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Simulating Soft ware
       Teams

       Sagi Smolarski
Purpose of This Presentation
Purpose of This Presentation
Learn how to use process simulations to...
Purpose of This Presentation
Learn how to use process simulations to...
   Gain insights into soft ware development
   process
Purpose of This Presentation
Learn how to use process simulations to...
   Gain insights into soft ware development
   process
   Make better decisions about soft ware
   process
Purpose of This Presentation
Learn how to use process simulations to...
   Gain insights into soft ware development
   process
   Make better decisions about soft ware
   process
   Convince ourselves and others
Purpose of This Presentation
Learn how to use process simulations to...
   Gain insights into soft ware development
   process
   Make better decisions about soft ware
   process
   Convince ourselves and others
   Bend the laws of physics
Perspectives
       on a soft ware
        development
         operation




There are many ways to
  look at a soft ware
development operation
Perspectives
on a soft ware
 development
  operation




  This is one way
Perspectives
on a soft ware
 development
  operation
    Here we are
      talking
     about this
    perspective
Kanban Board                         In Kanban
                                               this Machine
                                                is visualized
                                                 on a board
Ready (5)   Development (4) Testing (2) Done
Questions
              What are the right WIP limits? (*)
              What is the optimal User Story Size?
              Hire a developer or a tester?
              Invest time in code inspections?
              testing automation?
              How can I measure Productivity?

(*) - WIP = Work in Process. WIP Limits - Limits we impose on the size of queues in order to improve efficiency
Visual Simulations
Visual Simulations




       Visual Mode =
      • validate model
      • gain insights
Batch Simulations
Batch Simulations
Batch Simulations
Batch Simulations
Batch Simulations




        Batch Mode =
 • Simulate many options
 • Answer a specific question
Simulation Rules
Simple queue transition mechanics
 Pull to WIP Limit
 Process to capacity
Some rules from FLOW
Example of such a rule

      Value Decay Model
      value

 1



0.5
                         The later a request is delivered,
                             The less value it brings

                                                  time
           Value
          half-life
Example of such a rule

      Value Decay Model
      value

 1



0.5
                         The later a request is delivered,
                             The less value it brings

                                                  time
           Value
          half-life
Example of such a rule

      Value Decay Model
      value

 1



0.5
                         The later a request is delivered,
                             The less value it brings
         λ

                                                  time
           Value
          half-life
Example of such a rule

      Value Decay Model
      value

 1



0.5
                         The later a request is delivered,
                             The less value it brings
         λ

                                                  time
           Value
          half-life
Example of such a rule

      Value Decay Model
      value

 1



0.5
                         The later a request is delivered,
                             The less value it brings
         λ

                                                  time
           Value
          half-life
Question #1

 What is our
   Project’s
Performance ?
What is Our Performance?
    Looking at a project in progress...
What is Our Performance?
      Weekly Profit / Loss
What is Our Performance?
       How do We Measure Performance?

 Profit/Loss is great...
 But... trailing indicator (after the fact)
 Takes into account many more than the
 efficiency of the soft ware development
 operation (Sales & Marketing etc.)
 Other “gauges” need to be used
Cumulative Flow

                                               Ready
                                            Development
                                              Testing
                                               Done




At any point in time, how many items are in each stage
                        (queue)
Cycle Time



                        On day 47, a work item
                        was delivered 43 days
                        after it was requested
 This work item was
requested on day 40 &
 delivered on day 65.
   Cycle time is 25
Lesson #1
 It’s hard to know your
 performance when you
don’t see it. Use cycle time
 and cumulative flow to
  control your process
Question #2


What Are the Right
  WIP Limits?
INCREASING WIP Limit
INCREASING WIP Limit
             Cycle Time
INCREASING WIP Limit
             Cycle Time




              Profit
INCREASING WIP Limit
             Cycle Time




              Profit




            Team members’
              Utilization
INCREASING WIP Limit
               Cycle Time




                Profit




      Sweet   Team members’
       Spot     Utilization
INCREASING WIP Limit
               Cycle Time


                              Cycle Time
                               Change
                                Lags

                Profit




      Sweet   Team members’
       Spot     Utilization
Some Insights From This Simple Case
Some Insights From This Simple Case


1. Top financial performance coincides with
   reaching top utilization of the team
Some Insights From This Simple Case


1. Top financial performance coincides with
   reaching top utilization of the team
2. Top financial performance coincides with a
   low cycle time
Some Insights From This Simple Case


1. Top financial performance coincides with
   reaching top utilization of the team
2. Top financial performance coincides with a
   low cycle time
3. The longer the queue, the longer the system
   will take to respond to a change in WIP
   limits
Single Working Queue
45


30


15

              Cycle Time
0



     0   20     40         60      80
                                WIP Limit
Single Working Queue
45


30                                       Little’s
                                        Formula
15

              Cycle Time
0



     0   20     40         60      80
                                WIP Limit
Single Working Queue
45


