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Scenarios	
  for	
  Goa	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  100	
  years	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  
	
  
1	
  
Scenarios	
  for	
  Goa	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  100	
  years	
  
Address	
  delivered	
  on	
  occasion	
  of	
  the	
  Foundation	
  Day	
  of	
  the	
  Goa	
  University	
  on	
  
30th	
  June	
  2013	
  
Prof.	
  Anupam	
  Saraph,	
  Ph.D.,	
  Future	
  Designer1	
  
Purpose	
  
It	
  is	
  not	
  my	
  purpose	
  to	
  deliver	
  scenarios	
  for	
  Goa	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  100	
  years.	
  
Rather	
  it	
  is	
  my	
  case	
  to	
  worry	
  about	
  the	
  absence	
  of	
  such	
  scenarios	
  stretching	
  
beyond	
  the	
  here	
  and	
  now.	
  It	
  is	
  my	
  case	
  to	
  worry	
  about	
  the	
  lack	
  of	
  any	
  serious	
  
discussion,	
  debate	
  to	
  look	
  at	
  alternate	
  futures	
  beyond	
  the	
  present.	
  It	
  is	
  my	
  case	
  
to	
  worry	
  about	
  the	
  absence	
  of	
  focus	
  and	
  capacity	
  for	
  designing	
  the	
  future.	
  We	
  are	
  
content	
  with	
  the	
  future	
  just	
  happening	
  on	
  us.	
  Our	
  designs	
  if	
  any	
  lack	
  not	
  just	
  the	
  
time	
  axis	
  but	
  also	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  dynamics,	
  change	
  and	
  life.	
  It	
  is	
  my	
  focus	
  to	
  worry	
  
about	
  the	
  increasingly	
  complex	
  state	
  in	
  an	
  ever-­‐complex	
  world	
  that	
  we	
  are	
  a	
  part	
  
of.	
  It	
  is	
  my	
  case	
  to	
  worry	
  about	
  our	
  failing	
  to	
  assume	
  leadership	
  of	
  the	
  future.	
  	
  
Scenarios	
  
Many	
  of	
  us	
  grow	
  up	
  learning	
  to	
  create	
  realities	
  by	
  first	
  imagining	
  them,	
  by	
  first	
  
experiencing	
  them	
  in	
  our	
  minds.	
  George	
  Bernard	
  Shaw’s	
  Pygmalion	
  created	
  a	
  
princess	
  out	
  of	
  a	
  flower	
  girl.	
  Be	
  careful	
  of	
  what	
  you	
  think,	
  warn	
  the	
  sages,	
  for	
  it	
  
may	
  turn	
  out	
  to	
  become	
  real.	
  The	
  future	
  then	
  is	
  not	
  pre-­‐determined	
  or	
  
unalterable.	
  
Scenarios	
  are	
  alternate	
  possible	
  sequences	
  of	
  future	
  events.	
  Scenarios	
  remind	
  us	
  
that	
  the	
  future	
  is	
  not	
  fixed.	
  Scenarios	
  remind	
  us	
  that	
  there	
  are	
  many	
  alternate	
  
futures	
  that	
  are	
  possible.	
  Scenarios	
  remind	
  us	
  that	
  the	
  choices	
  we	
  make,	
  the	
  
decisions	
  we	
  endorse,	
  the	
  goals	
  we	
  arrive	
  at,	
  the	
  indicators	
  and	
  events	
  that	
  drive	
  
us	
  to	
  action,	
  the	
  missions	
  we	
  pursue,	
  the	
  relationships	
  we	
  live	
  in,	
  the	
  
communities	
  we	
  build,	
  the	
  purposes	
  we	
  live	
  for	
  and	
  the	
  visions	
  we	
  aspire	
  for	
  
shape	
  our	
  futures.	
  	
  
Scenarios	
  are	
  not	
  predictions.	
  They	
  do	
  not	
  condemn	
  a	
  community	
  to	
  their	
  fate;	
  
rather	
  they	
  liberate	
  communities	
  to	
  understand	
  the	
  alternates	
  between	
  utopias	
  
and	
  dystopias	
  that	
  may	
  emerge	
  as	
  a	
  consequence	
  of	
  their	
  actions.	
  	
  
Scenarios	
  are	
  not	
  like	
  the	
  legendry	
  predictions	
  of	
  the	
  beautiful	
  Greek	
  priestess	
  
Cassandra	
  –	
  accurate	
  yet	
  unbelievable.	
  Scenarios	
  are	
  not	
  daydreams	
  or	
  castles	
  
built	
  in	
  the	
  air.	
  Most	
  scenarios	
  are	
  believable	
  alternates	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  models	
  and	
  
perceptions	
  of	
  those	
  who	
  build	
  them.	
  Some	
  scenarios	
  are	
  based	
  on	
  formal	
  
models	
  simulated	
  by	
  computers;	
  others	
  are	
  based	
  on	
  analysis	
  of	
  data.	
  Some	
  
scenarios	
  address	
  important,	
  immediate	
  choices	
  and	
  their	
  consequences;	
  others	
  
address	
  all	
  choices	
  that	
  affect	
  the	
  purposes	
  and	
  visions	
  of	
  the	
  communities.	
  Good	
  
scenarios	
  provide	
  opportunities	
  to	
  examine	
  and	
  question	
  our	
  mental	
  models	
  
about	
  the	
  complex	
  systems	
  that	
  we	
  are	
  a	
  part	
  of.	
  They	
  provide	
  opportunities	
  to	
  
navigate	
  our	
  way	
  into	
  creating	
  livable	
  and	
  even	
  enjoyable	
  futures.	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
1	
  Anupam	
  Saraph	
  is	
  a	
  Future	
  Designer	
  and	
  Professor	
  of	
  Systems,	
  Decision	
  
Sciences	
  and	
  Environment	
  
Scenarios	
  for	
  Goa	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  100	
  years	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  
	
  
2	
  
Scenarios	
  are	
  invaluable	
  when	
  they	
  form	
  the	
  basis	
  for	
  public	
  discourse	
  on	
  the	
  
future	
  of	
  communities.	
  They	
  help	
  identify	
  the	
  scenarios	
  that	
  are	
  dystopias	
  or	
  
utopias	
  to	
  different	
  stakeholders	
  in	
  the	
  community.	
  They	
  provide	
  a	
  pre-­‐sense	
  to	
  
the	
  pains	
  and	
  pleasures	
  each	
  scenario	
  promises	
  to	
  inflict	
  upon	
  the	
  stakeholders	
  
in	
  the	
  future.	
  Scenarios	
  provide	
  tremendous	
  value	
  in	
  helping	
  each	
  person	
  
recognize	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  their	
  choices	
  they	
  make,	
  the	
  decisions	
  they	
  endorse,	
  the	
  
goals	
  they	
  set,	
  the	
  indicators	
  they	
  use	
  to	
  drive	
  action,	
  the	
  missions	
  they	
  choose,	
  
the	
  purposes	
  they	
  want	
  to	
  live	
  for	
  and	
  the	
  visions	
  they	
  aspire	
  to	
  realize.	
  
When	
  used	
  as	
  a	
  part	
  of	
  public	
  discourse	
  scenarios	
  build	
  communities.	
  They	
  help	
  
pre-­‐sense	
  the	
  pleasures	
  and	
  pains	
  of	
  all	
  who	
  are	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  scenarios.	
  They	
  
create	
  a	
  community	
  well-­‐being	
  through	
  alignment	
  of	
  action,	
  continuity	
  in	
  
choices,	
  sharing	
  of	
  visions	
  and	
  respect	
  for	
  diverse	
  purposes.	
  
While	
  the	
  scenarios	
  for	
  Nassiruddin	
  cutting	
  the	
  branch	
  he	
  is	
  sitting	
  on	
  may	
  look	
  
simple,	
  the	
  scenarios	
  for	
  getting	
  a	
  energy	
  starved	
  Apollo	
  13	
  and	
  its	
  crew	
  safely	
  
back	
  to	
  earth	
  are	
  not.	
  The	
  scenarios	
  for	
  spaceship	
  Goa	
  are	
  even	
  more	
  complex.	
  
Long	
  Now	
  
"Now",	
  says	
  Stewart	
  Brand,	
  is	
  the	
  period	
  in	
  which	
  people	
  feel,	
  live,	
  act	
  and	
  have	
  
responsibility.	
  For	
  most	
  of	
  us,	
  "now"	
  is	
  about	
  a	
  week,	
  sometimes	
  a	
  year.	
  For	
  
some	
  traditional	
  tribes	
  in	
  the	
  American	
  northeast	
  and	
  Australia,	
  "now"	
  is	
  seven	
  
generations	
  back	
  and	
  forward	
  (350	
  years).	
  	
