1. Latin America: The World’s Future
Rice Bowl?
i l?
R. S.
R S Zeigler
Director General
International Rice Research Institute

2. What is rice?
• Perhaps the oldest
p
domesticated crop
– Tremendously diverse
• More than just food
– Though it is the
primary staple for
billions (~ 50% of
world, > 70% of poor)
• And it grows under
monsoon conditions
where no other major
crops can grow

3. Global Ri A
Gl b l Rice Area and Production
d P d ti
Production in metric tons per cell
1,000
1 000 2,500
2 500 5,000
5 000 10,000
10 000 25,000
25 000 50,000
50 000
Cells are approximately 100 x 100 hectares at the equator
Source: You, Wood-Sichra and Wood, 2009

4. INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Los Baños, Philippines
Mission:
Reduce poverty and h
R d t d hunger
Improve the health of rice
farmers and consumers
f d
Ensure environmental
sustainability
Through research
partnerships Home of the Green Revolution
Established 1960
www.irri.org

5. Rice is typically grown by small family
farm enterprises (<2 ha)
Myanmar

6. If we want to do something about poverty, it is clear
that we must invest in rice
Rice Consumption Poverty
Annual consumption per capita Each dot represents 250,000 people
<25kg 25‐50 50‐75 75‐100 >100kg living on less than $1.25 a day, 2005
90% of the world’s rice is produced and consumed in Asia
Over 70% of the world’s poor are in Asia

7. The Green Revolution: A new plant
architecture for 2 – 4 yield
hit t f 4x i ld
• 1960
1960s
– yields ~1.5
t/ha
– widespread
famines
predicted
•T d
Today
– yields > 4
t/ha Semi dwarf
S i-d f Traditional
T diti l
– economic
growth

8. Peter Jennings: Creator of the
foundation of modern rice varieties
f d ti f d i i ti
Brought these to Latin America…revolutionized rice production

9. 6.0
60 Diversification
Annual rate of yield increase: Reduced tillage
Water-saving irrigation
52.4 kg grain/ha Mechanized tillage SSNM
Direct seeding
5.0 (R2=0.982) Herbicides
Post-harvest losses
Community IPM
IPM Ecosystem services
World rice yie (t/ha)
More N & P fertilizer CC adaptation/mitigation
Decline in manure
and green manure
4.0 Mechanized harvest
Irrigation
eld
2-3 crops/year Hybrids
N f tili
fertilizer Yield
Yi ld potential (?)
i l
Pesticides Precision breeding:
3.0 Semi-dwarf,
- abiotic stresses
- biotic stresses
short duration MV Abiotic stresses
- adaptation to RCT
Wide hybridization
- biofortification
New Plant Type
yp
Grain quality
quality,
d
- grain quality
Isogenic lines/MAS
2.0 Hybrid rice
Floodprone rice
Gene pyramiding
Yield potential Resistance to Rainfed rice
Dwarfism insects & diseases
Short duration Adverse soil tolerance
1.0
10 Grain dormancy
IR8 IR26 IR36 IR64 IR72 PSBRc18 NSIC Rc158
0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

10. Green Revolution Slows
Global Rice Yield (1961 2010)
(1961-2010)
Average yield (t ha-1) Average yearly increase over
previous 10 years (kg ha-1)
5.0 200
4.0 160
3.0 120
2.0 80
1.0 40
0.0 0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Year
© WPQ

11. Global rice production increases
Where Will the World’s Rice
needed toCome From?
meet demand by 2035
Million tons milled rice
600
Additional rice needed:
550 114 million tons by 2035
500
450
400
2010 global rice production
350
300
93
01
03
05
13
23
25
33
91
95
97
99
07
09
11
15
17
19
21
27
29
31
35
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Asia Africa Americas Rest of world

12. Where Will the World’s Rice Come
From?
F ?
• Ideally from increasing productivity on
y gp y
existing rice lands, mostly in Asia
• BUT, in Asia:
– Land is moving out of rice
– Labor is moving out of rice
– Water is moving out of rice
• Major changes in production practices
and increases in efficiency Just to stay
y y
where we are
• Significant new rice lands may be
needed
d d

