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CIAT Asia Team Planning Meeting
19-21 February 2014
Socio-economic and
Agro-development
trends and drivers
Population distribution

Countries by: Population 1st, 2nd, 4th … 10th, 12th, 13th, 20th (Ch, In, Id, Jp, Ph, Vn, Th)
Economy 2nd, 3rd … 10th, 15th, 16th … (Ch, Jp, In, Kp, Id)
Poverty: rates, distribution, inequity
• Almost half the world (over three billion people)
live on less than $2.50 a day

• At least 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a
day
Poverty: rates, distribution, inequity
• Almost half the world (over three billion people)
live on less than $2.50 a day
• At least 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a
day
Poverty: rates, distribution, inequity
2010 Poverty Rates

Population
Poor (<$1.25PPP/day)

Region

Total

(%)

(millions)

(millions)

South Asia

31.0

506.8

1,633.2

Sub-Saharan Africa

48.5

413.7

853.6

East Asia and Pacific

12.5

250.9

2,010.4

Latin America & Caribbean

5.5

32.3

583.9

Middle East & North Africa

2.4

8.0

331.3

Europe and Central Asia

0.7

3.2

477.1

20.6

1215.0

5,889.4

Total
2010 Poverty Rates
India*
India--Rural
India--Urban
China*
China--Rural
China--Urban
Bangladesh
Indonesia*
Indonesia--Rural
Indonesia--Urban
Pakistan
Philippines
Vietnam
Nepal
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Sri Lanka
Timor-Leste
Thailand
Bhutan

Mean
PPP$/mth
60.39
54.96
73.01
147.61
91.14
216.91
51.67
83.33
75.36
90.21
73.39
103.65
91.27
68.06
86.55
71.17
117.66
57.4
220.34
137.82

Population
Poor (<$1.25PPP/day)
%
millions
32.67
400.1
34.28
293.4
28.93
106.6
11.62
155.5
20.57
151.7
0.64
3.8
43.25
64.3
18.06
43.3
17.75
19.7
18.33
23.6
13.47
23.4
18.42
17.2
13.96
12.1
24.82
7.4
14.72
2.1
26.04
1.6
4.11
0.9
34.70
0.4
0.38
0.3
4.42
0.0

Total
millions
1,224.62
856.01
368.61
1,338.30
737.4
600.9
148.69
239.87
111.06
128.81
173.59
93.26
86.94
29.96
14.14
6.2
20.86
1.12
69.12
0.73
HDI
HDI
HDI
Undernourishment trends
Drivers of change
• Asian Tigers (SEA) and Dragons (Ch/In)
• FDI –Forestry, Mining, Hydropower, Agriculture, Industry …
• Employment opportunities
- hit by the Asian Financial Crisis (1997)
- hit by the GFC (2007-8)

• Population growth – slowing in places
• Land grabs – local / regional / global
• Access / Roads / Transport
- GMS major roads
- Feeder roads and local infrastructure
2011
Population
Growth
Rates
in Asia

Countries
Japan:
Korea, South:
Hong Kong:
China:
Korea, North:
Thailand:
Singapore:
Sri Lanka:
Indonesia:
Vietnam:
Burma:
World (Weighted average)
Bhutan:
India:
Bangladesh:
Pakistan:
Malaysia:
Nepal:
Laos:
Cambodia:
Brunei:
Philippines:
East Timor:

2011
-0.28%
0.23%
0.45%
0.49%
0.54%
0.57%
0.82%
0.93%
1.07%
1.08%
1.08%
1.10%
1.20%
1.34%
1.57%
1.57%
1.58%
1.60%
1.68%
1.70%
1.71%
1.90%
1.98%
GMS
Road
System
2015
Countries

Donor

Institutions

1977-79

1980-82

1983-1991

1
9
9
19923

1994

1995

1996

1997 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Cassava/Cassava systems
Cassava support

