2. Arcadia Alive - Philosophy
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Ultimately it is people that make the difference
People and Performance in Parallel
Everyone deserves an inspirational teacher and can grow
We achieve more through collaboration
In the modern economy most work is about mental effort
It is our conscious and subconscious thoughts that drive behaviour
Most “training” is a waste of time because it does not change behaviour
We blend two disciplines; Psychology and Management to support people in delivering sustainable and
measurable behavioural change
“If you always do what you have always done
you will always get what you have always got”
The right support at the right time to the right people enabling them
to optimise their performance
Arcadia Alive is a Behavioural Change & Human Factor
Consultancy
4. Why do Managers Make Bad Decisions?
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Initial Impressions
Justifying past decisions
Seeing what you want to see
Being Influenced by Problem Framing
Overconfidence
Perpetuating the Status Quo
…………………………….
5. Common Errors in our Thinking
Catastrophic
jumping to worst possible conclusion
Black and white
thinking in extremes all or nothing
Over generalising
using words like ‘always’ and ‘never’
Fortune Telling
predicting the future instead of waiting to see what happens
Mind reading
jumping to conclusions about what people are thinking
Mental filtering
focusing on the negative and overlooking the positive
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6. Common Errors in our Thinking
Disqualifying the positive
discounting or twisting positives into negatives
Labelling
globally putting yourself down as a failure, or useless, or …
Emotional reasoning
listen to much to negative feelings rather than objective facts
Personalising
taking events or someone’s behaviour too personally
Demanding
using words like ‘should’, ‘must’, ‘ought’ and ‘have to’
Low frustration tolerance
telling yourself something is ‘to difficult’ or ‘unbearable’
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7. Risk Perception
Human perception of risk is not very accurate
Three big factors
Familiarity – if we think we know a lot about the hazard
because we are often exposed to the hazard we often
underestimate the degree of risk
Voluntary or not – when we voluntarily take a risk, we
usually underestimate the chances of being hurt
Attention – how much attention a hazard brings if it hurts
someone. More attention is perceived as greater risk
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8. Reasons for Violation
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There’s nothing wrong with it
Do not see their infringements as wrong or dangerous
Everyone does it
Explain their behaviour by saying that they are simply doing what everyone
else does
They really expect us to do it
Often people feel themselves in a double bind. They are told not to break
the rules, but they are expected to get the job done quickly
I can’t help myself
The temptation to bend or break rules is irresistible
(Reason et al)
9. Reasons for Violation
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Illusion of control
Overestimating the extent to which they can govern risky situations
Illusion of invulnerability
Underestimate the chances that their rule breaking will lead to bad outcomes
Illusion of superiority
Believe themselves to be more skilled than others
Do not regard their tendencies to violate as being worse than others
(Reason et al)
11. M
aj
o
r
Minor
Near Miss
M
aj
or
Minor
Near Miss
Personal Risk Management
• Rushing
• Frustration
• Fatigue
• Complacency
• Eyes Not on Task
• Mind Not on Task
• Line of Fire
• Balance, Traction,
Grip
STATES ERRORS LESS RISK MORE RISK
(Causes) (Which causes) (To Become)
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(Gary Higbee)
12. Risk Management - Business Objective
Primary Business Objective of a Train Care Depot:
Deliver a safe reliable trains
Meeting daily plan
Meeting Level 4 maintenance plan
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13. # Hazard to achieving business objective Likely hood Consequenc
e
Risk Index
1 Instability in the work plan 5 5 25
2 Changing Priorities 5 5 25
3 Multiple source of demand 5 5 25
4 Lack of single plan 5 5 25
5 Understanding of limitations and constraints 5 5 25
6 Maintenance Management System 5 5 25
7 Available man hours 5 5 25
8 Disruption to flow of the task 5 5 25
9 Parts availability 5 5 25
10 Skill Levels (MTU team) 5 5 25
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14. # Hazard to achieving business objective Likely hood Consequenc
e
Risk Index
11 Shunting 5 5 25
12 Management Time 5 5 25
13 Non-Productive Activity 5 5 25
14 Poor Support Contracts 5 5 25
15 Colleagues 5 5 25
16 Admin support 4 4 16
17
Physical Space on the depot (Service Roads &
Welfare Facilities)
5 3 15
18 Units arriving late 3 5 15
19 Plant Failure (Wheel Lathe) 3 5 15
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15. What will help?
Do you understand what combination of critical success
factors will determine whether your decision leads to a
successful outcome?
Do you know what metrics need to be met to ensure
success?
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16. What will help?
Studies of primitive peoples reinforce the idea that social interactions
are central to how humans gather information and make decisions
This tendency evolved in humans because pooling ideas from many
different people gave you an advantage:
You got a “wisdom of the crowd” take on things
That was better than individual judgement
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17. What will help?
Test your decisions – second and third order effects
Teach your people to think and argue critically
Teach them to be assertive
Encourage social networking - beware the ‘Echo Chamber’
Teach and encourage collaboration - BS11000
Improve Knowledge Management – especially tacit
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18. Summary
Decisions don’t happen in a vacuum
The best ones rarely come from deep pondering in isolation
They happen when people learn from and draw on the experience of
others
In this process, success depends upon:
Quality of social exploration
Ensure your information and sources of ideas are diverse and independent
(Alex Pentland)
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