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Annual Report
2005–2006
NCAER’s Golden Jubilee:
1956–2006

The NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NCAER) was formally
inaugurated by the then President of India, Rajendra Prasad, on December 18, 1956. Its creation
formed part of a broader effort to strengthen India’s institutional competence in economics. The
Council’s original Governing Body included leading figures from both public and private sectors:
John Mathai, C.D. Deshmukh, T.T. Krishnamachari, V.T. Krishnamachari, Ashoka Mehta,
J.R.D. Tata, John F. Sinclair and N.R. Pillai. Initial financial support was provided by the Ford
Foundation which has continued to support the Council over the years. The first Director-
General, P.S. Lokanathan, took over the post after serving the Economic Commission for Asia
and Far East as its first Secretary-General. The bulk of the Council’s revenue comes from studies
done on contract for sponsors in Government, the development community and the private sector.
While all studies are managed by NCAER’s senior staff, they are often conducted in partnership
with other organisations and individuals, located both in India and abroad.
   Today, NCAER has links with major policy research institutions and universities outside
India including the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge (Mass.), USA; the
Brookings Institution, Washington DC; Centre for Economic Policy Research, London;
University of Maryland, College Park, MD and the University of Oxford.
   The NCAER work programme is currently divided into four broad research groupings:

   • Growth, trade and economic management
   • Investment climate, physical and economic infrastructure
   • Agriculture, rural development and resource management
   • Household behaviour, poverty, human development, informality and gender
   A broad theme that flows through the Council’s research activities is the progress of India’s
economic reform programme and its impact on agriculture, industry and human development.
   Mr. Suman K. Bery, the current Director-General, assumed charge on January 1, 2001. He
was earlier with the World Bank in Washington D.C. where he held a number of positions
concerned with economic research and analysis. Between 1992 and 1994, Mr. Bery was based in
Mumbai as Special Consultant to the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
   The theme underpinning of the Golden Jubilee celebration is “The Role of Applied
Economic Research in Post-Independence India” and a special volume on this has been
commissioned.
Annual Report
2005–2006




NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH
August 2006


Published by
Rajesh Chadha
Senior Counsellor [Operations] and Secretary
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Parisila Bhawan, 11 Indraprastha Estate, New Delhi 110 002
T +91 11 2337 9861–63 F +91 11 2337 0164
E infor@ncaer.org W www.ncaer.org
Contents


LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS                                                      iv

THE INSTITUTION
THE GOVERNING BODY                                                         1
FOUNDER MEMBERS                                                            2
THE GENERAL BODY                                                           2

DIRECTOR-GENERAL’S REPORT                                                  5

ACTIVITIES 2005–06
PUBLICATIONS                                                               11
PUBLIC AFFAIRS                                                            17
RESEARCH PROGRAMMES                                                       21
GROWTH, TRADE AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT                                     25
INVESTMENT CLIMATE, PHYSICAL AND ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE                  33
AGRICULTURE, RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT                    37
HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR, POVERTY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INFORMALITY AND GENDER   41

FINANCES 2005–06
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS 2005–06                                                   47

APPENDIX I: ACTIVITIES OF SENIOR STAFF                                    67

APPENDIX II: RESOURCES
STAFF COMPOSITION                                                         75
LIBRARY                                                                   79
COMPUTER CENTRE                                                           81




                                                                                CONTENTS   III
Abbreviations/Acronyms


     ACIAR                  Australian Centre of International Agricultural Research
     ADB                    Asian Development Bank
     AFMI                   American Federation of Muslims of Indian Origin
     AIMA                   All-India Management Association
     AoA                    Agreement on Agriculture
     APEDA                  Agricultural and Processed Food Export Development Authority
     APL                    Above Poverty Line
     ARIS                   Additional Rural Income Survey
     ASSOCHAM               Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry
     BCI                    Business Confidence Index
     BITS                   Birla Institute of Technology and Science
     BPL                    Below Poverty Line
     CCI                    Competition Commission of India
     CDPOs                  Child Development Project Officers
     CEAs                   Committee on Economic Affairs
     CEPR                   Centre for Economic Policy Research
     CGE                    Computable General Equilibrium
     CICs                   Community Information Centres
     CII                    Confederation of Indian Industry
     CPRC                   Chronic Poverty Research Centre
     CSIR                   Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
     CSO                    Central Statistical Organisation
     CUTS                   Consumer Unity and Trust Society ( Jaipur)
     DDA                    Delhi Development Authority
     DEA                    Development of Economic Affairs
     DELs                   Direct Exchange Lines
     DEPB                   Duty Entitlement Pass Book (scheme)
     DFID                   Department for International Development (U.K.)
     DIT                    Department of Information Technology (Govt. of India)
     DNA                    Daily News and Analysis
     DRDO                   Defence Research and Development Organisation
     DWCD                   Department of Women & Child Development (Govt. of India)
     ECARES                 European Centre for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics
     ECCP                   Europe- India Cross Cultural Programme
     EPS                    Electronic Payment System
     EU                     European Union




IV   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005   2006




FDI      Foreign Direct Investment
FICCI    Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry
FPAC     Fiscal Policy Analysis Cell
FTA      Free Trade Agreement
GDP      Gross Domestic Product
HDFC     Housing Development Finance Corporation
HDI      Human Development Index
HPCL     Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
IAMR     Institute of Applied Manpower Research
IASSI    Indian Association of Social Sciences Institutions
ICAI     Institute of Chartered Accountants of India
ICRIER   Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations
IEG      Institute of Economic Growth
IMFL     India-Made Foreign Liquor
INSA     Indian National Science Academy (New Delhi)
IOT      Input-Output Table
IPF      India Policy Forum
IRR      Incremental Rate of Return
IWT      Inland Waterways Transportation
JETRO    Japan External Trade Organisation
JKP      Jan Kerosene Pariyojana
JSG      Joint Study Group
LPG      Liquefied Petroleum Gas
METI     Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Govt. of Japan)
MISH     Market Information Survey of Households
NACO     National AIDS Control Organisation
NARS     National Agricultural Research System
NAS      National Accounts Statistics
NATP     National Agricultural Technology Project
NBER     National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, MA, USA)
NIC      National Informatics Centre
NIPFP    National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (New Delhi)
NORAD    Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation
NSHIE    National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure
NSSO     National Sample Survey Organisation
O&M      Organisation & Management
OECD     Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
ORS      Oral Rehydration Solution
PDS      Public Distribution System
PER      Poverty and Economic Policy
PHDCCI   Punjab, Haryana and Delhi Chamber of Commerce and Industry
PPAC     Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell
REDS     Rural Economic and Demographic Survey
RITES    Rail India Technical and Economic Services Ltd.
SAM      Social Accounting Matrix
SANEI    South Asia Network of Economic Research Institutes




                               ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS   V
2005   2006




       SBI                    State Bank of India
       SDP                    State Domestic Product
       SKO                    Superior Kerosene Oil
       TERI                   Tata Energy and Resources Institute
       TES                    Techno-Economic Surveys
       TRIMs                  Trade Related Investment Measures
       TSA                    Tourism Satellite Account
       UNDP                   United Nations Development Programme
       USAID                  United States Agency for International Development
       USOF                   Universal Service Obligation Fund
       UT                     Union Territory
       VPTs                   Village Public Telephones
       WHO                    World Health Organisation
       WTO                    World Trade Organisation




  VI   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
The Institution
THE GOVERNING BODY*

The Governing Body met four times during 2005–06: on April 11, July 20, November 22, 2005,
and March 30, 2006. The General Body met on July 20, 2005.

President
Bimal Jalan

Vice President
M.S. Verma                Ex-Chairman, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India and State Bank
                          of India

Secretary
Rajesh Chadha             Senior Fellow and Senior Counsellor (Operations) and Secretary

Members
Shankar N. Acharya  Honorary Professor and Member, Board of Governors, Indian Council
                    for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New
                    Delhi
Isher J. Ahluwalia  Chairperson, Board of Governors, Indian Council for Research on
                    International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi
Mukesh D. Ambani    Chairperson, Reliance Industries Ltd., Mumbai
Suman K. Bery       Director-General, NCAER, New Delhi (ex-officio)
Surjit S. Bhalla    Managing Director, O(x)us Investments Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi
Tarun Das           Chief Mentor, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), New Delhi
Yogesh C. Deveshwar Chairperson, ITC Ltd., Kolkata
Ashok Jha           Secretary, Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India
                    (ex-officio)
Ashok S. Ganguly    Chairperson, ICICI One-Source Ltd., Mumbai
K.V. Kamath         Managing Director and CEO, ICICI Bank Ltd., Mumbai
Naina Lal Kidwai    Chief Executive Officer, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking
                    Corporation, Mumbai
Anand G. Mahindra   Managing Director and Vice-Chairperson, Mahindra & Mahindra
                    Ltd., Mumbai
R.A. Mashelkar      Director-General, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
                    (CSIR), New Delhi
Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw Chairperson & Managing Director, Biocon India Ltd., Bangalore
Rakesh Mohan        Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India
Rohini Nayyar       Ex-Senior Consultant, Planning Commission, New Delhi
Deepak S. Parekh    Chairperson, Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.
                    (HDFC), Mumbai
Rajendra S. Pawar   Chairperson, National Institute of Information Technology (NIIT),
                    New Delhi
* As on August 1, 2006.




                                                                                 THE INSTITUTION   1
2005   2006




       FOUNDER MEMBERS

       J.R.D. Tata                                 John Mathai
       N.R. Pillai                                V.T. Krishnamachari
       C.D. Deshmukh                              J.F. Sinclair
       T.T. Krishnamachari                        Ashoka Mehta

       THE GENERAL BODY*

       Life Members                               Patron Members
       Subir Gupta                                Bata India Ltd.
       S.M. Wahi                                  DCL Polyesters Ltd.
       D.N. Patodia                               ICICI Bank Ltd.
                                                  State Bank of India

       Special Member
       New Zealand High Commission, New Delhi

       Corporate Members
        1. A.F. Ferguson & Company                20.Insurance Regulatory and Development
        2. Asian Development Bank                     Authority
        3. Associated Chambers of Commerce        21. Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd.
           and Industry                           22. Kochi Refineries Ltd.
        4. Bank of Baroda                         23. Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd.
        5. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd.      24. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
        6. Confederation of Indian Industry       25. Mineral and Metal Trading Corporation
        7. Central Electricity Regulatory             of India Ltd.
           Commission                             26. Murugappa Management Services Ltd.
        8. Crompton Greaves Ltd.                  27. National Dairy Development Board
        9. Eicher Goodearth Ltd.                  28. National Mineral Development
       10. E.I.D. Parry (India) Ltd.                  Corporation Ltd.
       11. Federation of Indian Chambers of       29. PCP Chemicals Private Ltd.
           Commerce and Industry                  30. Pepsi Foods Private Ltd.
       12. V. Malik and Associates, Chartered     31. Population Council for South and
           Accountants                                East Asia
       13. Godfrey Philips India Limited          32. Punjab National Bank
       14. Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing Co.     33. Punjab University
           Ltd.                                   34. PHD Chamber of Commerce and
       15. Hindalco Industries Ltd.                   Industry
       16. ICI India Limited                      35. Rail India Technical and Economic
       17. ICRA Ltd.                                  Services Ltd. (RITES)
       18. Indian Banks’ Association              36. Sakthi Sugars Ltd.
       19. Industrial Development Bank of India   37. Shell India Private Ltd.



       * As on March 31, 2006.




   2   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005    2006




38.   Standard Chartered Bank                   42. Telecom Regulatory Authority of India
39.   Tata Consultancy Services                 43. Valsad District Co-operative Milk
40.   Tata Iron and Steel Company Ltd.              Production Union
41.   Tata Power Company Ltd.                   44. XLO India Ltd.

Ordinary Members
 1. D.R. Agarwal                                 6. EPW Research Foundation
 2. M. Balasubramaniam                           7. Global Business Park
 3. Birla Institute of Technology and Science    8. Vikram Kumar
    (BITS)                                       9. Martin and Harris Pvt. Ltd.
 4. Central Leather Research Institute          10. Rajan S. Talekar
 5. R.T. Doshi

Number of Members
                                                   March 31, 2005        March 31, 2006
Corporate members paying Rs. 5,000/-
    per annum                                            48                       44
Ordinary members paying Rs. 500/-
    per annum                                            13                       10
Patron members paying a one-time
    subscription of Rs. 1 lakh                            4                        4
Special members paying a one-time
    subscription of Rs. 1 lakh                            1                        1

Total                                                    66                       59

Total fees received                                 Rs. 2,40, 000         Rs. 2, 25, 000




                                                                                  THE INSTITUTION   3
THE FIRST PRIME MINISTER
OF INDIA, PANDIT
JAWAHARLAL NEHRU,
LAYING THE FOUNDATION
STONE OF THE COUNCIL'S
BUILDING IN 1959




                           THE NCAER’S FOUNDATION STONE IN ITS
                           GOLDEN JUBILEE CELEBRATION YEAR
Director-General’s Report


THE GOLDEN JUBILEE                                 pattern has endured through the five
2006–07 is being commemorated as NCAER’s           intervening decades; even today, 50 years later,
Golden Jubilee. Preparing for these                revenue from projects (and seminars) accounts
celebrations has stimulated a valuable review of   for some 90 per cent of our total revenue of
the origins and purposes of the Council. It has    Rs. 11.5 crore.
also prompted an assessment in the Governing           The NCAER of 2006 remains true to the
Body and among the senior staff of what has        vision of its founders; we continue to believe
endured, what has changed, and how to keep         that diversified support is the best guarantee of
the Council relevant to serve India in the         both accountability and independence. Yet
coming decades.                                    experience has shown that high reliance on
    I am happy to say that the tradition of wide   project revenue alone creates difficulties in
support from government, industry, and             building and retaining capacity. Accordingly,
academia for NCAER continues, as a glance at       since the early 1990s, my predecessors and I
the composition of the current Governing           have aimed to supplement project revenue
Body will indicate. I am particularly grateful     with corpus (and other untied grant income)
for the exceptional support that has been          to provide a necessary anchor for sustaining
provided by the President, Dr. Bimal Jalan, the    capacity and building scale in the Council’s
Vice-President, Mr. M.S. Verma, and others in      activities.
the Governing Body in planning and                     Under the McKinsey-led review of the
implementing our Golden Jubilee activities.        Council in 2001, it was suggested that we
    I feel honoured and privileged to be the       should aim for at least 30 per cent of our work
Director-General of the Council at this            to be endowment-supported. In reviewing past
important milestone. It coincides with the         Annual Reports, I find that this was also a
start of my second term, and I am grateful to      target enunciated in 1996 by my immediate
the members of the Governing Body for their        predecessor, Dr. Rakesh Mohan. This remains
continued trust in me.                             a benchmark toward which we continue to
    While the Council was provided a               work, both in raising our endowment and
handsome initial grant of both money and           improving its management. Accordingly, as
land by the Ford Foundation and the                part of the Golden Jubilee effort, we are taking
Government, there was concern from the             a fresh look at our investment policies, as per
outset to establish and to preserve the            regulations applicable to non-profit
intellectual independence of the Council, as       organisations.
well as to ensure the practical orientation of         Two other long-standing characteristics of
the Council’s work programme.                      the Council are its capacity for large-scale
    Accordingly, it was expected that the          data-collection and its relatively large size.
Council would be substantially financed            I am indebted to my illustrious predecessor,
through fees for its analyses and advice. This     Dr. I.Z. Bhatty, for his recollections on how




                                                                        DIRECTOR-GENERAL’S REPORT      5
2005   2006




       these features came to be. He points out that       symbolises the cordial, professional
       the Council was created at the start of the         relationship that the NCAER and the NSSO
       Second Five-Year Plan, which was India’s first      have established over the years.
       serious effort at planned development. The              These initial studies helped NCAER
       need to plan imposed a burden on the States         establish a capacity for organising large-scale
       for which they were unprepared. The result          surveys with greater flexibility than was
       was a series of techno-economic surveys             possible for the NSSO, while respecting
       (TES) for individual States undertaken by the       academic standards for management of both
       newly-formed NCAER. Because the TES had             sampling and non-sampling errors. This
       to be done for all States in a hurry, the size of   capacity has been used over the years to
       the Council enlarged rather rapidly.                provide fundamental information in areas as
           NCAER’s subsequent entry into the area          diverse as the dairy sector, household
       of large-scale household surveys further            consumption of energy, the fertiliser sector and
       determined the Council’s scale. In the 1950s        the like. A landmark study in the early 1970s
       and 1960s, the fundamental development task         was the multi-round Additional Rural Income
       was to raise the investment rate. Sustainable       Survey (ARIS) designed to capture the impact
       financing entailed a corresponding rise in          of the Green Revolution on rural welfare.
       domestic savings. At the time, there was no         Follow-up surveys of the same households
       reliable information on household incomes           periodically over the next 35 years (including a
       and savings at the national level, especially in    round currently being collected) have provided
       respect of rural households. NCAER’s all-           a matchless longitudinal resource for
       India surveys provided some of the earliest         understanding rural development and
       direct estimates of household incomes, savings      economic change over the bulk of the
       and consumption, and helped to establish the        Council’s existence.
       Council’s capacity for large-scale household            A glance at the Annual Reports from as far
       surveys, which has been one of its hallmarks        back as the early 1960s shows much continuity
       over the years. NCAER was a pioneer in the          with the Council’s work today. The continued
       field leading the way for subsequent official       focus on savings and consumption has already
       exercises by the Reserve Bank of India and          been noted, but there was an equally strong
       others.                                             focus on infrastructure and energy which
           Given the preference of the Government’s        continues. A large number of studies
       National Sample Survey Organisation                 forecasting demand for consumer goods find
       (NSSO) to collect information on                    their echo in our ongoing work on consumer
       consumption rather than income, such                markets. The array of sponsors as between
       systematic information as exists on income          Government, private sector and international
       (and income distribution) in India, particularly    bodies is also quite similar to today.
       rural India, has in general been generated              As I indicated in last year’s message, our
       through NCAER’s various surveys over the            international contacts are, at present, extremely
       years. Indeed, in some ways we have returned        vibrant. It is instructive to find that there was a
       to our roots as the current round of the Market     steady stream of international academics even
       Information Survey of Households (MISH)             in the early 1960s. Indeed, in certain other
       has been extended to provide fuller data on         respects such as revenue from publications and
       household incomes than in the past. I am            staff training and development, the Council of
       grateful to Dr. N.S. Sastry, former Director-       the early 1960s was perhaps even more
       General of the NSSO for his expertise and           advanced than that of today.
       wise counsel in assisting us in this matter. This       In sum, the NCAER today is a continuing




