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Seizing the opportunity in
   Mobile broadband
   -Brazil Perspective-
                   March 2011




                                                         Acision Mobile broadband Research
                                                               for the Brazilian market

                                                                In association with:



                                                                                       1
     Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
     Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
1.   Introduction and Overview ..................................................................................................... 4
     Brazil – an emerging mobile broadband market ............................................................................... 4
     Main conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 5
     Report synopsis ............................................................................................................................... 7
2.   The Mobile Broadband Life Cycle ............................................................................................ 8
     The mobile broadband lifecycle – igniting consumer adoption ......................................................... 8
     The growth of data volumes – the continuous tsunami .................................................................... 9
     Quality of Experience – ride the hype cycle .................................................................................... 10
     Seizing the opportunity – a head start on differentiation ............................................................... 11
3.   The Operator Challenge ....................................................................................................... 11
     The root cause – oversubscription ratio in mobile broadband ........................................................ 12
     The network impact – connecting the IP and Mobile worlds .......................................................... 12
     Seizing the opportunity – maximise network utilisation ................................................................. 14
4.   The Consumer Perspective ................................................................................................... 15
     Untapped potential – connecting the next 44 million ..................................................................... 15
     Quality of Experience – core service already under pressure .......................................................... 16
     Satisfaction levels – pricing is key dissatisfier ................................................................................. 17
5.   Comparing Brazil with Mature Markets ................................................................................. 18
     Mobile broadband – crucial for Brazilian broadband penetration ................................................... 18
     The lifecycle – growing mobile broadband ..................................................................................... 19
     Pricing models – the necessary trigger ........................................................................................... 19
     Service usage – frequency vs. video ............................................................................................... 20
     Quality of Experience – a challenge throughout the lifecycle.......................................................... 21
6.   Preparing for Growth ........................................................................................................... 22
     Fairness principles – securing fair distribution of bandwidth .......................................................... 22
     Content Optimisation – improving video Quality of Experience ...................................................... 23
     Differentiate the offer – add monetisable value to the service ....................................................... 24
7.   Converging Eco Systems – Telco’s in the Internet World .......................................................... 25
     Regulators – achieve sustainable net neutrality ............................................................................. 25
     Content providers – delivering the mobility experience ................................................................. 25
     Seizing the opportunity – leverage the content eco system ............................................................ 26


                                                                                                                                                         2
                                                Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                              Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
8.   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband ........................................................................ 27
     Grow ARPU by enabling a differentiated service offering ............................................................... 27
     Decrease cost by maximising network utilisation ........................................................................... 27
     Control QoE by managing relevant service aspects......................................................................... 28
     Enable value driven engagements with content providers ............................................................. 28
     Required capabilities – the mobile broadband investment agenda................................................. 29




                                                                                                                                      3
                                          Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                         Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
1. Introduction and Overview
In August of 2010, Acision commissioned independent market research agency, Quantinet, to undertake a detailed
survey to understand consumer perceptions of mobile broadband in Brazil. The research covered key aspects
associated to mobile broadband today, including insight in Mobile broadband usage and Quality of Experience.

The research in Brazil forms part of a global research initiative that Acision has undertaken in the United Kingdom,
the US, Australia and Singapore. For every region, the Acision research focuses on all aspects of mobile broadband
including the usage of the mobile internet on Smartphones, mobile handsets, dongles, modem sticks, data cards,
netbooks, and integrated mobile broadband within laptops.

The motivation for Acision to undertake this global research has been the phenomenal uptake of mobile
broadband worldwide and the rumoured Quality of Experience issues accompanying it’s steady rise. One of the
key objectives of the research has been to quantify these QoE issues, understand it’s principle drivers and
determine whether global parallels exist in its development lifecycle. Also, the potential for addressing the key
issues in terms of consumer awareness of mobile broadband and willingness to accept fairness, optimisation and
differentiation measures, has been another key objective. In both areas we can conclude the global research
initiative has been very successful and provides insight in this new and exciting market segment which is beneficial
to all stakeholders, being consumers, operators, content providers and regulators.

In this report we have dedicated a section on how Brazil can prepare for growth in Mobile broadband subscriber
uptake and usage. Comparing the research results from Brazil with those from mature Mobile broadband markets,
like the US and the UK, provides useful insight for Brazilian operators on fairness principles, how to deal with
video, and ways to differentiate the Mobile broadband offer.

The Brazil research was conducted by Quantinet, between the 17th and 22nd of August 2010 and is based on a
representative sample of 819 mobile internet users aged between 16 and 74 from Brazil. The research in The US,
UK, Australia and Singapore, which is also referenced in this report, had been conducted by YouGov and Toluna.
Separate reports for each of these countries are available as well.

                             Brazil – an emerging mobile broadband market

Mobile broadband has undeniably turned a corner. High speed networks, flat fee pricing models, Smartphones,
tablets and laptops have together fuelled a level of growth exceeding everyone’s expectation. Clearly mobile
broadband represents a very significant and strategic opportunity to operators worldwide.

Brazil represents an emerging Mobile broadband market with enormous growth potential. Even though Brazilian
operators can expect similar challenges faced by operators in mature markets, they have the advantage of being
able to draw lessons from these earlier experiences. One key lesson is the fact that simply adding network
capacity will not be sufficient to ensure customer satisfaction. While investment in network technology and
mobile coverage are essential prerequisites for the success of mobile broadband, mature markets have
demonstrated that more control is required to make the service a continued success going forward.



                                                                                                                  4
                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
The challenge lies in the fundamentally constrained nature of mobile broadband, which is already being
experienced by operators across the globe. With today’s pricing models, where substantial bundles are offered
with ever diminishing revenues, it doesn’t matter how much one invests in network technology, the demand for
capacity will always outstrip supply. This is evident when taking into account specific cell locations, where a
relatively low number of users can already create congestion issues. Because of these fundamental constraints,
consumer experience will always be under pressure as users compete with each other for limited available
capacity. Consumer experience therefore takes centre stage in the evolution of mobile broadband and it
represents the focal point of the research Acision has undertaken.

This report focuses on exploring what the next challenges are in mobile broadband and what can effectively be
done by operators in emerging markets like Brazil, to evolve the service further and continue to capitalise on the
opportunity.

                                              Main conclusions

The main conclusions of Acision’s Brazil mobile broadband research can be summarised as follows:

Brazil and the mobile broadband lifecycle – With 8 million subscribers on a population of 190 million, mobile
broadband is still in its infancy. But for those who use it, it is perceived as an important service.

        High dependence on fixed broadband with 77% of Brazilian consumers using a fixed line connection to
        access the internet, compared to 16% using a phone and 30% a laptop dongle. It also means that a relative
        low percentage of Brazilian consumers use multiple devices to access the internet.
        Mobile only use is relatively high as for 52% of the consumers that use mobile broadband for access, it is
        the only way they access the internet. Only 48% of Brazilian consumers also uses fixed next to mobile.
        Frequency of use similar to mature markets with almost 7 out of 10 users (69%) using the service on a
        weekly basis. Over half of Brazilian consumers (51%) even uses the service on a daily basis.
        High bandwidth, time sensitive services like video showing low usage with just over a quarter (26%) of
        Brazilian subscribers stating they watch videos. Only 11% of Brazilian subscribers watch videos frequently
        while the remaining 15% watches videos sporadically.
        Pricing models do not stimulate mass market uptake with 39% of subscribers paying per KB/MB and
        another 32% on a restricted package. So only 29% of the subscribers can use the service without
        restrictions or being (severely) penalised.

Quality of Experience and customer satisfaction – Even though subscriber uptake and traffic volumes are
relatively low, the majority of consumers have regular occurrences of Quality of Experience issues while using
their mobile broadband service. This results in alarming customer satisfaction levels.

        90% of Brazilian customers have Quality of Experience issues of some kind especially regarding core
        aspects of the service such as slow speeds (75%), no connection and connections stability (73% and 68%
        respectively) and network coverage (67%). Image quality issues show a much lower percentage, but still
        affects over half the customers (51%). Only 10% of respondents state they haven’t experiences any issues.



                                                                                                                5
                                  Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                 Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Quality of Experience issues are not isolated incidents with the vast majority of customers stating that
        these issues occur frequently. Core service QoE issues caused by speed (67%), no connection and
        connections stability (64% and 60% respectively) and network coverage (59%) occur the most frequent.
        Image quality is perceived as the least recurring issue with 44%.
        Dissatisfaction exists on certain elements of the service with price causing the highest level of
        dissatisfaction by far at 45% (bottom 2 out of a 5 point scale). Core service dissatisfaction levels related to
        stability (27%), download speeds (26%), signal quality (22%) and coverage (21%) are considerably lower.
        Core service satisfaction levels are relatively high, especially when compared to the (frequency of) QoE
        issues Brazilian customers have to deal with. 40% of customers are satisfied about the coverage and signal
        quality (top 2 out of a 5 point scale), followed by speed (35%) and stability (34%). Satisfaction about
        pricing levels is, as expected, extremely low at 23%.

Enormous untapped potential – With 65% of the research respondents having the capability to access the mobile
internet on their device, two thirds do not use this services, representing 44 million potential customers operators
can target. Of these prospects, 14% are considering the service, representing a core target market of 6 million. But
the single most important obstacle for consumers to even start considering the service is price (55% of non-mobile
broadband users). Once pricing models become less restrictive, mobile broadband can really take off.

Growing mobile broadband – A comparison with the mature mobile broadband markets in the US and the UK
provide 2 important lessons for Brazilian operators:

        Pricing is the necessary trigger for subscriber uptake and data usage. Transparent pricing models such as
        per day pricing, GB bundles and ‘all you can eat’, do not constrain the customer the way per KB/MB
        pricing does. Even though, per KB/MB pricing is the most common pricing model in Brazil (39%), compared
        to only 2% in the US and 4% in the UK.
        Quality of Experience remains a challenge throughout the mobile broadband lifecycle, resulting in
        considerable customer dissatisfaction levels. The mature markets even show higher levels of
        dissatisfaction, with UK consumers the most dissatisfied about all the core service aspects speed (37%),
        reliability and coverage (both 27%). The US scores slightly better on speed (33%) and reliability and
        coverage (both 21%).

Preparing for growth – Looking ahead the lifecycle curve, learning from mature markets in the US, the UK,
Singapore and Australia, there are 3 areas emerging markets should focus on from the start:

        Fairness policies - Consumers, once they understand the need for resource management, have a high
        acceptance of policies that enable a fair allocation of the available capacity. Mature markets show 67%
        support for such a policy. Many (35%) are even prepared to pay a premium if it provides improved QoE.
        Video optimisation – In mature markets, 60% of video users will accept video optimisation as long as they
        benefit from an improvement of those aspects of the service experience they find most important.
        Paid Value Added Services – Mature markets show a clear need for VAS and willingness to pay an
        additional fee for services like notifications, customisation etc. This provides a third area where operators
        in emerging markets can immediately start building a more diverse and long term revenue model.
                                                                                                                     6
                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Report synopsis

The results outlined below are based on the research Acision commissioned Quantinet to conduct in August 2010.

Mobile broadband usage – With 8 million subscribers, mobile broadband is still a niche service in Brazil.

        51% of the respondents use the service daily and 18% at least ones a week
        Fixed broadband is the most common way to access the internet (77%), compared to mobile access via
        laptop (30%) and phone (16%)
        48% of mobile broadband users are hybrid fixed/mobile users, 52% use mobile broadband only.
        Video penetration stands at 26%, with 11% frequent users and 15% sporadic users

Quality of Experience of Core Service – These issues are widespread, with only 10% of the users having no issues.

        Speed is the most encountered problem affecting 75% of the respondents, with 67% stating this issue as
        their most frequently experienced problem.
        All other core service aspects show considerable issues; no connection / staying connected (73% / 68%),
        no coverage (67%) and low image quality (51%).
        And all these issues occur frequently; no connection / staying connected (64% / 60%), no coverage (59%)
        and low image quality (44%).

Customer satisfaction – Relatively high when looking at the amount and frequency of QoE issues.

        Pricing is the main source of dissatisfaction with 45%, compared to 23% satisfaction.
        Core service dissatisfaction levels (bottom 2 out of a 5 point scale); stability (27%), download speeds
        (26%), signal quality (22%) and coverage (21%)
        Core service satisfaction levels (top 2 out of a 5 point scale); coverage / signal quality (both 40%), speed
        (35%) and stability (34%).

Untapped potential – Two thirds of the research respondents can access mobile internet but won’t. Hot prospects
are the ones planning to buy (14%). The biggest obstacle is price (55%). Other reasons; don’t need it (31%), not
reliable (13%), value unknown (11%), not available (6%), use unknown (5%), not offered (1%) and other (6%).

Growing mobile broadband – Can only happen if pricing models are stimulating uptake and usage. Per KB/MB
pricing models are most common in Brazil (39%), compared to 2% in the US and 4% in the UK. Other types of
restricted pricing models represent another 32% of Brazilian pricing models.




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                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
2. The Mobile Broadband Life Cycle
With the widespread adoption of mobile broadband in many parts of the world, operators are entering a
fundamentally new playing field. Until recently, the mobile internet was a niche service reserved for business
users or the affluent consumer. However, today things are very different and mobile broadband is on the verge of
becoming telecom’s next mass market service. With its stellar growth, especially in recent times, the mobile
broadband service has become of vital importance to the future of mobile operators.

There is, however, more at stake than the classic topic of telco revenue. Broadband access is increasingly seen as
playing a vital role in society at large. Many countries are making broadband a key policy area and are increasing
regulatory control. Finland is a case in point, being the first country to designate broadband access as a statutory
right1. This is especially relevant to mobile broadband as large parts of Finland can only be reached through using
mobile technologies.

Clearly mobile broadband is here to stay and is providing operators with an excellent opportunity to create a new
long term revenue stream. Achieving long term success is, however, far from obvious and many challenges lie
ahead on the road to broadband profitability.

                    The mobile broadband lifecycle – igniting consumer adoption

Fundamental to understanding the challenges in mobile broadband is the lifecycle of the service (figure 1). A key
                                                                     aspect in this life cycle is the occurrence
                                                                     of exponential volume growth (the black
                                                                     line in figure 1). At some point in the
                                                                     lifecycle a massive explosion of
                                                                     broadband traffic occurs which, in turn,
                                                                     is a key driver for many of the issues
                                                                     challenging        mobile        broadband
                                                                     providers.

