1. AGING IN
NORTH CAROLINA
Allison Brown
September 10, 2015

3. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
AGEGROUP
Males Females
NORTH CAROLINA 1900

4. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
AGEGROUP
Males Females
2010NORTH CAROLINA

5. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
AGEGROUP
Males Females
2020NORTH CAROLINA

6. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
AGEGROUP
Males Females
2030N.C. IS AGING!

7. Baby Boomers
 In 2015: 51-69 years old
 Have distinct social and demographic attributes
 Obtained more education
 Have more women in labor force
 More likely to occupy professional positions
 More racially and ethnically diverse
 Higher rates of divorce and separation
 Lower rates of marriage
 Fewer children
 Technology and social media users
- William H. Frey

8. NC 1990 – 2030: 177% Growth
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Millions
Age 0-19 Age 20-59 Age 60+
6.6 M 8.0 M 9.6 M 10.7 M 11.7 M

9. Ranked 10th in Total Population
Rank State
Population
(millions)
1 California 38
2 Texas 26
3 New York 19.6
4 Florida 19
5 Illinois 12.9
6 Pennsylvania 12.8
7 Ohio 11.5
8 Georgia 9.9
9 Michigan 9.8
10 North Carolina 9.75

10. NC Age 60+ Has Greatest Growth
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Age 0-19 Age 20-59 Age 60+
16%
25%
269%
28% 25%
157%
56%
50%
159%

11. Ranked 9th in Age 65+ Population
Rank State
Population
(millions)
1 California 4.4
2 Florida 3.4
3 Texas 2.7
4 New York 2.6
5 Pennsylvania 2.0
6 Ohio 1.6
7 Illinois 1.6
8 Michigan 1.4
9 North Carolina 1.3
10 New Jersey 1.2

12. NC Age 85+ Has Greatest
Growth Rate
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Millions
Age 60-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+
69K
260K
378%

13. Ranked 10th in Age 85+
Population
Rank State
Population
(000,000s)
1 California 601
2 Florida 434
3 New York 391
4 Pennsylvania 306
5 Texas 305
6 Illinois 235
7 Ohio 230
8 Michigan 192
9 New Jersey 180
10 North Carolina 147

14. 10 Largest Counties
Rank County Population
1 Mecklenburg 962,593
2 Wake 945,143
3 Guilford 501,058
4 Forsyth 357,483
5 Cumberland 331,279
6 Durham 280,921
7 Buncombe 245,228
8 New Hanover 209,846
9 Gaston 208,704
10 Union 207,896

15. High Growth Counties
1990—2010
Rank County
%
Change
1 UNION 140%
2 WAKE 113%
3 BRUNSWICK 112%
4 JOHNSTON 109%
5 HOKE 108%
2010—2030
Rank County
%
Change
1 DURHAM 52%
2 HOKE 52%
3 HARNETT 49%
4 MECKLENBURG 47%
5 WAKE 46%

16. Low Growth Counties
1990—2010
Rank County
%
Change
1 WASHINGTON -6%
2 MARTIN -2%
3 HALIFAX -2%
4 EDGECOMBE 0%
5 LENOIR 4%
2010—2030
Rank County % Change
1 NORTHAMPTON -21%
2 ALLEGHANY -17%
3 TYRRELL -14%
4 MARTIN -13%
5 GATES -12%

17. Age 65+ High Growth Counties
1990—2010
Rank County
%
Change
1 BRUNSWICK 215%
2 UNION 144%
3 WAKE 135%
4 CHATHAM 112%
5 ONSLOW 111%
2010—2030
Rank County
%
Change
1 WAKE 176%
2 HOKE 159%
3 MECKLENBURG 145%
4 ORANGE 142%
5 CHATHAM 132%

18. Age 65+ Low Growth Counties
1990—2010
Rank County
%
Change
1 HYDE -2%
2 ANSON 7%
3 RICHMOND 7%
4 TYRRELL 8%
5 HALIFAX 13%
2010—2030
Rank County % Change
1 NORTHAMPTON -1%
2 ALLEGHANY 17%
3 POLK 19%
4 MITCHELL 20%
5 CRAVEN 22%

19. Centenarians
2010
Rank County #
1 MECKLENBURG 133
2 WAKE 94
3 GUILFORD 83
4 FORSYTH 77
5 BUNCOMBE 74
STATE 1,512
2030
Rank County #
1 WAKE 577
2 MECKLENBURG 534
3 GUILFORD 288
4 BUNCOMBE 189
5 FORSYTH 186
STATE 4,853

