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Market Outlook
Shallow and Short Pullback
Lorraine Tan, CFA
March, 2012




Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
Copyright © 2012 Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw‐Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Markets Rally
     Risk Appetite Returns on Series of Positive News
     • Eurozone: Concerted central bank action, ECB liquidity moves send yields down
     • U.S.: Fed pledge to keep interest rates low, improving macro signals
     • Asia: Monetary relaxation
                                                                                       2012 Performance Year‐to‐Feb. 29
                                          25%

                                          20%

                                          15%

                                          10%

                                            5%

                                            0%




                                                                                                                                                        Singapore
                                                     Australia




                                                                                                   India




                                                                                                                               Malaysia
                                                                                                           Indonesia
                                                                                       Hong Kong




                                                                                                                       Japan




                                                                                                                                                                                              Thailand
                                                                 China‐A




                                                                                                                                                                                                         S&P Asia 50
                                                                           China‐H




                                                                                                                                                                    South Korea
                                                                                                                                          Philippines




                                                                                                                                                                                     Taiwan
                                           ‐5%

                                         ‐10%

                                         ‐15%

                                         ‐20%

                                         ‐25%

                                         ‐30%

     Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg
                                                                                     2012 YTD                                                                                     2011
2.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
US Outlook
     Slow Growth Expectation Unchanged, but Risk of Recession Lowered

                                                   4%
                                                                      3.0%                                      3.0%
                                                   3%
                                                                                                                                                                      2.3%
                                                                                                                                         2.1%            2.1%
                                                                                                   1.8%                         1.7%
                                                   2%
                                                                                      1.3%

                                                   1%
                                 Real GDP Growth




                                                                             0.4%

                                                   0%


                                                   ‐1%

                                                   ‐2%
                                                                                        Revised higher
                                                   ‐3%

                                                   ‐4%     ‐3.5%
                                                           09


                                                                      10




                                                                                                                                                     12E
                                                                                A


                                                                                         A


                                                                                                     A




                                                                                                                                          12E
                                                                                                                             1R
                                                                                                                 R




                                                                                                                                                                   3E
                                                                              11


                                                                                       11


                                                                                                   11


                                                                                                               11




                                                                                                                                                                201
                                                         20


                                                                   20




                                                                                                                          201




                                                                                                                                                   20
                                                                                                                                       1Q
                                                                           1Q


                                                                                    2Q


                                                                                                3Q


                                                                                                             4Q




                                                                 Chain Linked Annualized                                            Full Year (YoY)


     Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
3.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
US Outlook
     Base Case View – Equipment Spending Helps

                                                 20.0



                                                 15.0
                           Annualized Growth %




                                                 10.0



                                                  5.0



                                                 ‐



                                                 (5.0)
                                                         1Q11      2Q11          3Q11            4Q11e            1Q12e           2Q12e            3Q12e           4Q12e

                                                         Real GDP                                                        Consumer Spending
                                                         Equipment Spending                                              Exports
                                                         State & Local Govt. Spending
     Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
4.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Looking for Relief in Housing Prices

     • We’ve seen a triple dip in home prices – and the weakness remains problematic for U.S. banks
     • 4% fall possible but this should be the “final” botttom – rents are rising and inventory is slowly 
       shrinking
                                 Ratio of avg. home price to avg. household disposable income




                                                                                                4.5


                                                                                                4.0


                                                                                                3.5


                                                                                                3.0


                                                                                                2.5


                                                                                                2.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2011
                                                                                                      1975
                                                                                                             1977Q2
                                                                                                                      1979Q3
                                                                                                                               1981Q4
                                                                                                                                        1984
                                                                                                                                               1986Q2
                                                                                                                                                        1988Q3
                                                                                                                                                                 1990Q4
                                                                                                                                                                          1993
                                                                                                                                                                                 1995Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                          1997Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                   1999Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2004Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2006Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2008Q4


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2013Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2015Q3
                                                                                                                      Existing                                            New                                          Quality‐adjusted

5.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Eurozone Outlook
     Base Case View – Shallow 1H12 Recession

                                                     4    3.7

                                                                3
                                                     3

                                                                                                                                                               2.1
                           Real GDP Growth (%) YoY




                                                     2                         1.7                                                      1.8
                                                                      1.5   1.4              1.4                                            1.4
                                                                                       1                                        1                     1            0.9          1
                                                     1              0.6                                               0.7
                                                                                 0.5           0.4                                                                        0.5
                                                                                                           0                0                     0
                                                     0                                                         ‐0.1
                                                          Germany             France               Italy              Spain               Eurozone                   U.K.

                                                     ‐1
                                                                                                     ‐1

                                                     ‐2
                                                          2010                       2011p                           2012e                                2013e


     Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
6.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Eurozone Outlook 
     Debt Worry a Prolonged Overhang 
     • Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services stress test indicates a potential shortfall of EUR287 bln from 
       the existing European support mechanism and the IMF (or around 2.7% of combined 2010 GDP)

               EUR bln                                                                                          2011                 2012                   2013          2014
               Scenario 1
               Base‐case gross borrowing needs                                                                1,664                 1,677                 1,375           1,237
               Additional deficits                                                                                0                   115                   175             167
               Bank recapitalization costs                                                                        0                    39                    39              39
               Projected gross borrowing needs                                                                1,664                 1,831                 1,588           1,443
               Scenario 2
               Base‐case gross borrowing needs                                                                1,664                 1,677                 1,375           1,237
               Additional deficits                                                                                0                   156                   219             247
               Bank recapitalization costs                                                                        0                    44                    44              44
               Projected gross borrowing needs                                                                1,664                 1,877                 1,637           1,528
               *Stress test scenarios are: (1) double dip recession and (2) double dip recession with an interest rate 
               shock. Includes Germany, France, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland.
     Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
7.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Eurozone Outlook 
     Improved Appetite, Liquidity Reflected in Bond Yields 

                                  39                                                                                                                                      8

                                  34
                                                                                                                                                                          7
                                  29




                                                                                                                                                                              Spain & Italy (%)
                                                                                                                                                                          6
                     Greece (%)




                                  24

                                  19
                                                                                                                                                                          5

                                  14
                                                                                                                                                                          4
                                  9

                                  4                                                                                                                                       3
                                            0




                                            1
                                        ‐1 0




                                            1
                                        ‐ 10




                                            0



                                            1
                                            0




                                        ‐ 11




                                         ‐11
                                           0




                                        ‐12
                                           1




                                        ‐11
                                           9




                                           0




                                        ‐11


                                       t‐ 1
                                       v ‐1



                                       r‐1
                                       y‐ 1




                                       t‐1
                                       r‐1




                                       r‐ 1
                                       c‐0




                                      g‐1




                                       c‐1
                                  F eb




                                    J ul




                                    Ju l
                                   Jan




                                  J un



                                  Sep




                                  Feb
                                  Oc
                                  Ma
                                  Oc
                                  Ap




                                  Ap
                                  No




                                  De
                                  Au
                                  Ma
                                  De




                                                               Greece                                            Spain                                          Italy

     Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg
8.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
China Outlook
     No Repeat of Financial Crisis Lows 
                              14

