These are some introductory slides on the CrowdWorx prediction markets by Analyx. Prediction Markets are an Enterprise 2.0 tool for harnessing collective intelligence in an organization for business forecasting. You can try out a free live demo system at www.crowdworx.de

1. Harnessing the Collective Intelligence of your company
Prediction Markets (PM) in Corporate Forecasting
www.crowdworx.com www.facebook.com/crowdWorx www.twitter.com/crowdworx

2. Idea: Bundling the collective intelligence of individuals inside and
outside organizations for better forecasts
Product managers
Own sales force Other departments or
business units
Prediction Market
Optional: External analysts
Optional: Consumers
and experts etc.

3. Why EPM? Within a crowd, everybody has insights – a piece of
the puzzle; EPMs aggregate these insights to high-precision
forecasts
Crowdsourcing Prediction Market
Wisdom of Efficiently aggregate
Crowds distributed information .
Proven high-precision forecasts on various topics
Forecasts are updated automatically in real-time
Lower cost than traditional forecasting methods
* Sources: www.CrowdWorx.com

4. Crowdsourcing: Participants trade their opinions on an EPM
website; with only 2 clicks everybody can participate
Results
Prediction
Web browser in Excel after
Market website
a few days

5. START: On the main page users see all ongoing forecasts of the
company and can choose in which ones to participate

6. Example “Forecast unit sales for next 4 calendar weeks (CW)”
Sales can be forecasted at any level, e.g. by region, by segment.
Pick the week you
want to forecast

7. Users have an incentive to give their best forecast in order to win;
Players who don’t have knowledge will self-select not to forecast
The more confident
Enter your you are the more you
forecast can stake

8. Results of all forecasts go to an Excel report for management
The crowd forecast
is updated in real-
time

9. Recap and benefits of Prediction Markets
Crowd- Prediction
Concept sourcing markets
Benefits
Incentive to forecast as Proven higher forecasting
good as possible accuracy
Forecast is updated
Performance-based rewards automatically in real-time
Interaction with the crowd Low cost
People also report how sure they Simple 2-click usage
are about their knowledge
Fun & recognition

10. Industry leaders and global organizations use Prediction
Markets to improve their decisions by using more reliable and
more accurate forecasts EXAMPLES
Sales forecasting Market forecasting
Various areas
Project management (=Enterprise 2.0)
Global FMCG
manufacturer Demand planning
Innovation evaluation
Project of
reseller partner Global agri-
Change management business
Trend forecasting
(project by a CrowdWorx reseller)
„True democracy Large German
retailer
… in real-time“ Sales forecasting
Sources: Chen at al. (2002): Information Aggregation Mechanisms; McKinsey Quarterly, 2008, No. 1; Analyx projects

11. Example: General Election in Germany 2009
Forecasting accuracy of pollsters vs. CrowdWorx Prediction Market
100%
96,2%
Accurate and fast
95% 93,6%
91,5%
forecasts for a
90,5% 90,0%
90% 88,6% 88,4%
fraction of the cost of
87,8%
traditional surveys
85%
80%
Forsa Allens CROWD FG Emnid Infratest GMS ARD
bach WORX Wahlen dimap Wahltipp
Number of 1000 1000 89 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
participants

12. Example: What will be the planted soybean area in the US
US Soybean Acreage, in mio. acres
90
85
Social Forecasting
80 Actual acreage
74,5 million acres
gathers employee
75
Crowd forecast
opinions until the
70
74,4 million acres
social forecast
65
60
achieves an optimal
55
equilibrium
50
2-Jun 6-Jun 10-Jun 14-Jun 18-Jun

13. Example: Sales forecasting at a large retail chain
Large German
retail chain
Forecasting sales in a retail chain
(Share of product in total sales, in %)
2,5%
Each dot is one Correlation between Social
2,0% forecasted product forecast & actual sales after
first 5 weeks of pilot: 81%
outcome
Actual
1,5%
Cost of Social Forecast are
1,0% 10x lower than Market
research
0,5%
0,0%
0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5%
EPM forecast

14. Example: Demand planning at a global FMCG manufacturer
Large German
Forecasting accuracy of internal forecasts retail chain
vs. CrowdWorx forecasts , in %
Crowd Internal
forecasting experts’
accuracy forecasting • CrowdWorx surpasses the
accuracy client’s current forecasting
method
85,3% 69,5% • Forecasting effort is
Crowd
CrowdWorx reduced
Internal
Internal Henkel
90%
81% 84% 84%
63% 61%
November December January

15. Areas of application: EPMs allow for better management decisions in a
variety of areas (Examples)
Sales & • How many units are we going to sell in the 3rd & 4th quarter of this year?
Operational • What will be our market share in the compact segment in China in 2008?
Planning • Which SKUs are most likely to have stock outs in 06/2009?
• In which of 7 currently debated concepts of alternative propulsion should we
Innovation invest scarce R&D resources?
Management • Should we try to leapfrog the current hybrid drive technology and concentrate
on mastering pure electrical engines instead?
Project • What is a realistic deadline for the software project “GoldenTrust”?
ManagementCa • How much capacity should we plan for maintenance work next month?
pacity Planning • What will be the final amount invested in the development of XXX?
• Which action/incentive will have the highest impact on productivity?
HR • How many engineers do we need on project F87 to hold the deadline?
• What will be the level of R&D employee satisfaction next quarter?
Cross-company • What will be the market volume of diesel vehicles in 2009?
Collaborative • By September 30th, what will be the quarterly GDP growth in China?
Forecasting • Will Blu-Ray or HD DVD become the industry standard?
The volatility of today’s business environment
calls for innovations in real-time forecasting

16. Summary: An excellent EPM platform is a basic prerequisite for
excellent forecasts – but its only one out of 6 success factors for
EPMs

17. CrowdWorx can be accessed via any web browser or from
within the company Intranet
Hosting on Integration into
CrowdWorx-Server Client Intranet
•No IT footprint at the client •Maximum security
•Custom visual layout, e.g. •Easier access for clients IT
clients corporate ID staff
•Low setup costs •Employees meet EPM in
the familiar surrounding of
•Easy to include external the company Intranet
partners or lead-users

18. For white papers, case studies and more visit our website
E-Mail: team@crowdworx.com
Web: www.crowdworx.com
Phone: +49-30-224-121-76 (Berlin)
+49-89-61 066-793 (Munich)
+48-61-885-77-02 (Poznan)
+1-617-763-8082 (Boston)
Fax: +48-61-885-77-15