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Vietnam economicoutlook doom_or_boom_march5
1.
Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
2.
Boom or Doom in Vietnam in 2009? March 2009
Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
3.
Agenda • Setting the scene and Vietnam outlook • Consumer behavior over Tet 2009
• Vietnamese consumer concerns and thoughts on the economy. How are consumers reacting? • How could Vietnamese consumer behavior change in the 6 months • Key findings & implications • Driving growth in 2009 Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 3 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
4.
Research design • Nielsen Omnibus –
Urban (HCM & HN): Monthly – Urban & Rural: Quarterly – Sample Size: 300 – HCM 150, HN 150 – Fieldwork: 15 – 24 Jan, 2009 – Methodology – Face to face recruitment & interview – Pen and paper administration – Criteria – Male and female (50/50%) – Aged 18 to 50 – All SEC/income levels • Nielsen Retail Audit up to December 2008 Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 4 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
5.
Setting the scene • Vietnam has one of the fastestexpanding economies in the world (second only to China) with growth averaging 7.5 % a year since
2000. – November 2008 th th st – 9 most confident consumers globally (declined from 7 ranked in 1 half 2008) – Total FMCG (6 cities) – + 20% value growth in Dec 08 vs year ago (+35% June to Oct 2008) – + 4% volume growth in Dec 08 vs year ago – 2008 AT Kearney report – Vietnam most attractive retail market (ahead of India, Russia, China & Egypt) Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 5 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
6.
Vietnam’s GDP growth has been strong
Vietnam Real GDP Growth % 2003 2008 Vietnamese 9 8.4 8.5 Government 8.2 7.8 Forecast, March 5, 8 2009 7.3 7 6.5 6.2 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 •Real GDP growth % Source: 2003 2008 figures from Asia Development Bank Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 6 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
7.
In 2009 Vietnam GDP growth will slow to…
• GDP growth fell in 2008: 6.2% vs. 8.5% in 2007 • IMF predicts Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2009 will slow to 5%, whilst the Vietnamese Government predicts between 6.57.5% (By comparison, IMF predicts world growth to slow to 0.5% in 2009) • Vietnamese Government preparing a stimulus package Source: IMF up to $6billion which is equal to around 7% of 2009 GDP. Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 7 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
8.
Vietnam inflation peaked in August and has since slowed
Vietnam CPI YOY 2007 February 2009 30 28.3 27.9 27.6 26.8 27.0 25.2 24.2 25 21.4 19.4 19.9 20 17.5 15.7 14.8 14.1 15 10 8.5 5 0 J a a l A ly il em r br 9 M y e m t br 8 Ju Ja r M em ct ch ch ay ry ec ber O er ne s e be pr Fe 0 Fe 0 r t Ju Se ugu N ob b ua ua to M ar ar n n A 07 pt ov 20 D Source: IMF, ADB and Bloomberg News Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 8 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
9.
Inflation returning to manageable levels in 2009
Vietnam CPI YOY % 20062010 *2009, 2010 forecasts 25 23 20 May be reforecast lower in coming days (March) 15 11 10 8.5 7.5 7 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: 20062007 data from IMF and CIEC: 20082010 IMA Asia Brief December 2008 Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 9 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
10.
Vietnam Outlook • Vietnam’s attractiveness is high & growth opportunities
are abundant • Vietnam’s potential to develop and grow remains • Half the population is under 30 years old = lower cost of labor + high consumption demand will help fuel growth • Tourism grew in 2008 4.3mil tourists (up 100,000 v. 2007); $3.5bil revenue (up 7% YoY) • Trade and budget deficits are high but expected to drop in 2009 Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 10 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
11.
Consumer behavior over Tet 2009
Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 11 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
12.
Average spend over Tet in HCM around VND 3.5 mil…but almost VND 5 million in Hanoi.
Average spending at Tet VND 000s (Household usage and gifts) 3,720 2,950 2,690 850 813 959 0.00 Household Gifts Total (n= 300) HCM (A) n= 150 HN (B) n= 150 ABCSig @95%CL Q23, Q24: How much do you usually spend on Tet holiday for household Base: All respondents (n= 300) Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 usage, for gifts? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 12 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
13.
