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Proprietary & Confidential
Revenue Frameworks


Symmetric vs. Asymmetric




  Steps to Revenue




  Avoid Death Valley




  Watch the Scoreboard
       Everyday
Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Business Models




Symmetric models        Asymmetric models
are ones where the      are ones where the
user of a product       user is different from
the person paying       the person paying
for it are the same     the company for the
                        product
Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Business Models




Amazon.com              Facebook
Salesforce.com          Google.com
Yahoo Mail (old)        Gmail.com
iTunes Store            Yahoo.com (mostly)
All virtual goods       eBay.com
Hyatt.com               Twitter.com
iphone games            Like.com

                        Notice a trend...
Symmetric Business Models
   Are easiest because your team only has to focus on 1 type of customer

   There is no butterfly model of focusing users and customers

   No push and pull within internal teams on “selling out the UI to advertisers”

   Revenues and up a very accurate proxy for user interest / satisfaction so you
   only have to focus on one variable but there is friction to distribution (huge)
   Unfortunately for B2C companies usually asymmetric models dominate...

   I’d say 80% of the market cap (my very rough back of napkin) of Internet
   companies is essentially asymmetric
Why Are So Many Success on the Web Asymmetric?


Because the cost of distribution is almost zero: so very easy to make it free for consumers




            Source: The super smart Mike Spieser @
            http://laserlike.com/2009/04/18/microeconomics/
How Many Steps to Revenue
Background Story - History of Like.com




 Ojos/Riya            Like.com                             Style Shopping Engine
Face Recognition      Visual search engine                     Visual search + all features
Technology focus      but mostly used for                      and sites needed to build
                      shopping for soft                        the best way to shop for
                      goods                                    soft goods



      $0 rev               $10MM rev                                   $20MM+ rev




                                  Proprietary & Confidential
Don’t Be Too Oblique. Oblique = Miracle


  Case Study - Original Riya Model



                                               Step 4        Step 5

                                               80% will be   UGC Google
                                               public like   Images w/o
                                               Flickr        copyright
  Step 1           Step 2        Step 3

  Face rec         They will     We will tag
  will get users   upload lots   and they
                   of photos
                                               Step 4        Step 5

                                               They will     CPM monetize
                                               come back
                                               often
Shortest Distance Between Two Points...


  Case Study Like.com




           Step 1               Step 2

           Get users to         Sell their clicks
           search for           to merchants
           products             on a CPC
Note to Self: Silicon Valley and Death Valley Are Both in CA
Two Dimensions - Traffic and Intent to Transact
Consumer Intent to Do Commercial Transaction
                                                             Don’t Be Low Traffic and Low Commercial Intent



                                                                     Lead Gen                  Nirvana
                                               High Intent



                                                                     Billshrink                Only Google Search
                                                                     Like.com                  Twitter?




                                                                                                Top 20 sites
                                                                    Death Valley
                                                                                                Facebook
                                               Low Intent




                                                                    Most Web 2.0
                                                                                                Twitter?
                                                                    companies
                                                                                                Online Games



                                                                        Low Traffic                 High Traffic

                                                                         Scale in Terms of Number of Users
Consumer Intent to Do Commercial Transaction
                                                             Corollary: Relevancy Doesn’t Equal Intent


                                                             Any ad with Budweiser Girls on a        Botox ads on dating sites
                                                                       Mommy blog
                                               High Intent




                                                              Geriatric shoes on a MMORPG       Dogfood ads next to photos of
                                                                         gaming site                       dogs
                                               Low Intent




                                                                    Low Relevancy                       High Relevancy

                                                                          Relevancy of the Ads Put
Revenue: How to Build it. Step 1: Focus on it




 You can’t move a number you don’t focus on everyday
Start Early - Takes 1 year of tuning to make it work
  Daily Average Revenue at Like.com from Launch



                             2007   2008




            First year
Do A/B Testing for Causality



      Data        Information    Knowledge           Wisdom

      One          Two points    Correlations       Causation
      point        compared




     It is 72      3 degrees     When there      Jet stream moving
  degrees today   warmer than     are clouds        south brings
                   yesterday    it tends to be     storms to CA
                                      cold



   You don’t want a data warehouse you
     want a small room of causations
Keys to Wisdom Tracking


    A/B testing environment that is parallel - not serial

    Multiple independent machines (We have 7 sets now)

    Define one or two key variables (CTR and CR for us)

