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                                                            Greater Cleveland Partnership
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                                                    Youngstown-Warren Regional Chamber
                                         Medina County Economic Development Corporation
                                                   Growth Partnership of Ashtabula County




                     Cleveland
                     Plus       ®




                     Economic
                     Review
                     December 2009
                     Volume 3, Issue 4




Diversifying Industries
Positively Impacting
Cleveland Plus Economy:
A Northeast Ohio View of the Global Recession


www.clevelandplusbusiness.com
December 2009 | Volume 3, Issue 4



              The Cleveland Plus Economy                                                                     ®




              Through Two Recessions
              The U.S. has experienced two major recessions in                                               Therefore, today it is important to know how
              the last 30 years: one beginning in 1981, and the                                              we are doing in comparison – both to the 1981
              current recession, which began in 2007. In the 1981                                            recession and to the nation. To evaluate this,
              recession, the Cleveland Plus region saw much                                                  the following report looks at the Cleveland
              greater declines in employment and Gross Regional                                              Plus region’s performance through the first
              Product (GRP) than for the U.S. as a whole.                                                    seven quarters of each recession.




              Current                                                                                                            NEO vs U.S. Employment
                                                                                                                                 1981 vs. 2007 Recession

              Recession                                                               +2%                                                                                                                                              +



              Trending                                                                 0

                                                                                      -2%                                                                                                                        U.S. ‘81
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -
                                                                          % Change




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            % Change
              Closer to U.S.                                                          -4%                                                                                                                        U.S.‘07               -
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 NEO ‘07
                                                                                      -6%                                                                                                                                              -

                                                                                      -8%                                                                                                                                              -
              An indicator of regional                                               -10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 NEO ‘81
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -1
              economic strength is the                                                       Q3 in ‘81 vs.
                                                                                              Q4 in ’07
                                                                                                                 Q4 in ‘81 vs.
                                                                                                                  Q1 in ’08
                                                                                                                                 Q1 in ‘82 vs.
                                                                                                                                  Q2 in ’08
                                                                                                                                                 Q2 in ‘82 vs.
                                                                                                                                                  Q3 in ’08
                                                                                                                                                                   Q3 in ‘82 vs.
                                                                                                                                                                    Q4 in ’08
                                                                                                                                                                                    Q4 in ‘82 vs.
                                                                                                                                                                                     Q1 in ’09
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Q1 in ‘83 vs.
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q2 in ’09
              comparison of employment                                                           U.S. in ‘81                      NEO in ‘81                     U.S. in ‘07                   NEO in ‘07
              and GRP indexes. During the
              1981 recession, Cleveland Plus                              > From 1981 to 2007,                                                                                  Source : Economy.com and Ohio LMI

              employment and GRP rate                                       Employment has increased
              dropped more sharply than the                                 by nearly 100,000 individuals
              U.S. During the current recession,
NEO vs U.S. Employment and GRP are only
              employment                                                                                                               NEO vs U.S. GRP
1981 vs. 2007 Recession                                                                                                          1981 vs. 2007 Recession
              now approaching the decline
              experienced in 1981. And, the
                                                                                      +2%
              change in Cleveland Plus
                                                                                       0
              employment and GRP is                                                                                                                                                                              U.S.‘81
                                                                                      -2%
              tracking much closer to the U.S.‘81
                                                                           % Change




                                                        U.S.‘07                                                                                                                                                  U.S. ‘07
              changes for the U.S. In this                                            -4%
                                                        NEO ‘07
              recession, Northeast Ohio                                               -6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 NEO ’07
              is performing more in                                                   -8%                                                                                                                        NEO ‘81
                                                        NEO ‘81

Q1 in ‘82 vs.
              line ‘82 vs. the ‘82 vs. average. Q1 in ‘83 vs.
                Q2 in
                      with Q3 in U.S. Q4 in ‘82 vs.                                   -10%
                                                                                             Q3 in ‘81 vs.       Q4 in ‘81 vs.   Q1 in ‘82 vs.   Q2 in ‘82 vs.     Q3 in ‘82 vs.    Q4 in ‘82 vs.       Q1 in ‘83 vs.
 Q2 in ’08      Q3 in ’08      Q4 in ’08   Q1 in ’09          Q2 in ’09                       Q4 in ’07           Q1 in ’08       Q2 in ’08       Q3 in ’08         Q4 in ’08        Q1 in ’09           Q2 in ’09

