2. Three ways to model futures
1. Normative: desired future built
on common ideals
2. Extrapolating: probable future
built on trends
3. Scenarios: possible futures built
on ideals, trends & uncertainties
3. What you can’t predict is more
powerful…
Gamechangers Trends
Black Swans Megatrends
Driving
forces
Critical
uncertainties
Scale, complexity and power
6. Enlightenment
Narrative of progress
Technical solutions
Science as knowable
Ecology as non-
human topic
Understanding how
things are
Celebrating universe
& all its contents as a
wonder beyond us
Engagement
Questioning narratives
Social & creative solutions
Science as paradoxical
Ecology as key to thriving
places & society
Influencing how things are
to arrest catastrophic
disruption
Seeing ourselves as
intimately connected to
everything else
My key point is that there are many forces – mostly critical uncertainties – in the futureSo if we are to imagine a new kind of – science centre, or anything, we have to Consider how to think about the future. Look at what are the most powerful influencing factorsAnd then how the critical situation offers opportunities for us to reshape science itself, science education and science centres
Gamechangers aid progress. A BS can radically disrupt all megatrends.
Critical uncertainties are becoming immeasurably more significant than trends. VUCA. By far the biggest factors will be environmental – the Earth is approaching a critical state shift in 2 or 3 decades, with growing disruption until then. Yes, we can be excited about technology e.g. the real time global map that helps us see storms. The cause of this disruption is technology that has powered a linear extractive economy, and an addiction to fossil fuels.
Summarising the context of shifts in thinking about science and learning
Future of science
RichardGiblett Mycelium
http://globaia.org/themes/ecosphere/This kind of literacy involves understanding context of the biosphere, which most basic education doesn’t address. We must conquer our aphasia regarding earth systems and their interaction.
Metadesigners
Zayed National Museum Abu Dhabi, Foster & partners
Sensescapes: Interactive display that creates art in response to art history movements (art nouveau, art deco etc) in the museum. The Grassi Museum of Applied Arts in Leipzig, http://vimeo.com/51296004
To finish with a few thoughts then on the future of science centres, want to go back to the first
Ethics
Numen – Croatian/Austrian collective created inflatable structure with internal strings. Resilience games
