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Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide




                                                      Research Report

                                                      The 700MHz spectrum band: market drivers
                                                      and harmonisation challenges worldwide
                                                      September 2012
                                                      Morgan Mullooly




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                          2



       Contents

       Slide no.                                                                       Slide no.

       5.    Executive summary                                                         21. Use of terrestrial TV is limited in some parts of MEA
       6.    Executive summary                                                         22. MEA is at an early stage of the DSO, so is in a good position to take
       7.    Recommendations                                                               advantage of advances in DTT technology
       8.    Recommendations                                                           23. Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU
                                                                                           Region 1 – Europe
       9.    Introduction
                                                                                       24. In Europe, more sub-1GHz mobile spectrum is needed, but releasing
       10.   Satisfying demand for spectrum is becoming increasingly difficult
                                                                                           700MHz is problematic
       11.   A key challenge for policy makers is to determine the most
                                                                                       25. More spectrum is needed in Europe because of the increasing demand
             socio-economically advantageous spectrum assignments
                                                                                           for mobile data
       12.   Sub-1GHz spectrum like the 700MHz and 800MHz bands is particularly
                                                                                       26. Some countries in Europe have yet to issue licences for the 800MHz
             suitable for mobile communications
                                                                                           band
       13.   Changes to international frequency allocations are made at the ITU’s
                                                                                       27. European regulators recognise the international importance of the
             World Radiocommunication Conferences
                                                                                           700MHz band, but are wary of problems with its release
       14.   At WRC-07, it was decided to create co-primary allocations between
                                                                                       28. In Europe, it has been suggested that convergence may help
             mobile and broadcasting at the top of the UHF band
                                                                                           broadcasters to vacate the 700MHz band
       15.   At WRC-12, it was agreed to allocate 700MHz spectrum for mobile use
                                                                                       29. European broadcasting industry groups are opposed to the release of
             in Region 1, in order to align it with Regions 2 and 3
                                                                                           the 700MHz band
       16.   Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU
                                                                                       30. The challenge of harmonisation
             Region 1
                                                                                       31. The challenge of harmonisation – The importance of
       17.   Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU
                                                                                           harmonisation
             Region 1 – The Middle East and Africa
                                                                                       32. Adopting harmonised standards enables operators to reap the benefits
       18.   Many factors drive the need for 700MHz spectrum to be made available
                                                                                           of mobile technology effectively, and to offer better services to
             for mobile use in MEA
                                                                                           subscribers
       19.   Some countries in MEA already use some of the 800MHz band for
                                                                                       33. Spectrum harmonisation is always a challenge
             cellular services
                                                                                       34. Harmonisation of the 700MHz band will be one of the most important
       20.   Mobile networks are important for the delivery of broadband services in
                                                                                           agenda items under consideration at WRC-15 and is particularly fraught
             Africa and the Middle East
                                                                                       35. Several organisations will liaise with NRAs and other spectrum bodies in
                                                                                           an attempt to achieve regional, and worldwide, harmonisation
      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                       3



       Contents

       Slide no.                                                                     Slide no.

       36. The challenge of harmonisation – ITU Region 1                             51. South Korea has aligned 2×20MHz in the 700MHz band with the APT
       37. Views on the 700MHz band are starting to form in some countries of            700MHz band plan, and further harmonisation may follow
           Western Europe                                                            52. Japan’s 700MHz band plan is compatible with that of the APT
       38. An allocation for aeronautical navigation services in the 700MHz and      53. China is contemplating the use of the TDD band plan, while uncertainty
           800MHz bands poses problems in some countries in the east of Region           surrounds Malaysia’s plans for the 700MHz band
           1                                                                         54. Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum
       39. Europe will face many challenges if it aims to harmonise its 700MHz       55. Several other wireless industry stakeholders may influence plans for
           band plan with those of other regions                                         future use of the 700MHz band
       40. The UAE was the first country in Region 1 to publish its intended plan    56. The PMSE industry strongly advocates that the 700MHz band should be
           for the 700MHz band                                                           retained for DTT use
       41. Russia is the only Region 1 country to have already awarded spectrum      57. An ITU mandate assigns more spectrum for PPDR
           in the 700MHz band, which could lead to incompatibilities with other
                                                                                     58. ‘White space’ refers to UHF spectrum not used for DTT at specific
           plans
                                                                                         geographical locations
       42. Africa is also discussing alternative plans for the 700MHz band
                                                                                     59. Japan has allocated 10MHz in the 700MHz band for ITS
       43. The challenge of harmonisation – ITU Region 2
                                                                                     60. L-DTPS: local digital TV programming service
       44. The USA’s 700MHz band plan is unlikely to be adopted widely
                                                                                     61. Beyond the 700MHz band
           elsewhere
                                                                                     62. Spectrum bands below 700MHz could be assigned for mobile use, but it
       45. Only one of the USA’s closest neighbours has adopted its plan for the
                                                                                         is highly unlikely
           700MHz band
                                                                                     63. Incentive auctions could release some spectrum for mobile in the
       46. In the Caribbean, the proposal to implement a non-standard 700MHz
                                                                                         600MHz band in the USA, while the UK is reviewing policy
           band plan has delayed the roll-out of LTE in some countries
                                                                                     64. About the author and Analysys Mason
       47. It is not too late for ECTEL to discard its original 700MHz band plan
                                                                                     65. About the author
       48. Elsewhere in ITU Region 2, digital migration has been slow and there is
           no clear indication which band plan will be adopted                       66. About Analysys Mason
       49. The challenge of harmonisation: ITU Region 3                              67. Research from Analysys Mason
       50. The APT’s paired 700MHz band plan has been accepted as                    68. Consulting from Analysys Mason
           standardised by the 3GPP
      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                    4



       List of figures
       Figure 1:  Wireless data traffic, worldwide, 2011–2017                       Figure 21: The APT 700MHz band plan and the position of licences awarded
       Figure 2:  Propagation characteristics of various 3GPP bands                            in Russia in the 700MHz band
       Figure 3:  Notable assignments of spectrum by the ITU for mobile in Region   Figure 22: Proposed 700MHz band plans for MEA and the APT 700MHz
                  1                                                                            band plan
       Figure 4: Drivers for release of 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in MEA       Figure 23: The USA’s 700MHz band plan
       Figure 5: Digital dividends in Europe and MEA                                Figure 24: ECTEL’s 700MHz band plan and the US FCC 700MHz band plan
       Figure 6: Fixed broadband penetration as a percentage of households,         Figure 25: Analogue switch-off targets for selected countries in Latin
                  Africa, 2011                                                                 America
       Figure 7: Proportion of households that have a least one TV, Africa, July    Figure 26: The APT’s 700MHz band plans
                  2012                                                              Figure 27: The APT’s FDD 700MHz (3GPP Band 28) and South Korea’s
       Figure 8: ITU’s recommended timetable for DSO in MEA                                    700MHz band plans
       Figure 9: Drivers for release of 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in Europe    Figure 28: The APT’s FDD 700MHz (3GPP Band 28) and Japan’s 700MHz
                                                                                               band plans
       Figure 10: Wireless data traffic, Europe, 2011–2017
                                                                                    Figure 29: Summary of non-telecoms stakeholders in discussions about the
       Figure 11: Status of analogue switch-off in European countries, September
                                                                                               700MHz band
                  2012
                                                                                    Figure 30: Potential applications of UHF white space
       Figure 12: Status of the DTT platform in European countries,
                  September 2012                                                    Figure 31: Japan’s 700MHz band plan
       Figure 13: BBC iPlayer requests by device type, UK, December 2010 and        Figure 32: The correlation between device size and spectrum band
                  December 2011
       Figure 14: Cost/benefit analysis of harmonisation of a digital dividend
                  sub-band for mobile communication services in the EU
       Figure 15: The challenges and benefits of harmonisation
       Figure 16: Truncated list of bands harmonised by the 3GPP for LTE
       Figure 17: World regions and associated spectrum management
                  organisations
       Figure 18: ITU RR No. 5.312 aeronautical navigation band for some
                  countries in the east of ITU Region 1
       Figure 19: Digital dividend band plans in Asia–Pacific, Europe, and Canada
                  and the USA
      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
       Figure 20: Proposed 700MHz band plans, the UAE and the UK
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide               5




       Executive summary

       Recommendations

       Introduction

       Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1

       The challenge of harmonisation

       Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum

       Beyond the 700MHz band

       About the author and Analysys Mason




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                     6



       Executive summary
        The 700MHz band refers to a range of frequencies between 700MHz and 800MHz. This spectrum was used worldwide for
         broadcasting TV, but has now been allocated to mobile services in ITU Region 2 (the Americas) and ITU Region 3 (Asia–Pacific).
         It is one of the most commercially interesting bands being made available to mobile network operators (MNOs). Already, in
         countries such as Japan and the USA, subscribers are enjoying the additional coverage and capacity made possible by this
         spectrum.
        The impending reallocation of the 700MHz band to mobile services, on a co-primary basis with broadcasting, in ITU Region 1
         creates an opportunity for multi-regional harmonisation of the use of the 700MHz band for LTE, for which there is a potentially
         large addressable market, with associated economies of scale.
        The Asia–Pacific Telecommunity’s (APT’s) 700MHz band plan (or 3GPP Band 28) has been well received in ITU Region 3 and has
         been adopted, or is planned to be adopted, by several countries in Asia–Pacific. Countries in the Middle East and Africa (MEA)
         that have not aligned with the European 800MHz band plan (which overlaps with the APT 700MHz band plan), may align their
         700MHz band plans with the 3GPP Band 28. Similarly, it is likely that countries in the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) will
         align with the APT 700MHz plan.
        In Europe, where the 700MHz band has not yet been allocated to mobile services, broadcasting industry groups are opposed to
         any reallocation of the band. However, it has been suggested that the process of removing broadcasters from the 700MHz band
         will become easier as consumers increasingly view video content on a wider range of devices using a greater variety of services,
         and the importance of traditional linear TV diminishes.
        Several wireless industry stakeholders may influence plans for use of the 700MHz band. These include stakeholders for
         programme making and special events (PMSE), public protection and disaster relief (PPDR), machine-to-machine (M2M) services
         and other communications in white space, intelligent transport systems (ITS), and local-digital TV programming services (L-DTPS).
        Spectrum bands below 700MHz could be assigned for mobile use, but this is unlikely. It becomes increasingly difficult to use
         frequencies below 700MHz for mobile services because of the need for larger antennas to account for greater levels of RF noise.



      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide               7




       Executive summary

       Recommendations

       Introduction

       Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1

       The challenge of harmonisation

       Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum

       Beyond the 700MHz band

       About the author and Analysys Mason




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                        8



       Recommendations
        National regulatory authorities (NRAs) must embrace harmonisation. Good spectrum management involves releasing more
         spectrum, but of a kind that allows a country or region to benefit from economies of scale, interoperability, international roaming
         and interference reduction. Regulators will have to work together to ensure that their plans will not conflict with those of their
         neighbours.
        Regulators should consult on their band plan intentions as soon as possible. This will allow the wireless and broadcast
         industries to plan their spectrum policies accordingly.
        Regulators should engage with wireless industry stakeholders on the future of the 700MHz band. The group that is lobbying
         for the 700MHz band to be allocated to mobile is particularly strong, but other stakeholders have interests in the band. Regulators
         should engage with all stakeholders before making a decision on allocation of the band.
        Digital terrestrial TV (DTT) broadcasters should begin feasibility studies on technology upgrades that allow new services
         to be accommodated in less spectrum. The broadcasting community must examine technological innovations, such as DVB-T2
         and single-frequency networks (SFNs), and be prepared to implement them. Such techniques may increase spectrum efficiency
         and enable DTT platforms to provide more high-definition (HD) services, which would make DTT services more attractive to
         consumers.
        DTT broadcasters, regulators and policy makers should critically assess the role of public service broadcasting and the
         terrestrial broadcasting platform. Terrestrial transmission continues to be the primary platform for TV distribution in many
         countries, but other options are available. Cable, satellite, IPTV and mobile TV platforms could all conceivably support HD
         digital TV.
        Device vendors should consider the implications of adopting particular band plans. In the USA, two non-interoperable
         classes of device use the lower 700MHz band. This was an unanticipated development, and raises concerns about the
         development of a vibrant device ecosystem. Regulators, supported by MNOs, must be proactive in assessing this risk or they may
         create a situation in which it is difficult for operators to obtain mobile broadband devices.