 NEO in ‘81                 U.S. in ‘07                NEO in ‘07                                  U.S. in ‘81                      NEO in ‘81                    U.S. in ‘07                       NEO in ‘07

                                                                                                                                                                                               Source : Economy.com
                                                                          > From 1981 to 2007,
              All data are for seven quarters of each respective            GRP has increased by almost $65 billion
              recession and does not project future performance.




               www.clevelandplusbusiness.com
Industry Mix Impacts GRP and Employment
Because GRP represents the economic activity                          For example, in the current recession, U.S.
of Northeast Ohio’s industries, changes in industry                   Manufacturing employment has declined
mix will affect total GRP and employment trends.                      nearly 14%, while Professional, Scientific and
In reviewing GRP and employment during both                           Technical Services is essentially unchanged.
recessions, Manufacturing accounted for a signifi-                    Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, while suffering,
cantly higher percentage of GRP and employment                        is down only half as much as Manufacturing.
in 1981 than today. Meanwhile, higher growth                          Healthcare employment is actually up almost 5%.
industries such as Finance, Insurance and Real                        The shift in the Northeast Ohio economy to these
Estate (FIRE); Healthcare; and Professional,                          more stable industries is having a beneficial effect
Scientific and Technical Services have become                         on this recession.
larger segments of NEO’s industrial mix. This more
diversified NEO industry mix may account for
NEO’s closer alignment with U.S. employment and
GRP rate trends during the current recession.


                                        Employment as Percent of NEO Economy by Industry
                                                               1980 vs. 2007 Recession


                          Health Care & Social Assistance


                  Management of Companies & Enterprises

                                  Professional, Scientific,
                                    & Technical Services

                       Finance, Insurance and Real Estate


                                                    Trade


                                           Manufacturing


                                                 All Other


                                                          0%   5%   10%   15%       20%      25%   30%   35%   40%         45%

                                                                           ■ 1980         ■ 2007

                                                                                                               Source : Economy.com




   “The growing correspondence of Northeast Ohio’s economic performance
    measured by both employment and GRP with that of the national economy in
    the recession offers a glimmer of the promise of the ongoing industrial restructuring
    of the region’s economy. The trend toward higher levels of education in the
    Northeast Ohio workforce is an encouraging reflection of the changing
    industrial composition and a foundation for future growth.”
     Dr. Larry Ledebur,
     Cleveland State University Economist and Professor
NEO Workforce with
higher Education Doubles
In line with the structural changes in the economy, Northeast Ohio’s workforce, ages 25 and older, has also
transitioned to accommodate higher skilled industries. The percentage of individuals with some college
education has increased by about 120%, while individuals with a bachelor's or an advanced degree has
increased by nearly 75%. The increasing share of workforce with higher education is fueling the Cleveland Plus
region’s economic transformation.


                                                   NEO Composition in Educational Attainment
                                                                    1980 vs. 2008

                             Bachelors or higher
                                                             4%
                         Some College/Associates


