1. Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

2. Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity Roles and times Emergent practices and patterns

3. Who am I? NITLE senior fellow Social media mainline Future studies

4. Today’s plan GamifiedReality The Long Great Recession Past Peak Oil WorldBoard

5. Caveats are mandatory Each scenario can be intertwingled Narrative and/or complexity Not the only futures: climate change, boom time, new age of terror

6. I: Gamified Reality

7. Gaming extends throughout everyday life:…literally…practically…conceptually

9. Very explicitly about behavior modification

10. Imperial gamification

11. Large simulations are normal (political and mundane)

14. II: The Long Great Recession

15. Federal funding continues

17. Turning Japan in the 1990s

18. Stagnation and decline

19. Decay sets in, grows

20. Chronic popular discontent Media battles

23. III: Past Peak Oil

26. “’By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,’ says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.”

27. Nightmare scenario It gets worse: No full replacements Population and demand grow Costs keep growing Oil is used for: Transportation Food fertilizer Medicines Plastics

28. Some checks New Saudi Arabias Miracle science Global recession Climate change disasters

29. Shift to any alternatives

30. Hoarding and panics

31. Security state intensifies

32. Walled gardens proliferate

33. Military adventures attract

34. Infrastructure breaks down

36. IV: WorldBoard

37. World of sensor nets

43. Back to 2010

44. Back to 2010

45. NITLE http://nitle.org Techne http://blogs.nitle.org/ NITLE prediction markets game http://markets.nitle.org/ Bryan on Twitter http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander