Alternative scenarios for goa over the next 100 years
1. Scenarios
for
Goa
over
the
next
100
years
1
Scenarios
for
Goa
over
the
next
100
years
Address
delivered
on
occasion
of
the
Foundation
Day
of
the
Goa
University
on
30th
June
2013
Prof.
Anupam
Saraph,
Ph.D.,
Future
Designer1
Purpose
It
is
not
my
purpose
to
deliver
scenarios
for
Goa
over
the
next
100
years.
Rather
it
is
my
case
to
worry
about
the
absence
of
such
scenarios
stretching
beyond
the
here
and
now.
It
is
my
case
to
worry
about
the
lack
of
any
serious
discussion,
debate
to
look
at
alternate
futures
beyond
the
present.
It
is
my
case
to
worry
about
the
absence
of
focus
and
capacity
for
designing
the
future.
We
are
content
with
the
future
just
happening
on
us.
Our
designs
if
any
lack
not
just
the
time
axis
but
also
the
idea
of
dynamics,
change
and
life.
It
is
my
focus
to
worry
about
the
increasingly
complex
state
in
an
ever-‐complex
world
that
we
are
a
part
of.
It
is
my
case
to
worry
about
our
failing
to
assume
leadership
of
the
future.
Scenarios
Many
of
us
grow
up
learning
to
create
realities
by
first
imagining
them,
by
first
experiencing
them
in
our
minds.
George
Bernard
Shaw’s
Pygmalion
created
a
princess
out
of
a
flower
girl.
Be
careful
of
what
you
think,
warn
the
sages,
for
it
may
turn
out
to
become
real.
The
future
then
is
not
pre-‐determined
or
unalterable.
Scenarios
are
alternate
possible
sequences
of
future
events.
Scenarios
remind
us
that
the
future
is
not
fixed.
Scenarios
remind
us
that
there
are
many
alternate
futures
that
are
possible.
Scenarios
remind
us
that
the
choices
we
make,
the
decisions
we
endorse,
the
goals
we
arrive
at,
the
indicators
and
events
that
drive
us
to
action,
the
missions
we
pursue,
the
relationships
we
live
in,
the
communities
we
build,
the
purposes
we
live
for
and
the
visions
we
aspire
for
shape
our
futures.
Scenarios
are
not
predictions.
They
do
not
condemn
a
community
to
their
fate;
rather
they
liberate
communities
to
understand
the
alternates
between
utopias
and
dystopias
that
may
emerge
as
a
consequence
of
their
actions.
Scenarios
are
not
like
the
legendry
predictions
of
the
beautiful
Greek
priestess
Cassandra
–
accurate
yet
unbelievable.
Scenarios
are
not
daydreams
or
castles
built
in
the
air.
Most
scenarios
are
believable
alternates
based
on
the
models
and
perceptions
of
those
who
build
them.
Some
scenarios
are
based
on
formal
models
simulated
by
computers;
others
are
based
on
analysis
of
data.
Some
scenarios
address
important,
immediate
choices
and
their
consequences;
others
address
all
choices
that
affect
the
purposes
and
visions
of
the
communities.
Good
scenarios
provide
opportunities
to
examine
and
question
our
mental
models
about
the
complex
systems
that
we
are
a
part
of.
They
provide
opportunities
to
navigate
our
way
into
creating
livable
and
even
enjoyable
futures.
1
Anupam
Saraph
is
a
Future
Designer
and
Professor
of
Systems,
Decision
Sciences
and
Environment
2. Scenarios
for
Goa
over
the
next
100
years
2
Scenarios
are
invaluable
when
they
form
the
basis
for
public
discourse
on
the
future
of
communities.
They
help
identify
the
scenarios
that
are
dystopias
or
utopias
to
different
stakeholders
in
the
community.
They
provide
a
pre-‐sense
to
the
pains
and
pleasures
each
scenario
promises
to
inflict
upon
the
stakeholders
in
the
future.
Scenarios
provide
tremendous
value
in
helping
each
person
recognize
the
impact
of
their
choices
they
make,
the
decisions
they
endorse,
the
goals
they
set,
the
indicators
they
use
to
drive
action,
the
missions
they
choose,
the
purposes
they
want
to
live
for
and
the
visions
they
aspire
to
realize.