      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide               9




       Executive summary

       Recommendations

       Introduction

       Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1

       The challenge of harmonisation

       Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum

       Beyond the 700MHz band

       About the author and Analysys Mason




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                                      10



       Satisfying demand for spectrum is becoming increasingly difficult

       Figure 1: Wireless data traffic, worldwide, 2011–2017 [Source: Analysys    Global demand for mobile data is growing rapidly. Analysys
       Mason, 2012]                                                                Mason forecasts that the volume of mobile data traffic
                                                                                   carried over a cellular network will grow at a CAGR of 40.8%
               4000
                                                                                   worldwide from 2011 to 2016 (excluding Wi-Fi offload
                                                                                   traffic).1 Demand for more mobile data generates demand for
               3500                                                                more spectrum with which to deliver greater capacity and
                                                                                   drive faster throughput. However, satisfying spectrum
                                                                                   demand is becoming increasingly difficult.
               3000
                                                                                  In order for more spectrum to be made available for mobile
                                                                                   broadband use:
               2500
                                                                                      − licensees may be required to use spectrum more
                                                                                        efficiently so that some can be released, which may
               2000                                                                     present a problem, if it causes devices to need
                                                                                        modification
               1500                                                                   − spectrum may be re-allocated from one use to another,
                                                                                        which may be time consuming and be resisted by the
          m
          B
          P
          T
          h
          n
          o
          e
          p
          a
          c
          )
          (
          r
          t
          f
          i




               1000                                                                     incumbent spectrum user.
                                                                                  The number of stakeholders seeking more radio spectrum
                 500                                                               makes it increasingly complex either to reassign spectrum (to
                                                                                   allow a different communication application to be used in a
                                                                                   band) or to refarm it (to allow the use of an alternative
                    0                                                              transmission or modulation standard in a band).
                         2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
                                                                                 1
                                                                                     See Analysys Mason’s Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2012–
                                                                                     2017.


      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                   11


       A key challenge for policy makers is to determine the most
       socio-economically advantageous spectrum assignments
        Spectrum planners are faced with competing demands from users for a multitude of purposes, including:
          − mobile voice and broadband
          − public protection and disaster relief
          − broadcast TV
          − machine-to-machine (M2M)
          − programme making and special events
          − radio astronomy
          − military and defence
          − radar and aeronautical.
        The role of the spectrum policy makers is to try to accommodate these conflicting demands. One key input in this process is to
         assess how socio-economically advantageous each of the competing uses is. This is no easy task. For example, assigning more
         spectrum to MNOs may have the greatest macro-economic impact, but this must be weighed against the more-intangible social
         value of allocating spectrum to the public sector or to public service broadcasting.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                       12


       Sub-1GHz spectrum like the 700MHz and 800MHz bands is particularly
       suitable for mobile communications
       Figure 2: Propagation characteristics of various 3GPP bands [Source:    Sub-1GHz spectrum is particularly valuable because it
       Analysys Mason, 2012]                                                    propagates further and penetrates buildings better than
                                                                                higher frequencies. It is, therefore, ideal for deploying
                                                                                wide-area mobile coverage relatively quickly, including for
                                       800MHz
                                                                                in-building use.
                                         5.6km2
                                                                               Mobile operators also have access to bands above 1GHz,
                                                                                including 1800MHz, 2100MHz, 2300MHz and 2600MHz.
                                       900MHz                                   These are suitable for delivering very high data speeds in
                                         4.8km2                                 areas where capacity is particularly constrained.




                                      1800MHz
                                         1.7km2

                                      2100MHz
                                          1km2

                                      2600MHz
                                         0.6km2




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                    13


       Changes to international frequency allocations are made at the ITU’s
       World Radiocommunication Conferences
       Figure 3: Notable assignments of spectrum by the ITU for mobile in Region 1 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

                  WARC-791                    WARC-921                     WRC-00                       WRC-07           WRC-15
                   900MHz                     1800MHz                      2600MHz                      800MHz           700MHz
                                              2100MHz
                                                                                                       IMT-2000         IMT-2000
                      GSM                      IMT-2000                     IMT-2000                 IMT-Advanced      IMT-Advanced


        The aim of the World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC) is to make decisions regarding allocation of radio-frequency
         spectrum, which are documented in an international frequency allocation table and in associated WRC resolutions. The challenge
         is to identify how much spectrum is needed for various wireless services, to identify candidate bands and to examine if and how
         different services can share these.
        At the end of each WRC, an agenda is set for the next conference, providing a roadmap for the development of wireless
         communications in the next four or five years.
        Figure 3 shows some of the main decisions relevant to mobile frequency allocation in ITU Region 1 taken by past WRCs,
         beginning with the GSM allocation in 1979, which was arguably the catalyst for the global mobile revolution that began in the early
         1990s.




       1
           WARC = World Administrative Radio Conference, renamed as the World Radiocommunication Conference in 1993.

      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                 14


       At WRC-07, it was decided to create co-primary allocations between
       mobile and broadcasting at the top of the UHF band
        WRC-07 decided to allocate the 700MHz and 800MHz bands on a regional level to mobile communications, for use by IMT-2000
         and IMT-Advanced systems, as follows:
          − 790–862MHz (the 800MHz band) in ITU Region 1 (Africa, Europe and the Middle East)
          − 698–806MHz (the 700MHz band) in ITU Regions 2 and 3.
        The discrepancy in bandwidth allocation between the regions was the result of established uses of the UHF band.
          − The Geneva agreement of 2006 (GE06) for countries in ITU Region 1 planned the transition to digital TV broadcasting in VHF
            spectrum (174–230MHz) and UHF spectrum (originally 470–862MHz). By WRC-07, implementation of DTT was well underway
            in many European countries, which intended 790–862MHz to be their ‘digital dividend’.
          − In other regions, 2G cellular systems already used spectrum in a different part of the 800MHz band (for example, CDMA850)
            and so additional spectrum was identified in the 698–790MHz band for future use.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                    15


       At WRC-12, it was agreed to allocate 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in
       Region 1, in order to align it with Regions 2 and 3
        WRC-12 agreed a provisional resolution to co-allocate spectrum between mobile and broadcasting in the 694–790MHz band (the
         700MHz band) in ITU Region 1, to be ratified at WRC-15. This resolution was unusual because the allocation of this band was not
         on the agenda and came about as a result of lobbying by delegates from MEA, who stressed the importance of the 700MHz band
         for deployment of wireless broadband services in their regions; it is expected that this extra spectrum can help to bridge the gap
         between emerging and developed markets in terms of wireless broadband availability.
        WRC-15 will specify the technical and regulatory conditions, channelling and other arrangements, including regional and global
         harmonisation, for the 700MHz band, as mandated by the following Agenda Items set at WRC-12.
          − Agenda Item 1.1: ‘To consider additional spectrum allocations to the mobile service on a primary basis and identification of
            additional frequency bands for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) and related regulatory provisions, to facilitate the
            development of terrestrial mobile broadband applications …’ This means that the ITU will consider reallocation of a number of
            bands to mobile at WRC-15.
          − Agenda Item 1.2: “To examine the results of ITU-R studies… on the use of the frequency band 694–790 MHz by the mobile,
            except aeronautical mobile, service in Region 1 and take the appropriate measures …”.
        In preparation for WRC-15, studies began in July 2012 on the use by mobile of the spectrum in the 698–862MHz range (spanning
         established 700MHz and 800MHz bands) by the ITU-R in a Joint Task Group (JTG 4-5-6-7). The group’s remit is to draft ITU-R
         recommendations and reports about the technical viability of allocating the 700MHz band to mobile and broadcast on a co-primary
         basis.
        Spectrum in the 700MHz band could be made available by regulators in the MEA before 2015, but it is not expected to be available
         in Europe until around 2022–2023 because of the complexity of moving DTT from this band.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide               16




       Executive summary

       Recommendations

       Introduction

       Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1

       The challenge of harmonisation

       Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum

       Beyond the 700MHz band

       About the author and Analysys Mason




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide               17




       Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1

                       The Middle East and Africa

                       Europe




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                    18


       Many factors drive the need for 700MHz spectrum to be made available for
       mobile use in MEA
       Figure 4: Drivers for release of 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in MEA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]



         1. Insufficient sub-1GHz spectrum
         1. Insufficient sub-1GHz spectrum
            Several countries in MEA use 850MHz for cellular services and so cannot make the
            Several countries in MEA use 850MHz for cellular services and so cannot make the
            800MHz band available as it is configured in Europe.
            800MHz band available as it is configured in Europe.


         2. Development policy perspective
         2. Development policy perspective                                                                      There is a recognisable need
            Mobile broadband is of great importance to developments in both regions.
            Mobile broadband is of great importance to developments in both regions.                           to release sub-1GHz spectrum
                                                                                                                            in MEA


         3. Limited use of terrestrial TV
         3. Limited use of terrestrial TV
            Terrestrial broadcasting is of relatively little importance, compared with other TV platforms,
            Terrestrial broadcasting is of relatively little importance, compared with other TV platforms,
            in several countries in the region, while in others it is used, but provides
            in several countries in the region, while in others it is used, but provides
            only a few channels.
            only a few channels.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                            19


       Some countries in MEA already use some of the 800MHz band for cellular
       services
       Figure 5: Digital dividends in Europe and MEA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

                                          790MHz                                         862MHz

                                                                                                           800MHz band digital dividend
                                        TV broadcasting band
                                                                                                                     2×30MHz

                                                                                                 Downlink 30MHz                     Uplink 30MHz

                                                                                       Digital
                                        TV broadcasting band                          dividend                         CDMA850
                                                                                       16MHz


                                          790MHz 806MHz


        A chief reason for interest in 700MHz spectrum is that many countries in MEA are unable to make the 800MHz band available
         because they use the 850MHz band for CDMA/LTE850.
        Many regulators in MEA have licensed spectrum above 806MHz and operators have deployed CDMA networks in the 806–
         890MHz band, which they are likely to refarm in order to use LTE.
        Furthermore, in countries in the region that are using the 800MHz spectrum for broadcasting, the digital switchover (DSO) has not
         happened because of political and regulatory inertia, as well as the lack of a large terrestrial TV market to pay for the switchover.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                    20


       Mobile networks are important for the delivery of broadband services in
       Africa and the Middle East
       Figure 6: Fixed broadband penetration as a percentage of households,    Mobile services are extremely important for the
       Africa, 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]                              socio-economic development of Africa because the
                                                                                penetration of fixed broadband is very low.
                                                                               Vast land masses, sparsely distributed populations, difficult
                                                                                terrain, low consumer purchasing power, political issues and
                                                                                various other factors have hindered the development of a
                                                                                fixed infrastructure in Africa.
                                                                               In the Middle East, demand for mobile data services is
                                                                                growing and more spectrum is needed to accommodate
                                                                                this demand.
                                                                               In other parts of the world, a wireless broadband ecosystem,
                                                                                comprising content, applications, service models and device
                                                                                categories, has begun to develop in the 700MHz band, and
                                                                                this could be exploited in MEA.
                  15–50%
                  10–15%                                                       A vibrant wireless broadband industry can in itself be a huge
                  5–10%                                                         driver for economic growth and job creation.
                  0–5%
                  No data




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                               21



       Use of terrestrial TV is limited in some parts of MEA
        In Africa, terrestrial TV broadcasting does not have the same    Figure 7: Proportion of households that have a least one TV, Africa, July
         level of take-up, or number of channels, as it does in Europe.   2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]

        In several countries in the Middle East, fibre networks are
         well established, providing digital TV, as well as broadband
         services.
        A large proportion of countries in MEA have fewer than three
         free-to-air analogue terrestrial TV channels.
        Countries in MEA started planning DSO much later than
         those in Europe and consequently are well positioned to use
         newer technologies, such as DVB-T2, which offer better
         spectral efficiency.
        In Europe, in contrast, most countries planned DSO some
         years ago and hence use DVB-T with multi-frequency
         networks (MFNs). Substantial planning would be needed to
         migrate to the more-recent technology option of DVB-T2 with
         single-frequency networks (SFNs).