                              12
                                                                                    0.6
                              10                                                              0.7        1.0
                                                                         6.9
                                                              8.4
                               8                   7.3                                                              4.3
                                   6.0                                              6.5                                        5.1                  5.0
                                          6.2                                                 6.2        5.6                             5.0                              Slower growth
                               6
               GDP Growth %




                               4
                                                                         6.2                                        5.9
                               2   4.3    3.8      4.0        4.4                   3.9       3.6        3.8                  4.6        4.5        4.8                   Slightly Slower
                               0                                                                                   ‐0.4       ‐0.1       ‐0.1       ‐0.5
                                                                        ‐1.2
                                          ‐2.9     ‐3.6      ‐3.6
                              ‐2   ‐4.2

                              ‐4

                              ‐6
                                                                                                                                                                  Expected to 
                                   1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
                                                                                                                                                                  improve in 2H12
                                          Consum ption                         Gross Capital Formation                               Ne t Exports




     Source: CEIC
9.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
China Outlook
      Manufacturing Appears to Have Bounced Off Recent Low 
        • Broad based recovery from November low may be driven by restocking
                                    70

                                    65

                                    60

                                    55
                     PMI (points)




                                    50

                                    45

                                    40

                                    35

                                    30
                                         ‐ 08




                                         ‐ 10




                                            2
                                            7




                                            9




                                            1
                                            9




                                            0




                                            1
                                         ‐09




                                         ‐11
                                            8

                                            8




                                            9




                                            0

                                            0




                                            1
                                            8




                                       b‐ 1
                                       v‐ 0
                                       y ‐0




                                       y ‐1




                                       y‐ 1
                                       v‐0




                                       g‐0

                                       v ‐0




                                       g‐ 0




                                       g‐1

                                       v ‐1




                                       g‐ 1

                                       v‐1
                                       y ‐0
                                    F eb




                                    F eb
                                    Feb




                                    Feb
                                    Ma
                                    Ma




                                    Ma




                                    Ma
                                    No




                                    No




                                    No




                                    No




                                    No
                                    Au




                                    Au




                                    Fe
                                    Au




                                    Au
                                         PMI                                          New Orders                                     Production
                                         Employment                                   Suppliers' Delivery Time                       Raw Material Inventory

      Source: CEIC
10.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
China Outlook
      Loosening in Monetary Policy Likely 
        • A reduction in the exceptionally high RRR on track – is the preferred policy tool to 
          fine tune the economy. We see large banks RRR down to 19.0‐19.5%.
                                        25.0                                                                                                                        12.0


                                                                                                                                                                    10.0
                                        20.0

                                                                                                                                                                    8.0




                                                                                                                                                                           Interest Rate %
                                        15.0
                                RRR %




                                                                                                                                                                    6.0

                                        10.0
                                                                                                                                                                    4.0

                                         5.0
                                                                                                                                                                    2.0


                                         0.0                                                                                                                        0.0



                                                                                                                     6
                                                                                                                     4
                                             9




                                                                               6




                                                                                                                    3




                                                                                                                    0
                                                                    ‐94




                                                                                                       ‐01




                                                                                                                 ‐ 08
                                                            ‐92




                                                                                               ‐99
                                                     0




                                                                                      97




                                                                                                                    1
                                                                                                                p‐ 0
                                          r‐8




                                                                            r‐9




                                                                                                                r‐ 0




                                                                                                                r‐ 1
                                                  c‐9




                                                                                                                c‐0




                                                                                                                c‐1
                                                                                      c‐
                                                                  J un




                                                                                                     J un




                                                                                                             Ju n
                                                         Sep




                                                                                            Sep
                                        Ma




                                                                          Ma




                                                                                                             Ma




                                                                                                             Ma
                                                 De




                                                                                                             De




                                                                                                             De
                                                                                                             Se
                                                                                   De




                                                        RRR              Lending Rate                   Time Deposit Rate                     SHIBOR 3 Mths Rate
      Source: CEIC
11.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
China Outlook
      Interest rates unlikely to decline
        • Deposits growth has lagged loans growth since Aug. 2011. Deposit rates will have 
          to rise in the mid‐term unless inflation falls sharply
                                                                               Inflation vs. Interest Rates
                                      10.0

                                       8.0

                                       6.0

                                       4.0
                             %




                                       2.0

                                       0.0

                                      -2.0

                                      -4.0
                                         - 07




                                                                   -0 8




                                                                                             - 09




                                                                                                                       -1 0




                                                                                                                                                                          2
                                                   7




                                                                             8




                                                                                                       9




                                                                                                                                10




                                                                                                                                                        11
                                                                                                                                                -11
                                                           07




                                                                                     -08




                                                                                                               09




                                                                                                                                        10




                                                                                                                                                                11
                                                                                                                                                                      n-1
                                                  y- 0




                                                                            y- 0




                                                                                                      y- 0




                                                                                                                                 y-




                                                                                                                                                         y-
                                                            p-




                                                                                                                p-




                                                                                                                                         p-




                                                                                                                                                                 p-
                                       J an




                                                                    n




                                                                                           Ja n




                                                                                                                        n




                                                                                                                                              Ja n
                                                                                      p
                                                Ma




                                                                          Ma




                                                                                                    Ma




                                                                                                                                                                      Ja
                                                                                                                              Ma




                                                                                                                                                      Ma
                                                                 Ja




                                                                                                                     Ja
                                                         Se




                                                                                   Se




                                                                                                             Se




                                                                                                                                      Se




                                                                                                                                                              Se
                                                         CPI                              3-Mths Time Deposit Rate                                    3-Mths SHIBOR
      Source: CEIC
12.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
China Outlook
      Government may not expand agressively
      • While we expect the PBoC to relax monetary policy somewhat, we do not expect 
        overall government policy to be aggressively accommodative for the following 
        reasons:
               – Wages are still rising: indications of pockets of tight labor
               – Government linked entities debt levels have risen
               – Funding limitations
               – Heightened risks of NPLs

      • We suspect tolerance of sub‐8% GDP growth as long as unemployment does not rise 
        distinctly
      • Seen in recent decision to reduce budgeted railway expansion




13.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Asia‐Pacific Outlook
      Moderating Growth

                                          Country
                                                                                       Annual real GDP growth (% )
                                          Country                                   2009       2010     2011a/e                                                 2012f
                                          Australia                                  1.3         2.7     1.8‐2.3                                               2.2‐2.7
                                          China                                      9.1        10.3         9.2                                               7.7‐8.2
                                          Hong Kong                                   ‐2.8                       7.0                     5.0                   2.5‐3.0
                                          India                                        6.8                       8.9                 7.3‐7.8                   6.8‐7.3
                                          Indonesia                                    4.5                       6.1                     6.5                   6.0‐6.5
                                          Japan                                       ‐5.2                       4.0                   (2.3)                   1.5‐2.0
                                          Korea                                        0.2                       6.2                     3.6                   2.8‐3.3
                                          Malaysia                                    ‐1.7                       7.2                     5.1                   4.4‐4.9
                                          Philippines                                  1.1                       7.6                     3.8                   4.0‐4.5
                                          Singapore                                   ‐1.3                      14.5                     5.0                   2.0‐2.5
                                          Taiwan                                      ‐1.9                      10.9                     4.5                   2.3‐2.8
                                          Thailand                                    ‐2.2                       7.8                     0.1                   3.5‐4.0
      Source: S&P Capital IQ Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
14.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Risk of Oil Shock