30            Lifetime Value                  Little’s
                                             Formula
15

                   Cycle Time
0



     0   20           40        60      80
                                     WIP Limit
Single Working Queue
         Team Members’ Utilization
45


30             Lifetime Value                  Little’s
                                              Formula
15

                    Cycle Time
0



     0    20           40        60      80
                                      WIP Limit
Single Working Queue
                   Team Members’ Utilization
45


30                       Lifetime Value                  Little’s
                                                        Formula
15

                              Cycle Time
0



     0   Optimal    20           40        60      80
          WIP
                                                WIP Limit
Decision Making
Decision Making



   In Agile:
Decision Making



   In Agile:
  • Frequent inspect & adapt
Decision Making



   In Agile:
  • Frequent inspect & adapt
  • What about long-term decision?
Decision Making



   In Agile:
  • Frequent inspect & adapt
  • What about long-term decision?
  • What about irreversible decisions?
The CFO has just
approved a new hire
   for your team
The CFO has just
 approved a new hire
    for your team


 Great! We’ll hire a
new developer so we
can crank out more
     features
The CFO has just
  approved a new hire
     for your team


 Great! We’ll hire a
new developer so we
can crank out more
     features

    No way! We
need a new tester in
  order to improve
      quality!
Question #3

Should I hire a
developer or a
   tester?
Adding a Team Member
Total Value Delivered, Simulated Process

                                                                 Value [$1,000]




                  5 Developers, 3 Testers
                                            5 Developers, 2 Testers


                                            6 Developers, 2 Testers




                                                                      Time [days]
Adding a Team Member
Total Value Delivered, Simulated Process

                                                                 Value [$1,000]




           $500K More Value
                  5 Developers, 3 Testers
                                            5 Developers, 2 Testers


                                            6 Developers, 2 Testers




                                                                      Time [days]
Lesson #3

 In some situations,
   hiring an extra
Developer will reduce
   value delivered
Question #4
Small User Stories
   are good...
How small is small
    enough?
User Story Size
Value Delivered
 $1,125,000


  $750,000


  $375,000


         $0


 ($375,000)


 ($750,000)


($1,125,000)


($1,500,000)                            Story size
               1   2   3   4   5   6   7 [days]
e



        User-Story Size
         High Resolution Simulation




                                         Value




                                 Cycle Time




    Cycle Time
                                         Story Size (total estimated effort in days)
                                                                                       High Cycle Time =
                                                                                        Noisy Process
Lesson #4

 When value delivered
decays with time, small
 batches (user stories)
    increase value
From Simple to Complex
  From the previous chart, we can see that
   a combination of simple rules, yields
      bewilderingly complex behavior




       +                 =
Aircraft & Crew
   An interesting
 analogy of how we
   can deal with
  complex systems Simulate?
                Why
               To Gain Insights
             Airplane Simulators
          • Complicated System
          • Easy to make costly mistakes
          • Small input changes can have large
             unintended consequences
Flight
Simulation
Flight
Simulation


• Experiment in a safe environment
Flight
Simulation


• Experiment in a safe environment
• Can bring the system to extremes without risk
Flight
Simulation


• Experiment in a safe environment
• Can bring the system to extremes without risk
• Can pause, fast for ward to interesting parts
Flight
Simulation


• Experiment in a safe environment
• Can bring the system to extremes without risk
• Can pause, fast for ward to interesting parts
• Track & Analyze during and after
Flight
Simulation


• Experiment in a safe environment
• Can bring the system to extremes without risk
• Can pause, fast for ward to interesting parts
• Track & Analyze during and after
• Cheaper to operate than the real thing
Soft ware
 Development
Organizations




         • Complicated System
         • Easy to make costly mistakes
         • Small input changes can have large
           unintended consequences
Playing to Learn


   Example: GetKanban.com - Looking at the
   micro-mechanics of Kanban
   Here we are looking at the macro-mechanics
   of flow in product development
   Looking at the 10,000’ level
   Kanban trainings & Other settings
Lesson #5

Simulations are a cost-
 effective way to get
   insights into the
 operation of complex
        systems
The Holy Grail of metrics...
        Often sought...
        Seldom reliably measured



Productivity
The Holy Grail of metrics...
        Often sought...
        Seldom reliably measured



Productivity
     =
  Output
   Input
Productivity Measurement
Productivity Measurement
Best measure Value Delivered and maximize it
Productivity Measurement
Best measure Value Delivered and maximize it
Holistic - Includes Product Management,
Operations, Sales, Development, Testing...
Productivity Measurement
Best measure Value Delivered and maximize it
Holistic - Includes Product Management,
Operations, Sales, Development, Testing...
Bottom-line
Productivity Measurement
Best measure Value Delivered and maximize it
Holistic - Includes Product Management,
Operations, Sales, Development, Testing...
Bottom-line
Best correlation to what business wants -
“It’s all about Benjamins, baby!”
Productivity Measurement
 Downside of Using Bottom-line Value
Productivity Measurement
  Downside of Using Bottom-line Value