When
used
as
a
part
of
public
discourse
scenarios
build
communities.
They
help
pre-‐sense
the
pleasures
and
pains
of
all
who
are
part
of
the
scenarios.
They
create
a
community
well-‐being
through
alignment
of
action,
continuity
in
choices,
sharing
of
visions
and
respect
for
diverse
purposes.
While
the
scenarios
for
Nassiruddin
cutting
the
branch
he
is
sitting
on
may
look
simple,
the
scenarios
for
getting
a
energy
starved
Apollo
13
and
its
crew
safely
back
to
earth
are
not.
The
scenarios
for
spaceship
Goa
are
even
more
complex.
Long
Now
"Now",
says
Stewart
Brand,
is
the
period
in
which
people
feel,
live,
act
and
have
responsibility.
For
most
of
us,
"now"
is
about
a
week,
sometimes
a
year.
For
some
traditional
tribes
in
the
American
northeast
and
Australia,
"now"
is
seven
generations
back
and
forward
(350
years).
We
live
in
a
fast
world
where
companies
are
increasingly
shorter
lived,
enormous
buildings
come
and
go,
scams
are
forgotten
faster
than
new
ones
appear,
relationships
last
only
as
long
as
interests,
political
regimes
appear
and
vanish
in
months,
careers
rise
and
crash
in
weeks.
Our
governments
are
limited
to
next-‐election
thinking
and
our
corporations
to
next-‐quarter
perspectives.
As
we
come
closer
to
a
“2020”
or
a
“2035”
or
even
our
future
shrinks
a
year
at
a
time.
Our
“now”
is
increasingly
shorter
and
shorter.
In
our
information
age
we
look
for
excitement,
fast,
“my-‐term”,
current,
and
temporary.
British
musician
and
artist
Brian
Eno
highlights
that
you
rarely
get
the
feeling
that
anyone
has
the
time
to
think
two
years
ahead,
let
alone
ten
or
a
hundred.
He
points
out
that
such
a
world
may
seem
undeniably
lively,
but
the
downside
was
that
it
seemed
selfish,
irresponsible
and
randomly
dangerous.
He
came
to
think
of
this
as
"The
Short
Now",
and
this
suggested
the
possibility
of
its
opposite
-‐
"The
Long
Now".
In
Goa
our
the
change
of
governments,
the
faster
change
in
policies,
the
impacts
of
the
stay
on
mining,
the
tourist
flows,
the
price
of
petrol,
the
availability
of
parking,
the
fish
and
vegetable
prices
occupy
our
“short
now”.
Understandably
we
pay
most
attention
to
the
fast-‐changing
elements.
As
Brian
Eno
asks,
can
we
become
inspired
by
the
prospect
of
contributing
to
the
future?
Can
we
shame
ourselves
into
thinking
that
we
really
do
owe
those
who
follow
us
some
sort
of
consideration,
just
as
the
people
of
the
nineteenth
century
shamed
themselves
out
of
slavery?
Can
we
extend
our
empathy
to
the
lives
beyond
ours?
Can
we
look
at
the
lifetime
of
the
child
born
now?
Can
we
look
at
the
transformations
that
will
matter
over
the
next
1000
or
at
least
the
next
100
years
of
Goa?
3. Scenarios
for
Goa
over
the
next
100
years
3
Scenarios
for
Goa
In
2000
I
was
part
of
a
team
that
looked
at
100-‐year
scenarios
for
“greater”
Panaji.
Our
mandate
was
to
look
at
scenarios
for
renewable
energy,
particularly
gas
as
a
transition
fuel
as
the
world
moves
to
renewables
from
oil
over
the
next
100
years.
I
developed
a
model
that
looked
at
the
dynamics
of
demographics
to
explore
scenarios
of
resource
use
and
waste
management.
We
won
an
International
award
for
the
work.
The
model,
as
yet,
remains
to
have
contibuted
in
educating,
shaping
or
even
debating
the
future
designs
of
Goa.
12
years
later
we
are
in
an
ever
more
complex
world.
Our
leadership
has
no
models
of
the
state
or
the
country
they
attempt
to
transform.