   6   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005    2006




testament to the energy and foresight of a          Office (CSO). The NCAER’s methodology
diverse group of leaders in a young nation who      and sample design for capturing domestic
had a belief in the importance of empirical         travel was hailed by the World Tourism
analysis as a basis for sound decisions in both     Organisation as a model for other developing
the public and private spheres. It was a vision     countries.
born of the confidence that India was destined          NCAER was requested by the Ministry of
to be a serious and important nation in the         Petroleum and Natural Gas to undertake a
world, which deserved institutions of this          major study of household distribution of
stature. It is fortunate that the Council’s         Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO). SKO is an
Golden Jubilee is taking place at a moment          important household fuel used for both
when India’s horizons seem limitless and when       lighting and heating. It is provided through
confidence is once again widespread. Our            the public distribution system (PDS) at below
Golden Jubilee celebrations are accordingly an      market prices by the Union Government, with
opportunity to salute the vision of our             the ultimate responsibility for distribution and
predecessors, to acknowledge the continuing         pricing resting with State Governments. The
validity of the model they created, and to          NCAER’s study provided estimates of the
upgrade our capacity to be of service to the        reach of the PDS, State taxation of SKO, the
nation in the exciting times that lie ahead.        differences among States in organising the
                                                    distribution of kerosene, and of the apparent
Academic Highlights                                 diversion of household kerosene to other uses.
The Council’s capacity for large-scale data             Innovative and sensitive field work was
collection was demonstrated in many contexts        also required in our project for the National
in 2004–05. We were honoured by the Prime           AIDS Control Organisation (NACO),
Minister’s launch of the India Science Report       supported by NCAER’s long-standing partner
commissioned by the India National Science          the UNDP, to measure the socioeconomic
Academy (INSA) in a ceremony at Vigyan              impact of HIV-AIDS in the six high-
Bhavan. I would like to thank our Governing         prevalence States of India. The study team had
Body Member, Dr. R.A. Mashelkar, current            to grapple with difficult issues of
President of INSA, for providing this visibility    confidentiality and sensitivity to gather this
to our work.                                        information which has generated a very
    In his remarks at the launch, and in            important data set on the subject.
subsequent statements, the Prime Minister has           As mentioned earlier, Dr. N.S. Sastry,
repeatedly referred to the findings of the study,   formerly of the NSSO, has kindly assisted the
particularly on the declining interest in science   NCAER in an appraisal of its field-work and
studies as students enter higher classes. These     data dissemination activities, with a view to
results were based on a large survey designed       making them more robust and transparent. We
by NCAER’s staff in consultation with INSA,         are indebted to him for his advice.
which drew upon international best practice in          There was considerable activity on a range
science surveys.                                    of other fronts as well. We were approached by
    Earlier, work to capture data on domestic       the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of the
tourism led to a further assignment from the        Sultanate of Oman for advice on setting up a
Ministry of Tourism to assemble India’s first       policy research cell within the Ministry. It is
“Domestic Satellite Accounts” – an exercise         striking to note that this form of advisory work
coordinated by NCAER with advisory input            was anticipated and provided for in the
by a broad range of statistical agencies            original memorandum of association of the
including the RBI and the Central Statistical       NCAER!




                                                                         DIRECTOR-GENERAL’S REPORT     7
2005   2006




           Our own partnerships, international and       position of Finance Officer till late in the year,
       domestic, have continued to flourish, with        we retained Messrs. Ajay Sethi Associates as
       regular joint activities with the National        financial advisors to ensure the integrity of our
       Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), The           internal systems, and of our compliance with
       Brookings Institution, and the Australia-India    statutory functions. I would like to repeat my
       Council, documented elsewhere in the report.      thanks to our Vice-President, Mr. Verma, for
       We deepened our cooperation on                    the considerable time and interest he expends
       infrastructure and regulation with a              in advising us on these matters.
       consortium of three European institutions, led        The financial outcome revealed in the
       by the Centre for Economic Policy Research        accounts reflects continued productivity
       (CEPR), London and supported by the               improvement, in that there has been a large
       European Union Mission to India under the         increase in both gross and net project revenues
       Europe-India Cross Cultural Programme             (net of payment to professionals and
       (ECCP). The grant permitted original papers       survey/data gathering) with no increase in staff
       to be commissioned on issues in infrastructure    salaries and allowances. A glance at the
       regulation and on public-private partnerships.    staffing composition table shows that the latter
       We were honoured that Montek Singh                reflects continued (though slowing) reduction
       Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of the Planning        in the size of our regular research staff,
       Commission, participated in the launch            complemented by a fluctuating body of non-
       workshop for this event. Extensive data           regular research staff. As in previous years let
       gathering and clearing continues on important     me salute all the Council’s staff, research and
       household data sets in cooperation with the       support, regular and adhoc for their
       Universities of Maryland, Harvard and Brown.      professionalism, dedication and hard work.
           Finally, I would like to acknowledge the          The long-term trend has also been
       continued support of the Ministry of              positive. We have shed much of the excess
       Commerce, which has been extremely                capacity that perhaps existed on the research
       generous in involving NCAER in policy-            side, and we have been able to re-orient our
       oriented work connected with many aspects of      salary outgo once to payments linked to
       India’s trade policy and trade negotiations.      individual and corporate performance. Review
       Their sustained interest has encouraged us to     of our overhead expenses suggests that the
       increase our capacity in this area. I was         overhead “load” per project threatens to make
       personally privileged to participate as a         us uncompetitive, and that we may need to
       member of the Indo-Japan Joint Study Group,       expand our portfolio of projects to reduce this
       chaired by the Secretary Economic Affairs,        load. Accordingly, we followed a more
       Shri Ashok Jha, a member of our Governing         systematic approach to recruitment of
       Body.                                             researchers this year. The results were not
                                                         entirely commensurate with the effort, and we
       Management and Finances                           will need to work even harder to attract talent
       Considerable effort was devoted to a range of     appropriate to our reputation and aspirations.
       management initiatives over the year. While
       progress is being made, it is slower than we      Looking Forward
       would wish. Project accounting, management        Over the course of the past few years NCAER
       of receivables, crystallisation of liabilities,   has developed and upgraded a number of
       statutory compliance, contract management         channels for dissemination of research on the
       and financing of capital assets all received      Indian economy. These include the suite of
       attention. As there remained a vacancy in the     products connected with the Quarterly Review




   8   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005   2006




of the Economy (Business Expectation Survey,    site to provide a spectrum of data and views on
MacroTrack, the Quarterly Review of the         the Indian economy. In the earlier part of this
Economy report itself ); Artha Suchi; Margin;   Report I focused on the continuity in our
the India Policy Forum; and Connexions.         work; these are some of our fresh departures.
Several of these are peer – reviewed and are    I believe they remain consistent with our core
designed to provide an arena for empirical      purpose and mandate: to bring data and
debate on policy issues facing the Indian       analysis to bear, in a neutral and professional
economy. This bouquet of print offerings will   way, to the challenge of India’s economic
be complemented with our redesigned web-        development as it evolves.




                                                                     DIRECTOR-GENERAL’S REPORT    9
THE PRESIDENT, DR BIMAL
JALAN, DELIVERING A
SPEECH ON THE OCCASION
OF THE NCAER GOLDEN
JUBILEE CELEBRATION
EVENT AT NCAER, NEW
DELHI, MARCH 30, 2006




GOVERNING BODY
MEMBERS AT A GET-
TOGETHER WITH NCAER
STAFF MEMBERS ON THE
NCAER LAWNS ON THE
OCCASION OF THE NCAER
GOLDEN JUBILEE
CELEBRATION EVENT AT
NCAER, NEW DELHI, MARCH
30, 2006
Activities 2005-06
PUBLICATIONS*


BOOKS                                                             these items – by income as well as occupation
                                                                  groups – in different cities as well as States.
The Great Indian Market: Results from the                              In addition, The Great Indian Market
NCAER Market Information Survey of                                introduces various new analyses. For example,
Households                                                        it includes a consumption matrix that shows
(2005, NCAER AND BUSINESS STANDARD, PP. 284)                      the relationship between purchases of different
                          Since 1985–86,                          consumer durables. Such questions are at the
                          NCAER has been                          heart of any marketing campaign, and the
                          conducting the                          product matrix helps arrive at useful answers.
                          Market Information                      Another first is the move toward consumption
                          Survey of House-                        of services, such as data on the demand for life
                          holds (MISH) in a                       and medical insurance, credit and debit cards
                          broadly comparable                      and mobile phones.
                          and consistent                               The Great Indian Market also attempts to
                          framework. The                          measure the market for second-hand goods,
                          report stems from an                    and how this differs in the case of different
annual all-India NCAER survey of 300,000                          durables, for different income/occupation
households over 515 cities and 400 districts.                     groups, and between rural and urban areas. It
While the focus of the MISH surveys has                           captures the prices paid for both new as well as
traditionally been ownership and purchase of                      second-hand goods by various income/
manufactured goods (consumer durables and                         occupation groups.
consumables), they are also distinctive in                        PRINCIPAL NCAER STAFF: RAJESH SHUKLA,
asking the respondent households about their                      SANJAY KUMAR DWIVEDI, ASHA SHARMA AND CHARU
household income.                                                 JAIN WITH ASSISTANCE FROM SUNIL JAIN OF BUSINESS
    This is a comprehensive report on what the                    STANDARD
Indian consumer is buying and how the
pattern is projected to change by the end of the                  India’s Telecommunications Industry:
decade by examining the interaction between                       History, Analysis, Diagnosis
rising household income levels and evolving                       (ASHOK V. DESAI, 2006, SAGE (INDIA) LTD., PP. 294)
consumer preferences. It provides demand                          This study was commissioned by NCAER’s
trends for 20 categories of durable goods and                     Centre for Infrastructure and Regulation to
seven of consumer goods from actual                               provide an independent account of the
consumption in 1995–96 to projections for                         political economy of reforms in the telecom
2009–10 and details of who is purchasing                          sector, so as to draw lessons for reform in other

* Research programme and study output of the NCAER researchers published prior to August 1, 2006 in the form of books,
reports, journals, research papers and articles by NCAER as well as by other prestigious global and Indian publishing houses.
NCAER publications/ periodicals are available by direct/ email order, through subscription/ online order at the NCAER web site:
www.ncaer.org or publ@ncaer.org




                                                                                                          ACTIVITIES 2005–06      11
2005   2006




                                            regulated sectors. In    various States/Union
                                            addition to the          Territories and to
                                            author’s analysis, the   assess its demand by
                                            volume is noteworthy     different types of
                                            for detailed             ration cards and pla-
                                            appendices that chart    ces of residence; con-
                                            the evaluation of the    sumption and usage
                                            sector over the last     pattern of consumers
                                            two decades.             and leakage. It fore-
                                            PRINCIPAL NCAER          casts the demand for
       STAFF: SUMAN BERY AND SKN NAIR                                kerosene and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
                                                                     and establishes correlations, if any, between the
       Social Accounting Matrix for India:                           requirement of kerosene and release of new
       Concepts, Construction and Applications                       LPG connections. The study found that the
       (2006, SAGE (INDIA) LTD., PP. 438)                            per capita allocation of PDS kerosene is biased
                                  This book presents a               towards richer States and there is no set
                                  new Social                         pattern of allocation to different types of cards.
                                  Accounting Matrix                  PRINCIPAL NCAER STAFF: DEVENDRA KUMAR
                                  (SAM) for the                      PANT, SHASHANKA BHIDE, P K ROY, S K DWIVEDI,
                                  Indian economy for                 R K JAISWAL AND SHISHIR SHEKHAR
                                  the year 1997–98. It
                                  provides detailed and              SERIALS
                                  consistent infor-
                                  mation on produc-                  India Policy Forum 2005–06 (Volume 2)
                                  tion for 60 sectors,               (Annual)
       and on income distribution for six categories                 (2006, NCAER AND THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION,
       of occupational households, separately for                    WASHINGTON DC, SAGE (INDIA) LTD., PP. 308
       rural and urban areas. Using fresh figures, the               SUMAN BERY, BARRY BOSWORTH, AND ARVIND
       authors also present the SAM for 2002–03. In                  PANAGARIYA (EDS.)
       addition, this book goes into details of the                  India Policy Forum
       concepts, methodology and limitations of the                  (IPF) is an annual
       construction of SAM for India. This book will                 publication dedicated
       be very useful for researchers who are working                to analysing contem-
       in the area of input-output analysis, SAM and                 porary trends in the
       Computable General Equilibrium Modelling                      Indian economy. Its
       for India.                                                    objective is to carry
       PRINCIPAL NCAER STAFF: BASANTA K PRADHAN,                     theoretically rigorous
       M R SALUJA AND SHALABH K SINGH                                yet empirically in-
                                                                     formed research on current issues relating to
       REPORTS                                                       India’s economic policy. A joint publication of
                                                                     NCAER and Brookings, IPF serves as a forum
       Comprehensive Study to Assess the                             for a global network of scholars interested in
       Genuine Demand and Requirement of SKO                         India’s economic transformation.
       (2005, NCAER, PP. 172)                                        Contributor Highlights
       A study on distribution of kerosene through                   • Willem H. Buiter and Urjit R. Patel on “Fiscal
       the Public Distribution System (PDS) by                          Deficits, the Financial Sector, and Growth”




  12   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005    2006




• M. Govinda Rao and R. Kavita Rao on “Tax Policy and   provides a forum for
   Tax Reform”                                          well-known scholars,
• Sheetal K. Chand and Kanhaiya Singh on “Inflation     civil servants and
   Targeting”                                           journalists to
• Surjit S. Bhalla and Tirthatanmoy Das on “Labor       comment on public
   Markets”                                             affairs, while also
• Roger G. Noll and Scott J. Wallsten on “Universal     serving as a vehicle
   Service Obligation in Telecommunications”            for dissemination of
                                                        research at the
SUBSCRIPTION PRODUCTS                                   Council.
                                                        Contributor Highlights
Quarterly Review of the Economy                         • Chadha, R. and Sharma, Pooja (2005). “Liberalising
(NCAER, QUARTERLY PUBLICATION                               Indian agriculture.” 37 (3), Apr.-June.
COORDINATOR: DEVENDRA KUMAR PANT                        • Chadha, R. Pratap, Devender, Sharma, Pooja, &
                          Designed to meet the              Tandon, Anjali (2005). “Indian textiles: weaving a
                          needs of policy                   success story.” 37 (4), July-Sept.
                          makers, corporates            •   Pant, Devendra Kumar, Jaiswal, Rajesh, and
                          and others interested             Shekhar, Shishir (2005). “Household kerosene
                          in tracking the latest            consumption patterns.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec.
                          developments in the           • Rao, Ch. Sambasiva (2005). “Information and
                          Indian economy,                   communication.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec.
                          Quarterly Review              • Arora, G.K. (2005). “The making of a statesman.”
                          provides an analysis              38 (1), Oct.-Dec.
                          of current policies           • Asher, Mukul and Vasudevan, Deepa (2005). “The
and tracks developments in the domestic and                 role of pension regulators.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec.
world economy. NCAER growth forecasts are               • Chandra Mohan, N. (2005). “Stepping up FDI into
objective and widely quoted in Indian and                   India.” 37 (3), Apr.-June.
international media. The subscribers to                 • Chari, P.R. (2005). “Indo-US nuclear Deal.” 37 (4),
Quarterly Review also receive a copy of                     July-Sept.
detailed report on NCAER’s quarterly Business           • Jain, Sunil (2005). “The war for the regulator’s
Expectations Survey. An integral part of                    heart.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec.
Quarterly Review is its quarterly “State of the         • Manas Chakrvarty (2005). “Global liquidity and
Economy” seminars organised at NCAER,                       emerging markets.” 37 (3), Apr.-June.
bringing together policy makers, industry               • Mehta, Pradeep S. and Pranav Kumar (2005). “The
leaders and researchers on to a single platform.            post-Hong Kong scenario.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec.
                                                        • Subrahmanya, M.H. Bala, (2005). “SSI energy con-
Margin (Quarterly)                                          sumption economics in Karnataka.” 37 (4), July-Sept.
(NCAER, ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION INCLUDING POSTAGE,          • Yue-Wei Hu. (2005). “Private (occupational) pensions
RS 500/ US $ 100)                                           in China.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec.
VOLUME 37, NUMBER 3, 4 AND VOLUME 38, NUMBER 1, 2

EDITOR: T C A SRINIVASA-RAGHAVAN                        Artha Suchi (Quarterly)
Margin’s emphasis on policy analysis and                (NCAER, ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION, INCLUDING POSTAGE,
application of modern quantitative techniques           RS. 300/ US$ 80)
in developmental issues brings forth research           VOLUME 22, NUMBER 3, 4 AND VOLUME 23, NUMBER 1, 2
findings in broad areas of applied economics,           EDITOR: N J SEBASTIAN




                                                                                                 ACTIVITIES 2005–06   13
2005   2006




                                    A computerised               PARTICIPATING INSTITUTIONS
                                    index of government          NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH
                                    reports/journal              (NCAER)
                                    articles/newspaper           CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH (CEPR),
                                    write-ups related to         LONDON
                                    the Indian economy,          INSTITUTE D’ECONOMIE INDUSTRIELLE (IDEI), TOULOUSE
                                    brought out by the           EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED RESEARCH IN
                                    NCAER Library.               ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS (ECARES), BRUSSELLS

                                                                 The Newsletter is intended to provide news
       MacroTrack (Monthly)                                      and analysis relating to the infrastructure
       (NCAER, ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION, INCLUDING POSTAGE,           sector. Issues relating to regulation and
       RS. 3,000/US $100)                                        competition in the sector will be given special
       VOLUME 7, NUMBER 4 TO VOLUME 8, NUMBER 3 (12 ISSUES)      attention. The Newsletter also provides an
       EDITOR: DEVENDRA KUMAR PANT                               opportunity to participating researchers to
                                  Information and                report on the work carried out in the project.
                                  research-based
                                  analysis on major              OTHER PUBLICATIONS
                                  trends in the
                                  economy, industry,             Bandyopadhyay, S (2006): “Cotton Textile
                                  and finance.                   Industry in India: Implications for MFA
                                  Supplementary                  Phaseout” in Beyond the Transition Phase of
                                  analysis, based on             WTO, Academic Foundation, Delhi.
                                  NCAER’s Business
                                  Expectations Survey            Bedi, J.S (December 2005): “General Statistics
       (BES) and the NCAER Macroeconomic                         for Food Processing Sector, 2005” – Databank
       Forecast are also included. Each issue carries            book, Ministry of Food Processing,
       statistics on major States, based on current              Government of India.
       issues of economic importance.
                                                                 Bhide, S, Chadha, R and Kalirajan, K (2005,
       Connexions (Quarterly)                                    December): “Growth Interdependence among
       (NCAER, FREE)                                             Indian States: An Exploration”, Asia-Pacific
       VOLUME 1, NUMBER 1 TO VOLUME 2, NUMBER 2 (THREE ISSUES)   Development Journal, Vol. 12, No. 2.
       EDITOR: SHASHANKA BHIDE

                             “Efficiency, equity                 Bhide, S, Rajaraman I and Pattnaik R.K
                             and access in Indian                (2005, October): “A Study of Debt
                             Infrastructure: blend-              Sustainability at State level in India”, Reserve
                             ing competition and                 Bank of India, Mumbai.
                             regulation” (Project
                             co-funded by The                    Bhide, S and Mehta, A.K (2006): “Correlates
                             European Union                      of Incidence and Exit from Chronic Poverty in
                             under the “University               Rural India: Evidence from Panel Data”,
                             and Studies” dimen-                 Chronic Poverty & Development Policy in India,
                             sion of the EU-India                edited by Aasha Kapur Mehta and Andrew
       Economic Cross-Cultural Programme).                       Shepherd, Sage Publications.