Holistic - Measures dev + qa + operations +
support + PM + Sales - We usually want to
measure development operation (incl. testing)
separately
Productivity Measurement
  Downside of Using Bottom-line Value

Holistic - Measures dev + qa + operations +
support + PM + Sales - We usually want to
measure development operation (incl. testing)
separately
Value could be derived from solutions which
incorporate multiple products, which require
arbitrary attribution of value to products
Productivity Measurement
   Alternative to Bottom-line Value
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
 Delta is Waste:
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
 Delta is Waste:
   Time spent working on defects
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
 Delta is Waste:
   Time spent working on defects
   Time spent on items that are still in progress
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
 Delta is Waste:
   Time spent working on defects
   Time spent on items that are still in progress
   Idle time
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
 Delta is Waste:
   Time spent working on defects
   Time spent on items that are still in progress
   Idle time
   Manual regression testing
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
 Delta is Waste:
   Time spent working on defects
   Time spent on items that are still in progress
   Idle time
   Manual regression testing
   Process overhead
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
 Delta is Waste:
   Time spent working on defects
   Time spent on items that are still in progress
   Idle time
   Manual regression testing
   Process overhead
   Support interruptions
Productivity Measurement
      Alternative to Bottom-line Value
 Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
 Delta is Waste:
   Time spent working on defects
   Time spent on items that are still in progress
   Idle time
   Manual regression testing
   Process overhead
   Support interruptions
   Deployment
Productivity Measurement
Productivity Measurement
Example:
Productivity Measurement
Example:
5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days
Productivity Measurement
Example:
5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days
Input = 100 * ( 5+2) = 700
Productivity Measurement
Example:
5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days
Input = 100 * ( 5+2) = 700
delivered 70 features whose estimated effort
was an average of 6 days
Productivity Measurement
Example:
5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days
Input = 100 * ( 5+2) = 700
delivered 70 features whose estimated effort
was an average of 6 days
Value = 70*6 = 420
Productivity Measurement
Example:
5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days
Input = 100 * ( 5+2) = 700
delivered 70 features whose estimated effort
was an average of 6 days
Value = 70*6 = 420
Productivity = 420/700 = 70%
The observation itself
 affects the system
 under observation
The observation itself
         affects the system
         under observation




 This is true in
soft ware teams
    as well...
Measuring Productivity
Would this measurement work?
                 In-situ (real teams) In-vitro (Simulations)

Will be gamed?       Absolutely          Bits don’t cheat

Demoralizing?         Probably            Bits don’t care

                  Yes - Eminently      Yes - Insights should
 Applicable?
                  relevant metric      port well to real life
Team Composition &
   Productivity
    Productivity



    Cycle time (avg, stdev)




                        Productivity = Efficiency:
                      Can be measured just fine in a
                               simulation
Question #6


Is it cost-effective to invest in quality
practices?
Should We Invest in
Automated Testing?                                                                                 Value [$1,000]




             10% ongoing development effort
 = save 2 days duration to perform full regression testing,
               and keep this saving for ever

                                                             No investment in automation
                                                        = 1 more day to regression every quarter




10% Ongoing Dev Effort on Automated Regression Testing

                                                                                                    Time [days]
Should We Invest in
Automated Testing?                                                                                 Value [$1,000]




  $300K More Value Generated
             10% ongoing development effort
 = save 2 days duration to perform full regression testing,
               and keep this saving for ever

                                                             No investment in automation
                                                        = 1 more day to regression every quarter




10% Ongoing Dev Effort on Automated Regression Testing

                                                                                                    Time [days]
Best Practices In Creating Simulations
Best Practices In Creating Simulations

    Use real historical data as a baseline
Best Practices In Creating Simulations

    Use real historical data as a baseline
    When real data not available, use industry
    data (e.g. Capers Jones)
Best Practices In Creating Simulations

    Use real historical data as a baseline
    When real data not available, use industry
    data (e.g. Capers Jones)
    Validate model using visual simulation
Best Practices In Creating Simulations

    Use real historical data as a baseline
    When real data not available, use industry
    data (e.g. Capers Jones)
    Validate model using visual simulation
    Keep it simple (Low fidelity is often enough)
Best Practices In Creating Simulations

    Use real historical data as a baseline
    When real data not available, use industry
    data (e.g. Capers Jones)
    Validate model using visual simulation
    Keep it simple (Low fidelity is often enough)
    Translate results into $$$
Summary
Summary
Simulations are a great addition to our toolset
Summary
Simulations are a great addition to our toolset
   To gain insight into complex processes
Summary
Simulations are a great addition to our toolset
   To gain insight into complex processes
   To make better decisions
Summary
Simulations are a great addition to our toolset
   To gain insight into complex processes
   To make better decisions
   To convince (yourself / others)
Summary
Simulations are a great addition to our toolset
   To gain insight into complex processes
   To make better decisions
   To convince (yourself / others)
   To bend the laws of physics
Summary
Simulations are a great addition to our toolset
   To gain insight into complex processes
   To make better decisions
   To convince (yourself / others)
   To bend the laws of physics
   To forecast
Key Take Aways
Understand that there is a machine within
your team’s process
Realize it’s a complex machine, who has a
significant impact on the outcome
Simulations are but one of many tools that
help us there
Should not be the main consideration in making
decisions - People considerations are more
important, but can provide a great deal of help
More Information
Check it out at:     http://flower.agilesparks.com

