2. February 8, 2012 Global Strat egy
In the unlikely event that Iran carries out its threat to blockade the SoH, we
would advocate investors to switch to CNOOC Ltd (00883, HKD16.78, 3- 2
STARS), as price adjustments from the Chinese government may not keep
pace with the expected surge in crude oil prices.
Select Integrated Oil & Gas and E&P Performance and Key Capital IQ Consensus Ratios as at February 7, 2012
7,
Price Performance PER (x) PAT Growth
Market
Trading Cap (USD
Company Name CIQ Ticker Ccy Share
Share Price mln) FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
Integrated O&G
Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM USD 86.34 413,846 1.4% 8.8% 15.4% 10.6x 9.5x -7.8% 7.8%
PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 HKD 11.60 290,673 9.2% 15.1% 12.0% 10.5x 9.9x 16.5% 5.5%
Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA GBP 22.83 228,457 -4.3% 5.0% 18.6% 7.9x 7.8x -13.5% 6.6%
Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX USD 106.83 212,750 -1.4% -0.8% 9.4% 8.4x 7.9x -6.0% 4.8%
BP plc LSE:BP. GBP 4.87 146,658 2.0% 7.4% 18.5% 6.8x 6.5x -18.1% 5.7%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 HKD 9.28 104,916 5.3% 16.4% 30.7% 7.8x 7.3x 10.8% 7.9%
ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP USD 71.92 95,491 -1.0% 0.5% 6.2% 8.5x 7.9x -13.4% 4.7%
PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT THB 341.00 31,516 5.6% 17.2% 3.3% 8.6x 7.8x 9.8% 12.8%
Average 2.11% 8.70% 14.26% 8.6x 8.1x -2.7% 7.0%
Exploration & Production (E&P)
CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 HKD 16.78 96,625 11.3% 12.5% 8.0% 9.0x 8.8x -2.3% 2.0%
Statoil ASA OB:STL NOK 150.00 82,693 -3.6% 3.2% 26.4% 8.5x 7.8x 10.6% 6.3%
Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU CAD 34.60 54,755 9.7% 4.0% 7.0% 10.3x 9.6x 24.3% 12.7%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC USD 87.21 43,428 8.6% 5.6% 22.0% 27.5x 17.8x N/M 54.7%
Apache Corp. NYSE:APA USD 104.53 40,146 7.7% 3.0% -2.0% 8.4x 7.3x 11.2% 17.3%
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL AUD 34.41 29,950 10.9% -4.7% -0.4% 15.2x 12.1x 15.5% 24.8%
Hess Corporation NYSE:HES USD 61.18 20,486 8.4% -3.5% 2.2% 9.3x 7.8x 34.8% 15.3%
PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTTEP THB 176.50 18,961 0.6% 15.7% 5.4% 11.0x 9.3x 18.5% 18.1%
Average 6.70% 4.49% 8.55% 12.4x 9.0x 16.1% 18.9%
EV/EBITDA PBV ROE Gross Margin Div Yield
Company Name FY2012
FY2012 FY2013
FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY201 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013
2012
Integrated O&G
Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM 4.8x 4.5x 2.3x 2.1x 22.0% 20.4% 47.50% N/A 2.27% 2.37%
PetroChina Co. Ltd. SEHK:857 5.6x 5.2x 1.6x 1.4x 15.1% 15.0% 36.58% 46.90% 4.19% 4.53%
Royal Dutch Shell plc LSE:RDSA 4.1x 3.9x 1.2x 1.1x 15.4% 14.9% 17.80% N/A 4.64% 4.85%
Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX 3.5x 3.3x 1.6x 1.4x 18.8% 18.0% 46.00% N/A 3.09% 3.23%
BP plc LSE:BP. 3.9x 3.8x 1.2x 1.0x 17.8% 17.1% 19.80% N/A 4.00% 4.46%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. SEHK:386 4.7x 4.3x 1.2x 1.1x 16.3% 15.6% 16.89% 17.25% 3.42% 3.50%
ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP 4.0x 3.8x 1.3x 1.2x 15.1% 14.8% 29.40% N/A 3.86% 4.10%
PTT Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTT 6.1x 5.4x 1.5x 1.3x 18.8% 18.3% 9.01% 9.90% 3.90% 4.25%
Average 4.6x 4.3x 1.5x 1.3x
1.3x 17.4% 16.8% 27.87% 24.68% 3.67% 3.91%
Exploration & Production (E&P)
CNOOC Ltd. SEHK:883 4.6x 4.5x 2.0x 1.7x 23.7% 21.4% 57.15% 62.45% 3.79% 4.01%
Statoil ASA OB:STL 2.0x 1.9x 1.6x 1.4x 19.9% 19.1% 48.30% 46.97% 4.55% 4.71%
Suncor Energy Inc. TSX:SU 5.2x 4.8x 1.2x 1.1x 13.1% 11.9% 60.80% 62.60% 1.30% 1.41%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation NYSE:APC 6.2x 5.2x 2.2x 1.9x 8.1% 11.2% 71.30% N/A 0.42% 0.42%
Apache Corp. NYSE:APA 3.5x 3.2x 1.2x 1.0x 16.0% 15.6% 79.30% N/A 0.60% 0.60%
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. ASX:WPL 8.4x 6.9x 2.0x 1.8x 14.5% 15.8% 68.60% 67.30% 3.40% 4.07%
Hess Corporation NYSE:HES 3.6x 3.1x 1.0x 0.9x 10.5% 11.4% 36.30% 37.60% 0.68% 0.68%
PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd. SET:PTTEP 5.0x 4.2x 2.4x 2.1x 23.4% 23.8% 50.97% 57.04% 3.58% 4.22%
Average 4.8x 4.2x 1.7x 1.5x 16.1% 16.3% 59.09% 55.66% 2.29% 2.51%
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
3. February 8, 2012 Global Strat egy
S&P Capital IQ Research S&P Capital IQ U.S. includes Standard & Poor’s
Research–
Glossary Investment Advisory Services LLC; Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services
Europe includes Standard & Poor’s LLC- London; Standard & Poor’s Equity
3
Research Services Asia includes Standard & Poor’s LLC’s offices in Singapore,
S&P STARS - Since January 1, 1987, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited in Hong Kong,
universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn Bhd, and Standard & Poor’s Information Services
(American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity’s potential for future (Australia) Pty Ltd.
performance. Similarly, S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has used STARS®
Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports
methodology to rank Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. Under
CAGR- Compound Annual Growth Rate
proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), S&P equity analysts rank
CAPEX- Capital Expenditures
