2. Markets Rally
Risk Appetite Returns on Series of Positive News
• Eurozone: Concerted central bank action, ECB liquidity moves send yields down
• U.S.: Fed pledge to keep interest rates low, improving macro signals
• Asia: Monetary relaxation
2012 Performance Year‐to‐Feb. 29
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Singapore
Australia
India
Malaysia
Indonesia
Hong Kong
Japan
Thailand
China‐A
S&P Asia 50
China‐H
South Korea
Philippines
Taiwan
‐5%
‐10%
‐15%
‐20%
‐25%
‐30%
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg
2012 YTD 2011
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3. US Outlook
Slow Growth Expectation Unchanged, but Risk of Recession Lowered
4%
3.0% 3.0%
3%
2.3%
2.1% 2.1%
1.8% 1.7%
2%
1.3%
1%
Real GDP Growth
0.4%
0%
‐1%
‐2%
Revised higher
‐3%
‐4% ‐3.5%
09
10
12E
A
A
A
12E
1R
R
3E
11
11
11
11
201
20
20
201
20
1Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Chain Linked Annualized Full Year (YoY)
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
4. US Outlook
Base Case View – Equipment Spending Helps
20.0
15.0
Annualized Growth %
10.0
5.0
‐
(5.0)
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11e 1Q12e 2Q12e 3Q12e 4Q12e
Real GDP Consumer Spending
Equipment Spending Exports
State & Local Govt. Spending
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
5. Looking for Relief in Housing Prices
• We’ve seen a triple dip in home prices – and the weakness remains problematic for U.S. banks
• 4% fall possible but this should be the “final” botttom – rents are rising and inventory is slowly
shrinking
Ratio of avg. home price to avg. household disposable income
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2011
1975
1977Q2
1979Q3
1981Q4
1984
1986Q2
1988Q3
1990Q4
1993
1995Q2
1997Q3
1999Q4
2002
2004Q2
2006Q3
2008Q4
2013Q2
2015Q3
Existing New Quality‐adjusted
5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
6. Eurozone Outlook
Base Case View – Shallow 1H12 Recession
4 3.7
3
3
2.1
Real GDP Growth (%) YoY
2 1.7 1.8
1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
1 1 1 0.9 1
1 0.6 0.7
0.5 0.4 0.5
0 0 0
0 ‐0.1
Germany France Italy Spain Eurozone U.K.
‐1
‐1
‐2
2010 2011p 2012e 2013e
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
7. Eurozone Outlook
Debt Worry a Prolonged Overhang
• Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services stress test indicates a potential shortfall of EUR287 bln from
the existing European support mechanism and the IMF (or around 2.7% of combined 2010 GDP)
EUR bln 2011 2012 2013 2014
Scenario 1
Base‐case gross borrowing needs 1,664 1,677 1,375 1,237
Additional deficits 0 115 175 167
Bank recapitalization costs 0 39 39 39
Projected gross borrowing needs 1,664 1,831 1,588 1,443
Scenario 2
Base‐case gross borrowing needs 1,664 1,677 1,375 1,237
Additional deficits 0 156 219 247
Bank recapitalization costs 0 44 44 44
Projected gross borrowing needs 1,664 1,877 1,637 1,528
*Stress test scenarios are: (1) double dip recession and (2) double dip recession with an interest rate
shock. Includes Germany, France, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
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8. Eurozone Outlook
Improved Appetite, Liquidity Reflected in Bond Yields
39 8
34
7
29
Spain & Italy (%)
6
Greece (%)
24
19
5
14
4
9
4 3
0
1
‐1 0
1
‐ 10
0
1
0
‐ 11
‐11
0
‐12
1
‐11
9
0
‐11
t‐ 1
v ‐1
r‐1
y‐ 1
t‐1
r‐1
r‐ 1
c‐0
g‐1
c‐1
F eb
J ul
Ju l
Jan
J un
Sep
Feb
Oc
Ma
Oc
Ap
Ap
No
De
Au
Ma
De
Greece Spain Italy
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg
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9. China Outlook
No Repeat of Financial Crisis Lows
14
12
0.6
10 0.7 1.0
6.9
8.4
8 7.3 4.3
6.0 6.5 5.1 5.0
6.2 6.2 5.6 5.0 Slower growth
6
GDP Growth %
4
6.2 5.9
2 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.6 4.5 4.8 Slightly Slower
0 ‐0.4 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.5
‐1.2
‐2.9 ‐3.6 ‐3.6
‐2 ‐4.2
‐4
‐6
Expected to
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
improve in 2H12
Consum ption Gross Capital Formation Ne t Exports
Source: CEIC
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10. China Outlook
Manufacturing Appears to Have Bounced Off Recent Low
• Broad based recovery from November low may be driven by restocking
70
65
60
55
PMI (points)
50
45
40
35
30
‐ 08
‐ 10
2
7
9
1
9
0
1
‐09
‐11
8
8
9
0
0
1
8
b‐ 1
v‐ 0
y ‐0
y ‐1
y‐ 1
v‐0
g‐0
v ‐0
g‐ 0
g‐1
v ‐1
g‐ 1
v‐1
y ‐0
F eb
F eb
Feb
Feb
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
No
No
No
No
No
Au
Au
Fe
Au
Au
PMI New Orders Production
Employment Suppliers' Delivery Time Raw Material Inventory
Source: CEIC
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11. China Outlook
Loosening in Monetary Policy Likely
• A reduction in the exceptionally high RRR on track – is the preferred policy tool to
fine tune the economy. We see large banks RRR down to 19.0‐19.5%.