      • We see the WTI averaging USD101 in 2012, USD114 in 2013 – barring an oil shock that 
        could conceivably send prices up to USD150 and lead to a recession
                                   150


                                   130


                                   110
                         USD/bbl




                                   90


                                   70


                                   50


                                   30


                                   De 10
                                   Ap 0




                                   Ap 1
                                   Oc 0




                                   Oc 1
                                   Sep 08
                                   Ma ‐0 8
                                     Ju l 8
                                   Ma 08




                                   Au 09

                                   De 09




                                   Au 10




                                   Au 11

                                   De 11
                                   No 08




                                   J un 9




                                   Ju n 0




                                   J un 1




                                         ‐12
                                   Ma 08




                                   Oc 9

                                   F e 09




                                   F eb 10




                                   Feb 11
                                   De 08

                                   Ap 09




                                       b‐ 1



                                       g‐ 1
                                       y‐ 0




                                       r‐0




                                       r‐ 1




                                         ‐1
                                       r‐1
                                       g‐0




                                       g‐1
                                         ‐




                                         ‐

                                       t‐




                                        t‐




                                         ‐

                                       t‐
                                         ‐

                                       c‐




                                       c‐
                                         ‐

                                       v‐

                                       r‐




                                         ‐
                                       c‐




                                       c‐
                                    Jan
                                       r




                                                                WTI                                         Brent                                         Dubai
15.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Equities Recovery to Continue




16.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Recovery has legs

      • With our view that the global economic outlook will improve through 2012, we 
        believe higher beta markets should see a better year‐end performance. 
      • Second Greek bailout clears one hurdle but is priced‐in already. Key positive is that 
        yields of other sovereigns are declining.
      • Higher beta / cyclical issues and markets may outperform on a recovery scenario.
      • However, a short‐term pull back is possible given the strong start to the year.
      • Risks: 
               – Rising oil prices
               – Inflation may not ease as much as expected
               – Excess liquidity from capital inflows into Asia raises bubble risk
               – Eurozone overhang risk remains



17.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Hang Seng Still at Historically Attractive Valuation Levels

             35,000                                                                                                                                                        50
                                                                                                                                                                           45
             30,000
                                                                                                                                                                           40
             25,000                                                                                                                                                        35
                                                                                                                                                                           30
             20,000




                                                                                                                                                                                PER x
       HSI




                                                                                                                                                                           25
             15,000
                                                                                                                                                                           20

             10,000                                                                                                                                                        15
                                                                                                                                                                                        Still at 
                                                                                                                                                                           10
               5,000                                                                                                                                                                    historically 
                                                                                                                                                                           5            attractive 
                                                                                                                                                                                        levels
                      0                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                                      6
                                                      81




                                                                                                                       8
                          73




                                                                                                                                                    07
                                                                                                                                      3
                                           7




                                                                                                        4




                                                                                                                                                                     1
                                                                                       90
                                                                   F eb‐8




                                                                                                                                Feb ‐0
                                                                                                 A ug ‐9


                                                                                                                No v‐9




                                                                                                                                                              Au g‐ 1
                                     Aug‐7




                                                                                                                                              M ay ‐
                                                    N ov‐
                      May‐




                                                                                  May ‐




                                                        'Hang Seng Index'                                                                       PER
      Source: CEIC
18.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
FSSTI at Historically Attractive Valuation Levels


                                             4,000                                                                                                                   120.0

                                             3,500
                                                                                                                                                                     100.0
                                             3,000
                                                                                                                                                                     80.0
                                             2,500
                                     FSSTI




                                                                                                                                                                             PERx
                                             2,000                                                                                                                   60.0

                                             1,500
                                                                                                                                                                     40.0
                                             1,000
                                                                                                                                                                     20.0
                                              500

                                                0                                                                                                                    0.0
                                                       1




                                                       0
                                                      8

                                                      9

                                                      0



                                                      2

                                                      3

                                                      4

                                                      5

                                                      6

                                                      7

                                                      8

                                                      9



                                                      1
                                                 r‐ 9

                                                  r‐9

                                                  r‐ 0

                                                  r‐0

                                                  r‐0

                                                 r‐ 0

                                                  r‐0

                                                 r‐ 0

                                                  r‐0

                                                  r‐ 0

                                                  r‐0

                                                  r‐ 0

                                                  r‐1

                                                  r‐1
                                               Ap



                                               Ap




                                               Ap



                                               Ap
                                               Ap



                                               Ap



                                               Ap

                                               Ap

                                               Ap

                                               Ap

                                               Ap

                                               Ap



                                               Ap



                                               Ap
                                                       FSSTI                                         PER x                                          Std Dev ‐1


      Source: S&P Capital IQ, CEIC
19.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Short and Shallow Pullback? 




                                                                                                           South Korea




                                                                                                                                                                                           S&P Asia 50
                                                      Hong Kong




                                                                                                                                                                             Philippines
                                                                                      Singapore




                                                                                                                                           Indonesia
                                                                  Australia




                                                                                                                                                                  Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                       Thailand
                                            China‐H




                                                                                                                                 China‐A
                                                                                                  Taiwan




                                                                                                                         Japan
                                                                              India
                             1.0%
                             0.0%

                           ‐1.0%

                           ‐2.0%
                           ‐3.0%

                           ‐4.0%

                           ‐5.0%
                           ‐6.0%

                           ‐7.0%

                           ‐8.0%



      Source: Bloomberg
20.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
S&P Asia 50 Sector Ratios and Recommended Weightings


        S&P Asia 50 Recommended Sector Weightings (as of Feb.29, 2011)
                                                          YTD Rtn            PER 2012             EPS 2011            EPS 2012           Div Yld 2012          PBV 2012      Recommended
                                                              %                    X                YoY %               YoY %                est. %                  X     S&P Sector Emphasis
        Consumer Discretionary                              6.4                 11.1                 0.8                 12.0                 1.2                  1.8        Marketweight
        Consumer Staples                                    (0.7)               14.0                 44.2                 1.6                 2.2                  1.7         Overweight
        Energy                                              21.1                 9.8                 36.6                 9.7                 3.8                  1.6         Overweight
        Financials ‐ Banks                                  20.7                 8.1                 39.2                 7.6                 4.9                  1.4        Marketweight
        Financials ‐ Insurance                              26.7                16.2                 42.8                38.5                 1.6                  2.4        Marketweight
        Financials ‐ Real Estate                            17.4                13.4                (11.6)               (23.4)               3.1                  0.9         Overweight
        Industrials                                         20.6                14.0                (10.6)               10.4                 2.7                  1.6        Marketweight
        Information Technology                              14.7                12.5                (12.4)               18.7                 2.1                  2.3        Marketweight
        Materials                                           12.8                15.7                (22.3)               (6.9)                4.4                  0.5        Marketweight
        Telecom Services                                    7.3                 11.0                 26.9                 2.4                 4.4                  1.9        Underweight
        Utilities                                           3.8                 19.7                 5.2                  7.4                 2.7                  2.1        Underweight
        S&P Asia 50                                         11.1                11.5                 21.8                 9.6                 3.6                  1.8

