The presentation gives an overview of the development of bio-based chemicals and their potential land requirements

1. NNFCC
The changing face of the planet
The role of Bio-based Plastics
on global land use change
Dr Adrian Higson
June 2012

2. NNFCC
A specialist bio-based economy consultancy based in York, UK.
Company Vision
We view bio-based technologies as key
components of the low carbon economy
delivering economic, social and environmental
benefits.
We believe the bioeconomy will create
sustainable business opportunities for
feedstock suppliers, technology and project
developers, manufacturers and investors.
Company Mission
To provide clients with a holistic view of feedstock, technology, policy and market
development across the bioeconomy, enabling them to make informed business
decisions and develop sustainable business strategies.

3. NNFCC
Terminology The aggregate set of economic
operations in a society that use
the latent value incumbent in
biological products and processes
economy to capture new growth and
welfare benefits for citizens and
nations. (OECD)
Activity associated with the use
of biological products (plants,
bio- animals, micro-organisms) to
economy
produce energy and materials
bio-based Activity associated with the use
economy of biomass to produce energy
and materials

4. NNFCC
Why the interest?
Global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions Europe is on track to spend over
from fossil-fuel combustion reached a USD500 billion on oil imports this year,
record high of 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in which is well in excess of the Greek
2011 – IEA preliminary estimates government’s USD370 billion debt - IEA

5. NNFCC
Bio Chemicals and Bio-Based Polymers
(all areas of economy)
Chemical Derivatives Naval Stores
Natural Products Oleochemicals
Market size
Biopolymers Amino Acids
~ 50 million tones
Alcohols Aliphatic acids
Other
Fermentation Products
54%
7%
4%
17%
1%
7% 5%
1%
20%
1%

6. NNFCC
Market expansion and development activity
Currently over 30 companies actively
commercialising over 50 bulk chemicals
Gr
ee
Ca
Re
nc
Gl
th
Companies working on bio-based chemicals
ol
ve
yc
ay
Co
Ta
rd
Go
Ea
M
os
Gl
In
lb
ia
iw
od
et
stm
ob
Am
ol
Bi
du
(
Gl
an
Gr
DS
ab
tT
ye
ot
al
st
ob
an
yr
In
ee
ol
Co
Na
M
ec
ar
ec
ria
Bi
Ge
is/
di
al
ic
nB
Ch
An
/R
/G
hn
rp
oe
hn
tu
lB
Ve
Bi
Bi
aG
M
Re
no
Bi
Ex
Bu
No
Ze
Br
Vi
oq
or
em
el
en
Bi
M
OP
ol
ne
re
io
oA
oc
ol
io
rd
Du
oc
ich
m
nn
Dr
pl
So
lyc
ny
ac
as
ta
lo
oM
og
at
ve
lo
yr
Vi
wo
ue
og
te
Pu
en
al
rg
X
e
m
DO
ica
Ge
or
he
at
AD
TM
P
eli
he
te
DS
ov
at
ke
m
gic
io
re
lva
th
ian
zy
ie
do
ch
ol
ph
ie
t te
Bi
ies
on
be
ra
co
rk
ica
CN
er
ch
hs
m
ax
n
ls
n
vo
m
nt
W
a
ia
ne
s
s
m
M
M
s
o
O
s
l
y
a
c
t
s
r
t
r
i
)
Methanol
Formic Acid
Ethanol
Ethylene
Ethylene Oxide
Ethylene Glycol (MEG)
Acetic Acid
Bio-based chemicals
Ethyl acetate
Epichlorohydrin
Acetone
isoPropanol
Propylene
Propylene Glycol
1,3-Propanediol
Lactic acid
Acrylic Acid
n-Butanol
iso-Butanol
iso-Butylene
Butadiene
Succinic acid
2,3-Butanediol
1,4-Butanediol
Tetrahydrofuran
Isoprene
Adipic acid
HMDA
Benzene
Toluene
Paraxylene
Terephthalic acid
Styrene

7. NNFCC
Market building - European Lead Market Initiative
• Standards, labels and certification
• Legislation promoting market
development
• Product specific legislation
• Legislation related to biomass
• Encourage Green Public Procurement
• Financing and funding of research

8. NNFCC
Bio-based chemical platforms
60%
Ethanol Ethylene Polyethylenes
7%
Styrene
Polymers/Rubbers
Monomer
Ethanol production ~ 70 million tonnes
Ethylene 14%
Polyester
Oxide/Glycol
Ethylene production ~ 110 million tonnes
12%
EDC PVC
7%
Other Alpha Olefins
PVA
PET Collaborative

9. NNFCC
Bio-based chemical platforms
Polybutylene
Succinic Acid 1,4-Butanediol Terephthalate
Tetrahydrofuran Copolyester Ethers
Deicers/Coolent
Polytetramethylene
Ether Glycol
Solvent Thermoplastic
Plasticisers Polyurethanes
-Butyrolactone Spandex Fibres
Fuel Additives
Fine & Speciality
Chemicals
N-Methyl -2- N-Vinyl-2-
Pyrrolidone 2-Pyrrolidone
Pyrrolidone
Fine & Speciality Fine & Speciality Polyvinyl
Chemicals Chemicals Pyrrolidone