                               High School Grad


                            Less than 12th grade


                                               0%       5%    10%     15%      20%     25%     30%     35%      40%         45%

                                                                          ■ 1980     ■ 2008

                                                                                                             Source : US Census Bureau




Industry Diversification                                            PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TEChNICAL SERVICES :
                                                                    Similarly, 79% growth in the Professional, Scientific
                                                                    and Technical Services sector from 1992-2007, with
Benefits Economy                                                    Scientific Research and Development doubling U.S.
                                                                    growth, has further diversified the region’s economy.
Cleveland Plus Economic Reviews provide an                          AEROSPACE-RELATED : Moreover, strength in the $8
aggregate view of long-term trends in Northeast                     billion Aerospace-Related sector continues to play an
Ohio’s economy. In 2009, we reported growth of                      important role in diversifying Northeast Ohio’s economy.
specific sectors - Biomedical; Professional, Scientific             With 59% GRP growth in the last 15 years, more
and Technical Services; and Aerospace-Related –                     sophisticated products are being manufactured
and how they are diversifying the region’s economy.                 in Cleveland Plus.
In this final report of 2009, we see that the diversifica-
tion of industries has led to closer tracking to the                hEADqUARTERS : Finally, Northeast Ohio remains in
U.S. during this recession as compared to the                       the nation’s top 4 regions for Headquarters employ-
1981 recession.                                                     ment share, ensuring a strong management base for
                                                                    our region’s growing companies and industries.
BIOMEDICAL : With billions of dollars in private and
public investment, world-renowned healthcare                        With the Cleveland Plus region’s strong heritage
institutions and clinical trial leadership, Northeast               of invention, a strong base of significant research
Ohio’s Biomedical industry has outpaced U.S.                        institutions and a growing entrepreneurial sector,
growth. In particular, our region’s strength in Imaging,            Northeast Ohio has diversified our economy, and
Orthopedics and Cardiovascular, plus our transitioning              employment and therefore, remains relatively strong
manufacturing workforce have led to growth in the                   through this recession. ALL OF ThIS ADDS UP FOR BUSINESS.
Medical Device manufacturing sector.
NEO Employment                                                                                                                                                    NEO Total Employment ( Not Seasonally Adjusted )

Up Slightly in q3                                                                                                                                   2.10

                                                                                                                                                    2.05

                                                                                                                                                    2.00

This chart shows total employment year over




                                                                                                                                       (Millions)
                                                                                                                                                    1.95

year for comparison of seasonal patterns.                                                                                                           1.90

There is typically incremental job growth                                                                                                           1.85


between Q2 and Q3, and Northeast Ohio                                                                                                               1.80




                                                                                                                                                                                               2007
                                                                                                                                                            2003
                                                                                                                                                            2004
                                                                                                                                                            2005
                                                                                                                                                            2006
                                                                                                                                                            2007
                                                                                                                                                            2008
                                                                                                                                                            2009

                                                                                                                                                                                               2003
                                                                                                                                                                                               2004
                                                                                                                                                                                               2005
                                                                                                                                                                                               2006

                                                                                                                                                                                               2008
                                                                                                                                                                                               2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2008
saw employment increase by approximately
                                                                                                                                                                           Q1                                 Q2                                  Q3                                Q4
3,000 jobs in the third quarter. Employment
is down approximately 5% from Q3 2008.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Source : Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data)




NEO Unemployment                                                                                                                                                           NEO Quarterly Unemployment Rate

Rate Declines Slightly                                                                                                                              12.0%
                                                                                                                                                    11.5%
                                                                                                                                                    11.0%
                                                                                                                                                    10.5%
                                                                                                                                                    10.0%
The Northeast Ohio unadjusted                                                                                                                        9.5%
                                                                                                                                                     9.0%
unemployment rate declined slightly                                                                                                                  8.5%
                                                                                                                                                     8.0%
in the 3rd quarter, following the trend of                                                                                                           7.5%
                                                                                                                                                     7.0%
the overall U.S. economy. The rate dipped                                                                                                            6.5%
                                                                                                                                                     6.0%
to 10.3% in Q3 2009, with the U.S. at                                                                                                                5.5%
                                                                                                                                                     5.0%
9.6% and the state of Ohio is at 10.5%.                                                                                                              4.5%
                                                                                                                                                     4.0%
This decline is a result of both an increase
                                                                                                                                                                 Q2




                                                                                                                                                                                     Q2




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Q2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Q2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Q3
                                                                                                                                                                      Q3




                                                                                                                                                                                          Q3




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Q3




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q3




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q3




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Q3
                                                                                                                                                            Q1



                                                                                                                                                                           Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                Q1



                                                                                                                                                                                               Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Q1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Q1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Q1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q1
                                                                                                                                                                 2003                2004                2005                2006                2007                2008            2009
in total employment, as well as a drop in
                                                                                                                                                                                               NEO 16 counties                     Ohio                U.S.
the overall size of the workforce.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Source : Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data)




                               NEO Real GRP Billions (2008 Dollars)                                                                                  GRP Estimates Continue to
                                                                                                                                                     be Adjusted for Recession
   $190
                                                                                          2.4%   0.7% (-1.5%) (-.4%) (-1%)
   $180                                                                            1.8%
                                                     1.2%    0.3%
                                              2.6%                  (-1.9)% 1.2%                                             (-5.1%)
   $170
                                       4.8%