         Based on S&P Capital IQ market consensus estimates as of Feb. 29, 2012




      Source: S&P Capital IQ
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S&P Capital IQ Research Technical View

      • Current pullback may be over (if S&P 500 holds above Friday’s close of 1370) – indices 
        held up by some large caps
      • Dow Jones Transports, S&P Materials and S&P Energy rebounded from support levels
      • Sets up for decent push to 1400‐1440 for S&P 500  
      • US Dollar in midst of completing bullish double bottom and this my hurt precious 
        metals
               – Hence, gold may face continued volatile trade

      • Crude oil movement has not be sensitive to USD, could hit USD130 in 2Q and set the 
        market up for a more significant correction
               – However, fundamentals and smart money trades do not align with this happening yet




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Summary ‐ Recommendations

      • Periodic pull backs expected  ‐ we see these to be shallow and short at this juncture
      • Fresh leads are needed as market rises – could come from better housing data, 
        improved earnings outlooks, Eurozone recovery
      • We regard recent pullback as an opportunity to pick up selective cyclical issues: 
               – Energy and Real Estate are still largely preferred but there are also select banks, consumer 
                 and industrials names
               – Continue to prefer oil over other commodities

      • Defensive sectors (Consumer Staples, Telcos and Utilities) are likely to lag on a 
        recovery story although there may be positive from M&A drivers




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Thank You




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2012 Technology Outlook
The Tide is Turning
Technology Outlook Seminar

Apurva Patel
March 14, 2012

Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
Copyright © 2012 Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw‐Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
2012 Global IT Spending Will Increase by +3.7% YoY
     Spending in 2H12 expected to pick‐up, but Eurozone is a wildcard


                                                                     Glo b al IT S p en d in g T racks Glo b al GD P Gro w th
                                5.00                                                                                                                                                     8.0%
                                         2008 Global GDP +1.5%
                                4.50     2009 Global GDP -2.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                         6.0%
                                         2010 Global GDP +4.2%
                                4.00     S o urc e: Wo rld B ank

                                3.50                                                                                                                                                     4.0%


                                3.00
                                                                                                                                                                                         2.0%
                                2.50
                                                                                                                                                                                         0.0%
                                2.00

                                1.50                                                                                                                                                     -2.0%

                                1.00
                                                                                                                                                                                         -4.0%
                                0.50

                                0.00                                                                                                                                                     -6.0%
                                           2008A              2009A                 2010A                2011E    2012E            2013E                 2014E                 2015E
                                                        G lo b a l IT Sp e n d in g (U SD trillio n s)                                G lo b a l IT Sp e n d in g (Y o Y c h a n g e )
                                   Sourc e: Gartner (January 3, 2012 update)




2.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Technology Sectors
     Hardware and Software spending above Global IT spending
                                                                            Software Spending Resilient Throughout the Business Cycle
                                                        15%



                                       YoY Change (%)   10%



                                                         5%



                                                         0%



                                                        -5%



                                                        -10%



                                                        -15%
                                                                      2009A           2010A           2011E          2012E       2013E              2014E             2015E
                                                                  Telecom               Services              Hardware         Software                 Global IT Spending
                                                               Source: Gartner (January 3, 2012 update)




       To simplify, we have combined Telecom Equipment and Telecom Services into Telecom


3.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Technology Sectors
     Technology Sub‐Industries and Companies 
                     Telecom                                 Services                            Hardware                            Software
                 Network Equipment                           Planning                              PCs                              Applications

           Fixed-Line Telecom Services                    Implementation                          Servers                    Application development

                     Mobile Voice                             Support                             Monitors                       Deployment tools
                                                                                                                                                                           Deeper look at 
          Data and Multimedia Services                      Operations                            Printers                    System Infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                                          the various sub‐
                                                              Training                          Peripherals
                                                                                                                                                                             industries
                                                             Education               Mobile Phones/Smartphones

                                                                                                  Tablets

                                                                                                  Storage
         Source: S&P Capital IQ

                                                                         Telecom                            Services                              Hardware                        Software
                                                                          AT&T                            Cognizant Tech                            Apple                         Microsoft

                                             Americas                    Verizon                               Amdocs                                Intel                         Oracle

                                                                     Cisco Systems                  Computer Sciences Corp.                      Qualcomm                         VMware
         A list of public 
                                                                            BT                                Accenture                              Nokia                          SAP
        companies in the 
                                                 EMEA                    Vodafone                            Cap Gemini                     STMicroelectronics                       NA
          various sub‐
                                                                         Ericsson                              Atos SA                             Infineon                          NA
           industries
                                                                      China Mobile                       Tata Consultancy                  Samsung Electronics                       NA

                                           Asia Pacific              China Telecom                              Infosys                             TSMC                             NA
                                                                      ZTE                                       Wipro                               Hitachi                          NA
                                                          Source: S&P Capital IQ




4.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Asian IT Sector Dominated by Hardware
     We will focus on Hardware
                                                       Telecom                             Services                              Hardware                             Software
                                                        AT&T                             Cognizant Tech                            Apple                              Microsoft

                            Americas                    Verizon                               Amdocs                                Intel                                 Oracle

                                                    Cisco Systems                  Computer Sciences Corp.                      Qualcomm                                  VMware
                                                           BT                                Accenture                             Nokia                                   SAP

                                EMEA                   Vodafone                            Cap Gemini                      STMicroelectronics                              NA

                                                        Ericsson                              Atos SA                             Infineon                                 NA

                                                     China Mobile                       Tata Consultancy                  Samsung Electronics                              NA

                         Asia Pacific              China Telecom                              Infosys                              TSMC                                    NA
                                                     ZTE                                       Wipro                               Hitachi                                 NA
                                         Source: S&P Capital IQ



                                – Hardware market is interconnected via supply chain
                                – Services market still developing in Asia, dominated by Indian companies
                                – Limited Software industry outside the U.S. (excludes Internet companies)
                                – Software companies in China rising (based on China’s MIIT), but today most of these companies 
                                  are not standalone companies (i.e., Huawei, ZTE, Haier)




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Technology Supply Chain
     A sample view of the hardware supply chain 