Almost 50% spent less this Tet compared to previous
years Spending at Tet (Household usage and gifts) 100% 1 1 1 9 9 8 80% 36 43 45 60% 40% 45 54 41 20% 0% 4 3 Total (n= 300) HCM (A) n= 150 HN (B) n= 150 ABCSig @95%CL Much less A little less Same A little more Much more Q17: Compared to previous years, how much money are you spending in Base: All respondents (n= 300) Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 the lead up to this Tet holiday? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 13 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
14.
Why did consumers spend less this Tet?
Consumers claim things are more expensive and they have less money to spend. Reasons for spending less this Tet Things are now more expensive 74 71 82 My family has less money to spend 39 35 49 I must save more, be more cautious in 21 22 18 spending Everyone is cutting down their expenses 20 21 18 I'm afraid the economy will be worse next 2 13 18 year I have no/ little salary increase this year 13 19 % % % HN (B) n= 82 Total (n= 148) HCM (A) n= 66 Q18: What are the main reasons you are spending less in the lead up to Base: Those spending less (n= 148) Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 this Tet holiday compared to previous years? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 14 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
15.
One third of households spent less on key FMCG
categories…except Food. Changes in Spending at Tet Household Gifts Beer 34 53 12 1 23 38 10 30 Confectionery 31 59 9 1 20 52 7 21 Beverage 33 57 9 1 18 39 6 37 Clothing 30 56 14 2 7 3 87 Food 19 69 11 1 8 10 1 80 Tobacco 32 60 7 1 6 24 4 66 Others 11 75 5 10 13 19 9 60 Less than 1 year ago Same amount as 1 year ago More than 1 year ago Don't know Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 Q21: On this Tet, is the amount you purchase less, the same or more Base: All respondents (n= 300) HCM= HN= 150 than you did on Tet holiday 1 year ago for household usage? For gifts? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 15 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
16.
Leading up to Tet 2009 consumers spent less on
eating out, going to bars/coffee shops and entertaining at home Changing in spending Travelling overseas 83 15 2 1 Travelling within Vietnam 27 45 22 6 1 Hold parties/ eating at home 3 39 51 7 Going to pubs/bars/coffee shops 9 15 55 20 2 Going to movies/ concerts 24 30 30 15 1 Eating out 2 7 62 28 1 Don't usually spend on this Did not spend on it this year I spent less I spent the same amount I spent more Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 Q35: How you have spent on each of the following entertainment Base: All respondents (n= 300) HCM= HN= 150 activities in the lead up to Tet holiday, compared to previous years? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 16 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
17.
Consumers claimed to spend less on all channels,
particularly Modern trade & wet markets over Tet Spending at Retail channels Total HCM HN 23 63 14 28 57 15 9 81 11 Grocery stores Wet market 35 58 7 34 58 8 38 59 3 Modern trade 38 57 5 36 60 5 46 48 6 Total (n= 300) HCM (A) n= 150 HN (B) n= 150 Spending less on this channel Spending the same on this channel Spending more on this channel Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 Q36: How are you spending on each of the following retail channels in Base: All respondents (n 300) HCM= HN= 150 the lead up to Tet holiday, compared to previous years? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 17 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
18.
Overall 80% of consumers said they did not change pack
sizes for Tet given tighter economy. Total HCM HN 2% 1% 5% 14% 18% 29% 66% 80% 85% Total (n= 300) HCM (A) n= 150 HN (B) n= 150 No, I have not changed the size of the packs Yes, I tend to buy smaller packs Yes, I tend to buy larger packs ABCSig @95%CL Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 Q37: Overall have you changed the size of the packs you have been Base: All respondents (n= 300) HCM= HN= 150 purchasing in the lead up to Tet, compared to previous years? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 18 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
19.
Consumers are paying more attention to price than
before…40% in HCM & 28% in Hanoi Total HCM HN 12% 2% 16% 28% 44% 51% 37% 70% 40% Total (n= 300) HCM (A) n= 150 HN (B) n= 150 Always conscious of price Paying more attention to price than before Just buy what I need, regardless of price ABCSig @95%CL Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 Q39: Overall what would you say about your consciousness towards the Base: All respondents (n= 300) HCM= HN= 150 price of goods in the lead up to Tet compared to previous years? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 19 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
20.
