Presentation for American Meteorological Society Severe Local Storm Conference (Madison, WI)

1. Tornadoes in Europe
Risk and vulnerability assessment
Bogdan Antonescu*
David M. Schultz
Geraint Vaughan
Kelsey Mulder
University of Manchester, UK
*AXA Research Fund

2. Deadly European tornadoes 1091–2013
people
per year
(2004–2013)

3. How many tornadoes occur
each year in Europe?
What is the spatial distribution
of these tornadoes?

4. European Severe Weather Database
tornadoes reported
between 1800–2013
over Europe with QC0+

5. Tornadoes in Europe

6. Tornadoes in Europe
before 1939

7. tornadoes were reported in Europe
between 1800–2013 6258
Europe
France Germany
tornado reports
% from the total number of tornado reports

8. tornado reports
2338
tornadoes were reported
in Europe between 2004–2013

10. Nomenclature of
Territorial Units for
Statistics (NUTS)

12. Bayesian hierarchical models approach

13. 푛푘 |푁푘 , 푝푘 휃 ∼ 퐵푖푛표푚푖푎푙 푁푘, 푝푘
푁푘 |휆 ∼ 푃표푖푠푠표푛 휆푎푘
푝푘 휃 = 푒푥푝 −휃/푥푘

14. 푝 휃, 휆, 푁1, … , 푁퐾|푛1, … , 푛퐾
∝
퐾
푘=1
푝 푛푘 |푁푘, 휃 푝 푁푘 |휆 푝 휃 푝 휆
푒푥푝 휃 ~푁 휇, 휎2 ~N 0.5, 10000
휆~ 푔푎푚푚푎 푞, 푟 ~푔푎푚푚푎(0.001, 0.001)

16. ERA Interim
2004–2013
0.75ox0.75o
1200 UTC
35 levels
NCAR/NCEP reanalysis
1997–1999
1.915ox1.875o
1800 UTC
28 levels
day with favorable tornado parameters (nT)
using the thresholds from Brooks et al. (2003)
for CAPE, LCL, lapse rate, shear

18. ERA Interim
2004–2013
0.75ox0.75o
1200 UTC
35 levels
NCAR/NCEP reanalysis
1997–1999
1.915ox1.875o
1800 UTC
28 levels
day with favorable tornado parameters (nT)
using the thresholds from Brooks et al. (2003)
for CAPE, LCL, lapse rate, shear
Explanatory model log 휆 = 훼0 + 훼1푛