  
We	
  live	
  in	
  a	
  fast	
  world	
  where	
  companies	
  are	
  increasingly	
  shorter	
  lived,	
  
enormous	
  buildings	
  come	
  and	
  go,	
  scams	
  are	
  forgotten	
  faster	
  than	
  new	
  ones	
  
appear,	
  relationships	
  last	
  only	
  as	
  long	
  as	
  interests,	
  political	
  regimes	
  appear	
  and	
  
vanish	
  in	
  months,	
  careers	
  rise	
  and	
  crash	
  in	
  weeks.	
  Our	
  governments	
  are	
  limited	
  
to	
  next-­‐election	
  thinking	
  and	
  our	
  corporations	
  to	
  next-­‐quarter	
  perspectives.	
  As	
  
we	
  come	
  closer	
  to	
  a	
  “2020”	
  or	
  a	
  “2035”	
  or	
  even	
  our	
  future	
  shrinks	
  a	
  year	
  at	
  a	
  
time.	
  Our	
  “now”	
  is	
  increasingly	
  shorter	
  and	
  shorter.	
  	
  
In	
  our	
  information	
  age	
  we	
  look	
  for	
  excitement,	
  fast,	
  “my-­‐term”,	
  current,	
  and	
  
temporary.	
  British	
  musician	
  and	
  artist	
  Brian	
  Eno	
  highlights	
  that	
  you	
  rarely	
  get	
  
the	
  feeling	
  that	
  anyone	
  has	
  the	
  time	
  to	
  think	
  two	
  years	
  ahead,	
  let	
  alone	
  ten	
  or	
  a	
  
hundred.	
  He	
  points	
  out	
  that	
  such	
  a	
  world	
  may	
  seem	
  undeniably	
  lively,	
  but	
  the	
  
downside	
  was	
  that	
  it	
  seemed	
  selfish,	
  irresponsible	
  and	
  randomly	
  dangerous.	
  He	
  
came	
  to	
  think	
  of	
  this	
  as	
  "The	
  Short	
  Now",	
  and	
  this	
  suggested	
  the	
  possibility	
  of	
  its	
  
opposite	
  -­‐	
  "The	
  Long	
  Now".	
  
In	
  Goa	
  our	
  the	
  change	
  of	
  governments,	
  the	
  faster	
  change	
  in	
  policies,	
  the	
  impacts	
  
of	
  the	
  stay	
  on	
  mining,	
  the	
  tourist	
  flows,	
  the	
  price	
  of	
  petrol,	
  the	
  availability	
  of	
  
parking,	
  the	
  fish	
  and	
  vegetable	
  prices	
  occupy	
  our	
  “short	
  now”.	
  Understandably	
  
we	
  pay	
  most	
  attention	
  to	
  the	
  fast-­‐changing	
  elements.	
  
As	
  Brian	
  Eno	
  asks,	
  can	
  we	
  become	
  inspired	
  by	
  the	
  prospect	
  of	
  contributing	
  to	
  the	
  
future?	
  Can	
  we	
  shame	
  ourselves	
  into	
  thinking	
  that	
  we	
  really	
  do	
  owe	
  those	
  who	
  
follow	
  us	
  some	
  sort	
  of	
  consideration,	
  just	
  as	
  the	
  people	
  of	
  the	
  nineteenth	
  century	
  
shamed	
  themselves	
  out	
  of	
  slavery?	
  Can	
  we	
  extend	
  our	
  empathy	
  to	
  the	
  lives	
  
beyond	
  ours?	
  Can	
  we	
  look	
  at	
  the	
  lifetime	
  of	
  the	
  child	
  born	
  now?	
  Can	
  we	
  look	
  at	
  
the	
  transformations	
  that	
  will	
  matter	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  1000	
  or	
  at	
  least	
  the	
  next	
  100	
  
years	
  of	
  Goa?	
  	