  14   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005    2006




Buragohain, T (2005, October): “Level of        Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in
Awareness of RTI/STI and HIV/AIDS, and          Health and Family Welfare Sector in India”,
Gender Discrimination in Treatment in           Working Paper No. 97 NCAER.
India”, published in a special international
conference volume titled Engendering Health     Pohit, S (2005, December): “Mitigating
and Human Rights.                               Carbon Emission through Economic
                                                Instruments: An Indian Perspective, 2005”,
Chadha, R (2005): “FTAs and Doha                Working Paper No. 96, NCAER.
Development Round: Asian Response to EEU
and FTAA”, Global Economy Journal, 5(4),        Pohit, S (2005, July): “Trade Facilitation
Berkeley Electronic Press.                      Problems & Informalisation of Trade: Lesson
                                                from India-Bangladesh Trade”, proceedings of
Chadha, R (2005, Oct-Dec): “Sectoral            the International Seminar on Indo-Bangladesh
Initiatives: A Paradoxical Component of         Border Trade: Status & Prospects, North Eastern
NAMA!”, Trading Up, 1(3), Centre for Trade      Hill University, Shillong.
and Development, OXFAM GB, New Delhi.
                                                Pohit, S (2006, January): “WTO Agreement
Dubey, A, Palmer-Jones, Richard and Sen, K      on Agriculture, Liberalisation in Select
(2006, March): “Surplus Labour, Social Struc-   Countries, and Implications for South Asia: A
ture and Rural to Urban Migration: Evidence     CGE Modelling Analysis,” proceedings of the
from Indian Data”, European Journal of Deve-    International Conference on International Trade,
lopment Research, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 89–107.   Jadavpur University, Kolkata.

Dubey, A and Gupta, N.D (2006, January):        Pradhan, B.K and Amarendra, A (2006): “The
“Fertility and the Household’s Economic         Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Household
Status: a Natural Experiment using Indian       Welfare and Poverty in India,” MPIA
Micro Data”, Journal of Development Studies,    Working Paper 2006–01, Poverty and
Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 110–138.                    Economic Policy (PEP) Network,
                                                (http://132.203.59.36/NEW-PEP/Group/
Dubey, A and Haan, A (2005, May): “Orissa:      papers/papers/MPIA-2006 – 01.pdf ).
Poverty, Disparities or the Development of
Under-development?”, Economic and Political     Shariff, A and Razzak, A (2006): “Communal
Weekly, pp. 2321–29.                            Relations and Social Integration in India,”
                                                Social Development Report, Oxford University
Kaur, R (2005, Oct-Dec): “Indian Punjab:        Press.
Social Regulation of Rice Production,” South
Asian Journal, Vol. 10, pp. 94–101.             Shariff, A (2006): “Some Thoughts on Nature
                                                and Persistence of Poverty in India,” in
Kumar, P, Pradhan, B.K and Subramanian, A       Deprivation and Inclusive Development,
(2005, December): “Farmland Prices in a         (editors) Diwakar, D.M and Mishra, G.P,
Developing Economy: Some Stylised Facts         Manak Publications: pp. 295–335.
and Determinants,” Journal of International
and Area Studies, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 93–113.   Shariff, A and Mondal, S.K (2006): “User
                                                Fee in Public Health Care Institutions
Mondal, S.K and Kanwal, V (2006, March):        Security: Health for All Dimensions
“Addressing Key Issues in the Light of          and Challenges” (editors) Sujata Prasad and




                                                                               ACTIVITIES 2005–06   15
2005   2006




       C. Sathyamala, Institute of Human                  Singh, K. and Bery, S.K (2005): “India’s
       Development.                                       Growth Experience”, in (editors) Wanda
                                                          Tseng and David Cowen India’s and China’s
       Shariff, A (2006): “Household Food and             Recent Experience with Reform and Growth,
       Nutrition Security in India, Economic              IMF and Palgrave-Macmillan, pp. 23–58.
       Reforms and Food Security: The Impact of
       Trade and Technology in South Asia” (editors)      Singh, K (2006): Comment in M. Govinda
       Suresh Chandra Babu and Ashok Gulati.              Rao “Mid-year Review of the Indian Economy
                                                          2005–06, New Delhi, Shipra Publications in
       Sharma, A (co-authored with) Cook, C.C,            association with IIC/ MEAT, pp. 183–189.
       Duncan, T, Jitsuchon, S and Guobao W
       (2005): “Assessing the Impact of Transport and     Venkatesan, R (2005, September): “Charac-
       Energy Infrastructure on Poverty Reduction”,       teristics of the Indian Markets and Market
       Asian Development Bank, Manila.                    Penetration Strategies,” East Asia Economic
                                                          Forum in Seoul in Proceedings Leaps of Asian
       Sharma, A (2005): Paper “Understanding             Economies and Korea’s Future Direction.
       India’s Aggressive and Defensive Stance in
       Agricultural Trade Negotiations” in Les            Venkatesan, R (2005): “India: E-readiness
       Politiques Agricoles Sont-Elles Condamnees         Report for States/ UTs 2004,” Department of
       Par LaMondialisation? (editor) Pierre Rainelli,    Information Technology, Government of
       Institut Francais des Relations Internationales,   India.
       Paris.




  16   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005   2006




PUBLIC AFFAIRS


LECTURE                                       AT:   Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi.
                                              ORGANISER:   Dr D K Pant
JULY 25, 2005: Annual India Policy Forum
Lecture by Dr John Williamson, Institute of   MAY 13, 2005:  First Advisory Committee
International Economics, Washington DC, on    Meeting of the ACIAR-funded project,
“What Follows the Era of the USA as the       “Agricultural Trade Liberalisation and
World’s Growth Engine”                        Domestic Market Reforms in Indian
CHAIR: Dr Bimal Jalan                         Agriculture”
AT: India Habitat Centre, New Delhi.          AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi.
ORGANISER: Mr Suman Bery                      ORGANISER: Dr Rajesh Chadha


CONFERENCES, SEMINARS,                        JUNE 21, 2005:   First Advisory Committee
WORKSHOPS AND SYMPOSIA                        Meeting of the British High Commission-
                                              funded project, “Liberalising Domestic
APRIL 4, 2005: Workshop on Domestic           Agricultural Markets: Gains for India”
Tourism & India’s Tourism Satellite Account   AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi.
AT: India International Centre, New Delhi.    ORGANISER: Dr Rajesh Chadha
ORGANISER: Dr Pradeep Srivastava
                                              JULY 8, 2005: Seminar on “Comprehensive
APRIL 28, 2005 AND JULY 27, 2005: Quarterly   Study to Assess the Genuine Demand and
Review: State of the Economy Seminar          Requirement of SKO”




                                                                     ON THE EVE OF THE INDIA
                                                                     POLICY FORUM THE PRIME
                                                                     MINISTER, DR MANMOHAN
                                                                     SINGH, INVITED THE
                                                                     MEMBERS OF THE IPF
                                                                     ADVISORY AND RESEARCH
                                                                     PANEL FOR TEA AT HIS
                                                                     RESIDENCE, NEW DELHI,
                                                                     JULY 24, 2005




                                                                          ACTIVITIES 2005–06    17
2005   2006




       AT:Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi.           Cross Cultural Programme. The workshop
       ORGANISER: Dr D K Pant                         was inaugurated by Mr Montek Singh
                                                      Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning
       JULY 25–26, 2005: India Policy Forum 2005      Commission.
       AT:India Habitat Centre, New Delhi.            AT: India International Centre, New Delhi.
       ORGANISER: Mr Suman Bery                       ORGANISER: Dr Shashanka Bhide


       AUGUST 9, 2005: Presentation on “The Great     OCTOBER 24, 2005: Policy Research
       Indian Market”                                 Networking: Macroeconomic Management
       AT: PHDCCI, New Delhi.                         and Government Finance
       ORGANISER: Dr R K Shukla                       AT: Assocham House, New Delhi.
                                                      ORGANISER: Dr Kanhaiya Singh
       AUGUST 16, 2005:MISH Workshop
       AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi.          NOVEMBER 11, 2005:   Lecture by Professor
       ORGANISER: Dr R K Shukla                       Kemal Dervis, UNDP Administrator and UN
                                                      Under- Secretary General, on “High Debt
       AUGUST 18, 2005:   India-Bangladesh Trade &    Emerging Market Macroeconomics: Turkey,
       FTA                                            Brazil and other Experiences”
       AT:India International Centre, New Delhi.      AT: Somany Hall, ASSOCHAM House, New
       ORGANISER: Dr Sanjib Pohit                     Delhi.
                                                      ORGANISER: Dr B K Pradhan, jointly with
       SEPTEMBER 28, 2005: Release of India Science   ICRIER and UNDP
       Report by the Prime Minister
       AT: Vigyan Bhavan, New Delhi.                  DECEMBER 1, 2005: The Sources of China’s
       ORGANISER: Dr R K Shukla                       Economic Growth: An OECD Perspective
                                                      AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi.
       OCTOBER 10–11, 2005:   The First workshop on   ORGANISER: Dr Shashanka Bhide
       “Efficiency, Equity and Access in Indian
       Infrastructure: Blending Competition and       DECEMBER 12–13, 2005:    Workshop
       Regulation Project”, co-funded by The          on “Impact of Globalisation on
       European under the EU-India Economic           National Firms: The Case of India and




                                                                              MR KAMAL NATH, MINISTER,
                                                                              COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY,
                                                                              PROF JAGDISH BHAGWATI,
                                                                              COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY,
                                                                              PROF MARTIN FELDSTEIN,
                                                                              HARVARD UNIVERSITY AND
                                                                              NBER, AND MR N.K. SINGH,
                                                                              FORMER MEMBER,
                                                                              PLANNING COMMISSION, AT
                                                                              THE NBER-NCAER
                                                                              NEEMRANA CONFERENCE,
                                                                              NEEMRANA, RAJASTHAN,
                                                                              JANUARY 15–17, 2006




  18   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005    2006




China in a Comparative Perspective”             American counterparts. An informal and off-
AT: India International Centre, New Delhi.      the-record affair allowing free discussions on
ORGANISERS: NCEAR, with Centre de               issues related to economic policy and research
Sciences Humaines, CERNA, London School         covering a range of topics including macro
of Economics and India International Centre.    economy (monetary and fiscal policy),
Co-financed by the European Union under         international trade, banking and finance,
the EU-India SPF Programme.                     privatisation, regulation, economic reforms,
COORDINATION: Dr B K Pradhan                    employment, poverty and the social sector.
                                                AT: Neemrana Fort Palace Resort in Rajasthan
DECEMBER 12–14, 2005: Roundtable                and NCAER, New Delhi.
discussion: “Initiative for Policy Dialogue:    ORGANISERS: Dr Anil Kumar Sharma,
Industrial Policy Taskforce”                    NCAER and Mihir Desai, National Bureau of
AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi.           Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge MA
ORGANISER: Mr Dripto Mukhopadhyay               with administrative support of both
                                                organisations.
DECEMBER 16–18, 2005: Conference on “The
State of the Panchayats and the Way Forward”    JANUARY 15–17, 2006:   Lecture by Professor
AT: Le Meridien Hotel, New Delhi.               Richard Thaler on “Behavioural Economics
ORGANISER: NCAER and Ministry of                and Public Policy: The Libertarian
Panchayati Raj.                                 Paternalism Approach”
COORDINATION: Ms Puja Vasudeva Dutta            AT: Committee Room, NCAER


JANUARY 2, 2006:   Workshop on “Savings and     JANUARY 16, 2006:Workshop on “Database
Investment Behaviour” by Prof. Richard          Development for Karnataka, Uttaranchal and
Thaler, Professor of Behavioural Sciences,      Jharkhand”
Graduate School of Business, Cicago             AT: Le Meridien Hotel, New Delhi.
AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi.           ORGANISER: Dr Anushree Sinha
ORGANISER: Dr Anil Kumar Sharma
                                                MARCH 2, 2006:   Lecture on “Spillovers,
JANUARY 10, 2006:   Workshop on Rural           Coordination Failure and Consequences of
Infrastructure                                  Fragmentation in Rural India” by Prof.
AT: Bangalore, Institute for Social and         Andrew Foster, Brown University, USA.
Economic Change                                 CHAIR: Prof. Kirit S Parikh
ORGANISER: Dr D B Gupta                         AT: Committee Room, NCAER.
                                                ORGANISER: Dr Hari Nagarajan
JANUARY 15–17, 2006:     NBER-NCAER
Seventh Annual Neemrana Conference on the       MARCH 10, 2006:  Dr Klaus Deininger, World
Indian Economy. A collaborative project         Bank, on “Equity and Efficiency Impacts of
between National Bureau of Economic             Rural Land Rental Restrictions: Evidence
Research (NBER) and NCAER and funded            from India”
mainly by the former bringing together Indian   AT: Committee Room, NCAER.
policy makers, researchers, regulators and      ORGANISER: Dr Hari Nagarajan
other professionals to interact with leading




                                                                             ACTIVITIES 2005–06   19
Annualreport 2005
2005    2006




RESEARCH PROGRAMMES*


       Programme                                                       Sponsor
 1.    Quarterly Review of the Economy (M/05/020)                      ANNUAL SUBSCRIBERS
 2.    India Policy Forum* (G/05/009)                                  STATE BANK OF INDIA, TATA SONS,
                                                                       CITIGROUP AND HDFC BANK
 3.    Assessing the Potential for Economic                            SITRA, FINNISH NATIONAL FUND FOR
       Co-operation between India and Finland*                         RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
        (M/05/077)
 4.    Potential and Constraints on India’s Alcoholic                  DIAGEO LIMITED
       Beverages Industry* (M/05/078)
 5.    Development of State- level Macro Database                      BEARING POINT /USAID
       in USAID-REFORM States* (M/05/071)
 6.    India on Development of Indirect tax model                      BEARING POINT /USAID
       Reform Project, USAID (M/05/086)
 7.    Quarterly reports for the Embassy of Japan,                     EMBASSY OF JAPAN, NEW DELHI
       New Delhi* (M/05/67)
 8.    Joint Study Group (JSG): Economic co-                           MINISTRY OF FINANCE, GOVERNMENT
       operation between India and Japan (M/05/076)                     OF INDIA
 9.    Foreign Direct Investment Environment                           MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, TRADE AND
       in India (M/05/083)                                             INDUSTRY (METI) AND JAPAN EXTERNAL
                                                                       TRADE ORGANISATION (JETRO),
                                                                       GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN
10.    Impact of Globalisation on National Firms:                      EUROPEAN UNION (EU)
       The Case of India and China in a Comparative
       Perspective* (M/05/081)
11.    Export Promotion Scheme Replacing Duty                          DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF FOREIGN
       Entitlement Passbook (DEPB) Scheme*                             TRADE, MINISTRY OF COMMERCE
       (I/05/034)
12.    Feasibility Report on establishing a                            MINISTRY OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY,
       Think Tank in the Sultanate of Oman*                            GOVERNMENT OF SULTANATE OF OMAN
       (M/04/061)
13.    Snap Survey of Registered Dealers Under                         DEPARTMENT OF EXCISE AND TAXATION
       CST Act* (I/05/032)                                             (GOVERNMENT OF PUNJAB)
14.    Study of Services to Depositors and Small                       RESERVE BANK OF INDIA
       Borrowers in Rural and Semi Urban Areas
       (S/05/021)

* An asterisk indicates programme/ project completion as on/ before the financial year ending on March 31, 2006.