                                                                                                                                                     The most recent estimates from economy.com
                        3.8%   3.0%
   $160

   $150          5.1%

   $140
          0.3%                                                                                                                                       show Northeast Ohio’s GRP contracting by
   $130                                                                                                                                              approximately 5% in 2009. This decline reflects
   $120
          1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009                                                       the ongoing recession in the U.S. economy.
                                      Real GRP              Average Annual Growth = 1.4%
                                                                                                                                                     Data from economy.com is continuously
                                                                                                                                                     updated and are subject to revisions.
Source : Moody’s Economy.com
December 2009 | Volume 3, Issue 4



Industrial Space Strong                                                                                        NEO Occupied Industrial Space & Vacancy Rate
Despite Economic                                                                                                405                                                                                                    9.5%




                                                                            Occupied Square Feet (Millions)
Downturn
                                                                                                                400                                                                                                    9.0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Vacancy Rate
                                                                                                                395                                                                                                    8.5%

                                                                                                                390                                                                                                    8.0%

This graph shows the total amount of                                                                            385                                                                                                    7.5%

industrial space occupied by quarter                                                                            380                                                                                                    7.0%

between the first quarter of 2005 and the                                                                       375                                                                                                    6.5%




                                                                                                                      Q2

                                                                                                                            Q3

                                                                                                                                  Q4

                                                                                                                                       Q1

                                                                                                                                            Q2

                                                                                                                                                 Q3

                                                                                                                                                      Q4

                                                                                                                                                           Q1

                                                                                                                                                                Q2

                                                                                                                                                                     Q3

                                                                                                                                                                          Q4

                                                                                                                                                                               Q1

                                                                                                                                                                                    Q2

                                                                                                                                                                                         Q3

                                                                                                                                                                                              Q4

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q1

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q2

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Q3
third quarter of 2009. The vacancy rate for                                                                                2005              2006                2007               2008                2009

industrial space in Northeast Ohio rose                                                                                                     Occupied Square Feet                     Vacancy Rate
slightly to 7.6% in Q3 2009, while occupied
space continues to remain fairly stable.                                                                                                                                                       Source : CoStar Industrial Data




About Team NEO                                                                                                Industrial real estate data for this edition was derived from the CoStar Group.
                                                                                                              The CoStar Group is a leading provider of commercial real estate data
                                                                                                              throughout the United States, covering more than 58 billion square feet
                                                                                                              of property throughout the country.
Team NEO advances Northeast Ohio’s
economy by attracting businesses worldwide                                                                    Due to market limits within the CoStar database, historic trend data for the
                                                                                                              Team NEO region is defined as 10 of the 16 counties forming the regional
to the 16-county Cleveland Plus region.                                                                       footprint. These counties include Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake,
The organization is a joint venture of the                                                                    Lorain, Medina, Portage, Richland, Stark and Summit.

region’s largest metro chambers of commerce.
Since 2007, the organization has attracted 29
new companies, 3,100 new jobs and more
than $95M in annual payroll to Northeast Ohio,
                                                                                                              Cleveland Plus 16-County Region
leading to a total regional annual payroll impact                                                                                                                                                                  Ashtabula
                                                                                                                                                                                               Lake
of more than $260M. For more information,
visit www.clevelandplusbusiness.com.
                                                                                                                                                                           Cleveland Geauga
Data Sources: Team Northeast Ohio uses a number of data sources for                                                                                                  Cuyahoga
the Regional Economic Review. One of the primary sources is the Moody’s
                                                                                                                                                    Lorain                                                          Trumbull
Economy.com (www.economy.com) Northeast Ohio modeling system.
This firm is the leading independent provider of economic, financial and
                                                                                                                                                                               Summit Portage
industry research and data that specializes in national and metropolitan                                                                                                                      Youngstown
economic growth forecasts. Moody’s Economy.com county level output,                                                                                             Medina             Akron
employment and payroll historical data are estimated from several                                                                                                                                 Mahoning
publicly available sources and are summarized into the Team NEO
regional footprint. It is important to understand data provided by                                                                          Ashland
Economy.com are estimates of economic activity.                                                                                                                 Wayne                          Canton              Columbiana
                                                                                                                            Richland                                                Stark
Team NEO also uses data from federal and state sources as part of the
report. As with Economy.com, the information for the Team NEO footprint
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Carroll
is derived from data reported at either the county or metropolitan level.
We rely heavily on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
(www.bls.gov) and Ohio’s Labor Market Information (www.lmi.state.oh.us)
for information on wages, unemployment and both general and industry-
specific employment. In addition, Team NEO uses data from the Census
(www.census.gov) to track housing-related activity including the
number of single and multifamily permits, as well as their values.