Talk to us:
  sagi@agilesparks.com

  yuval@agilesparks.com

  @FLOWerSimulator
More Information
Check it out at:     http://flower.agilesparks.com

Talk to us:
  sagi@agilesparks.com

  yuval@agilesparks.com

  @FLOWerSimulator

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Simulating Software Teams

  • 1. Simulating Soft ware Teams Sagi Smolarski
  • 2. Purpose of This Presentation
  • 3. Purpose of This Presentation Learn how to use process simulations to...
  • 4. Purpose of This Presentation Learn how to use process simulations to... Gain insights into soft ware development process
  • 5. Purpose of This Presentation Learn how to use process simulations to... Gain insights into soft ware development process Make better decisions about soft ware process
  • 6. Purpose of This Presentation Learn how to use process simulations to... Gain insights into soft ware development process Make better decisions about soft ware process Convince ourselves and others
  • 7. Purpose of This Presentation Learn how to use process simulations to... Gain insights into soft ware development process Make better decisions about soft ware process Convince ourselves and others Bend the laws of physics
  • 8. Perspectives on a soft ware development operation There are many ways to look at a soft ware development operation
  • 9. Perspectives on a soft ware development operation This is one way
  • 10. Perspectives on a soft ware development operation Here we are talking about this perspective
  • 11. Kanban Board In Kanban this Machine is visualized on a board Ready (5) Development (4) Testing (2) Done
  • 12. Questions What are the right WIP limits? (*) What is the optimal User Story Size? Hire a developer or a tester? Invest time in code inspections? testing automation? How can I measure Productivity? (*) - WIP = Work in Process. WIP Limits - Limits we impose on the size of queues in order to improve efficiency
  • 14. Visual Simulations Visual Mode = • validate model • gain insights
  • 19. Batch Simulations Batch Mode = • Simulate many options • Answer a specific question
  • 20. Simulation Rules Simple queue transition mechanics Pull to WIP Limit Process to capacity Some rules from FLOW
  • 21. Example of such a rule Value Decay Model value 1 0.5 The later a request is delivered, The less value it brings time Value half-life
  • 22. Example of such a rule Value Decay Model value 1 0.5 The later a request is delivered, The less value it brings time Value half-life
  • 23. Example of such a rule Value Decay Model value 1 0.5 The later a request is delivered, The less value it brings λ time Value half-life
  • 24. Example of such a rule Value Decay Model value 1 0.5 The later a request is delivered, The less value it brings λ time Value half-life
  • 25. Example of such a rule Value Decay Model value 1 0.5 The later a request is delivered, The less value it brings λ time Value half-life
  • 26. Question #1 What is our Project’s Performance ?
  • 27. What is Our Performance? Looking at a project in progress...
  • 28. What is Our Performance? Weekly Profit / Loss
  • 29. What is Our Performance? How do We Measure Performance? Profit/Loss is great... But... trailing indicator (after the fact) Takes into account many more than the efficiency of the soft ware development operation (Sales & Marketing etc.) Other “gauges” need to be used
  • 30. Cumulative Flow Ready Development Testing Done At any point in time, how many items are in each stage (queue)
  • 31. Cycle Time On day 47, a work item was delivered 43 days after it was requested This work item was requested on day 40 & delivered on day 65. Cycle time is 25
  • 32. Lesson #1 It’s hard to know your performance when you don’t see it. Use cycle time and cumulative flow to control your process
  • 33. Question #2 What Are the Right WIP Limits?
  • 35. INCREASING WIP Limit Cycle Time
  • 36. INCREASING WIP Limit Cycle Time Profit
  • 37. INCREASING WIP Limit Cycle Time Profit Team members’ Utilization
  • 38. INCREASING WIP Limit Cycle Time Profit Sweet Team members’ Spot Utilization
  • 39. INCREASING WIP Limit Cycle Time Cycle Time Change Lags Profit Sweet Team members’ Spot Utilization
  • 40. Some Insights From This Simple Case
  • 41. Some Insights From This Simple Case 1. Top financial performance coincides with reaching top utilization of the team
  • 42. Some Insights From This Simple Case 1. Top financial performance coincides with reaching top utilization of the team 2. Top financial performance coincides with a low cycle time
  • 43. Some Insights From This Simple Case 1. Top financial performance coincides with reaching top utilization of the team 2. Top financial performance coincides with a low cycle time 3. The longer the queue, the longer the system will take to respond to a change in WIP limits
  • 44. Single Working Queue 45 30 15 Cycle Time 0 0 20 40 60 80 WIP Limit
  • 45. Single Working Queue 45 30 Little’s Formula 15 Cycle Time 0 0 20 40 60 80 WIP Limit
  • 46. Single Working Queue 45 30 Lifetime Value Little’s Formula 15 Cycle Time 0 0 20 40 60 80 WIP Limit
  • 47. Single Working Queue Team Members’ Utilization 45 30 Lifetime Value Little’s Formula 15 Cycle Time 0 0 20 40 60 80 WIP Limit
  • 48. Single Working Queue Team Members’ Utilization 45 30 Lifetime Value Little’s Formula 15 Cycle Time 0 0 Optimal 20 40 60 80 WIP WIP Limit
  • 50. Decision Making In Agile:
  • 51. Decision Making In Agile: • Frequent inspect & adapt
