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Internet Word of Mouth Proven to Have Impact
on Auto Sales in China
A joint white paper by CIC and R3


Executive Summary
   Independent Research covering over 12 months of China’s automotive sales
    by model, linked with online word of mouth per model
   Data shows correlation between sales and online buzz volume and in several
    cases with online buzz trend one month ahead of sales trend.
   Foreign brands and higher priced car models show stronger correlation
   Marketers need to take a more proactive approach to encourage their
    campaigns to be spread online,

With the Internet starting to have an increasingly powerful effect on the
relationship between brands and their consumers, marketers are now starting to
track and effectively measure what is being said about their brand online and
where possible to leverage the power of Internet Word of Mouth (IWOM) to their
advantage. Those who master the art are said to boost their return on
investment (ROI). This is especially true for China, where marketers need a
special weapon to fight against intense competition and a cultural climate of
great skepticism and distrust that advertisers face.

But to what extent does online buzz actually help marketers’ achieve their
bottom line? Studying 12 months data of 42 auto brands in China, R3 and CIC
measured the performance of IWOM in terms of its impact on sales.


The Art of Measuring WOM
WOM, whether online or face
to face, allows consumers to
communicate with each
other, hopefully referring a
positive product experience.
It also allows brands to
connect with consumers,
directly or through sharing of
other consumer generated
content, to highlight product
strength and brand value.
They are many different sources of IWOM, including BBS and forums, social
networks (i.e. KaiXin001, RenRen), Instant Messenger (i.e. MSN, QQ), blogs &
micro-blogs, and Q&A and review sites.

In addition to measuring quantity of IWOM on these sources, marketers can also
look at the quality or the sentiment of IWOM, with new advanced text-mining
technology such as those developed by CIC, now being able to help brands
identify whether a piece is positive, negative or neutral.




Chart 1 - Social network landscape of Xcar 307 forum, Dec 2008, from CIC Syndicated Auto report


What’s more interesting about advanced IWOM text mining technology is its
capability to help marketers identify in great detail what is being said about
brands by their customers on the Internet, and to then even visualize online
interactions and help identify who are the influencers (pictured above). Meaning
that if marketers now have an in-depth understanding as to what consumers are
talking about their brands and where/by who all that talking is going on,
marketers can leverage the company’s communication service and R&D
resources to address these issues, ensure the target consumers are addressed,
and in the process improve marketing ROI.

One limitation of WOM measurement is that technology cannot differentiate
consumer generated content from advertisers’ commercial messages, however
by taking this into consideration it’s still important that marketers realize what
consumers encounter when researching about brands or products online.
(Source - CIC Making Sense of IWOM White Paper Series Topic 1: The role of IWOM in purchase decisions)



Objective & Methodology


                                                                           The research aims to
                                                                           measure the power of
                                                                           IWOM including its
                                                                           impact on sales, the
                                                                           ultimate              key
                                                                           performance        index
                                                                           (KPI) for all brands.
                                                                           Using       the     auto
                                                                           industry in China as
                                                                           object of study, we
                                                                           will also identify those
                                                                           auto     brands      that
                                                                           outperform others in
                                                                           the area of IWOM.
-   CIC defines IWOM as text and multimedia content related to companies,
    products or services shared by netizens, including brands and consumers, via
    online community platforms such as BBS, blogs and video sites. In this
    instance CIC gathered the 133,071,049 consumer comments from 2500 +
    Auto related sites and forums
-   CIC measures positive and negative sentiment by using our customized
    sentiment engine that measures both general sentiment and auto specific
    sentiment
-   For this study CIC tracked the IWOM volume and sentiment of the 42 leading
    auto brands and over 500+ models in 2009
-   Source of 2009 passenger car sales are quoted from China Association Of
    Automobile Manufacturers
-   Thanks must also go to media agency Carat (www.carat.com.cn) for providing
    2009 media spending data, including TV, print, OOH, radio and online media.



