1. The Global Futures Project And Virtual Crop Modeling http://www.yannarthusbertrand2.org/ Bernardo Creamer CIAT, May 18, 2011

2. The Challenges Facing Agriculture Price volatility and food scarcity Unprecedented demands on the world’s agricultural systems Rising incomes in the developing countries Unsustainable natural resource degradation Climate change Enhancing the productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems Degradation of agricultural lands Limited space Page 2

3. Hunger

4. Hunger Mileniumgoalsachievement (FAO)

5. Challenge Poverty Hunger Vulnerability Solutions

6. Vulnerability WB: Risk of hungerfor 60 M people

8. Actual

9. Predicted

10. Existence of tecnology?

11. Howmuch do weknow (uncertainty)?

12. Can wedevelopmitigatingtechnologies?

13. Whatstrategies are better?

14. Priorities

16. Decision Analisis Processes Crop Modeling Geographic information Changes in yields Future scenarios Economic analysis Virtual crop Solutions

17. Decision Analysis

18. IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade” Representation of a global competitive agricultural market for water, crops and livestock Global 115 countries 281 food production units 32 agricultural commodities Economic evaluation:IMPACT model

19. 32 IMPACT Commodities (SPAM) Cereals Wheat, Rice, Maize, Other Coarse Grains + Millet, Sorghum Roots & Tubers Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes & Yams, Cassava & Other Roots and Tubers Dryland legumes Chickpea, Pigeonpea, Groundnut Livestock products Beef, Pork, Sheep & Goat, Poultry, Eggs, Milk Fish Eight capture and aquaculture fish commodities plus fish meals and fish oils High-Value Vegetables, (Sub)-Tropical Fruits, Temperate Fruits, Sugar Cane, Sugar Beets and Sweeteners Other Soybeans, Meals, Oils Non-food Cotton, Biofuel products (ethanol, biodiesel)

20. Global Economic Regions (115)

21. Global Basins (126)

22. Global Food Production Units (281 FPUs) Higher river basin spatial resolution planned for better water availability modeling

23. Page 16 Policy drivers Domestic Biofuel Prodn Other Demand Demand Socioeconomic Drivers Feed Food Trade Equilibrium Balance Agric. Imports/ exports Trade policy child malnutrition Price Calorie Availability Irrigation investments Area Female education Clean water access Supply Rural Roads Yield [investments] Ag R&D investments Climate change Environmental driver Key elements of IMPACT model Water usage Water availability drivers

24. Virtual Crop Crop Model Genetic Coefficients Plant Gene

25. Virtual Crop

26. Needforvalidation Challenge: Findfuturescenarios and sitestoconducttrials