  • 52. Decision Making In Agile: • Frequent inspect & adapt • What about long-term decision?
  • 53. Decision Making In Agile: • Frequent inspect & adapt • What about long-term decision? • What about irreversible decisions?
  • 54. The CFO has just approved a new hire for your team
  • 55. The CFO has just approved a new hire for your team Great! We’ll hire a new developer so we can crank out more features
  • 56. The CFO has just approved a new hire for your team Great! We’ll hire a new developer so we can crank out more features No way! We need a new tester in order to improve quality!
  • 57. Question #3 Should I hire a developer or a tester?
  • 58. Adding a Team Member Total Value Delivered, Simulated Process Value [$1,000] 5 Developers, 3 Testers 5 Developers, 2 Testers 6 Developers, 2 Testers Time [days]
  • 59. Adding a Team Member Total Value Delivered, Simulated Process Value [$1,000] $500K More Value 5 Developers, 3 Testers 5 Developers, 2 Testers 6 Developers, 2 Testers Time [days]
  • 60. Lesson #3 In some situations, hiring an extra Developer will reduce value delivered
  • 61. Question #4 Small User Stories are good... How small is small enough?
  • 62. User Story Size Value Delivered $1,125,000 $750,000 $375,000 $0 ($375,000) ($750,000) ($1,125,000) ($1,500,000) Story size 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 [days]
  • 63. e User-Story Size High Resolution Simulation Value Cycle Time Cycle Time Story Size (total estimated effort in days) High Cycle Time = Noisy Process
  • 64. Lesson #4 When value delivered decays with time, small batches (user stories) increase value
  • 65. From Simple to Complex From the previous chart, we can see that a combination of simple rules, yields bewilderingly complex behavior + =
  • 66. Aircraft & Crew An interesting analogy of how we can deal with complex systems Simulate? Why To Gain Insights Airplane Simulators • Complicated System • Easy to make costly mistakes • Small input changes can have large unintended consequences
  • 69. Flight Simulation • Experiment in a safe environment • Can bring the system to extremes without risk
  • 70. Flight Simulation • Experiment in a safe environment • Can bring the system to extremes without risk • Can pause, fast for ward to interesting parts
  • 71. Flight Simulation • Experiment in a safe environment • Can bring the system to extremes without risk • Can pause, fast for ward to interesting parts • Track & Analyze during and after
  • 72. Flight Simulation • Experiment in a safe environment • Can bring the system to extremes without risk • Can pause, fast for ward to interesting parts • Track & Analyze during and after • Cheaper to operate than the real thing
  • 73. Soft ware Development Organizations • Complicated System • Easy to make costly mistakes • Small input changes can have large unintended consequences
  • 74. Playing to Learn Example: GetKanban.com - Looking at the micro-mechanics of Kanban Here we are looking at the macro-mechanics of flow in product development Looking at the 10,000’ level Kanban trainings & Other settings
  • 75. Lesson #5 Simulations are a cost- effective way to get insights into the operation of complex systems
  • 76. The Holy Grail of metrics... Often sought... Seldom reliably measured Productivity
  • 77. The Holy Grail of metrics... Often sought... Seldom reliably measured Productivity = Output Input
  • 79. Productivity Measurement Best measure Value Delivered and maximize it
  • 80. Productivity Measurement Best measure Value Delivered and maximize it Holistic - Includes Product Management, Operations, Sales, Development, Testing...
  • 81. Productivity Measurement Best measure Value Delivered and maximize it Holistic - Includes Product Management, Operations, Sales, Development, Testing... Bottom-line
  • 82. Productivity Measurement Best measure Value Delivered and maximize it Holistic - Includes Product Management, Operations, Sales, Development, Testing... Bottom-line Best correlation to what business wants - “It’s all about Benjamins, baby!”
  • 83. Productivity Measurement Downside of Using Bottom-line Value
  • 84. Productivity Measurement Downside of Using Bottom-line Value Holistic - Measures dev + qa + operations + support + PM + Sales - We usually want to measure development operation (incl. testing) separately
  • 85. Productivity Measurement Downside of Using Bottom-line Value Holistic - Measures dev + qa + operations + support + PM + Sales - We usually want to measure development operation (incl. testing) separately Value could be derived from solutions which incorporate multiple products, which require arbitrary attribution of value to products
  • 86. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value
  • 87. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours
  • 88. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours Delta is Waste:
  • 89. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours Delta is Waste: Time spent working on defects
  • 90. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours Delta is Waste: Time spent working on defects Time spent on items that are still in progress
  • 91. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours Delta is Waste: Time spent working on defects Time spent on items that are still in progress Idle time
  • 92. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours Delta is Waste: Time spent working on defects Time spent on items that are still in progress Idle time Manual regression testing