                                                                           The exponential growth of mobile
                                                                           broadband traffic is a result of two main
                                                                           determinants:

                                                                          1. Usability of the service is the main
                                                                               prerequisite – Usability is a
                                                                               combination of network capacity
                 Figure 1 – The mobile broadband lifecycle
                                                                               which provides broadband access,
    combined with a mobile device able to run on these networks that provide an intuitive internet experience.
    The recent advances in both these areas, HDSPA and LTE for network technologies and devices such as
    android devices, iPhones and, most recently, tablets have now created the fertile starting point for a true
    broadband experience. Without this prerequisite, traffic explosion will not occur.



                                                                                                                  8
                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
2. Pricing models are a necessary trigger – only if consumers feel they can use mobile broadband without being
   penalised for usage, will the service really take off. The data traffic explosion is triggered by transparent
   pricing models such as per day pricing, Gigabyte bundles or even ‘all you can eat’ unlimited packages. This
   allows consumers to use the service without feeling constrained. Once this point is reached, mobile
   broadband will cross the chasm from being a niche service to a mass market mobility service which consumers
   embrace and freely use anytime and anyplace they like.

                         The growth of data volumes – the continuous tsunami

Acquisition strategies as the all you can eat model have been, without doubt, very successful indeed. In fact,
mobile operators have, in a sense, become victims of their own success. Mobile broadband is proving to satisfy
                                                            such an important need in consumers that, once
 7,000,000 TB per month
                                                            they start using the service in earnest, they find it
                                                            impossible to stop. As a result, data volumes in
                                                            mobile are rising continuously each year. In Latin
                                                            America, traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of
 92% CAGR 2010 - 2015
                                                            111% between 2010 to 2015, representing the
                                                            second highest level of growth of all the regions
                                                            worldwide2.

                                                                  Traffic is not only changing in terms of volume. The
                                                                  traffic mix in mobile broadband is also under
    Figure 2 2 – Growth and breakdown of mobile broadband traffic
     Figure – Growth and breakdown of mobile broadband traffic    considerable change. Especially the share of time
(source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2011)                     sensitive, real time content will grow significantly
                                                                  in mobile broadband. These are types of services
where packet loss or any delay in transmitting data has an impact on the user experience. Video, VoIP and gaming
are examples where round trip delays or packet loss can result in immediate Quality of Experience degradation
such as a stutter in a video or on a VoIP call. Current projections estimate the share of time sensitive content to
grow to approximately 70% of all mobile broadband traffic.

The data challenge for mobile broadband is therefore twofold. On the one hand operators have to deal with
significantly more traffic each year for which they have to size all their systems accordingly, including the
supporting infrastructure. In addition, they have to deal with traffic which is predominantly time sensitive. This
leaves very little room to manoeuvre for operators in terms of how they handle traffic, a topic explained in the
next section when we consider the impact on the operator’s technical infrastructure.




                                                                                                                    9
                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Quality of Experience – ride the hype cycle

The explosion of data is not the only challenge that operators face in mobile broadband. Quality of Experience is
an often ignored second challenge that operators need to address. Many factors can influence the user
experience, but limited network capacity and congestion issues caused by the data explosion mentioned above,
are the most important ones. The crux of the challenge lies in the fundamentally constrained nature of mobile
                                                                         broadband. Regardless of how much
                                                                         one invests in network technology, the
                                                                         demand for capacity will always outstrip
                                                                         supply. When taking into account
                                                                         specific cell locations, a relative low
                                                                         number of consumers can already
                                                                         create congestion issues. Because of the
                                                                         physical      constraints,    consumer
                                                                         experience will always be under
                                                                         pressure as consumers compete for
                                                                         limited available capacity. Consumer
                                                                         experience therefore, takes centre
                                                                         stage in the evolution of mobile
                                                                         broadband and it represents the focal
                                                                         point of consumer research Acision has
           Figure 3 – The consumer hype cycle of mobile broadband        undertaken around the globe.

We found the Gartner hype cycle (the red line in figure 3.) most effective in explaining the outcomes of our
research. Consumer expectations rise significantly during the early stages of mobile broadband introduction, to
such an extent that expectations are becoming inflated. The expectation in the early days of mobile broadband
that it could completely replace fixed broadband is a case in point. Although this is an inherent mechanism
accompanying many technology lifecycles, operators would do well not to fuel such expectations. Focus on
managing Quality of Experience enables operators to manage the hype cycle much more effectively and reach a
plateau of enlightenment and productivity earlier in the lifecycle.

Acision therefore believes that the Quality of Experience of mobile broadband is essential going forward. It
represents a key area where capabilities should be deployed to measure and enhance the Quality of Experience of
individual consumers. In this context it is important to realise two things. First, Quality of Experience is a very
personal concept. For some consumers price is an overriding concern while others find content quality more
important. Each consumer should be able to determine which type of experience is most suitable to their
individual needs. Secondly, Quality of Experience is all about the actual services being consumed such as video,
gaming, voice or browsing. It is at this level that the experience needs to be optimised and tailored to individual
consumer needs. This represents a step change from being packet aware to content and service awareness.




                                                                                                                10
                                  Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                 Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Seizing the opportunity – a head start on differentiation

In terms of the mobile broadband lifecycle, many markets are now entering the first stages of maturity. The initial
acquisition stage has been very effective in making mobile broadband a service which is attractive to the mass
market. For Brazil, these more mature markets provide a valuable source of information on how to fuel Mobile
Broadband growth without compromising the Quality of Experience.

Profitability remains a key challenge for operators in mature markets, especially as they are forced to move away
from the ‘all you can eat model’ and are frantically looking for ways to differentiate their offering and dig into new
revenue streams. Differentiation will be a core strategy for operators to deploy, creating value for targeted
consumer segments and monetising this value accordingly. The most essential element in building this value is the
consumer experience. Operators in emerging markets have the advantage they can start acquiring capabilities to
differentiate early in the lifecycle. A differentiated consumer experience at the content and service level
represents the key to the continued successful growth of the mobile broadband market.

                                           3. The Operator Challenge
As mature markets have shown, the initial success of mobile broadband can be partly attributed to the "all you
can eat” and “flat fee” pricing models, providing clarity to consumers with little risk of bill shock. Our research has
                                                            shown that in the US, for instance, only 2% of consumers
                                                            state paying per Megabyte (figure 4) a comparable number
                                                            to the UK (at 4%). Other markets, such as Singapore and
                                                            Australia have under 10% on MB pricing models. In Brazil,
                                                            however, over a third of all users are paying per megabyte.
                                                            Packages allowing 5 Gigabytes per month to unlimited usage
                                                            are very popular in mature markets, with over 50% of
                                                            consumers subscribed to such packages. For the US this is
                                                            even 84%. As part of the path to maturity, pricing models in
                                                            Brazil needs to introduce affordable and less restrictive
                                                            models, making the service more attractive and fuel mobile
  Figure 4 – Per MB pricing in Brazil, US, UK, Sing and Aus broadband uptake.

The relatively unrestricted packages outlined above do have an important knock on effect on operator profitability
though. In order to handle the traffic and QoE demands, operators have to invest heavily in network capacity and
supporting infrastructure. As such, the costs associated with supporting the consumption of a single subscriber
rises significantly while the basic flat fee pricing models lead to a decreasing Average Revenue per User.
Profitability is therefore under severe pressure, with a number of operators that have already bitten the bullet,
including O2 UK and AT&T US, switching to a model with data caps3. These are just the first steps in defining new
pricing models. Much is still to come in this area and operator capabilities will be stretched to the limit to support
more innovative and targeted pricing models aimed at improving profitability levels.




                                                                                                                     11
                                    Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                   Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
The root cause – oversubscription ratio in mobile broadband

The root cause of the profitability issue in mobile broadband is the oversubscription ratio or contention ratio. The
fixed broadband model has always been based on the principle that a megabit per second (Mbps) of ‘real’ capacity
                                                            could be sold many times to individual consumers.
                                                            This mechanism, which has served its purpose well in
                                                            fixed broadband, is failing in mobile for a number of
                                                            reasons. First of all, capacity in a mobile network is
                                                            much more vulnerable at the network’s edge; the
                                                            Radio Access Network (RAN). In a specific mobile cell,
                                                            RAN capacity can easily become very constrained as
                                                            more people move into the cell. In fixed this is of
                                                            course much more predictable as connected
                                                            households do not move around. Capacity in mobile
                                                            can therefore become exhausted easily in specific cell
                                                            sites, especially during certain times of the day.
    Figure 5 – The issue of dropping oversubscription ratios
A second important characteristic driving the decline of mobile oversubscription ratio’s is the proportion of time
sensitive content in mobile broadband traffic. As mentioned above, up to 70% of mobile traffic is expected to be
long duration and time sensitive traffic such as video and VoIP. These services not only generate high levels of data
volume, but in addition, claim network capacity for a sustained period of time. A YouTube movie for instance,
depending on its quality, can generate between 0.5 to 2.5 Mbps of traffic. Assuming RAN capacity of 14.4 Mbps,
between 6 and 30 video users can claim the capacity of an entire base station. This combination of limited RAN
capacity and high time sensitive content, such as video, poses one of the core challenges in mobile broadband.

                        The network impact – connecting the IP and Mobile worlds

Addressing the oversubscription ratio issue requires an end to end analysis of the chain of delivering the mobile
broadband access service. In this service chain a number of fundamental issues exist:

The devices that connect to the internet come in an ever increasingly wider variety, ranging from laptops,
smartphones, netbooks and iPads to game consoles. Each device has its own characteristics, screen size, memory
capacity and usage patterns. Also the types of services accessed on these devices vary substantially, creating
highly unpredictable levels of demand in mobile data traffic and usage patterns.

The radio access network (RAN) has limited capacity, especially taking into account the unpredictable number of
concurrent users in a specific cell at a given time. In addition, many other factors can adversely impact RAN
capacity, such as interference from other radio sources or atmospheric conditions.




                                                                                                                  12
                                        Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                       Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
The core network is by nature an IP network which is only packet-aware. The core network therefore doesn’t
‘know’ what types of services it is processing. Take the delivery of a time sensitive video for instance. At a packet
level, the network might be functioning perfectly, while the actual service is compromised because of round trip
delays or packet loss. The core network can therefore not understand such Quality of Experience issues and is not
able to optimise the service at this level.

The IP network (‘the internet’) has the
same characteristics as the core network
but with significantly higher capacity.
Under the right circumstances, the levels
of traffic it can potentially generate are
able to overwhelm the mobile network,
in particular the GGSN at the mobile
edge and, of course, the downstream
RAN network and base stations.

Content providers, finally, tend to
assume there is unlimited capacity to
the consumer which, of course, clearly is
not the case. They are not fully aware of
                                                      Figure 6 –The mismatch between the IP and mobile networks
the potential constraints that can occur
en route towards the mobile device. As a result, they are unaware of the QoE level of the content they provide.

A fundamental disconnect therefore exists between the two ultimate ends of the mobile broadband chain; the
content provider and the mobile consumer. This disconnect is caused by a lack of Content Admission Control:

        There is no end to end management of content as a the delivery networks are only packet aware. There is
        no specific mechanism in place to ensure the content is delivered in an optimal way. In particular, no
        decisions are made to prioritise certain packets, because they represent a time sensitive audio stream for
        example, over other packets which are non-time sensitive. A p2p packet, for instance, can easily be
        delayed in preference to a VoIP packet without impacting the service experience.

        There is no end to end resource awareness prohibiting content providers to incorporate end user capacity
        as part of the content delivery. If the video content provider such as YouTube, for instance, would be
        aware that the consumer only has 300 Kbps of capacity, it could stream a version of the video which
        meets those capacity requirements.

        There is no end to end consumer awareness which is required for tailoring the Quality of Experience to a
        specific consumer. A good example are cost conscious consumers, which our research has identified as
        15% to 25% of the population. These consumers prefer all content to be as compressed as possible in
        order to save on bundle use. Another example are corporate consumers, who are willing to pay an
        additional fee for a premium VoIP service which prioritises all their VoIP traffic. In order to enable these
        types of scenario’s the network needs to be both consumer and Quality of Experience aware.

                                                                                                                  13
                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Seizing the opportunity – maximise network utilisation

The disconnect between content provider and
mobile user needs to be addressed in order to
increase the oversubscription ratio as well as
improving Quality of Experience levels. In terms
of network capabilities this is where we believe
operators should seize the opportunity; by
adding Content Admission Control capabilities,
making the end to end network content,
resource and consumer aware.

Only by adding these levels of awareness will it
be possible to manage content in such a way
that the network resources are fully utilised .
Also, it increases the oversubscription ratio,
enabling more simultaneous users on the
network. And finally, these three levels of
awareness allow end to end management of the
Quality of Experience for individual consumers                 Figure 7 –Introducing content admission control

Obviously capabilities are required between the mobile and IP networks to enable end to end content admission
control. These capabilities will be discussed in section 8 of this document.




                                                                                                                 14
                                  Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                 Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
4. The Consumer Perspective
In August 2010, Acision commissioned research with Quantinet, aimed to understand in greater detail the specific
consumer perceptions and needs in the Brazilian mobile broadband market. The research shows there exist clear
opportunities for mobile broadband providers in Brazil.

First and foremost, the research confirms the increasingly important role of mobile broadband in Brazilian
consumer’s everyday lives, with 69% of Brazilian consumers accessing the internet with their mobile broadband
service at least once a week and over 50% on a daily
basis (figure 8). Secondly, the research shows there
exists a significant untapped Mobile broadband
potential and the opportunity to accelerate subscriber
uptake. Finally, the research provides a useful insight
in ‘preparing for growth’, using the research findings
from mature markets like the US and the UK. This
allows Brazilian operators to prepare for future
growth, learn from the challenges faced by operators
in mature countries today, and obtain a clear
                                                                   Figure 8 – Mobile broadband frequency of use
understanding of the opportunities that emerge during
the mobile broadband road to maturity. With fairness policies, content adaptation and paid for value add services
showing high consumer acceptance in mature mobile broadband markets, the necessary technological capabilities
can already be adopted by Brazilian operators early in the mobile broadband lifecycle.

                          Untapped potential – connecting the next 44 million

The research identifies a substantial untapped mobile broadband potential in Brazil. With 65% of the research
                                                       respondents having the capability to access the mobile
                                                       internet on their device, two thirds do not use mobile
                                                       internet services. This indicates there are potentially 44
                                                       million Brazilian consumers that operators can target
                                                       directly with attractive mobile internet offerings.