IWOM Drives Sales for                    Total Buzz (000)             Positive Buzz (000)                Negtive Buzz (000)


42 Auto Brands in China          2,500                42 Car Models Online Buzz (2009) : Buzz Thousand


                                 2,000

In 2009, the volume of auto 1,500
industry buzz increased
steadily month by month 1,000
despite seasonal activities.     500

By studying monthly sales
                                   0
and monthly online buzz              Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

data of 42 passenger car
models in 2009 (chart 3),                            Chart 2
we found a medium correlation (R2=0.4829) between total buzz and car sales
for 2009. The sales impact of IWOM is more obvious for foreign car brands
(joint venture brands) (R2=0.5961) and cars priced over RMB200k (R2=0.9135).
Chart 3

In addition to looking at correlations between WOM and sales, we also measured
the time lag for an increase in WOM to result in an increase in sales and found a
clear pattern of short term residual effect on some auto brands. Take the
Teane for example, its positive IWOM led the way by one month for positive sales
results (chart 4).


                                    Sales(000)                  Positive Buzz000

                                        天籁Teana- Sales and Online Buzz
                     14                                                                  30

                     12                                                                  25
  Ca r Sa les(000)




                     10
                                                                                         20
                                                                                              B u zz (000)




                     8
                                                                                         15
                     6
                                                                                         10
                     4

                     2                                                                   5

                     0                                                                   0
                          Jan   Feb Mar Apr May Jun       Jul   Aug Sep    Oct     Nov

Chart 4
Another interesting finding is the high correlation (R2=0.5961) between positive
and negative IWOM (chart 5). Those who are active online have both positive
and negative IWOM.

This means that while marketers should listen closely to negative sentiment
happening around their brand they need to focus on engaging netizens which
can both encourage and amplify positive IWOM instead of focusing all their
efforts of subduing negative IWOM which has proved is inevitable.

                                   42 Models- Positive Buzz(000) on Negative Buzz(000)
                         400
                         350
 Negative Buzz(0 0 0 )




                         300
                         250
                         200                                        y = 0.3323x - 11.85
                         150                                            R2 = 0.8883
                         100
                          50
                           0
                               0   200        400       600        800         1,000      1,200
                                                Positive Buzz(0 0 0 )

Chart 5
Foreign, More Expensive Models Show Closer Correlation
Some brands benefited more from buzz and buzz marketing than others (table
1). Ranked among the top five by ‘Revenue Per Buzz’ were many mid to high
price models including Audi A6, VW Passat, Teana, Honda CR-V, and Toyota
Camry. These brands outperform their peers in IWOM ROI.

                              Estimated     Total Buzz       Revenue
Rank      Model               Revenue       Volume By Post   Per Buzz
                              (M)           (000)            (000)

1         A6L                 55,724        306              182

          帕萨特领驭
2         Passat Lingyu       26,356        242              109

3         天籁 Teana            29,436        318              93

4         CR-V                23,818        317              75

5         凯美瑞 Camry           34,886        553              63

6         悦动 Elantra          27,489        447              61

7         卡罗拉 Corolla         24,589        408              60

8         雅阁 Accord           46,002        872              53

9         伊兰特 Elantra         18,095        372              49

10        比亚迪 F3BYD F3        18,107        373              49

Table 1
Recommendations to Marketers




IWOM is an integral part of any brand’s crisis management and Public Relations
scheme. At the same time, it is probably the most efficient platform to collect
consumer feedback and improve service quality. This also includes keeping a
close look at how the brand is talked among your own employees and business
partners.

In addition to monitoring and measuring IWOM data 24/7, marketers need to
take a more open and proactive role in the online community. Open,
non-commercial networking by general public that creates shared culture, by
setting up branded blogs, twitters to express yourself.

Marketers should keep in mind the democratic nature of the Internet, and avoid
taking an autonomy or too promotional-oriented approach.

The best strategy to win is to immerse into the community and become a part of
the consumers’ network.

Last but not the least, in order to ensure that your buzz marketing helps drive
sales, marketers need to focus on product related messages and leverage real
consumers and brand advocates. The ultimate buzz and buzz marketing is all
about consumers talking up their            positive   product   experience   and
recommending to other consumers.



About R3

R3 is a global marketing consultancy with our heart in Asia. We focus on
improving the effectiveness of marketers and their agencies, with the right
efficiency. Founded in 2002, we’ve worked with more than fifty companies on
global, regional and local assignments to drive efficiency and effectiveness. We
have talent based in Beijing, Singapore, Shanghai, Chicago, New York and Delhi.
Our core service offerings include proprietary processes and tools in agency
performance and marketing ROI consulting.