737 Bolivar Road, Suite 2000, Cleveland, Ohio 44115
888.NEO.1411 • www.clevelandplusbusiness.com

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December 2009 Cleveland Plus Quarterly Economic Review

  • 1. Our partners include: Greater Cleveland Partnership Greater Akron Chamber Stark Development Board Team Lorain County Youngstown-Warren Regional Chamber Medina County Economic Development Corporation Growth Partnership of Ashtabula County Cleveland Plus ® Economic Review December 2009 Volume 3, Issue 4 Diversifying Industries Positively Impacting Cleveland Plus Economy: A Northeast Ohio View of the Global Recession www.clevelandplusbusiness.com
  • 2. December 2009 | Volume 3, Issue 4 The Cleveland Plus Economy ® Through Two Recessions The U.S. has experienced two major recessions in Therefore, today it is important to know how the last 30 years: one beginning in 1981, and the we are doing in comparison – both to the 1981 current recession, which began in 2007. In the 1981 recession and to the nation. To evaluate this, recession, the Cleveland Plus region saw much the following report looks at the Cleveland greater declines in employment and Gross Regional Plus region’s performance through the first Product (GRP) than for the U.S. as a whole. seven quarters of each recession. Current NEO vs U.S. Employment 1981 vs. 2007 Recession Recession +2% + Trending 0 -2% U.S. ‘81 - % Change % Change Closer to U.S. -4% U.S.‘07 - NEO ‘07 -6% - -8% - An indicator of regional -10% NEO ‘81 -1 economic strength is the Q3 in ‘81 vs. Q4 in ’07 Q4 in ‘81 vs. Q1 in ’08 Q1 in ‘82 vs. Q2 in ’08 Q2 in ‘82 vs. Q3 in ’08 Q3 in ‘82 vs. Q4 in ’08 Q4 in ‘82 vs. Q1 in ’09 Q1 in ‘83 vs. Q2 in ’09 comparison of employment U.S. in ‘81 NEO in ‘81 U.S. in ‘07 NEO in ‘07 and GRP indexes. During the 1981 recession, Cleveland Plus > From 1981 to 2007, Source : Economy.com and Ohio LMI employment and GRP rate Employment has increased dropped more sharply than the by nearly 100,000 individuals U.S. During the current recession, NEO vs U.S. Employment and GRP are only employment NEO vs U.S. GRP 1981 vs. 2007 Recession 1981 vs. 2007 Recession now approaching the decline experienced in 1981. And, the +2% change in Cleveland Plus 0 employment and GRP is U.S.‘81 -2% tracking much closer to the U.S.‘81 % Change U.S.‘07 U.S. ‘07 changes for the U.S. In this -4% NEO ‘07 recession, Northeast Ohio -6% NEO ’07 is performing more in -8% NEO ‘81 NEO ‘81 Q1 in ‘82 vs. line ‘82 vs. the ‘82 vs. average. Q1 in ‘83 vs. Q2 in with Q3 in U.S. Q4 in ‘82 vs. -10% Q3 in ‘81 vs. Q4 in ‘81 vs. Q1 in ‘82 vs. Q2 in ‘82 vs. Q3 in ‘82 vs. Q4 in ‘82 vs. Q1 in ‘83 vs. Q2 in ’08 Q3 in ’08 Q4 in ’08 Q1 in ’09 Q2 in ’09 Q4 in ’07 Q1 in ’08 Q2 in ’08 Q3 in ’08 Q4 in ’08 Q1 in ’09 Q2 in ’09 NEO in ‘81 U.S. in ‘07 NEO in ‘07 U.S. in ‘81 NEO in ‘81 U.S. in ‘07 NEO in ‘07 Source : Economy.com > From 1981 to 2007, All data are for seven quarters of each respective GRP has increased by almost $65 billion recession and does not project future performance. www.clevelandplusbusiness.com
  • 3. Industry Mix Impacts GRP and Employment Because GRP represents the economic activity For example, in the current recession, U.S. of Northeast Ohio’s industries, changes in industry Manufacturing employment has declined mix will affect total GRP and employment trends. nearly 14%, while Professional, Scientific and In reviewing GRP and employment during both Technical Services is essentially unchanged. recessions, Manufacturing accounted for a signifi- Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, while suffering, cantly higher percentage of GRP and employment is down only half as much as Manufacturing. in 1981 than today. Meanwhile, higher growth Healthcare employment is actually up almost 5%. industries such as Finance, Insurance and Real The shift in the Northeast Ohio economy to these Estate (FIRE); Healthcare; and Professional, more stable industries is having a beneficial effect Scientific and Technical Services have become on this recession. larger segments of NEO’s industrial mix. This more diversified NEO industry mix may account for NEO’s closer alignment with U.S. employment and GRP rate trends during the current recession. Employment as Percent of NEO Economy by Industry 1980 vs. 2007 Recession Health Care & Social Assistance Management of Companies & Enterprises Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Trade Manufacturing All Other 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% ■ 1980 ■ 2007 Source : Economy.com “The growing correspondence of Northeast Ohio’s economic performance measured by both employment and GRP with that of the national economy in the recession offers a glimmer of the promise of the ongoing industrial restructuring of the region’s economy. The trend toward higher levels of education in the Northeast Ohio workforce is an encouraging reflection of the changing industrial composition and a foundation for future growth.” Dr. Larry Ledebur, Cleveland State University Economist and Professor
  • 4. NEO Workforce with higher Education Doubles In line with the structural changes in the economy, Northeast Ohio’s workforce, ages 25 and older, has also transitioned to accommodate higher skilled industries. The percentage of individuals with some college education has increased by about 120%, while individuals with a bachelor's or an advanced degree has increased by nearly 75%. The increasing share of workforce with higher education is fueling the Cleveland Plus region’s economic transformation. NEO Composition in Educational Attainment 1980 vs. 2008 Bachelors or higher 4% Some College/Associates High School Grad Less than 12th grade 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% ■ 1980 ■ 2008 Source : US Census Bureau Industry Diversification PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TEChNICAL SERVICES : Similarly, 79% growth in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector from 1992-2007, with Benefits Economy Scientific Research and Development doubling U.S. growth, has further diversified the region’s economy. Cleveland Plus Economic Reviews provide an AEROSPACE-RELATED : Moreover, strength in the $8 aggregate view of long-term trends in Northeast billion Aerospace-Related sector continues to play an Ohio’s economy. In 2009, we reported growth of important role in diversifying Northeast Ohio’s economy. specific sectors - Biomedical; Professional, Scientific With 59% GRP growth in the last 15 years, more and Technical Services; and Aerospace-Related – sophisticated products are being manufactured and how they are diversifying the region’s economy. in Cleveland Plus. In this final report of 2009, we see that the diversifica- tion of industries has led to closer tracking to the hEADqUARTERS : Finally, Northeast Ohio remains in U.S. during this recession as compared to the the nation’s top 4 regions for Headquarters employ- 1981 recession. ment share, ensuring a strong management base for our region’s growing companies and industries. BIOMEDICAL : With billions of dollars in private and public investment, world-renowned healthcare With the Cleveland Plus region’s strong heritage institutions and clinical trial leadership, Northeast of invention, a strong base of significant research Ohio’s Biomedical industry has outpaced U.S. institutions and a growing entrepreneurial sector, growth. In particular, our region’s strength in Imaging, Northeast Ohio has diversified our economy, and Orthopedics and Cardiovascular, plus our transitioning employment and therefore, remains relatively strong manufacturing workforce have led to growth in the through this recession. ALL OF ThIS ADDS UP FOR BUSINESS. Medical Device manufacturing sector.
  • 5. NEO Employment NEO Total Employment ( Not Seasonally Adjusted ) Up Slightly in q3 2.10 2.05 2.00 This chart shows total employment year over (Millions) 1.95 year for comparison of seasonal patterns. 1.90 There is typically incremental job growth 1.85 between Q2 and Q3, and Northeast Ohio 1.80 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 saw employment increase by approximately Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 3,000 jobs in the third quarter. Employment is down approximately 5% from Q3 2008. Source : Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data) NEO Unemployment NEO Quarterly Unemployment Rate Rate Declines Slightly 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% The Northeast Ohio unadjusted 9.5% 9.0% unemployment rate declined slightly 8.5% 8.0% in the 3rd quarter, following the trend of 7.5% 7.0% the overall U.S. economy. The rate dipped 6.5% 6.0% to 10.3% in Q3 2009, with the U.S. at 5.5% 5.0% 9.6% and the state of Ohio is at 10.5%. 