13. To Make Matters Worse: Climate Change
Effects on Rice Production Hit Asia Hard

14. Impact of Cyclone Nargis
in Burma (May 08)
Irrawaddy Delta
Sea – Level Rise
>60% of Global
Increase in Rice
Before Nargis Production in the
last 30 years
came from Delta
countries of Asia
After Nargis

15. Where Will This Rice Come From?
Crop
C op Land in Use and Total Suitable Land
S itable
Majority of suitable land unavailable or locked up in other uses
45%: forest
12%: Protected area
3%: human settlements
The remaining land may have problems such as low soil fertility,
high soil toxicity, etc.
Source: World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030, FAO
http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y3557E/y3557e08.htm#
TopofPage

16. Rice ecosystems in Each dot represents
Latin America 5,000 hectares of rice
Irrigated fields
Rainfed, flooded fields
Rainfed, non flooded fields
< 5% of global
rice production
Source: Hijmans, 2008

17. 2010
2000
1990
1980 Trends in rice area:
1980 - 2010
Over the last 30 years
the rice area in Brazil
has reduced from
6.1m t 2 9 hectares,
6 1 to 2.9m h t
while in the rest of LAC
the rice area has
increased from 1.9m
to 2.8m hectares
t 28 h t
Rice area in hectares Harvested area ('000 ha) 1980-2010
< 50,000 9,000
Brazil Rest of Latin America
8,000
50,000 100,000
50 000 – 100 000 7,000
7 000
100,000 – 200,000
6,000
5,000
200,000 – 500,000 4,000
3,000
> 500 000
500,000 2,000
1,000
-
Source: USDA, 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

18. LAC Rice Consumption vs
Population (1990=100)
P l ti (1990 100)
Index of Population and Consumption (1990=100)
160
140
120
Rising significance of Rice in
100
LAC Food Basket
80
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Consumption Population

19. Can LAC Become the Next Rice Bowl?
• Bi
Biggest advantage:
t d t
– Endowed with plenty of land and water.
• Bottleneck
– Global market is small and unstable.
– As it stands right now, LAC rice is not competitive in
the export market.
• Although subsidies in many rice growing countries
make it even look worse
– Inadequate infrastructure
• What Needs to Happen?
– LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000 per
hectare and improve productivity to at least 7
tonnes/ha to be able to compete in the global market
(Calvert et al.)
– A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice
trade.

20. From Major LAC Rice – Potential
Countries Requires…
C t i R i
• Long term policy commitment to
permanent expansion of rice sector
• Strategic vision for the development of
g p
potential rice producing lands
– Strategic assessments of relative investments
in new irrigated and savanna/cerrado lands
• Long term commitment to research for
sustainable growth in the rice sector
t i bl th i th i t
– A science – based second Green Revolution
• Stable policies for long term
competitiveness

21. From the Global Community…
• Even handed subsidies and incentive
policies
• Mechanism to deal with trade
disruptions and protectionist practices
• Access to real – time information on
global production and trade
• A rice futures market and exchange?

22. Science – Based New Green
e o ut o
Revolution?
• Tap the revolutions in genetics, molecular
biology and plant physiology
• Link soils biology and chemistry to better
understand and manipulate sustainable
nutrient supply
ti t l
• Exploit the explosion of computation capacity
and remote sensing to model systems and link
process at scales from the cellular through
ecosystems and regions
• Proactively link the political and social
dimensions of agriculture to technology
p
development

23. “The majority view, contending that more
productive varieties were needed, led to
massive investment during the past 25
i i t t d i th t
years in biotechnology and genetics and
under-investment in crop management ”
management.
Rice Today, April-June 2007

24. What happened after the Green
Revolution of the 1970s?
My bet where yields would be
With no new varieties
After a doubling of yields, no major gains since the early 1980s
HOWEVER, that does not mean that advances were not made:
Grain quality, growth duration, disease and insect resistance…
E. Pulver

25. Latin American Fund for Irrigated Rice
(FLAR)
South South platfo m
So th – So th platform that seeks synergy in rice R & E
s ne g ice
Established in 1995

26. Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil
9032 Farms
1.1 million ha
FRONTEIRA
OESTE
1.084 Farm
303.920 ha DEPRESSÃO
DEPRESSÃO PLANÍCIE
PLANÍCIE
CENTRAL COSTEIRA
INTERNA
3.375 Farm
158.445 ha
158 445 ha
1.474 Farm
CAMPANHA 129.155ha PLANÍCIE
COSTEIRA
COSTEIRA
1.127 Farm EXTERNA
166.060 ha 1.371 Farm
ZONA 141.206 ha
SUL
601 Farm
177.588 ha