  • 93. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours Delta is Waste: Time spent working on defects Time spent on items that are still in progress Idle time Manual regression testing Process overhead
  • 94. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours Delta is Waste: Time spent working on defects Time spent on items that are still in progress Idle time Manual regression testing Process overhead Support interruptions
  • 95. Productivity Measurement Alternative to Bottom-line Value Can measure value-add hours vs. paid hours Delta is Waste: Time spent working on defects Time spent on items that are still in progress Idle time Manual regression testing Process overhead Support interruptions Deployment
  • 98. Productivity Measurement Example: 5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days
  • 99. Productivity Measurement Example: 5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days Input = 100 * ( 5+2) = 700
  • 100. Productivity Measurement Example: 5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days Input = 100 * ( 5+2) = 700 delivered 70 features whose estimated effort was an average of 6 days
  • 101. Productivity Measurement Example: 5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days Input = 100 * ( 5+2) = 700 delivered 70 features whose estimated effort was an average of 6 days Value = 70*6 = 420
  • 102. Productivity Measurement Example: 5 developers, 2 testers, working for 100 days Input = 100 * ( 5+2) = 700 delivered 70 features whose estimated effort was an average of 6 days Value = 70*6 = 420 Productivity = 420/700 = 70%
  • 103. The observation itself affects the system under observation
  • 104. The observation itself affects the system under observation This is true in soft ware teams as well...
  • 105. Measuring Productivity Would this measurement work? In-situ (real teams) In-vitro (Simulations) Will be gamed? Absolutely Bits don’t cheat Demoralizing? Probably Bits don’t care Yes - Eminently Yes - Insights should Applicable? relevant metric port well to real life
  • 106. Team Composition & Productivity Productivity Cycle time (avg, stdev) Productivity = Efficiency: Can be measured just fine in a simulation
  • 107. Question #6 Is it cost-effective to invest in quality practices?
  • 108. Should We Invest in Automated Testing? Value [$1,000] 10% ongoing development effort = save 2 days duration to perform full regression testing, and keep this saving for ever No investment in automation = 1 more day to regression every quarter 10% Ongoing Dev Effort on Automated Regression Testing Time [days]
  • 109. Should We Invest in Automated Testing? Value [$1,000] $300K More Value Generated 10% ongoing development effort = save 2 days duration to perform full regression testing, and keep this saving for ever No investment in automation = 1 more day to regression every quarter 10% Ongoing Dev Effort on Automated Regression Testing Time [days]
  • 110. Best Practices In Creating Simulations
  • 111. Best Practices In Creating Simulations Use real historical data as a baseline
  • 112. Best Practices In Creating Simulations Use real historical data as a baseline When real data not available, use industry data (e.g. Capers Jones)
  • 113. Best Practices In Creating Simulations Use real historical data as a baseline When real data not available, use industry data (e.g. Capers Jones) Validate model using visual simulation
  • 114. Best Practices In Creating Simulations Use real historical data as a baseline When real data not available, use industry data (e.g. Capers Jones) Validate model using visual simulation Keep it simple (Low fidelity is often enough)
  • 115. Best Practices In Creating Simulations Use real historical data as a baseline When real data not available, use industry data (e.g. Capers Jones) Validate model using visual simulation Keep it simple (Low fidelity is often enough) Translate results into $$$
  • 117. Summary Simulations are a great addition to our toolset
  • 118. Summary Simulations are a great addition to our toolset To gain insight into complex processes
  • 119. Summary Simulations are a great addition to our toolset To gain insight into complex processes To make better decisions
  • 120. Summary Simulations are a great addition to our toolset To gain insight into complex processes To make better decisions To convince (yourself / others)
  • 121. Summary Simulations are a great addition to our toolset To gain insight into complex processes To make better decisions To convince (yourself / others) To bend the laws of physics
  • 122. Summary Simulations are a great addition to our toolset To gain insight into complex processes To make better decisions To convince (yourself / others) To bend the laws of physics To forecast
  • 123. Key Take Aways Understand that there is a machine within your team’s process Realize it’s a complex machine, who has a significant impact on the outcome Simulations are but one of many tools that help us there Should not be the main consideration in making decisions - People considerations are more important, but can provide a great deal of help
  • 124. More Information Check it out at: http://flower.agilesparks.com Talk to us: sagi@agilesparks.com yuval@agilesparks.com @FLOWerSimulator
  • 125. More Information Check it out at: http://flower.agilesparks.com Talk to us: sagi@agilesparks.com yuval@agilesparks.com @FLOWerSimulator