20. New
Alexander
Alleghany
Ashe
Avery
Buncombe
Burke
Cabarrus
Caldwell
Catawba
Cherokee
Cleveland
Davie
Gaston
Graham
Haywood
Henderson
Iredell
Jackson
McDowell
Macon
Madison
Mecklenburg
Mitchell
Polk
Rowan
Rutherford
Surry
Swain
Union
Watauga Wilkes
Yadkin
Yancey
Clay
Transylvania
Lincoln
Granville
Nash
Alamance
Anson
Bladen
Caswell
Chatham
Columbus
Cumberland
Davidson
Durham
Forsyth FranklinGuilford
Harnett
Hoke
Johnston
Lee
Montgomery
Moore
Orange
Person
Randolph
Richmond
Robeson
Rockingham
Sampson
Scotland
Stanly
Stokes
Vance
Wake
Warren
Beaufort
Bertie
Carteret
Chowan
Craven
Dare
Duplin
Edgecombe
Gates
Greene
Halifax Hertford
Hyde
Jones
Lenoir
Martin
Hanover
Northampton
Onslow
Pamlico
Pasquotank
Pender
Perquimans
Pitt
Tyrrell
Brunswick
Washington
Wayne
Wilson
Camden
Currituck
Greater than 150%
100 to 150% increase
50 to 99% increase
Source: Based on US Census 2010 and 2030 projections from Office of State Budget and Management
Range: 3% -170%
3 to 49% increase
Projected growth for the State is 74%

21. Counties with more age 60+ than age 0-17 (43)
Counties with more age 0-17 than age 60+ (57)
Source: US Census 2010
New
Alexander
Alleghany
Ashe
Avery
Buncombe
Burke
Cabarrus
Caldwell
Catawba
Cherokee
Cleveland
Davie
Gaston
Graham
Haywood
Henderson
Iredell
Jackson
McDowell
Macon
Madison
Mecklenburg
Mitchell
Polk
Rowan
Rutherford
Surry
Swain
Union
Watauga Wilkes
Yadkin
Yancey
Clay
Transylvania
Lincoln
Granville
Nash
Alamance
Anson
Bladen
Caswell
Chatham
Columbus
Cumberland
Davidson
Durham
Forsyth FranklinGuilford
Harnett
Hoke
Johnston
Lee
Montgomery
Moore
Orange
Person
Randolph
Richmond
Robeson
Rockingham
Sampson
Scotland
Stanly
Stokes
Vance
Wake
Warren
Beaufort
Bertie
Carteret
Chowan
Craven
Dare
Duplin
Edgecombe
Gates
Greene
Halifax Hertford
Hyde
Jones
Lenoir
Martin
Hanover
Northampton
Onslow
Pamlico
Pasquotank
Pender
Perquimans
Pitt
Tyrrell
Brunswick
Washington
Wayne
Wilson
Camden
Currituck

22. Counties with more 60+ than 0-17 (86)
Counties with more 0-17 than 60+ (14)
New
Alexander
Alleghany
Ashe
Avery
Buncombe
Burke
Cabarrus
Caldwell
Catawba
Cherokee
Cleveland
Davie
Gaston
Graham
Haywood
Henderson
Iredell
Jackson
McDowell
Macon
Madison
Mecklenburg
Mitchell
Polk
Rowan
Rutherford
Surry
Swain
Union
Watauga Wilkes
Yadkin
Yancey
Clay
Transylvania
Lincoln
Granville
Nash
Alamance
Anson
Bladen
Caswell
Chatham
Columbus
Cumberland
Davidson
Durham
Forsyth FranklinGuilford
Harnett
Hoke
Johnston
Lee
Montgomery
Moore
Orange
Person
Randolph
Richmond
Robeson
Rockingham
Sampson
Scotland
Stanly
Stokes
Vance
Wake
Warren
Beaufort
Bertie
Carteret
Chowan
Craven
Dare
Duplin
Edgecombe
Gates
Greene
Halifax Hertford
Hyde
Jones
Lenoir
Martin
Hanover
Northampton
Onslow
Pamlico
Pasquotank
Pender
Perquimans
Pitt
Tyrrell
Brunswick
Washington
Wayne
Wilson
Camden
Currituck

23. Source: US Census 2010
“Younger” and “Older” Counties
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2010 2025
Younger
Older

24. Race & Ethnicity Age 60+
80.5%
16.4%
0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
White
African American
American Indian
Asian
Hispanic / Latino
Other ethnicity

25. 2010 Hispanic / Latino
 Total population – 800,120
 80% of the total population is 0-40 years
 61% is Mexican
 Age 60 and over – 27,339 (3.4%)
 77% of people 65 and over live in family
households
 241 people 65 and over in group quarters

26. • 98,634 grandparents age
30+
• Responsible for 100,577
grandchildren under age 18
• 23% with income below
poverty
• 36% in labor force
• NC ranks 7th nationally in
grandparents responsible
for grandchildren under 18
ACS
Age
30-
64
68%
Age
65+
32%

27. Source: US Census 2010
Women Outnumber Men
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
65+ 85+
Males
Females

28. Source: ACS 2006-2010
Marital Status Age 65+
30%
35%
19%
4% 12%
Married
Widowed
Divorced
Separated
Never
Married

29. Source: ACS 2006-2010
47%
67%
90%
25%
30%
50%
Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+
Unmarried Women Unmarried Men
2010 Marital Status and Gender