  
Scenarios	
  for	
  Goa	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  100	
  years	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  
	
  
3	
  
Scenarios	
  for	
  Goa	
  
In	
  2000	
  I	
  was	
  part	
  of	
  a	
  team	
  that	
  looked	
  at	
  100-­‐year	
  scenarios	
  for	
  “greater”	
  
Panaji.	
  Our	
  mandate	
  was	
  to	
  look	
  at	
  scenarios	
  for	
  renewable	
  energy,	
  particularly	
  
gas	
  as	
  a	
  transition	
  fuel	
  as	
  the	
  world	
  moves	
  to	
  renewables	
  from	
  oil	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  
100	
  years.	
  I	
  developed	
  a	
  model	
  that	
  looked	
  at	
  the	
  dynamics	
  of	
  demographics	
  to	
  
explore	
  scenarios	
  of	
  resource	
  use	
  and	
  waste	
  management.	
  We	
  won	
  an	
  
International	
  award	
  for	
  the	
  work.	
  The	
  model,	
  as	
  yet,	
  remains	
  to	
  have	
  contibuted	
  
in	
  educating,	
  shaping	
  or	
  even	
  debating	
  the	
  future	
  designs	
  of	
  Goa.	
  
12	
  years	
  later	
  we	
  are	
  in	
  an	
  ever	
  more	
  complex	
  world.	
  Our	
  leadership	
  has	
  no	
  
models	
  of	
  the	
  state	
  or	
  the	
  country	
  they	
  attempt	
  to	
  transform.	
  They	
  have	
  no	
  
scenarios	
  to	
  share	
  other	
  than	
  an	
  assurance	
  of	
  a	
  single	
  fixed,	
  unchangeable	
  future.	
  
Besides	
  a	
  leap	
  of	
  faith	
  there	
  is	
  little	
  to	
  believe	
  that	
  the	
  choices	
  we	
  make,	
  the	
  
decisions	
  we	
  endorse,	
  the	
  goals	
  we	
  arrive	
  at,	
  the	
  indicators	
  and	
  events	
  that	
  drive	
  
us	
  to	
  action,	
  the	
  missions	
  we	
  pursue,	
  the	
  relationships	
  we	
  live	
  in,	
  the	
  
communities	
  we	
  build,	
  the	
  purposes	
  we	
  live	
  for	
  will	
  yield	
  the	
  visions	
  we	
  aspire	
  
for	
  or	
  shape	
  our	
  futures	
  for	
  the	
  better.	
  	
  
If	
  alternate	
  possibilities	
  are	
  not	
  recognized,	
  understood	
  or	
  designed	
  for	
  there	
  is	
  
no	
  way	
  they	
  can	
  be	
  addressed.	
  It	
  is	
  therefore	
  no	
  wonder	
  that	
  the	
  absence	
  of	
  
scenarios	
  results	
  in	
  a	
  design	
  failure	
  of	
  governance.	
  With	
  the	
  huge	
  failure	
  of	
  
governance	
  across	
  the	
  country,	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  crying	
  need	
  for	
  dynamic	
  models	
  and	
  
scenarios	
  not	
  only	
  for	
  each	
  state	
  but	
  also	
  for	
  the	
  entire	
  country.	
  	
  
The	
  many	
  things	
  on	
  which	
  our	
  future	
  well-­‐being	
  and	
  prosperity	
  depend	
  are	
  in	
  
dire	
  jeopardy:	
  the	
  resilience	
  and	
  productivity	
  of	
  systems,	
  the	
  beauty	
  of	
  the	
  
world,	
  biological	
  diversity	
  and	
  climate	
  stability.	
  
Just	
  a	
  few	
  years	
  ago	
  no	
  one	
  even	
  imagined	
  a	
  mine-­‐free	
  Goa.	
  Today	
  the	
  scenario	
  
could	
  be	
  a	
  reality.	
  Over	
  the	
  next	
  100	
  years	
  that	
  could	
  be	
  a	
  very	
  real	
  scenario.	
  
The	
  scenarios	
  that	
  result	
  from	
  dynamics	
  of	
  land-­‐use	
  can	
  help	
  recognize	
  choices	
  
necessary	
  to	
  create	
  a	
  sustainable	
  state	
  or	
  the	
  causes	
  of	
  the	
  dystopian	
  
urbanization	
  that	
  seems	
  to	
  plague	
  Goa	
  as	
  much	
  as	
  most	
  other	
  states.	
  	