                                                          In particular, the research shows that 14% of non
                                                          mobile internet users are already considering to start
                                                          using the service, representing over 6 million potential
                                                          new customers (figure 9). Another 11% are unaware of
  Figure 9 – Perception of non-mobile broadband consumers the value or the types of services mobile internet
provides (5%), representing another 7.3 million of potential customers. But the biggest obstacle for consumers is
the price. Over half of the consumers (55%) that are able to access mobile internet services, won’t do so because
they find it too expensive. With 39% of mobile broadband subscribers paying per MB (figure 4), pricing is clearly
the most important barrier to increased market penetration. This is a clear demonstration that Brazil is still in the
early stages of the mobile broadband lifecycle. Once pricing starts to become less restrictive, operators should
prepare themselves for exponential traffic growth and the associated challenges it poses.
                                                                                                                  15
                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Quality of Experience – core service already under pressure

Quality of Experience of the core service is already creating issues for consumers in Brazil, even though
                                                     penetration levels are still low (figure 10). The significant
                                                     majority of consumers have experienced problems with
                                                     the service, with only 10% of the respondents stating
                                                     they have experienced no issues in the past. The majority
                                                     of issues relate to the network with speed causing issues
                                                     for 75% of consumers. Also 73% of the users were not
                                                     able to connect at a certain moment and if connected,
                                                     68% has experienced issues staying connected. Network
                                                     coverage has been a problem for two thirds of users.
                                                     Issues not related to the core network, such as image
          Figure 10 –Consumers with QoE issues       quality, have significantly lower numbers.

When considering the frequency of these issues, connection speed again tops the poll with 67% of respondents
stating this is a recurring issue (figure 11). Also the other core service issues pose a recurring problem for the
majority of users, with no connection (64%), staying
connected (60%) and no coverage (59%) all affecting
the vast majority of users. Even though image quality
is perceived as the least recurring issue, with 44% it
still affects a significant portion of the subscribers.

These outcomes, the number of users affected as well
as the frequency of issues, are significantly higher
than in any of the other more mature markets Acision
has researched.                                                        Figure 11 – Frequency of QoE issue




                                                                                                               16
                                  Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                 Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Satisfaction levels – pricing is key dissatisfier

With Brazilian customers having relatively high Quality of Experience issues, one would be tempted to expect
satisfaction levels to be very low. But surprisingly enough, this is not the case (figure 12). Although dissatisfaction
levels on core service aspects are between 21% and 27%, more consumers tend to be satisfied with core service
                                                          performance. Coverage, for instance, is rated by 21% of
                                                          users as poor, compared to 40% rating it good. The same
                                                          is true for signal quality, with 22% rating it poor and 40%
                                                          good. And even though speed poses the largest QoE
                                                          issue, significantly more users are satisfied regarding this
                                                          service aspect (35%) compared to dissatisfied (26%).
                                                          Service stability shows similar satisfaction levels, with
                                                          34% rating it good and 27% poor. The key dissatisfier, by
                                                          far, is not the core network but pricing with 45% of
                                                          consumers being dissatisfied about the price compared
                                                          to 23% being satisfied. This is again completely in line
          Figure 12 – Customer satisfaction levels        with Brazil’s position on the mobile broadband life cycle.

The relatively high levels of satisfaction, in light of the Quality of Experience issues, is another example of the early
stages of the market and the effects of the hype cycle in these early stages. For many consumers today’s
experience is their first exposure to (mobile) internet and attitudes toward the service are mainly one of
excitement and exploration. The fact that they can access the internet from a mobile device opens up a whole
new world and provides a positive experience on its own. Once consumer progress along this hype cycle,
operators will find it more difficult to satisfy customers deepening the challenge of customer satisfaction.




                                                                                                                      17
                                    Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                   Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
5. Comparing Brazil with Mature Markets
As part of our global research initiative, Acision commissioned independent research agency Yougov to conduct
consumer research in the mature markets of the US and the UK. This provides an excellent opportunity to
compare the ways in which consumers experience their mobile broadband service in the emerging market of
Brazil with those in the mature markets of the UK and the US.

                   Mobile broadband – crucial for Brazilian broadband penetration

Mobile broadband in Brazil is still a niche service, with 8 million subscribers on a population of 190 million. In the
UK and the US on the contrary, Mobile broadband is well on its way of becoming a mass market service, with 18
million subscribers in the UK (on a population 62 million) and 120 million subscribers in the US (on a population of
309 million)4. In Brazil, 77% of consumers uses a fixed line connection to access the internet, compared to 16%
                                                235%
                                                         using a phone and 30% a laptop dongle (figure 13). With
  Laptop
                            201%
                                                         penetration only at 123%, it shows that Brazilian consumers
  Phone
                                                         are highly dependent on their fixed line connection. In the
  Fixed
                                                         US and the UK, consumers are far less restricted in the way
        123%                                             they want to access the internet. Phone and laptop dongle
                                                         access show similar or even higher penetration than fixed
                                                         line access. The US has an overall penetration of 201%, with
                                                         an almost even spread between fixed line (70%), Phone
                                                         (67%) and laptop (64%) access. The UK has the highest
                                                         overall penetration with 235%, with laptop access (85%)
     Figure 13 – Accessing via fixed, phone or mobile    more popular than fixed line (82%) and phone access (68%).

Even though the majority of Brazilian internet users still depend on their fixed line access (figure 13: 77% points
out of 123%), there are signs of change. The research shows that for the majority of mobile broadband subscribers
(currently 30% points out of 123%), it is their only way to access the internet (52%). Only 48% of Brazilian mobile
broadband subscribers also have fixed access (Figure 14). Mature markets like the US are very different, as 20% of
the subscribers use mobile broadband only and 80% use
both mobile and fixed. Subscribers in the UK show even
higher levels of hybrid usage, with 17% using mobile
broadband only and 83% using both fixed and mobile. So
where mobile broadband in the US and the UK is in many
cases a supplement to fixed broadband, for Brazil it is a
necessary service with limited to no alternatives. The
limited availability of a reliable fixed broadband
infrastructure makes mobile broadband a strategic service
for Brazil, much more so than in the US and the UK where
an extensive and reliable fixed broadband infrastructure is
available.                                                             Figure 14 – Mobile only vs mobile and fixed use




                                                                                                                    18
                                    Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                   Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
The lifecycle – growing mobile broadband

In section 2 of this report we have discussed the mobile broadband life cycle model which allows us to compare
different countries based on their position onf this life cycle (figure 15) . Before comparing the research results, it
                                                                                 is important to understand how each
                                                                                 market is advancing on the Mobile
                                                                                 broadband lifecycle and how they are
                                                                                 positioned against one another. Mobile
                                                                                 broadband penetration in Brazil is low
                                                                                 with only a few percent generating




                                                                          CUSTOMERT SATISFACTION
                                                                                 relatively low traffic volumes (figure 15,
                                                                                 black line). In order to accelarate
TRAFFIC VOLUME




                                                                                 consumer adaption, the main operator
                                                                                 focus in this stage is on acquisition driven
                                                                                 strategies. The introduction of attractive
    CSD    GPRS    EDGE       HSDPA           HSDPA+          LTE   LTE+     ?
                                                                                 pricing models with limited or no
    2000    2002   2004        2008             2010         2012   2014    2016
                              CUSTOMER PENETRATION                               constraints will provide the necessary
       Figure 15 – Maturity and the hype cycle: Brazil vs. the UK and the US     trigger required to fuel penetration.

In the US and the UK penetration levels are well above 25% and traffic volumes are growing exponentially. In
order to support this growth, massive network investments are required and profitability is under severe pressure.
As a result, operators in these markets have abandoned the acquisition driven pricing models and shifted their
focus to profitability driven strategies.

Part of the mobile broadband lifecycle is the consumer hype cycle, which tracks how Quality of Experience
develops throughout the lifecycle (figure 15, red line). For the majority of users in Brazil, this is their first
introduction to mobile broadband (or perhaps even the internet). Satisfaction levels will therefore always be high,
even if the service experience is relatively lacking. The mature users in the US and the UK, with the innovative
edge gone, have become more critical about service quality creating downward pressure on Quality of Experience.
It is these relationships which explain the outcomes of the Brazilian research.

                                     Pricing models – the necessary trigger

As described in section 1, mobile broadband can only really take off if consumers feel they can use the service
without being penalised for usage. Subscriber uptake and data usage are triggered by transparent pricing models
such as per day pricing, Gigabyte bundles or even ‘all you can eat’ unlimited packages. This allows consumers to
use the service without feeling constrained. Once this point is reached, mobile broadband will cross the chasm
from being a niche service to a mass market service which consumers embrace and freely use anytime and
anyplace they like.




                                                                                                                          19
                                     Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                    Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Figure 16 – Consumers paying per KB/MB                            Figure 17 – Dissatisfaction on price


In the US and the UK, pay per use pricing models have almost completely been replaced by bundles or ‘all you can
eat’ packages. In Brazil however, over a third of all consumers is still paying per KB/MB (figure 16). In addition,
another 32% is on a package with restrictions, where they have to pay extra if they exceed their limits. As a result,
around 70% of Brazilian users have a subscription that penalizes use in some way.

The restrictive nature of the pricing models translates into significant dissatisfaction on price. In Brazil pricing
dissatisfaction stands at 45%, which is one and a half times the US level and more than twice as high compared to
the UK (Figure 17). The pricing models in Brazil not only create a barrier to stimulate traffic consumption, they also
constrain further mobile broadband penetration. As mobile broadband is the only option to access the internet for
many Brazilians the need for the service is very high. This represents a great opportunity to grab market share by
operators willing to introduce pricing models which will stimulate consumers more to start using the service.

                                      Service usage – frequency vs. video

Mobile broadband proves to be part of everyday life in all markets when looking at frequency of use (figure 18).
                                                  Even though Brazil has the lowest number of mobile
                                                  broadband users accessing the service at least ones a week
                                                  (62%), they are not that far behind the US (70%) and the UK
                                                  (77%). The difference between users accessing the service on a
                                                  daily basis is even lower, with approximately 50% of US and
                                                  Brazilian consumers accessing the service on a daily basis,
                                                  behind the UK with 58% of daily users. The high frequency of
                                                  use by Brazilian consumers is probably related to the fact that
                                                  the majority of users only accesses the internet via mobile
                                                  broadband. This will also include more family and household
                                                  usage with multiple people using a single mobile broadband
      Figure 18 – Using the service > once a week
                                                  connection.




                                                                                                                   20
                                     Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                    Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Streaming video including services such as YouTube, is becoming more popular every day and is predicted to
generate over two thirds of all mobile broadband traffic in 2014. In the US, already 49% of mobile broadband
subscribers are watching videos (figure 19). For the UK this is 36%. In Brazil however, only 26% of mobile
broadband subscribers watch video. Of these users, only
11% frequently watch video and 15% state they watch it
sporadically. This doesn’t come as a surprise with the
majority of Brazilian consumers either on a per KB/MB
package or on a restricted package, which prevents them
from using high bandwidth applications like video. So even
though Brazilian consumers are frequent users, they are not
consuming the same data volumes as their counterparts in
                                                                                 Figure 19 – Video Users
the US and the UK.

                      Quality of Experience – a challenge throughout the lifecycle

In Section 4 we discussed that Brazilian consumers are already faced with significant Quality of Experience issues
regarding the core service, with speed, reliability and coverage causing the majority of problems. As these issues
are occurring at mobile broadband penetration levels below 5%, and well before the exponential traffic explosion,
a comparison with mature markets can provide useful insights how Quality of Experience issues develop during
the Mobile broadband lifecycle.

Even with the previously outlined QoE issues, consumer dissatisfaction on core service aspects is lower in Brazil
                                                       than in mature markets (figure 20). UK consumers are on
40%
                                         37% Speed     average the most dissatisfied about the core service. Of the
                          33%
                                           Reliability
                                                       core service aspects, speed is by far the biggest cause of
30%        27%                            27%          consumer dissatisfaction in the US (33%) and in the UK
           26%                            27%
          21%
                          21%
                                            Coverage
                                                       (37%). Reliability is the leading cause of consumer
20%
                          21%                          dissatisfaction in Brazil (27%), closely followed by speed
                                                       (26%).
10%
                                                          Despite investments of billions of dollars in network
                                                          expansions and upgrades, consumers in the US en the UK
 0%
             Bra                 US                UK     are still faced with significant problems in core service
   Figure 20 – Dissatisfaction about core service aspects performance. It is clear from these numbers that Quality of
                                                          Experience will increasingly become an important issue for
consumers and operators. Although networks will become more powerful and able to handle more traffic and
concurrent users, pure network investment alone will not prove enough to avoid this upward curve. With traffic
growing exponentially and consumers becoming more critical as the service matures, operators will need to de
more to maintain, let alone improve quality of experience.

The challenge to operators is therefore to do more in addition to rolling out state of the art telecoms networks.
The next section will explore the avenues operators can take to seize the opportunity and make the most out of
their investments.

                                                                                                                    21
                                    Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                   Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
6. Preparing for Growth
When looking ahead on the lifecycle curve, there are three key areas operators in emerging countries should focus
on from the moment they introduce mobile broadband:

    1. Introduce fairness principles that secure fair distribution of bandwidth.
    2. Optimise specific services, such as video, to improve Quality of Experience.
    3. Differentiate the service offering to increase customer choice, satisfaction and revenues.

Deploying capabilities in these areas will enable operators in emerging markets such as Brazil to early address the
QoE and profitability issues that operators in mature markets are struggling with today. Most importantly, the
outcomes of our research in mature markets demonstrates that high levels of consumer buy-in exist to deploy
these capabilities. Providing value add in areas such as fairness, service optimisation and differentiation is
providing consumers with services they are explicitly asking for. By catering to these demands, operators in
emerging markets would be in an ideal position to seize the opportunity early on in the life cycle and combine high
level of acquisition with strong levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty. In the following section this promising
outlook will be discussed. The results are based on Acision’s research in the UK, US, Singapore and Australia
providing clear guidance to what lies ahead.

                      Fairness principles – securing fair distribution of bandwidth

Fair use policies of some kind are being deployed by most providers of fixed and mobile broadband. Consumer
awareness globally of these fair use policies is, however, quite
limited with 63% of consumers not aware whether they have
a fair use policy as part of their service (figure 21). So only
37% of consumers is aware whether a fair use policy is in
place or not. When asked about the underlying reasons for
fair use policies, consumers are, however, quite unaware why
operators have implemented such policies.