About CIC

As China's first and leading provider of Internet intelligence and insights based
on IWOM (Internet Word of Mouth), CIC provides customized research consulting
services, syndicated reports, as well as technical solutions and platforms to help
companies meet their business and marketing needs. Since coining the term
IWOM in 2004, CIC has pioneered the industry by supporting strategic planning
and innovations across the entire spectrum of communications including brand
reputation, business intelligence, product development, advertising, media,
campaign planning and execution all via an objective, third party perspective.
CIC has built and maintained strong, long term retainer relationships with
multinational agencies and Fortune 500 companies, including Nike, Pepsi, Intel,
L'Oreal Group, BMW, P&G, Unilever and many more.

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Internet word of mouth proven to have impact (CIC and R3)

  • 1. Internet Word of Mouth Proven to Have Impact on Auto Sales in China A joint white paper by CIC and R3 Executive Summary  Independent Research covering over 12 months of China’s automotive sales by model, linked with online word of mouth per model  Data shows correlation between sales and online buzz volume and in several cases with online buzz trend one month ahead of sales trend.  Foreign brands and higher priced car models show stronger correlation  Marketers need to take a more proactive approach to encourage their campaigns to be spread online, With the Internet starting to have an increasingly powerful effect on the relationship between brands and their consumers, marketers are now starting to track and effectively measure what is being said about their brand online and where possible to leverage the power of Internet Word of Mouth (IWOM) to their advantage. Those who master the art are said to boost their return on investment (ROI). This is especially true for China, where marketers need a special weapon to fight against intense competition and a cultural climate of great skepticism and distrust that advertisers face. But to what extent does online buzz actually help marketers’ achieve their bottom line? Studying 12 months data of 42 auto brands in China, R3 and CIC measured the performance of IWOM in terms of its impact on sales. The Art of Measuring WOM WOM, whether online or face to face, allows consumers to communicate with each other, hopefully referring a positive product experience. It also allows brands to connect with consumers, directly or through sharing of other consumer generated content, to highlight product strength and brand value.
  • 2. They are many different sources of IWOM, including BBS and forums, social networks (i.e. KaiXin001, RenRen), Instant Messenger (i.e. MSN, QQ), blogs & micro-blogs, and Q&A and review sites. In addition to measuring quantity of IWOM on these sources, marketers can also look at the quality or the sentiment of IWOM, with new advanced text-mining technology such as those developed by CIC, now being able to help brands identify whether a piece is positive, negative or neutral. Chart 1 - Social network landscape of Xcar 307 forum, Dec 2008, from CIC Syndicated Auto report What’s more interesting about advanced IWOM text mining technology is its capability to help marketers identify in great detail what is being said about brands by their customers on the Internet, and to then even visualize online interactions and help identify who are the influencers (pictured above). Meaning that if marketers now have an in-depth understanding as to what consumers are talking about their brands and where/by who all that talking is going on, marketers can leverage the company’s communication service and R&D resources to address these issues, ensure the target consumers are addressed, and in the process improve marketing ROI. One limitation of WOM measurement is that technology cannot differentiate consumer generated content from advertisers’ commercial messages, however by taking this into consideration it’s still important that marketers realize what consumers encounter when researching about brands or products online.
  • 3. (Source - CIC Making Sense of IWOM White Paper Series Topic 1: The role of IWOM in purchase decisions) Objective & Methodology The research aims to measure the power of IWOM including its impact on sales, the ultimate key performance index (KPI) for all brands. Using the auto industry in China as object of study, we will also identify those auto brands that outperform others in the area of IWOM.
