2. Energy scenario
Alternative images of how the future
might unfold and are an appropriate tool
with which to analyze how driving
forces may influence future emission
outcomes and to assess the associated
uncertainties
3. Top Scenarios
• Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and beyond, Energy
Data Center, WEC
• World Energy Outlook 2004 (to be published on
October 26, 2004)
• International Energy Agency
• International Energy Outlook 2004, EIA, US
Department of Energy
• Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to
2050 Shell Scenarios
• World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook
2030, EC
4. Past
•Use natural form of energy
• Wood used as fire
•Then fossil fuel start form
• Transportation industry
• Domestic purpose
•Other energy production
•Nuclear power, hydral power
etc
11. Effect of fossil fuel
Due fossil fuel burning human being are
suffering from different diseases
• Asthma
• Lung infection
• Respiratory disease
• cancer
13. Three hard truths about energy
supply
In our future and also now a days
1) Change in energy use
2) struggle to keep rate
3) Environmental stresses
14. Change in energy use
• Demand pressures will stimulate
more efficiency in energy use
Efficient transport
Efficient industry
Efficient buildings
Efficient appliances
21. struggle to keep rate
• In 2015 -25
• growth rate not equals to
demand rate
• Alternative resources use
• Mostly biological(Less env.
Impacts )
• For a short time economic
shock( developing countries)
22. Environmental stresses
• If it possible to maintain
current share of fossil
fuel then pollution
increases
• More diseases
• Many sensitive
Ecosystem destroy
23. • World population has more than
doubled since 1950 and is set to
increase by 40% by 2050
• . Population and GDP will grow
strongly in non-OECD countries and
China and India are just starting their
journey on the energy ladder.
26. Preparing for future
• governments and companies are
positioning for longer-term alternatives
• new infrastructures build
• CSS (carbon dioxide capture and storage )
• older inefficient ones need to be
decommissioned.
27. • Awareness in public sectors is more
• Laws for environment. Degradations
• Strike rules on fossil fuel use and
other degrading energy units
29. The 6°C Scenario (6DS)
By 2050, energy use almost doubles
(compared with 2009) and total GHG
emissions rise even more.
In the absence of efforts to stabilize
atmospheric concentrations of
GHGs, average global temperature rise
is projected to be at least 6°C in the long
term.
The 6DS is broadly consistent with the
World Energy Outlook Current Policy
Scenario through 2035.
30.
31. The 4°C Scenario (4DS)
• recent pledges made by countries to limit
emissions
• limit emissions and step up efforts to improve
energy efficiency.
• Projecting a long-term temperature rise of
4°C.
• an ambitious scenario that requires
significant changes in policy
and technologies.
• capping the temperature increase at 4°C
requires significant additional cuts in
emissions in the period after 2050.
32. The 2°C Scenario (2DS)
• This is a very aggressive target.
• 80% chance of limiting average
global temperature increase to 2°C.
• cutting energy-related CO2 emissions
by more than half in 2050 (compared
with 2009).
• the goal can only be achieved
provided that CO2 and GHG
emissions in non-energy sectors are
also reduced.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37. Four broad energy scenarios
1.
2.
3.
4.
Techno-explosion
Techno-stability
Energy descent
Collapse
38. Techno-explosion:
depends on new, large and
concentrated energy sources
allows the continual growth in
material wealth
generally associated with space
travel to colonize other planets.
39. Techno-stability
depends on a seem less conversion
from material growth based on depleting
energy
to a steady state in consumption of
resources
and population
all based on novel use of renewable
energies
and technologies
40. ENERGY DESCENT
a reduction of economic
activity, complexity and population
reason is depletion of fossil fuels
less consumption of energy and
resources
importance of biological resources
like fossil fuels
Forests will regain their traditional
status as symbol of wealth
41. COLLAPSE
Failure of the whole range of
interlocked systems that maintain and
support industrial society
High quality fossil fuels are depleted
Damaged the ecosystem
it would inevitably involve a major
“die-off” of human population and loss
of knowledge and infrastructure
needed for industrialization
