OTT video is growing rapidly and threatening traditional pay TV business models. Usage of services like Netflix is exploding, with 2/3rds of Netflix subscribers shifting primarily to streaming. This is driving changes in user behavior like longer viewing sessions. While some research finds little impact on TV viewing, pay TV providers could still be disrupted by online services that provide content directly without the provider. Pay TV providers face challenges managing or monetizing growing OTT traffic on their networks. Some providers are starting to offer their own multi-platform video services to try to become video distributors themselves.

1. A Tangled Web…
OTT Video Threatens ISP Business Models
Aditya Kishore
Principal Analyst
ak@diametricanalysis.com
www.diametricanalysis.com
Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.

2. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Definition: OTT Video is video content being delivered via the service
provider’s network but without the provider’s permission, control or any
revenue gain
•In December 2010, TV sites in Germany reached 16.3 million viewers, up 14 %. France followed with 15.0 million
viewers, up 22% and the UK with 11.0 million viewers up 19%.
•Significant trend in 2010 for the European online video market : An increase in the average length of videos
viewed, indicating a shifting preference to consuming longer videos.
•A Heavy Reading study of US pay TV subscribers found that 40% of respondents watched more online video in
2009 vs. 2008, and 26% picked TV shows as their most viewed genre of Internet video
Source: comScore, Heavy Reading US Pay TV Survey, 2009
OTT video usage is exploding

3. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
37%
41%
48%
55%
61%
66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0
5
10
15
2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Number of subscribers streaming in millions
Percentage of subscribers streaming
•Netflix finds that 2/3rd of its
subscribers have already shifted
to a streaming model
•1st day of availability in
Canada, Netflix traffic exploded
past YouTube
•Driven by higher video quality
and longer video duration
•Users moving from 10-20 second
UGC video at poor quality to
30, 60 & 90 minute videos at high
quality
•BBC’s iPlayer “HD” quality is
streamed at 1.5 Mbps – higher
than some Internet connections
not so long ago
It’s driving shifts from DVDs, but could it
affect TV viewing as well?
Source: Netflix Earnings, Sandvine
Netflix Traffic In Canada on Launch
Netflix Users

4. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Producer/Distributors
Warner Bros. Television
King World
Columbia-Tristar Television
Movie Studios
Warner
Bros., Universal, Disney, Twen
tieth Century Fox
Basic Cable Networks
TNT, USA, A&E
Premium Network
HBO, Starz! Encore, Showtime
Broadcast Networks
ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX
Internet Video
Consumer
Pay TV Provider
Cable, DBS, Telco
By providing content owners a direct channel to the
consumer, Internet video weakens the negotiating position
of the service provider
Pay TV providers must also fear being
disintermediated by OTT video

5. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
InMinutes
Source: Television Bureau of Advertising ; using data from The Nielsen Company, NTI Annual
Averages, 1994-present estimates based on start of broadcast season September to September. Beginning in
2007, estimates include Live+7 HUT viewing. Prior to 9/87: Audimeter Sample; 9/87 to present: People Meter
Sample.
•Much of the research is tied to
consumer surveys – a notoriously
poor indicator of actual viewing
behaviour
•2010 CTAM study found 84% of
those viewing Internet video on TVs
watched the same or more
scheduled TV as before
•92% subscribed to pay TV with only
3% planning to give it up.
•Heavy Reading’s US pay TV survey
found that less than 3% of US pay TV
subscribers had dropped their
subscription
•35% percent felt Internet video was
“competitive in theory, but TV was
much better for video,” while almost
22% felt OTT just wasn’t competitive
with pay TV
•However 17% felt they may cancel
their premium packages
But TV viewing does not appear to be
declining, though opinion (and research findings) are
mixed

6. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
8.97%
38.5%
56.4%
21.8%
48.7%
52.6%
0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
Other
Reach Younger Demos
Extend Brand
In Case We Need In Future
Experiment With New Revenue Models
Incremental Revenue
•32% were distributing a “substantial” number of titles today, with another 20% distributing some
•Another 23% were about to launch online video services
•Need to eliminate the middleman has been a cherished dream for some content owners but it’s not as easy – as they
are finding out
•Hulu went from ad-sponsored to subscription, Eric Schmidt admitted monetizing YouTube was a challenge, and
anyone remember Movielink?
•Even flavour-of-the-month Netflix is dependent on movies deal with Starz, which is set to change
•Best evidence is the change in focus from YouTube to Hulu to Netflix over the past 3-4 years in OTT video discussions
Source: Heavy Reading study of Video Content Rights Holders, 2008
Content owners are keen to exploit OTT, but there
are challenges even for them

7. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
And eliminating the middleman has its own
consequences…
Assume per subscriber per month carriage fee charged
for network
$0.95
Assume reach (as % of US Households) 80%
Reach (in millions of US HH) 90 million
Monthly revenue from carriage fees (in millions) $85.5
Annual revenue from carriage fees $1.03 billion
Quite apart from viewer driven advertising revenues, there are
billions of dollars tied to carriage revenues which will force
consideration of traditional distribution channels

8. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved. Source: Cisco VNI, 2009
But service providers are still staring down the
barrel of a gun

9. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved. Source: Cisco VNI, 2009
And OTT video is the problem

10. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
•P2P traffic could be shaped, at least outside the US but video poses greater challenges
•Streaming video – as evidenced by Netflix – is preferred option
•Can’t be shaped or delayed without affecting end user QoE
•Frustrating experience affects customer satisfaction, may drive churn
•Competitive BB market means SPs have their hands tied
•Marketing on peak speeds is shooting themselves in the foot: Now users, online distributors (BBC)
demand peak speed
P2P is declining as a percentage of total traffic, but
that’s only because video is growing faster
Source: Arbor Networks

11. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
110 000
120 000
Average advertised broadband download speed, kbit/s*
Source: OECD, October 2009
Note (*): Advertised speeds are typically the theoretical maximum for the employed technologies. Users commonly have lower actual speeds. Also, often only
parts of the country have been upgraded to the fastest speeds.
Note (***): New Zealand's download speeds are not typically advertised. Figures were imputed using technological maximum speeds for ADSL 2+.
Operators have been increasing connectivity speeds but not
fast enough to handle the volume of growing video

12. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Service providers must look to either monetize OTT
video or find ways to manage it
The Two Approaches Are Not
Necessarily Opposed
Cut Costs Grow
Revenue
OR
• Costs of supporting delivery
infrastructure is unsustainable
• Competitive market restricts
sustained price increases
Operators Must Choose To
MANAGE Or MONETIZE This
Traffic
Source: Juniper

13. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Delivery Aggregation Creation
Online
Aggregators
Content/
Producers/UGC
Pure-play
CDNs
ISP
Devices Distribution Selection/Portal
Content
Distributors
Devices
Content/
Producers/UGC
Carrier displaces online distributor
NSP PortalsCDNISP
Devices
• 76% of service providers agreed that multiplatform video distribution would be critical for their
business within five years
• Of these 38% strongly agreed
• 25% rated it their highest priority when asked what would make them prioritize multiplatform
video deployment higher
Option A: Service providers move up the
value chain and become video distributors
Source: Adapted from Juniper Mkt. Viewpoint

14. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
9.1%
34.0%
56.9%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Very Interested Somewhat Interested Not Interested
How interested would you be in a new service that allowed you to watch a large percentage of TV shows and channels, as well as
shows recorded on your DVR, via the Internet or mobile device from anywhere in the world? Your pay TV provider would charge you
$10 per month in addition to your existing pay TV charges for this capability.
2010 n=503
Subscribers are interested, even for a substantial
incremental fee
Source: 2010 Heavy Reading US Pay TV Survey

15. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
No.
Service
Provider
TV Mobile PC
1. AT&T
Linear and on-demand channels, premium
packages etc.
Selected sports, events, specials etc.
offered on 3-screens
Media FLO offered on ATT Mobile
Interactive features such as sports
statistics, news and voting/polling apps on all
platforms linked to video content
Can program DVR remotely
Yahoo partnership brings a range of
content to broadband portal
Selection also delivered to TV
AT&T sports and specials offered on all 3
screens
2.
Bell
Canada
Satellite partnership with BCE owned
Express Vu offers full package of linear
channels, DVR, HD etc.
IPTV service in 2010 with full set of
capabilities including VOD
Plan to extend online TMN service to mobile
Bell Mobile TV live TV, including NHL, CTV,
TSN, Sportsnet, The Weather Network and
other Canadian networks. Also offered nine
feeds during Winter Olympics
SlingGuide used to enable remote DVR
scheduling
130 hours of video from TMN offered to
TMN subscribers from Bell online portal
Plans to add more content shortly
Plans to enable Slingmedia-type
placeshifting in future
5.
Orange
France
Content division creates and aggregates
content from Warner Bros, Gaumont, France
Télévisions, The French Olympic Committee
Football League, Universal Music and BMG
Orange Sport and Orange Football Channels
Highlights On Demand
VOD chaptering interactive apps. including
voting, stats etc.
Advertising
Catch Up TV
Adding support for DVB-H
Seamless switching from 3G to DVB-H for live
TV feeds
Can also pause TV while taking a call
Orange Sport and Orange Football Channels
Highlights On Demand
VOD chaptering interactive apps. including
voting, stats etc.
Advertising
Catch Up TV
Placeshifting capability; no specialized
player required
1,000+ music videos on PC and TV
Orange Sport and Orange Football
Channels
Highlights On Demand
VOD chaptering interactive apps. including
voting, stats etc.
Advertising
Catch Up TV
Many providers are offering video over the
internet, and mobile screens
Source: Company statements, financial reports, press reports, interviews etc.

16. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
No.
Service
Provider
TV Mobile PC
6. PCCW
Linear and on-demand channels,
premium packages etc. License
permitting offered on 4 screens
“now” Hong Kong local channel with local
celebrities and content
Also now sports, business news and
news channels, Yellow Pages channel on
all 4 screens
Video clip sharing service “snaap” offered
across all platforms
Ads sold on 4 screens
Mobile TV service over 3G network
SD at 110 kbps and “HD” at 212 kbps
Sports, movies and news, and repurposed
channels
now channels and snaap
Advertising & Yellow Pages channel
“Standard but optimized” UI across all platforms
Bundled pricing offers discounts for multiplatform
usage
Sports, movies and news, and repurposed
channels
now channels and snaap
Advertising & Yellow Pages channel
8. SingTel
Mio TV IPTV service with linear TV,
premium packages, 100s of on-demand
titles, HDTV, DVR
IDEAS portal with 12 channels streamed;
offered in hours/month packages
11. Telstra
Telstra FOXTEL offers satellite service
with linear, premiums, DVR etc.
Hybrid T-Box broadband connected STB
links video content from Telstra online
portal BigPond to TV, and delivers free-
to-air broadcast channels. Also includes
DVR.
Mobile FOXTEL offers channel packages,
VOD etc. as part of capped-cost plan
Includes access to BigPond TV content,
which is specially “chunked” for short,
bursty mobile viewing
FOXTEL Download: Shows from existing TV
subscription package to PC
Also download pay per view movies to PC
BigPond TV: TV shows, movies on VOD plus
streamed live channels and YouTube
13. Verizon
500+ linear channels, VOD, premium
packages etc.
FiOS One Channel
VOD library of 15K+ titles
Licensing permitting content offered on 3-
screens
Open access – allows content owners
like NBC to create their own interactive
apps for deployment
Interactive Media Guide designed for
multiplatform video navigation
Can take video with you: Stop-and-transfer
to mobile phone
Media Flo and VCast mobile video services
with content from CBS, NBC, MTV, ESPN
and Comedy Central etc.
Remote management of DVR
Video feed to PC, then networked to TV in home
with blip.tv, Dailymotion and Break Media content
Enables placeshifting where licensing permits
TV Everywhere service with Turner, EPIX and
HBO
Service providers & multiplatform video initiatives
contd..
Source: Company statements, financial reports, press reports, interviews etc.

17. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Aggregation
Site
Ownership Content Offered
Multiplatform
Strategy
Outlook
Hulu.com
ABC, FOX, NBC-
Universal joint
venture
Popular TV shows from its
owners as well as various
other cable networks
TV: New initiative to use Xbox 360 and iPad to get
beyond PC. Also planning to add PS3
Mobile: New pay service Hulu Plus to support
iPhone, iTouch and iPads.
THE online distribution site for high
quality content in the US. Even so,
struggling to break even, with new
launch of fee-based service. But this
might affect audience attracted to ad
supported model
YouTube.com
Google (Not a
content owner as
such, but we
included it given
YouTube’s
massive user
base).
Mainly known for user-
generated content but
eventually partnered with
various major TV networks and
studios for video distribution
incl. CBS, HBO, Showtime,
Sony Television and Lionsgate
TV: Available via connected TVs & other CE
products from Sony, Samsung, HP, Panasonic and
others
Mobile: Pre-installed app on Android and iPhone,
can be downloaded on Windows and some Nokia
phones. Allows uploading, downloading, access to
playlists, search, browsing and sharing from phone
Trying to build on massive user base
for UGC, wooing TV content owners
to drive revenue opportunities with
some success. YouTube usage will
remain high, but we don’t see it
being the primary online option for
TV networks or studios
EPIX.com
Studio 3 Partners
(Lionsgate,
Paramount, Fox)
15,000 movies from owners,
with pre-DVD releases and
now developing own TV shows
TV: Partnered with broadband providers for
integration on their online portals, cable/IPTV
providers for VOD services and offers premium
linear channel for pay TV providers.
Mobile: Also offers mobile video service with Adobe
OpenScreen
EPIX has taken a unique partnership
route to multiplatform distribution
from the ground up. However
several major pay TV providers
including Comcast and DIRECTV
have passed on it, leaving its long-
term impact somewhat unclear
BBC iPlayer BBC
Previous seven days BBC
programming on TV and radio
TV: Partnered with BT and Virgin for delivery over
their VOD service. Also available via major gaming
consoles
Mobile: Can stream & download iPlayer video over
Wi-Fi to approved phones incl. iPhones, and on 3
and Vodafone networks using 3G. Can also sideload
on to certain Nokia phones only
Dominant TV programmer in the UK
and well-recognized in the English
speaking world. iPlayer is very
popular in the UK and BBC is driving
the new “Canvas” standard for
hybrid broadband / broadcast
devices in UK. Very well positioned
But online distributors are also getting into the act
Source: Company statements, financial reports, press reports, interviews etc.

18. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Encoding
Transcoding
Home Gateway
User Interface
PC
User Interface
TV
Content Management System Device
Registry
Content
ProtectionVideo Delivery
User Interface
Mobile
Investment in a new technology eco-system is
required for a high quality experience across platforms
No clear business model identified for multiplatform video to date

19. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Delivery Aggregation Creation
Online
Aggregators
Content/
Producers/UGC
Pure-play
CDNs
ISP
Devices Distribution Selection/Portal
Content
Distributors
Devices
Content/
Producers/UGC
Devices
• By taking over CDN role, operators at least get some revenue
• Operators can also leverage ownership of the access network and proximity to the consumer to
improve QoS
• Could charge content owners or even subscribers depending on the plans they choose
• Less conflict likely with net neutrality regulations than traffic shaping
• AT&T, Verizon, Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom & British Telecom all doing it today
Another option is to move just one step up: To become
the content delivery network
Carrier displaces CDN provider Online
Aggregators
Content
Distributors
Source: Adapted from Juniper Mkt. Viewpoint

20. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
•By statistically caching the content
inside their network, an operator can
save up to 30-40% bandwidth
•Can also off-load from upstream
links, saving on transit and linking
costs
•Caching helps speed delivery of
streaming video and other rich
media, potentially increasing
subscriber satisfaction, cutting
churn, and driving upgrades
•Operators can also match with policy
tools for intelligent network
management and routing
•Can also create business rules to
develop advanced services, such as
boost buttons and HD video tiers
Offloading Traffic
Cache delivery vs. Internet Delivery
Operators are closer and own the network
Source: PeerApp

21. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
3rd option: Operators can also create a smarter network
-- But first they need to ID the specific problems--
• Not consistently a problem across the network:
Specific areas/parts of the network particularly
challenged
• Need to accurately identify and resolve issues in these
key areas
Part of the network:
•Access, Aggregation, IP Transit,
peering points/Intl. links
Peak Traffic Times:
•~ 6pm to midnight
Peak Users:
•5% of Spanish mobile operator
Yoigo used 95% capacity
•In general, top 1% use 20-25%
& top 10% use >50%
Problematic Applications:
•Streamed video
•P2P
Public-Interest Events:
•Obama inauguration, Usain
Bolt Olympic 100 meters, MSFT
upgrades
Source: Sandvine
Peak Usage Times

22. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Policy & DPI tools allow for better targeted & more
flexible pricing
No Type of Metering Action Impact
1. Usage Based •Implement monthly usage caps •Limits traffic overall but not necessarily
at peak times
•Strong consumer backlash in US
2. Application Based •Traffic shape or limit bandwidth
by application, i.e., P2P
•Could affect user experience for real
time apps like video
•Against FCC regulations in the US
3. Time Based •Allow certain number of hours of
access/day/sub.
•High usage at peak times still possible
since there’s no limit on usage
•May need usage caps as well
4. User based •Limit bandwidth for peak users
during peak hours
•Can affect user experience
•Could create consumer backlash
5. Traffic Adaptation •Shape or transcode traffic so that
bit rate is lower through
bottlenecks
•Video quality may be degraded
•Bandwidth savings may not be
substantial without significant quality
loss
•Content owners may claim this is illegal
without their permission
6. Dynamic Tarriffing •Provide real time billing rates
that vary based on time of day,
location etc. due to network
congestion
•May reduce overall revenue
•Usually works only in areas of extreme
price sensitivity

23. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Other policy enabled/enhanced options…
"Boost" Buttons:
Consumers boost download speeds dynamically. Service providers can set the duration of the "boost" and
charge the user for it.
User-Selected Trade-Offs:
Subscribers pay more to gain a selection of specific benefits around speed and peak time usage experience. This
would involve some fairly complex trade-offs across speed, time of day, overall monthly download caps etc.
Revenue Share With Content Owner:
The content partner's content would be white-listed for a high QoE service by the service provider, and the
content owner would pay the provider or share resultant advertising /subscription revenue with the service
provider.
Advertising:
Opens up a revenue stream without adding to the already burdened consumer wallet. Advertisers are
interested in the geo-location and demographic information that service providers have available to them, as
well as more detailed information they can collect by analyzing network traffic. 89% of Service providers felt
they would need ad revenue in the next five years.
Billing/Transaction Enabling:
The service provider provides a credit card-like function, allowing subscribers to consume pay content and
billing them at the end of the month. Could also enable a micropayment model for online content., with very
small payments (of a few cents typically) could be tracked and aggregated by the service provider, and then
shared with the content partners.

24. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
No. Solution Opportunities Challenges Key Vendors
1. Pricing •Charge per bit: Direct
relationship between usage and
spend
•Low incremental investment
•Competitive challenge
•Consumer resistance
•May lose revenue
•No new service revenue
N/A
2. Multiplatform
Video
•Compete directly with OTT
•Cut churn, increase satisfaction
•Generate new revenue
•New infrastructure needed
•Content licensing
•OTT competition
•No revenue model
ALU, Ericsson, NSN,
MSFT, Harmonic,
Envivio, SeaChange,
Concurrent, Edgeware
3. Caching/
Content
Delivery
•Closer to SP service model
•Own network: major asset
•Closer to end-user
•Policy, DPI can top CDN QoE
•Margins very tight
•Significant evolution reqd. to
catch CDNs
•Net neutrality
Cisco, ALU, PeerApp,
BlueCoat, Juniper,
Ericsson-Akamai,
Oversi
4. DPI & Policy •Efficient network management
•Target problem areas, users
•New pricing/packaging tiers
•Targeted services
•Net neutrality
•Privacy
•Consumer backlash
Tekelec, Allot, Arbor,
Sandvine, Broadhop,
Juniper, NSN, ALU
5. Advertising •Non consumer wallet revenue
•Advertisers interested, esp. in
3-screen
•Targeting very valuable
•Complex, slow moving value
chain
•Scale issues
•Fragmented media buying
•Reporting requirements
SeaChange,
Concurrent, ARRIS,
Donovan, Harris,
OpenTV, BlackArrow
Summary: Options for service providers

25. Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
DOS DON'TS
• Focus on managing your network and controlling
traffic in the short term. Tools such as edge-
caching, DPI, and policy can help right away,
without input from other members of the value
chain.
• Don't expect significant ad revenue in the next
one to three years. Developing revenue-
generating models and getting buy-in from all
members of the value chain will take time, even
though there is interest in granular user data for
advertising and personalization.
• Identify bottlenecks on your network and
address solutions for those bottlenecks, rather
than looking at bandwidth expansion overall.
• Don't take any action to track usage or manage
traffic without clearly communicating it to the
consumer.
Ideally, use opt-in approaches for data collection.
• Focus on managing peak demand rather than
overall traffic. If you can manage 6pm-midnight,
you do not need to over-engineer your network.
• Don't lose any more PR battles. Invest in clearly
communicating your position and challenges to
consumers and regulators.
• Enable flexibility in bandwidth management.
There may be tradeoffs you can make with
consumers, if your policy architecture is flexible
enough. Integrate with billing and subscriber
management for the same reasons.
• Don't try to do it alone. Look for partnerships and
arrangements, both for video services on your
own portals and integrating Web content into
IPTV.
Final thoughts...

26. Aditya Kishore
Principal Analyst
ak@diametricanalysis.com
www.diametricanalysis.com
Copyright 2013 Diametric Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Questions?
March 2011