  
The	
  scenarios	
  that	
  result	
  from	
  the	
  dynamics	
  of	
  global	
  climate-­‐change	
  can	
  help	
  
plan	
  for	
  a	
  possible	
  “Isles	
  of	
  Goa”	
  as	
  sea	
  level	
  rises	
  by	
  0.8	
  to	
  2	
  meters	
  by	
  2100.	
  
The	
  scenarios	
  that	
  result	
  from	
  the	
  dynamics	
  of	
  fisheries	
  and	
  agriculture	
  can	
  help	
  
find	
  choices	
  that	
  would	
  ensure	
  over-­‐exploitation	
  or	
  pollution	
  do	
  not	
  destroy	
  
these	
  sectors.	
  	
  
The	
  tourism	
  scenarios	
  of	
  Goa	
  can	
  help	
  Goa	
  ensure	
  that	
  a	
  hundred	
  years	
  from	
  
now	
  Goa	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  the	
  crime	
  tourism	
  capital.	
  	
  
The	
  scenarios	
  resulting	
  from	
  the	
  industrial	
  dynamics	
  of	
  Goa	
  can	
  provide	
  insight	
  
into	
  industrial	
  choices	
  that	
  result	
  into	
  utopias	
  or	
  dystopias.	
  
The	
  scenarios	
  resulting	
  from	
  the	
  demographic	
  dynamics	
  can	
  help	
  Goa	
  design	
  
ways	
  to	
  increase	
  the	
  knowledge	
  worker	
  density,	
  transition	
  from	
  a	
  mere	
  0.57%	
  
workers	
  being	
  university	
  educated,	
  to	
  deal	
  with	
  the	
  declining	
  workforce	
  as	
  the	
  
population	
  ages.	
  
Scenarios	
  for	
  Goa	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  100	
  years	
   	
   	
   	
   	
   	
  
	
  
4	
  
The	
  scenarios	
  that	
  result	
  from	
  ecological	
  dynamics	
  can	
  help	
  Goa	
  design	
  ways	
  to	
  
preserve	
  its	
  biodiversity,	
  ensure	
  clean	
  environment	
  and	
  maintain	
  healthy	
  bio-­‐
geo-­‐chemical	
  cycles.	
  
Conclusions	
  
During	
  his	
  tenure	
  as	
  the	
  President	
  of	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  Jimmy	
  Carter	
  
commissioned	
  Dr.	
  Gerald	
  Barney	
  to	
  capture,	
  compile	
  and	
  share	
  the	
  models	
  used	
  
by	
  different	
  government	
  agencies	
  to	
  undertake	
  their	
  business.	
  The	
  resulting	
  
effort	
  helped	
  bring	
  out	
  the	
  diverse	
  assumptions	
  and	
  the	
  huge	
  gap	
  in	
  
understanding	
  that	
  existed	
  about	
  the	
  impact	
  the	
  choices	
  of	
  each	
  department	
  had	
  
on	
  the	
  USA	
  and	
  the	
  world.	
  It	
  highlighted	
  the	
  absence	
  of	
  scenarios	
  in	
  most	
  cases	
  in	
  
dealing	
  with	
  the	
  challenges.	
  	
  
In	
  Goa	
  we	
  need	
  to	
  build	
  scenarios	
  for	
  each	
  sector	
  and	
  for	
  Goa	
  over	
  the	
  “long	
  
now”.	
  The	
  university	
  has	
  a	
  big	
  role	
  to	
  play	
  in	
  not	
  only	
  creating	
  the	
  scenarios	
  but	
  
also	
  in	
  building	
  Goa’s	
  capacity	
  to	
  design	
  futures	
  with	
  the	
  help	
  of	
  the	
  scenarios.	
  
Real	
  transformation	
  lies	
  in	
  deep,	
  slow	
  change.	
  	
  A	
  university	
  is	
  the	
  temple	
  of	
  
wisdom	
  that	
  has	
  tremendous	
  capacity	
  to	
  create	
  deep	
  slow	
  change	
  that	
  has	
  the	
  
power	
  to	
  transform	
  the	
  future.	
  The	
  “long	
  now”	
  of	
  Goa	
  resides	
  not	
  with	
  the	
  
economy	
  or	
  government	
  but	
  squarely	
  with	
  the	
  University.	
  If	
  education	
  cannot	
  
design	
  the	
  future	
  wisely,	
  what	
  is	
  education	
  for?	
  
