1. Ballyhoura Rural Development ConferenceBallyhoura Rural Development Conference
11 – 12 November 201011 – 12 November 2010
The Global Food Landscape in 2031 andThe Global Food Landscape in 2031 and
Opportunities for BallyhouraOpportunities for Ballyhoura
Presentation byPresentation by
Professor Gerry BoyleProfessor Gerry Boyle
Director of TeagascDirector of Teagasc

2. OutlineOutline
 Factors impacting on the Global FoodFactors impacting on the Global Food
LandscapeLandscape
 Opportunities for the Irish Agri-food SectorOpportunities for the Irish Agri-food Sector
 The Agri-Food Sector in Ballyhoura andThe Agri-Food Sector in Ballyhoura and
OpportunitiesOpportunities
 ‘‘Middle Agriculture’ modelMiddle Agriculture’ model

3. World PopulationWorld Population
World PopulationWorld Population
Growth :Growth :
6.7bn to6.7bn to
8.3bn in8.3bn in
20302030

4. Income GrowthIncome Growth
Source: Mensbrugghe, et al (2009)Source: Mensbrugghe, et al (2009)
Income GrowthIncome Growth
Average 2.9% per annum toAverage 2.9% per annum to
2050; 5.2% for developing2050; 5.2% for developing
countriescountries

5. Changing Dietary PatternsChanging Dietary Patterns
Urbanisation and affluence lead toUrbanisation and affluence lead to
changing diets: more meat, dairychanging diets: more meat, dairy
products and value-added foodsproducts and value-added foods

6. Opportunities for Irish Agri-FoodOpportunities for Irish Agri-Food
SectorSector
 Strong growth in agriculture projected to 2050Strong growth in agriculture projected to 2050
 Positive outlook for prices in the medium term, althoughPositive outlook for prices in the medium term, although
increasing volatilityincreasing volatility
 Expected high global demand for dairy products andExpected high global demand for dairy products and
rising shortfall in EU beef suppliesrising shortfall in EU beef supplies
 Developed country markets will continue to provideDeveloped country markets will continue to provide
premium outlets for Irish exportspremium outlets for Irish exports
 Consumers in developed country markets willConsumers in developed country markets will
increasingly seek out foods with credible, health,increasingly seek out foods with credible, health,
wellness and sustainability attributeswellness and sustainability attributes
 Consumers desire to buy local and to know origins ofConsumers desire to buy local and to know origins of
foodfood

7. Food Harvest 2020Food Harvest 2020
 SummarySummary

8. Food Harvest 2020Food Harvest 2020
 The Report sets out a strategy for theThe Report sets out a strategy for the
medium-termmedium-term
 It identifies the key actions for an export-It identifies the key actions for an export-
led recovery and a smart food economyled recovery and a smart food economy
 Vision - the delivery of high quality, safeVision - the delivery of high quality, safe
and naturally based produceand naturally based produce
 Focus is on SMART and GREEN growthFocus is on SMART and GREEN growth
 Recognition of the role of artisan and localRecognition of the role of artisan and local
food productionfood production

9. Food Harvest 2020-Local FoodFood Harvest 2020-Local Food
 Promote sustainable and locally embedded foodPromote sustainable and locally embedded food
procurement policies and systemsprocurement policies and systems
 Promote and broaden the opportunities for consumersPromote and broaden the opportunities for consumers
and visiting tourists to purchase local food, includingand visiting tourists to purchase local food, including
local marketslocal markets
 Conserve and promote distinctive local food traditions atConserve and promote distinctive local food traditions at
EU level and with bodies such as the Taste Council andEU level and with bodies such as the Taste Council and
Slow FoodSlow Food
 Explore possibilities for mentoring by larger companiesExplore possibilities for mentoring by larger companies
 An “integrated agri-food-tourism strategy has theAn “integrated agri-food-tourism strategy has the
potential to serve a growing demographic of touristspotential to serve a growing demographic of tourists
interested in authentic, culinary experiences from foodinterested in authentic, culinary experiences from food
trails to cookery courses.”trails to cookery courses.”