25.0 12.0
10.0
20.0
8.0
Interest Rate %
15.0
RRR %
6.0
10.0
4.0
5.0
2.0
0.0 0.0
6
4
9
6
3
0
‐94
‐01
‐ 08
‐92
‐99
0
97
1
p‐ 0
r‐8
r‐9
r‐ 0
r‐ 1
c‐9
c‐0
c‐1
c‐
J un
J un
Ju n
Sep
Sep
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
De
De
De
Se
De
RRR Lending Rate Time Deposit Rate SHIBOR 3 Mths Rate
Source: CEIC
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12. China Outlook
Interest rates unlikely to decline
• Deposits growth has lagged loans growth since Aug. 2011. Deposit rates will have
to rise in the mid‐term unless inflation falls sharply
Inflation vs. Interest Rates
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
%
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
- 07
-0 8
- 09
-1 0
2
7
8
9
10
11
-11
07
-08
09
10
11
n-1
y- 0
y- 0
y- 0
y-
y-
p-
p-
p-
p-
J an
n
Ja n
n
Ja n
p
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ja
Ma
Ma
Ja
Ja
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
CPI 3-Mths Time Deposit Rate 3-Mths SHIBOR
Source: CEIC
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13. China Outlook
Government may not expand agressively
• While we expect the PBoC to relax monetary policy somewhat, we do not expect
overall government policy to be aggressively accommodative for the following
reasons:
– Wages are still rising: indications of pockets of tight labor
– Government linked entities debt levels have risen
– Funding limitations
– Heightened risks of NPLs
• We suspect tolerance of sub‐8% GDP growth as long as unemployment does not rise
distinctly
• Seen in recent decision to reduce budgeted railway expansion
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14. Asia‐Pacific Outlook
Moderating Growth
Country
Annual real GDP growth (% )
Country 2009 2010 2011a/e 2012f
Australia 1.3 2.7 1.8‐2.3 2.2‐2.7
China 9.1 10.3 9.2 7.7‐8.2
Hong Kong ‐2.8 7.0 5.0 2.5‐3.0
India 6.8 8.9 7.3‐7.8 6.8‐7.3
Indonesia 4.5 6.1 6.5 6.0‐6.5
Japan ‐5.2 4.0 (2.3) 1.5‐2.0
Korea 0.2 6.2 3.6 2.8‐3.3
Malaysia ‐1.7 7.2 5.1 4.4‐4.9
Philippines 1.1 7.6 3.8 4.0‐4.5
Singapore ‐1.3 14.5 5.0 2.0‐2.5
Taiwan ‐1.9 10.9 4.5 2.3‐2.8
Thailand ‐2.2 7.8 0.1 3.5‐4.0
Source: S&P Capital IQ Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
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15. Risk of Oil Shock
• We see the WTI averaging USD101 in 2012, USD114 in 2013 – barring an oil shock that
could conceivably send prices up to USD150 and lead to a recession
150
130
110
USD/bbl
90
70
50
30
De 10
Ap 0
Ap 1
Oc 0
Oc 1
Sep 08
Ma ‐0 8
Ju l 8
Ma 08
Au 09
De 09
Au 10
Au 11
De 11
No 08
J un 9
Ju n 0
J un 1
‐12
Ma 08
Oc 9
F e 09
F eb 10
Feb 11
De 08
Ap 09
b‐ 1
g‐ 1
y‐ 0
r‐0
r‐ 1
‐1
r‐1
g‐0
g‐1
‐
‐
t‐
t‐
‐
t‐
‐
c‐
c‐
‐
v‐
r‐
‐
c‐
c‐
Jan
r
WTI Brent Dubai
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16. Equities Recovery to Continue
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17. Recovery has legs
• With our view that the global economic outlook will improve through 2012, we
believe higher beta markets should see a better year‐end performance.
