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What is Scenario? -Engage in systematic conjecture -Human beings are constantly writing scenarios, interpreting signals in the environment and reframing them into meaningful images and trajectories in to the future. Abbas Maleki [email_address]
Scenario means simply to think about the problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Feedback and feed-forward
Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenario phase
The relations between possible, probable and desired future
What is not Scenario? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Definition of Scenario ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Forecasting and Uncertainty
Differences between scenarios, forecasts and visions
Scenarios versus Forecasts
Crude Oil Rigs in US,  (Prediction)
Crude Oil Rigs in US,  (Reality)
Future is not continuation of the past necessarily
Scenario in Business ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Time Horizon ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Historical Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SRi
History
The Number of Scenarios to Generate ,[object Object]
Arraying Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scenario projects could be used for different purposes and with different focuses
Characteristic of traditional planning compared with the scenario planning approach
Scenario planning is well suited to the task of dealing with paradigmatic, non-linear change
Methods of Constructing Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1-Highly Qualitative Procedures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2-Practical Procedures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3-Cross-Impact Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Few Comments on Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scenarios on Iran’s future to 2006 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
Advantages of Scenario ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scenario as powerful instrument  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Weaknesses of Scenario ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bibliography ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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