Alternative scenarios for goa over the next 100 years
Alternative scenarios for goa over the next 100 years
Alternative scenarios for goa over the next 100 years
Alternative scenarios for goa over the next 100 years
Alternative scenarios for goa over the next 100 years
Alternative scenarios for goa over the next 100 years

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Anantkumar Hegde
 

Alternative scenarios for goa over the next 100 years

  • 1. Scenarios  for  Goa  over  the  next  100  years               1   Scenarios  for  Goa  over  the  next  100  years   Address  delivered  on  occasion  of  the  Foundation  Day  of  the  Goa  University  on   30th  June  2013   Prof.  Anupam  Saraph,  Ph.D.,  Future  Designer1   Purpose   It  is  not  my  purpose  to  deliver  scenarios  for  Goa  over  the  next  100  years.   Rather  it  is  my  case  to  worry  about  the  absence  of  such  scenarios  stretching   beyond  the  here  and  now.  It  is  my  case  to  worry  about  the  lack  of  any  serious   discussion,  debate  to  look  at  alternate  futures  beyond  the  present.  It  is  my  case   to  worry  about  the  absence  of  focus  and  capacity  for  designing  the  future.  We  are   content  with  the  future  just  happening  on  us.  Our  designs  if  any  lack  not  just  the   time  axis  but  also  the  idea  of  dynamics,  change  and  life.  It  is  my  focus  to  worry   about  the  increasingly  complex  state  in  an  ever-­‐complex  world  that  we  are  a  part   of.  It  is  my  case  to  worry  about  our  failing  to  assume  leadership  of  the  future.     Scenarios   Many  of  us  grow  up  learning  to  create  realities  by  first  imagining  them,  by  first   experiencing  them  in  our  minds.  George  Bernard  Shaw’s  Pygmalion  created  a   princess  out  of  a  flower  girl.  Be  careful  of  what  you  think,  warn  the  sages,  for  it   may  turn  out  to  become  real.  The  future  then  is  not  pre-­‐determined  or   unalterable.   Scenarios  are  alternate  possible  sequences  of  future  events.  Scenarios  remind  us   that  the  future  is  not  fixed.  Scenarios  remind  us  that  there  are  many  alternate   futures  that  are  possible.  Scenarios  remind  us  that  the  choices  we  make,  the   decisions  we  endorse,  the  goals  we  arrive  at,  the  indicators  and  events  that  drive   us  to  action,  the  missions  we  pursue,  the  relationships  we  live  in,  the   communities  we  build,  the  purposes  we  live  for  and  the  visions  we  aspire  for   shape  our  futures.     Scenarios  are  not  predictions.  They  do  not  condemn  a  community  to  their  fate;   rather  they  liberate  communities  to  understand  the  alternates  between  utopias   and  dystopias  that  may  emerge  as  a  consequence  of  their  actions.     Scenarios  are  not  like  the  legendry  predictions  of  the  beautiful  Greek  priestess   Cassandra  –  accurate  yet  unbelievable.  Scenarios  are  not  daydreams  or  castles   built  in  the  air.  Most  scenarios  are  believable  alternates  based  on  the  models  and   perceptions  of  those  who  build  them.  Some  scenarios  are  based  on  formal   models  simulated  by  computers;  others  are  based  on  analysis  of  data.  Some   scenarios  address  important,  immediate  choices  and  their  consequences;  others   address  all  choices  that  affect  the  purposes  and  visions  of  the  communities.  Good   scenarios  provide  opportunities  to  examine  and  question  our  mental  models   about  the  complex  systems  that  we  are  a  part  of.  They  provide  opportunities  to   navigate  our  way  into  creating  livable  and  even  enjoyable  futures.                                                                                                                   1  Anupam  Saraph  is  a  Future  Designer  and  Professor  of  Systems,  Decision   Sciences  and  Environment  