Editor's Notes

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  9. One disclaimer to get you in the right mind set...\nOne of the many ways to look at software development operations is to use a perspectives model such as this one\nThis talk is about the “machine” layer. Not because it’s more important... it’s not. \nBecause it is important as it provides insights to the people about the basic mechanics & physics laws of their process,\nThen the people can make better decisions.\n
  10. One disclaimer to get you in the right mind set...\nOne of the many ways to look at teams is to use a perspectives model such as this one\nThis talk is about the “machine” layer. Not because it’s more important... it’s not. \nBecause it is important as it provides insights to the people about the basic mechanics & physics laws of their process,\nThen the people can make better decisions.\n
  11. One disclaimer to get you in the right mind set...\nOne of the many ways to look at teams is to use a perspectives model such as this one\nThe machine layer is the one who contains lists of things to do for different stages in the process, the policies for how things move from one list to another, for how work items (tasks and bugs etc.) look like. etc.\nThis talk is about the “machine” layer. Not because it’s more important... it’s not. \nBecause it is important as it provides insights to the people about the basic mechanics & physics laws of their process,\nThen the people can make better decisions.\n
  12. one of the nice things about Kanban is exposing this machine so we see what’s going on...\nThere are many decisions to make about how the machine operates:\nWIP limits, who works on what, when? policies for how things are transitioning from list to list, classes of service, prioritization. Size of tasks\n
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  19. Flow is a great book which combines Statistics, Finance & Ops research to get important insights about how to run this machine. \n
  20. like in radioactivity\nrelated to the cost of delay\naverage for all items\n
  21. like in radioactivity\nrelated to the cost of delay\naverage for all items\n
  22. like in radioactivity\nrelated to the cost of delay\naverage for all items\n
  23. like in radioactivity\nrelated to the cost of delay\naverage for all items\n
  24. like in radioactivity\nrelated to the cost of delay\naverage for all items\n
  25. like in radioactivity\nrelated to the cost of delay\naverage for all items\n
  26. like in radioactivity\nrelated to the cost of delay\naverage for all items\n
  27. like in radioactivity\nrelated to the cost of delay\naverage for all items\n
  28. \n
  29. Are we doing well?\n
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  37. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  38. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  39. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  40. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  41. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  42. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  43. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  44. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  45. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  46. The longer the queue, the slower the system is to respond to change, \nin this case, changes to cycle time following changes in WIP limits.\n100% utilization marks the start of the sweet spot.\n\n\n
  47. True for this simple setup. If there’s a team that deals with interruptions it’s a different matter.\n
  48. True for this simple setup. If there’s a team that deals with interruptions it’s a different matter.\n
  49. True for this simple setup. If there’s a team that deals with interruptions it’s a different matter.\n
  50. This is true only for a queue with WIP limits, feeding off of a backlog with a finite size\n(has wip limits itself). This is not an M/M/1/inf. queue. This is an w/x/y/z queue.\nImportant to notice that here we are getting optimum performance at peak utilization.\nThis is at odds with the statement that “full utilization creates waste”.\n
  51. This is true only for a queue with WIP limits, feeding off of a backlog with a finite size\n(has wip limits itself). This is not an M/M/1/inf. queue. This is an w/x/y/z queue.\nImportant to notice that here we are getting optimum performance at peak utilization.\nThis is at odds with the statement that “full utilization creates waste”.\n
  52. This is true only for a queue with WIP limits, feeding off of a backlog with a finite size\n(has wip limits itself). This is not an M/M/1/inf. queue. This is an w/x/y/z queue.\nImportant to notice that here we are getting optimum performance at peak utilization.\nThis is at odds with the statement that “full utilization creates waste”.\n
  53. This is true only for a queue with WIP limits, feeding off of a backlog with a finite size\n(has wip limits itself). This is not an M/M/1/inf. queue. This is an w/x/y/z queue.\nImportant to notice that here we are getting optimum performance at peak utilization.\nThis is at odds with the statement that “full utilization creates waste”.\n
  54. This is true only for a queue with WIP limits, feeding off of a backlog with a finite size\n(has wip limits itself). This is not an M/M/1/inf. queue. This is an w/x/y/z queue.\nImportant to notice that here we are getting optimum performance at peak utilization.\nThis is at odds with the statement that “full utilization creates waste”.\n
  55. This is true only for a queue with WIP limits, feeding off of a backlog with a finite size\n(has wip limits itself). This is not an M/M/1/inf. queue. This is an w/x/y/z queue.\nImportant to notice that here we are getting optimum performance at peak utilization.\nThis is at odds with the statement that “full utilization creates waste”.\n
  56. This is true only for a queue with WIP limits, feeding off of a backlog with a finite size\n(has wip limits itself). This is not an M/M/1/inf. queue. This is an w/x/y/z queue.\nImportant to notice that here we are getting optimum performance at peak utilization.\nThis is at odds with the statement that “full utilization creates waste”.\n
  57. This is true only for a queue with WIP limits, feeding off of a backlog with a finite size\n(has wip limits itself). This is not an M/M/1/inf. queue. This is an w/x/y/z queue.\nImportant to notice that here we are getting optimum performance at peak utilization.\nThis is at odds with the statement that “full utilization creates waste”.\n