                                                                                                         ACTIVITIES 2005–06   21
2005   2006




              Programme                                     Sponsor
       15.    Evaluation of Rasoi Ghar* (S/05/016)          HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPORATION
                                                            LIMITED
       16.    Tourism Satellite Account* (M/04/048)         MINISTRY OF TOURISM AND CULTURE
       17.    Study of Macroeconomic Impact of High         PETROFED
              Oil Prices* (M/05/072)
       18.    Impact Assessment of Jan Kerosene             PETROLEUM PLANNING AND ANALYSIS CELL
              Pariyojana (JKP) (M/05/056)                   (PPAC), MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND
                                                            NATURAL GAS
       19.    Comprehensive Study to Assess the             PETROLEUM PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
              Genuine Demand and Requirement of SKO*        CELL (PPAC), MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM
               (M/05/079)                                   AND NATURAL GAS
       20.    Economic Assessment of India-EU Compre-       MINISTRY OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY,
              hensive Economic Engagement* (M/05/082)       GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
       21.    Preparation of User-Friendly Document-        DELHI DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
              Master Plan for Delhi 2021 (H/04/018)
       22.    Economic Assessment of India-                 MINISTRY OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY
              Chile FTA* (M/05/075)
       23.    Policy Research Networking to Strengthen      ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB) AND
              Policy Reforms: Macroeconomic Group*          DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
              (M/03/046)                                    (DEA) MINISTRY OF FINANCE, GOVERNMENT
                                                            OF INDIA
       24.    Assessing an Alternative Medium-term Growth   CONFEDERATION OF INDIAN INDUSTRIES
              Scenario for the Indian Economy* (M/05/066)   (CII)
       25.    Economic Analysis and Forecast of India*      HOCHTIEF AIR PORT GMBH, GERMANY AND
              (M/05/063)                                    ITS PARTNERS PIRAMAL HOLDINGS LTD.
                                                            AND LARSEN AND TOUBRO (L&T) LTD.
       26.    A Research Assignment to prepare a            R&P MANAGEMENT COMMUNICATION
              Commentary for Visa International’s white     PVT. LTD. AND FUNDED BY VISA
              paper entitled Payment Solutions for          INTERNATIONAL
              Modernising Economies* (M/05/055)
       27.    Competitiveness of the Beer Industry in       TECNOVA GLOBAL LTD. FUNDED BY SAB
              Andhra Pradesh* (M/05/053)                    MILLER
       28.    Retainer Relationship with Tecnova*           TECNOVA GLOBAL LTD.
              (M/05/058)
       29.    Study of Beer Industry in India (M/05/080)    SAB-MILLER
       30.    Towards Assessing the Performance of the      DEFENCE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
              Defence Research and Development              ORGANISATION (DRDO), MINISTRY OF
              Organisation (DRDO) Phase I: Framework of     DEFENCE, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
              Analysis (M/05/084)
       31.    Efficiency, Equity and Access in Indian       EU/ECCP
              Infrastructure: Blending Competition and
              Regulation (I/05/035)
       32.    Relevance and Impact of Central Scheme of     NATIONAL COOPERATIVE DEVELOPMENT
              Assistance to Cooperatives for Marketing,     CORPORATION Processing, Storage, etc.




  22   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005    2006




      Programme                                         Sponsor
      Programmes in Comparatively Less Developed
      States/UTs (I/05/038)
33.   Economic Gains of Cargo Movement through          INLAND WATERWAYS AUTHORITY OF INDIA
      Inland Water Transport Mode in National           (MINISTRY OF SHIPPING, GOVERNMENT OF
      Waterways No. 1 * (I/05/036)                      INDIA)
34.   E-Readiness Assessment of States and              DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION
      Union Territories, 2004–05 (I/05/040)             TECHNOLOGY, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
35.   Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Community         NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE, MINISTRY
      Information Centres (CICs) in the North-          OF COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION
      Eastern Region (I/05/039)                         TECHNOLOGY, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
36.   A Study of State Policies Affecting Competition - THE COMPETITION COMMISSION OF INDIA
      Passenger Transport Sector (I/05/037)
37.   Centre for Infrastructure and Regulation          UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT
      (I/01/013)                                        PROGRAMME (UNDP) AND DEPARTMENT OF
                                                    ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE,
                                                    GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
38.   Telecom-Universal Service Obligations         ADMINISTRATOR, UNIVERSAL SERVICE
      (Benchmarking of subsidies) (I/02/019)        OBLIGATION FUND, DEPARTMENT OF
                                                    TELECOMMUNICATIONS, GOVERNMENT
                                                    OF INDIA
39.   Review of Subsidies Drawn from the            ADMINISTRATOR, UNIVERSAL SERVICE
      Universal Service Obligation Fund*            OBLIGATION FUND, DEPARTMENT OF
      (I/05/033)                                    TELECOMMUNICATIONS, GOVERNMENT
                                                     OF INDIA
40.   Comprehensive Study of Demand for             NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR CEMENT AND
      Cement* (M/04/049)                            BUILDING MATERIALS (NCB) AND MINISTRY
                                                    OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, NEW DELHI
41.   Coordination of Uttar Pradesh Development     PLANNING COMMISSION OF INDIA
      Report* (I/04/025)
42.   State Development Report for Uttaranchal      PLANNING COMMISSION OF INDIA
      (M/05/059)
43.   District-wise Export Potential Survey in      MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY, GOVERNMENT
      West Bengal (M/05/065)                        OF WEST BENGAL
44.   An Impact Assessment Study of National        NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY
      Agricultural Technology Project* (M/05/060)   PROJECT, INDIAN COUNCIL OF
                                                    AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH
45.   Liberalising Domestic Agricultural Markets:   BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION, NEW DELHI
      Gains for India (M/05/069)
46.   Agricultural Trade Liberalisation and         AUSTRALIAN CENTRE OF INTERNATIONAL
      Domestic Market Reforms in Indian             AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH (ACIAR),
      Agriculture (M/05/060                         AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT
47.   Exports of Value-added Products from the      AGRICULTURAL AND PROCESSED FOOD
      Agricultural Sector: Impediments and          EXPORT DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
      Strategies for the Future (A/02/005)          (APEDA), NEW DELHI




                                                                              ACTIVITIES 2005–06   23
2005   2006




              Programme                                       Sponsor
       48.    Policy Reforms in the Sugar Sector:             MINISTRY OF FOOD AND CONSUMER
              Implications for the Gur and Khandsari          AFFAIRS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA,
              Industry (A/02/004)                             NEW DELHI
       49.    A study of issues originating from New Draft    MINISTRY OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY,
              Framework Agreement on Agriculture              GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
              (A/05/011)
       50.    Land Market, Land Assets and Rural              DFID-HTS DEVELOPMENT LTD., UK
              Development of India (S/04/013)
       51.    Current Evaluation Study of TPDS                DEPARTMENT OF FOOD AND PUBLIC
              (S/05/022)                                      DISTRIBUTION, GOVT. OF INDIA
       52.    Research for Chronic Poverty Research           CHRONIC POVERTY RESEARCH CENTRE,
              Centre (CPRCI)* (M/05/057)                      INDIAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC
                                                              ADMINISTRATION, NEW DELHI
       53.    Economic Growth and Chronic Poverty             CHRONIC POVERTY RESEARCH CENTRE,
              (M/05/085)                                      INDIAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC
                                                              ADMINISTRATION
       54.    Investigation of the reasons of High Drop-out   DEPARTMENT OF SECONDARY AND HIGHER
              rates in Secondary and Senior Secondary         EDUCATION, MINISTRY OF HUMAN
              Stage in India (H/05/025)                       RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
       55.    Maternal and Child Health (H/03/016)            NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH AND
                                                              HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, MARYLAND, USA
       56.    Parental Education and Child Outcomes           NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH AND
              (H/04/021)                                      HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, MARYLAND, USA
       57.    Health Environment, Economic Development        NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH AND
              (H/03/022)                                      HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, MARYLAND, USA
       58.    Impact of HIV/AIDS on Women and Girl Child      UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT
              and on Industry Sector (H/05/024)               PROGRAMME (UNDP)
       59.    NACO-Socio-economic Impact of HIV/AIDS          UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT
              in India (H/03/017)                             PROGRAMME (UNDP)
       60.    Understanding the Dynamics of Poverty:          IIPA/ CPRC
              Persistent and the Transient (A/03/010)
       61.    A Study Using Household Level Data (S/03/009)   WORLD BANK
       62.    Decentralisation and Pro Poor Growth            HARVARD UNIVERSITY, USA
              in India (S/05/015)
       63.    Consumer Demand Analysis for India*             MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE
              (S/05/020)
       64.    National Survey of Income and Expenditure -     SELF-SPONSORED
              Market Information Survey of Households
              (S/05/018)
       65.    Demand for Cars (S/05/019)                      MARUTI UDYOG LTD.
       66.    India Protection Index (S/05/014)               MAX NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE LTD.
       67.    Indo-Norwegian Programme of Institutional       ROYAL NORWEGIAN EMBASSY, NEW DELHI
              Co-operation (N001)
       68.    Safety Nets and Social Protection in India      THE WORLD BANK
              (H/04/020)



  24   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005    2006




GROWTH, TRADE AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT*


Economy-wide perspectives are important for                       sectors in the context of a global economy.
assessing policy choices. NCAER has a                             What happens if India reduces its trade
tradition of providing assessment of the Indian                   barriers unilaterally? Or when such trade
economy using macroeconomic models. Such                          liberalisation takes place within a multilateral
analysis is supplemented by periodic surveys of                   framework? What are the implications of free
the business sector which track its expectations                  or regional trade agreements? What are the
on output, prices, employment and                                 implications of climate change in a global
investment. Assessment of policies relating to                    context? These are the issues that can be
taxes and subsidies, administered prices,                         examined in a Computable General
exchange rate, capital flows, monetary policy                     Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework.
and public spending in a framework that                           The Council maintains a capability to examine
quantifies the impact of these factors on the                     the trade policy issues both in the CGE
aggregate output and price is made available                      framework as well as other approaches of
through commissioned studies, periodic                            partial equilibrium analysis.
reports and seminars. The Council has also                            A set of monthly and quarterly reports
resumed studying State-level economies again                      disseminate the macroeconomic perspectives
after its initial involvement in this area in the                 from NCAER’s research. MacroTrack, a
1960s.                                                            monthly journal providing insights from
    The Council has three distinct empirical                      analysis of issues relating to agriculture,
models of the Indian economy, to address a                        industry, trade, finance and the overall
range of issues. A short-term macroeconomic                       economy is now in its eighth year of
model incorporating a Social Accounting                           publication. Quarterly Review of the Economy, a
Matrix (SAM) and a set of behavioural                             package of quarterly reports and seminars on
equations such as investment, demand and                          the economy is in operation for well over a
trade has been used to provide short-term                         decade. The quarterly reports constitute a
forecasts and policy analysis. A structural                       comprehensive review of the economy and a
econometric model has been maintained to                          report on the quarterly survey of business
provide estimates of the key macroeconomic                        expectations conducted by the Council. The
parameters such as GDP, inflation rate, fiscal                    “Business Confidence Index” constructed by
balance and external balance over a medium-                       the Council is based on these quarterly
term horizon. One application of the                              surveys.
econometric model has been to assess the                              This analytical capability has been formed
feasibility of sustained high rates of economic                   through active collaborations with the official
growth. The third type of modelling capability                    agencies, scholars and universities in India and
that the Council maintains is that of analysing                   abroad.
resource allocation across the production

* An asterisk indicates programme/ project completion as on/ before the financial year ending on March 31, 2006.




                                                                                                         ACTIVITIES 2005–06   25
2005   2006




       QUARTERLY REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY                     INDIA POLICY FORUM* (G/05/009)
       (M/05/020)                                          SPONSORS:    State Bank of India, Tata Sons,
       SPONSOR : Annual subscribers                        Citigroup and HDFC Bank
           This subscription-based service comprises           The second India Policy Forum (IPF)
       Quarterly Review of the Economy, a quarterly        conference was held at India Habitat Centre,
       Business Expectations Survey (BES), a monthly       New Delhi, on July 25, 2005. Dr John
       newsletter, MacroTrack, and quarterly State of      Williamson, Senior Fellow, Institute of
       the Economy seminars. Quarterly Review of the       International Economics, Washington, DC
       Economy aims at providing assessments on            delivered the second annual IPF lecture on
       macro-economic models, leading indicators,          “What Follows the Era of the USA as the
       and the BES which assesses the economy to           World’s Growth Engine?” The inaugural issue
       generate a Business Confidence Index (BCI).         of the India Policy Forum annual publication,
       MacroTrack provides information and analyses        India Policy Forum 2004, was published in
       on major trends in the economy, industry and        January 2005. The second volume was
       finance. The State of the Economy seminars          published in July 2006.
       comprise presentations by the NCAER team            PROJECT TEAM: SUMAN BERY, SHASHANKA BHIDE
       and commentaries by invited experts.                AND KARTIK VENKATRAMAN
       Subscribers to Quarterly Review and other
       experts also make presentations on specific         ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC
       topics related to the Indian economy. The           COOPERATION BETWEEN INDIA AND
       contents of Quarterly Review are available to       FINLAND* (M/05/077)
       subscribers both electronically as well as in       SPONSOR:    SITRA, Finnish National Fund for
       printed form.                                       Research and Development
       PROJECT TEAM: DEVENDRA KUMAR PANT, RAJESH               In this paper, we look at the potential
       CHADHA, ANIL SHARMA, ANUSHREE SINHA, SANJIB         opportunities for business co-operation
       POHIT, S K N NAIR, KANHAIYA SINGH, SUNIL K SINHA,   between India and Finland. We examine the
       SAURABH BANDYOPADHYAY, KHURSHEED ANWAR              pattern of trade between the two countries,
       SIDDIQUI, DEVENDER PRATAP, SAMBASIVA RAO, RACHNA    examine the growth potential in India and
       SHARMA AND ANJALI TANDON                            provide an assessment of the potential for
       EXPERT COMMENTATORS AT QUARTERLY                    linkages between the two economies.
       REVIEW SEMINARS IN 2005–06:                         PROJECT TEAM: SHASHANKA BHIDE, DRIPTO
       PROF DEEPAK LAL, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, LOS      MUKHOPADHYAY, DIVJOT SINGH, DIVYA KRISHNAN AND

       ANGELES (ULCA)                                      PAWAN KUMAR

       MR K L DATTA, CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN

       RIGHTS                                              POTENTIAL AND CONSTRAINTS ON INDIA’S
       DR RAJIV KUMAR, CONFEDERATION OF INDIAN INDUSTRY    ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES INDUSTRY*
       DR PRONAB SEN, PLANNING COMMISSION                  (M/05/078)
       DR SAUMITRA CHAUDHURI, ICRA LIMITED                 SPONSOR:    Diageo Limited
       SPECIAL PRESENTATIONS                                   This study has examined a number of
       DR M GOVINDA RAO, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC      issues relating to the spirits segment of
       FINANCE AND POLICY                                  alcoholic beverages industry. One of the
       MR P N GUPTA, STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED      important distortions affecting this industry is
       DR NAGESH KUMAR, RIS                                the multiplicity of taxes applied to this sector.




  26   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
2005    2006




The study aims to provide an assessment of the      DEVELOPMENT OF INDIRECT TAX MODEL IN
variations in tax rates applied to this sector in   USAID- REFORM STATES (M/05/086)
different states of the country. The study also     SPONSOR:     Bearing Point / USAID
examines the competitiveness of the domestic            The tax model for the three USAID-
industry in the context of import duties            REFORM States – Karnataka, Jharkhand and
applied to this sector.                             Uttaranchal – should provide a detailed
     The study has pointed to the wide              framework for projecting indirect taxes by year
discrepancy in the estimated quantity of            and analyse the revenue impacts of proposed
production and consumption of alcohol. The          indirect tax policies by creating or changing tax
high taxes lead to evasion, especially when         law parameters to compute the resulting tax
enforcement mechanism is weak. Putting              liability. The model should be flexible enough
together data from various sources, the study       to allow the user to specify alternate tax
places the estimates of India Made Foreign          policies for most indirect taxes and sufficiently
Liquor (IMFL) and Country Liquor                    detailed to provide estimates of VAT.
production/consumption at 7677.2 million            PROJECT TEAM: ANUSHREE SINHA, SHASHANKA
litres during 2005, which means actual              BHIDE, SAURABH BANDYOPADHYAY, PURNA CHANDRA
production and consumption of alcohol, is           PARIDA, POONAM MUNJAL, PRAVEEN SACHDEVA, RAKESH
around 3.5 times the level indicated by the         KUMAR SRIVASTAVA, SUDESH BALA AND SADHANA SINGH
data on State Excise Revenue Statistics.
Clearly, this has serious implications from the     QUARTERLY REPORTS FOR THE EMBASSY OF
revenue angle. While high rates of taxes are        JAPAN, NEW DELHI* (M/05/67)
justified as a means to raise revenue and to        SPONSOR:   Embassy of Japan, New Delhi
reduce consumption of alcohol, both objectives          Developed four quarterly reports for the
seem to be undermined.                              Embassy of Japan. Topics covered: “Value-
PROJECT TEAM: SHASHANKA BHIDE, J S BEDI AND         Added Tax in India – June 2005”; “Funding
L M PANDEY                                          Infrastructure in India” – September 2005”;
                                                    “Supply and Demand of Petroleum Products
DEVELOPMENT OF STATE-LEVEL MACRO                    in India – December 2005”; “India-Singapore
DATABASE IN THE THREE USAID-REFORM                  CECA – March 2006”.
STATES (M/05/071)                                   PROJECT TEAM: RAJESH CHADHA, DEVENDRA KUMAR
SPONSOR:   Bearing Point /USAID                     PANT, ANJALI TANDON AND ABHISHEK AKHOURI
    Proposed a framework for developing
macro-economic databases for the three              JOINT STUDY GROUP (JSG): ECONOMIC
USAID-REFORM States – Karnataka,                    COOPERATION BETWEEN INDIA AND JAPAN
Jharkhand and Uttaranchal. The database was         (M/05/076)
developed in SQL Server 2000 and included           SPONSOR:  Ministry of Finance, Government
both industry and fiscal data sets. The data are    of India
comprehensive enough for the Fiscal Policy          Developed two chapters of the JSG Report on
Analysis Cells (FPACs) in each of these States      “Trade in Goods” and “Trade in Services”.
to formulate comprehensive overviews on their       PROJECT TEAM: SUMAN BERY, RAJESH CHADHA,
respective macro economic conditions.               DEVENDER PRATAP AND ANJALI TANDON