    Run tests with error bars on the results so you know when to stop

    Don’t do releases where any new feature is on - turn on later 20/80

    Have scale - as you divide you traffic it will take a while to get results

    Hire Ph.Ds (we have 3) as they are better at experiment design
Parting Thoughts



   Successful entrepreneurs are more
  interested in being successful than in
                being right
              One self serving note: We are hiring for
         backend Java developers and front end engineers


                        munjal@like.com
                        munjalshah (twitter)

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Munjal Shah on Revenue - The Founder Institute

  • 2. Revenue Frameworks Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Steps to Revenue Avoid Death Valley Watch the Scoreboard Everyday
  • 3. Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Business Models Symmetric models Asymmetric models are ones where the are ones where the user of a product user is different from the person paying the person paying for it are the same the company for the product
  • 4. Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Business Models Amazon.com Facebook Salesforce.com Google.com Yahoo Mail (old) Gmail.com iTunes Store Yahoo.com (mostly) All virtual goods eBay.com Hyatt.com Twitter.com iphone games Like.com Notice a trend...
  • 5. Symmetric Business Models Are easiest because your team only has to focus on 1 type of customer There is no butterfly model of focusing users and customers No push and pull within internal teams on “selling out the UI to advertisers” Revenues and up a very accurate proxy for user interest / satisfaction so you only have to focus on one variable but there is friction to distribution (huge) Unfortunately for B2C companies usually asymmetric models dominate... I’d say 80% of the market cap (my very rough back of napkin) of Internet companies is essentially asymmetric
  • 6. Why Are So Many Success on the Web Asymmetric? Because the cost of distribution is almost zero: so very easy to make it free for consumers Source: The super smart Mike Spieser @ http://laserlike.com/2009/04/18/microeconomics/
  • 7. How Many Steps to Revenue
  • 8. Background Story - History of Like.com Ojos/Riya Like.com Style Shopping Engine Face Recognition Visual search engine Visual search + all features Technology focus but mostly used for and sites needed to build shopping for soft the best way to shop for goods soft goods $0 rev $10MM rev $20MM+ rev Proprietary & Confidential
  • 9. Don’t Be Too Oblique. Oblique = Miracle Case Study - Original Riya Model Step 4 Step 5 80% will be UGC Google public like Images w/o Flickr copyright Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Face rec They will We will tag will get users upload lots and they of photos Step 4 Step 5 They will CPM monetize come back often
  • 10. Shortest Distance Between Two Points... Case Study Like.com Step 1 Step 2 Get users to Sell their clicks search for to merchants products on a CPC
  • 11. Note to Self: Silicon Valley and Death Valley Are Both in CA
  • 12. Two Dimensions - Traffic and Intent to Transact
  • 13. Consumer Intent to Do Commercial Transaction Don’t Be Low Traffic and Low Commercial Intent Lead Gen Nirvana High Intent Billshrink Only Google Search Like.com Twitter? Top 20 sites Death Valley Facebook Low Intent Most Web 2.0 Twitter? companies Online Games Low Traffic High Traffic Scale in Terms of Number of Users
  • 14. Consumer Intent to Do Commercial Transaction Corollary: Relevancy Doesn’t Equal Intent Any ad with Budweiser Girls on a Botox ads on dating sites Mommy blog High Intent Geriatric shoes on a MMORPG Dogfood ads next to photos of gaming site dogs Low Intent Low Relevancy High Relevancy Relevancy of the Ads Put
  • 15. Revenue: How to Build it. Step 1: Focus on it You can’t move a number you don’t focus on everyday
  • 16. Start Early - Takes 1 year of tuning to make it work Daily Average Revenue at Like.com from Launch 2007 2008 First year
  • 17. Do A/B Testing for Causality Data Information Knowledge Wisdom One Two points Correlations Causation point compared It is 72 3 degrees When there Jet stream moving degrees today warmer than are clouds south brings yesterday it tends to be storms to CA cold You don’t want a data warehouse you want a small room of causations
  • 18. Keys to Wisdom Tracking A/B testing environment that is parallel - not serial Multiple independent machines (We have 7 sets now) Define one or two key variables (CTR and CR for us) Run tests with error bars on the results so you know when to stop Don’t do releases where any new feature is on - turn on later 20/80 Have scale - as you divide you traffic it will take a while to get results Hire Ph.Ds (we have 3) as they are better at experiment design
  • 19. Parting Thoughts Successful entrepreneurs are more interested in being successful than in being right One self serving note: We are hiring for backend Java developers and front end engineers munjal@like.com munjalshah (twitter)