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                               22


       MEA is at an early stage of the DSO, so is in a good position to take
       advantage of advances in DTT technology
       Figure 8: ITU’s recommended timetable for DSO in MEA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]


                   Start of informal frequency
                   Start of informal frequency                       Finalisation of national DSO
                                                                     Finalisation of national DSO                      Target start of the analogue switch-off
                                                                                                                       Target start of the analogue switch-off
                     co-ordination activities
                     co-ordination activities                     and digital dividend allocation plans
                                                                  and digital dividend allocation plans                              in the region
                                                                                                                                      in the region




                                Adoption of a common
                                Adoption of a common                       Initial digital terrestrial transmission
                                                                            Initial digital terrestrial transmission             Target completion of analogue switch-off
                                                                                                                                 Target completion of analogue switch-off
                                 digital TV standard
                                  digital TV standard                                 target for the region
                                                                                       target for the region                                  in the region
                                                                                                                                               in the region




             3Q 2012                  4Q 2012           1Q 2013                2Q 2013                  3Q 2013                 3Q 2014               3Q 2015


        The African Telecommunications Union (ATU) has developed a roadmap for digital migration, covering frequency co-ordination,
         adoption of standards and transition timelines, which complies with the ITU’s 2015 deadline for analogue switch-off (ASO). Only
         nine of 54 countries have launched DTT (Algeria, Gabon, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Tunisia and Uganda).
        Many countries in MEA are only now starting to plan a DSO, and this late planning may be turned to their advantage. African
         countries are now well placed to take advantage of advances in the DTT standards by using DVB-T2, which achieves better
         capacity (and use of SFNs) than its predecessor, DVB-T, which is widely used in Europe. Alternatively, countries with poor
         terrestrial transmission infrastructure could consider adopting satellite as their free-to-air solution.



      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide               23




       Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1

                       The Middle East and Africa

                       Europe




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                           24


       In Europe, more sub-1GHz mobile spectrum is needed, but releasing
       700MHz is problematic
       Figure 9: Drivers for release of 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in Europe [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]




           In Europe, the recognised
            need for more sub-1GHz
           spectrum is coupled with
               the complexity of
                implementation




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                                     25


       More spectrum is needed in Europe because of the increasing demand for
       mobile data
        In Europe, MNOs have made strong calls for more spectrum                                  Figure 10: Wireless data traffic, Europe, 2011–2017 [Source: Analysys
         in response to the demand for mobile data.                                                Mason, 2012]

        Estimates suggest that wireless data traffic will continue to                                    700
         grow steadily in the region during the next five years,
         although usage is beginning to level off in some countries. 1
                                                                                                          600
        Despite the increasing use by operators of Wi-Fi to offload
         traffic, more licensed spectrum is expected to be required.
        The release of the 700MHz band for Europe is recognised in                                       500
         the objectives of the European Union’s (EU’s) Radio
         Spectrum Policy Programme (RSPP), which was adopted by
         the European Parliament in February 2012 and which draws                                         400
         very heavily on the EU’s Digital Agenda targets.
        A target has been set to identify 1200MHz of spectrum that                                       300
         can be allocated for mobile communication. Around 800MHz
         is currently available, leaving around 400MHz of additional




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                                                                                                    (
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                                                                                                    t
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         spectrum to be found; the release of over 60MHz in the
         700MHz band would go some way to achieving this target.
        Sub-1GHz spectrum is excellent in terms of mobile                                                100
         coverage, but European MNOs face capacity challenges and
         for them, use of supra-1GHz spectrum may be a more
         appropriate solution.                                                                               0
                                                                                                              2011     2012     2013      2014     2015     2016     2017
       1
           See Analysys Mason’s Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2012–
           2017.


      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                           26



       Some countries in Europe have yet to issue licences for the 800MHz band
        European regulators recognise the importance and potential       Figure 11: Status of analogue switch-off in European countries, September
         of the 700MHz band, in terms of the global economies of          2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]
         scale that may be realised by its use, but are wary of the
         difficulties that will be encountered in freeing it up.
        Furthermore, discussions about release of more sub-1GHz
         spectrum in the 700MHz band in Europe may seem
         premature, given the fact that some countries have yet to
         issue licences for use of the 800MHz band.
        The ITU’s recommended deadline for ASO in the UHF band
         is 17 June 2015 for all ITU regions. In Europe, a target date
         of January 2013 has been set for ASO.
        Implementation dates for ASO vary widely across Europe. In
         some countries, DTT has been in use for almost 15 years
         (the UK was the first country to launch DVB-T, in 1997).
        However, some countries are in a period of simulcast of
         analogue and digital, which has been extended for much
         longer than was initially expected. As a result, the 800MHz
         band has not yet been vacated sufficiently to allow the
         spectrum to be awarded to mobile operators in some
         countries.

                                                                                 ASO achieved
                                                                                 ASO not yet achieved



      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                  27


       European regulators recognise the international importance of the
       700MHz band, but are wary of problems with its release
       Figure 12: Status of the DTT platform in European countries,        Countries using DVB-T and MFNs need to consider how
       September 2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]                        networks might be migrated to DVB-T2 and SFNs, which
                                                                            offer significant spectrum efficiency benefits, as well as
                                                                            capacity for DTT platforms to deliver all-HD content.
                                                                            However, replanning the 700MHz band poses several
                                                                            challenges, including the following.
                                                                            − DTT is still used as public service broadcasting platform in
                                                                              many parts of Europe, even though cable, satellite and
                                                                              online and IP-based platforms also distribute commercial
                                                                              broadcasting content to many homes. In France, Greece,
                                                                              Italy, Portugal, Spain and the UK, where DTT is the
                                                                              primary TV distribution platform, freeing up more
                                                                              broadcasting spectrum poses particular challenges.
                                                                            − Long-term licences have been awarded to broadcasters
                                                                              operating in the 470–790MHz band and specific
                                                                              obligations are in place, such as those of household
                                                                              coverage for public service broadcasting (for example,
                                                                              coverage of more than 98.5% of the population in the UK).
                                                                            − Complex frequency co-ordination is needed in the
                                                                              planning of radio spectrum to avoid cross-border
                                                                              interference. Multi-country co-ordination arrangements are
                                                                              in place to avoid interference in border areas in Europe,
              DTT is main distribution platform
                                                                              where spectrum availability for DTT is particularly
              DTT is second distribution platform
              DTT is third or fourth distribution platform
                                                                              constrained. Any changes to band plans must be carefully
                                                                              co-ordinated with neighbouring countries.

      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                           28


       In Europe, it has been suggested that convergence may help broadcasters
       to vacate the 700MHz band
        Policy makers must take a long-term view of the direction of     Figure 13: BBC iPlayer requests by device type, UK, December 2010 and
         the broadcasting industry, and of how people will access TV      December 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]
         content in the future. Some industry observers suggest that
         the 700MHz band may not be awarded in Europe until as                   200
         late as 2023. Policy makers need to consider if broadcast will          180
         still be an important medium at that time.
                                                                                 160
        Despite its importance in many countries in Europe, DTT
         already appears antiquated to some TV viewers –                         140
         particularly younger ones. Consumers now use a variety of               120
         devices to consume TV content in a non-linear manner. For
         example, users in the UK are employing an increasingly wide             100
         variety of devices to access the BBC’s iPlayer TV catch-up               80
         service (see Figure 13).




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                                                                            l
                                                                            i
        The European Commission believes that convergence can
         play a role in re-distributing UHF spectrum in Europe,                   40
         cognisant of increased use of smartphones and tablet PCs                 20
         for video streaming. Alternative means of distribution of TV
         content include:                                                           0
                                                                                                 Dec-10                      Dec-11
          −   moving to better compression (DVB-T2/T3)
          −   satellite                                                            Computers                     Virgin Media cable VoD
          −   cable                                                                Games consoles                Mobile devices
          −   IPTV                                                                 Tablets                       IPTV devices
          −   mobile TV.                                                           Other devices


      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                                                                29


       European broadcasting industry groups are opposed to the release of the
       700MHz band
        All of the major European broadcasting industry groups are opposed to the release of the 700MHz band, which could make it
         difficult to gain practical co-operation from broadcasters in reallocation of the band.
        The European Broadcast Union has stated, “The frequency band 470–790MHz should be retained for the delivery of broadcasting
         services (both linear and non linear)… This would provide certainty to broadcasters and the industry alike, and encourage further
         standardisation work and investments”. 1
        The Digital Terrestrial Television Action Group (DigiTAG) has stated, “Any further reduction in spectrum availability must mean less
         programme services or reduced quality… It becomes even more necessary for terrestrial broadcasters to highlight the importance
         of the DTT platform as the mass-audience, frequency-efficient, distribution medium”. 2
        Broadcast Networks Europe has stated, “These [DTT] services, which consumers have come to depend on, are delivered using
         the UHF radio spectrum, including the 700MHz band. This band is crucial not only to the sustained delivery of audio-visual content
         to European consumers but also to any future platform developments e.g. 3D TV”. 3
        The Association of Commercial Television in Europe has stated, “With regards to the 700 MHz band, commercial broadcasters
         warn that it is far too early to consider further spectrum reallocation as several European Member States have yet to put in place
         the necessary measures for the 800MHz band and use the spectrum which is already available to its full capacity”. 4




       1
           EBU Technical Committee (Geneva, Switzerland, 2012), Spectrum Requirements for Broadcasting Services in preparation for WRC-15. Available at http://tech.ebu.ch/docs/r/r136.pdf.
       2
           DigiTAG (Geneva, Switzerland, 2012), WRC-12: allocating terrestrial frequencies to mobile services. Available at http://www.digitag.org/WebLetters/2012/External-Feb2012.html.
       3
           Broadcast Networks Europe (Brussels, Belgium, 2012), Setting the record straight on the WRC-12 and Terrestrial Broadcasting in the context of the European Radio Spectrum Policy Program.
           Available at http://www.broadcast-networks.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012-03-12-BNE-Policy-Paper-on-WRC12-and-the-RSPP-F.pdf.
       4
           Association of Commercial Television in Europe (Brussels, Belgium, 2012), Digital & New Media. Available at http://www.acte.be/EPUB/easnet.dll/execreq/page?
           eas:dat_im=025B45&eas:template_im=025AE9.