equities according to their individual forecast of an equity’s future total return
CY- Calendar Year
potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional
DCF- Discounted Cash Flow
index (S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)), based on a
EBIT- Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking
EBITDA- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in determining
EPS- Earnings Per Share
the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst’s own models as well as internal
EV- Enterprise Value
proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs.
FCF- Free Cash Flow
S&P Quality Rankings (also known as S&P Earnings & Dividend Rankings
Rankings)- FFO- Funds From Operations
Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in FY- Fiscal Year
establishing S&P’s earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are P/E- Price/Earnings
designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, PEG Ratio- P/E-to-Growth Ratio
however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and PV- Present Value
modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final score for R&D- Research & Development
each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores ROE- Return on Equity
of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in the array of ROI- Return on Investment
this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings: ROIC- Return on Invested Capital
ROA- Return on Assets
A+ Highest B+ Average C Lowest SG&A- Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
A High B Below Average D In Reorganization WACC- Weighted Average Cost of Capital
A- Above Average B- Lower NR Not Ranked
Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository
S&P Issuer Credit Rating - A Standard & Poor’s Issuer Credit Rating is a current
Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).
opinion of an obligor’s overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its
financial obligations. This opinion focuses on the obligor’s capacity and willingness
to meet its financial commitments as they come due. It does not apply to any specific
financial obligation, as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of Disclosures/Disclaimers
the obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the
legality and enforceability of the obligation. In addition, it does not take into account
the creditworthiness of the guarantors, insurers, or other forms of credit
enhancement on the obligation.
Required Disclosures
In contrast to the qualitative STARS recommendations covered in this report, which
S&P Capital IQ EPS Estimates – S&P Capital IQ earnings per share (EPS) estimates are determined and assigned by S&P Capital IQ equity analysts, S&P’s quantitative
reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and generally evaluations are derived from S&P’s proprietary Fair Value quantitative model. In
exclude various items that are viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. particular, the Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology,
Also, S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity whereas the STARS methodology is not. Because the Fair Value model and the
analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, which are independently STARS methodology reflect different criteria, assumptions and analytical methods,
compiled by Capital IQ, a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research. Among quantitative evaluations may at times differ from (or even contradict) an equity
the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains; impairment, analyst’s STARS recommendations. As a quantitative model, Fair Value relies on
restructuring or merger-related charges; legal and insurance settlements; in process history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity
research and development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt; as can be the case with equity analysts in assigning STARS recommendations.
the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that
have been classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items,
such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and
S&P Global STARS Distribution
depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent to In North America
which some types of data is disclosed by companies. As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research
North America recommended 39.1% of issuers with buy recommendations, 57.4%
Earnings
S&P Core Earnings - S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for
with hold recommendations and 3.5% with sell recommendations.
adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings
generated from its principal businesses. Included in the S&P Capital IQ definition are
In Europe
employee stock option grant expenses, pension costs, restructuring charges from
As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research
ongoing operations, write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets,
Europe recommended 31.5% of issuers with buy recommendations, 50.6% with
purchased research and development, M&A related expenses and unrealized
hold recommendations and 17.9% with sell recommendations.
gains/losses from hedging activities. Excluded from the definition are pension gains,
impairment of goodwill charges, gains or losses from asset sales, reversal of prior-
In Asia
year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements.