6.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Technology Themes 
     Internet is the driving force for the hardware industry
     • Mobile devices (semiconductors, hardware, software)
              – Greater wireless broadband speeds, falling prices, desire for Internet/e‐mail access from any location for personal and 
                professional purposes
     • Internet advertising (services)
              – Users/usage of Internet increasing, spending still trailing activity on percentage basis, high relative ROI (with 
                sophisticated targeting, personalization, measurement, reporting)
     • Electronic content in autos (semiconductors, hardware, software)
              – Government pollution guidelines, safety and security regulations, and high oil prices
     • Software as a service (SaaS) (software)
              – Ease of deployment/customization, lower total cost of ownership, access from any Internet‐enabled device, scalability
     • Solar energy (semiconductors)
              – High oil prices, government subsidies, national/corporate/individual energy independence, conservation/sustainability, 
                nuclear questions
     • Electronic Medical Records (semiconductors, hardware, software)
              – Simplify transfer of medical records, lower costs of medical insurance/drugs, reduce human errors, new federal health 
                privacy laws
     • Connected Home (semiconductors, hardware, software)
              – Intelligent home electronic devices/appliances, enhanced electric power requirements, lower maintenance costs




7.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Previously, the PC market drove the Hardware market…

                                                                                                           PC Shipments (units)
                                                             600


                                                                       Notebook as % of total PC shipments
                                                             500

                                                                                                                                                                    69%

                                                             400
                                                                                                                                               67%
                                          Units (millions)




                                                             300                                                          64%
                                                                                                              61%
                                                                                              59%
                                                                         58%
                                                             200



                                                             100



                                                               0
                                                                          2010                 2011           2012        2013                 2014                 2015
                                                                                 Global Desktops (units)                            Global Notebooks (units)
                                                                   Source: IDC (December 2011update)

     • Desktop units and ASP declining
     • Notebooks units rising, while ASP declining
     • Blended ASP declining


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Smartphone Units Rising
     Industry shifting to high‐volume smartphone market
                                                                                       Mobile Phone and Smartphone Shipments
                                                              3500


                                                                     Smartphones as % of
                                                              3000
                                                                     total mobile phone shipments

                                                              2500                                                                                              34%
                                                                                                                                            32%
                                           Units (millions)


                                                                                                                        30%
                                                              2000                                        28%
                                                                                          24%
                                                              1500      18%


                                                              1000


                                                               500


                                                                 0
                                                                        2010               2011           2012           2013                2014               2015
                                                                         Mobile Phone Shipments (units)                         Smartphone Shipments (units)
                                                                 Source: IDC




9.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
…Now, the smartphone market will drive the Hardware market
      Smartphone and PCs are at inflection point
                                                                                               Smartphones vs. PCs shipments (units)
                                                              1200



                                                              1000
                                                                                          Inflection point

                                                              800
                                           Units (millions)




                                                              600



                                                              400



                                                              200



                                                                 0
                                                                           2010                 2011             2012   2013               2014                2015


                                                                                  Smartphone Shipments (units)                        PC Shipments (units)

                                                                     Source: IDC


        • Dec 4Q11 Smartphone shipments totaled 158 million units
        • Dec 4Q11 PC shipments forecasted to be 92 million units



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2011 Stock Performance
      Technology Stocks Performed Poorly, but better than S&P Asia 50
      • On November 23, 2011, we raised our recommendation to Marketweight from Underweight

                                                                                                                        Asia 50 Stock Performance (2011)


                                                                   10.0

                                                                     5.0

                                                                     0.0
                                           Stock Performance (%)




                                                                    (5.0)

                                                                   (10.0)

                                                                   (15.0)

                                                                   (20.0)

                                                                   (25.0)

                                                                   (30.0)




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Financials - Real
                                                                                                                       Telecom
                                                                             Discretionary


                                                                                             Utilities



                                                                                                         Technology



                                                                                                                       Services




                                                                                                                                             Energy




                                                                                                                                                                    Materials



                                                                                                                                                                                Industrials
                                                                                                                                  Consumer




                                                                                                                                                                                              Financials -




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Financials -
                                                                                                         Information




                                                                                                                                                      S&P Asia 50




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Insurance
                                                                                                                                   Staples
                                                                               Consumer




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Banks



                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Estate
                                                                            Source: S&P Capital IQ


               – As of November 22, 2011, the Asian IT sector was in the negative territory




11.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
2012 Outlook Slightly More Positive
      What’s Driving 2012 Outlook?
      • Higher global GDP growth expectations vs. 2011
      • IT Hardware supply/demand expected to rebalance sometime 2H12
      • Smartphones shifting from high‐end/premium to high‐volume/lower price points
      • Notebooks (Ultrabooks) could be fueled by Windows 8 (2H12)
      • Signs of a bottom in the LCD TV market (lower global industry capacity)
      • M&A: consolidation in the DRAM market (shifting to NAND) and more to come
      • Valuation attractive ‐ multiple compression (2011)




12.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Asian IT Sector Challenges
      Domestic consumption is key
      • Exports primary driver
               – Businesses tied to global macro environment
               – Domestic consumption is low, but rising
      • Higher inflation
               – Negatively impacts profits
      • Excess capacity
               – China building capacity in various IT sectors
      • Larger companies benefiting
               – Shifts in product cycles benefiting mostly established players
               – Smaller companies unable to maintain R&D investments




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2012 Technology Performance (YTD) 
      Starting on a solid footing


                                                                                                    Asia 50 Stock Performance (YTD, pricing as of 3/9/12)


                                                                   30.0

                                                                   25.0

                                                                   20.0
                                           Stock Performance (%)




                                                                   15.0

                                                                   10.0

                                                                     5.0

                                                                     0.0

                                                                    (5.0)

                                                                   (10.0)




                                                                                                                                                          Financials - Real
                                                                                                                     Telecom
                                                                                        Utilities



                                                                                                     Discretionary



                                                                                                                     Services


                                                                                                                                Materials




                                                                                                                                                                                             Technology




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Energy



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Industrials
                                                                             Consumer




                                                                                                                                                                              Financials -




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Financials -
                                                                                                                                                                                             Information
                                                                                                                                            S&P Asia 50




                                                                                                                                                                              Insurance
                                                                              Staples




                                                                                                       Consumer




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Banks
                                                                                                                                                               Estate
                                                                            Source: S&P Capital IQ




14.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Thank You




15.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.    
Oil & Gas Sector Update
Increasing Supply Side Risks

Ahmad Halim, CFA
March 14, 2012




Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
Copyright © 2012 Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw‐Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Oil prices: where are we now vs 2008?