27. Rio Grande do Sul 2000 status
Date of planting – 50% in Dec.
Plant population – 150 – 200 kg seed/ha
Pest/Disease
95% insecticide / herbicide
2 applications of insecticides
Use of furadan widespread, environmental
risk
3 applications of fungicides, preventative
<100 kg N/ha, 100% in water, AE 15 kg grain/kg N
g gg g
Water management – 50% after 30 days
Average yield = 5.2 t/ha
Yield growth 25 kg/ha/yr = 40 years for 1 t/ha

28. Precision Management Practices in
Rio Grande do Sul
1. Plant early to maximize yield potential
– Choose right variety; land preparation after harvest
2. Reduce seed rate to 70-80 kg/ha
3. Preventive pest management
– Seed coating (insecticide fungicide); fungicide (PI-F)
(insecticide, (PI F)
4. Preventive and early weed control:
– Pure seed; Clearfield varieties, crop rotation
– Herbicide at V3-V4
5. Balanced nutrition with high NUE
– Basal NPK placed with seed (2” x 2”)
– High N dose at V3-V4 on dry soil (pre-flood)
– Topdress N at PI (airplane)
6. Irrigate early
– Irrigate at V3-V4 and keep flooded
Harvest and recycle water

29. 2009
2T/ha = 80 yrs!

30. Average cost of production
g p
33,48 33,00 Custo unitário (R$/saco 50kg)
35,00
30,91
- 21,8%
21 8%
30,00
26,64 26,19
24,12
25,00
20,00
,
15,00
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz

31. Technically Possible for Latin
America to be Competitive
A i t b C titi
• Technology is already present to raise
yields and reduce costs
• New science is available that will permit
p
further increases in yield potential and
actual yield in the field

32. Is There the Political Will?
A Look at Trends Over the Last
Several Decades Suggests Not

33. Trend in Agricultural R&D Expenditures in Developing Countries, 1981-2006
LAC
Massive investments
In Asia
Source: Public Agricultural Research in Latin America and the Caribbean by G.
Stads and N. M. Beintema

34. Irrigation Investment in LAC
g
1962-95
(IDB+WB))
1995-09 (WB only)
¿!
!
Source: Irrigation and Water Resources in Latin
America and the Caribbean: Challenges and
Strategies by Ringer, Rosegrant and Paisner
Source: www.worldbank.org

35. Policies & Markets
Can A Major Shift in Trade of a
Major Crop Happen?
It Has Before…

36. Transformation of the Global
Soybean M k t
S b Market
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
70/71 73/74 76/77 79/80 82/83 85/86 88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07
United St t
U it d States Brazil
B il Argentina
A ti Rest f the
R t of th world
ld
Data Source: USDA

37. Emergence of Chinese Dependence on
g p
Foreign Soybeans Was a Driver for Change
000 MT
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
70/71 74/75 78/79 82/83 86/87 90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07
Domestic consumption Imports
Data Source: USDA

38. LAC Becoming the Next Rice Bowl!
• Bi
Biggest advantage:
t d t
– Endowed with plenty of land and water.
• Bottleneck
– Global market is too small and unstable.
– As it stands right now, LAC rice is not
competitive in the export market.
• Although subsidies in many rice growing
countries make it even look worse
– Inadequate infrastructure
• What Needs to Happen?
– LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000
per hectare and improve productivity to at
least 7 tons/ha to be able to compete in the
global market (Calvert et al.)
– A stable global market and minimal
distortions in rice trade.

39. Human capacity will have to be rebuilt

40. In Summary…
• We need productivity growth but that requires research,
development, dissemination
• Global food security depends on sustaining irrigated rice
systems and probably opening new land
• Lessons from the Green Revolution: it DOES work
• The requirements for success are in place
• Commitments to
the next generation
of scientists
• Latin America can &
must play a key role

41. Thank you
“Since the way to feed the world is not to bring more land under
cultivation, but to increase yields, science is crucial.”
The Economist
“The Silent Tsunami”
19 April 2008

42. Help us fill the world’s rice bowls
world s
Come join us!
http://irri.org/JoinUs
htt //i i /J i U