Assessment of the Zika outbreak and its implications for regional and Philippine security.

1. Date Instance
1947 Zika discovered in monkeys in Uganda
1952 First human infections recorded in Uganda and Tanzania
1960 12 cases recorded in Nigeria
1977-78 Cases found in Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia
2007 49 confirmed infections in Yap Islands, Micronesia
2013 Major outbreak in French Polynesia – 30,000 cases
2015 Epidemic in Brazil and Central America –1.5 million+ cases
April 2015 Unconfirmed report of male infection in Indonesia
Sept 2015 Several thousand cases reported in West African countries
January 2016 Isolated cases of Zika in U.S, UK, Germany and Denmark.
Transmission
Zika is almost solely transmitted by
mosquito bites. Only one instance of
human-to-human transmission
through sexual contact. has ever
been recorded.
Transmission works both ways;
infected humans also pass on the
virus to unaffected mosquitoes.
Symptoms
Rash, fever, sore eyes, headache and
joint pain lasting as long as one week.
It is often misdiagnosed as dengue
fever.
Zika is linked to abnormal brain
development (microcephaly) in
fetuses of infected pregnant women,
characterized by babies with below-
average head size.
Treatment
Currently, there is no existing medical
cure for Zika. Medical experts suggest
a vaccine is at least 10 years away.
Treatment focuses on relieving
feverish symptoms only.
Zika stays in the blood stream for a
maximum of seven days. Once Zika
has left the blood stream there is no
longer any risk to health and
pregnancy.
SPECIAL REPORT: ZIKA OUTBREAKAGORA
 ‘Zika’ is a virus spread by the Aedes mosquito species that thrive in urban
regions. They can also carry dengue fever and chikungunya.
 The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a global emergency, fast-
tracking aid and vaccine research.
 Has only mild symptoms but is particularly distressing due to damaging effects
on brain development in fetuses of infected pregnant women.
 Has gained significant attention due to rapid spread across Brazil and Central
America, affecting as far north as Mexico and Puerto Rico.
 Aedes mosquitoes are prevalent in tropical climates like the Philippines but only
one case has ever been reported in the country. In 2012, a 15 year-old boy was
infected with Zika in Cebu City and fully recovered.
 A strong response from global and national health authorities will likely limit the
risk of serious epidemics arising in Asia.
Executive Summary
Timeline
There are currently estimated to be up to 1.5 million cases of Zika in South and
Central America, with the majority of these cases being undiagnosed. WHO have
predicted that the epidemic will likely reach 4 million cases in the Americas before
it begins to decline.
The WHO’s declaration of a global emergency is a preemptive effort by the
organization to raise awareness in vulnerable countries. Due to the relatively mild
symptoms, the infection often goes unnoticed, is commonly misdiagnosed and is
difficult to test for. This is why proactivity is essential in stemming the spread of
the infection.
The virus is expected to branch out of the Americas in 2016, but not close to the
pace at which it affected Brazil. National health organizations across the world
are preparing for possible outbreaks which will greatly reduce the risk of
widespread infection.
It is likely that isolated cases will continue to be reported as health officials review
returning travelers who exhibited feverish symptoms upon arrival or went to
hospital after travelling to susceptible areas. There is virtually no risk of the virus
spreading in non-tropical environments though.
Still not clear how it spreads or incubates in humans. US Virgin Islander didn’t
travel in previous 3 weeks, could be a mosquito bit an infected traveler then bit
Projection
Aedes mosquitoes are most
active at dawn and dusk.
DAWN DUSK

2. GENERAL ADVISORY:
1. Pregnant women should avoid travel to Brazil and Central American countries unless completely necessary.
2. If travel is necessary, pregnant women should take all precautions to avoid being bitten by mosquitoes
(mosquito repellent, mosquito nets, long-sleeved clothing).
3. Even when travelling to unaffected areas, the same precautions should be taken if mosquitoes are prominent
in that area.
4. Ensure there is no standing water in your surrounding area where mosquitoes can lay eggs (flower vases, wet
bathroom floors and unclean toilet bowls are especially susceptible).
5. If you develop symptoms, consult your doctor immediately and avoid further exposure to mosquitoes..
6. Note that Aedes mosquitoes are most active at dawn and dusk and prefer shady, indoor areas.
Risk to the Philippines
There are currently no reports of active Zika cases in the region. Some
countries in Asia and the Pacific islands have had outbreaks before, but these
have been relatively minor instances in comparison to Brazil’s epidemic.
Despite this, the Philippines is regarded as a vulnerable country for a Zika
outbreak due to the prevalence of Aedes mosquitoes. Aedes mosquitoes prefer
urban environments and thrive in areas where there is an abundance of
standing water. The Philippines will be at a much higher risk when the rainy
season starts in June through to September, as standing rain water provides
mosquitoes with extensive breeding grounds. This is also the time that we see
a spike in dengue cases across the country, carried by the same Aedes species.
Aedes mosquitos’ prevalence in Asia
It is currently unclear whether the thermal-detecting system at Philippine international airports will be able to detect
the very minor symptoms of travelers infected with the Zika virus. However, disembarking passengers are required to
complete a health form stating if they have had feverish symptoms recently, which should help to identify possible
carriers.
Neighboring countries like Malaysia and Thailand have already stated that the Zika virus could spread uncontrollably in
their countries if undetected. Whilst this is true, the likelihood of an epidemic-level infection occurring in the Philippines
or the region is now relatively low. The reason Zika spread so quickly in Brazil was because authorities did not detect
and properly address the infection before it became an epidemic.
Given the international attention the virus is now receiving, it is unlikely that Zika would be able to reach epidemic levels
before Philippine authorities detected and took steps to eradicate it. Previous cases have proven that if it is detected
early, it can be easily isolated.
Disclaimer: You are being sent this report because you are on our mailing list for Special Reports. The information
included in this report is intended only for the recipient and is confidential. If you wish to unsubscribe from this
emailing list, please email pburton@businessprofiles.com.ph.