PROJECT TEAM: SHASHANKA BHIDE, ANUSHREE
SINHA, SAURABH BANDYOPADHYAY, PURNA CHANDRA         FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI)
PARIDA, POONAM MUNJAL, PRAVEEN SACHDEVA AND         ENVIRONMENT IN INDIA (M/05/083)
RAKESH KUMAR SRIVASTAVA                             SPONSOR:  Ministry of Economy, Trade and
                                                    Industry (METI) and Japan External Trade




                                                                                   ACTIVITIES 2005–06   27
2005   2006




       Organisation ( JETRO), Government of Japan         cumulative indirect taxes and hence forms the
           Document FDI-related institutions and          basis for the alternative scheme proposed in
       procedures at Central as well as State level       this study.
       (major States to be considered). Document          PROJECT TEAM: R VENKATESAN, M R SALUJA, RUPA
       Indian investment laws and policies covering       MALIK, POONAM MUNJAL AND REETA KRISHNA
       general investment, capital structures,
       performance requirements (including foreign        FEASIBILITY REPORT ON ESTABLISHING A
       exchange balancing) and TRIMS, accounting          THINK TANK IN THE SULTANATE OF OMAN*
       and tax systems, royalty, land ownership,          (M/04/061)
       labour, immigration, and disseminate relevant      SPONSOR:     Ministry of Commerce and
       judicial systems and legislations regulating       Industry, Government of Sultanate of Oman.
       foreign exchange inflow, etc.                          Suggests the vision, mission and activities
       PROJECT TEAM: RAJESH CHADHA, GEETHANJALI           of the proposed think-tank based on
       NATARAJ, ABHISHEK KUMAR, PRIYA NATARAJAN AND       discussions with relevant authorities; evolves a
       SHEFALI RAI                                        proper positioning of the think-tank in the
                                                          overall economic development framework in
       IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION ON NATIONAL                Oman; identifies the type of organisation and
       FIRMS: THE CASE OF INDIA AND CHINA IN A            a suitable structure for the proposed think-
       COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE* (M/05/081)                tank; suggests the composition of the research
       SPONSOR:    European Union (EU)                    team, qualifications and experience of its
           A two-day international workshop on            members, their functioning including the
       “Impact of Globalization on National Firms:        linkages with various ministries in Oman, and,
       The Case of India and China in a                   finally, indicates the funds that would be
       Comparative Perspective” in collaboration          required for establishing such a think-tank.
       with CSH, LSE and IIC was organised and a          Unlike reports by other international agencies
       paper on Indian industry was developed. The        which are generally based on an assessment at
       findings of the paper was presented in the         a particular moment in time, NCAER’s report
       workshop. A paper titled “Statistical analysis     was prepared after prolonged discussions with
       of the evolution of Indian Industry in the post-   various stakeholders. NCAER proposes that
       liberalisation era” was prepared.                  the most appropriate initial institutional
       PROJECT TEAM: BASANTA K PRADHAN, SHALABH K         response would be to create a policy-planning
       SINGH AND BIJAY CHOUHAN                            unit reporting to the Minister which could
                                                          form the nucleus of an independent research
       EXPORT PROMOTION SCHEME REPLACING                  organisation.
       DUTY ENTITLEMENT PASSBOOK (DEPB)                   PROJECT TEAM: R VENKATESAN, RAJESH SHUKLA
       SCHEME* (I/05/034)                                 AND RUPA MALIK
       SPONSOR:   Directorate General of Foreign          PROJECT ADVISOR AND FINAL RECOMMENDA-
       Trade, Ministry of Commerce                        TIONS: SUMAN BERY
           Proposes a new, WTO complaint scheme           PROJECT INITIATION: PRADEEP SRIVASTAVA
       for exporters. The DEPB has been
       countervailed chiefly because there is no nexus    SNAP SURVEY OF REGISTERED DEALERS
       between imported inputs and exports while          UNDER CST ACT* (I/05/032)
       import duties are cited for incentives/            SPONSOR:   Department of Excise and
       reimbursement. Annex II of Agreement on            Taxation, Government of Punjab
       Subsidies and Countervailing Measure                   Estimates sales tax evasion at the macro-
       (ASCM) allows for remission of prior stage         level in Punjab, finds the linkages between




  28   NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
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Annualreport 2005