10. Key Consumer Trends 2012Key Consumer Trends 2012

11. Opportunities for local foodOpportunities for local food
 ValueValuess-led development as opposed-led development as opposed
to …to …
 Value-led developmentValue-led development

12. Artisan and Speciality Food SectorArtisan and Speciality Food Sector
in Irelandin Ireland
 Growing consumer demand for speciality food productsGrowing consumer demand for speciality food products
 Desire for local produceDesire for local produce
 Comprises over 400 businesses; employs about 3000;Comprises over 400 businesses; employs about 3000;
estimated output value ofestimated output value of €475 m.€475 m.
 Growing at 10% annuallyGrowing at 10% annually

13. BallyhouraBallyhoura
 Ballyhoura – at the heart of the Golden ValeBallyhoura – at the heart of the Golden Vale
 Strong agricultural sector and thriving foodStrong agricultural sector and thriving food
heritageheritage
 Range of different sized food companiesRange of different sized food companies
 Major changes underway and further changesMajor changes underway and further changes
with future CAP reformwith future CAP reform
 Restructuring in farming and food industry – lossRestructuring in farming and food industry – loss
of jobs locallyof jobs locally
 Emergence of niche market for direct sales toEmergence of niche market for direct sales to
consumers and for quality speciality local foodsconsumers and for quality speciality local foods

14. OpportunitiesOpportunities
 Bord Bia research shows positive consumer attitudes inBord Bia research shows positive consumer attitudes in
Ireland to local foodIreland to local food
 Changing life styles in Ireland post ‘Celtic Tiger’Changing life styles in Ireland post ‘Celtic Tiger’
 Growing opportunities for new businesses focused initiallyGrowing opportunities for new businesses focused initially
on direct saleson direct sales
 Opportunity for growth through local public procurementOpportunity for growth through local public procurement
strategiesstrategies
 Opportunities in the growing health and wellness sector,Opportunities in the growing health and wellness sector,
e.g. removal of non-natural additives and low salt productse.g. removal of non-natural additives and low salt products
 Technical challenges can be addressed with support fromTechnical challenges can be addressed with support from
TeagascTeagasc
 Importance of local brand – BallyhouraImportance of local brand – Ballyhoura
 Linking local food to local tourism – helps to developLinking local food to local tourism – helps to develop
“brand awareness”“brand awareness”

15. Opportunities for Local FarmOpportunities for Local Farm
HouseholdsHouseholds
 Irish farms: significant proportion areIrish farms: significant proportion are
economically vulnerableeconomically vulnerable
 Alternative enterprises: rural economicAlternative enterprises: rural economic
diversification (e.g. LEADER, €425 m.)diversification (e.g. LEADER, €425 m.)
 Farmers ‘slow’ to engage in LEADERFarmers ‘slow’ to engage in LEADER
 Barriers to change: farm holders disinclinedBarriers to change: farm holders disinclined
towards service-based, sales and processingtowards service-based, sales and processing
activities – ‘farmers want to farm’activities – ‘farmers want to farm’
 Pace of economic diversification is and will bePace of economic diversification is and will be
slow among members of farming communityslow among members of farming community

16. ‘‘Middle Agriculture’ MovementMiddle Agriculture’ Movement
““The agriculture of the middle initiative is aThe agriculture of the middle initiative is a
multicentred ensemble of interests looselymulticentred ensemble of interests loosely
organised around the sociological,organised around the sociological,
economic and ecological concerns ofeconomic and ecological concerns of
sustainability related to midsize farms,sustainability related to midsize farms,
ranches, and fisheries, which haveranches, and fisheries, which have
difficulty marketing food products directlydifficulty marketing food products directly
to local customers or selling agriculturalto local customers or selling agricultural
commodities through increasingly globalcommodities through increasingly global
marketing structures”marketing structures”