30. Source: ACS 2006-2010
Age 65+ Education Levels
28%
32%
17%
4% 11%
8%
< High School
High School / GED /
Equivalent
Some College
Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or
Professional Degree

32. Availability of Caregivers
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Millions
45-64 Primary Caregiving Years Age 75-84 Age 85+
1 : 19
1 : 17
1 : 17
1 : 14
1 : 11

33. Availability of Nursing Home Beds
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Millions
45-64 Primary Caregiving Years Age 75-84 Age 85+
1 : 7
1 : 10
1 : 13
1 : 16
1 : 24

34. Costs of Services for Seniors
2%
82%
7% 9%
DHHS Expenditures 2015
DOT 0.2%
DAAS 2.3%
DMA 81.6%
Mental Health 6.9%
Services for the Blind
0.04%
DSS 8.7%
Voc Rehab 0.2%

35. 2010 Poverty Status
9%
13%
21%
30%
Age 65-74 Age 75+
Below Poverty Level 100-199% of Poverty Level
2015 PL = $11,670

36. 2010 Employment
Persons age 65 and over in civilian labor
force (as % of age group) 14.3%
 Most people 65 and over retire (social security,
pensions, savings)
 Some work out of economic necessity
 Others for social contact, intellectual challenges
or sense of value
 The difference between labor force participation
in men and women has narrowed over time

37. 2010 Life Expectancy
 People are living longer
than ever before.
 Women live longer than
men.
 Increasing longevity -
rising medical costs &
increasing demands for
health services
 Life expectancy varies
between gender and race
Age Groups NC
60-64 22.7
65-69 18.8
70-74 15.3
75-79 12.0
80-84 9.2
85+ 6.8

38. Living Arrangements Age 65+
65%
9%
22%
4%Family
Household
Living Alone -
Men
Living Alone -
Women
Group Quarters

39. Leading Causes of Death 2010
Rank Cause
1 Heart disease
2 Cancer
3 Chronic lower respiratory diseases
4 Cerebrovascular diseases
5 Alzheimer’s disease

40. Leading Cause of Injury Death
FALLS

41. Additional Characteristics Age 65+
 23% are veterans 270,032
 82% own their homes
 29% live alone
 Median household income is
$35,237
Source: US Census Bureau, ACS 2007-2011

42. 16.3%
22.1%
61.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
One disability Two or more
disabilities
No disability
Source: ACS 2010, 1 year estimate
Age 65+ Disabilities

43. 2010 Disability Characteristics
Population 65 and over with a disability 38.4%
With an ambulatory difficulty 25.6%
With an independent living difficulty 16.7%
With a hearing difficulty 15.8%
With a cognitive difficulty 10.4%
With a self-care difficulty 9.2%
With a vision difficulty 7.9%
Source: ACS 2010, 1 year estimate

44. Source: State Center for Health Statistics, 2010
10%
25%
33%
21%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Excellent Very Good Good Fair Poor

45. Source: http://www.alz.org/alzheimers_disease_facts_and_figures.asp
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%Breast Cancer -
2%
Prostate Cancer
-8%
Heart Disease -
16%
Stroke -23%
HIV -42%
Alzheimer's
+68%

46. Hunger
 N.C. Food Insecurity Rating of 16.9% of age 60+
 Ranked 12th nationally for Senior Hunger (down
from 9th in 2010)
 Seniors are more likely to be food insecure if they
Live in a southern state
Are younger
Live with a grandchild
Are African American
Are Hispanic

47. Elder Care Workforce
Research studies agree:
Drastic workforce shortages will occur in the
jobs most critical for elder care over next 20-
30 years:
• Personal Care Aides
• Home Care Aides
• Nurses
• Physicians

48. High Growth Projected in
Healthcare Occupations
Projected 2012-2022
• Healthcare Support
Occupations: 28.1%
• Healthcare Practitioners &
Technical: 21.5%
• Personal Care & Service:
20.9%

49. Implications for Seniors
• Living Arrangements:
“Communal Art
Colonies”
• Manufacturing:
Senior-specific
products
• Technology:
Senior-friendly devices
• Primary Care:
Health centers and
clinics administered by
nurses
• Assisted living:
Younger seniors caring
for older seniors
• Lifestyle:
Preventive measures

50. Aging in Place ● Aging With Choice
 In-Home Aide Services
 Nutrition
 Transportation
 Caregiver Respite
 Socialization
 Healthy Living
 End-of-Life Planning

51. Importance of Aging
Demographics
 Targeting the need for senior adult services
Where?
Who?
 Identifying gaps in services
 Anticipating future needs for services
 Providing “proof” of the needs – grant
writing

52. Aging Resources
Allison Brown abrown@ptrc.org
NC DHHS DAAS
http://ncdhhs.gov/aging/
AARP: www.aarp.org
“Policy and Research”