Vietnamese consumer concerns and thoughts on the economy
Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 20 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
21.
It’s not doom and gloom in Vietnam.
45% say Vietnam’s economy is worse than 6 months ago. Only 55% say world economy is worse. Vietnam’s economy The world’s economy 100% 100% 0 3 4 5 7 20 15 14 25 23 33 80% 80% 14 24 28 60% 60% 27 31 18 37 40% 40% 37 37 35 30 48 20% 20% 29 18 10 13 14 0% 2 0% Total (n= 300) HCM (A) n= 150 HN (B) n= 150 Total (n= 300) HCM (A) n= 150 HN (B) n= 150 A lot worse A little worse Same A little better Don't know ABCSig @95%CL Q30, Q31: How would you rate the Vietnamese economy/ other major Base: All respondents (n= 300) Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 economies around the world, compared to 6 months ago? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 21 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
22.
Consumers believe Global Economic Crisis is driving
inflation and unemployment in Vietnam Impact on Vietnam Nature of impact Reasons for Negative evaluation 11% Most important drivers (overall) % 12% Inflation 51 86 Unemployment 46 Causing crisis to Vietnam's economy 18 Causing Vietnam's export to decline 14 Causing currency to devalue 14 77% 11 Yes No Don't know 2 Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 Don't know Positive Negative Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 22 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Base: Those saying Vietnam’s economy is impacted (n= 247) Q32, Q33, Q34: Impact of other economies on Vietnam
23.
Food price increases is the biggest concern for
consumers Consumers’ General Concerns Price increase in daily food 6 33 61 Pollution 8 38 54 Price increase in petrol 10 38 53 Future of my children 1 11 37 51 How to develop own business 12 39 49 How to take care of my children 1 10 1 42 46 Low increase in salary 8 47 46 Saving 8 54 38 Global economy 3 16 52 29 Not concerned at all Somewhat not concerned Neutral Somewhat concerned Very concerned Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 23 in 2009? Base: All respondents (n= 300) HCM= HN= 150 Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Q40: To what extent are you concerned about the following?
24.
How are consumers reacting? How could Vietnamese consumer behaviour change in the 6 months
Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 24 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
25.
Overall FMCG growth rate has slowed since mid 2008, but volume is still up by 4.5% v. 2007 and value growth is above 20% YOY Total Defined FMCG Volume & Value Growth : Vietnam Total 6 Cities
43.5 38.7 38.1 36.2 35.1 33.8 33.5 32.6 30.7 28 27.0 26.2 24.2 20.1 20.6 17.9 14.8 14.2 13.4 13.2 11.7 11.1 5.6 4.1 JAN07 FEB07 MAR07 APR07 MAY07 JUN07 JUL07 AUG07 SEP07 OCT07 NOV07 DEC07 JAN08 FEB08 MAR08 APR08 MAY08 JUN08 JUL08 AUG08 SEP08 OCT08 NOV08 DEC08 Volume Sales Volume Growth v.s YA Value Growth v.s YA Nielsen Vietnam Retail Audit 2007 2008 Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 25 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
26.
Beverages growth has remained strong whereas
growth for other departments has tapered 60.0 FMCG Department Volume % Growth vs YA (Vietnam Top 6 cities) 60.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 40.0 31.3 30.0 30.0 21.7 20.0 20.0 18.6 14.5 13.0 10.0 10.0 8.5 7.8 6.7 5.7 3.8 0.0 0.0 JAN08 FEB08 M AR08 APR08 MAY08 JUN08 JUL08 AUG08 SEP08 OCT08 NOV08 DEC08 4.8 4.1 10.0 10.0 FMCG Per sonal Care House hold Care Food Beverage Cigarette Nielsen Vietnam Retail Audit 2008 Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 26 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
27.