• Second Greek bailout clears one hurdle but is priced‐in already. Key positive is that
yields of other sovereigns are declining.
• Higher beta / cyclical issues and markets may outperform on a recovery scenario.
• However, a short‐term pull back is possible given the strong start to the year.
• Risks:
– Rising oil prices
– Inflation may not ease as much as expected
– Excess liquidity from capital inflows into Asia raises bubble risk
– Eurozone overhang risk remains
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18. Hang Seng Still at Historically Attractive Valuation Levels
35,000 50
45
30,000
40
25,000 35
30
20,000
PER x
HSI
25
15,000
20
10,000 15
Still at
10
5,000 historically
5 attractive
levels
0 0
6
81
8
73
07
3
7
4
1
90
F eb‐8
Feb ‐0
A ug ‐9
No v‐9
Au g‐ 1
Aug‐7
M ay ‐
N ov‐
May‐
May ‐
'Hang Seng Index' PER
Source: CEIC
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19. FSSTI at Historically Attractive Valuation Levels
4,000 120.0
3,500
100.0
3,000
80.0
2,500
FSSTI
PERx
2,000 60.0
1,500
40.0
1,000
20.0
500
0 0.0
1
0
8
9
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
r‐ 9
r‐9
r‐ 0
r‐0
r‐0
r‐ 0
r‐0
r‐ 0
r‐0
r‐ 0
r‐0
r‐ 0
r‐1
r‐1
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
FSSTI PER x Std Dev ‐1
Source: S&P Capital IQ, CEIC
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20. Short and Shallow Pullback?
South Korea
S&P Asia 50
Hong Kong
Philippines
Singapore
Indonesia
Australia
Malaysia
Thailand
China‐H
China‐A
Taiwan
Japan
India
1.0%
0.0%
‐1.0%
‐2.0%
‐3.0%
‐4.0%
‐5.0%
‐6.0%
‐7.0%
‐8.0%
Source: Bloomberg
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21. S&P Asia 50 Sector Ratios and Recommended Weightings
S&P Asia 50 Recommended Sector Weightings (as of Feb.29, 2011)
YTD Rtn PER 2012 EPS 2011 EPS 2012 Div Yld 2012 PBV 2012 Recommended
% X YoY % YoY % est. % X S&P Sector Emphasis
Consumer Discretionary 6.4 11.1 0.8 12.0 1.2 1.8 Marketweight
Consumer Staples (0.7) 14.0 44.2 1.6 2.2 1.7 Overweight
Energy 21.1 9.8 36.6 9.7 3.8 1.6 Overweight
Financials ‐ Banks 20.7 8.1 39.2 7.6 4.9 1.4 Marketweight
Financials ‐ Insurance 26.7 16.2 42.8 38.5 1.6 2.4 Marketweight
Financials ‐ Real Estate 17.4 13.4 (11.6) (23.4) 3.1 0.9 Overweight
Industrials 20.6 14.0 (10.6) 10.4 2.7 1.6 Marketweight
Information Technology 14.7 12.5 (12.4) 18.7 2.1 2.3 Marketweight
Materials 12.8 15.7 (22.3) (6.9) 4.4 0.5 Marketweight
Telecom Services 7.3 11.0 26.9 2.4 4.4 1.9 Underweight
Utilities 3.8 19.7 5.2 7.4 2.7 2.1 Underweight
S&P Asia 50 11.1 11.5 21.8 9.6 3.6 1.8
Based on S&P Capital IQ market consensus estimates as of Feb. 29, 2012
Source: S&P Capital IQ
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22. S&P Capital IQ Research Technical View
• Current pullback may be over (if S&P 500 holds above Friday’s close of 1370) – indices
held up by some large caps
• Dow Jones Transports, S&P Materials and S&P Energy rebounded from support levels
• Sets up for decent push to 1400‐1440 for S&P 500
• US Dollar in midst of completing bullish double bottom and this my hurt precious
metals
– Hence, gold may face continued volatile trade
• Crude oil movement has not be sensitive to USD, could hit USD130 in 2Q and set the
market up for a more significant correction
– However, fundamentals and smart money trades do not align with this happening yet
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23. Summary ‐ Recommendations
• Periodic pull backs expected ‐ we see these to be shallow and short at this juncture
• Fresh leads are needed as market rises – could come from better housing data,
improved earnings outlooks, Eurozone recovery
• We regard recent pullback as an opportunity to pick up selective cyclical issues:
– Energy and Real Estate are still largely preferred but there are also select banks, consumer
and industrials names
– Continue to prefer oil over other commodities
• Defensive sectors (Consumer Staples, Telcos and Utilities) are likely to lag on a
recovery story although there may be positive from M&A drivers
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24. Thank You
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26. 2012 Global IT Spending Will Increase by +3.7% YoY
Spending in 2H12 expected to pick‐up, but Eurozone is a wildcard
Glo b al IT S p en d in g T racks Glo b al GD P Gro w th