  • 2. NCAER’s Golden Jubilee: 1956–2006 The NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH (NCAER) was formally inaugurated by the then President of India, Rajendra Prasad, on December 18, 1956. Its creation formed part of a broader effort to strengthen India’s institutional competence in economics. The Council’s original Governing Body included leading figures from both public and private sectors: John Mathai, C.D. Deshmukh, T.T. Krishnamachari, V.T. Krishnamachari, Ashoka Mehta, J.R.D. Tata, John F. Sinclair and N.R. Pillai. Initial financial support was provided by the Ford Foundation which has continued to support the Council over the years. The first Director- General, P.S. Lokanathan, took over the post after serving the Economic Commission for Asia and Far East as its first Secretary-General. The bulk of the Council’s revenue comes from studies done on contract for sponsors in Government, the development community and the private sector. While all studies are managed by NCAER’s senior staff, they are often conducted in partnership with other organisations and individuals, located both in India and abroad. Today, NCAER has links with major policy research institutions and universities outside India including the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge (Mass.), USA; the Brookings Institution, Washington DC; Centre for Economic Policy Research, London; University of Maryland, College Park, MD and the University of Oxford. The NCAER work programme is currently divided into four broad research groupings: • Growth, trade and economic management • Investment climate, physical and economic infrastructure • Agriculture, rural development and resource management • Household behaviour, poverty, human development, informality and gender A broad theme that flows through the Council’s research activities is the progress of India’s economic reform programme and its impact on agriculture, industry and human development. Mr. Suman K. Bery, the current Director-General, assumed charge on January 1, 2001. He was earlier with the World Bank in Washington D.C. where he held a number of positions concerned with economic research and analysis. Between 1992 and 1994, Mr. Bery was based in Mumbai as Special Consultant to the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The theme underpinning of the Golden Jubilee celebration is “The Role of Applied Economic Research in Post-Independence India” and a special volume on this has been commissioned.
  • 3. Annual Report 2005–2006 NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH
  • 4. August 2006 Published by Rajesh Chadha Senior Counsellor [Operations] and Secretary National Council of Applied Economic Research Parisila Bhawan, 11 Indraprastha Estate, New Delhi 110 002 T +91 11 2337 9861–63 F +91 11 2337 0164 E infor@ncaer.org W www.ncaer.org
  • 5. Contents LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS iv THE INSTITUTION THE GOVERNING BODY 1 FOUNDER MEMBERS 2 THE GENERAL BODY 2 DIRECTOR-GENERAL’S REPORT 5 ACTIVITIES 2005–06 PUBLICATIONS 11 PUBLIC AFFAIRS 17 RESEARCH PROGRAMMES 21 GROWTH, TRADE AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT 25 INVESTMENT CLIMATE, PHYSICAL AND ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE 33 AGRICULTURE, RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT 37 HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR, POVERTY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INFORMALITY AND GENDER 41 FINANCES 2005–06 ANNUAL ACCOUNTS 2005–06 47 APPENDIX I: ACTIVITIES OF SENIOR STAFF 67 APPENDIX II: RESOURCES STAFF COMPOSITION 75 LIBRARY 79 COMPUTER CENTRE 81 CONTENTS III
  • 6. Abbreviations/Acronyms ACIAR Australian Centre of International Agricultural Research ADB Asian Development Bank AFMI American Federation of Muslims of Indian Origin AIMA All-India Management Association AoA Agreement on Agriculture APEDA Agricultural and Processed Food Export Development Authority APL Above Poverty Line ARIS Additional Rural Income Survey ASSOCHAM Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry BCI Business Confidence Index BITS Birla Institute of Technology and Science BPL Below Poverty Line CCI Competition Commission of India CDPOs Child Development Project Officers CEAs Committee on Economic Affairs CEPR Centre for Economic Policy Research CGE Computable General Equilibrium CICs Community Information Centres CII Confederation of Indian Industry CPRC Chronic Poverty Research Centre CSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial Research CSO Central Statistical Organisation CUTS Consumer Unity and Trust Society ( Jaipur) DDA Delhi Development Authority DEA Development of Economic Affairs DELs Direct Exchange Lines DEPB Duty Entitlement Pass Book (scheme) DFID Department for International Development (U.K.) DIT Department of Information Technology (Govt. of India) DNA Daily News and Analysis DRDO Defence Research and Development Organisation DWCD Department of Women & Child Development (Govt. of India) ECARES European Centre for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics ECCP Europe- India Cross Cultural Programme EPS Electronic Payment System EU European Union IV NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 7. 2005 2006 FDI Foreign Direct Investment FICCI Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry FPAC Fiscal Policy Analysis Cell FTA Free Trade Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product HDFC Housing Development Finance Corporation HDI Human Development Index HPCL Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited IAMR Institute of Applied Manpower Research IASSI Indian Association of Social Sciences Institutions ICAI Institute of Chartered Accountants of India ICRIER Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations IEG Institute of Economic Growth IMFL India-Made Foreign Liquor INSA Indian National Science Academy (New Delhi) IOT Input-Output Table IPF India Policy Forum IRR Incremental Rate of Return IWT Inland Waterways Transportation JETRO Japan External Trade Organisation JKP Jan Kerosene Pariyojana JSG Joint Study Group LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Govt. of Japan) MISH Market Information Survey of Households NACO National AIDS Control Organisation NARS National Agricultural Research System NAS National Accounts Statistics NATP National Agricultural Technology Project NBER National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, MA, USA) NIC National Informatics Centre NIPFP National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (New Delhi) NORAD Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation NSHIE National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure NSSO National Sample Survey Organisation O&M Organisation & Management OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development ORS Oral Rehydration Solution PDS Public Distribution System PER Poverty and Economic Policy PHDCCI Punjab, Haryana and Delhi Chamber of Commerce and Industry PPAC Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell REDS Rural Economic and Demographic Survey RITES Rail India Technical and Economic Services Ltd. SAM Social Accounting Matrix SANEI South Asia Network of Economic Research Institutes ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS V
  • 8. 2005 2006 SBI State Bank of India SDP State Domestic Product SKO Superior Kerosene Oil TERI Tata Energy and Resources Institute TES Techno-Economic Surveys TRIMs Trade Related Investment Measures TSA Tourism Satellite Account UNDP United Nations Development Programme USAID United States Agency for International Development USOF Universal Service Obligation Fund UT Union Territory VPTs Village Public Telephones WHO World Health Organisation WTO World Trade Organisation VI NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 9. The Institution THE GOVERNING BODY* The Governing Body met four times during 2005–06: on April 11, July 20, November 22, 2005, and March 30, 2006. The General Body met on July 20, 2005. President Bimal Jalan Vice President M.S. Verma Ex-Chairman, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India and State Bank of India Secretary Rajesh Chadha Senior Fellow and Senior Counsellor (Operations) and Secretary Members Shankar N. Acharya Honorary Professor and Member, Board of Governors, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi Isher J. Ahluwalia Chairperson, Board of Governors, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi Mukesh D. Ambani Chairperson, Reliance Industries Ltd., Mumbai Suman K. Bery Director-General, NCAER, New Delhi (ex-officio) Surjit S. Bhalla Managing Director, O(x)us Investments Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi Tarun Das Chief Mentor, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), New Delhi Yogesh C. Deveshwar Chairperson, ITC Ltd., Kolkata Ashok Jha Secretary, Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India (ex-officio) Ashok S. Ganguly Chairperson, ICICI One-Source Ltd., Mumbai K.V. Kamath Managing Director and CEO, ICICI Bank Ltd., Mumbai Naina Lal Kidwai Chief Executive Officer, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, Mumbai Anand G. Mahindra Managing Director and Vice-Chairperson, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., Mumbai R.A. Mashelkar Director-General, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw Chairperson & Managing Director, Biocon India Ltd., Bangalore Rakesh Mohan Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India Rohini Nayyar Ex-Senior Consultant, Planning Commission, New Delhi Deepak S. Parekh Chairperson, Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. (HDFC), Mumbai Rajendra S. Pawar Chairperson, National Institute of Information Technology (NIIT), New Delhi * As on August 1, 2006. THE INSTITUTION 1
  • 10. 2005 2006 FOUNDER MEMBERS J.R.D. Tata John Mathai N.R. Pillai V.T. Krishnamachari C.D. Deshmukh J.F. Sinclair T.T. Krishnamachari Ashoka Mehta THE GENERAL BODY* Life Members Patron Members Subir Gupta Bata India Ltd. S.M. Wahi DCL Polyesters Ltd. D.N. Patodia ICICI Bank Ltd. State Bank of India Special Member New Zealand High Commission, New Delhi Corporate Members 1. A.F. Ferguson & Company 20.Insurance Regulatory and Development 2. Asian Development Bank Authority 3. Associated Chambers of Commerce 21. Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. and Industry 22. Kochi Refineries Ltd. 4. Bank of Baroda 23. Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. 5. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. 24. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 6. Confederation of Indian Industry 25. Mineral and Metal Trading Corporation 7. Central Electricity Regulatory of India Ltd. Commission 26. Murugappa Management Services Ltd. 8. Crompton Greaves Ltd. 27. National Dairy Development Board 9. Eicher Goodearth Ltd. 28. National Mineral Development 10. E.I.D. Parry (India) Ltd. Corporation Ltd. 11. Federation of Indian Chambers of 29. PCP Chemicals Private Ltd. Commerce and Industry 30. Pepsi Foods Private Ltd. 12. V. Malik and Associates, Chartered 31. Population Council for South and Accountants East Asia 13. Godfrey Philips India Limited 32. Punjab National Bank 14. Godrej and Boyce Manufacturing Co. 33. Punjab University Ltd. 34. PHD Chamber of Commerce and 15. Hindalco Industries Ltd. Industry 16. ICI India Limited 35. Rail India Technical and Economic 17. ICRA Ltd. Services Ltd. (RITES) 18. Indian Banks’ Association 36. Sakthi Sugars Ltd. 19. Industrial Development Bank of India 37. Shell India Private Ltd. * As on March 31, 2006. 2 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 11. 2005 2006 38. Standard Chartered Bank 42. Telecom Regulatory Authority of India 39. Tata Consultancy Services 43. Valsad District Co-operative Milk 40. Tata Iron and Steel Company Ltd. Production Union 41. Tata Power Company Ltd. 44. XLO India Ltd. Ordinary Members 1. D.R. Agarwal 6. EPW Research Foundation 2. M. Balasubramaniam 7. Global Business Park 3. Birla Institute of Technology and Science 8. Vikram Kumar (BITS) 9. Martin and Harris Pvt. Ltd. 4. Central Leather Research Institute 10. Rajan S. Talekar 5. R.T. Doshi Number of Members March 31, 2005 March 31, 2006 Corporate members paying Rs. 5,000/- per annum 48 44 Ordinary members paying Rs. 500/- per annum 13 10 Patron members paying a one-time subscription of Rs. 1 lakh 4 4 Special members paying a one-time subscription of Rs. 1 lakh 1 1 Total 66 59 Total fees received Rs. 2,40, 000 Rs. 2, 25, 000 THE INSTITUTION 3
  • 12. THE FIRST PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA, PANDIT JAWAHARLAL NEHRU, LAYING THE FOUNDATION STONE OF THE COUNCIL'S BUILDING IN 1959 THE NCAER’S FOUNDATION STONE IN ITS GOLDEN JUBILEE CELEBRATION YEAR
  • 13. Director-General’s Report THE GOLDEN JUBILEE pattern has endured through the five 2006–07 is being commemorated as NCAER’s intervening decades; even today, 50 years later, Golden Jubilee. Preparing for these revenue from projects (and seminars) accounts celebrations has stimulated a valuable review of for some 90 per cent of our total revenue of the origins and purposes of the Council. It has Rs. 11.5 crore. also prompted an assessment in the Governing The NCAER of 2006 remains true to the Body and among the senior staff of what has vision of its founders; we continue to believe endured, what has changed, and how to keep that diversified support is the best guarantee of the Council relevant to serve India in the both accountability and independence. Yet coming decades. experience has shown that high reliance on I am happy to say that the tradition of wide project revenue alone creates difficulties in support from government, industry, and building and retaining capacity. Accordingly, academia for NCAER continues, as a glance at since the early 1990s, my predecessors and I the composition of the current Governing have aimed to supplement project revenue Body will indicate. I am particularly grateful with corpus (and other untied grant income) for the exceptional support that has been to provide a necessary anchor for sustaining provided by the President, Dr. Bimal Jalan, the capacity and building scale in the Council’s Vice-President, Mr. M.S. Verma, and others in activities. the Governing Body in planning and Under the McKinsey-led review of the implementing our Golden Jubilee activities. Council in 2001, it was suggested that we I feel honoured and privileged to be the should aim for at least 30 per cent of our work Director-General of the Council at this to be endowment-supported. In reviewing past important milestone. It coincides with the Annual Reports, I find that this was also a start of my second term, and I am grateful to target enunciated in 1996 by my immediate the members of the Governing Body for their predecessor, Dr. Rakesh Mohan. This remains continued trust in me. a benchmark toward which we continue to While the Council was provided a work, both in raising our endowment and handsome initial grant of both money and improving its management. Accordingly, as land by the Ford Foundation and the part of the Golden Jubilee effort, we are taking Government, there was concern from the a fresh look at our investment policies, as per outset to establish and to preserve the regulations applicable to non-profit intellectual independence of the Council, as organisations. well as to ensure the practical orientation of Two other long-standing characteristics of the Council’s work programme. the Council are its capacity for large-scale Accordingly, it was expected that the data-collection and its relatively large size. Council would be substantially financed I am indebted to my illustrious predecessor, through fees for its analyses and advice. This Dr. I.Z. Bhatty, for his recollections on how DIRECTOR-GENERAL’S REPORT 5
  • 14. 2005 2006 these features came to be. He points out that symbolises the cordial, professional the Council was created at the start of the relationship that the NCAER and the NSSO Second Five-Year Plan, which was India’s first have established over the years. serious effort at planned development. The These initial studies helped NCAER need to plan imposed a burden on the States establish a capacity for organising large-scale for which they were unprepared. The result surveys with greater flexibility than was was a series of techno-economic surveys possible for the NSSO, while respecting (TES) for individual States undertaken by the academic standards for management of both newly-formed NCAER. Because the TES had sampling and non-sampling errors. This to be done for all States in a hurry, the size of capacity has been used over the years to the Council enlarged rather rapidly. provide fundamental information in areas as NCAER’s subsequent entry into the area diverse as the dairy sector, household of large-scale household surveys further consumption of energy, the fertiliser sector and determined the Council’s scale. In the 1950s the like. A landmark study in the early 1970s and 1960s, the fundamental development task was the multi-round Additional Rural Income was to raise the investment rate. Sustainable Survey (ARIS) designed to capture the impact financing entailed a corresponding rise in of the Green Revolution on rural welfare. domestic savings. At the time, there was no Follow-up surveys of the same households reliable information on household incomes periodically over the next 35 years (including a and savings at the national level, especially in round currently being collected) have provided respect of rural households. NCAER’s all- a matchless longitudinal resource for India surveys provided some of the earliest understanding rural development and direct estimates of household incomes, savings economic change over the bulk of the and consumption, and helped to establish the Council’s existence. Council’s capacity for large-scale household A glance at the Annual Reports from as far surveys, which has been one of its hallmarks back as the early 1960s shows much continuity over the years. NCAER was a pioneer in the with the Council’s work today. The continued field leading the way for subsequent official focus on savings and consumption has already exercises by the Reserve Bank of India and been noted, but there was an equally strong others. focus on infrastructure and energy which Given the preference of the Government’s continues. A large number of studies National Sample Survey Organisation forecasting demand for consumer goods find (NSSO) to collect information on their echo in our ongoing work on consumer consumption rather than income, such markets. The array of sponsors as between systematic information as exists on income Government, private sector and international (and income distribution) in India, particularly bodies is also quite similar to today. rural India, has in general been generated As I indicated in last year’s message, our through NCAER’s various surveys over the international contacts are, at present, extremely years. Indeed, in some ways we have returned vibrant. It is instructive to find that there was a to our roots as the current round of the Market steady stream of international academics even Information Survey of Households (MISH) in the early 1960s. Indeed, in certain other has been extended to provide fuller data on respects such as revenue from publications and household incomes than in the past. I am staff training and development, the Council of grateful to Dr. N.S. Sastry, former Director- the early 1960s was perhaps even more General of the NSSO for his expertise and advanced than that of today. wise counsel in assisting us in this matter. This In sum, the NCAER today is a continuing 6 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 15. 2005 2006 testament to the energy and foresight of a Office (CSO). The NCAER’s methodology diverse group of leaders in a young nation who and sample design for capturing domestic had a belief in the importance of empirical travel was hailed by the World Tourism analysis as a basis for sound decisions in both Organisation as a model for other developing the public and private spheres. It was a vision countries. born of the confidence that India was destined NCAER was requested by the Ministry of to be a serious and important nation in the Petroleum and Natural Gas to undertake a world, which deserved institutions of this major study of household distribution of stature. It is fortunate that the Council’s Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO). SKO is an Golden Jubilee is taking place at a moment important household fuel used for both when India’s horizons seem limitless and when lighting and heating. It is provided through confidence is once again widespread. Our the public distribution system (PDS) at below Golden Jubilee celebrations are accordingly an market prices by the Union Government, with opportunity to salute the vision of our the ultimate responsibility for distribution and predecessors, to acknowledge the continuing pricing resting with State Governments. The validity of the model they created, and to NCAER’s study provided estimates of the upgrade our capacity to be of service to the reach of the PDS, State taxation of SKO, the nation in the exciting times that lie ahead. differences among States in organising the distribution of kerosene, and of the apparent Academic Highlights diversion of household kerosene to other uses. The Council’s capacity for large-scale data Innovative and sensitive field work was collection was demonstrated in many contexts also required in our project for the National in 2004–05. We were honoured by the Prime AIDS Control Organisation (NACO), Minister’s launch of the India Science Report supported by NCAER’s long-standing partner commissioned by the India National Science the UNDP, to measure the socioeconomic Academy (INSA) in a ceremony at Vigyan impact of HIV-AIDS in the six high- Bhavan. I would like to thank our Governing prevalence States of India. The study team had Body Member, Dr. R.A. Mashelkar, current to grapple with difficult issues of President of INSA, for providing this visibility confidentiality and sensitivity to gather this to our work. information which has generated a very In his remarks at the launch, and in important data set on the subject. subsequent statements, the Prime Minister has As mentioned earlier, Dr. N.S. Sastry, repeatedly referred to the findings of the study, formerly of the NSSO, has kindly assisted the particularly on the declining interest in science NCAER in an appraisal of its field-work and studies as students enter higher classes. These data dissemination activities, with a view to results were based on a large survey designed making them more robust and transparent. We by NCAER’s staff in consultation with INSA, are indebted to him for his advice. which drew upon international best practice in There was considerable activity on a range science surveys. of other fronts as well. We were approached by Earlier, work to capture data on domestic the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of the tourism led to a further assignment from the Sultanate of Oman for advice on setting up a Ministry of Tourism to assemble India’s first policy research cell within the Ministry. It is “Domestic Satellite Accounts” – an exercise striking to note that this form of advisory work coordinated by NCAER with advisory input was anticipated and provided for in the by a broad range of statistical agencies original memorandum of association of the including the RBI and the Central Statistical NCAER! DIRECTOR-GENERAL’S REPORT 7
