, inadequate infrastructure
     and, most important, fiscal policy whose discipline is open to
     question limits the effectiveness of the Monetary policy



             Monetary Policy cannot work in isolation!!
Thank You

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RBI Monetary Policy

  • 1. Monetary Policy Group 5 Kapali 05 Prachi 16 Pankaj 21 Nikhil 28 Kedar 40 On Ali 52 Chandra 56
  • 2. Macroeconomic Policies Physical Policy Fiscal Policy Related to overcoming Related to specific problems of the budget, government economy expenditure, taxation Monetary Policy Related to money supply, exchange rate control and bank rate control
  • 3. Fiscal Policy Use of “Government Expenditure”, and “taxation” to manage the economy. Purpose of Fiscal Policy Stabilise economic growth, avoiding the boom and bust economic cycle Variables affected by Fiscal Policy in the economy Aggregate demand and the level of economic activity The pattern of resource allocation The distribution of income.
  • 4. Physical Policy Meant to affect only strategic points of the economy Purpose of Physical Policy Overcome specific problems such as pricing of particular commodity, shortages or surpluses developing in the economy etc. Variables affected by Physical Policy in the economy Price and distribution of specific commodity Investment and production Foreign Trade
  • 5. Monetary Policy Regulation of supply of Money and Cost and Availability of Credit in the economy Purpose of Monetary Policy Maintain price stability, ensure adequate flow of credit to the productive sectors of the economy and overall economic growth Variables affected by Monetary Policy in the economy Interest Rates Liquidity Credit Availability Exchange Rates
  • 6. Monetary Policy – RBI’s role Demand for Money Demand for goods/services Ensuring price Instruments such as stability and ensuring CRR, OMO & Bank Rate savings Control on money Control on bank supply, velocity of credit when prices circulation of money rise/fall during inflation
  • 7. Monetary Policy – Terminology Inflation • Inflation refers to a persistent rise in prices Money Supply (M3) • Total volume of money circulating in the economy • Minimum rate at which the central bank provides loans to commercial Bank Rate banks • Amount of money that banks must set aside with RBI against their Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) deposits • Percentage of bank funds to be maintained in government and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) approved securities Repo Rate • Rate at which RBI lends to other banks against government securities Reverse Repo Rate • Rate at which RBI borrows from other banks Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) • Capacity of bank meeting the time liabilities and other risk Open Market Operations (OMO) • Purchase and sale of securities in the open market
  • 8. Current Rates Inflation • 0.27 (New low in 30 years) Bank Rate • 6.0% CRR • 5.0 SLR • 24.0% Repo Rate • 5.0% Reverse Repo Rate • 3.5% PLR • 12.75% – 13.25% Re/$ • 50.95
  • 9. Monetary Policy – Influence Target Variables -Inflation Policy Variables -Interest rate - Money supply -Real GDP - OMO: Liquidity conditions -Employment - policy rates (CRR, repo etc.) -Consumption -Savings -Investment
  • 10. CRR Movement Before 1991 Result • Government raised funds below • Complex, distorted interest rate market rate structure • No depth in Government Securities • Adversely affected viability and Market profitability of banks • Regulation of deposit rates • Transparency and norms could not be followed strictly • Under developed financial markets, Less financial instruments availability
  • 11. CRR Movement Rise in CRR to control liquidity, Boost Economy after due to Heavy Capital Inflow & 2001 Slowdown / to curb Re Appreciation dotcom bubble CRR Cuts to boost economy after Stable CRR from CRR hikes to Sub prime loss / 2004 to 2006 curb inflation Global meltdown
  • 12. Inflation Movement CRR hikes proved to Uncontrolled Inflation despite Inflation Down on account Be effective Further CRR hikes of global credit crunch To curb Inflation http://www.rgemonitor.com/emergingmarkets-monitor/archive/200806/
  • 13. SLR Movement Stable SLR from Banks to made available more funds 1998 onwards & More Efficiency
  • 14. Repo and Reverse Repo rates Movement Repo rate reduction due to make Increased rates to control the liquidity credit available at cheaper rates
  • 15. Exchange Rate Movement Sterilization to LAF - To Control Exchange Ratio Control rupee – Outflow of $ from India Market Appreciation
  • 16. Forex Reserves Position The Surge in Foreign Exchange Reserves Sterilization / Selling bonds & Buying dollars www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/248231
  • 17. Sterilization under MSS Sterilization bonds under (MSS) - April 2004 Cap. Rs.700 Cr. In 2005 & 1500 Cr. In 2007 www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/248231
  • 18. Current Global Scenario 18 Global GDP -0.6% World trade contraction by Tighter credit 2.8% Recession Estimated PPP Global Growth Production 0.5% Plunge Demand Slump Job losses Aggressive and unconventional measures taken by Governments and central banks
  • 19. Impact on India Money and credit market Domestic Banks Local Institutions Domestic MFs NBFC Re $ Financial Channel
  • 20. Challenges for RBI 20 Growth amid Global economic slowdown
  • 21. Limitations – Monetary Policy 21 Cannot simultaneously stimulate economic demand to reduce unemployment and restrain demand to combat inflation Monetary policy is restricted by the impact of other government actions, especially Fiscal policy, i.e. decisions about government expenditures and taxation Problems of an inflexible labour market, inadequate infrastructure and, most important, fiscal policy whose discipline is open to question limits the effectiveness of the Monetary policy Monetary Policy cannot work in isolation!!