5.00 8.0%
2008 Global GDP +1.5%
4.50 2009 Global GDP -2.3%
6.0%
2010 Global GDP +4.2%
4.00 S o urc e: Wo rld B ank
3.50 4.0%
3.00
2.0%
2.50
0.0%
2.00
1.50 -2.0%
1.00
-4.0%
0.50
0.00 -6.0%
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
G lo b a l IT Sp e n d in g (U SD trillio n s) G lo b a l IT Sp e n d in g (Y o Y c h a n g e )
Sourc e: Gartner (January 3, 2012 update)
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27. Technology Sectors
Hardware and Software spending above Global IT spending
Software Spending Resilient Throughout the Business Cycle
15%
YoY Change (%) 10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Telecom Services Hardware Software Global IT Spending
Source: Gartner (January 3, 2012 update)
To simplify, we have combined Telecom Equipment and Telecom Services into Telecom
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28. Technology Sectors
Technology Sub‐Industries and Companies
Telecom Services Hardware Software
Network Equipment Planning PCs Applications
Fixed-Line Telecom Services Implementation Servers Application development
Mobile Voice Support Monitors Deployment tools
Deeper look at
Data and Multimedia Services Operations Printers System Infrastructure
the various sub‐
Training Peripherals
industries
Education Mobile Phones/Smartphones
Tablets
Storage
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Telecom Services Hardware Software
AT&T Cognizant Tech Apple Microsoft
Americas Verizon Amdocs Intel Oracle
Cisco Systems Computer Sciences Corp. Qualcomm VMware
A list of public
BT Accenture Nokia SAP
companies in the
EMEA Vodafone Cap Gemini STMicroelectronics NA
various sub‐
Ericsson Atos SA Infineon NA
industries
China Mobile Tata Consultancy Samsung Electronics NA
Asia Pacific China Telecom Infosys TSMC NA
ZTE Wipro Hitachi NA
Source: S&P Capital IQ
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29. Asian IT Sector Dominated by Hardware
We will focus on Hardware
Telecom Services Hardware Software
AT&T Cognizant Tech Apple Microsoft
Americas Verizon Amdocs Intel Oracle
Cisco Systems Computer Sciences Corp. Qualcomm VMware
BT Accenture Nokia SAP
EMEA Vodafone Cap Gemini STMicroelectronics NA
Ericsson Atos SA Infineon NA
China Mobile Tata Consultancy Samsung Electronics NA
Asia Pacific China Telecom Infosys TSMC NA
ZTE Wipro Hitachi NA
Source: S&P Capital IQ
– Hardware market is interconnected via supply chain
– Services market still developing in Asia, dominated by Indian companies
– Limited Software industry outside the U.S. (excludes Internet companies)
– Software companies in China rising (based on China’s MIIT), but today most of these companies
are not standalone companies (i.e., Huawei, ZTE, Haier)
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30. Technology Supply Chain
A sample view of the hardware supply chain
6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
31. Technology Themes
Internet is the driving force for the hardware industry
• Mobile devices (semiconductors, hardware, software)
– Greater wireless broadband speeds, falling prices, desire for Internet/e‐mail access from any location for personal and
professional purposes
• Internet advertising (services)
– Users/usage of Internet increasing, spending still trailing activity on percentage basis, high relative ROI (with
sophisticated targeting, personalization, measurement, reporting)
• Electronic content in autos (semiconductors, hardware, software)
– Government pollution guidelines, safety and security regulations, and high oil prices
• Software as a service (SaaS) (software)
– Ease of deployment/customization, lower total cost of ownership, access from any Internet‐enabled device, scalability
• Solar energy (semiconductors)
– High oil prices, government subsidies, national/corporate/individual energy independence, conservation/sustainability,
nuclear questions
• Electronic Medical Records (semiconductors, hardware, software)
– Simplify transfer of medical records, lower costs of medical insurance/drugs, reduce human errors, new federal health
privacy laws
• Connected Home (semiconductors, hardware, software)
– Intelligent home electronic devices/appliances, enhanced electric power requirements, lower maintenance costs
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32. Previously, the PC market drove the Hardware market…