  • 2. Scenarios  for  Goa  over  the  next  100  years               2   Scenarios  are  invaluable  when  they  form  the  basis  for  public  discourse  on  the   future  of  communities.  They  help  identify  the  scenarios  that  are  dystopias  or   utopias  to  different  stakeholders  in  the  community.  They  provide  a  pre-­‐sense  to   the  pains  and  pleasures  each  scenario  promises  to  inflict  upon  the  stakeholders   in  the  future.  Scenarios  provide  tremendous  value  in  helping  each  person   recognize  the  impact  of  their  choices  they  make,  the  decisions  they  endorse,  the   goals  they  set,  the  indicators  they  use  to  drive  action,  the  missions  they  choose,   the  purposes  they  want  to  live  for  and  the  visions  they  aspire  to  realize.   When  used  as  a  part  of  public  discourse  scenarios  build  communities.  They  help   pre-­‐sense  the  pleasures  and  pains  of  all  who  are  part  of  the  scenarios.  They   create  a  community  well-­‐being  through  alignment  of  action,  continuity  in   choices,  sharing  of  visions  and  respect  for  diverse  purposes.   While  the  scenarios  for  Nassiruddin  cutting  the  branch  he  is  sitting  on  may  look   simple,  the  scenarios  for  getting  a  energy  starved  Apollo  13  and  its  crew  safely   back  to  earth  are  not.  The  scenarios  for  spaceship  Goa  are  even  more  complex.   Long  Now   "Now",  says  Stewart  Brand,  is  the  period  in  which  people  feel,  live,  act  and  have   responsibility.  For  most  of  us,  "now"  is  about  a  week,  sometimes  a  year.  For   some  traditional  tribes  in  the  American  northeast  and  Australia,  "now"  is  seven   generations  back  and  forward  (350  years).     We  live  in  a  fast  world  where  companies  are  increasingly  shorter  lived,   enormous  buildings  come  and  go,  scams  are  forgotten  faster  than  new  ones   appear,  relationships  last  only  as  long  as  interests,  political  regimes  appear  and   vanish  in  months,  careers  rise  and  crash  in  weeks.  Our  governments  are  limited   to  next-­‐election  thinking  and  our  corporations  to  next-­‐quarter  perspectives.  As   we  come  closer  to  a  “2020”  or  a  “2035”  or  even  our  future  shrinks  a  year  at  a   time.  Our  “now”  is  increasingly  shorter  and  shorter.     In  our  information  age  we  look  for  excitement,  fast,  “my-­‐term”,  current,  and   temporary.  British  musician  and  artist  Brian  Eno  highlights  that  you  rarely  get   the  feeling  that  anyone  has  the  time  to  think  two  years  ahead,  let  alone  ten  or  a   hundred.  He  points  out  that  such  a  world  may  seem  undeniably  lively,  but  the   downside  was  that  it  seemed  selfish,  irresponsible  and  randomly  dangerous.  He   came  to  think  of  this  as  "The  Short  Now",  and  this  suggested  the  possibility  of  its   opposite  -­‐  "The  Long  Now".   In  Goa  our  the  change  of  governments,  the  faster  change  in  policies,  the  impacts   of  the  stay  on  mining,  the  tourist  flows,  the  price  of  petrol,  the  availability  of   parking,  the  fish  and  vegetable  prices  occupy  our  “short  now”.  Understandably   we  pay  most  attention  to  the  fast-­‐changing  elements.   As  Brian  Eno  asks,  can  we  become  inspired  by  the  prospect  of  contributing  to  the   future?  Can  we  shame  ourselves  into  thinking  that  we  really  do  owe  those  who   follow  us  some  sort  of  consideration,  just  as  the  people  of  the  nineteenth  century   shamed  themselves  out  of  slavery?  Can  we  extend  our  empathy  to  the  lives   beyond  ours?  Can  we  look  at  the  lifetime  of  the  child  born  now?  Can  we  look  at   the  transformations  that  will  matter  over  the  next  1000  or  at  least  the  next  100   years  of  Goa?    
  • 3. Scenarios  for  Goa  over  the  next  100  years               3   Scenarios  for  Goa   In  2000  I  was  part  of  a  team  that  looked  at  100-­‐year  scenarios  for  “greater”   Panaji.  Our  mandate  was  to  look  at  scenarios  for  renewable  energy,  particularly   gas  as  a  transition  fuel  as  the  world  moves  to  renewables  from  oil  over  the  next   100  years.  I  developed  a  model  that  looked  at  the  dynamics  of  demographics  to   explore  scenarios  of  resource  use  and  waste  management.  We  won  an   International  award  for  the  work.  The  model,  as  yet,  remains  to  have  contibuted   in  educating,  shaping  or  even  debating  the  future  designs  of  Goa.   12  years  later  we  are  in  an  ever  more  complex  world.  