     • Still some 14‐27% off July 2008 peak
                       USD/bbl
                       160


                       140


                       120


                       100


                        80


                        60


                        40


                        20


                          0
                         Mar-02          Mar-03         Mar-04       Mar-05         Mar-06         Mar-07        Mar-08         Mar-09         Mar-10        Mar-11       Mar-12
                                                  WTI                                             Dated Brent                                               Dubai



     Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg
2.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
Demand Outlook (cont)
     Emerging markets to drive oil demand in 2012
               mbpd
               0.60


                0.50


                0.40


                0.30


                0.20


                0.10


                0.00
                              China      Middle East          Brazil           Africa            India           Russia          North             Japan           Europe   Others
                                                                                                                                America
               -0.10


               -0.20


               -0.30




     Source: S&P Capital IQ, EIA
3.   Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks
S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks

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S&P Capital IQ Market Outlook 2012; Tech & O&G sector outlooks

  • 2. Markets Rally Risk Appetite Returns on Series of Positive News • Eurozone: Concerted central bank action, ECB liquidity moves send yields down • U.S.: Fed pledge to keep interest rates low, improving macro signals • Asia: Monetary relaxation 2012 Performance Year‐to‐Feb. 29 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Singapore Australia India Malaysia Indonesia Hong Kong Japan Thailand China‐A S&P Asia 50 China‐H South Korea Philippines Taiwan ‐5% ‐10% ‐15% ‐20% ‐25% ‐30% Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg 2012 YTD 2011 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 3. US Outlook Slow Growth Expectation Unchanged, but Risk of Recession Lowered 4% 3.0% 3.0% 3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2% 1.3% 1% Real GDP Growth 0.4% 0% ‐1% ‐2% Revised higher ‐3% ‐4% ‐3.5% 09 10 12E A A A 12E 1R R 3E 11 11 11 11 201 20 20 201 20 1Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Chain Linked Annualized Full Year (YoY) Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services 3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 4. US Outlook Base Case View – Equipment Spending Helps 20.0 15.0 Annualized Growth % 10.0 5.0 ‐ (5.0) 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11e 1Q12e 2Q12e 3Q12e 4Q12e Real GDP Consumer Spending Equipment Spending Exports State & Local Govt. Spending Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services 4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 5. Looking for Relief in Housing Prices • We’ve seen a triple dip in home prices – and the weakness remains problematic for U.S. banks • 4% fall possible but this should be the “final” botttom – rents are rising and inventory is slowly  shrinking Ratio of avg. home price to avg. household disposable income 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2011 1975 1977Q2 1979Q3 1981Q4 1984 1986Q2 1988Q3 1990Q4 1993 1995Q2 1997Q3 1999Q4 2002 2004Q2 2006Q3 2008Q4 2013Q2 2015Q3 Existing New Quality‐adjusted 5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 6. Eurozone Outlook Base Case View – Shallow 1H12 Recession 4 3.7 3 3 2.1 Real GDP Growth (%) YoY 2 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1 1 1 0.9 1 1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0 0 0 0 ‐0.1 Germany France Italy Spain Eurozone U.K. ‐1 ‐1 ‐2 2010 2011p 2012e 2013e Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services 6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 7. Eurozone Outlook  Debt Worry a Prolonged Overhang  • Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services stress test indicates a potential shortfall of EUR287 bln from  the existing European support mechanism and the IMF (or around 2.7% of combined 2010 GDP) EUR bln 2011 2012 2013 2014 Scenario 1 Base‐case gross borrowing needs 1,664 1,677 1,375 1,237 Additional deficits 0 115 175 167 Bank recapitalization costs 0 39 39 39 Projected gross borrowing needs 1,664 1,831 1,588 1,443 Scenario 2 Base‐case gross borrowing needs 1,664 1,677 1,375 1,237 Additional deficits 0 156 219 247 Bank recapitalization costs 0 44 44 44 Projected gross borrowing needs 1,664 1,877 1,637 1,528 *Stress test scenarios are: (1) double dip recession and (2) double dip recession with an interest rate  shock. Includes Germany, France, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland. Source: S&P Capital IQ, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services 7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 8. Eurozone Outlook  Improved Appetite, Liquidity Reflected in Bond Yields  39 8 34 7 29 Spain & Italy (%) 6 Greece (%) 24 19 5 14 4 9 4 3 0 1 ‐1 0 1 ‐ 10 0 1 0 ‐ 11 ‐11 0 ‐12 1 ‐11 9 0 ‐11 t‐ 1 v ‐1 r‐1 y‐ 1 t‐1 r‐1 r‐ 1 c‐0 g‐1 c‐1 F eb J ul Ju l Jan J un Sep Feb Oc Ma Oc Ap Ap No De Au Ma De Greece Spain Italy Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg 8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 9. China Outlook No Repeat of Financial Crisis Lows  14 12 0.6 10 0.7 1.0 6.9 8.4 8 7.3 4.3 6.0 6.5 5.1 5.0 6.2 6.2 5.6 5.0 Slower growth 6 GDP Growth % 4 6.2 5.9 2 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.6 4.5 4.8 Slightly Slower 0 ‐0.4 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.5 ‐1.2 ‐2.9 ‐3.6 ‐3.6 ‐2 ‐4.2 ‐4 ‐6 Expected to  1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 improve in 2H12 Consum ption Gross Capital Formation Ne t Exports Source: CEIC 9. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 10. China Outlook Manufacturing Appears to Have Bounced Off Recent Low  • Broad based recovery from November low may be driven by restocking 70 65 60 55 PMI (points) 50 45 40 35 30 ‐ 08 ‐ 10 2 7 9 1 9 0 1 ‐09 ‐11 8 8 9 0 0 1 8 b‐ 1 v‐ 0 y ‐0 y ‐1 y‐ 1 v‐0 g‐0 v ‐0 g‐ 0 g‐1 v ‐1 g‐ 1 v‐1 y ‐0 F eb F eb Feb Feb Ma Ma Ma Ma No No No No No Au Au Fe Au Au PMI New Orders Production Employment Suppliers' Delivery Time Raw Material Inventory Source: CEIC 10. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 11. China Outlook Loosening in Monetary Policy Likely  • A reduction in the exceptionally high RRR on track – is the preferred policy tool to  fine tune the economy. We see large banks RRR down to 19.0‐19.5%. 25.0 12.0 10.0 20.0 8.0 Interest Rate % 15.0 RRR % 6.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 6 4 9 6 3 0 ‐94 ‐01 ‐ 08 ‐92 ‐99 0 97 1 p‐ 0 r‐8 r‐9 r‐ 0 r‐ 1 c‐9 c‐0 c‐1 c‐ J un J un Ju n Sep Sep Ma Ma Ma Ma De De De Se De RRR Lending Rate Time Deposit Rate SHIBOR 3 Mths Rate Source: CEIC 11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 12. China Outlook Interest rates unlikely to decline • Deposits growth has lagged loans growth since Aug. 2011. Deposit rates will have  to rise in the mid‐term unless inflation falls sharply Inflation vs. Interest Rates 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 % 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 - 07 -0 8 - 09 -1 0 2 7 8 9 10 11 -11 07 -08 09 10 11 n-1 y- 0 y- 0 y- 0 y- y- p- p- p- p- J an n Ja n n Ja n p Ma Ma Ma Ja Ma Ma Ja Ja Se Se Se Se Se CPI 3-Mths Time Deposit Rate 3-Mths SHIBOR Source: CEIC 12. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 13. China Outlook Government may not expand agressively • While we expect the PBoC to relax monetary policy somewhat, we do not expect  overall government policy to be aggressively accommodative for the following  reasons: – Wages are still rising: indications of pockets of tight labor – Government linked entities debt levels have risen – Funding limitations – Heightened risks of NPLs • We suspect tolerance of sub‐8% GDP growth as long as unemployment does not rise  distinctly • Seen in recent decision to reduce budgeted railway expansion 13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 14. Asia‐Pacific Outlook Moderating Growth Country Annual real GDP growth (% ) Country 2009 2010 2011a/e 2012f Australia 1.3 2.7 1.8‐2.3 2.2‐2.7 China 9.1 10.3 9.2 7.7‐8.2 Hong Kong ‐2.8 7.0 5.0 2.5‐3.0 India 6.8 8.9 7.3‐7.8 6.8‐7.3 Indonesia 4.5 6.1 6.5 6.0‐6.5 Japan ‐5.2 4.0 (2.3) 1.5‐2.0 Korea 0.2 6.2 3.6 2.8‐3.3 Malaysia ‐1.7 7.2 5.1 4.4‐4.9 Philippines 1.1 7.6 3.8 4.0‐4.5 Singapore ‐1.3 14.5 5.0 2.0‐2.5 Taiwan ‐1.9 10.9 4.5 2.3‐2.8 Thailand ‐2.2 7.8 0.1 3.5‐4.0 Source: S&P Capital IQ Standard & Poor’s Rating Services 14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 15. Risk of Oil Shock • We see the WTI averaging USD101 in 2012, USD114 in 2013 – barring an oil shock that  could conceivably send prices up to USD150 and lead to a recession 150 130 110 USD/bbl 90 70 50 30 De 10 Ap 0 Ap 1 Oc 0 Oc 1 Sep 08 Ma ‐0 8 Ju l 8 Ma 08 Au 09 De 09 Au 10 Au 11 De 11 No 08 J un 9 Ju n 0 J un 1 ‐12 Ma 08 Oc 9 F e 09 F eb 10 Feb 11 De 08 Ap 09 b‐ 1 g‐ 1 y‐ 0 r‐0 r‐ 1 ‐1 r‐1 g‐0 g‐1 ‐ ‐ t‐ t‐ ‐ t‐ ‐ c‐ c‐ ‐ v‐ r‐ ‐ c‐ c‐ Jan r WTI Brent Dubai 15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 16. Equities Recovery to Continue 16. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 17. Recovery has legs • With our view that the global economic outlook will improve through 2012, we  believe higher beta markets should see a better year‐end performance.  • Second Greek bailout clears one hurdle but is priced‐in already. Key positive is that  yields of other sovereigns are declining. • Higher beta / cyclical issues and markets may outperform on a recovery scenario. • However, a short‐term pull back is possible given the strong start to the year. • Risks:  – Rising oil prices – Inflation may not ease as much as expected – Excess liquidity from capital inflows into Asia raises bubble risk – Eurozone overhang risk remains 17. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 18. Hang Seng Still at Historically Attractive Valuation Levels 35,000 50 45 30,000 40 25,000 35 30 20,000 PER x HSI 25 15,000 20 10,000 15 Still at  10 5,000 historically  5 attractive  levels 0 0 6 81 8 73 07 3 7 4 1 90 F eb‐8 Feb ‐0 A ug ‐9 No v‐9 Au g‐ 1 Aug‐7 M ay ‐ N ov‐ May‐ May ‐ 'Hang Seng Index' PER Source: CEIC 18. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 19. FSSTI at Historically Attractive Valuation Levels 4,000 120.0 3,500 100.0 3,000 80.0 2,500 FSSTI PERx 2,000 60.0 1,500 40.0 1,000 20.0 500 0 0.0 1 0 8 9 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 r‐ 9 r‐9 r‐ 0 r‐0 r‐0 r‐ 0 r‐0 r‐ 0 r‐0 r‐ 0 r‐0 r‐ 0 r‐1 r‐1 Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap FSSTI PER x Std Dev ‐1 Source: S&P Capital IQ, CEIC 19. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 20. Short and Shallow Pullback?  South Korea S&P Asia 50 Hong Kong Philippines Singapore Indonesia Australia Malaysia Thailand China‐H China‐A Taiwan Japan India 1.0% 0.0% ‐1.0% ‐2.0% ‐3.0% ‐4.0% ‐5.0% ‐6.0% ‐7.0% ‐8.0% Source: Bloomberg 20. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 21. S&P Asia 50 Sector Ratios and Recommended Weightings S&P Asia 50 Recommended Sector Weightings (as of Feb.29, 2011) YTD Rtn PER 2012 EPS 2011 EPS 2012 Div Yld 2012 PBV 2012 Recommended % X YoY %  YoY %  est. % X S&P Sector Emphasis Consumer Discretionary 6.4 11.1 0.8 12.0 1.2 1.8 Marketweight Consumer Staples (0.7) 14.0 44.2 1.6 2.2 1.7 Overweight Energy 21.1 9.8 36.6 9.7 3.8 1.6 Overweight Financials ‐ Banks 20.7 8.1 39.2 7.6 4.9 1.4 Marketweight Financials ‐ Insurance 26.7 16.2 42.8 38.5 1.6 2.4 Marketweight Financials ‐ Real Estate 17.4 13.4 (11.6) (23.4) 3.1 0.9 Overweight Industrials 20.6 14.0 (10.6) 10.4 2.7 1.6 Marketweight Information Technology 14.7 12.5 (12.4) 18.7 2.1 2.3 Marketweight Materials 12.8 15.7 (22.3) (6.9) 4.4 0.5 Marketweight Telecom Services 7.3 11.0 26.9 2.4 4.4 1.9 Underweight Utilities 3.8 19.7 5.2 7.4 2.7 2.1 Underweight S&P Asia 50  11.1 11.5 21.8 9.6 3.6 1.8 Based on S&P Capital IQ market consensus estimates as of Feb. 29, 2012 Source: S&P Capital IQ 21. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 22. S&P Capital IQ Research Technical View • Current pullback may be over (if S&P 500 holds above Friday’s close of 1370) – indices  held up by some large caps • Dow Jones Transports, S&P Materials and S&P Energy rebounded from support levels • Sets up for decent push to 1400‐1440 for S&P 500   • US Dollar in midst of completing bullish double bottom and this my hurt precious  metals – Hence, gold may face continued volatile trade • Crude oil movement has not be sensitive to USD, could hit USD130 in 2Q and set the  market up for a more significant correction – However, fundamentals and smart money trades do not align with this happening yet 22. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 23. Summary ‐ Recommendations • Periodic pull backs expected  ‐ we see these to be shallow and short at this juncture • Fresh leads are needed as market rises – could come from better housing data,  improved earnings outlooks, Eurozone recovery • We regard recent pullback as an opportunity to pick up selective cyclical issues:  – Energy and Real Estate are still largely preferred but there are also select banks, consumer  and industrials names – Continue to prefer oil over other commodities • Defensive sectors (Consumer Staples, Telcos and Utilities) are likely to lag on a  recovery story although there may be positive from M&A drivers 23. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 24. Thank You 24. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 26. 2012 Global IT Spending Will Increase by +3.7% YoY Spending in 2H12 expected to pick‐up, but Eurozone is a wildcard Glo b al IT S p en d in g T racks Glo b al GD P Gro w th 5.00 8.0% 2008 Global GDP +1.5% 4.50 2009 Global GDP -2.3% 6.0% 2010 Global GDP +4.2% 4.00 S o urc e: Wo rld B ank 3.50 4.0% 3.00 2.0% 2.50 0.0% 2.00 1.50 -2.0% 1.00 -4.0% 0.50 0.00 -6.0% 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E G lo b a l IT Sp e n d in g (U SD trillio n s) G lo b a l IT Sp e n d in g (Y o Y c h a n g e ) Sourc e: Gartner (January 3, 2012 update) 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 27. Technology Sectors Hardware and Software spending above Global IT spending Software Spending Resilient Throughout the Business Cycle 15% YoY Change (%) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Telecom Services Hardware Software Global IT Spending Source: Gartner (January 3, 2012 update) To simplify, we have combined Telecom Equipment and Telecom Services into Telecom 3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 28. Technology Sectors Technology Sub‐Industries and Companies  Telecom Services Hardware