When asked if they are aware that a small percentage of users
can generate the majority of network traffic and therefore                 Figure 21 –Do you have a Fair Use Policy?
negatively impact the experience of all users, 64% states they
                                                 are not aware of this issue (figure 22). Another 9% is unsure
                                                 which basically equates to not being aware of the consequences.
                                                 So only 27% of consumers are aware that a relatively large part of
                                                 the available mobile broadband resources can be claimed by
                                                 individual consumers at the expense of others. Without such
                                                 awareness, it is less likely customers will accept certain fairness
                                                 measures that secure a better overall QoE for all users. Raising
                                                 customer awareness of such key technological and business
                                                 issues should therefore be an essential operator objective.
      Figure 22 –Aware of network abuse

                                                                                                                  22
                                     Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                    Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Once consumers have a better understanding of the reasons behind fair use policies, they are able to consider the
value that applying fairness principles can provide. At the same time, it is very important that customers
understand how the fairness principle applies to them personally and how it enables a better QoE for all.

When asked if they would allow the operator to apply a fairness policy in order to improve the QoE, on average
15% of consumers globally stated categorically they would not
accept such a policy (figure 23). Two thirds of consumer
would, however, accept fairness policies with another 18% of
consumers who could possibly be persuaded to accept a
policy, probably if they better understand the impact.

In conclusion, there is a clear support for fairness principles, as
long as consumers are made aware of the necessity and the
impact on their personal QoE. Awareness can be created
through education campaigns explaining the constraints of                Figure 23 – Support for fairness policies
mobile broadband and policy acceptance increased by pro-
actively informing consumers about the applied policy, reason and intended outcome. This provides an excellent
opportunity to actively manage the available broadband capacity for the benefit of the majority of consumers.

                      Content Optimisation – improving video Quality of Experience

A second key capability operators can deploy is content optimisation, especially in those cases where it improves
the consumer experience. Streaming video is a good example of a popular service where operators can realise
impressive QoE improvements. The global research shows that consumers are most annoyed by videos that pause
frequently or take a long time to download. Also, they are hardly at all worried about lower quality in full screen.

This understanding of Quality of Experience preferences provides essential input for optimizing the video service.
                                               Operators can play with the buffer time and quality of the video
                                               as long as they ensure that once the video starts running, it does
                                               so uninterrupted. This way, content optimisation can significantly
                                               enhance consumer satisfaction. When specifically asked whether
                                               they would accept video optimisation (figure 24), 60% of
                                               consumers explicitly confirm they would accept such an approach
                                               or would contemplate it (17%). Only 23% of consumers would, at
                                               present, oppose to such an approach.

  Figure 24 –Acceptance of video optimisation  The support for a combination of picture and video optimisation
                                               proves to be even stronger; when asked if they would
contemplate to pay for a service enabling compression of videos and pictures in order to save on the data bundle,
29% confirmed they would (figure 26). This 29% of global consumers represents a marketable segment of cost
conscious consumers that are very willing to sacrifice content quality to improve on spend. It clearly shows that
when it comes to content, consumers considers a variety of parameters of which content quality is just one.
Consumers are very well able to determine which trade-offs they want to consider in order to create their optimal
personalised services combination.
                                                                                                               23
                                  Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                      Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Differentiate the offer – add monetisable value to the service

The final area focus is on the potential of service differentiation, which provides the opportunity for mobile
broadband ARPU growth and competitive offerings.

First the question was posed whether consumers would be prepared to pay for an overall Quality of Experience
                                               improvement of their mobile broadband service. As figure 25
                                               shows, 35% of global consumers are willing to pay for an
                                               improvement in their current Quality of Experience, with 20%
                                               not sure yet. This provides a clear opportunity for a marketing
                                               strategy which targets high value consumers willing to pay
                                               more for an improved overall service.

                                                      In terms of value added services (VAS), the focus of the
                                                      research is to ascertain whether there is an intrinsic need and
                                                      interest in value added services which can be monetised.
        Figure 25 – Pay for improved QoE?             Many more considerations can be made to determine in depth
                                                      which specific VAS services generates the highest revenue
potential and further research in this area will certainly be valuable. Such a deep dive will, however, require much
more than the panel research used for this report. As such, the revenue opportunities investigated in this research
should be seen as preliminary input for a more detailed consumer propensity study.

The panel research shows a clear monetisable opportunity in VAS, with the majority of respondents stating
interest in one or more paid services. Each of
the polled VAS services could provide a solid
foundation for a marketable consumer
segment:

1. Notifications at predefined spend limit
   (41%)
2. Bandwidth equally shared between as
   many users as possible, ensuring
   connection stability and maximum
   download speeds (35%)
3. Spend control / prevent bill shock (35%)
4. Roaming package with predefined
                                                               Figure 26 – Support for paid value added services
   conditions when connecting to a foreign
   network (34%)
5. Shared bundles like sharing usage allowance with family members (33%)
6. Service customisation like personalised video and picture quality settings (30%)
7. Content compression of video and pictures, allowing more downloads with the same usage allowance (29%)
8. Priority providing the user with higher speeds or more bandwidth (26%)


                                                                                                                   24
                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
7. Converging Eco Systems – Telco’s in the Internet World
Perhaps most fundamental to mobile broadband is the fact that two previously separate eco systems are getting
increasingly closely intertwined. Operators entered an entirely new ecosystem which is driven by content,
accessed in many different ways and provided in even more varied formats and business models. In this content-
driven ecosystem operators need to develop fruitful relations with its key actors, especially content providers,
(content) consumers and regulators. Two aspects of this
eco system are especially important as they are raising a
                                                                                 Consumers
lot of publicity.                                                            Information, productivity,
                                                                                         communication, entertainment


Regulators – achieve sustainable net neutrality

First of all, operators should consider playing a leading
role in the net neutrality debate. For some, the concept of                                     Regulators
net neutrality means providers should treat all consumers
equally in terms of internet use and access, preventing
them from inspecting, shaping or controlling any traffic                Network Operators                Content Providers
running over their networks. However, mobile broadband                Run a sustainable and profitable Ubiquitous access and content
                                                                                 business                       ownership
capacity is a physically constrained resource where
demand fundamentally outstrips supply for the foreseeable future. If left ‘free’ and unchecked, congestion
becomes a permanent feature of the mobile broadband service turning it into a service which is very difficult to
use in any real sense of the word. Also, it does not consider the interest of all stakeholders involved. Operators,
content providers, regulatory bodies and consumers need to work together to agree on a clear definition of
‘fairness’ that can be applied uniformly across the market. The debate is essential to the fundamentals of the
industry and it is essential that all parties, including operators, are heard to ensure a fair and sustainable outcome
is achieved. For operators there is an opportunity to lead in this area and build a reputation of internet
transparency, fairness and trustworthiness.

                            Content providers – delivering the mobility experience

Secondly, the internet ecosystem provides fresh opportunities for operators to leverage internet based content
within the mobile domain. Operators need to look for ways to partner with content providers and create a
differentiated content offering that is beneficial to the consumer as well as the content provider. On top of this,
alternative business models can be developed. This of course places very different demands on mobile providers,
creating wholesale type relationships with certain content providers, including developing capabilities in areas
such as content mediation. This creates a completely new space in terms of consumer interaction, revenue
potential, business models and capabilities for operators to occupy and develop.

The Acision research shows consumers are looking for value add on top of their basic access service. In the end
consumers are most interested in the service itself, not the access method providing it. This provides a great
opportunity for content providers and operators to work together and develop the next wave of killer apps.



                                                                                                                                 25
                                       Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                      Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Seizing the opportunity – leverage the content eco system

A key opportunity exists within the content eco system to harness and leverage its inherent power and
capabilities. The net neutrality debate should be taken as an opportunity by all stakeholders to define terms of
engagement which are beneficial to all, consumers, operators and content providers. Going forward we believe
the following aspects are key requirements for a successful evolution of the content eco system:

   1. The development of the mobile content eco system considers the specific challenges of mobile broadband,
      especially the issues of volume growth and low oversubscription ratio’s. Operators should be allowed to
      deal with these fundamental challenges which threaten to erode the business model.

   2. The Quality of Experience (QoE) of the internet service is one of the key considerations going forward. Our
      research shows that consumers have very different opinions on what is important in a service. For some it
      is price, for others it is speed or uninterrupted play. In order to deliver on these consumer expectations,
      operators should be allowed to optimise the service for specific consumers.

   3. It is of course vital that consumers are able to choose their preferred QoE based on unambiguous and
      transparent information. If presented with a choice, they are able to make considered decisions on which
      aspects of the service they value most. Consumers should not be denied this choice.

   4. The affordability of the internet service is another important requirement for de the development of the
      eco system. In this information age, internet access can rightfully be consider a fundamental human right.
      A low cost no frills package that is affordable for nearly everyone has to exist . Such a service can only exist
      if there is a wide range of premium value added services that will subsidise such a basic package. In order
      to create these levels of differentiation, operators need the capabilities to enforce different service levels
      and monetise them, just as any other business.

   5. The fair treatment of all stakeholders in the eco system, consumers, content providers and network
      operators alike, is another vital requirement in a constrained resource. Especially as it is inevitable that
      demand outstrips supply and consumers continuously contend for more capacity than is available. The
      only way to deal with this is to apply fairness principles. Is it fair that some people take the lions share of
      available bandwidth just because they are smarter internet users? Should someone who has been
      watching video’s all day be treated exactly the same as someone who is just logging on? Clearly not.

   6. Transparency and accountability of operators towards consumers and regulators is the bedrock of a
      successful content eco system governed by sustainable net neutrality principles. Given the importance of
      information and internet access in today’s society, mal use by any party in the content eco system, be it
      certain consumers, content providers or operators, has to be avoided. Operators and content providers
      should equip themselves to provide these levels of transparency and accountability to any party who is
      rightfully requesting such information.




                                                                                                                   26
                                  Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                 Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
8. Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
It is difficult to overestimate the impact of the mobile broadband challenges outlined previously. Current data
consumption levels are already causing network congestion and seriously impacting the Quality of Experience. The
majority of growth is, however, yet to come. The investments in core network and backhaul capacity required to
deliver acceptable Quality of Experience levels will therefore be very significant indeed. As backhaul cost alone
typically represents 30% of operator OPEX, these investments could fundamentally undermine the mobile
broadband business case.

The challenges in Mobile broadband cannot be solved by simply throwing more network capacity at it. Even if it
were possible to create such capacity levels in the Radio Access Networks and core networks, the investment
levels alone would destroy the business case. A more comprehensive and broader approach that addresses all
essential areas is therefore required.

In order for Mobile broadband providers to establish a sustainable business model with a healthy profitability
level, Acision believes the following business priorities are essential.

                       Grow ARPU by enabling a differentiated service offering

Increasing revenue per subscriber is achieved by increasing the perceived value of the broadband service, enticing
consumers pay a premium. Our research shows that consumers want
value added services and are willing to pay additional fees for it. The                     Consumer
                                                                                            Segment
need for a personal Quality of Experience is clear demonstrated. The
                                                                                  Price                Speed
ability to target different segments by differentiating the service and
                                                                                            Tiered
providing value added services is essential in achieving this. Especially                  Packages
                                                                               Priority        &        Location
the mobility aspects of mobile broadband provide a rich set of possible
                                                                                            Pricing
differentiation parameters to be deployed. This requires a step change
                                                                               Application              Time
in operator capability in terms of controlling the service. If higher value
segments are created, it is essential that the agreed Quality of                             Bundle

Experience levels of these premium services are met.

                            Decrease cost by maximising network utilisation

The required network capacity to handle peak concurrent users is the single most important factor in determining
cost levels in mobile broadband. With oversubscription ratio’s significantly lower than in fixed broadband, mobile
operators need to find ways to spread the limited capacity much more efficiently over the customers using the
service at any given point in time.

Operators therefore need to control traffic levels at certain peak times, locations, service types and specific
individuals to free up capacity. By making more efficient use of the network and spreading the freed up excess
capacity over other users, the network cost per user can be brought down. In essence this is a matter of
maximizing network utilization, ensuring network demand is spread out evenly over the day and the number of
concurrent subscribers that can be supported is maximised.

                                                                                                               27
                                  Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                 Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Control QoE by managing relevant service aspects

In such a constrained environment, Quality of Experience is evidently under pressure. Acision’s global consumer
research confirms this is clearly the case in every country and region. QoE issues are not exclusively related to core
access service aspects as coverage, connection stability and speed. More importantly, the QoE of services running
over these networks are at stake. Video is a case in point where considerable issues exist in key video QoE aspects
such as time to screen and video stalling. These issues are widespread in all regions worldwide, ranging from
growing economies such as Brazil to highly developed and densely populated countries such as Singapore.

In addition to increasing network capacity, ensuring a fair distribution of available network resources will be
essential in raising Quality of Experience levels. A capacity constrained environment can only provide high levels of
QoE by enforcing fair distribution of the limited resource between the many users of the service.

In the end, however, it is all about the actual service itself. It is services such as video, VoIP, browsing and gaming
which consumers are enjoying, not ‘megabits per second’. Only if operators are able to optimise the relevant
aspects of these services, taking into account variables such as identity, device, location, service and congestion
level, will they be able to deliver personal Quality of Experience levels for each individual customer. This again sets
requirements on operators far beyond today’s capability levels.

                       Enable value driven engagements with content providers

The net neutrality debate is as much a potential threat to operators as it is a great opportunity. Operators should
actively participate in this debate and seek new ways to create value by working closely together with
stakeholders such as content providers, creating differentiated types of services. In addition, operators can start to
compete on reputation in terms of openness, transparency and accountability in the internet eco system. To
achieve this, operators need to become conversant with a new set of stakeholders, especially regulators and
content providers. They need to provide full transparency on the types of interventions they undertake and
provide full accountability to individual consumers as well as regulators. In delivering content to consumers,
operators can play a crucial role by mediating the most appropriate content based on available network capacity
and device capability. This would enable a truly pro-active content delivery approach, matching source content
with available capacity and capability at the receiving end of the value chain. Imagine the impact of such an end to
end delivery approach on future service offerings and quality of experience levels.