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  60. overhead: queues need to be managed, status needs to be reported...\n\n
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  62. Each point represents an experiment with 500 working days. How much value was generated.\nIf you don’t operate on this plateau you are wasting money\nWhat determines the width? Cost of delay.\nWhy isn’t this sensitive to changes in WIP limits in the testing queue?\n
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  72. If we keep everything constant, but do a what-if on both scenarios we can get some data which can support the argument one way or the other\n
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  76. Keep in mind that this applies to a particular scenario, where there are two working queues,\nthe first queue has 5 workers with an an average daily capacity of 5 work units, a WIP limit of 10 tasks, the second queue has 2 workers with the same average capacity, a WIP limit of 5. Tasks have no variability in size.\nNote that interestingly enough, this does not take into account many of the effects of large stories,\nsuch as reduced estimate accuracy, reduced quality. The main driver here is that it takes more\ntime to get value out, so the value decays more.\n
  77. Keep in mind that this applies to a particular scenario, where there are two working queues,\nthe first queue has 5 workers with an an average daily capacity of 5 work units, a WIP limit of 10 tasks, the second queue has 2 workers with the same average capacity, a WIP limit of 5. Tasks have no variability in size.\nNote that interestingly enough, this does not take into account many of the effects of large stories,\nsuch as reduced estimate accuracy, reduced quality. The main driver here is that it takes more\ntime to get value out, so the value decays more.\n
  78. Similar analysis, but with a fine-grained story size, with stdev included\nFor example, short stories. This is something I believe in, and always felt it was hard to convince.\nIn this chart every point represents 2 years’ worth of a team process.\nSame process, with only one thing changing - the average size of the story.\nYou can see in red the cycle time and its standard deviation.\nIn blue you can see total value delivered over the life time of the project.\nYou can see how significant the impact is.\nOne thing that surprised me is the complexity of the result. Out of a small set of simple rules, you get such a complex outcome.\nYou can see that there’s a sweet spot around one day. This is where you want to be. Again, this is true only for the particular process I described. you can see that with a smaller stories average size, you hurt the \n
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  80. From that chart, we can see how complexity emerges\nfrom the combination of a set of fairly simple rules.\nComplex systems exhibit unpredictable response to changes:\n - Small change can have a big impact\n - Change will sometimes be unpredicted\nDoes not mean that there is an inconsistent relationship between cause and effect.\nThis is where simulation comes to the rescue - we can gain more insights into the relationship\n
  81. One interesting analogy to look at is the one of an aircraft and its crew\n\nand in that world getting a handle of complexity is crucial as the price of making mistakes can be quite high,\nAnd an airplane and its crew form a complex system, where small changes can have big impacts, and not necessarily in the anticipated direction.\nSo simulations are used to provide crews with a safe environment where you can experiment and take the system to its extreme in a cheaper, safer manner, you can pause, replay, fast-forward\n
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  87. Software development operations are complex systems as well which exhibit similar attributes\nDon’t look as intimidating as a crew in an airliner’s cockpit, with the shiny uniforms and golden badges, but it doesn’t mean that they are different.\nBut somehow simulations are rarely used if at all as part of training of team members and management, and this means that people need to learn from\ncostly mistakes, or from books, and my experience is that the majority of practitioners don’t read books about process, and even when they\ndo, what they learn is sometimes so different from common sense and the existing dogma, that they are likely to face resistance in implementing them.\nSimulations can be a big help there, and I think there’s a lot more than can be done in using those as a tool in that space.\n
  88. a shout out to GetKanban which has been an inspiration in creating the simulations\n
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  91. Productivity is the holy grail of the metrics & Impossible to measure in real teams.\nPossible to measure in a simulation in a fairly straightforward way: \nThe user story estimates are correlated to value (assuming a smart PM).\nSo let’s measure the amount of value delivered in any time, and measure the time invested by the team. The ratio between them is productivity, or efficiency.\n
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  113. You probably know that in physical systems, you cannot observe a quantity without affecting another (e.g. the heisenberg uncertainty principle).\nIn software systems we see the same behavior, and it is far from being negligible.\nIf you start measuring something in a real team, it will change the behavior of the team.\nIn a simulation, you are god a creator, and if you program this out, it won’t happen.\n
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  115. Applied to the problem discussed before (dev/qa mix), we can measure productivity (expressed in % here) and keep a straight face.\nThere is no cheating here since we haven’t programmed it it.\nThe insights should port pretty well into reality.\n
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  117. Sometimes we are thinking about investing in quality\nExamples are testing automation, which will slow us down in the short term,\nbut will help us in the long term. It’s always very hard to make the call, but if we simulate to forecast, we can see what is going to be the break-even point...\n5 developers, 2 testers\n
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