      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide               30




       Executive summary

       Recommendations

       Introduction

       Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1

       The challenge of harmonisation

       Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum

       Beyond the 700MHz band

       About the author and Analysys Mason




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide   31




       The challenge of harmonisation

                       The importance of harmonisation

                       ITU Region 1

                       ITU Region 2

                       ITU Region 3




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                                                                        32


       Adopting harmonised standards enables operators to reap the benefits of
       mobile technology effectively, and to offer better services to subscribers
        The success of mobile communications has relied to a large       Figure 14: Cost/benefit analysis of harmonisation of a digital dividend
         extent on harmonisation of spectrum band plans – the             sub-band for mobile communication services in the EU [Source: Analysys
                                                                          Mason for the European Commission, 2012]
         arrangement of spectrum bands into harmonised paired or
         unpaired channels. Implementation of non-harmonised, or                        60
         non-standard, band plans can create issues:
          − difficulties in regional roaming: non-harmonisation can                                                                                                                         46
            negatively affect how attractive a country is to multi-
            national companies and tourists




                                                                          EUR billion
                                                                                        40

          − border co-ordination issues: some spectrum may become
            unusable in border areas
          − lack of vendor support and interoperability:                                20
            non-harmonisation can lead to increased costs of network
            equipment (including spare parts and maintenance
            expertise) and cause issues with the availability of
            compatible handsets.
                                                                                        0
        Studies by Analysys Mason and others have shown the




                                                                                                 available in new
                                                                                             Wireless broadband

                                                                                                  member states




                                                                                                                                                                           DTT frequency
                                                                                                                    of the sub-band




                                                                                                                                                                              replanning
                                                                                                                                                      More certainty for
                                                                                                                                                        manufacturers




                                                                                                                                                                                            Benefits – costs
                                                                                                                                              scale
                                                                                                                                       economies of
                                                                                                                    No sterilisation


                                                                                                                                          Improved
         value of harmonisation (and the cost of fragmentation). For
         example, Figure 14 shows that the benefits of harmonising
         the 800MHz digital dividend band across the European
         Union far outweigh the costs that would be incurred for the
         necessary replanning of DTT frequencies. In total, we
         estimated that the endeavour was worth about EUR46 billion
         to the European economy.                                                                                            Benefits                                      Costs           Total



      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                            33



       Spectrum harmonisation is always a challenge

       Figure 15: The challenges and benefits of harmonisation [Source: Analysys    Ensuring spectrum harmonisation and co-ordination of
       Mason, 2012]                                                                  frequency use between countries and regions is one of the
                                                                                     key objectives of spectrum policy makers. Only the largest
                                                                                     self-supporting economies, such as China, Japan and the
                                                                                     USA, can act alone on spectrum policy. For most other
                                                                                     countries, spectrum harmonisation, although difficult, is
                                                                                     necessary.
                                                                                    It is not sufficient simply to release more spectrum, since it
                                                                                     must be the right kind for a given service or technology, must
                                                       Economies of
                                                                                     allow a wide supply of network equipment and devices and
                        Slow                              scale                      must allow a country or region to maximise the socio-
                                                                                     economic benefits of spectrum use, such as: economies of
                                                                                     scale, interoperability, international roaming and interference
                 Insensitive to                      Interoperability                reduction.
                    planning                                                        The biggest challenges of harmonisation are that it can be a
                peculiarities of
                                                                                     slow process and that it is insensitive to the specific needs of
                   individual                                                        different countries.
                   countries                            Roaming
                                                                                    However, these challenges must be confronted, as the
                                                                                     greatest negative consequences of non-harmonisation affect
                                                                                     consumers that are most sensitive to price.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                          34


       Harmonisation of the 700MHz band will be one of the most important
       agenda items under consideration at WRC-15 and is particularly fraught
        There is an opportunity for multi-regional harmonisation of      Figure 16: Truncated list of bands harmonised by the 3GPP for LTE [Source:
                                                                          Analysys Mason, 2012]
         use of the 700MHz band for LTE, for which potentially there
         is a large addressable market, with associated economies of      Band               Uplink             Downlink           Duplex mode
         scale. With current radio-frequency technology, the number
                                                                          1                  1920–1980MHz       2110–2170MHz       FDD
         of bands that any device can accommodate is limited and
         there are already more than 30 LTE bands designated by the       2                  1850–1910MHz       1930–1990MHz       FDD
         3GPP. This creates an environment in which research and
                                                                          3                  1710–1785MHz       1805–1880MHz       FDD
         development effort becomes focused on certain bands.
         Bands that are harmonised across many countries and              4                  1710–1755MHz       2110–2155MHz       FDD
         regions will get strong vendor support and benefit the most
                                                                          5                  824–849MHz         869–894MHz         FDD
         from economies of scale.
                                                                          6                  830–840MHz         875–885MHz         FDD
        The sub-regions of ITU Region 1 (that is, Europe, and the
         Middle East and Africa) could devise 700MHz band plans           7                  2500–2570MHz       2620–2690MHz       FDD
         that are incompatible with those used elsewhere in the world,
                                                                          8                  880–915MHz         925–960MHz         FDD
         which would create a niche environment in which countries
         that employ it become isolated, lose vendor support and are      9                  1749.9–1784.9MHz 1844.9–1879.9MHz FDD
         cut off from mainstream investment. The following                10                 1710–1770MHz       2110–2170MHz       FDD
         organisations will put forward proposals before WRC-15 for
         different band plans in Region 1: the ATU, the Arab              11                 1427.9–1452.9MHz 1475.9–1500.9Mhz     FDD
         Spectrum Management Group (ASMG) and the European                13                 777–787MHz         746–756MHz         FDD
         Conference of Postal and Telecommunications
         Administrations (CEPT).                                          …                  …                  …                  …

        Alternative and incompatible band plans are already in place     43                 3600–3800MHz       3600–3800MHz       TDD
         in ITU Region 2 (Canada and the USA) and ITU Region 3
         (Asia–Pacific).

      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                 35


       Several organisations will liaise with NRAs and other spectrum bodies in
       an attempt to achieve regional, and worldwide, harmonisation
       Figure 17: World regions and associated spectrum management organisations [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]




                                                                       CEPT




                                                                                  ASMG
                                                                                                                  APT
                                CITEL
                                                                          ATU



                                                                       Key
                                                                               ITU Region 1
                                                                               ITU Region 2
                                                                               ITU Region 3


      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide   36




       The challenge of harmonisation

                       The importance of harmonisation

                       ITU Region 1

                       ITU Region 2

                       ITU Region 3




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                     37


       Views on the 700MHz band are starting to form in some countries of
       Western Europe
        In 2011, Finland reached a much-sought-after agreement with the Russian authorities to use spectrum in the 800MHz band, a
         band that had previously been used by Russian military aviation. The Finnish authorities strongly believe in the value of freeing up
         spectrum for mobile use. The country is keen to clear DTT from the 700MHz spectrum.
        In France, the operator SFR has been one of the European operators active in the push for the reallocation of the 700MHz band.
         The Chief Frequency Officer of SFR has recently stated that he would like to see the whole DTT band cleared.
        In the UK, the regulator, Ofcom, has issued a consultation on future use of the 700MHz band. The consultation proposes that the
         700MHz band be released for mobile use in the UK from around 2018, subject to the necessary replanning of DTT services. It is
         also proposed that spectrum in the 600MHz range – originally part of the UK’s ‘digital dividend’ created from the switch-off of
         analogue TV services – might be made available for DTT use, rather than being auctioned. This would provide replacement
         spectrum for DTT, if the 700MHz band is used for mobile services. However, this would require significant replanning of DTT
         frequencies, not just in the UK, but across Europe.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                       38


       An allocation for aeronautical navigation services in the 700MHz and
       800MHz bands poses problems in some countries in the east of Region 1
       Figure 18: ITU RR No. 5.312 aeronautical navigation band for some countries in the east of ITU Region 1 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]



                                                    UHF DTT band                                                 700MHz band                    800MHz band
                                                         228MHz                                                      92MHz                         72MHz


            470MHz                                         698                                   790             862MHz


                                                    UHF DTT band                                        ITU RR No. 5.312 aeronautical radio navigation band
                                                         175MHz
                                                                                                                                217MHz


            470MHz                                        645                                          862 MHz


        ITU Radio Regulation No. 5.312 designates an additional allocation for aeronautical radio navigation service on a primary basis in
         645–862MHz in the following countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary,
         Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
         Ukraine and Uzbekistan. However, this allocation is protected only until June 2015.
        Furthermore, the European Common Frequency Allocation Table (ECA), contained in the ERC Report 25, allocates the frequency
         band 862–960MHz to primary mobile service with a secondary allocation to aeronautical radio navigation in the sub-band
         890–942MHz (although this band has been used for GSM/UMTS in the majority of European countries for some time now).
        The CEPT has urged CEPT Administrations to take all practical steps to clear the band 645–960MHz of assignments for
         aeronautical radio navigation services and this is beginning to happen. Russia has already awarded licences in the 800MHz band
         (July 2012), and the following countries have announced plans to auction 800MHz licences: Romania (the fourth quarter of 2012),
         Slovakia (2012), and Poland (2015).


      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                 39


       Europe will face many challenges if it aims to harmonise its 700MHz band
       plan with those of other regions
       Figure 19: Digital dividend band plans in Asia–Pacific, Europe, and Canada and the USA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]


         698MHz                                                      790MHz                  806MHz                                               862MHz

                                                                                                                  800MHz band



                                         Europe (Region 1)                                     Downlink                                Uplink

                                                                                791                                   821 832                           862

                                                                                                                Possible ‘lost spectrum’ caused by overlap
                                           700MHz band




                Uplink                                            Downlink                                       Asia–Pacific (Region 3)

          703                              748       758                               803


            Uplink            Downlink        Downlink                 Uplink                                    USA and Canada (Region 2)

         698         716                    746     758             776     788


      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                   40


       The UAE was the first country in Region 1 to publish its intended plan for
       the 700MHz band
       Figure 20: Proposed 700MHz band plans, the UAE and the UK [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]




                                      LTE FDD uplink                  Gap                   LTE FDD downlink
                                          30MHz                      25MHz                        30MHz



            694MHz        703                             733                       758                        788 790MHz


                                                                         DTT                                                LTE800
                                                                                                                            2×30MHz




        Regulatory authorities in ITU Region 1 are beginning to consider how to resolve the issue of the overlap between the APT 700MHz
         band plan and the European 800MHz plan.
        The regulator in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA), is the first in Region 1 to
         put forward its intended 700MHz band plan. The TRA announced in a consultation document published in May 2012 that it intends
         to use both the 700MHz and 800MHz bands for mobile in the UAE. It intends to use the 2×30MHz frequency plan shown in Figure
         20, which it developed unilaterally, and which is a modified version of the APT’s band plan.
        The band plan’s close alignment with that of the APT is an important benefit for equipment manufacturers; in particular, the duplex
         gap, though slightly larger in the UAE’s plan, overlaps with that in the APT plan, and maintains the same 55MHz duplex spacing.
        The TRA is working with broadcasters to clear the 700MHz band and make it available for mobile by WRC-15 or before.



      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                41


       Russia is the only Region 1 country to have already awarded spectrum in
       the 700MHz band, which could lead to incompatibilities with other plans
       Figure 21: The APT 700MHz band plan and the position of licences awarded in Russia in the 700MHz band [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]


                                                                                     10MHz
                                             FDD uplink                              duplex                          FDD downlink
                                                 45MHz                                                                    45MHz
                                                                                      gap
             698MHz 703                                                        748            758                                                   803 806


                                                     FDD uplink                                                   FDD downlink
                                                         30MHz                                                         30MHz


                                  720MHz                                         750            761                                           791


        On 8 September 2011, Russia’s General Radio Frequency Centre (GRFC) published a consultation document that indicated which
         spectrum would be used for LTE services and the timeline for a spectrum auction. The auction conditions included provisions that
         the winners of licences in the790–862MHz (800MHz) band should also be awarded spectrum in the 2500–2690MHz band and the
         720–750MHz or 761–791MHz (700MHz) band, in accordance with the relative size of the lots awarded to each operator in the
         800MHz band.
        The GRFC had earmarked this spectrum for wireless communication about six months before the band was suggested for mobile
         use in Region 1 at WRC-12. The significance of this is that the band is not harmonised with the ITU Region 3 700MHz band plan –
         the uplink allotments overlap and the duplex gap is 1MHz larger in the Russian scheme.
        As a result, Russian operators may not be able to take immediate advantage of the economies of scale afforded by harmonisation
         of that particular band. Furthermore, CEPT may recommend a band plan for Europe that does not align with the spectrum lots
         allocated in Russia. The band plan in the Middle East and Africa will most likely align with the band plans pursued in Europe or
         Asia, so Russian operators will have difficulty sourcing devices for the band.