Most importantly it is clear that consumers want the operator to address bottlenecks in the content eco system.
Our research shows that consumers expect operators to optimise their content on their behalf. For some the
driver is improving QoE in areas such as video stalling and time to screen. For others it is about saving money by
compressing all content so their bundle lasts longer. In any case, when operators take a proactive role in the
content eco system, it will be a substantial benefit to all stakeholders involved.




                                                                                                                    28
                                    Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                   Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
Required capabilities – the mobile broadband investment agenda

To achieve the business priorities outlined above, a step change in operator capabilities will be required. In order
to achieve maximum network utilisation and a differentiated consumer offering which is underpinned by accurate
and effective fairness policies, unprecedented levels of control are necessary. Additional capability is required in
three main areas.

Data Enforcement - Provides high performance and reliable components that handle all network traffic. As a
result the Data Enforcement Solution needs to scale very efficiently in order to support hundreds of Gbps of traffic
at cost effective levels of investment. Its key capabilities include traffic insight into consumer, service and network
behaviour, deep packet inspection,
traffic shaping and flow control.

Content Optimisation - Provides fit
for purpose components which are
needed to optimise specific
content services such as video or
browsing.     These    types      of
components provide a highly
specialised     and      dedicated
capability which handles all Quality
of Experience aspects of the
specific service. The Content
Optimisation Solution also reduces
data traffic peaks at a minimum
hardware footprint, while maximising Quality of Experience. It provides key capabilities such as video flow control,
video optimisation, web optimisation and content detection.
Policy Management - Provides highly intelligent components that are required to enable real-time, complex and
rich decision making. These capabilities allow the Data Enforcement and Content Optimisation capabilities to be
applied intelligently based on a wide range of criteria such as customer type, usage to date, available allowance,
time of day and many other potential variables. A Policy Management Solution is essential in enabling the
flexibility required to determine a targeted approach for each individual consumer, service and network event. It
contains a wide, integrated set of capabilities including policy control, quota management, event notifications and
location management.




                                                                                                                    29
                                    Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                   Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
About Acision
Acision (For more information, visit www.acision.com)

As a world leader in mobile data, Acision powers innovation and profitable growth in mobile data services. As the
pioneer of mobile messaging, Acision’s real-time mobile data solutions enable customers worldwide to drive new
revenues with innovative services while controlling, optimising and monetising data traffic.
Acision's proven products and services, experienced people and service innovation allows organisations to meet
the challenges in today’s converging telecommunications market. Acision is at the heart of its customers’ strategic
business services, working together to achieve profitable and sustainable growth. Acision’s recognised expertise
extends across a portfolio of propositions, products and services and is based upon a global track record, business
insight and leading edge technology platforms.

In Mobile broadband, Acision provides the following specific benefits to its customers:

        Network independent position and vision – Acision is the only network vendor independent end to end
        provider in mobile broadband, able to deploy its solutions in any type of mobile, fixed or converged
        network.

        Global mobile data leader and track record – Acision is a world leader in mobile data and has been
        delivering real time mobile data solutions for over 15 years. All solutions within the Acision Broadband
        Mobility Suite are carrier grade products which can be integrated and deployed immediately.

        End to end, pre-integrated and tested – The Acision Broadband Mobility Suite is fully pre-integrated and
        tested in our live reference installation. All our deployments are validated before shipment and
        deployment. This significantly decreases the risk of integration and ensures at a business level that all use
        cases are fully supported after deployment.

        Single operating environment – Most mobile broadband solutions consist of disparate loosely integrated
        components all operating under different operational regimes. The Acision Broadband Mobility Suite is
        unique in providing a single operational environment for all the components it integrates into a holistic
        solution.

        Carrier class scale and execution – Scale and reliability at affordable levels of investment are essential
        prerequisites for any viable mobile broadband solution. Our mobile data services solutions have over the
        past 15 years adhered to these fundamental principles. Acision Broadband Mobility Suite is unique in its
        low hardware footprint, availability levels and maintainability.


1
  http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/oct/14/finland-broadband
2
  Cisco, Visual Networking Index (VNI), 2011
3
  http://www.telecoms.com/20933/o2-data-cap-protest-will-help-out-o2/
  http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-20006534-1.html
4
  Informa WCIS - Q2 2010 Mobile broadband subscriptions


                                                                                                                  30
                                   Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband
                                  Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil

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Acision Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile Broadband - Brasil Perspective-09 mar 2011