As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Asia
S&P 12 Month Target Price – The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst’s projection of the recommended 43.8% of issuers with buy recommendations, 51.0% with hold
market price a given security will command 12 months hence, based on a recommendations and 5.2% with sell recommendations.
combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market valuation metrics, including S&P
Fair Value.
Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
4. February 8, 2012 Global Strat egy
Globally The research and analytical services performed by SPIAS, McGraw-Hill Financial
As of December 31, 2011, research analysts at S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Research Europe Limited, S&PM, and SPIS are each conducted separately from any 4
globally recommended 38.3% of issuers with buy recommendations, 55.7% with hold other analytical activity of S&P Capital IQ.
recommendations and 6.0% with sell recommendations.
S&P Capital IQ or an affiliate may license certain intellectual property or provide
5-STARS (Strong Buy) Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a
Buy):
pricing or other services to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain issuers
relevant benchmark, by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising
of securities, including exchange-traded investments whose investment objective is
in price on an absolute basis.
to substantially replicate the returns of a proprietary Standard & Poor's index, such
4-STARS (Buy): Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant
as the S&P 500. In cases where S&P Capital IQ or an affiliate is paid fees that are
benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute
tied to the amount of assets that are invested in the fund or the volume of trading
basis.
activity in the fund, investment in the fund will generally result in S&P Capital IQ or
3-STARS (Hold): Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a
an affiliate earning compensation in addition to the subscription fees or other
relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares generally rising in price
compensation for services rendered by S&P Capital IQ. A reference to a particular
on an absolute basis.
investment or security by S&P Capital IQ and/or one of its affiliates is not a
2-STARS (Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a
recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such investment or security, nor is it
relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, and the share price is not
considered to be investment advice.
anticipated to show a gain.
1-STARS (Strong Sell Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a
Sell):
Indexes are unmanaged, statistical composites and their returns do not include
relevant benchmark by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares falling
payment of any sales charges or fees an investor would pay to purchase the
in price on an absolute basis.
securities they represent. Such costs would lower performance. It is not possible to
invest directly in an index.
Relevant benchmarks: In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500
Index, in Europe and in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are generally the S&P Europe
S&P Capital IQ and its affiliates provide a wide range of services to, or relating to,
350 Index and the S&P Asia 50 Index.
many organizations, including issuers of securities, investment advisers, broker-
dealers, investment banks, other financial institutions and financial intermediaries,
For All Regions:
and accordingly may receive fees or other economic benefits from those
All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research
organizations, including organizations whose securities or services they may
analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or
recommend, rate, include in model portfolios, evaluate or otherwise address.
will
issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research
For a list of companies mentioned in this report with whom S&P Capital IQ and/or
report.
one of its affiliates has had business relationships within the past year, please go
to:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/products-
S&P Global Quantitative services/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245187982940
Recommendations Distribution
Disclaimers
In Europe
As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services Europe With respect to reports issued to clients in Japan and in the case of inconsistencies
recommended 50.7% of issuers with buy recommendations, 18.5% with hold between the English and Japanese version of a report, the English version prevails.
recommendations and 30.8% with sell recommendations. With respect to reports issued to clients in German and in the case of
inconsistencies between the English and German version of a report, the English
In Asia version prevails. Neither S&P Capital IQ nor its affiliates guarantee the accuracy of
As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services Asia the translation. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of
recommended 47.6% of issuers with buy recommendations, 21.9% with hold the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance
recommendations and 30.5% with sell recommendations. is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Globally S&P Capital IQ, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors,
As of December 31, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Quantitative Services globally officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not
recommended 48.7% of issuers with buy recommendations, 20.7% with hold guarantee the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of this material, and S&P
recommendations and 30.6% with sell recommendations Parties shall have no liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein,
Additional information is available upon request. regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of the information
provided by the S&P Parties. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR
Other Disclosures IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF
MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR
This report has been prepared and issued by S&P Capital IQ and/or one of its
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are issued by Standard & Poor’s (“S&P”); in the United Kingdom by McGraw-Hill
lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the information
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contained in this document even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
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Capital IQ is a business of S&P Capital IQ.
Standard & Poor’s Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited, which is regulated by
the Hong Kong Securities Futures Commission; in Singapore by Standard & Poor’s
Ratings from Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services are statements of opinion as of
LLC, which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; in Malaysia by
the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to
Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn Bhd (“S&PM”), which is regulated by the Securities
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Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
5. February 8, 2012 Global Strat egy
suitability of any security. Standard & Poor’s does not act as a fiduciary. While For residents of the Philippines - The securities being offered or sold have not been
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Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
6. February 8, 2012 Global Strat egy
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Standar d & Poor’s Equity Research