Core

Cassava breeding

Th

Core/Japan

CIAT

Cassava cropping in Asia

Th, Vn, Ch, Id

Nippon

CIAT

Cassava cropping in Asia

Th, Vn, Ch

Nippon

CIAT

On-farm Use

La, Kh

Nippon

CIAT

On-farm Use

La, Kh, Vn, Mm

Nippon

CIAT

On-farm Use

Kh

Nippon

CIAT

Seeds of Life

Et

ACIAR

CG centers

Cassava Indonesia & Timor

Id, Tp

ACIAR

CIAT

Waxy cassava in Thailand

Th

Th

CIAT

PRDU

LA, Vn, Ch

IFAD

CIAT / CIP

4FGF

La, Kh, Vn

IFAD

CIAT / CIP

IBC

La, Kh, Vn

UFAD/SNV

CIAT/SNV

RTB

Vn, Kh, La

IFAD

ICRISAT / CIAT

Biofuels

Vn, Ch, Co, In, Ph, Ma

IFAD

ICRISAT / CIAT

Pests & Diseases

Th, Vn, Ch, Kh, La, …

EC/IFAD

CIAT

FSP

La, Ph, Vn, Id, Th, Ch

AusAID

CIAT

FSP

La, Ph, Vn, Id, Th, Ch

AusAID

CIAT

FLSP

La

AusAID

CIAT

FSP II

Ph, Vn, Id, Ch, La, Th

ADB

CIAT

LLSP

La, Ph, Vn, Kh, Id, Ch, Th

ADB

CIAT

PPTA

La

ADB

CIAT

CBSLSLP

La

ADB

CIAT

Fodder systems

Et, Vn, Sy

IFAD

ILRI / CIAT / ICARDA

Legumes for pigs

La

ACIAR

CIAT

Cattle in Cambodia

Kh

ACIAR

UNE / CIAT

Cattle in Cambodia II

Kh

ACIAR

UNE / CIAT

Rice & cattle NE Thailand

Th

ACIAR

World Vision / CIAT

Restricted core support

Region

ACIAR

CIAT

Rainfed Southern Laos

La

ACIAR

CSU-UQ-NSWDI-IRRI-CIAT

Pig production & health SPSP

La

ACIAR

CSIRO / CIAT

CLVLP

Kh, La, Vn

IFAD

CIAT

Animal Health Project

La

ACIAR

CSIRO

Extension in Agriculture Project I

La

ACIAR

CSU (CIAT)

Extension in Agriculture Project I

La

ACIAR

CSU (CIAT)

SADU Laos and Vietnam

Vn, La

SDC

CIAT

SADU Laos II

La

SDC

CIAT

SADU Laos III

La

SDC

CIAT

SADU Vietnam

Vn

SDC

CIAT

Fruit marketing N Vn

Vn

ACIAR

CIAT

LFM in the uplands if Vietnam

Vn

Cordaid?

CIAT

JIRCAS

La

JIRCAS

JIRCAS-CIAT

JSA

La

JMAFF

JIRCAS-CIAT

STOAUS

La

Austria

CIAT-BOKU

CC & Land Use

La

GTZ

CIAT

CC & Economic Impact

Th

GTZ

CIAT

PSROI

La, Vn

CC & LUC in GMS

GMS (Ch, La, Mm, Th, Kh, Vn)