  • 1. Seizing the opportunity in Mobile broadband -Brazil Perspective- March 2011 Acision Mobile broadband Research for the Brazilian market In association with: 1 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 2. 1. Introduction and Overview ..................................................................................................... 4 Brazil – an emerging mobile broadband market ............................................................................... 4 Main conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 5 Report synopsis ............................................................................................................................... 7 2. The Mobile Broadband Life Cycle ............................................................................................ 8 The mobile broadband lifecycle – igniting consumer adoption ......................................................... 8 The growth of data volumes – the continuous tsunami .................................................................... 9 Quality of Experience – ride the hype cycle .................................................................................... 10 Seizing the opportunity – a head start on differentiation ............................................................... 11 3. The Operator Challenge ....................................................................................................... 11 The root cause – oversubscription ratio in mobile broadband ........................................................ 12 The network impact – connecting the IP and Mobile worlds .......................................................... 12 Seizing the opportunity – maximise network utilisation ................................................................. 14 4. The Consumer Perspective ................................................................................................... 15 Untapped potential – connecting the next 44 million ..................................................................... 15 Quality of Experience – core service already under pressure .......................................................... 16 Satisfaction levels – pricing is key dissatisfier ................................................................................. 17 5. Comparing Brazil with Mature Markets ................................................................................. 18 Mobile broadband – crucial for Brazilian broadband penetration ................................................... 18 The lifecycle – growing mobile broadband ..................................................................................... 19 Pricing models – the necessary trigger ........................................................................................... 19 Service usage – frequency vs. video ............................................................................................... 20 Quality of Experience – a challenge throughout the lifecycle.......................................................... 21 6. Preparing for Growth ........................................................................................................... 22 Fairness principles – securing fair distribution of bandwidth .......................................................... 22 Content Optimisation – improving video Quality of Experience ...................................................... 23 Differentiate the offer – add monetisable value to the service ....................................................... 24 7. Converging Eco Systems – Telco’s in the Internet World .......................................................... 25 Regulators – achieve sustainable net neutrality ............................................................................. 25 Content providers – delivering the mobility experience ................................................................. 25 Seizing the opportunity – leverage the content eco system ............................................................ 26 2 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 3. 8. Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband ........................................................................ 27 Grow ARPU by enabling a differentiated service offering ............................................................... 27 Decrease cost by maximising network utilisation ........................................................................... 27 Control QoE by managing relevant service aspects......................................................................... 28 Enable value driven engagements with content providers ............................................................. 28 Required capabilities – the mobile broadband investment agenda................................................. 29 3 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 4. 1. Introduction and Overview In August of 2010, Acision commissioned independent market research agency, Quantinet, to undertake a detailed survey to understand consumer perceptions of mobile broadband in Brazil. The research covered key aspects associated to mobile broadband today, including insight in Mobile broadband usage and Quality of Experience. The research in Brazil forms part of a global research initiative that Acision has undertaken in the United Kingdom, the US, Australia and Singapore. For every region, the Acision research focuses on all aspects of mobile broadband including the usage of the mobile internet on Smartphones, mobile handsets, dongles, modem sticks, data cards, netbooks, and integrated mobile broadband within laptops. The motivation for Acision to undertake this global research has been the phenomenal uptake of mobile broadband worldwide and the rumoured Quality of Experience issues accompanying it’s steady rise. One of the key objectives of the research has been to quantify these QoE issues, understand it’s principle drivers and determine whether global parallels exist in its development lifecycle. Also, the potential for addressing the key issues in terms of consumer awareness of mobile broadband and willingness to accept fairness, optimisation and differentiation measures, has been another key objective. In both areas we can conclude the global research initiative has been very successful and provides insight in this new and exciting market segment which is beneficial to all stakeholders, being consumers, operators, content providers and regulators. In this report we have dedicated a section on how Brazil can prepare for growth in Mobile broadband subscriber uptake and usage. Comparing the research results from Brazil with those from mature Mobile broadband markets, like the US and the UK, provides useful insight for Brazilian operators on fairness principles, how to deal with video, and ways to differentiate the Mobile broadband offer. The Brazil research was conducted by Quantinet, between the 17th and 22nd of August 2010 and is based on a representative sample of 819 mobile internet users aged between 16 and 74 from Brazil. The research in The US, UK, Australia and Singapore, which is also referenced in this report, had been conducted by YouGov and Toluna. Separate reports for each of these countries are available as well. Brazil – an emerging mobile broadband market Mobile broadband has undeniably turned a corner. High speed networks, flat fee pricing models, Smartphones, tablets and laptops have together fuelled a level of growth exceeding everyone’s expectation. Clearly mobile broadband represents a very significant and strategic opportunity to operators worldwide. Brazil represents an emerging Mobile broadband market with enormous growth potential. Even though Brazilian operators can expect similar challenges faced by operators in mature markets, they have the advantage of being able to draw lessons from these earlier experiences. One key lesson is the fact that simply adding network capacity will not be sufficient to ensure customer satisfaction. While investment in network technology and mobile coverage are essential prerequisites for the success of mobile broadband, mature markets have demonstrated that more control is required to make the service a continued success going forward. 4 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 5. The challenge lies in the fundamentally constrained nature of mobile broadband, which is already being experienced by operators across the globe. With today’s pricing models, where substantial bundles are offered with ever diminishing revenues, it doesn’t matter how much one invests in network technology, the demand for capacity will always outstrip supply. This is evident when taking into account specific cell locations, where a relatively low number of users can already create congestion issues. Because of these fundamental constraints, consumer experience will always be under pressure as users compete with each other for limited available capacity. Consumer experience therefore takes centre stage in the evolution of mobile broadband and it represents the focal point of the research Acision has undertaken. This report focuses on exploring what the next challenges are in mobile broadband and what can effectively be done by operators in emerging markets like Brazil, to evolve the service further and continue to capitalise on the opportunity. Main conclusions The main conclusions of Acision’s Brazil mobile broadband research can be summarised as follows: Brazil and the mobile broadband lifecycle – With 8 million subscribers on a population of 190 million, mobile broadband is still in its infancy. But for those who use it, it is perceived as an important service. High dependence on fixed broadband with 77% of Brazilian consumers using a fixed line connection to access the internet, compared to 16% using a phone and 30% a laptop dongle. It also means that a relative low percentage of Brazilian consumers use multiple devices to access the internet. Mobile only use is relatively high as for 52% of the consumers that use mobile broadband for access, it is the only way they access the internet. Only 48% of Brazilian consumers also uses fixed next to mobile. Frequency of use similar to mature markets with almost 7 out of 10 users (69%) using the service on a weekly basis. Over half of Brazilian consumers (51%) even uses the service on a daily basis. High bandwidth, time sensitive services like video showing low usage with just over a quarter (26%) of Brazilian subscribers stating they watch videos. Only 11% of Brazilian subscribers watch videos frequently while the remaining 15% watches videos sporadically. Pricing models do not stimulate mass market uptake with 39% of subscribers paying per KB/MB and another 32% on a restricted package. So only 29% of the subscribers can use the service without restrictions or being (severely) penalised. Quality of Experience and customer satisfaction – Even though subscriber uptake and traffic volumes are relatively low, the majority of consumers have regular occurrences of Quality of Experience issues while using their mobile broadband service. This results in alarming customer satisfaction levels. 90% of Brazilian customers have Quality of Experience issues of some kind especially regarding core aspects of the service such as slow speeds (75%), no connection and connections stability (73% and 68% respectively) and network coverage (67%). Image quality issues show a much lower percentage, but still affects over half the customers (51%). Only 10% of respondents state they haven’t experiences any issues. 5 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 6. Quality of Experience issues are not isolated incidents with the vast majority of customers stating that these issues occur frequently. Core service QoE issues caused by speed (67%), no connection and connections stability (64% and 60% respectively) and network coverage (59%) occur the most frequent. Image quality is perceived as the least recurring issue with 44%. Dissatisfaction exists on certain elements of the service with price causing the highest level of dissatisfaction by far at 45% (bottom 2 out of a 5 point scale). Core service dissatisfaction levels related to stability (27%), download speeds (26%), signal quality (22%) and coverage (21%) are considerably lower. Core service satisfaction levels are relatively high, especially when compared to the (frequency of) QoE issues Brazilian customers have to deal with. 40% of customers are satisfied about the coverage and signal quality (top 2 out of a 5 point scale), followed by speed (35%) and stability (34%). Satisfaction about pricing levels is, as expected, extremely low at 23%. Enormous untapped potential – With 65% of the research respondents having the capability to access the mobile internet on their device, two thirds do not use this services, representing 44 million potential customers operators can target. Of these prospects, 14% are considering the service, representing a core target market of 6 million. But the single most important obstacle for consumers to even start considering the service is price (55% of non-mobile broadband users). Once pricing models become less restrictive, mobile broadband can really take off. Growing mobile broadband – A comparison with the mature mobile broadband markets in the US and the UK provide 2 important lessons for Brazilian operators: Pricing is the necessary trigger for subscriber uptake and data usage. Transparent pricing models such as per day pricing, GB bundles and ‘all you can eat’, do not constrain the customer the way per KB/MB pricing does. Even though, per KB/MB pricing is the most common pricing model in Brazil (39%), compared to only 2% in the US and 4% in the UK. Quality of Experience remains a challenge throughout the mobile broadband lifecycle, resulting in considerable customer dissatisfaction levels. The mature markets even show higher levels of dissatisfaction, with UK consumers the most dissatisfied about all the core service aspects speed (37%), reliability and coverage (both 27%). The US scores slightly better on speed (33%) and reliability and coverage (both 21%). Preparing for growth – Looking ahead the lifecycle curve, learning from mature markets in the US, the UK, Singapore and Australia, there are 3 areas emerging markets should focus on from the start: Fairness policies - Consumers, once they understand the need for resource management, have a high acceptance of policies that enable a fair allocation of the available capacity. Mature markets show 67% support for such a policy. Many (35%) are even prepared to pay a premium if it provides improved QoE. Video optimisation – In mature markets, 60% of video users will accept video optimisation as long as they benefit from an improvement of those aspects of the service experience they find most important. Paid Value Added Services – Mature markets show a clear need for VAS and willingness to pay an additional fee for services like notifications, customisation etc. This provides a third area where operators in emerging markets can immediately start building a more diverse and long term revenue model. 6 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 7. Report synopsis The results outlined below are based on the research Acision commissioned Quantinet to conduct in August 2010. Mobile broadband usage – With 8 million subscribers, mobile broadband is still a niche service in Brazil. 51% of the respondents use the service daily and 18% at least ones a week Fixed broadband is the most common way to access the internet (77%), compared to mobile access via laptop (30%) and phone (16%) 48% of mobile broadband users are hybrid fixed/mobile users, 52% use mobile broadband only. Video penetration stands at 26%, with 11% frequent users and 15% sporadic users Quality of Experience of Core Service – These issues are widespread, with only 10% of the users having no issues. Speed is the most encountered problem affecting 75% of the respondents, with 67% stating this issue as their most frequently experienced problem. All other core service aspects show considerable issues; no connection / staying connected (73% / 68%), no coverage (67%) and low image quality (51%). And all these issues occur frequently; no connection / staying connected (64% / 60%), no coverage (59%) and low image quality (44%). Customer satisfaction – Relatively high when looking at the amount and frequency of QoE issues. Pricing is the main source of dissatisfaction with 45%, compared to 23% satisfaction. Core service dissatisfaction levels (bottom 2 out of a 5 point scale); stability (27%), download speeds (26%), signal quality (22%) and coverage (21%) Core service satisfaction levels (top 2 out of a 5 point scale); coverage / signal quality (both 40%), speed (35%) and stability (34%). Untapped potential – Two thirds of the research respondents can access mobile internet but won’t. Hot prospects are the ones planning to buy (14%). The biggest obstacle is price (55%). Other reasons; don’t need it (31%), not reliable (13%), value unknown (11%), not available (6%), use unknown (5%), not offered (1%) and other (6%). Growing mobile broadband – Can only happen if pricing models are stimulating uptake and usage. Per KB/MB pricing models are most common in Brazil (39%), compared to 2% in the US and 4% in the UK. Other types of restricted pricing models represent another 32% of Brazilian pricing models. 7 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 8. 2. The Mobile Broadband Life Cycle With the widespread adoption of mobile broadband in many parts of the world, operators are entering a fundamentally new playing field. Until recently, the mobile internet was a niche service reserved for business users or the affluent consumer. However, today things are very different and mobile broadband is on the verge of becoming telecom’s next mass market service. With its stellar growth, especially in recent times, the mobile broadband service has become of vital importance to the future of mobile operators. There is, however, more at stake than the classic topic of telco revenue. Broadband access is increasingly seen as playing a vital role in society at large. Many countries are making broadband a key policy area and are increasing regulatory control. Finland is a case in point, being the first country to designate broadband access as a statutory right1. This is especially relevant to mobile broadband as large parts of Finland can only be reached through using mobile technologies. Clearly mobile broadband is here to stay and is providing operators with an excellent opportunity to create a new long term revenue stream. Achieving long term success is, however, far from obvious and many challenges lie ahead on the road to broadband profitability. The mobile broadband lifecycle – igniting consumer adoption Fundamental to understanding the challenges in mobile broadband is the lifecycle of the service (figure 1). A key aspect in this life cycle is the occurrence of exponential volume growth (the black line in figure 1). At some point in the lifecycle a massive explosion of broadband traffic occurs which, in turn, is a key driver for many of the issues challenging mobile broadband providers. The exponential growth of mobile broadband traffic is a result of two main determinants: 1. Usability of the service is the main prerequisite – Usability is a combination of network capacity Figure 1 – The mobile broadband lifecycle which provides broadband access, combined with a mobile device able to run on these networks that provide an intuitive internet experience. The recent advances in both these areas, HDSPA and LTE for network technologies and devices such as android devices, iPhones and, most recently, tablets have now created the fertile starting point for a true broadband experience. Without this prerequisite, traffic explosion will not occur. 8 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 9. 2. Pricing models are a necessary trigger – only if consumers feel they can use mobile broadband without being penalised for usage, will the service really take off. The data traffic explosion is triggered by transparent pricing models such as per day pricing, Gigabyte bundles or even ‘all you can eat’ unlimited packages. This allows consumers to use the service without feeling constrained. Once this point is reached, mobile broadband will cross the chasm from being a niche service to a mass market mobility service which consumers embrace and freely use anytime and anyplace they like. The growth of data volumes – the continuous tsunami Acquisition strategies as the all you can eat model have been, without doubt, very successful indeed. In fact, mobile operators have, in a sense, become victims of their own success. Mobile broadband is proving to satisfy such an important need in consumers that, once 7,000,000 TB per month they start using the service in earnest, they find it impossible to stop. As a result, data volumes in mobile are rising continuously each year. In Latin America, traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of 92% CAGR 2010 - 2015 111% between 2010 to 2015, representing the second highest level of growth of all the regions worldwide2. Traffic is not only changing in terms of volume. The traffic mix in mobile broadband is also under Figure 2 2 – Growth and breakdown of mobile broadband traffic Figure – Growth and breakdown of mobile broadband traffic considerable change. Especially the share of time (source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2011) sensitive, real time content will grow significantly in mobile broadband. These are types of services where packet loss or any delay in transmitting data has an impact on the user experience. Video, VoIP and gaming are examples where round trip delays or packet loss can result in immediate Quality of Experience degradation such as a stutter in a video or on a VoIP call. Current projections estimate the share of time sensitive content to grow to approximately 70% of all mobile broadband traffic. The data challenge for mobile broadband is therefore twofold. On the one hand operators have to deal with significantly more traffic each year for which they have to size all their systems accordingly, including the supporting infrastructure. In addition, they have to deal with traffic which is predominantly time sensitive. This leaves very little room to manoeuvre for operators in terms of how they handle traffic, a topic explained in the next section when we consider the impact on the operator’s technical infrastructure. 9 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 10. Quality of Experience – ride the hype cycle The explosion of data is not the only challenge that operators face in mobile broadband. Quality of Experience is an often ignored second challenge that operators need to address. Many factors can influence the user experience, but limited network capacity and congestion issues caused by the data explosion mentioned above, are the most important ones. The crux of the challenge lies in the fundamentally constrained nature of mobile broadband. Regardless of how much one invests in network technology, the demand for capacity will always outstrip supply. When taking into account specific cell locations, a relative low number of consumers can already create congestion issues. Because of the physical constraints, consumer experience will always be under pressure as consumers compete for limited available capacity. Consumer experience therefore, takes centre stage in the evolution of mobile broadband and it represents the focal point of consumer research Acision has Figure 3 – The consumer hype cycle of mobile broadband undertaken around the globe. We found the Gartner hype cycle (the red line in figure 3.) most effective in explaining the outcomes of our research. Consumer expectations rise significantly during the early stages of mobile broadband introduction, to such an extent that expectations are becoming inflated. The expectation in the early days of mobile broadband that it could completely replace fixed broadband is a case in point. Although this is an inherent mechanism accompanying many technology lifecycles, operators would do well not to fuel such expectations. Focus on managing Quality of Experience enables operators to manage the hype cycle much more effectively and reach a plateau of enlightenment and productivity earlier in the lifecycle. Acision therefore believes that the Quality of Experience of mobile broadband is essential going forward. It represents a key area where capabilities should be deployed to measure and enhance the Quality of Experience of individual consumers. In this context it is important to realise two things. First, Quality of Experience is a very personal concept. For some consumers price is an overriding concern while others find content quality more important. Each consumer should be able to determine which type of experience is most suitable to their individual needs. Secondly, Quality of Experience is all about the actual services being consumed such as video, gaming, voice or browsing. It is at this level that the experience needs to be optimised and tailored to individual consumer needs. This represents a step change from being packet aware to content and service awareness. 