Fast Food and CSDs potentially the hardest hit in the next 6
months amongst Food categories, according to consumers Total spending Foods and drinks (in general) 5 21 67 6 26% Fast foods 4 18 42 31 5 60% Carbonated soft drinks 12 46 36 4 2 58% Milk products 1 9 32 50 9 41% Vegetables 10% 1 9 78 11 1 Do not spend money on this Will spend significantly less than usual Will spend a little less than usual Will spend the same Will spend a little more than usual Will spend significantly more than usual Q43: Please tell us about your spending behavior in the next 6 months, Base: All respondents (n= 300) Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 regarding the following categories? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 27 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
28.
All nonfood categories will be impacted in next 6
months according to consumers Total spending Shopping (in general) 12 54 29 5 66% Household items 7 25 40 23 4 1 65% Electronic items 7 23 48 19 3 71% Facial care 17 24 33 23 3 57% Clothes 11 47 36 6 58% Do not spend money on this Will spend significantly less than usual Will spend a little less than usual Will spend the same Will spend a little more than usual Will spend significantly more than usual Q43: Please tell us about your spending behavior in the next 6 months, Base: All respondents (n= 300) Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 regarding the following categories? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 28 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
29.
Vietnamese consumers also expecting to spend
less on utilities in next 6 months Total spending Utility (in general) 2 5 41 47 4 1 46% Electricity 6 49 41 4 55% Fuel 5 44 49 3 49% Phone bills 11 48 37 4 59% Do not spend money on this Will spend significantly less than usual Will spend a little less than usual Will spend the same Will spend a little more than usual Will spend significantly more than usual Q43: Please tell us about your spending behavior in the next 6 months, Base: All respondents (n= 300) Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 regarding the following categories? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 29 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
30.
Decrease in spending on entertainment likely in next 6
months Total spending Entertainment (in general) 2 28 48 20 4 76% Traveling (domestic) 27 48 20 4 2 68% Traveling (overseas) 81 13 4 1 17% Cinema 32 32 24 10 2 56% Going out (clubbing/ karaoke/...) 7 38 37 17 1 75% Newspapers/ magazines 3 17 29 50 1 46% Do not spend money on this Will spend significantly less than usual Will spend a little less than usual Will spend the same Will spend a little more than usual Will spend significantly more than usual Q43: Please tell us about your spending behavior in the next 6 months, Base: All respondents (n= 300) Nielsen Vietnam Omnibus 2009 regarding the following categories? Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 30 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
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Key findings • Vietnam’s Economic Impact on FMCG
– Overall Vietnamese consumers are more confident compared to other countries. – 37% of consumers said they will NOT spend less this year as most are concerned with price increases. – FMCG growth rates have slowed slightly…but are still stronger relative to most other countries • More than half intend to spend less in next 6 months on Fast Food, CSD and nonfood categories • Majority think global economic crisis is having a negative impact on Vietnam…but not all consumers! – Particularly inflation & unemployment • Biggest concern for consumers is the price increases for daily food • Consumers intend to spend less on eating out & going to bars / coffee shops • Overall Vietnamese consumers more price conscious and understandably more cautious…particularly for non essential items… but they are still positive! Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 31 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
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Warren Buffet said “By year end, investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game.” But… he wasn’t talking about Vietnam! • Whilst Vietnam is not immune to the global economic and financial
woes, we don’t know how or if Vietnam will be hurt • Vietnam has been recognized with Full Market Economy Status by Australia and New Zealand before the 2009 March ASEAN summit • Many growth opportunities exist in Vietnam TODAY Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 32 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
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Driving growth and market share in 2009 • Significant growth opportunities remain in Vietnam for most FMCG categories • Companies who continue to invest and innovate will secure a strong long term
future when the economy improves • Now is a time to build brands and consumer loyalty. Cutting advertising and promotion spending will dilute your brand equity. In a developing market like Vietnam think long term, not short term • During tougher economic times it is critical to offer value to consumers – remind them why your brand should be part of their household repertoire • Many high growth opportunities exist in Vietnam – evaluate your current distribution coverage to identify new channels or geographies to drive growth • Focus on big wins – rationalise your range to maintain a focused offer to best meet the needs of each key consumer segment • Continue to invest to secure a strong long term position for your brands. Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 33 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
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Thank you
Vietnam – Boom or Doom Confidential & Proprietary March 2009 Page 34 in 2009? Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company
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