PC Shipments (units)
600
Notebook as % of total PC shipments
500
69%
400
67%
Units (millions)
300 64%
61%
59%
58%
200
100
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Global Desktops (units) Global Notebooks (units)
Source: IDC (December 2011update)
• Desktop units and ASP declining
• Notebooks units rising, while ASP declining
• Blended ASP declining
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33. Smartphone Units Rising
Industry shifting to high‐volume smartphone market
Mobile Phone and Smartphone Shipments
3500
Smartphones as % of
3000
total mobile phone shipments
2500 34%
32%
Units (millions)
30%
2000 28%
24%
1500 18%
1000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile Phone Shipments (units) Smartphone Shipments (units)
Source: IDC
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34. …Now, the smartphone market will drive the Hardware market
Smartphone and PCs are at inflection point
Smartphones vs. PCs shipments (units)
1200
1000
Inflection point
800
Units (millions)
600
400
200
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Smartphone Shipments (units) PC Shipments (units)
Source: IDC
• Dec 4Q11 Smartphone shipments totaled 158 million units
• Dec 4Q11 PC shipments forecasted to be 92 million units
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35. 2011 Stock Performance
Technology Stocks Performed Poorly, but better than S&P Asia 50
• On November 23, 2011, we raised our recommendation to Marketweight from Underweight
Asia 50 Stock Performance (2011)
10.0
5.0
0.0
Stock Performance (%)
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(20.0)
(25.0)
(30.0)
Financials - Real
Telecom
Discretionary
Utilities
Technology
Services
Energy
Materials
Industrials
Consumer
Financials -
Financials -
Information
S&P Asia 50
Insurance
Staples
Consumer
Banks
Estate
Source: S&P Capital IQ
– As of November 22, 2011, the Asian IT sector was in the negative territory
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36. 2012 Outlook Slightly More Positive
What’s Driving 2012 Outlook?
• Higher global GDP growth expectations vs. 2011
• IT Hardware supply/demand expected to rebalance sometime 2H12
• Smartphones shifting from high‐end/premium to high‐volume/lower price points
• Notebooks (Ultrabooks) could be fueled by Windows 8 (2H12)
• Signs of a bottom in the LCD TV market (lower global industry capacity)
• M&A: consolidation in the DRAM market (shifting to NAND) and more to come
• Valuation attractive ‐ multiple compression (2011)
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37. Asian IT Sector Challenges
Domestic consumption is key
• Exports primary driver
– Businesses tied to global macro environment
– Domestic consumption is low, but rising
• Higher inflation
– Negatively impacts profits
• Excess capacity
– China building capacity in various IT sectors
• Larger companies benefiting
– Shifts in product cycles benefiting mostly established players
– Smaller companies unable to maintain R&D investments
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38. 2012 Technology Performance (YTD)
Starting on a solid footing
Asia 50 Stock Performance (YTD, pricing as of 3/9/12)
30.0
25.0
20.0
Stock Performance (%)
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
(5.0)
(10.0)
Financials - Real
Telecom
Utilities
Discretionary
Services
Materials
Technology
Energy
Industrials
Consumer
Financials -
Financials -
Information
S&P Asia 50
Insurance
Staples
Consumer
Banks
Estate
Source: S&P Capital IQ
14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
39. Thank You
15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
41. Oil prices: where are we now vs 2008?
• Still some 14‐27% off July 2008 peak
USD/bbl
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
WTI Dated Brent Dubai
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg
2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
42. Demand Outlook (cont)
Emerging markets to drive oil demand in 2012
mbpd
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
China Middle East Brazil Africa India Russia North Japan Europe Others
America
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
Source: S&P Capital IQ, EIA
3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.