10 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 11. Seizing the opportunity – a head start on differentiation In terms of the mobile broadband lifecycle, many markets are now entering the first stages of maturity. The initial acquisition stage has been very effective in making mobile broadband a service which is attractive to the mass market. For Brazil, these more mature markets provide a valuable source of information on how to fuel Mobile Broadband growth without compromising the Quality of Experience. Profitability remains a key challenge for operators in mature markets, especially as they are forced to move away from the ‘all you can eat model’ and are frantically looking for ways to differentiate their offering and dig into new revenue streams. Differentiation will be a core strategy for operators to deploy, creating value for targeted consumer segments and monetising this value accordingly. The most essential element in building this value is the consumer experience. Operators in emerging markets have the advantage they can start acquiring capabilities to differentiate early in the lifecycle. A differentiated consumer experience at the content and service level represents the key to the continued successful growth of the mobile broadband market. 3. The Operator Challenge As mature markets have shown, the initial success of mobile broadband can be partly attributed to the "all you can eat” and “flat fee” pricing models, providing clarity to consumers with little risk of bill shock. Our research has shown that in the US, for instance, only 2% of consumers state paying per Megabyte (figure 4) a comparable number to the UK (at 4%). Other markets, such as Singapore and Australia have under 10% on MB pricing models. In Brazil, however, over a third of all users are paying per megabyte. Packages allowing 5 Gigabytes per month to unlimited usage are very popular in mature markets, with over 50% of consumers subscribed to such packages. For the US this is even 84%. As part of the path to maturity, pricing models in Brazil needs to introduce affordable and less restrictive models, making the service more attractive and fuel mobile Figure 4 – Per MB pricing in Brazil, US, UK, Sing and Aus broadband uptake. The relatively unrestricted packages outlined above do have an important knock on effect on operator profitability though. In order to handle the traffic and QoE demands, operators have to invest heavily in network capacity and supporting infrastructure. As such, the costs associated with supporting the consumption of a single subscriber rises significantly while the basic flat fee pricing models lead to a decreasing Average Revenue per User. Profitability is therefore under severe pressure, with a number of operators that have already bitten the bullet, including O2 UK and AT&T US, switching to a model with data caps3. These are just the first steps in defining new pricing models. Much is still to come in this area and operator capabilities will be stretched to the limit to support more innovative and targeted pricing models aimed at improving profitability levels. 11 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 12. The root cause – oversubscription ratio in mobile broadband The root cause of the profitability issue in mobile broadband is the oversubscription ratio or contention ratio. The fixed broadband model has always been based on the principle that a megabit per second (Mbps) of ‘real’ capacity could be sold many times to individual consumers. This mechanism, which has served its purpose well in fixed broadband, is failing in mobile for a number of reasons. First of all, capacity in a mobile network is much more vulnerable at the network’s edge; the Radio Access Network (RAN). In a specific mobile cell, RAN capacity can easily become very constrained as more people move into the cell. In fixed this is of course much more predictable as connected households do not move around. Capacity in mobile can therefore become exhausted easily in specific cell sites, especially during certain times of the day. Figure 5 – The issue of dropping oversubscription ratios A second important characteristic driving the decline of mobile oversubscription ratio’s is the proportion of time sensitive content in mobile broadband traffic. As mentioned above, up to 70% of mobile traffic is expected to be long duration and time sensitive traffic such as video and VoIP. These services not only generate high levels of data volume, but in addition, claim network capacity for a sustained period of time. A YouTube movie for instance, depending on its quality, can generate between 0.5 to 2.5 Mbps of traffic. Assuming RAN capacity of 14.4 Mbps, between 6 and 30 video users can claim the capacity of an entire base station. This combination of limited RAN capacity and high time sensitive content, such as video, poses one of the core challenges in mobile broadband. The network impact – connecting the IP and Mobile worlds Addressing the oversubscription ratio issue requires an end to end analysis of the chain of delivering the mobile broadband access service. In this service chain a number of fundamental issues exist: The devices that connect to the internet come in an ever increasingly wider variety, ranging from laptops, smartphones, netbooks and iPads to game consoles. Each device has its own characteristics, screen size, memory capacity and usage patterns. Also the types of services accessed on these devices vary substantially, creating highly unpredictable levels of demand in mobile data traffic and usage patterns. The radio access network (RAN) has limited capacity, especially taking into account the unpredictable number of concurrent users in a specific cell at a given time. In addition, many other factors can adversely impact RAN capacity, such as interference from other radio sources or atmospheric conditions. 12 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 13. The core network is by nature an IP network which is only packet-aware. The core network therefore doesn’t ‘know’ what types of services it is processing. Take the delivery of a time sensitive video for instance. At a packet level, the network might be functioning perfectly, while the actual service is compromised because of round trip delays or packet loss. The core network can therefore not understand such Quality of Experience issues and is not able to optimise the service at this level. The IP network (‘the internet’) has the same characteristics as the core network but with significantly higher capacity. Under the right circumstances, the levels of traffic it can potentially generate are able to overwhelm the mobile network, in particular the GGSN at the mobile edge and, of course, the downstream RAN network and base stations. Content providers, finally, tend to assume there is unlimited capacity to the consumer which, of course, clearly is not the case. They are not fully aware of Figure 6 –The mismatch between the IP and mobile networks the potential constraints that can occur en route towards the mobile device. As a result, they are unaware of the QoE level of the content they provide. A fundamental disconnect therefore exists between the two ultimate ends of the mobile broadband chain; the content provider and the mobile consumer. This disconnect is caused by a lack of Content Admission Control: There is no end to end management of content as a the delivery networks are only packet aware. There is no specific mechanism in place to ensure the content is delivered in an optimal way. In particular, no decisions are made to prioritise certain packets, because they represent a time sensitive audio stream for example, over other packets which are non-time sensitive. A p2p packet, for instance, can easily be delayed in preference to a VoIP packet without impacting the service experience. There is no end to end resource awareness prohibiting content providers to incorporate end user capacity as part of the content delivery. If the video content provider such as YouTube, for instance, would be aware that the consumer only has 300 Kbps of capacity, it could stream a version of the video which meets those capacity requirements. There is no end to end consumer awareness which is required for tailoring the Quality of Experience to a specific consumer. A good example are cost conscious consumers, which our research has identified as 15% to 25% of the population. These consumers prefer all content to be as compressed as possible in order to save on bundle use. Another example are corporate consumers, who are willing to pay an additional fee for a premium VoIP service which prioritises all their VoIP traffic. In order to enable these types of scenario’s the network needs to be both consumer and Quality of Experience aware. 13 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 14. Seizing the opportunity – maximise network utilisation The disconnect between content provider and mobile user needs to be addressed in order to increase the oversubscription ratio as well as improving Quality of Experience levels. In terms of network capabilities this is where we believe operators should seize the opportunity; by adding Content Admission Control capabilities, making the end to end network content, resource and consumer aware. Only by adding these levels of awareness will it be possible to manage content in such a way that the network resources are fully utilised . Also, it increases the oversubscription ratio, enabling more simultaneous users on the network. And finally, these three levels of awareness allow end to end management of the Quality of Experience for individual consumers Figure 7 –Introducing content admission control Obviously capabilities are required between the mobile and IP networks to enable end to end content admission control. These capabilities will be discussed in section 8 of this document. 14 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 15. 4. The Consumer Perspective In August 2010, Acision commissioned research with Quantinet, aimed to understand in greater detail the specific consumer perceptions and needs in the Brazilian mobile broadband market. The research shows there exist clear opportunities for mobile broadband providers in Brazil. First and foremost, the research confirms the increasingly important role of mobile broadband in Brazilian consumer’s everyday lives, with 69% of Brazilian consumers accessing the internet with their mobile broadband service at least once a week and over 50% on a daily basis (figure 8). Secondly, the research shows there exists a significant untapped Mobile broadband potential and the opportunity to accelerate subscriber uptake. Finally, the research provides a useful insight in ‘preparing for growth’, using the research findings from mature markets like the US and the UK. This allows Brazilian operators to prepare for future growth, learn from the challenges faced by operators in mature countries today, and obtain a clear Figure 8 – Mobile broadband frequency of use understanding of the opportunities that emerge during the mobile broadband road to maturity. With fairness policies, content adaptation and paid for value add services showing high consumer acceptance in mature mobile broadband markets, the necessary technological capabilities can already be adopted by Brazilian operators early in the mobile broadband lifecycle. Untapped potential – connecting the next 44 million The research identifies a substantial untapped mobile broadband potential in Brazil. With 65% of the research respondents having the capability to access the mobile internet on their device, two thirds do not use mobile internet services. This indicates there are potentially 44 million Brazilian consumers that operators can target directly with attractive mobile internet offerings. In particular, the research shows that 14% of non mobile internet users are already considering to start using the service, representing over 6 million potential new customers (figure 9). Another 11% are unaware of Figure 9 – Perception of non-mobile broadband consumers the value or the types of services mobile internet provides (5%), representing another 7.3 million of potential customers. But the biggest obstacle for consumers is the price. Over half of the consumers (55%) that are able to access mobile internet services, won’t do so because they find it too expensive. With 39% of mobile broadband subscribers paying per MB (figure 4), pricing is clearly the most important barrier to increased market penetration. This is a clear demonstration that Brazil is still in the early stages of the mobile broadband lifecycle. Once pricing starts to become less restrictive, operators should prepare themselves for exponential traffic growth and the associated challenges it poses. 15 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 16. Quality of Experience – core service already under pressure Quality of Experience of the core service is already creating issues for consumers in Brazil, even though penetration levels are still low (figure 10). The significant majority of consumers have experienced problems with the service, with only 10% of the respondents stating they have experienced no issues in the past. The majority of issues relate to the network with speed causing issues for 75% of consumers. Also 73% of the users were not able to connect at a certain moment and if connected, 68% has experienced issues staying connected. Network coverage has been a problem for two thirds of users. Issues not related to the core network, such as image Figure 10 –Consumers with QoE issues quality, have significantly lower numbers. When considering the frequency of these issues, connection speed again tops the poll with 67% of respondents stating this is a recurring issue (figure 11). Also the other core service issues pose a recurring problem for the majority of users, with no connection (64%), staying connected (60%) and no coverage (59%) all affecting the vast majority of users. Even though image quality is perceived as the least recurring issue, with 44% it still affects a significant portion of the subscribers. These outcomes, the number of users affected as well as the frequency of issues, are significantly higher than in any of the other more mature markets Acision has researched. Figure 11 – Frequency of QoE issue 16 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 17. Satisfaction levels – pricing is key dissatisfier With Brazilian customers having relatively high Quality of Experience issues, one would be tempted to expect satisfaction levels to be very low. But surprisingly enough, this is not the case (figure 12). Although dissatisfaction levels on core service aspects are between 21% and 27%, more consumers tend to be satisfied with core service performance. Coverage, for instance, is rated by 21% of users as poor, compared to 40% rating it good. The same is true for signal quality, with 22% rating it poor and 40% good. And even though speed poses the largest QoE issue, significantly more users are satisfied regarding this service aspect (35%) compared to dissatisfied (26%). Service stability shows similar satisfaction levels, with 34% rating it good and 27% poor. The key dissatisfier, by far, is not the core network but pricing with 45% of consumers being dissatisfied about the price compared to 23% being satisfied. This is again completely in line Figure 12 – Customer satisfaction levels with Brazil’s position on the mobile broadband life cycle. The relatively high levels of satisfaction, in light of the Quality of Experience issues, is another example of the early stages of the market and the effects of the hype cycle in these early stages. For many consumers today’s experience is their first exposure to (mobile) internet and attitudes toward the service are mainly one of excitement and exploration. The fact that they can access the internet from a mobile device opens up a whole new world and provides a positive experience on its own. Once consumer progress along this hype cycle, operators will find it more difficult to satisfy customers deepening the challenge of customer satisfaction. 17 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 18. 5. Comparing Brazil with Mature Markets As part of our global research initiative, Acision commissioned independent research agency Yougov to conduct consumer research in the mature markets of the US and the UK. This provides an excellent opportunity to compare the ways in which consumers experience their mobile broadband service in the emerging market of Brazil with those in the mature markets of the UK and the US. Mobile broadband – crucial for Brazilian broadband penetration Mobile broadband in Brazil is still a niche service, with 8 million subscribers on a population of 190 million. In the UK and the US on the contrary, Mobile broadband is well on its way of becoming a mass market service, with 18 million subscribers in the UK (on a population 62 million) and 120 million subscribers in the US (on a population of 309 million)4. In Brazil, 77% of consumers uses a fixed line connection to access the internet, compared to 16% 235% using a phone and 30% a laptop dongle (figure 13). With Laptop 201% penetration only at 123%, it shows that Brazilian consumers Phone are highly dependent on their fixed line connection. In the Fixed US and the UK, consumers are far less restricted in the way 123% they want to access the internet. Phone and laptop dongle access show similar or even higher penetration than fixed line access. The US has an overall penetration of 201%, with an almost even spread between fixed line (70%), Phone (67%) and laptop (64%) access. The UK has the highest overall penetration with 235%, with laptop access (85%) Figure 13 – Accessing via fixed, phone or mobile more popular than fixed line (82%) and phone access (68%). Even though the majority of Brazilian internet users still depend on their fixed line access (figure 13: 77% points out of 123%), there are signs of change. The research shows that for the majority of mobile broadband subscribers (currently 30% points out of 123%), it is their only way to access the internet (52%). Only 48% of Brazilian mobile broadband subscribers also have fixed access (Figure 14). Mature markets like the US are very different, as 20% of the subscribers use mobile broadband only and 80% use both mobile and fixed. Subscribers in the UK show even higher levels of hybrid usage, with 17% using mobile broadband only and 83% using both fixed and mobile. So where mobile broadband in the US and the UK is in many cases a supplement to fixed broadband, for Brazil it is a necessary service with limited to no alternatives. The limited availability of a reliable fixed broadband infrastructure makes mobile broadband a strategic service for Brazil, much more so than in the US and the UK where an extensive and reliable fixed broadband infrastructure is available. Figure 14 – Mobile only vs mobile and fixed use 18 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 19. The lifecycle – growing mobile broadband In section 2 of this report we have discussed the mobile broadband life cycle model which allows us to compare different countries based on their position onf this life cycle (figure 15) . Before comparing the research results, it is important to understand how each market is advancing on the Mobile broadband lifecycle and how they are positioned against one another. Mobile broadband penetration in Brazil is low with only a few percent generating CUSTOMERT SATISFACTION relatively low traffic volumes (figure 15, black line). In order to accelarate TRAFFIC VOLUME consumer adaption, the main operator focus in this stage is on acquisition driven strategies. The introduction of attractive CSD GPRS EDGE HSDPA HSDPA+ LTE LTE+ ? pricing models with limited or no 2000 2002 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 CUSTOMER PENETRATION constraints will provide the necessary Figure 15 – Maturity and the hype cycle: Brazil vs. the UK and the US trigger required to fuel penetration. In the US and the UK penetration levels are well above 25% and traffic volumes are growing exponentially. In order to support this growth, massive network investments are required and profitability is under severe pressure. As a result, operators in these markets have abandoned the acquisition driven pricing models and shifted their focus to profitability driven strategies. Part of the mobile broadband lifecycle is the consumer hype cycle, which tracks how Quality of Experience develops throughout the lifecycle (figure 15, red line). For the majority of users in Brazil, this is their first introduction to mobile broadband (or perhaps even the internet). Satisfaction levels will therefore always be high, even if the service experience is relatively lacking. The mature users in the US and the UK, with the innovative edge gone, have become more critical about service quality creating downward pressure on Quality of Experience. It is these relationships which explain the outcomes of the Brazilian research. Pricing models – the necessary trigger As described in section 1, mobile broadband can only really take off if consumers feel they can use the service without being penalised for usage. Subscriber uptake and data usage are triggered by transparent pricing models such as per day pricing, Gigabyte bundles or even ‘all you can eat’ unlimited packages. This allows consumers to use the service without feeling constrained. Once this point is reached, mobile broadband will cross the chasm from being a niche service to a mass market service which consumers embrace and freely use anytime and anyplace they like. 19 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 20. Figure 16 – Consumers paying per KB/MB Figure 17 – Dissatisfaction on price In the US and the UK, pay per use pricing models have almost completely been replaced by bundles or ‘all you can eat’ packages. In Brazil however, over a third of all consumers is still paying per KB/MB (figure 16). In addition, another 32% is on a package with restrictions, where they have to pay extra if they exceed their limits. As a result, around 70% of Brazilian users have a subscription that penalizes use in some way. The restrictive nature of the pricing models translates into significant dissatisfaction on price. In Brazil pricing dissatisfaction stands at 45%, which is one and a half times the US level and more than twice as high compared to the UK (Figure 17). The pricing models in Brazil not only create a barrier to stimulate traffic consumption, they also constrain further mobile broadband penetration. As mobile broadband is the only option to access the internet for many Brazilians the need for the service is very high. This represents a great opportunity to grab market share by operators willing to introduce pricing models which will stimulate consumers more to start using the service. Service usage – frequency vs. video Mobile broadband proves to be part of everyday life in all markets when looking at frequency of use (figure 18). Even though Brazil has the lowest number of mobile broadband users accessing the service at least ones a week (62%), they are not that far behind the US (70%) and the UK (77%). The difference between users accessing the service on a daily basis is even lower, with approximately 50% of US and Brazilian consumers accessing the service on a daily basis, behind the UK with 58% of daily users. The high frequency of use by Brazilian consumers is probably related to the fact that the majority of users only accesses the internet via mobile broadband. This will also include more family and household usage with multiple people using a single mobile broadband Figure 18 – Using the service > once a week connection. 