  • 16. 2005 2006 Our own partnerships, international and position of Finance Officer till late in the year, domestic, have continued to flourish, with we retained Messrs. Ajay Sethi Associates as regular joint activities with the National financial advisors to ensure the integrity of our Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), The internal systems, and of our compliance with Brookings Institution, and the Australia-India statutory functions. I would like to repeat my Council, documented elsewhere in the report. thanks to our Vice-President, Mr. Verma, for We deepened our cooperation on the considerable time and interest he expends infrastructure and regulation with a in advising us on these matters. consortium of three European institutions, led The financial outcome revealed in the by the Centre for Economic Policy Research accounts reflects continued productivity (CEPR), London and supported by the improvement, in that there has been a large European Union Mission to India under the increase in both gross and net project revenues Europe-India Cross Cultural Programme (net of payment to professionals and (ECCP). The grant permitted original papers survey/data gathering) with no increase in staff to be commissioned on issues in infrastructure salaries and allowances. A glance at the regulation and on public-private partnerships. staffing composition table shows that the latter We were honoured that Montek Singh reflects continued (though slowing) reduction Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of the Planning in the size of our regular research staff, Commission, participated in the launch complemented by a fluctuating body of non- workshop for this event. Extensive data regular research staff. As in previous years let gathering and clearing continues on important me salute all the Council’s staff, research and household data sets in cooperation with the support, regular and adhoc for their Universities of Maryland, Harvard and Brown. professionalism, dedication and hard work. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the The long-term trend has also been continued support of the Ministry of positive. We have shed much of the excess Commerce, which has been extremely capacity that perhaps existed on the research generous in involving NCAER in policy- side, and we have been able to re-orient our oriented work connected with many aspects of salary outgo once to payments linked to India’s trade policy and trade negotiations. individual and corporate performance. Review Their sustained interest has encouraged us to of our overhead expenses suggests that the increase our capacity in this area. I was overhead “load” per project threatens to make personally privileged to participate as a us uncompetitive, and that we may need to member of the Indo-Japan Joint Study Group, expand our portfolio of projects to reduce this chaired by the Secretary Economic Affairs, load. Accordingly, we followed a more Shri Ashok Jha, a member of our Governing systematic approach to recruitment of Body. researchers this year. The results were not entirely commensurate with the effort, and we Management and Finances will need to work even harder to attract talent Considerable effort was devoted to a range of appropriate to our reputation and aspirations. management initiatives over the year. While progress is being made, it is slower than we Looking Forward would wish. Project accounting, management Over the course of the past few years NCAER of receivables, crystallisation of liabilities, has developed and upgraded a number of statutory compliance, contract management channels for dissemination of research on the and financing of capital assets all received Indian economy. These include the suite of attention. As there remained a vacancy in the products connected with the Quarterly Review 8 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 17. 2005 2006 of the Economy (Business Expectation Survey, site to provide a spectrum of data and views on MacroTrack, the Quarterly Review of the the Indian economy. In the earlier part of this Economy report itself ); Artha Suchi; Margin; Report I focused on the continuity in our the India Policy Forum; and Connexions. work; these are some of our fresh departures. Several of these are peer – reviewed and are I believe they remain consistent with our core designed to provide an arena for empirical purpose and mandate: to bring data and debate on policy issues facing the Indian analysis to bear, in a neutral and professional economy. This bouquet of print offerings will way, to the challenge of India’s economic be complemented with our redesigned web- development as it evolves. DIRECTOR-GENERAL’S REPORT 9
  • 18. THE PRESIDENT, DR BIMAL JALAN, DELIVERING A SPEECH ON THE OCCASION OF THE NCAER GOLDEN JUBILEE CELEBRATION EVENT AT NCAER, NEW DELHI, MARCH 30, 2006 GOVERNING BODY MEMBERS AT A GET- TOGETHER WITH NCAER STAFF MEMBERS ON THE NCAER LAWNS ON THE OCCASION OF THE NCAER GOLDEN JUBILEE CELEBRATION EVENT AT NCAER, NEW DELHI, MARCH 30, 2006
  • 19. Activities 2005-06 PUBLICATIONS* BOOKS these items – by income as well as occupation groups – in different cities as well as States. The Great Indian Market: Results from the In addition, The Great Indian Market NCAER Market Information Survey of introduces various new analyses. For example, Households it includes a consumption matrix that shows (2005, NCAER AND BUSINESS STANDARD, PP. 284) the relationship between purchases of different Since 1985–86, consumer durables. Such questions are at the NCAER has been heart of any marketing campaign, and the conducting the product matrix helps arrive at useful answers. Market Information Another first is the move toward consumption Survey of House- of services, such as data on the demand for life holds (MISH) in a and medical insurance, credit and debit cards broadly comparable and mobile phones. and consistent The Great Indian Market also attempts to framework. The measure the market for second-hand goods, report stems from an and how this differs in the case of different annual all-India NCAER survey of 300,000 durables, for different income/occupation households over 515 cities and 400 districts. groups, and between rural and urban areas. It While the focus of the MISH surveys has captures the prices paid for both new as well as traditionally been ownership and purchase of second-hand goods by various income/ manufactured goods (consumer durables and occupation groups. consumables), they are also distinctive in PRINCIPAL NCAER STAFF: RAJESH SHUKLA, asking the respondent households about their SANJAY KUMAR DWIVEDI, ASHA SHARMA AND CHARU household income. JAIN WITH ASSISTANCE FROM SUNIL JAIN OF BUSINESS This is a comprehensive report on what the STANDARD Indian consumer is buying and how the pattern is projected to change by the end of the India’s Telecommunications Industry: decade by examining the interaction between History, Analysis, Diagnosis rising household income levels and evolving (ASHOK V. DESAI, 2006, SAGE (INDIA) LTD., PP. 294) consumer preferences. It provides demand This study was commissioned by NCAER’s trends for 20 categories of durable goods and Centre for Infrastructure and Regulation to seven of consumer goods from actual provide an independent account of the consumption in 1995–96 to projections for political economy of reforms in the telecom 2009–10 and details of who is purchasing sector, so as to draw lessons for reform in other * Research programme and study output of the NCAER researchers published prior to August 1, 2006 in the form of books, reports, journals, research papers and articles by NCAER as well as by other prestigious global and Indian publishing houses. NCAER publications/ periodicals are available by direct/ email order, through subscription/ online order at the NCAER web site: www.ncaer.org or publ@ncaer.org ACTIVITIES 2005–06 11
  • 20. 2005 2006 regulated sectors. In various States/Union addition to the Territories and to author’s analysis, the assess its demand by volume is noteworthy different types of for detailed ration cards and pla- appendices that chart ces of residence; con- the evaluation of the sumption and usage sector over the last pattern of consumers two decades. and leakage. It fore- PRINCIPAL NCAER casts the demand for STAFF: SUMAN BERY AND SKN NAIR kerosene and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and establishes correlations, if any, between the Social Accounting Matrix for India: requirement of kerosene and release of new Concepts, Construction and Applications LPG connections. The study found that the (2006, SAGE (INDIA) LTD., PP. 438) per capita allocation of PDS kerosene is biased This book presents a towards richer States and there is no set new Social pattern of allocation to different types of cards. Accounting Matrix PRINCIPAL NCAER STAFF: DEVENDRA KUMAR (SAM) for the PANT, SHASHANKA BHIDE, P K ROY, S K DWIVEDI, Indian economy for R K JAISWAL AND SHISHIR SHEKHAR the year 1997–98. It provides detailed and SERIALS consistent infor- mation on produc- India Policy Forum 2005–06 (Volume 2) tion for 60 sectors, (Annual) and on income distribution for six categories (2006, NCAER AND THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, of occupational households, separately for WASHINGTON DC, SAGE (INDIA) LTD., PP. 308 rural and urban areas. Using fresh figures, the SUMAN BERY, BARRY BOSWORTH, AND ARVIND authors also present the SAM for 2002–03. In PANAGARIYA (EDS.) addition, this book goes into details of the India Policy Forum concepts, methodology and limitations of the (IPF) is an annual construction of SAM for India. This book will publication dedicated be very useful for researchers who are working to analysing contem- in the area of input-output analysis, SAM and porary trends in the Computable General Equilibrium Modelling Indian economy. Its for India. objective is to carry PRINCIPAL NCAER STAFF: BASANTA K PRADHAN, theoretically rigorous M R SALUJA AND SHALABH K SINGH yet empirically in- formed research on current issues relating to REPORTS India’s economic policy. A joint publication of NCAER and Brookings, IPF serves as a forum Comprehensive Study to Assess the for a global network of scholars interested in Genuine Demand and Requirement of SKO India’s economic transformation. (2005, NCAER, PP. 172) Contributor Highlights A study on distribution of kerosene through • Willem H. Buiter and Urjit R. Patel on “Fiscal the Public Distribution System (PDS) by Deficits, the Financial Sector, and Growth” 12 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 21. 2005 2006 • M. Govinda Rao and R. Kavita Rao on “Tax Policy and provides a forum for Tax Reform” well-known scholars, • Sheetal K. Chand and Kanhaiya Singh on “Inflation civil servants and Targeting” journalists to • Surjit S. Bhalla and Tirthatanmoy Das on “Labor comment on public Markets” affairs, while also • Roger G. Noll and Scott J. Wallsten on “Universal serving as a vehicle Service Obligation in Telecommunications” for dissemination of research at the SUBSCRIPTION PRODUCTS Council. Contributor Highlights Quarterly Review of the Economy • Chadha, R. and Sharma, Pooja (2005). “Liberalising (NCAER, QUARTERLY PUBLICATION Indian agriculture.” 37 (3), Apr.-June. COORDINATOR: DEVENDRA KUMAR PANT • Chadha, R. Pratap, Devender, Sharma, Pooja, & Designed to meet the Tandon, Anjali (2005). “Indian textiles: weaving a needs of policy success story.” 37 (4), July-Sept. makers, corporates • Pant, Devendra Kumar, Jaiswal, Rajesh, and and others interested Shekhar, Shishir (2005). “Household kerosene in tracking the latest consumption patterns.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec. developments in the • Rao, Ch. Sambasiva (2005). “Information and Indian economy, communication.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec. Quarterly Review • Arora, G.K. (2005). “The making of a statesman.” provides an analysis 38 (1), Oct.-Dec. of current policies • Asher, Mukul and Vasudevan, Deepa (2005). “The and tracks developments in the domestic and role of pension regulators.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec. world economy. NCAER growth forecasts are • Chandra Mohan, N. (2005). “Stepping up FDI into objective and widely quoted in Indian and India.” 37 (3), Apr.-June. international media. The subscribers to • Chari, P.R. (2005). “Indo-US nuclear Deal.” 37 (4), Quarterly Review also receive a copy of July-Sept. detailed report on NCAER’s quarterly Business • Jain, Sunil (2005). “The war for the regulator’s Expectations Survey. An integral part of heart.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec. Quarterly Review is its quarterly “State of the • Manas Chakrvarty (2005). “Global liquidity and Economy” seminars organised at NCAER, emerging markets.” 37 (3), Apr.-June. bringing together policy makers, industry • Mehta, Pradeep S. and Pranav Kumar (2005). “The leaders and researchers on to a single platform. post-Hong Kong scenario.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec. • Subrahmanya, M.H. Bala, (2005). “SSI energy con- Margin (Quarterly) sumption economics in Karnataka.” 37 (4), July-Sept. (NCAER, ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION INCLUDING POSTAGE, • Yue-Wei Hu. (2005). “Private (occupational) pensions RS 500/ US $ 100) in China.” 38 (1), Oct.-Dec. VOLUME 37, NUMBER 3, 4 AND VOLUME 38, NUMBER 1, 2 EDITOR: T C A SRINIVASA-RAGHAVAN Artha Suchi (Quarterly) Margin’s emphasis on policy analysis and (NCAER, ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION, INCLUDING POSTAGE, application of modern quantitative techniques RS. 300/ US$ 80) in developmental issues brings forth research VOLUME 22, NUMBER 3, 4 AND VOLUME 23, NUMBER 1, 2 findings in broad areas of applied economics, EDITOR: N J SEBASTIAN ACTIVITIES 2005–06 13
  • 22. 2005 2006 A computerised PARTICIPATING INSTITUTIONS index of government NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH reports/journal (NCAER) articles/newspaper CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH (CEPR), write-ups related to LONDON the Indian economy, INSTITUTE D’ECONOMIE INDUSTRIELLE (IDEI), TOULOUSE brought out by the EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED RESEARCH IN NCAER Library. ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS (ECARES), BRUSSELLS The Newsletter is intended to provide news MacroTrack (Monthly) and analysis relating to the infrastructure (NCAER, ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION, INCLUDING POSTAGE, sector. Issues relating to regulation and RS. 3,000/US $100) competition in the sector will be given special VOLUME 7, NUMBER 4 TO VOLUME 8, NUMBER 3 (12 ISSUES) attention. The Newsletter also provides an EDITOR: DEVENDRA KUMAR PANT opportunity to participating researchers to Information and report on the work carried out in the project. research-based analysis on major OTHER PUBLICATIONS trends in the economy, industry, Bandyopadhyay, S (2006): “Cotton Textile and finance. Industry in India: Implications for MFA Supplementary Phaseout” in Beyond the Transition Phase of analysis, based on WTO, Academic Foundation, Delhi. NCAER’s Business Expectations Survey Bedi, J.S (December 2005): “General Statistics (BES) and the NCAER Macroeconomic for Food Processing Sector, 2005” – Databank Forecast are also included. Each issue carries book, Ministry of Food Processing, statistics on major States, based on current Government of India. issues of economic importance. Bhide, S, Chadha, R and Kalirajan, K (2005, Connexions (Quarterly) December): “Growth Interdependence among (NCAER, FREE) Indian States: An Exploration”, Asia-Pacific VOLUME 1, NUMBER 1 TO VOLUME 2, NUMBER 2 (THREE ISSUES) Development Journal, Vol. 12, No. 2. EDITOR: SHASHANKA BHIDE “Efficiency, equity Bhide, S, Rajaraman I and Pattnaik R.K and access in Indian (2005, October): “A Study of Debt Infrastructure: blend- Sustainability at State level in India”, Reserve ing competition and Bank of India, Mumbai. regulation” (Project co-funded by The Bhide, S and Mehta, A.K (2006): “Correlates European Union of Incidence and Exit from Chronic Poverty in under the “University Rural India: Evidence from Panel Data”, and Studies” dimen- Chronic Poverty & Development Policy in India, sion of the EU-India edited by Aasha Kapur Mehta and Andrew Economic Cross-Cultural Programme). Shepherd, Sage Publications. 14 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 23. 2005 2006 Buragohain, T (2005, October): “Level of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in Awareness of RTI/STI and HIV/AIDS, and Health and Family Welfare Sector in India”, Gender Discrimination in Treatment in Working Paper No. 97 NCAER. India”, published in a special international conference volume titled Engendering Health Pohit, S (2005, December): “Mitigating and Human Rights. Carbon Emission through Economic Instruments: An Indian Perspective, 2005”, Chadha, R (2005): “FTAs and Doha Working Paper No. 96, NCAER. Development Round: Asian Response to EEU and FTAA”, Global Economy Journal, 5(4), Pohit, S (2005, July): “Trade Facilitation Berkeley Electronic Press. Problems & Informalisation of Trade: Lesson from India-Bangladesh Trade”, proceedings of Chadha, R (2005, Oct-Dec): “Sectoral the International Seminar on Indo-Bangladesh Initiatives: A Paradoxical Component of Border Trade: Status & Prospects, North Eastern NAMA!”, Trading Up, 1(3), Centre for Trade Hill University, Shillong. and Development, OXFAM GB, New Delhi. Pohit, S (2006, January): “WTO Agreement Dubey, A, Palmer-Jones, Richard and Sen, K on Agriculture, Liberalisation in Select (2006, March): “Surplus Labour, Social Struc- Countries, and Implications for South Asia: A ture and Rural to Urban Migration: Evidence CGE Modelling Analysis,” proceedings of the from Indian Data”, European Journal of Deve- International Conference on International Trade, lopment Research, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 89–107. Jadavpur University, Kolkata. Dubey, A and Gupta, N.D (2006, January): Pradhan, B.K and Amarendra, A (2006): “The “Fertility and the Household’s Economic Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Household Status: a Natural Experiment using Indian Welfare and Poverty in India,” MPIA Micro Data”, Journal of Development Studies, Working Paper 2006–01, Poverty and Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 110–138. Economic Policy (PEP) Network, (http://132.203.59.36/NEW-PEP/Group/ Dubey, A and Haan, A (2005, May): “Orissa: papers/papers/MPIA-2006 – 01.pdf ). Poverty, Disparities or the Development of Under-development?”, Economic and Political Shariff, A and Razzak, A (2006): “Communal Weekly, pp. 2321–29. Relations and Social Integration in India,” Social Development Report, Oxford University Kaur, R (2005, Oct-Dec): “Indian Punjab: Press. Social Regulation of Rice Production,” South Asian Journal, Vol. 10, pp. 94–101. Shariff, A (2006): “Some Thoughts on Nature and Persistence of Poverty in India,” in Kumar, P, Pradhan, B.K and Subramanian, A Deprivation and Inclusive Development, (2005, December): “Farmland Prices in a (editors) Diwakar, D.M and Mishra, G.P, Developing Economy: Some Stylised Facts Manak Publications: pp. 295–335. and Determinants,” Journal of International and Area Studies, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 93–113. Shariff, A and Mondal, S.K (2006): “User Fee in Public Health Care Institutions Mondal, S.K and Kanwal, V (2006, March): Security: Health for All Dimensions “Addressing Key Issues in the Light of and Challenges” (editors) Sujata Prasad and ACTIVITIES 2005–06 15
  • 24. 2005 2006 C. Sathyamala, Institute of Human Singh, K. and Bery, S.K (2005): “India’s Development. Growth Experience”, in (editors) Wanda Tseng and David Cowen India’s and China’s Shariff, A (2006): “Household Food and Recent Experience with Reform and Growth, Nutrition Security in India, Economic IMF and Palgrave-Macmillan, pp. 23–58. Reforms and Food Security: The Impact of Trade and Technology in South Asia” (editors) Singh, K (2006): Comment in M. Govinda Suresh Chandra Babu and Ashok Gulati. Rao “Mid-year Review of the Indian Economy 2005–06, New Delhi, Shipra Publications in Sharma, A (co-authored with) Cook, C.C, association with IIC/ MEAT, pp. 183–189. Duncan, T, Jitsuchon, S and Guobao W (2005): “Assessing the Impact of Transport and Venkatesan, R (2005, September): “Charac- Energy Infrastructure on Poverty Reduction”, teristics of the Indian Markets and Market Asian Development Bank, Manila. Penetration Strategies,” East Asia Economic Forum in Seoul in Proceedings Leaps of Asian Sharma, A (2005): Paper “Understanding Economies and Korea’s Future Direction. India’s Aggressive and Defensive Stance in Agricultural Trade Negotiations” in Les Venkatesan, R (2005): “India: E-readiness Politiques Agricoles Sont-Elles Condamnees Report for States/ UTs 2004,” Department of Par LaMondialisation? (editor) Pierre Rainelli, Information Technology, Government of Institut Francais des Relations Internationales, India. Paris. 16 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 25. 2005 2006 PUBLIC AFFAIRS LECTURE AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi. ORGANISER: Dr D K Pant JULY 25, 2005: Annual India Policy Forum Lecture by Dr John Williamson, Institute of MAY 13, 2005: First Advisory Committee International Economics, Washington DC, on Meeting of the ACIAR-funded project, “What Follows the Era of the USA as the “Agricultural Trade Liberalisation and World’s Growth Engine” Domestic Market Reforms in Indian CHAIR: Dr Bimal Jalan Agriculture” AT: India Habitat Centre, New Delhi. AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi. ORGANISER: Mr Suman Bery ORGANISER: Dr Rajesh Chadha CONFERENCES, SEMINARS, JUNE 21, 2005: First Advisory Committee WORKSHOPS AND SYMPOSIA Meeting of the British High Commission- funded project, “Liberalising Domestic APRIL 4, 2005: Workshop on Domestic Agricultural Markets: Gains for India” Tourism & India’s Tourism Satellite Account AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi. AT: India International Centre, New Delhi. ORGANISER: Dr Rajesh Chadha ORGANISER: Dr Pradeep Srivastava JULY 8, 2005: Seminar on “Comprehensive APRIL 28, 2005 AND JULY 27, 2005: Quarterly Study to Assess the Genuine Demand and Review: State of the Economy Seminar Requirement of SKO” ON THE EVE OF THE INDIA POLICY FORUM THE PRIME MINISTER, DR MANMOHAN SINGH, INVITED THE MEMBERS OF THE IPF ADVISORY AND RESEARCH PANEL FOR TEA AT HIS RESIDENCE, NEW DELHI, JULY 24, 2005 ACTIVITIES 2005–06 17
  • 26. 2005 2006 AT:Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi. Cross Cultural Programme. The workshop ORGANISER: Dr D K Pant was inaugurated by Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning JULY 25–26, 2005: India Policy Forum 2005 Commission. AT:India Habitat Centre, New Delhi. AT: India International Centre, New Delhi. ORGANISER: Mr Suman Bery ORGANISER: Dr Shashanka Bhide AUGUST 9, 2005: Presentation on “The Great OCTOBER 24, 2005: Policy Research Indian Market” Networking: Macroeconomic Management AT: PHDCCI, New Delhi. and Government Finance ORGANISER: Dr R K Shukla AT: Assocham House, New Delhi. ORGANISER: Dr Kanhaiya Singh AUGUST 16, 2005:MISH Workshop AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi. NOVEMBER 11, 2005: Lecture by Professor ORGANISER: Dr R K Shukla Kemal Dervis, UNDP Administrator and UN Under- Secretary General, on “High Debt AUGUST 18, 2005: India-Bangladesh Trade & Emerging Market Macroeconomics: Turkey, FTA Brazil and other Experiences” AT:India International Centre, New Delhi. AT: Somany Hall, ASSOCHAM House, New ORGANISER: Dr Sanjib Pohit Delhi. ORGANISER: Dr B K Pradhan, jointly with SEPTEMBER 28, 2005: Release of India Science ICRIER and UNDP Report by the Prime Minister AT: Vigyan Bhavan, New Delhi. DECEMBER 1, 2005: The Sources of China’s ORGANISER: Dr R K Shukla Economic Growth: An OECD Perspective AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi. OCTOBER 10–11, 2005: The First workshop on ORGANISER: Dr Shashanka Bhide “Efficiency, Equity and Access in Indian Infrastructure: Blending Competition and DECEMBER 12–13, 2005: Workshop Regulation Project”, co-funded by The on “Impact of Globalisation on European under the EU-India Economic National Firms: The Case of India and MR KAMAL NATH, MINISTER, COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, PROF JAGDISH BHAGWATI, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, PROF MARTIN FELDSTEIN, HARVARD UNIVERSITY AND NBER, AND MR N.K. SINGH, FORMER MEMBER, PLANNING COMMISSION, AT THE NBER-NCAER NEEMRANA CONFERENCE, NEEMRANA, RAJASTHAN, JANUARY 15–17, 2006 18 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 27. 2005 2006 China in a Comparative Perspective” American counterparts. An informal and off- AT: India International Centre, New Delhi. the-record affair allowing free discussions on ORGANISERS: NCEAR, with Centre de issues related to economic policy and research Sciences Humaines, CERNA, London School covering a range of topics including macro of Economics and India International Centre. economy (monetary and fiscal policy), Co-financed by the European Union under international trade, banking and finance, the EU-India SPF Programme. privatisation, regulation, economic reforms, COORDINATION: Dr B K Pradhan employment, poverty and the social sector. AT: Neemrana Fort Palace Resort in Rajasthan DECEMBER 12–14, 2005: Roundtable and NCAER, New Delhi. discussion: “Initiative for Policy Dialogue: ORGANISERS: Dr Anil Kumar Sharma, Industrial Policy Taskforce” NCAER and Mihir Desai, National Bureau of AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi. Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge MA ORGANISER: Mr Dripto Mukhopadhyay with administrative support of both organisations. DECEMBER 16–18, 2005: Conference on “The State of the Panchayats and the Way Forward” JANUARY 15–17, 2006: Lecture by Professor AT: Le Meridien Hotel, New Delhi. Richard Thaler on “Behavioural Economics ORGANISER: NCAER and Ministry of and Public Policy: The Libertarian Panchayati Raj. Paternalism Approach” COORDINATION: Ms Puja Vasudeva Dutta AT: Committee Room, NCAER JANUARY 2, 2006: Workshop on “Savings and JANUARY 16, 2006:Workshop on “Database Investment Behaviour” by Prof. Richard Development for Karnataka, Uttaranchal and Thaler, Professor of Behavioural Sciences, Jharkhand” Graduate School of Business, Cicago AT: Le Meridien Hotel, New Delhi. AT: Committee Room, NCAER, New Delhi. ORGANISER: Dr Anushree Sinha ORGANISER: Dr Anil Kumar Sharma MARCH 2, 2006: Lecture on “Spillovers, JANUARY 10, 2006: Workshop on Rural Coordination Failure and Consequences of Infrastructure Fragmentation in Rural India” by Prof. AT: Bangalore, Institute for Social and Andrew Foster, Brown University, USA. Economic Change CHAIR: Prof. Kirit S Parikh ORGANISER: Dr D B Gupta AT: Committee Room, NCAER. ORGANISER: Dr Hari Nagarajan JANUARY 15–17, 2006: NBER-NCAER Seventh Annual Neemrana Conference on the MARCH 10, 2006: Dr Klaus Deininger, World Indian Economy. A collaborative project Bank, on “Equity and Efficiency Impacts of between National Bureau of Economic Rural Land Rental Restrictions: Evidence Research (NBER) and NCAER and funded from India” mainly by the former bringing together Indian AT: Committee Room, NCAER. policy makers, researchers, regulators and ORGANISER: Dr Hari Nagarajan other professionals to interact with leading ACTIVITIES 2005–06 19
