1. The Global Context: Lessons
And Update From The US And
Abroad
October 30, 2012
Michael P. Walsh
International Consultant
Founding Chairman, International
Council on Clean Transportation
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4. Particulate Emissions By Road
Vehicle Type
Base Case
Million Metric Tons
2.5
2
MC
1.5 HDT
MDGT
MDT
1 LDDV
LDGV
0.5
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

5. Health effects of fine particles
• Breathing fine particles (PM (PM2.5)
)2.5
causes adverse effects on the
cardiovascular and respiratory
systems
• Ambient (outdoor) PM2.5
exposures are linked to
– Premature death
– Heart attacks
– Strokes
– Hospital and emergency room
visits
– Acute and chronic bronchitis
– Asthma-related effects
– PM2.5 may also be associated
with infant mortality, low birth
weight, and cancer
5

6. BC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution
• Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture
known as particulate matter (PM)
– Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM
– Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and
biomass, and is a major component of “soot”
– Mainly found in the fine particle (PM2.5) fraction, which is most
strongly linked to adverse health effects
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7. Diesel Vehicles and Engines are Ideal
Candidates for Black Carbon Control
• Very high ratio of Black
Carbon to Organic
Carbon
• Ubiquitous
• Control Technology
Exists
• Substantial Health Co-
Benefits

8. Technology Now Exists To Clean Vehicles
U.S. and Europe Heavy-Duty Engine
Transient Cycle Emission Standards
g/kWh 3.50
Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 100
4 3.0
3.0
3.5
3 2.00
2.5
1.50
2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.5
0.65
0.40
0.26
1
0.5
0
Euro IV Euro V Euro VI U.S. 2007 U.S. 2010 U.S. 2010
2005 2008 2013 (max (std.)
NOx)
Euro VI includes particle number limit

10. Forecast: Transportation Will Continue To Be A Major
Energy Consumer Going Forward Without Strong Action
• The transportation sector consumes the majority of liquid fuels
• The transportation sector is expected to grow in its consumption of liquid
fuels, as well as its share of total consumption
Data from:
US Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011.
[Report number DOE/EIA-0484(2011)]. – Reference Case
Available online: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/

11. Improving Fuel Efficiency/GHG
Emissions Optimize
driver Improve
Reduce engine
vehicle Improve vehicle and trailer aerodynamics behavior
efficiency
weight
Reduce Improve Reduce
rolling drivetrain auxiliary
resistance efficiency loads
Slide 11

12. US Technology Assessment
National Academy of Sciences Report (March 2010) found 35 – 50%
improvement could be achieved in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe
National Academy of Sciences (2010) FIGURE S-1 Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for
Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus
(Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). Also, for each vehicle class, the fuel consumption benefit of the
Slide 12combined technology packages is calculated as follows: % FCpackage = 1 – (1 - %FCtech 1)(1 - %FCtech2)(1 - %FCtech N) where
%FCtech x is the percent benefit of an individual technology. SOURCE: TIAX (2009) ES-4.

13. Global Regulatory Landscape For Heavy Duty
Fuel Economy/GHG Controls
Country/R Regulation
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
egion Type
Regulation implemented starting MY
Fuel
Japan 2015
economy
United GHG/Fuel Standard Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 (
Final rule
States efficiency proposal mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016)
GHG/Fuel Standard
Canada Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014
efficiency proposal
Test Industry Regulation implemented starting MY
Fuel Standard
China procedure standard Final rule 2015
consumption proposal
finalized proposal
Test
European Mandatory efficiency reporting and
GHG Technical studies procedure
Union regulatory development
finalized
Additional reqs. for
End-user
Requirements for tractors and Additional reqs. for existing tractors existing trailers and
California purchase
trailers (MY 2011+) and trailers (<MY 2010) reefers (<MY 2010)
requirements
13

14. Total Heavy-duty Vehicle CO2
Emissions
7.0
Japan, Canada, EU Adopted
US 2014-2018 HDV
6.0 China Phase I HDV
China Phase II HDV
5.0 Mexico 2015-2018 HDV
Gt CO2e
Vehicle Potential (3.5% APR)
Activity Potential
4.0 Global HDV Emissions
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

15. Advanced Critical
Technologies in the Longer Term

16. US Fuel Cell Bus Projects
Source: http://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/proj_fc_bus_eval.html

17. Application: Buses
BC Transit: Fuel Cell Bus Fleet
Fleet of 20 hydrogen fuel cell buses in Whistler,
BC.

18. Transit Agencies in CA Operating ZBuses
SF Muni: ~330 electric trolley
buses in service
AC Transit: 3 fuel cell buses in
service since March 2006, will lead
Zero Emission Bay Area (ZEBA)
demonstration of 12 next-generation
fuel cell buses
Santa Clara VTA and Samtrans: 3 fuel
cell buses operated between February
2005 and December 2009
Foothill Transit: battery elec. Ecoliner
Burbank Bus: recently put a plug-in
fuel cell bus into service
SunLine Transit: H2 buses in service
since 2005. 3 ZBuses operating

19. The HyRoad: AC Transit’s Hydrogen Fuel
Cell Program
 2nd largest transit agency in
the Bay Area
 940 km2 service area
 69 million riders annually
 Has been developing fuel cell demonstration program since 2000
 3 buses phased into service starting in March 2006
 On-site maintenance, 2 fueling stations online
 Ongoing outside evaluation by National Renewable Energy Lab
 Public education and community outreach
 Educational curriculum for middle and high schools
 FC buses designed to be Mobile Learning Centers

20. The HyRoad: Program Details
 3 Van Hool buses, UTC fuel cell, ISE hybrid-electric drive system
 Model year 2005
 Fuel storage: 50 kg of hydrogen  400-480 km range
 Cumulative mileage: more than 395,000 km
 More than 623,000 passengers served
 65% better fuel economy than diesels (8,200 lb handicap)
 Chevron hydrogen fueling station opened in November 2005
 Natural gas steam reformer generates 150 kg/day
 Two new stations

21. Zero-emission Freight Technologies:
Summary Of Ongoing Ce-delft/DLR Project
• Technologies with potential for zero on-road emissions
– Example projects:
• Hytruck (NL); Smith (UK); Gemco e-truck; Zerotruck; eHighway
(Siemens); Daimler; in-road charging, etc
– Concepts:
• Hybrid electric delivery trucks
• Battery electric technology for trucks
• On-road charging technologies
• Hydrogen fuel cell technology
– Key questions:
• Feasibility
• Cost
• Infrastructure
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22. Questions?
Questions?
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