They
have
no
scenarios
to
share
other
than
an
assurance
of
a
single
fixed,
unchangeable
future.
Besides
a
leap
of
faith
there
is
little
to
believe
that
the
choices
we
make,
the
decisions
we
endorse,
the
goals
we
arrive
at,
the
indicators
and
events
that
drive
us
to
action,
the
missions
we
pursue,
the
relationships
we
live
in,
the
communities
we
build,
the
purposes
we
live
for
will
yield
the
visions
we
aspire
for
or
shape
our
futures
for
the
better.
If
alternate
possibilities
are
not
recognized,
understood
or
designed
for
there
is
no
way
they
can
be
addressed.
It
is
therefore
no
wonder
that
the
absence
of
scenarios
results
in
a
design
failure
of
governance.
With
the
huge
failure
of
governance
across
the
country,
there
is
a
crying
need
for
dynamic
models
and
scenarios
not
only
for
each
state
but
also
for
the
entire
country.
The
many
things
on
which
our
future
well-‐being
and
prosperity
depend
are
in
dire
jeopardy:
the
resilience
and
productivity
of
systems,
the
beauty
of
the
world,
biological
diversity
and
climate
stability.
Just
a
few
years
ago
no
one
even
imagined
a
mine-‐free
Goa.
Today
the
scenario
could
be
a
reality.
Over
the
next
100
years
that
could
be
a
very
real
scenario.
The
scenarios
that
result
from
dynamics
of
land-‐use
can
help
recognize
choices
necessary
to
create
a
sustainable
state
or
the
causes
of
the
dystopian
urbanization
that
seems
to
plague
Goa
as
much
as
most
other
states.
The
scenarios
that
result
from
the
dynamics
of
global
climate-‐change
can
help
plan
for
a
possible
“Isles
of
Goa”
as
sea
level
rises
by
0.8
to
2
meters
by
2100.
The
scenarios
that
result
from
the
dynamics
of
fisheries
and
agriculture
can
help
find
choices
that
would
ensure
over-‐exploitation
or
pollution
do
not
destroy
these
sectors.
The
tourism
scenarios
of
Goa
can
help
Goa
ensure
that
a
hundred
years
from
now
Goa
will
not
be
the
crime
tourism
capital.
The
scenarios
resulting
from
the
industrial
dynamics
of
Goa
can
provide
insight
into
industrial
choices
that
result
into
utopias
or
dystopias.
The
scenarios
resulting
from
the
demographic
dynamics
can
help
Goa
design
ways
to
increase
the
knowledge
worker
density,
transition
from
a
mere
0.57%
workers
being
university
educated,
to
deal
with
the
declining
workforce
as
the
population
ages.
4. Scenarios
for
Goa
over
the
next
100
years
4
The
scenarios
that
result
from
ecological
dynamics
can
help
Goa
design
ways
to
preserve
its
biodiversity,
ensure
clean
environment
and
maintain
healthy
bio-‐
geo-‐chemical
cycles.
Conclusions
During
his
tenure
as
the
President
of
the
United
States
Jimmy
Carter
commissioned
Dr.
Gerald
Barney
to
capture,
compile
and
share
the
models
used
by
different
government
agencies
to
undertake
their
business.
The
resulting
effort
helped
bring
out
the
diverse
assumptions
and
the
huge
gap
in
understanding
that
existed
about
the
impact
the
choices
of
each
department
had
on
the
USA
and
the
world.
It
highlighted
the
absence
of
scenarios
in
most
cases
in
dealing
with
the
challenges.
In
Goa
we
need
to
build
scenarios
for
each
sector
and
for
Goa
over
the
“long
now”.
The
university
has
a
big
role
to
play
in
not
only
creating
the
scenarios
but
also
in
building
Goa’s
capacity
to
design
futures
with
the
help
of
the
scenarios.
Real
transformation
lies
in
deep,
slow
change.
A
university
is
the
temple
of
wisdom
that
has
tremendous
capacity
to
create
deep
slow
change
that
has
the
power
to
transform
the
future.
The
“long
now”
of
Goa
resides
not
with
the
economy
or
government
but
squarely
with
the
University.
If
education
cannot
design
the
future
wisely,
what
is
education
for?