      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                       42



       Africa is also discussing alternative plans for the 700MHz band

       Figure 22: Proposed 700MHz band plans for MEA and the APT 700MHz band plan [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]


                                                                                 DTT                                                   LTE800 FDD downlink
                                                                                                                                                 30MHz

                                                                                                                                  791MHz

                                        LTE FDD uplink                        Gap                     LTE FDD downlink
                                            30MHz                             25MHz                        30MHz

                  694MHz         703                            733                             758                           788 790MHz

                      PPDR                                                            PPDR
                                        LTE FDD uplink                Gap                             LTE FDD downlink
                      uplink?               30MHz                     15MHz
                                                                                    downlink?              30MHz
                       10MHz                                                          10MHz
                  693MHz        703                             733            748            758                             788MHz
       Proposed




                            5MHz              LTE FDD uplink                      5MHz 5MHz                      FDD uplink
                                                                                                            LTE FDD downlink
                                                    45MHz                                                          45MHz
                                                                                                                      45MHz

                       698MHz 703                                              748     753      758                                    803MHz

                                                                                                                                                   PPDR
                    PPDR uplink                LTE FDD uplink                         Gap                  LTE FDD downlink
                       10MHz                        45MHz                             10MHz                        45MHz
                                                                                                                                                  downlink
                                                                                                                                                   10MHz
                  693MHz        703                                             748           758                                          803       813MHz


                                              LTE FDD uplink                          Gap                  LTE FDD downlink
                                                    45MHz                             10MHz                        45MHz

                           698MHz 703                                           748           758                                          803 806MHz




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide   43




       The challenge of harmonisation

                       The importance of harmonisation

                       ITU Region 1

                       ITU Region 2

                       ITU Region 3




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide                                                                                                          44



       The USA’s 700MHz band plan is unlikely to be adopted widely elsewhere

       Figure 23: The USA’s 700MHz band plan [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]


                       698MHz                            Unpaired                                                                                                              806MHz

                                                                                                                  BB             NB                              BB          NB
                             A         B        C        D      E        A       B        C          C          10 MHz
                                                                                                                                 6MHz            C             10 MHz
                                                                                                                                                                             6MHz
                            6MHz      6MHz     6MHz                    6MHz     6MHz     6MHz       11MHz                        uplink        11MHz                         uplink
                                                        6MHz   6MHz                                             downlink                                       downlink
                            uplink    uplink   uplink                 downlink downlink downlink   downlink                     Public        downlink                       Public
                                                                                                              Public safety                                  Public safety
                                                                                                                                safety                                       safety



                                                                                                                        The upper 700MHz band
                                               The lower 700MHz band

                                                                                                                           1MHz guard bands, auctioned for commercial use


        In the USA, terrestrial TV broadcasting had switched fully from analogue to digital transmission by February 2009, and licences in
         the 700MHz band were auctioned in January 2008.
        The US 700MHz band is formed from two sub-bands: the upper and lower. Each sub-band has its own plan. Unfortunately, two
         non-interoperable classes of device have emerged that operate in the lower 700MHz band. This development was unexpected,
         and raises concerns about the generation of a vibrant device ecosystem. To date, this lack of interoperability has made it difficult
         for operators to obtain mobile broadband devices.
        The US band plan follows a 6MHz channelisation scheme intended to ensure compatibility with the previous use of the band for
         broadcasting. However, LTE is based on a bandwidth of 5MHz, so channels of 6MHz present a challenge in terms of optimising
         spectrum efficiency.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide            45


       Only one of the USA’s closest neighbours has adopted its plan for the
       700MHz band
       Canada                                                             Mexico

        In the past, because of its proximity to the US market,
         Canada has often adopted spectrum allocations and band
         plans harmonised with those of the USA.
        Industry Canada proposed a number of band plan options,
         many of which were modified versions of the US band plan,
         but using 5MHz or 10MHz channels, rather than the US’s
         6MHz channels. It has finally concluded that harmonisation
         with the US band plan should be broadly adopted, but chose
         to make slight adjustments in the upper 700MHz band.




      © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
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700MHz spectrum