Software Network Equipment Planning PCs Applications Fixed-Line Telecom Services Implementation Servers Application development Mobile Voice Support Monitors Deployment tools Deeper look at  Data and Multimedia Services Operations Printers System Infrastructure the various sub‐ Training Peripherals industries Education Mobile Phones/Smartphones Tablets Storage Source: S&P Capital IQ Telecom Services Hardware Software AT&T Cognizant Tech Apple Microsoft Americas Verizon Amdocs Intel Oracle Cisco Systems Computer Sciences Corp. Qualcomm VMware A list of public  BT Accenture Nokia SAP companies in the  EMEA Vodafone Cap Gemini STMicroelectronics NA various sub‐ Ericsson Atos SA Infineon NA industries China Mobile Tata Consultancy Samsung Electronics NA Asia Pacific China Telecom Infosys TSMC NA ZTE Wipro Hitachi NA Source: S&P Capital IQ 4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 29. Asian IT Sector Dominated by Hardware We will focus on Hardware Telecom Services Hardware Software AT&T Cognizant Tech Apple Microsoft Americas Verizon Amdocs Intel Oracle Cisco Systems Computer Sciences Corp. Qualcomm VMware BT Accenture Nokia SAP EMEA Vodafone Cap Gemini STMicroelectronics NA Ericsson Atos SA Infineon NA China Mobile Tata Consultancy Samsung Electronics NA Asia Pacific China Telecom Infosys TSMC NA ZTE Wipro Hitachi NA Source: S&P Capital IQ – Hardware market is interconnected via supply chain – Services market still developing in Asia, dominated by Indian companies – Limited Software industry outside the U.S. (excludes Internet companies) – Software companies in China rising (based on China’s MIIT), but today most of these companies  are not standalone companies (i.e., Huawei, ZTE, Haier) 5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 30. Technology Supply Chain A sample view of the hardware supply chain  6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 31. Technology Themes  Internet is the driving force for the hardware industry • Mobile devices (semiconductors, hardware, software) – Greater wireless broadband speeds, falling prices, desire for Internet/e‐mail access from any location for personal and  professional purposes • Internet advertising (services) – Users/usage of Internet increasing, spending still trailing activity on percentage basis, high relative ROI (with  sophisticated targeting, personalization, measurement, reporting) • Electronic content in autos (semiconductors, hardware, software) – Government pollution guidelines, safety and security regulations, and high oil prices • Software as a service (SaaS) (software) – Ease of deployment/customization, lower total cost of ownership, access from any Internet‐enabled device, scalability • Solar energy (semiconductors) – High oil prices, government subsidies, national/corporate/individual energy independence, conservation/sustainability,  nuclear questions • Electronic Medical Records (semiconductors, hardware, software) – Simplify transfer of medical records, lower costs of medical insurance/drugs, reduce human errors, new federal health  privacy laws • Connected Home (semiconductors, hardware, software) – Intelligent home electronic devices/appliances, enhanced electric power requirements, lower maintenance costs 7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 32. Previously, the PC market drove the Hardware market… PC Shipments (units) 600 Notebook as % of total PC shipments 500 69% 400 67% Units (millions) 300 64% 61% 59% 58% 200 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Global Desktops (units) Global Notebooks (units) Source: IDC (December 2011update) • Desktop units and ASP declining • Notebooks units rising, while ASP declining • Blended ASP declining 8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 33. Smartphone Units Rising Industry shifting to high‐volume smartphone market Mobile Phone and Smartphone Shipments 3500 Smartphones as % of 3000 total mobile phone shipments 2500 34% 32% Units (millions) 30% 2000 28% 24% 1500 18% 1000 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mobile Phone Shipments (units) Smartphone Shipments (units) Source: IDC 9. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 34. …Now, the smartphone market will drive the Hardware market Smartphone and PCs are at inflection point Smartphones vs. PCs shipments (units) 1200 1000 Inflection point 800 Units (millions) 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Smartphone Shipments (units) PC Shipments (units) Source: IDC • Dec 4Q11 Smartphone shipments totaled 158 million units • Dec 4Q11 PC shipments forecasted to be 92 million units 10. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 35. 2011 Stock Performance Technology Stocks Performed Poorly, but better than S&P Asia 50 • On November 23, 2011, we raised our recommendation to Marketweight from Underweight Asia 50 Stock Performance (2011) 10.0 5.0 0.0 Stock Performance (%) (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) (30.0) Financials - Real Telecom Discretionary Utilities Technology Services Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Financials - Financials - Information S&P Asia 50 Insurance Staples Consumer Banks Estate Source: S&P Capital IQ – As of November 22, 2011, the Asian IT sector was in the negative territory 11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 36. 2012 Outlook Slightly More Positive What’s Driving 2012 Outlook? • Higher global GDP growth expectations vs. 2011 • IT Hardware supply/demand expected to rebalance sometime 2H12 • Smartphones shifting from high‐end/premium to high‐volume/lower price points • Notebooks (Ultrabooks) could be fueled by Windows 8 (2H12) • Signs of a bottom in the LCD TV market (lower global industry capacity) • M&A: consolidation in the DRAM market (shifting to NAND) and more to come • Valuation attractive ‐ multiple compression (2011) 12. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 37. Asian IT Sector Challenges Domestic consumption is key • Exports primary driver – Businesses tied to global macro environment – Domestic consumption is low, but rising • Higher inflation – Negatively impacts profits • Excess capacity – China building capacity in various IT sectors • Larger companies benefiting – Shifts in product cycles benefiting mostly established players – Smaller companies unable to maintain R&D investments 13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 38. 2012 Technology Performance (YTD)  Starting on a solid footing Asia 50 Stock Performance (YTD, pricing as of 3/9/12) 30.0 25.0 20.0 Stock Performance (%) 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) Financials - Real Telecom Utilities Discretionary Services Materials Technology Energy Industrials Consumer Financials - Financials - Information S&P Asia 50 Insurance Staples Consumer Banks Estate Source: S&P Capital IQ 14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 39. Thank You 15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.  
  • 41. Oil prices: where are we now vs 2008? • Still some 14‐27% off July 2008 peak USD/bbl 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 WTI Dated Brent Dubai Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. 
  • 42. Demand Outlook (cont) Emerging markets to drive oil demand in 2012 mbpd 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 China Middle East Brazil Africa India Russia North Japan Europe Others America -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 Source: S&P Capital IQ, EIA 3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.