10. NNFCC
Why now?
Brand owner focus
Climate Change Environment
Mandates/Support Functionality
Politically Consumer
Right place, wrong time Driven Pull
Wrong place, right time
Right place, right time!
Raw Technology
Material Push
Commodity differentiation Industrial Biotech
Price volatility Green chemistry

11. NNFCC
Comparative Feedstock Pricing

12. NNFCC
Bio-based chemicals – Novel or drop in?
• Drop in – known targets and downstream products
Strengths • Novel – exploits attributes of biomass or biological
processing
• Drop in – number of unit operations required
Weaknesses
• Novel – requirement for product development
• Drop in - rapid route to market through existing
Opportunities infrastructure and know how
• Novel – provides new or improved functionality
• Drop in – production never achieves cost
competitiveness
Threats
• Novel – immature supply chain and market
awareness

13. NNFCC
Bio-based chemical outlook
• Consumer preference
Strengths • Reduced carbon footprints & fossil energy use
• Novel / Improved function
• Low volume / High costs
Weaknesses • Immature supply chain
• Market confusion
• Oil price volatility
Opportunities • Capture C3 and C4 markets
• Co-development with fuel industry
• Feedstock supply
Threats • Alternative feedstock (coal, gas)
• Environmental pressure

14. NNFCC
The value of biomass
Increasing value
Decreasing volume

15. NNFCC
Biomass – A love hate relationship!
• Available on demand
Strengths
• Carbon source
• Cost
Weaknesses
• Physical nature
• Energy generation (heat and power)
Opportunities • Liquid transport fuels
• Chemicals and materials
• Competition for land
Threats
• Environmental pressure

16. NNFCC
Opportunity, complexity, and confusion
Source IEA Task 42, NNFCC

17. NNFCC
Client questions
• What’s the value proposition in bioplastics?
– Function vs renewable content
• What does the environmental footprint look like?
– greenhouse gas emissions, water impacts
• How big is the potential market opportunity/impact? Time horizons
2020
– niche or mainstream
2030
– true rate of development 2050
• What do the resource requirements look like?
– Availability, price, impact on other markets
• How will technology develop?
– Synthetic biology, biomass crops etc

18. NNFCC
Do we have enough land to feed the planet and
produce the low carbon energy, fuels and materials
needed by a population expected to reach 9 billion
by 2050?

19. NNFCC
Land availability and use
Global arable land could be doubled
However, what is the limit of sustainable expansion?
What are the environmental and societal implications of
expansion and land use change?

20. NNFCC
How to view the future
Chemical driven Bioeconomy
Political support for bioeconomy
Political support for biofuel wanes
Biotech breakthroughs expand to
Limited commercial biotech breakthroughs
chemicals
Industry based on arable crops
Industry based on biomass & arable crops
NNFCC
scenarios
Biofuels stalled Biofuel driven
Current political support for biofuel
Political support for biofuel grows
remains
Biotech breakthroughs limited to biofuel
Limited commercial biotech breakthroughs
Industry based on biomass crops
Industry based on arable crops

21. NNFCC
Questions, variables and assumptions
Biopolymer volume fixed as a % of overall market
Plastic market growth rates?
Which biopolymers will achieve a significant place in the market?
Production technology?
Production geography?
Feedstock preference?
Bio-based content of polymers?

22. NNFCC
Future development Hurdles
• Lignocellulose deconstruction
• Fermentation scope and yields
• Downstream processing
Game changers
• Synthetic biology
• Synthesis gas fermentation

23. NNFCC
Biopolymer Scenarios - land requirements (2030)
50
% of available land
40
30
Chemical driven
20
Biofuel stalled
10 Biofuel driven
0 Bioeconomy
Polymer demand – 428 million tonnes
Land availability – 250-800 million ha (Source FAO)

24. NNFCC
Land requirements – the bigger picture

25. NNFCC
Regional Development
Sustainable agriculture
Established agri supply chains
Strong technology base
Sustainable agriculture Limited political support
Established agri supply chains
High residue availability
Strong technology base
Strong political support Agricultural sustainability?
Land availability?
Strong political support
Access to growing markets
Established cultivation and
processing
Available arable land
High crop yields (sugar cane) Large arable land
Good residue availability potential
(bagasse) Limited access to skills
Good access to growing markets Limited access to markets

26. NNFCC
Sustainability through project control
Round Table on Sustainable Biofuels
12 Principles for sustainable biofuel production
– Legality
– Planning, Monitoring and Continuous Improvement
– Greenhouse Gas Emissions
– Human and Labour Rights
– Rural and Social Development
– Local Food Security
– Conservation
– Soil
– Water
– Air
– Use of Technology, Inputs and Management of Wastes
– Land Rights

27. NNFCC
Mitigation Strategies
 Use our existing resources better by driving innovation
 Migrate to non-food feedstock like wastes, agricultural residues, algae
and lignocellulosic crops
 Push policies towards sectors with limited alternatives

28. NNFCC
Maximising resource use
raw material
Material Cycle Energy Cycle

29. NNFCC
The NNFCC provides high quality, industry leading consultancy
for more information contact us
Email - enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk
+44 (0) 1904 435182
Follow us on Twitter @NNFCC
• Future Market Analysis • Technology evaluation & associated
• Feedstock Logistics Planning due diligence
• Sustainability Strategy • Project feasibility assessment
Development • Policy and regulatory support