  • 1. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide Research Report The 700MHz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide September 2012 Morgan Mullooly © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 2. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 2 Contents Slide no. Slide no. 5. Executive summary 21. Use of terrestrial TV is limited in some parts of MEA 6. Executive summary 22. MEA is at an early stage of the DSO, so is in a good position to take 7. Recommendations advantage of advances in DTT technology 8. Recommendations 23. Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1 – Europe 9. Introduction 24. In Europe, more sub-1GHz mobile spectrum is needed, but releasing 10. Satisfying demand for spectrum is becoming increasingly difficult 700MHz is problematic 11. A key challenge for policy makers is to determine the most 25. More spectrum is needed in Europe because of the increasing demand socio-economically advantageous spectrum assignments for mobile data 12. Sub-1GHz spectrum like the 700MHz and 800MHz bands is particularly 26. Some countries in Europe have yet to issue licences for the 800MHz suitable for mobile communications band 13. Changes to international frequency allocations are made at the ITU’s 27. European regulators recognise the international importance of the World Radiocommunication Conferences 700MHz band, but are wary of problems with its release 14. At WRC-07, it was decided to create co-primary allocations between 28. In Europe, it has been suggested that convergence may help mobile and broadcasting at the top of the UHF band broadcasters to vacate the 700MHz band 15. At WRC-12, it was agreed to allocate 700MHz spectrum for mobile use 29. European broadcasting industry groups are opposed to the release of in Region 1, in order to align it with Regions 2 and 3 the 700MHz band 16. Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU 30. The challenge of harmonisation Region 1 31. The challenge of harmonisation – The importance of 17. Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU harmonisation Region 1 – The Middle East and Africa 32. Adopting harmonised standards enables operators to reap the benefits 18. Many factors drive the need for 700MHz spectrum to be made available of mobile technology effectively, and to offer better services to for mobile use in MEA subscribers 19. Some countries in MEA already use some of the 800MHz band for 33. Spectrum harmonisation is always a challenge cellular services 34. Harmonisation of the 700MHz band will be one of the most important 20. Mobile networks are important for the delivery of broadband services in agenda items under consideration at WRC-15 and is particularly fraught Africa and the Middle East 35. Several organisations will liaise with NRAs and other spectrum bodies in an attempt to achieve regional, and worldwide, harmonisation © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 3. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 3 Contents Slide no. Slide no. 36. The challenge of harmonisation – ITU Region 1 51. South Korea has aligned 2×20MHz in the 700MHz band with the APT 37. Views on the 700MHz band are starting to form in some countries of 700MHz band plan, and further harmonisation may follow Western Europe 52. Japan’s 700MHz band plan is compatible with that of the APT 38. An allocation for aeronautical navigation services in the 700MHz and 53. China is contemplating the use of the TDD band plan, while uncertainty 800MHz bands poses problems in some countries in the east of Region surrounds Malaysia’s plans for the 700MHz band 1 54. Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum 39. Europe will face many challenges if it aims to harmonise its 700MHz 55. Several other wireless industry stakeholders may influence plans for band plan with those of other regions future use of the 700MHz band 40. The UAE was the first country in Region 1 to publish its intended plan 56. The PMSE industry strongly advocates that the 700MHz band should be for the 700MHz band retained for DTT use 41. Russia is the only Region 1 country to have already awarded spectrum 57. An ITU mandate assigns more spectrum for PPDR in the 700MHz band, which could lead to incompatibilities with other 58. ‘White space’ refers to UHF spectrum not used for DTT at specific plans geographical locations 42. Africa is also discussing alternative plans for the 700MHz band 59. Japan has allocated 10MHz in the 700MHz band for ITS 43. The challenge of harmonisation – ITU Region 2 60. L-DTPS: local digital TV programming service 44. The USA’s 700MHz band plan is unlikely to be adopted widely 61. Beyond the 700MHz band elsewhere 62. Spectrum bands below 700MHz could be assigned for mobile use, but it 45. Only one of the USA’s closest neighbours has adopted its plan for the is highly unlikely 700MHz band 63. Incentive auctions could release some spectrum for mobile in the 46. In the Caribbean, the proposal to implement a non-standard 700MHz 600MHz band in the USA, while the UK is reviewing policy band plan has delayed the roll-out of LTE in some countries 64. About the author and Analysys Mason 47. It is not too late for ECTEL to discard its original 700MHz band plan 65. About the author 48. Elsewhere in ITU Region 2, digital migration has been slow and there is no clear indication which band plan will be adopted 66. About Analysys Mason 49. The challenge of harmonisation: ITU Region 3 67. Research from Analysys Mason 50. The APT’s paired 700MHz band plan has been accepted as 68. Consulting from Analysys Mason standardised by the 3GPP © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 4. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 4 List of figures Figure 1: Wireless data traffic, worldwide, 2011–2017 Figure 21: The APT 700MHz band plan and the position of licences awarded Figure 2: Propagation characteristics of various 3GPP bands in Russia in the 700MHz band Figure 3: Notable assignments of spectrum by the ITU for mobile in Region Figure 22: Proposed 700MHz band plans for MEA and the APT 700MHz 1 band plan Figure 4: Drivers for release of 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in MEA Figure 23: The USA’s 700MHz band plan Figure 5: Digital dividends in Europe and MEA Figure 24: ECTEL’s 700MHz band plan and the US FCC 700MHz band plan Figure 6: Fixed broadband penetration as a percentage of households, Figure 25: Analogue switch-off targets for selected countries in Latin Africa, 2011 America Figure 7: Proportion of households that have a least one TV, Africa, July Figure 26: The APT’s 700MHz band plans 2012 Figure 27: The APT’s FDD 700MHz (3GPP Band 28) and South Korea’s Figure 8: ITU’s recommended timetable for DSO in MEA 700MHz band plans Figure 9: Drivers for release of 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in Europe Figure 28: The APT’s FDD 700MHz (3GPP Band 28) and Japan’s 700MHz band plans Figure 10: Wireless data traffic, Europe, 2011–2017 Figure 29: Summary of non-telecoms stakeholders in discussions about the Figure 11: Status of analogue switch-off in European countries, September 700MHz band 2012 Figure 30: Potential applications of UHF white space Figure 12: Status of the DTT platform in European countries, September 2012 Figure 31: Japan’s 700MHz band plan Figure 13: BBC iPlayer requests by device type, UK, December 2010 and Figure 32: The correlation between device size and spectrum band December 2011 Figure 14: Cost/benefit analysis of harmonisation of a digital dividend sub-band for mobile communication services in the EU Figure 15: The challenges and benefits of harmonisation Figure 16: Truncated list of bands harmonised by the 3GPP for LTE Figure 17: World regions and associated spectrum management organisations Figure 18: ITU RR No. 5.312 aeronautical navigation band for some countries in the east of ITU Region 1 Figure 19: Digital dividend band plans in Asia–Pacific, Europe, and Canada and the USA © Analysys Mason Limited 2012 Figure 20: Proposed 700MHz band plans, the UAE and the UK
  • 5. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 5 Executive summary Recommendations Introduction Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1 The challenge of harmonisation Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum Beyond the 700MHz band About the author and Analysys Mason © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 6. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 6 Executive summary  The 700MHz band refers to a range of frequencies between 700MHz and 800MHz. This spectrum was used worldwide for broadcasting TV, but has now been allocated to mobile services in ITU Region 2 (the Americas) and ITU Region 3 (Asia–Pacific). It is one of the most commercially interesting bands being made available to mobile network operators (MNOs). Already, in countries such as Japan and the USA, subscribers are enjoying the additional coverage and capacity made possible by this spectrum.  The impending reallocation of the 700MHz band to mobile services, on a co-primary basis with broadcasting, in ITU Region 1 creates an opportunity for multi-regional harmonisation of the use of the 700MHz band for LTE, for which there is a potentially large addressable market, with associated economies of scale.  The Asia–Pacific Telecommunity’s (APT’s) 700MHz band plan (or 3GPP Band 28) has been well received in ITU Region 3 and has been adopted, or is planned to be adopted, by several countries in Asia–Pacific. Countries in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) that have not aligned with the European 800MHz band plan (which overlaps with the APT 700MHz band plan), may align their 700MHz band plans with the 3GPP Band 28. Similarly, it is likely that countries in the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) will align with the APT 700MHz plan.  In Europe, where the 700MHz band has not yet been allocated to mobile services, broadcasting industry groups are opposed to any reallocation of the band. However, it has been suggested that the process of removing broadcasters from the 700MHz band will become easier as consumers increasingly view video content on a wider range of devices using a greater variety of services, and the importance of traditional linear TV diminishes.  Several wireless industry stakeholders may influence plans for use of the 700MHz band. These include stakeholders for programme making and special events (PMSE), public protection and disaster relief (PPDR), machine-to-machine (M2M) services and other communications in white space, intelligent transport systems (ITS), and local-digital TV programming services (L-DTPS).  Spectrum bands below 700MHz could be assigned for mobile use, but this is unlikely. It becomes increasingly difficult to use frequencies below 700MHz for mobile services because of the need for larger antennas to account for greater levels of RF noise. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 7. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 7 Executive summary Recommendations Introduction Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1 The challenge of harmonisation Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum Beyond the 700MHz band About the author and Analysys Mason © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 8. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 8 Recommendations  National regulatory authorities (NRAs) must embrace harmonisation. Good spectrum management involves releasing more spectrum, but of a kind that allows a country or region to benefit from economies of scale, interoperability, international roaming and interference reduction. Regulators will have to work together to ensure that their plans will not conflict with those of their neighbours.  Regulators should consult on their band plan intentions as soon as possible. This will allow the wireless and broadcast industries to plan their spectrum policies accordingly.  Regulators should engage with wireless industry stakeholders on the future of the 700MHz band. The group that is lobbying for the 700MHz band to be allocated to mobile is particularly strong, but other stakeholders have interests in the band. Regulators should engage with all stakeholders before making a decision on allocation of the band.  Digital terrestrial TV (DTT) broadcasters should begin feasibility studies on technology upgrades that allow new services to be accommodated in less spectrum. The broadcasting community must examine technological innovations, such as DVB-T2 and single-frequency networks (SFNs), and be prepared to implement them. Such techniques may increase spectrum efficiency and enable DTT platforms to provide more high-definition (HD) services, which would make DTT services more attractive to consumers.  DTT broadcasters, regulators and policy makers should critically assess the role of public service broadcasting and the terrestrial broadcasting platform. Terrestrial transmission continues to be the primary platform for TV distribution in many countries, but other options are available. Cable, satellite, IPTV and mobile TV platforms could all conceivably support HD digital TV.  Device vendors should consider the implications of adopting particular band plans. In the USA, two non-interoperable classes of device use the lower 700MHz band. This was an unanticipated development, and raises concerns about the development of a vibrant device ecosystem. Regulators, supported by MNOs, must be proactive in assessing this risk or they may create a situation in which it is difficult for operators to obtain mobile broadband devices. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 9. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 9 Executive summary Recommendations Introduction Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1 The challenge of harmonisation Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum Beyond the 700MHz band About the author and Analysys Mason © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 10. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 10 Satisfying demand for spectrum is becoming increasingly difficult Figure 1: Wireless data traffic, worldwide, 2011–2017 [Source: Analysys  Global demand for mobile data is growing rapidly. Analysys Mason, 2012] Mason forecasts that the volume of mobile data traffic carried over a cellular network will grow at a CAGR of 40.8% 4000 worldwide from 2011 to 2016 (excluding Wi-Fi offload traffic).1 Demand for more mobile data generates demand for 3500 more spectrum with which to deliver greater capacity and drive faster throughput. However, satisfying spectrum demand is becoming increasingly difficult. 3000  In order for more spectrum to be made available for mobile broadband use: 2500 − licensees may be required to use spectrum more efficiently so that some can be released, which may 2000 present a problem, if it causes devices to need modification 1500 − spectrum may be re-allocated from one use to another, which may be time consuming and be resisted by the m B P T h n o e p a c ) ( r t f i 1000 incumbent spectrum user.  The number of stakeholders seeking more radio spectrum 500 makes it increasingly complex either to reassign spectrum (to allow a different communication application to be used in a band) or to refarm it (to allow the use of an alternative 0 transmission or modulation standard in a band). 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 See Analysys Mason’s Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2012– 2017. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 11. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 11 A key challenge for policy makers is to determine the most socio-economically advantageous spectrum assignments  Spectrum planners are faced with competing demands from users for a multitude of purposes, including: − mobile voice and broadband − public protection and disaster relief − broadcast TV − machine-to-machine (M2M) − programme making and special events − radio astronomy − military and defence − radar and aeronautical.  The role of the spectrum policy makers is to try to accommodate these conflicting demands. One key input in this process is to assess how socio-economically advantageous each of the competing uses is. This is no easy task. For example, assigning more spectrum to MNOs may have the greatest macro-economic impact, but this must be weighed against the more-intangible social value of allocating spectrum to the public sector or to public service broadcasting. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 12. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 12 Sub-1GHz spectrum like the 700MHz and 800MHz bands is particularly suitable for mobile communications Figure 2: Propagation characteristics of various 3GPP bands [Source:  Sub-1GHz spectrum is particularly valuable because it Analysys Mason, 2012] propagates further and penetrates buildings better than higher frequencies. It is, therefore, ideal for deploying wide-area mobile coverage relatively quickly, including for 800MHz in-building use. 5.6km2  Mobile operators also have access to bands above 1GHz, including 1800MHz, 2100MHz, 2300MHz and 2600MHz. 900MHz These are suitable for delivering very high data speeds in 4.8km2 areas where capacity is particularly constrained. 1800MHz 1.7km2 2100MHz 1km2 2600MHz 0.6km2 © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 13. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 13 Changes to international frequency allocations are made at the ITU’s World Radiocommunication Conferences Figure 3: Notable assignments of spectrum by the ITU for mobile in Region 1 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] WARC-791 WARC-921 WRC-00 WRC-07 WRC-15 900MHz 1800MHz 2600MHz 800MHz 700MHz 2100MHz IMT-2000 IMT-2000 GSM IMT-2000 IMT-2000 IMT-Advanced IMT-Advanced  The aim of the World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC) is to make decisions regarding allocation of radio-frequency spectrum, which are documented in an international frequency allocation table and in associated WRC resolutions. The challenge is to identify how much spectrum is needed for various wireless services, to identify candidate bands and to examine if and how different services can share these.  At the end of each WRC, an agenda is set for the next conference, providing a roadmap for the development of wireless communications in the next four or five years.  Figure 3 shows some of the main decisions relevant to mobile frequency allocation in ITU Region 1 taken by past WRCs, beginning with the GSM allocation in 1979, which was arguably the catalyst for the global mobile revolution that began in the early 1990s. 1 WARC = World Administrative Radio Conference, renamed as the World Radiocommunication Conference in 1993. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 14. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 14 At WRC-07, it was decided to create co-primary allocations between mobile and broadcasting at the top of the UHF band  WRC-07 decided to allocate the 700MHz and 800MHz bands on a regional level to mobile communications, for use by IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced systems, as follows: − 790–862MHz (the 800MHz band) in ITU Region 1 (Africa, Europe and the Middle East) − 698–806MHz (the 700MHz band) in ITU Regions 2 and 3.  The discrepancy in bandwidth allocation between the regions was the result of established uses of the UHF band. − The Geneva agreement of 2006 (GE06) for countries in ITU Region 1 planned the transition to digital TV broadcasting in VHF spectrum (174–230MHz) and UHF spectrum (originally 470–862MHz). By WRC-07, implementation of DTT was well underway in many European countries, which intended 790–862MHz to be their ‘digital dividend’. − In other regions, 2G cellular systems already used spectrum in a different part of the 800MHz band (for example, CDMA850) and so additional spectrum was identified in the 698–790MHz band for future use. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 15. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 15 At WRC-12, it was agreed to allocate 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in Region 1, in order to align it with Regions 2 and 3  WRC-12 agreed a provisional resolution to co-allocate spectrum between mobile and broadcasting in the 694–790MHz band (the 700MHz band) in ITU Region 1, to be ratified at WRC-15. This resolution was unusual because the allocation of this band was not on the agenda and came about as a result of lobbying by delegates from MEA, who stressed the importance of the 700MHz band for deployment of wireless broadband services in their regions; it is expected that this extra spectrum can help to bridge the gap between emerging and developed markets in terms of wireless broadband availability.  WRC-15 will specify the technical and regulatory conditions, channelling and other arrangements, including regional and global harmonisation, for the 700MHz band, as mandated by the following Agenda Items set at WRC-12. − Agenda Item 1.1: ‘To consider additional spectrum allocations to the mobile service on a primary basis and identification of additional frequency bands for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) and related regulatory provisions, to facilitate the development of terrestrial mobile broadband applications …’ This means that the ITU will consider reallocation of a number of bands to mobile at WRC-15. − Agenda Item 1.2: “To examine the results of ITU-R studies… on the use of the frequency band 694–790 MHz by the mobile, except aeronautical mobile, service in Region 1 and take the appropriate measures …”.  In preparation for WRC-15, studies began in July 2012 on the use by mobile of the spectrum in the 698–862MHz range (spanning established 700MHz and 800MHz bands) by the ITU-R in a Joint Task Group (JTG 4-5-6-7). The group’s remit is to draft ITU-R recommendations and reports about the technical viability of allocating the 700MHz band to mobile and broadcast on a co-primary basis.  Spectrum in the 700MHz band could be made available by regulators in the MEA before 2015, but it is not expected to be available in Europe until around 2022–2023 because of the complexity of moving DTT from this band. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 16. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 16 Executive summary Recommendations Introduction Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1 The challenge of harmonisation Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum Beyond the 700MHz band About the author and Analysys Mason © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 17. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 17 Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1 The Middle East and Africa Europe © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 18. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 18 Many factors drive the need for 700MHz spectrum to be made available for mobile use in MEA Figure 4: Drivers for release of 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in MEA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] 1. Insufficient sub-1GHz spectrum 1. Insufficient sub-1GHz spectrum Several countries in MEA use 850MHz for cellular services and so cannot make the Several countries in MEA use 850MHz for cellular services and so cannot make the 800MHz band available as it is configured in Europe. 800MHz band available as it is configured in Europe. 2. Development policy perspective 2. Development policy perspective There is a recognisable need Mobile broadband is of great importance to developments in both regions. Mobile broadband is of great importance to developments in both regions. to release sub-1GHz spectrum in MEA 3. Limited use of terrestrial TV 3. Limited use of terrestrial TV Terrestrial broadcasting is of relatively little importance, compared with other TV platforms, Terrestrial broadcasting is of relatively little importance, compared with other TV platforms, in several countries in the region, while in others it is used, but provides in several countries in the region, while in others it is used, but provides only a few channels. only a few channels. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 19. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 19 Some countries in MEA already use some of the 800MHz band for cellular services Figure 5: Digital dividends in Europe and MEA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] 790MHz 862MHz 800MHz band digital dividend TV broadcasting band 2×30MHz Downlink 30MHz Uplink 30MHz Digital TV broadcasting band dividend CDMA850 16MHz 790MHz 806MHz  A chief reason for interest in 700MHz spectrum is that many countries in MEA are unable to make the 800MHz band available because they use the 850MHz band for CDMA/LTE850.  Many regulators in MEA have licensed spectrum above 806MHz and operators have deployed CDMA networks in the 806– 890MHz band, which they are likely to refarm in order to use LTE.  Furthermore, in countries in the region that are using the 800MHz spectrum for broadcasting, the digital switchover (DSO) has not happened because of political and regulatory inertia, as well as the lack of a large terrestrial TV market to pay for the switchover. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 20. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 20 Mobile networks are important for the delivery of broadband services in Africa and the Middle East Figure 6: Fixed broadband penetration as a percentage of households,  Mobile services are extremely important for the Africa, 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] socio-economic development of Africa because the penetration of fixed broadband is very low.  Vast land masses, sparsely distributed populations, difficult terrain, low consumer purchasing power, political issues and various other factors have hindered the development of a fixed infrastructure in Africa.  In the Middle East, demand for mobile data services is growing and more spectrum is needed to accommodate this demand.  In other parts of the world, a wireless broadband ecosystem, comprising content, applications, service models and device categories, has begun to develop in the 700MHz band, and this could be exploited in MEA. 15–50% 10–15%  A vibrant wireless broadband industry can in itself be a huge 5–10% driver for economic growth and job creation. 0–5% No data © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 21. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 21 Use of terrestrial TV is limited in some parts of MEA  In Africa, terrestrial TV broadcasting does not have the same Figure 7: Proportion of households that have a least one TV, Africa, July level of take-up, or number of channels, as it does in Europe. 2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]  In several countries in the Middle East, fibre networks are well established, providing digital TV, as well as broadband services.  A large proportion of countries in MEA have fewer than three free-to-air analogue terrestrial TV channels.  Countries in MEA started planning DSO much later than those in Europe and consequently are well positioned to use newer technologies, such as DVB-T2, which offer better spectral efficiency.  In Europe, in contrast, most countries planned DSO some years ago and hence use DVB-T with multi-frequency networks (MFNs). Substantial planning would be needed to migrate to the more-recent technology option of DVB-T2 with single-frequency networks (SFNs). © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 22. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 22 MEA is at an early stage of the DSO, so is in a good position to take advantage of advances in DTT technology Figure 8: ITU’s recommended timetable for DSO in MEA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] Start of informal frequency Start of informal frequency Finalisation of national DSO Finalisation of national DSO Target start of the analogue switch-off Target start of the analogue switch-off co-ordination activities co-ordination activities and digital dividend allocation plans and digital dividend allocation plans in the region in the region Adoption of a common Adoption of a common Initial digital terrestrial transmission Initial digital terrestrial transmission Target completion of analogue switch-off Target completion of analogue switch-off digital TV standard digital TV standard target for the region target for the region in the region in the region 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 3Q 2015  The African Telecommunications Union (ATU) has developed a roadmap for digital migration, covering frequency co-ordination, adoption of standards and transition timelines, which complies with the ITU’s 2015 deadline for analogue switch-off (ASO). Only nine of 54 countries have launched DTT (Algeria, Gabon, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Tunisia and Uganda).  Many countries in MEA are only now starting to plan a DSO, and this late planning may be turned to their advantage. African countries are now well placed to take advantage of advances in the DTT standards by using DVB-T2, which achieves better capacity (and use of SFNs) than its predecessor, DVB-T, which is widely used in Europe. Alternatively, countries with poor terrestrial transmission infrastructure could consider adopting satellite as their free-to-air solution. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 23. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 23 Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1 The Middle East and Africa Europe © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 24. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 24 In Europe, more sub-1GHz mobile spectrum is needed, but releasing 700MHz is problematic Figure 9: Drivers for release of 700MHz spectrum for mobile use in Europe [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] In Europe, the recognised need for more sub-1GHz spectrum is coupled with the complexity of implementation © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 25. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 25 More spectrum is needed in Europe because of the increasing demand for mobile data  In Europe, MNOs have made strong calls for more spectrum Figure 10: Wireless data traffic, Europe, 2011–2017 [Source: Analysys in response to the demand for mobile data. Mason, 2012]  Estimates suggest that wireless data traffic will continue to 700 grow steadily in the region during the next five years, although usage is beginning to level off in some countries. 1 600  Despite the increasing use by operators of Wi-Fi to offload traffic, more licensed spectrum is expected to be required.  The release of the 700MHz band for Europe is recognised in 500 the objectives of the European Union’s (EU’s) Radio Spectrum Policy Programme (RSPP), which was adopted by the European Parliament in February 2012 and which draws 400 very heavily on the EU’s Digital Agenda targets.  A target has been set to identify 1200MHz of spectrum that 300 can be allocated for mobile communication. Around 800MHz is currently available, leaving around 400MHz of additional m B P T h n o e p a c ) ( r 200 t f i spectrum to be found; the release of over 60MHz in the 700MHz band would go some way to achieving this target.  Sub-1GHz spectrum is excellent in terms of mobile 100 coverage, but European MNOs face capacity challenges and for them, use of supra-1GHz spectrum may be a more appropriate solution. 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 See Analysys Mason’s Wireless network traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis 2012– 2017. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 26. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 26 Some countries in Europe have yet to issue licences for the 800MHz band  European regulators recognise the importance and potential Figure 11: Status of analogue switch-off in European countries, September of the 700MHz band, in terms of the global economies of 2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] scale that may be realised by its use, but are wary of the difficulties that will be encountered in freeing it up.  Furthermore, discussions about release of more sub-1GHz spectrum in the 700MHz band in Europe may seem premature, given the fact that some countries have yet to issue licences for use of the 800MHz band.  The ITU’s recommended deadline for ASO in the UHF band is 17 June 2015 for all ITU regions. In Europe, a target date of January 2013 has been set for ASO.  Implementation dates for ASO vary widely across Europe. In some countries, DTT has been in use for almost 15 years (the UK was the first country to launch DVB-T, in 1997).  However, some countries are in a period of simulcast of analogue and digital, which has been extended for much longer than was initially expected. As a result, the 800MHz band has not yet been vacated sufficiently to allow the spectrum to be awarded to mobile operators in some countries. ASO achieved ASO not yet achieved © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 27. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 27 European regulators recognise the international importance of the 700MHz band, but are wary of problems with its release Figure 12: Status of the DTT platform in European countries,  Countries using DVB-T and MFNs need to consider how September 2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] networks might be migrated to DVB-T2 and SFNs, which offer significant spectrum efficiency benefits, as well as capacity for DTT platforms to deliver all-HD content. However, replanning the 700MHz band poses several challenges, including the following. − DTT is still used as public service broadcasting platform in many parts of Europe, even though cable, satellite and online and IP-based platforms also distribute commercial broadcasting content to many homes. In France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the UK, where DTT is the primary TV distribution platform, freeing up more broadcasting spectrum poses particular challenges. − Long-term licences have been awarded to broadcasters operating in the 470–790MHz band and specific obligations are in place, such as those of household coverage for public service broadcasting (for example, coverage of more than 98.5% of the population in the UK). − Complex frequency co-ordination is needed in the planning of radio spectrum to avoid cross-border interference. Multi-country co-ordination arrangements are in place to avoid interference in border areas in Europe, DTT is main distribution platform where spectrum availability for DTT is particularly DTT is second distribution platform DTT is third or fourth distribution platform constrained. Any changes to band plans must be carefully co-ordinated with neighbouring countries. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 28. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 28 In Europe, it has been suggested that convergence may help broadcasters to vacate the 700MHz band  Policy makers must take a long-term view of the direction of Figure 13: BBC iPlayer requests by device type, UK, December 2010 and the broadcasting industry, and of how people will access TV December 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] content in the future. Some industry observers suggest that the 700MHz band may not be awarded in Europe until as 200 late as 2023. Policy makers need to consider if broadcast will 180 still be an important medium at that time. 160  Despite its importance in many countries in Europe, DTT already appears antiquated to some TV viewers – 140 particularly younger ones. Consumers now use a variety of 120 devices to consume TV content in a non-linear manner. For example, users in the UK are employing an increasingly wide 100 variety of devices to access the BBC’s iPlayer TV catch-up 80 service (see Figure 13). m 60 R n o u q e s ) ( t l i  The European Commission believes that convergence can play a role in re-distributing UHF spectrum in Europe, 40 cognisant of increased use of smartphones and tablet PCs 20 for video streaming. Alternative means of distribution of TV content include: 0 Dec-10 Dec-11 − moving to better compression (DVB-T2/T3) − satellite Computers Virgin Media cable VoD − cable Games consoles Mobile devices − IPTV Tablets IPTV devices − mobile TV. Other devices © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 29. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 29 European broadcasting industry groups are opposed to the release of the 700MHz band  All of the major European broadcasting industry groups are opposed to the release of the 700MHz band, which could make it difficult to gain practical co-operation from broadcasters in reallocation of the band.  The European Broadcast Union has stated, “The frequency band 470–790MHz should be retained for the delivery of broadcasting services (both linear and non linear)… This would provide certainty to broadcasters and the industry alike, and encourage further standardisation work and investments”. 