  • 4. - CIC defines IWOM as text and multimedia content related to companies, products or services shared by netizens, including brands and consumers, via online community platforms such as BBS, blogs and video sites. In this instance CIC gathered the 133,071,049 consumer comments from 2500 + Auto related sites and forums - CIC measures positive and negative sentiment by using our customized sentiment engine that measures both general sentiment and auto specific sentiment - For this study CIC tracked the IWOM volume and sentiment of the 42 leading auto brands and over 500+ models in 2009 - Source of 2009 passenger car sales are quoted from China Association Of Automobile Manufacturers - Thanks must also go to media agency Carat (www.carat.com.cn) for providing 2009 media spending data, including TV, print, OOH, radio and online media. IWOM Drives Sales for Total Buzz (000) Positive Buzz (000) Negtive Buzz (000) 42 Auto Brands in China 2,500 42 Car Models Online Buzz (2009) : Buzz Thousand 2,000 In 2009, the volume of auto 1,500 industry buzz increased steadily month by month 1,000 despite seasonal activities. 500 By studying monthly sales 0 and monthly online buzz Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec data of 42 passenger car models in 2009 (chart 3), Chart 2 we found a medium correlation (R2=0.4829) between total buzz and car sales for 2009. The sales impact of IWOM is more obvious for foreign car brands (joint venture brands) (R2=0.5961) and cars priced over RMB200k (R2=0.9135).
  • 5. Chart 3 In addition to looking at correlations between WOM and sales, we also measured the time lag for an increase in WOM to result in an increase in sales and found a clear pattern of short term residual effect on some auto brands. Take the Teane for example, its positive IWOM led the way by one month for positive sales results (chart 4). Sales(000) Positive Buzz000 天籁Teana- Sales and Online Buzz 14 30 12 25 Ca r Sa les(000) 10 20 B u zz (000) 8 15 6 10 4 2 5 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Chart 4
  • 6. Another interesting finding is the high correlation (R2=0.5961) between positive and negative IWOM (chart 5). Those who are active online have both positive and negative IWOM. This means that while marketers should listen closely to negative sentiment happening around their brand they need to focus on engaging netizens which can both encourage and amplify positive IWOM instead of focusing all their efforts of subduing negative IWOM which has proved is inevitable. 42 Models- Positive Buzz(000) on Negative Buzz(000) 400 350 Negative Buzz(0 0 0 ) 300 250 200 y = 0.3323x - 11.85 150 R2 = 0.8883 100 50 0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Positive Buzz(0 0 0 ) Chart 5
  • 7. Foreign, More Expensive Models Show Closer Correlation Some brands benefited more from buzz and buzz marketing than others (table 1). Ranked among the top five by ‘Revenue Per Buzz’ were many mid to high price models including Audi A6, VW Passat, Teana, Honda CR-V, and Toyota Camry. These brands outperform their peers in IWOM ROI. Estimated Total Buzz Revenue Rank Model Revenue Volume By Post Per Buzz (M) (000) (000) 1 A6L 55,724 306 182 帕萨特领驭 2 Passat Lingyu 26,356 242 109 3 天籁 Teana 29,436 318 93 4 CR-V 23,818 317 75 5 凯美瑞 Camry 34,886 553 63 6 悦动 Elantra 27,489 447 61 7 卡罗拉 Corolla 24,589 408 60 8 雅阁 Accord 46,002 872 53 9 伊兰特 Elantra 18,095 372 49 10 比亚迪 F3BYD F3 18,107 373 49 Table 1
  • 8. Recommendations to Marketers IWOM is an integral part of any brand’s crisis management and Public Relations scheme. At the same time, it is probably the most efficient platform to collect consumer feedback and improve service quality. This also includes keeping a close look at how the brand is talked among your own employees and business partners. In addition to monitoring and measuring IWOM data 24/7, marketers need to take a more open and proactive role in the online community. Open, non-commercial networking by general public that creates shared culture, by setting up branded blogs, twitters to express yourself. Marketers should keep in mind the democratic nature of the Internet, and avoid taking an autonomy or too promotional-oriented approach. The best strategy to win is to immerse into the community and become a part of the consumers’ network. Last but not the least, in order to ensure that your buzz marketing helps drive sales, marketers need to focus on product related messages and leverage real consumers and brand advocates. The ultimate buzz and buzz marketing is all
  • 9. about consumers talking up their positive product experience and recommending to other consumers. About R3 R3 is a global marketing consultancy with our heart in Asia. We focus on improving the effectiveness of marketers and their agencies, with the right efficiency. Founded in 2002, we’ve worked with more than fifty companies on global, regional and local assignments to drive efficiency and effectiveness. We have talent based in Beijing, Singapore, Shanghai, Chicago, New York and Delhi. Our core service offerings include proprietary processes and tools in agency performance and marketing ROI consulting. About CIC As China's first and leading provider of Internet intelligence and insights based on IWOM (Internet Word of Mouth), CIC provides customized research consulting services, syndicated reports, as well as technical solutions and platforms to help companies meet their business and marketing needs. Since coining the term IWOM in 2004, CIC has pioneered the industry by supporting strategic planning and innovations across the entire spectrum of communications including brand reputation, business intelligence, product development, advertising, media, campaign planning and execution all via an objective, third party perspective. CIC has built and maintained strong, long term retainer relationships with multinational agencies and Fortune 500 companies, including Nike, Pepsi, Intel, L'Oreal Group, BMW, P&G, Unilever and many more.