CCAFS

CIAT

La

IDRC

CIAT/PRGA

Forages & Livestock

Linking Farmers to Markets

Climate Change & Land Use

CIAT

PRGA
P NRM

CIAT Asia Projects

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

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Lefroy asia and projects

  • 1. CIAT Asia Team Planning Meeting 19-21 February 2014 Socio-economic and Agro-development trends and drivers
  • 2. Population distribution Countries by: Population 1st, 2nd, 4th … 10th, 12th, 13th, 20th (Ch, In, Id, Jp, Ph, Vn, Th) Economy 2nd, 3rd … 10th, 15th, 16th … (Ch, Jp, In, Kp, Id)
  • 3. Poverty: rates, distribution, inequity • Almost half the world (over three billion people) live on less than $2.50 a day • At least 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a day
  • 4. Poverty: rates, distribution, inequity • Almost half the world (over three billion people) live on less than $2.50 a day • At least 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a day
  • 5. Poverty: rates, distribution, inequity 2010 Poverty Rates Population Poor (<$1.25PPP/day) Region Total (%) (millions) (millions) South Asia 31.0 506.8 1,633.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 48.5 413.7 853.6 East Asia and Pacific 12.5 250.9 2,010.4 Latin America & Caribbean 5.5 32.3 583.9 Middle East & North Africa 2.4 8.0 331.3 Europe and Central Asia 0.7 3.2 477.1 20.6 1215.0 5,889.4 Total
  • 6. 2010 Poverty Rates India* India--Rural India--Urban China* China--Rural China--Urban Bangladesh Indonesia* Indonesia--Rural Indonesia--Urban Pakistan Philippines Vietnam Nepal Cambodia Lao PDR Sri Lanka Timor-Leste Thailand Bhutan Mean PPP$/mth 60.39 54.96 73.01 147.61 91.14 216.91 51.67 83.33 75.36 90.21 73.39 103.65 91.27 68.06 86.55 71.17 117.66 57.4 220.34 137.82 Population Poor (<$1.25PPP/day) % millions 32.67 400.1 34.28 293.4 28.93 106.6 11.62 155.5 20.57 151.7 0.64 3.8 43.25 64.3 18.06 43.3 17.75 19.7 18.33 23.6 13.47 23.4 18.42 17.2 13.96 12.1 24.82 7.4 14.72 2.1 26.04 1.6 4.11 0.9 34.70 0.4 0.38 0.3 4.42 0.0 Total millions 1,224.62 856.01 368.61 1,338.30 737.4 600.9 148.69 239.87 111.06 128.81 173.59 93.26 86.94 29.96 14.14 6.2 20.86 1.12 69.12 0.73
  • 7. HDI
  • 8. HDI
  • 9. HDI
  • 11. Drivers of change • Asian Tigers (SEA) and Dragons (Ch/In) • FDI –Forestry, Mining, Hydropower, Agriculture, Industry … • Employment opportunities - hit by the Asian Financial Crisis (1997) - hit by the GFC (2007-8) • Population growth – slowing in places • Land grabs – local / regional / global • Access / Roads / Transport - GMS major roads - Feeder roads and local infrastructure
  • 12. 2011 Population Growth Rates in Asia Countries Japan: Korea, South: Hong Kong: China: Korea, North: Thailand: Singapore: Sri Lanka: Indonesia: Vietnam: Burma: World (Weighted average) Bhutan: India: Bangladesh: Pakistan: Malaysia: Nepal: Laos: Cambodia: Brunei: Philippines: East Timor: 2011 -0.28% 0.23% 0.45% 0.49% 0.54% 0.57% 0.82% 0.93% 1.07% 1.08% 1.08% 1.10% 1.20% 1.34% 1.57% 1.57% 1.58% 1.60% 1.68% 1.70% 1.71% 1.90% 1.98%
  • 14.
  • 15. Countries Donor Institutions 1977-79 1980-82 1983-1991 1 9 9 19923 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Cassava/Cassava systems Cassava support Core Cassava breeding Th Core/Japan CIAT Cassava cropping in Asia Th, Vn, Ch, Id Nippon CIAT Cassava cropping in Asia Th, Vn, Ch Nippon CIAT On-farm Use La, Kh Nippon CIAT On-farm Use La, Kh, Vn, Mm Nippon CIAT On-farm Use Kh Nippon CIAT Seeds of Life Et ACIAR CG centers Cassava Indonesia & Timor Id, Tp ACIAR CIAT Waxy cassava in Thailand Th Th CIAT PRDU LA, Vn, Ch IFAD CIAT / CIP 4FGF La, Kh, Vn IFAD CIAT / CIP IBC La, Kh, Vn UFAD/SNV CIAT/SNV RTB Vn, Kh, La IFAD ICRISAT / CIAT Biofuels Vn, Ch, Co, In, Ph, Ma IFAD ICRISAT / CIAT Pests & Diseases Th, Vn, Ch, Kh, La, … EC/IFAD CIAT FSP La, Ph, Vn, Id, Th, Ch AusAID CIAT FSP La, Ph, Vn, Id, Th, Ch AusAID CIAT FLSP La AusAID CIAT FSP II Ph, Vn, Id, Ch, La, Th ADB CIAT LLSP La, Ph, Vn, Kh, Id, Ch, Th ADB CIAT PPTA La ADB CIAT CBSLSLP La ADB CIAT Fodder systems Et, Vn, Sy IFAD ILRI / CIAT / ICARDA Legumes for pigs La ACIAR CIAT Cattle in Cambodia Kh ACIAR UNE / CIAT Cattle in Cambodia II Kh ACIAR UNE / CIAT Rice & cattle NE Thailand Th ACIAR World Vision / CIAT Restricted core support Region ACIAR CIAT Rainfed Southern Laos La ACIAR CSU-UQ-NSWDI-IRRI-CIAT Pig production & health SPSP La ACIAR CSIRO / CIAT CLVLP Kh, La, Vn IFAD CIAT Animal Health Project La ACIAR CSIRO Extension in Agriculture Project I La ACIAR CSU (CIAT) Extension in Agriculture Project I La ACIAR CSU (CIAT) SADU Laos and Vietnam Vn, La SDC CIAT SADU Laos II La SDC CIAT SADU Laos III La SDC CIAT SADU Vietnam Vn SDC CIAT Fruit marketing N Vn Vn ACIAR CIAT LFM in the uplands if Vietnam Vn Cordaid? CIAT JIRCAS La JIRCAS JIRCAS-CIAT JSA La JMAFF JIRCAS-CIAT STOAUS La Austria CIAT-BOKU CC & Land Use La GTZ CIAT CC & Economic Impact Th GTZ CIAT PSROI La, Vn CC & LUC in GMS GMS (Ch, La, Mm, Th, Kh, Vn) CCAFS CIAT La IDRC CIAT/PRGA Forages & Livestock Linking Farmers to Markets Climate Change & Land Use CIAT PRGA P NRM CIAT Asia Projects 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015