4.5% 4.0% This decline is a result of both an increase Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 in total employment, as well as a drop in NEO 16 counties Ohio U.S. the overall size of the workforce. Source : Ohio Labor Market Information (LAUS Data) NEO Real GRP Billions (2008 Dollars) GRP Estimates Continue to be Adjusted for Recession $190 2.4% 0.7% (-1.5%) (-.4%) (-1%) $180 1.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2.6% (-1.9)% 1.2% (-5.1%) $170 4.8% The most recent estimates from economy.com 3.8% 3.0% $160 $150 5.1% $140 0.3% show Northeast Ohio’s GRP contracting by $130 approximately 5% in 2009. This decline reflects $120 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 the ongoing recession in the U.S. economy. Real GRP Average Annual Growth = 1.4% Data from economy.com is continuously updated and are subject to revisions. Source : Moody’s Economy.com
  • 6. December 2009 | Volume 3, Issue 4 Industrial Space Strong NEO Occupied Industrial Space & Vacancy Rate Despite Economic 405 9.5% Occupied Square Feet (Millions) Downturn 400 9.0% Vacancy Rate 395 8.5% 390 8.0% This graph shows the total amount of 385 7.5% industrial space occupied by quarter 380 7.0% between the first quarter of 2005 and the 375 6.5% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 third quarter of 2009. The vacancy rate for 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 industrial space in Northeast Ohio rose Occupied Square Feet Vacancy Rate slightly to 7.6% in Q3 2009, while occupied space continues to remain fairly stable. Source : CoStar Industrial Data About Team NEO Industrial real estate data for this edition was derived from the CoStar Group. The CoStar Group is a leading provider of commercial real estate data throughout the United States, covering more than 58 billion square feet of property throughout the country. Team NEO advances Northeast Ohio’s economy by attracting businesses worldwide Due to market limits within the CoStar database, historic trend data for the Team NEO region is defined as 10 of the 16 counties forming the regional to the 16-county Cleveland Plus region. footprint. These counties include Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, The organization is a joint venture of the Lorain, Medina, Portage, Richland, Stark and Summit. region’s largest metro chambers of commerce. Since 2007, the organization has attracted 29 new companies, 3,100 new jobs and more than $95M in annual payroll to Northeast Ohio, Cleveland Plus 16-County Region leading to a total regional annual payroll impact Ashtabula Lake of more than $260M. For more information, visit www.clevelandplusbusiness.com. Cleveland Geauga Data Sources: Team Northeast Ohio uses a number of data sources for Cuyahoga the Regional Economic Review. One of the primary sources is the Moody’s Lorain Trumbull Economy.com (www.economy.com) Northeast Ohio modeling system. This firm is the leading independent provider of economic, financial and Summit Portage industry research and data that specializes in national and metropolitan Youngstown economic growth forecasts. Moody’s Economy.com county level output, Medina Akron employment and payroll historical data are estimated from several Mahoning publicly available sources and are summarized into the Team NEO regional footprint. It is important to understand data provided by Ashland Economy.com are estimates of economic activity. Wayne Canton Columbiana Richland Stark Team NEO also uses data from federal and state sources as part of the report. As with Economy.com, the information for the Team NEO footprint Carroll is derived from data reported at either the county or metropolitan level. We rely heavily on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) and Ohio’s Labor Market Information (www.lmi.state.oh.us) for information on wages, unemployment and both general and industry- specific employment. In addition, Team NEO uses data from the Census (www.census.gov) to track housing-related activity including the number of single and multifamily permits, as well as their values. 737 Bolivar Road, Suite 2000, Cleveland, Ohio 44115 888.NEO.1411 • www.clevelandplusbusiness.com