Our  leadership  has  no   models  of  the  state  or  the  country  they  attempt  to  transform.  They  have  no   scenarios  to  share  other  than  an  assurance  of  a  single  fixed,  unchangeable  future.   Besides  a  leap  of  faith  there  is  little  to  believe  that  the  choices  we  make,  the   decisions  we  endorse,  the  goals  we  arrive  at,  the  indicators  and  events  that  drive   us  to  action,  the  missions  we  pursue,  the  relationships  we  live  in,  the   communities  we  build,  the  purposes  we  live  for  will  yield  the  visions  we  aspire   for  or  shape  our  futures  for  the  better.     If  alternate  possibilities  are  not  recognized,  understood  or  designed  for  there  is   no  way  they  can  be  addressed.  It  is  therefore  no  wonder  that  the  absence  of   scenarios  results  in  a  design  failure  of  governance.  With  the  huge  failure  of   governance  across  the  country,  there  is  a  crying  need  for  dynamic  models  and   scenarios  not  only  for  each  state  but  also  for  the  entire  country.     The  many  things  on  which  our  future  well-­‐being  and  prosperity  depend  are  in   dire  jeopardy:  the  resilience  and  productivity  of  systems,  the  beauty  of  the   world,  biological  diversity  and  climate  stability.   Just  a  few  years  ago  no  one  even  imagined  a  mine-­‐free  Goa.  Today  the  scenario   could  be  a  reality.  Over  the  next  100  years  that  could  be  a  very  real  scenario.   The  scenarios  that  result  from  dynamics  of  land-­‐use  can  help  recognize  choices   necessary  to  create  a  sustainable  state  or  the  causes  of  the  dystopian   urbanization  that  seems  to  plague  Goa  as  much  as  most  other  states.     The  scenarios  that  result  from  the  dynamics  of  global  climate-­‐change  can  help   plan  for  a  possible  “Isles  of  Goa”  as  sea  level  rises  by  0.8  to  2  meters  by  2100.   The  scenarios  that  result  from  the  dynamics  of  fisheries  and  agriculture  can  help   find  choices  that  would  ensure  over-­‐exploitation  or  pollution  do  not  destroy   these  sectors.     The  tourism  scenarios  of  Goa  can  help  Goa  ensure  that  a  hundred  years  from   now  Goa  will  not  be  the  crime  tourism  capital.     The  scenarios  resulting  from  the  industrial  dynamics  of  Goa  can  provide  insight   into  industrial  choices  that  result  into  utopias  or  dystopias.   The  scenarios  resulting  from  the  demographic  dynamics  can  help  Goa  design   ways  to  increase  the  knowledge  worker  density,  transition  from  a  mere  0.57%   workers  being  university  educated,  to  deal  with  the  declining  workforce  as  the   population  ages.  
  • 4. Scenarios  for  Goa  over  the  next  100  years               4   The  scenarios  that  result  from  ecological  dynamics  can  help  Goa  design  ways  to   preserve  its  biodiversity,  ensure  clean  environment  and  maintain  healthy  bio-­‐ geo-­‐chemical  cycles.   Conclusions   During  his  tenure  as  the  President  of  the  United  States  Jimmy  Carter   commissioned  Dr.  Gerald  Barney  to  capture,  compile  and  share  the  models  used   by  different  government  agencies  to  undertake  their  business.  The  resulting   effort  helped  bring  out  the  diverse  assumptions  and  the  huge  gap  in   understanding  that  existed  about  the  impact  the  choices  of  each  department  had   on  the  USA  and  the  world.  It  highlighted  the  absence  of  scenarios  in  most  cases  in   dealing  with  the  challenges.     In  Goa  we  need  to  build  scenarios  for  each  sector  and  for  Goa  over  the  “long   now”.  The  university  has  a  big  role  to  play  in  not  only  creating  the  scenarios  but   also  in  building  Goa’s  capacity  to  design  futures  with  the  help  of  the  scenarios.   Real  transformation  lies  in  deep,  slow  change.    A  university  is  the  temple  of   wisdom  that  has  tremendous  capacity  to  create  deep  slow  change  that  has  the   power  to  transform  the  future.  The  “long  now”  of  Goa  resides  not  with  the   economy  or  government  but  squarely  with  the  University.  If  education  cannot   design  the  future  wisely,  what  is  education  for?