  • 29. 2005 2006 RESEARCH PROGRAMMES* Programme Sponsor 1. Quarterly Review of the Economy (M/05/020) ANNUAL SUBSCRIBERS 2. India Policy Forum* (G/05/009) STATE BANK OF INDIA, TATA SONS, CITIGROUP AND HDFC BANK 3. Assessing the Potential for Economic SITRA, FINNISH NATIONAL FUND FOR Co-operation between India and Finland* RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (M/05/077) 4. Potential and Constraints on India’s Alcoholic DIAGEO LIMITED Beverages Industry* (M/05/078) 5. Development of State- level Macro Database BEARING POINT /USAID in USAID-REFORM States* (M/05/071) 6. India on Development of Indirect tax model BEARING POINT /USAID Reform Project, USAID (M/05/086) 7. Quarterly reports for the Embassy of Japan, EMBASSY OF JAPAN, NEW DELHI New Delhi* (M/05/67) 8. Joint Study Group (JSG): Economic co- MINISTRY OF FINANCE, GOVERNMENT operation between India and Japan (M/05/076) OF INDIA 9. Foreign Direct Investment Environment MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, TRADE AND in India (M/05/083) INDUSTRY (METI) AND JAPAN EXTERNAL TRADE ORGANISATION (JETRO), GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN 10. Impact of Globalisation on National Firms: EUROPEAN UNION (EU) The Case of India and China in a Comparative Perspective* (M/05/081) 11. Export Promotion Scheme Replacing Duty DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF FOREIGN Entitlement Passbook (DEPB) Scheme* TRADE, MINISTRY OF COMMERCE (I/05/034) 12. Feasibility Report on establishing a MINISTRY OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, Think Tank in the Sultanate of Oman* GOVERNMENT OF SULTANATE OF OMAN (M/04/061) 13. Snap Survey of Registered Dealers Under DEPARTMENT OF EXCISE AND TAXATION CST Act* (I/05/032) (GOVERNMENT OF PUNJAB) 14. Study of Services to Depositors and Small RESERVE BANK OF INDIA Borrowers in Rural and Semi Urban Areas (S/05/021) * An asterisk indicates programme/ project completion as on/ before the financial year ending on March 31, 2006. ACTIVITIES 2005–06 21
  • 30. 2005 2006 Programme Sponsor 15. Evaluation of Rasoi Ghar* (S/05/016) HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPORATION LIMITED 16. Tourism Satellite Account* (M/04/048) MINISTRY OF TOURISM AND CULTURE 17. Study of Macroeconomic Impact of High PETROFED Oil Prices* (M/05/072) 18. Impact Assessment of Jan Kerosene PETROLEUM PLANNING AND ANALYSIS CELL Pariyojana (JKP) (M/05/056) (PPAC), MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS 19. Comprehensive Study to Assess the PETROLEUM PLANNING AND ANALYSIS Genuine Demand and Requirement of SKO* CELL (PPAC), MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM (M/05/079) AND NATURAL GAS 20. Economic Assessment of India-EU Compre- MINISTRY OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, hensive Economic Engagement* (M/05/082) GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 21. Preparation of User-Friendly Document- DELHI DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY Master Plan for Delhi 2021 (H/04/018) 22. Economic Assessment of India- MINISTRY OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY Chile FTA* (M/05/075) 23. Policy Research Networking to Strengthen ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB) AND Policy Reforms: Macroeconomic Group* DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS (M/03/046) (DEA) MINISTRY OF FINANCE, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 24. Assessing an Alternative Medium-term Growth CONFEDERATION OF INDIAN INDUSTRIES Scenario for the Indian Economy* (M/05/066) (CII) 25. Economic Analysis and Forecast of India* HOCHTIEF AIR PORT GMBH, GERMANY AND (M/05/063) ITS PARTNERS PIRAMAL HOLDINGS LTD. AND LARSEN AND TOUBRO (L&T) LTD. 26. A Research Assignment to prepare a R&P MANAGEMENT COMMUNICATION Commentary for Visa International’s white PVT. LTD. AND FUNDED BY VISA paper entitled Payment Solutions for INTERNATIONAL Modernising Economies* (M/05/055) 27. Competitiveness of the Beer Industry in TECNOVA GLOBAL LTD. FUNDED BY SAB Andhra Pradesh* (M/05/053) MILLER 28. Retainer Relationship with Tecnova* TECNOVA GLOBAL LTD. (M/05/058) 29. Study of Beer Industry in India (M/05/080) SAB-MILLER 30. Towards Assessing the Performance of the DEFENCE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Defence Research and Development ORGANISATION (DRDO), MINISTRY OF Organisation (DRDO) Phase I: Framework of DEFENCE, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA Analysis (M/05/084) 31. Efficiency, Equity and Access in Indian EU/ECCP Infrastructure: Blending Competition and Regulation (I/05/035) 32. Relevance and Impact of Central Scheme of NATIONAL COOPERATIVE DEVELOPMENT Assistance to Cooperatives for Marketing, CORPORATION Processing, Storage, etc. 22 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 31. 2005 2006 Programme Sponsor Programmes in Comparatively Less Developed States/UTs (I/05/038) 33. Economic Gains of Cargo Movement through INLAND WATERWAYS AUTHORITY OF INDIA Inland Water Transport Mode in National (MINISTRY OF SHIPPING, GOVERNMENT OF Waterways No. 1 * (I/05/036) INDIA) 34. E-Readiness Assessment of States and DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION Union Territories, 2004–05 (I/05/040) TECHNOLOGY, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 35. Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Community NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE, MINISTRY Information Centres (CICs) in the North- OF COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION Eastern Region (I/05/039) TECHNOLOGY, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 36. A Study of State Policies Affecting Competition - THE COMPETITION COMMISSION OF INDIA Passenger Transport Sector (I/05/037) 37. Centre for Infrastructure and Regulation UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT (I/01/013) PROGRAMME (UNDP) AND DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 38. Telecom-Universal Service Obligations ADMINISTRATOR, UNIVERSAL SERVICE (Benchmarking of subsidies) (I/02/019) OBLIGATION FUND, DEPARTMENT OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 39. Review of Subsidies Drawn from the ADMINISTRATOR, UNIVERSAL SERVICE Universal Service Obligation Fund* OBLIGATION FUND, DEPARTMENT OF (I/05/033) TELECOMMUNICATIONS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 40. Comprehensive Study of Demand for NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR CEMENT AND Cement* (M/04/049) BUILDING MATERIALS (NCB) AND MINISTRY OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, NEW DELHI 41. Coordination of Uttar Pradesh Development PLANNING COMMISSION OF INDIA Report* (I/04/025) 42. State Development Report for Uttaranchal PLANNING COMMISSION OF INDIA (M/05/059) 43. District-wise Export Potential Survey in MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY, GOVERNMENT West Bengal (M/05/065) OF WEST BENGAL 44. An Impact Assessment Study of National NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY Agricultural Technology Project* (M/05/060) PROJECT, INDIAN COUNCIL OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH 45. Liberalising Domestic Agricultural Markets: BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION, NEW DELHI Gains for India (M/05/069) 46. Agricultural Trade Liberalisation and AUSTRALIAN CENTRE OF INTERNATIONAL Domestic Market Reforms in Indian AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH (ACIAR), Agriculture (M/05/060 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT 47. Exports of Value-added Products from the AGRICULTURAL AND PROCESSED FOOD Agricultural Sector: Impediments and EXPORT DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY Strategies for the Future (A/02/005) (APEDA), NEW DELHI ACTIVITIES 2005–06 23
  • 32. 2005 2006 Programme Sponsor 48. Policy Reforms in the Sugar Sector: MINISTRY OF FOOD AND CONSUMER Implications for the Gur and Khandsari AFFAIRS, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA, Industry (A/02/004) NEW DELHI 49. A study of issues originating from New Draft MINISTRY OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, Framework Agreement on Agriculture GOVERNMENT OF INDIA (A/05/011) 50. Land Market, Land Assets and Rural DFID-HTS DEVELOPMENT LTD., UK Development of India (S/04/013) 51. Current Evaluation Study of TPDS DEPARTMENT OF FOOD AND PUBLIC (S/05/022) DISTRIBUTION, GOVT. OF INDIA 52. Research for Chronic Poverty Research CHRONIC POVERTY RESEARCH CENTRE, Centre (CPRCI)* (M/05/057) INDIAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, NEW DELHI 53. Economic Growth and Chronic Poverty CHRONIC POVERTY RESEARCH CENTRE, (M/05/085) INDIAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 54. Investigation of the reasons of High Drop-out DEPARTMENT OF SECONDARY AND HIGHER rates in Secondary and Senior Secondary EDUCATION, MINISTRY OF HUMAN Stage in India (H/05/025) RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT 55. Maternal and Child Health (H/03/016) NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, MARYLAND, USA 56. Parental Education and Child Outcomes NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH AND (H/04/021) HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, MARYLAND, USA 57. Health Environment, Economic Development NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH AND (H/03/022) HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, MARYLAND, USA 58. Impact of HIV/AIDS on Women and Girl Child UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT and on Industry Sector (H/05/024) PROGRAMME (UNDP) 59. NACO-Socio-economic Impact of HIV/AIDS UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT in India (H/03/017) PROGRAMME (UNDP) 60. Understanding the Dynamics of Poverty: IIPA/ CPRC Persistent and the Transient (A/03/010) 61. A Study Using Household Level Data (S/03/009) WORLD BANK 62. Decentralisation and Pro Poor Growth HARVARD UNIVERSITY, USA in India (S/05/015) 63. Consumer Demand Analysis for India* MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE (S/05/020) 64. National Survey of Income and Expenditure - SELF-SPONSORED Market Information Survey of Households (S/05/018) 65. Demand for Cars (S/05/019) MARUTI UDYOG LTD. 66. India Protection Index (S/05/014) MAX NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE LTD. 67. Indo-Norwegian Programme of Institutional ROYAL NORWEGIAN EMBASSY, NEW DELHI Co-operation (N001) 68. Safety Nets and Social Protection in India THE WORLD BANK (H/04/020) 24 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 33. 2005 2006 GROWTH, TRADE AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT* Economy-wide perspectives are important for sectors in the context of a global economy. assessing policy choices. NCAER has a What happens if India reduces its trade tradition of providing assessment of the Indian barriers unilaterally? Or when such trade economy using macroeconomic models. Such liberalisation takes place within a multilateral analysis is supplemented by periodic surveys of framework? What are the implications of free the business sector which track its expectations or regional trade agreements? What are the on output, prices, employment and implications of climate change in a global investment. Assessment of policies relating to context? These are the issues that can be taxes and subsidies, administered prices, examined in a Computable General exchange rate, capital flows, monetary policy Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework. and public spending in a framework that The Council maintains a capability to examine quantifies the impact of these factors on the the trade policy issues both in the CGE aggregate output and price is made available framework as well as other approaches of through commissioned studies, periodic partial equilibrium analysis. reports and seminars. The Council has also A set of monthly and quarterly reports resumed studying State-level economies again disseminate the macroeconomic perspectives after its initial involvement in this area in the from NCAER’s research. MacroTrack, a 1960s. monthly journal providing insights from The Council has three distinct empirical analysis of issues relating to agriculture, models of the Indian economy, to address a industry, trade, finance and the overall range of issues. A short-term macroeconomic economy is now in its eighth year of model incorporating a Social Accounting publication. Quarterly Review of the Economy, a Matrix (SAM) and a set of behavioural package of quarterly reports and seminars on equations such as investment, demand and the economy is in operation for well over a trade has been used to provide short-term decade. The quarterly reports constitute a forecasts and policy analysis. A structural comprehensive review of the economy and a econometric model has been maintained to report on the quarterly survey of business provide estimates of the key macroeconomic expectations conducted by the Council. The parameters such as GDP, inflation rate, fiscal “Business Confidence Index” constructed by balance and external balance over a medium- the Council is based on these quarterly term horizon. One application of the surveys. econometric model has been to assess the This analytical capability has been formed feasibility of sustained high rates of economic through active collaborations with the official growth. The third type of modelling capability agencies, scholars and universities in India and that the Council maintains is that of analysing abroad. resource allocation across the production * An asterisk indicates programme/ project completion as on/ before the financial year ending on March 31, 2006. ACTIVITIES 2005–06 25
  • 34. 2005 2006 QUARTERLY REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY INDIA POLICY FORUM* (G/05/009) (M/05/020) SPONSORS: State Bank of India, Tata Sons, SPONSOR : Annual subscribers Citigroup and HDFC Bank This subscription-based service comprises The second India Policy Forum (IPF) Quarterly Review of the Economy, a quarterly conference was held at India Habitat Centre, Business Expectations Survey (BES), a monthly New Delhi, on July 25, 2005. Dr John newsletter, MacroTrack, and quarterly State of Williamson, Senior Fellow, Institute of the Economy seminars. Quarterly Review of the International Economics, Washington, DC Economy aims at providing assessments on delivered the second annual IPF lecture on macro-economic models, leading indicators, “What Follows the Era of the USA as the and the BES which assesses the economy to World’s Growth Engine?” The inaugural issue generate a Business Confidence Index (BCI). of the India Policy Forum annual publication, MacroTrack provides information and analyses India Policy Forum 2004, was published in on major trends in the economy, industry and January 2005. The second volume was finance. The State of the Economy seminars published in July 2006. comprise presentations by the NCAER team PROJECT TEAM: SUMAN BERY, SHASHANKA BHIDE and commentaries by invited experts. AND KARTIK VENKATRAMAN Subscribers to Quarterly Review and other experts also make presentations on specific ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC topics related to the Indian economy. The COOPERATION BETWEEN INDIA AND contents of Quarterly Review are available to FINLAND* (M/05/077) subscribers both electronically as well as in SPONSOR: SITRA, Finnish National Fund for printed form. Research and Development PROJECT TEAM: DEVENDRA KUMAR PANT, RAJESH In this paper, we look at the potential CHADHA, ANIL SHARMA, ANUSHREE SINHA, SANJIB opportunities for business co-operation POHIT, S K N NAIR, KANHAIYA SINGH, SUNIL K SINHA, between India and Finland. We examine the SAURABH BANDYOPADHYAY, KHURSHEED ANWAR pattern of trade between the two countries, SIDDIQUI, DEVENDER PRATAP, SAMBASIVA RAO, RACHNA examine the growth potential in India and SHARMA AND ANJALI TANDON provide an assessment of the potential for EXPERT COMMENTATORS AT QUARTERLY linkages between the two economies. REVIEW SEMINARS IN 2005–06: PROJECT TEAM: SHASHANKA BHIDE, DRIPTO PROF DEEPAK LAL, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, LOS MUKHOPADHYAY, DIVJOT SINGH, DIVYA KRISHNAN AND ANGELES (ULCA) PAWAN KUMAR MR K L DATTA, CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN RIGHTS POTENTIAL AND CONSTRAINTS ON INDIA’S DR RAJIV KUMAR, CONFEDERATION OF INDIAN INDUSTRY ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES INDUSTRY* DR PRONAB SEN, PLANNING COMMISSION (M/05/078) DR SAUMITRA CHAUDHURI, ICRA LIMITED SPONSOR: Diageo Limited SPECIAL PRESENTATIONS This study has examined a number of DR M GOVINDA RAO, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC issues relating to the spirits segment of FINANCE AND POLICY alcoholic beverages industry. One of the MR P N GUPTA, STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED important distortions affecting this industry is DR NAGESH KUMAR, RIS the multiplicity of taxes applied to this sector. 26 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006
  • 35. 2005 2006 The study aims to provide an assessment of the DEVELOPMENT OF INDIRECT TAX MODEL IN variations in tax rates applied to this sector in USAID- REFORM STATES (M/05/086) different states of the country. The study also SPONSOR: Bearing Point / USAID examines the competitiveness of the domestic The tax model for the three USAID- industry in the context of import duties REFORM States – Karnataka, Jharkhand and applied to this sector. Uttaranchal – should provide a detailed The study has pointed to the wide framework for projecting indirect taxes by year discrepancy in the estimated quantity of and analyse the revenue impacts of proposed production and consumption of alcohol. The indirect tax policies by creating or changing tax high taxes lead to evasion, especially when law parameters to compute the resulting tax enforcement mechanism is weak. Putting liability. The model should be flexible enough together data from various sources, the study to allow the user to specify alternate tax places the estimates of India Made Foreign policies for most indirect taxes and sufficiently Liquor (IMFL) and Country Liquor detailed to provide estimates of VAT. production/consumption at 7677.2 million PROJECT TEAM: ANUSHREE SINHA, SHASHANKA litres during 2005, which means actual BHIDE, SAURABH BANDYOPADHYAY, PURNA CHANDRA production and consumption of alcohol, is PARIDA, POONAM MUNJAL, PRAVEEN SACHDEVA, RAKESH around 3.5 times the level indicated by the KUMAR SRIVASTAVA, SUDESH BALA AND SADHANA SINGH data on State Excise Revenue Statistics. Clearly, this has serious implications from the QUARTERLY REPORTS FOR THE EMBASSY OF revenue angle. While high rates of taxes are JAPAN, NEW DELHI* (M/05/67) justified as a means to raise revenue and to SPONSOR: Embassy of Japan, New Delhi reduce consumption of alcohol, both objectives Developed four quarterly reports for the seem to be undermined. Embassy of Japan. Topics covered: “Value- PROJECT TEAM: SHASHANKA BHIDE, J S BEDI AND Added Tax in India – June 2005”; “Funding L M PANDEY Infrastructure in India” – September 2005”; “Supply and Demand of Petroleum Products DEVELOPMENT OF STATE-LEVEL MACRO in India – December 2005”; “India-Singapore DATABASE IN THE THREE USAID-REFORM CECA – March 2006”. STATES (M/05/071) PROJECT TEAM: RAJESH CHADHA, DEVENDRA KUMAR SPONSOR: Bearing Point /USAID PANT, ANJALI TANDON AND ABHISHEK AKHOURI Proposed a framework for developing macro-economic databases for the three JOINT STUDY GROUP (JSG): ECONOMIC USAID-REFORM States – Karnataka, COOPERATION BETWEEN INDIA AND JAPAN Jharkhand and Uttaranchal. The database was (M/05/076) developed in SQL Server 2000 and included SPONSOR: Ministry of Finance, Government both industry and fiscal data sets. The data are of India comprehensive enough for the Fiscal Policy Developed two chapters of the JSG Report on Analysis Cells (FPACs) in each of these States “Trade in Goods” and “Trade in Services”. to formulate comprehensive overviews on their PROJECT TEAM: SUMAN BERY, RAJESH CHADHA, respective macro economic conditions. DEVENDER PRATAP AND ANJALI TANDON PROJECT TEAM: SHASHANKA BHIDE, ANUSHREE SINHA, SAURABH BANDYOPADHYAY, PURNA CHANDRA FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) PARIDA, POONAM MUNJAL, PRAVEEN SACHDEVA AND ENVIRONMENT IN INDIA (M/05/083) RAKESH KUMAR SRIVASTAVA SPONSOR: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and Japan External Trade ACTIVITIES 2005–06 27
  • 36. 2005 2006 Organisation ( JETRO), Government of Japan cumulative indirect taxes and hence forms the Document FDI-related institutions and basis for the alternative scheme proposed in procedures at Central as well as State level this study. (major States to be considered). Document PROJECT TEAM: R VENKATESAN, M R SALUJA, RUPA Indian investment laws and policies covering MALIK, POONAM MUNJAL AND REETA KRISHNA general investment, capital structures, performance requirements (including foreign FEASIBILITY REPORT ON ESTABLISHING A exchange balancing) and TRIMS, accounting THINK TANK IN THE SULTANATE OF OMAN* and tax systems, royalty, land ownership, (M/04/061) labour, immigration, and disseminate relevant SPONSOR: Ministry of Commerce and judicial systems and legislations regulating Industry, Government of Sultanate of Oman. foreign exchange inflow, etc. Suggests the vision, mission and activities PROJECT TEAM: RAJESH CHADHA, GEETHANJALI of the proposed think-tank based on NATARAJ, ABHISHEK KUMAR, PRIYA NATARAJAN AND discussions with relevant authorities; evolves a SHEFALI RAI proper positioning of the think-tank in the overall economic development framework in IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION ON NATIONAL Oman; identifies the type of organisation and FIRMS: THE CASE OF INDIA AND CHINA IN A a suitable structure for the proposed think- COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE* (M/05/081) tank; suggests the composition of the research SPONSOR: European Union (EU) team, qualifications and experience of its A two-day international workshop on members, their functioning including the “Impact of Globalization on National Firms: linkages with various ministries in Oman, and, The Case of India and China in a finally, indicates the funds that would be Comparative Perspective” in collaboration required for establishing such a think-tank. with CSH, LSE and IIC was organised and a Unlike reports by other international agencies paper on Indian industry was developed. The which are generally based on an assessment at findings of the paper was presented in the a particular moment in time, NCAER’s report workshop. A paper titled “Statistical analysis was prepared after prolonged discussions with of the evolution of Indian Industry in the post- various stakeholders. NCAER proposes that liberalisation era” was prepared. the most appropriate initial institutional PROJECT TEAM: BASANTA K PRADHAN, SHALABH K response would be to create a policy-planning SINGH AND BIJAY CHOUHAN unit reporting to the Minister which could form the nucleus of an independent research EXPORT PROMOTION SCHEME REPLACING organisation. DUTY ENTITLEMENT PASSBOOK (DEPB) PROJECT TEAM: R VENKATESAN, RAJESH SHUKLA SCHEME* (I/05/034) AND RUPA MALIK SPONSOR: Directorate General of Foreign PROJECT ADVISOR AND FINAL RECOMMENDA- Trade, Ministry of Commerce TIONS: SUMAN BERY Proposes a new, WTO complaint scheme PROJECT INITIATION: PRADEEP SRIVASTAVA for exporters. The DEPB has been countervailed chiefly because there is no nexus SNAP SURVEY OF REGISTERED DEALERS between imported inputs and exports while UNDER CST ACT* (I/05/032) import duties are cited for incentives/ SPONSOR: Department of Excise and reimbursement. Annex II of Agreement on Taxation, Government of Punjab Subsidies and Countervailing Measure Estimates sales tax evasion at the macro- (ASCM) allows for remission of prior stage level in Punjab, finds the linkages between 28 NCAER ANNUAL REPORT 2005–2006