1  The Digital Terrestrial Television Action Group (DigiTAG) has stated, “Any further reduction in spectrum availability must mean less programme services or reduced quality… It becomes even more necessary for terrestrial broadcasters to highlight the importance of the DTT platform as the mass-audience, frequency-efficient, distribution medium”. 2  Broadcast Networks Europe has stated, “These [DTT] services, which consumers have come to depend on, are delivered using the UHF radio spectrum, including the 700MHz band. This band is crucial not only to the sustained delivery of audio-visual content to European consumers but also to any future platform developments e.g. 3D TV”. 3  The Association of Commercial Television in Europe has stated, “With regards to the 700 MHz band, commercial broadcasters warn that it is far too early to consider further spectrum reallocation as several European Member States have yet to put in place the necessary measures for the 800MHz band and use the spectrum which is already available to its full capacity”. 4 1 EBU Technical Committee (Geneva, Switzerland, 2012), Spectrum Requirements for Broadcasting Services in preparation for WRC-15. Available at http://tech.ebu.ch/docs/r/r136.pdf. 2 DigiTAG (Geneva, Switzerland, 2012), WRC-12: allocating terrestrial frequencies to mobile services. Available at http://www.digitag.org/WebLetters/2012/External-Feb2012.html. 3 Broadcast Networks Europe (Brussels, Belgium, 2012), Setting the record straight on the WRC-12 and Terrestrial Broadcasting in the context of the European Radio Spectrum Policy Program. Available at http://www.broadcast-networks.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012-03-12-BNE-Policy-Paper-on-WRC12-and-the-RSPP-F.pdf. 4 Association of Commercial Television in Europe (Brussels, Belgium, 2012), Digital & New Media. Available at http://www.acte.be/EPUB/easnet.dll/execreq/page? eas:dat_im=025B45&eas:template_im=025AE9. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 30. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 30 Executive summary Recommendations Introduction Drivers for and inhibitors to the release of the 700MHz band in ITU Region 1 The challenge of harmonisation Alternative uses for 700MHz spectrum Beyond the 700MHz band About the author and Analysys Mason © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 31. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 31 The challenge of harmonisation The importance of harmonisation ITU Region 1 ITU Region 2 ITU Region 3 © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 32. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 32 Adopting harmonised standards enables operators to reap the benefits of mobile technology effectively, and to offer better services to subscribers  The success of mobile communications has relied to a large Figure 14: Cost/benefit analysis of harmonisation of a digital dividend extent on harmonisation of spectrum band plans – the sub-band for mobile communication services in the EU [Source: Analysys Mason for the European Commission, 2012] arrangement of spectrum bands into harmonised paired or unpaired channels. Implementation of non-harmonised, or 60 non-standard, band plans can create issues: − difficulties in regional roaming: non-harmonisation can 46 negatively affect how attractive a country is to multi- national companies and tourists EUR billion 40 − border co-ordination issues: some spectrum may become unusable in border areas − lack of vendor support and interoperability: 20 non-harmonisation can lead to increased costs of network equipment (including spare parts and maintenance expertise) and cause issues with the availability of compatible handsets. 0  Studies by Analysys Mason and others have shown the available in new Wireless broadband member states DTT frequency of the sub-band replanning More certainty for manufacturers Benefits – costs scale economies of No sterilisation Improved value of harmonisation (and the cost of fragmentation). For example, Figure 14 shows that the benefits of harmonising the 800MHz digital dividend band across the European Union far outweigh the costs that would be incurred for the necessary replanning of DTT frequencies. In total, we estimated that the endeavour was worth about EUR46 billion to the European economy. Benefits Costs Total © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 33. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 33 Spectrum harmonisation is always a challenge Figure 15: The challenges and benefits of harmonisation [Source: Analysys  Ensuring spectrum harmonisation and co-ordination of Mason, 2012] frequency use between countries and regions is one of the key objectives of spectrum policy makers. Only the largest self-supporting economies, such as China, Japan and the USA, can act alone on spectrum policy. For most other countries, spectrum harmonisation, although difficult, is necessary.  It is not sufficient simply to release more spectrum, since it must be the right kind for a given service or technology, must Economies of allow a wide supply of network equipment and devices and Slow scale must allow a country or region to maximise the socio- economic benefits of spectrum use, such as: economies of scale, interoperability, international roaming and interference Insensitive to Interoperability reduction. planning  The biggest challenges of harmonisation are that it can be a peculiarities of slow process and that it is insensitive to the specific needs of individual different countries. countries Roaming  However, these challenges must be confronted, as the greatest negative consequences of non-harmonisation affect consumers that are most sensitive to price. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 34. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 34 Harmonisation of the 700MHz band will be one of the most important agenda items under consideration at WRC-15 and is particularly fraught  There is an opportunity for multi-regional harmonisation of Figure 16: Truncated list of bands harmonised by the 3GPP for LTE [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] use of the 700MHz band for LTE, for which potentially there is a large addressable market, with associated economies of Band Uplink Downlink Duplex mode scale. With current radio-frequency technology, the number 1 1920–1980MHz 2110–2170MHz FDD of bands that any device can accommodate is limited and there are already more than 30 LTE bands designated by the 2 1850–1910MHz 1930–1990MHz FDD 3GPP. This creates an environment in which research and 3 1710–1785MHz 1805–1880MHz FDD development effort becomes focused on certain bands. Bands that are harmonised across many countries and 4 1710–1755MHz 2110–2155MHz FDD regions will get strong vendor support and benefit the most 5 824–849MHz 869–894MHz FDD from economies of scale. 6 830–840MHz 875–885MHz FDD  The sub-regions of ITU Region 1 (that is, Europe, and the Middle East and Africa) could devise 700MHz band plans 7 2500–2570MHz 2620–2690MHz FDD that are incompatible with those used elsewhere in the world, 8 880–915MHz 925–960MHz FDD which would create a niche environment in which countries that employ it become isolated, lose vendor support and are 9 1749.9–1784.9MHz 1844.9–1879.9MHz FDD cut off from mainstream investment. The following 10 1710–1770MHz 2110–2170MHz FDD organisations will put forward proposals before WRC-15 for different band plans in Region 1: the ATU, the Arab 11 1427.9–1452.9MHz 1475.9–1500.9Mhz FDD Spectrum Management Group (ASMG) and the European 13 777–787MHz 746–756MHz FDD Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations (CEPT). … … … …  Alternative and incompatible band plans are already in place 43 3600–3800MHz 3600–3800MHz TDD in ITU Region 2 (Canada and the USA) and ITU Region 3 (Asia–Pacific). © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 35. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 35 Several organisations will liaise with NRAs and other spectrum bodies in an attempt to achieve regional, and worldwide, harmonisation Figure 17: World regions and associated spectrum management organisations [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] CEPT ASMG APT CITEL ATU Key ITU Region 1 ITU Region 2 ITU Region 3 © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 36. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 36 The challenge of harmonisation The importance of harmonisation ITU Region 1 ITU Region 2 ITU Region 3 © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 37. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 37 Views on the 700MHz band are starting to form in some countries of Western Europe  In 2011, Finland reached a much-sought-after agreement with the Russian authorities to use spectrum in the 800MHz band, a band that had previously been used by Russian military aviation. The Finnish authorities strongly believe in the value of freeing up spectrum for mobile use. The country is keen to clear DTT from the 700MHz spectrum.  In France, the operator SFR has been one of the European operators active in the push for the reallocation of the 700MHz band. The Chief Frequency Officer of SFR has recently stated that he would like to see the whole DTT band cleared.  In the UK, the regulator, Ofcom, has issued a consultation on future use of the 700MHz band. The consultation proposes that the 700MHz band be released for mobile use in the UK from around 2018, subject to the necessary replanning of DTT services. It is also proposed that spectrum in the 600MHz range – originally part of the UK’s ‘digital dividend’ created from the switch-off of analogue TV services – might be made available for DTT use, rather than being auctioned. This would provide replacement spectrum for DTT, if the 700MHz band is used for mobile services. However, this would require significant replanning of DTT frequencies, not just in the UK, but across Europe. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 38. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 38 An allocation for aeronautical navigation services in the 700MHz and 800MHz bands poses problems in some countries in the east of Region 1 Figure 18: ITU RR No. 5.312 aeronautical navigation band for some countries in the east of ITU Region 1 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] UHF DTT band 700MHz band 800MHz band 228MHz 92MHz 72MHz 470MHz 698 790 862MHz UHF DTT band ITU RR No. 5.312 aeronautical radio navigation band 175MHz 217MHz 470MHz 645 862 MHz  ITU Radio Regulation No. 5.312 designates an additional allocation for aeronautical radio navigation service on a primary basis in 645–862MHz in the following countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. However, this allocation is protected only until June 2015.  Furthermore, the European Common Frequency Allocation Table (ECA), contained in the ERC Report 25, allocates the frequency band 862–960MHz to primary mobile service with a secondary allocation to aeronautical radio navigation in the sub-band 890–942MHz (although this band has been used for GSM/UMTS in the majority of European countries for some time now).  The CEPT has urged CEPT Administrations to take all practical steps to clear the band 645–960MHz of assignments for aeronautical radio navigation services and this is beginning to happen. Russia has already awarded licences in the 800MHz band (July 2012), and the following countries have announced plans to auction 800MHz licences: Romania (the fourth quarter of 2012), Slovakia (2012), and Poland (2015). © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 39. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 39 Europe will face many challenges if it aims to harmonise its 700MHz band plan with those of other regions Figure 19: Digital dividend band plans in Asia–Pacific, Europe, and Canada and the USA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] 698MHz 790MHz 806MHz 862MHz 800MHz band Europe (Region 1) Downlink Uplink 791 821 832 862 Possible ‘lost spectrum’ caused by overlap 700MHz band Uplink Downlink Asia–Pacific (Region 3) 703 748 758 803 Uplink Downlink Downlink Uplink USA and Canada (Region 2) 698 716 746 758 776 788 © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 40. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 40 The UAE was the first country in Region 1 to publish its intended plan for the 700MHz band Figure 20: Proposed 700MHz band plans, the UAE and the UK [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] LTE FDD uplink Gap LTE FDD downlink 30MHz 25MHz 30MHz 694MHz 703 733 758 788 790MHz DTT LTE800 2×30MHz  Regulatory authorities in ITU Region 1 are beginning to consider how to resolve the issue of the overlap between the APT 700MHz band plan and the European 800MHz plan.  The regulator in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA), is the first in Region 1 to put forward its intended 700MHz band plan. The TRA announced in a consultation document published in May 2012 that it intends to use both the 700MHz and 800MHz bands for mobile in the UAE. It intends to use the 2×30MHz frequency plan shown in Figure 20, which it developed unilaterally, and which is a modified version of the APT’s band plan.  The band plan’s close alignment with that of the APT is an important benefit for equipment manufacturers; in particular, the duplex gap, though slightly larger in the UAE’s plan, overlaps with that in the APT plan, and maintains the same 55MHz duplex spacing.  The TRA is working with broadcasters to clear the 700MHz band and make it available for mobile by WRC-15 or before. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 41. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 41 Russia is the only Region 1 country to have already awarded spectrum in the 700MHz band, which could lead to incompatibilities with other plans Figure 21: The APT 700MHz band plan and the position of licences awarded in Russia in the 700MHz band [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] 10MHz FDD uplink duplex FDD downlink 45MHz 45MHz gap 698MHz 703 748 758 803 806 FDD uplink FDD downlink 30MHz 30MHz 720MHz 750 761 791  On 8 September 2011, Russia’s General Radio Frequency Centre (GRFC) published a consultation document that indicated which spectrum would be used for LTE services and the timeline for a spectrum auction. The auction conditions included provisions that the winners of licences in the790–862MHz (800MHz) band should also be awarded spectrum in the 2500–2690MHz band and the 720–750MHz or 761–791MHz (700MHz) band, in accordance with the relative size of the lots awarded to each operator in the 800MHz band.  The GRFC had earmarked this spectrum for wireless communication about six months before the band was suggested for mobile use in Region 1 at WRC-12. The significance of this is that the band is not harmonised with the ITU Region 3 700MHz band plan – the uplink allotments overlap and the duplex gap is 1MHz larger in the Russian scheme.  As a result, Russian operators may not be able to take immediate advantage of the economies of scale afforded by harmonisation of that particular band. Furthermore, CEPT may recommend a band plan for Europe that does not align with the spectrum lots allocated in Russia. The band plan in the Middle East and Africa will most likely align with the band plans pursued in Europe or Asia, so Russian operators will have difficulty sourcing devices for the band. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 42. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 42 Africa is also discussing alternative plans for the 700MHz band Figure 22: Proposed 700MHz band plans for MEA and the APT 700MHz band plan [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] DTT LTE800 FDD downlink 30MHz 791MHz LTE FDD uplink Gap LTE FDD downlink 30MHz 25MHz 30MHz 694MHz 703 733 758 788 790MHz PPDR PPDR LTE FDD uplink Gap LTE FDD downlink uplink? 30MHz 15MHz downlink? 30MHz 10MHz 10MHz 693MHz 703 733 748 758 788MHz Proposed 5MHz LTE FDD uplink 5MHz 5MHz FDD uplink LTE FDD downlink 45MHz 45MHz 45MHz 698MHz 703 748 753 758 803MHz PPDR PPDR uplink LTE FDD uplink Gap LTE FDD downlink 10MHz 45MHz 10MHz 45MHz downlink 10MHz 693MHz 703 748 758 803 813MHz LTE FDD uplink Gap LTE FDD downlink 45MHz 10MHz 45MHz 698MHz 703 748 758 803 806MHz © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 43. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 43 The challenge of harmonisation The importance of harmonisation ITU Region 1 ITU Region 2 ITU Region 3 © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 44. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 44 The USA’s 700MHz band plan is unlikely to be adopted widely elsewhere Figure 23: The USA’s 700MHz band plan [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] 698MHz Unpaired 806MHz BB NB BB NB A B C D E A B C C 10 MHz 6MHz C 10 MHz 6MHz 6MHz 6MHz 6MHz 6MHz 6MHz 6MHz 11MHz uplink 11MHz uplink 6MHz 6MHz downlink downlink uplink uplink uplink downlink downlink downlink downlink Public downlink Public Public safety Public safety safety safety The upper 700MHz band The lower 700MHz band 1MHz guard bands, auctioned for commercial use  In the USA, terrestrial TV broadcasting had switched fully from analogue to digital transmission by February 2009, and licences in the 700MHz band were auctioned in January 2008.  The US 700MHz band is formed from two sub-bands: the upper and lower. Each sub-band has its own plan. Unfortunately, two non-interoperable classes of device have emerged that operate in the lower 700MHz band. This development was unexpected, and raises concerns about the generation of a vibrant device ecosystem. To date, this lack of interoperability has made it difficult for operators to obtain mobile broadband devices.  The US band plan follows a 6MHz channelisation scheme intended to ensure compatibility with the previous use of the band for broadcasting. However, LTE is based on a bandwidth of 5MHz, so channels of 6MHz present a challenge in terms of optimising spectrum efficiency. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012
  • 45. Hz spectrum band: market drivers and harmonisation challenges worldwide 45 Only one of the USA’s closest neighbours has adopted its plan for the 700MHz band Canada Mexico  In the past, because of its proximity to the US market, Canada has often adopted spectrum allocations and band plans harmonised with those of the USA.  Industry Canada proposed a number of band plan options, many of which were modified versions of the US band plan, but using 5MHz or 10MHz channels, rather than the US’s 6MHz channels. It has finally concluded that harmonisation with the US band plan should be broadly adopted, but chose to make slight adjustments in the upper 700MHz band. © Analysys Mason Limited 2012