17. Three-way Classification of IrishThree-way Classification of Irish
FarmsFarms
 Economically Viable (26%)Economically Viable (26%)
• Family farm income is sufficient to coverFamily farm income is sufficient to cover
family labour and return on non-land assetsfamily labour and return on non-land assets
 Sustainable (32%) … “The Middle”Sustainable (32%) … “The Middle”
• Farm is not economically viable but farmerFarm is not economically viable but farmer
and/or spouse has off-farm joband/or spouse has off-farm job
 Economically Vulnerable (25%)Economically Vulnerable (25%)
• Farm is not viable and neither farmer norFarm is not viable and neither farmer nor
spouse has an off-farm jobspouse has an off-farm job

18. Opportunities for FarmersOpportunities for Farmers
‘Middle Agriculture’ Model‘Middle Agriculture’ Model
US based: USDA, Wisconsin, Penn. StateUS based: USDA, Wisconsin, Penn. State
 GovernanceGovernance
• Farmers ‘must not only move up the value chain butFarmers ‘must not only move up the value chain but
take a greater ownership of the value chain’take a greater ownership of the value chain’
 ‘‘Federated cooperative structure’:Federated cooperative structure’:
• Critical mass to achieve scale and to contractCritical mass to achieve scale and to contract
necessary industry expertise: marketing, branding,necessary industry expertise: marketing, branding,
processing, distribution…processing, distribution…
 Targeted at growing niche in food marketsTargeted at growing niche in food markets
catering for culturally and environmentally –catering for culturally and environmentally –
conscious consumerconscious consumer

19. Federated CooperativesFederated Cooperatives
 A common seal to endorse food products/brands of localA common seal to endorse food products/brands of local
coops, highlighting “middle agr.” valuescoops, highlighting “middle agr.” values
 A third-party certification methodology bringingA third-party certification methodology bringing
consistency and guaranteesconsistency and guarantees
 Regional/national coordination of activities and flows ofRegional/national coordination of activities and flows of
productproduct
 Professional broad-scale marketing and advertisingProfessional broad-scale marketing and advertising
 Research, education and other professional supportsResearch, education and other professional supports

20. US White PaperUS White Paper
““This situation presents us with aThis situation presents us with a
unique market opportunity. There is aunique market opportunity. There is a
burgeoning market demand for foodsburgeoning market demand for foods
that are produced in accordance withthat are produced in accordance with
sustainable agriculture standards andsustainable agriculture standards and
it is precisely the farmersit is precisely the farmers ““of theof the
middlemiddle”” who are in the best position towho are in the best position to
produce those products”produce those products”

21. ‘‘Middle Agriculture’ productMiddle Agriculture’ product
 Producer groups maintain own brand identityProducer groups maintain own brand identity
and close producer/consumer linksand close producer/consumer links
 Strong Irish family farm identity:Strong Irish family farm identity: inclusive ofinclusive of
conventional farmers not only ‘alternative’conventional farmers not only ‘alternative’
producersproducers
 Branding strategy: quality, free range, non-Branding strategy: quality, free range, non-
intensively produced byintensively produced by familyfamily farmsfarms
 Contributing to social and environmentalContributing to social and environmental
sustainabilitysustainability
 Irish potential recognised internationallyIrish potential recognised internationally
‘Pathways for Growth’‘Pathways for Growth’
 Branding and marketing required to realiseBranding and marketing required to realise
value-added – ‘new generation’ cooperativevalue-added – ‘new generation’ cooperative

22. ConclusionConclusion
 Help build a strong local food cultureHelp build a strong local food culture
well integrated into the broader localwell integrated into the broader local
economyeconomy
 Ensure more local involvement inEnsure more local involvement in
local food production and farmers’local food production and farmers’
marketsmarkets
 Improve viability of more farmsImprove viability of more farms
 Develop innovation culture in theDevelop innovation culture in the
broader rural economybroader rural economy

23. Thank YouThank You