20 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 21. Streaming video including services such as YouTube, is becoming more popular every day and is predicted to generate over two thirds of all mobile broadband traffic in 2014. In the US, already 49% of mobile broadband subscribers are watching videos (figure 19). For the UK this is 36%. In Brazil however, only 26% of mobile broadband subscribers watch video. Of these users, only 11% frequently watch video and 15% state they watch it sporadically. This doesn’t come as a surprise with the majority of Brazilian consumers either on a per KB/MB package or on a restricted package, which prevents them from using high bandwidth applications like video. So even though Brazilian consumers are frequent users, they are not consuming the same data volumes as their counterparts in Figure 19 – Video Users the US and the UK. Quality of Experience – a challenge throughout the lifecycle In Section 4 we discussed that Brazilian consumers are already faced with significant Quality of Experience issues regarding the core service, with speed, reliability and coverage causing the majority of problems. As these issues are occurring at mobile broadband penetration levels below 5%, and well before the exponential traffic explosion, a comparison with mature markets can provide useful insights how Quality of Experience issues develop during the Mobile broadband lifecycle. Even with the previously outlined QoE issues, consumer dissatisfaction on core service aspects is lower in Brazil than in mature markets (figure 20). UK consumers are on 40% 37% Speed average the most dissatisfied about the core service. Of the 33% Reliability core service aspects, speed is by far the biggest cause of 30% 27% 27% consumer dissatisfaction in the US (33%) and in the UK 26% 27% 21% 21% Coverage (37%). Reliability is the leading cause of consumer 20% 21% dissatisfaction in Brazil (27%), closely followed by speed (26%). 10% Despite investments of billions of dollars in network expansions and upgrades, consumers in the US en the UK 0% Bra US UK are still faced with significant problems in core service Figure 20 – Dissatisfaction about core service aspects performance. It is clear from these numbers that Quality of Experience will increasingly become an important issue for consumers and operators. Although networks will become more powerful and able to handle more traffic and concurrent users, pure network investment alone will not prove enough to avoid this upward curve. With traffic growing exponentially and consumers becoming more critical as the service matures, operators will need to de more to maintain, let alone improve quality of experience. The challenge to operators is therefore to do more in addition to rolling out state of the art telecoms networks. The next section will explore the avenues operators can take to seize the opportunity and make the most out of their investments. 21 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 22. 6. Preparing for Growth When looking ahead on the lifecycle curve, there are three key areas operators in emerging countries should focus on from the moment they introduce mobile broadband: 1. Introduce fairness principles that secure fair distribution of bandwidth. 2. Optimise specific services, such as video, to improve Quality of Experience. 3. Differentiate the service offering to increase customer choice, satisfaction and revenues. Deploying capabilities in these areas will enable operators in emerging markets such as Brazil to early address the QoE and profitability issues that operators in mature markets are struggling with today. Most importantly, the outcomes of our research in mature markets demonstrates that high levels of consumer buy-in exist to deploy these capabilities. Providing value add in areas such as fairness, service optimisation and differentiation is providing consumers with services they are explicitly asking for. By catering to these demands, operators in emerging markets would be in an ideal position to seize the opportunity early on in the life cycle and combine high level of acquisition with strong levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty. In the following section this promising outlook will be discussed. The results are based on Acision’s research in the UK, US, Singapore and Australia providing clear guidance to what lies ahead. Fairness principles – securing fair distribution of bandwidth Fair use policies of some kind are being deployed by most providers of fixed and mobile broadband. Consumer awareness globally of these fair use policies is, however, quite limited with 63% of consumers not aware whether they have a fair use policy as part of their service (figure 21). So only 37% of consumers is aware whether a fair use policy is in place or not. When asked about the underlying reasons for fair use policies, consumers are, however, quite unaware why operators have implemented such policies. When asked if they are aware that a small percentage of users can generate the majority of network traffic and therefore Figure 21 –Do you have a Fair Use Policy? negatively impact the experience of all users, 64% states they are not aware of this issue (figure 22). Another 9% is unsure which basically equates to not being aware of the consequences. So only 27% of consumers are aware that a relatively large part of the available mobile broadband resources can be claimed by individual consumers at the expense of others. Without such awareness, it is less likely customers will accept certain fairness measures that secure a better overall QoE for all users. Raising customer awareness of such key technological and business issues should therefore be an essential operator objective. Figure 22 –Aware of network abuse 22 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 23. Once consumers have a better understanding of the reasons behind fair use policies, they are able to consider the value that applying fairness principles can provide. At the same time, it is very important that customers understand how the fairness principle applies to them personally and how it enables a better QoE for all. When asked if they would allow the operator to apply a fairness policy in order to improve the QoE, on average 15% of consumers globally stated categorically they would not accept such a policy (figure 23). Two thirds of consumer would, however, accept fairness policies with another 18% of consumers who could possibly be persuaded to accept a policy, probably if they better understand the impact. In conclusion, there is a clear support for fairness principles, as long as consumers are made aware of the necessity and the impact on their personal QoE. Awareness can be created through education campaigns explaining the constraints of Figure 23 – Support for fairness policies mobile broadband and policy acceptance increased by pro- actively informing consumers about the applied policy, reason and intended outcome. This provides an excellent opportunity to actively manage the available broadband capacity for the benefit of the majority of consumers. Content Optimisation – improving video Quality of Experience A second key capability operators can deploy is content optimisation, especially in those cases where it improves the consumer experience. Streaming video is a good example of a popular service where operators can realise impressive QoE improvements. The global research shows that consumers are most annoyed by videos that pause frequently or take a long time to download. Also, they are hardly at all worried about lower quality in full screen. This understanding of Quality of Experience preferences provides essential input for optimizing the video service. Operators can play with the buffer time and quality of the video as long as they ensure that once the video starts running, it does so uninterrupted. This way, content optimisation can significantly enhance consumer satisfaction. When specifically asked whether they would accept video optimisation (figure 24), 60% of consumers explicitly confirm they would accept such an approach or would contemplate it (17%). Only 23% of consumers would, at present, oppose to such an approach. Figure 24 –Acceptance of video optimisation The support for a combination of picture and video optimisation proves to be even stronger; when asked if they would contemplate to pay for a service enabling compression of videos and pictures in order to save on the data bundle, 29% confirmed they would (figure 26). This 29% of global consumers represents a marketable segment of cost conscious consumers that are very willing to sacrifice content quality to improve on spend. It clearly shows that when it comes to content, consumers considers a variety of parameters of which content quality is just one. Consumers are very well able to determine which trade-offs they want to consider in order to create their optimal personalised services combination. 23 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 24. Differentiate the offer – add monetisable value to the service The final area focus is on the potential of service differentiation, which provides the opportunity for mobile broadband ARPU growth and competitive offerings. First the question was posed whether consumers would be prepared to pay for an overall Quality of Experience improvement of their mobile broadband service. As figure 25 shows, 35% of global consumers are willing to pay for an improvement in their current Quality of Experience, with 20% not sure yet. This provides a clear opportunity for a marketing strategy which targets high value consumers willing to pay more for an improved overall service. In terms of value added services (VAS), the focus of the research is to ascertain whether there is an intrinsic need and interest in value added services which can be monetised. Figure 25 – Pay for improved QoE? Many more considerations can be made to determine in depth which specific VAS services generates the highest revenue potential and further research in this area will certainly be valuable. Such a deep dive will, however, require much more than the panel research used for this report. As such, the revenue opportunities investigated in this research should be seen as preliminary input for a more detailed consumer propensity study. The panel research shows a clear monetisable opportunity in VAS, with the majority of respondents stating interest in one or more paid services. Each of the polled VAS services could provide a solid foundation for a marketable consumer segment: 1. Notifications at predefined spend limit (41%) 2. Bandwidth equally shared between as many users as possible, ensuring connection stability and maximum download speeds (35%) 3. Spend control / prevent bill shock (35%) 4. Roaming package with predefined Figure 26 – Support for paid value added services conditions when connecting to a foreign network (34%) 5. Shared bundles like sharing usage allowance with family members (33%) 6. Service customisation like personalised video and picture quality settings (30%) 7. Content compression of video and pictures, allowing more downloads with the same usage allowance (29%) 8. Priority providing the user with higher speeds or more bandwidth (26%) 24 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 25. 7. Converging Eco Systems – Telco’s in the Internet World Perhaps most fundamental to mobile broadband is the fact that two previously separate eco systems are getting increasingly closely intertwined. Operators entered an entirely new ecosystem which is driven by content, accessed in many different ways and provided in even more varied formats and business models. In this content- driven ecosystem operators need to develop fruitful relations with its key actors, especially content providers, (content) consumers and regulators. Two aspects of this eco system are especially important as they are raising a Consumers lot of publicity. Information, productivity, communication, entertainment Regulators – achieve sustainable net neutrality First of all, operators should consider playing a leading role in the net neutrality debate. For some, the concept of Regulators net neutrality means providers should treat all consumers equally in terms of internet use and access, preventing them from inspecting, shaping or controlling any traffic Network Operators Content Providers running over their networks. However, mobile broadband Run a sustainable and profitable Ubiquitous access and content business ownership capacity is a physically constrained resource where demand fundamentally outstrips supply for the foreseeable future. If left ‘free’ and unchecked, congestion becomes a permanent feature of the mobile broadband service turning it into a service which is very difficult to use in any real sense of the word. Also, it does not consider the interest of all stakeholders involved. Operators, content providers, regulatory bodies and consumers need to work together to agree on a clear definition of ‘fairness’ that can be applied uniformly across the market. The debate is essential to the fundamentals of the industry and it is essential that all parties, including operators, are heard to ensure a fair and sustainable outcome is achieved. For operators there is an opportunity to lead in this area and build a reputation of internet transparency, fairness and trustworthiness. Content providers – delivering the mobility experience Secondly, the internet ecosystem provides fresh opportunities for operators to leverage internet based content within the mobile domain. Operators need to look for ways to partner with content providers and create a differentiated content offering that is beneficial to the consumer as well as the content provider. On top of this, alternative business models can be developed. This of course places very different demands on mobile providers, creating wholesale type relationships with certain content providers, including developing capabilities in areas such as content mediation. This creates a completely new space in terms of consumer interaction, revenue potential, business models and capabilities for operators to occupy and develop. The Acision research shows consumers are looking for value add on top of their basic access service. In the end consumers are most interested in the service itself, not the access method providing it. This provides a great opportunity for content providers and operators to work together and develop the next wave of killer apps. 25 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 26. Seizing the opportunity – leverage the content eco system A key opportunity exists within the content eco system to harness and leverage its inherent power and capabilities. The net neutrality debate should be taken as an opportunity by all stakeholders to define terms of engagement which are beneficial to all, consumers, operators and content providers. Going forward we believe the following aspects are key requirements for a successful evolution of the content eco system: 1. The development of the mobile content eco system considers the specific challenges of mobile broadband, especially the issues of volume growth and low oversubscription ratio’s. Operators should be allowed to deal with these fundamental challenges which threaten to erode the business model. 2. The Quality of Experience (QoE) of the internet service is one of the key considerations going forward. Our research shows that consumers have very different opinions on what is important in a service. For some it is price, for others it is speed or uninterrupted play. In order to deliver on these consumer expectations, operators should be allowed to optimise the service for specific consumers. 3. It is of course vital that consumers are able to choose their preferred QoE based on unambiguous and transparent information. If presented with a choice, they are able to make considered decisions on which aspects of the service they value most. Consumers should not be denied this choice. 4. The affordability of the internet service is another important requirement for de the development of the eco system. In this information age, internet access can rightfully be consider a fundamental human right. A low cost no frills package that is affordable for nearly everyone has to exist . Such a service can only exist if there is a wide range of premium value added services that will subsidise such a basic package. In order to create these levels of differentiation, operators need the capabilities to enforce different service levels and monetise them, just as any other business. 5. The fair treatment of all stakeholders in the eco system, consumers, content providers and network operators alike, is another vital requirement in a constrained resource. Especially as it is inevitable that demand outstrips supply and consumers continuously contend for more capacity than is available. The only way to deal with this is to apply fairness principles. Is it fair that some people take the lions share of available bandwidth just because they are smarter internet users? Should someone who has been watching video’s all day be treated exactly the same as someone who is just logging on? Clearly not. 6. Transparency and accountability of operators towards consumers and regulators is the bedrock of a successful content eco system governed by sustainable net neutrality principles. Given the importance of information and internet access in today’s society, mal use by any party in the content eco system, be it certain consumers, content providers or operators, has to be avoided. Operators and content providers should equip themselves to provide these levels of transparency and accountability to any party who is rightfully requesting such information. 26 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 27. 8. Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband It is difficult to overestimate the impact of the mobile broadband challenges outlined previously. Current data consumption levels are already causing network congestion and seriously impacting the Quality of Experience. The majority of growth is, however, yet to come. The investments in core network and backhaul capacity required to deliver acceptable Quality of Experience levels will therefore be very significant indeed. As backhaul cost alone typically represents 30% of operator OPEX, these investments could fundamentally undermine the mobile broadband business case. The challenges in Mobile broadband cannot be solved by simply throwing more network capacity at it. Even if it were possible to create such capacity levels in the Radio Access Networks and core networks, the investment levels alone would destroy the business case. A more comprehensive and broader approach that addresses all essential areas is therefore required. In order for Mobile broadband providers to establish a sustainable business model with a healthy profitability level, Acision believes the following business priorities are essential. Grow ARPU by enabling a differentiated service offering Increasing revenue per subscriber is achieved by increasing the perceived value of the broadband service, enticing consumers pay a premium. Our research shows that consumers want value added services and are willing to pay additional fees for it. The Consumer Segment need for a personal Quality of Experience is clear demonstrated. The Price Speed ability to target different segments by differentiating the service and Tiered providing value added services is essential in achieving this. Especially Packages Priority & Location the mobility aspects of mobile broadband provide a rich set of possible Pricing differentiation parameters to be deployed. This requires a step change Application Time in operator capability in terms of controlling the service. If higher value segments are created, it is essential that the agreed Quality of Bundle Experience levels of these premium services are met. Decrease cost by maximising network utilisation The required network capacity to handle peak concurrent users is the single most important factor in determining cost levels in mobile broadband. With oversubscription ratio’s significantly lower than in fixed broadband, mobile operators need to find ways to spread the limited capacity much more efficiently over the customers using the service at any given point in time. Operators therefore need to control traffic levels at certain peak times, locations, service types and specific individuals to free up capacity. By making more efficient use of the network and spreading the freed up excess capacity over other users, the network cost per user can be brought down. In essence this is a matter of maximizing network utilization, ensuring network demand is spread out evenly over the day and the number of concurrent subscribers that can be supported is maximised. 27 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 28. Control QoE by managing relevant service aspects In such a constrained environment, Quality of Experience is evidently under pressure. Acision’s global consumer research confirms this is clearly the case in every country and region. QoE issues are not exclusively related to core access service aspects as coverage, connection stability and speed. More importantly, the QoE of services running over these networks are at stake. Video is a case in point where considerable issues exist in key video QoE aspects such as time to screen and video stalling. These issues are widespread in all regions worldwide, ranging from growing economies such as Brazil to highly developed and densely populated countries such as Singapore. In addition to increasing network capacity, ensuring a fair distribution of available network resources will be essential in raising Quality of Experience levels. A capacity constrained environment can only provide high levels of QoE by enforcing fair distribution of the limited resource between the many users of the service. In the end, however, it is all about the actual service itself. It is services such as video, VoIP, browsing and gaming which consumers are enjoying, not ‘megabits per second’. Only if operators are able to optimise the relevant aspects of these services, taking into account variables such as identity, device, location, service and congestion level, will they be able to deliver personal Quality of Experience levels for each individual customer. This again sets requirements on operators far beyond today’s capability levels. Enable value driven engagements with content providers The net neutrality debate is as much a potential threat to operators as it is a great opportunity. Operators should actively participate in this debate and seek new ways to create value by working closely together with stakeholders such as content providers, creating differentiated types of services. In addition, operators can start to compete on reputation in terms of openness, transparency and accountability in the internet eco system. To achieve this, operators need to become conversant with a new set of stakeholders, especially regulators and content providers. They need to provide full transparency on the types of interventions they undertake and provide full accountability to individual consumers as well as regulators. In delivering content to consumers, operators can play a crucial role by mediating the most appropriate content based on available network capacity and device capability. This would enable a truly pro-active content delivery approach, matching source content with available capacity and capability at the receiving end of the value chain. Imagine the impact of such an end to end delivery approach on future service offerings and quality of experience levels. Most importantly it is clear that consumers want the operator to address bottlenecks in the content eco system. Our research shows that consumers expect operators to optimise their content on their behalf. For some the driver is improving QoE in areas such as video stalling and time to screen. For others it is about saving money by compressing all content so their bundle lasts longer. In any case, when operators take a proactive role in the content eco system, it will be a substantial benefit to all stakeholders involved. 28 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 29. Required capabilities – the mobile broadband investment agenda To achieve the business priorities outlined above, a step change in operator capabilities will be required. In order to achieve maximum network utilisation and a differentiated consumer offering which is underpinned by accurate and effective fairness policies, unprecedented levels of control are necessary. Additional capability is required in three main areas. Data Enforcement - Provides high performance and reliable components that handle all network traffic. As a result the Data Enforcement Solution needs to scale very efficiently in order to support hundreds of Gbps of traffic at cost effective levels of investment. Its key capabilities include traffic insight into consumer, service and network behaviour, deep packet inspection, traffic shaping and flow control. Content Optimisation - Provides fit for purpose components which are needed to optimise specific content services such as video or browsing. These types of components provide a highly specialised and dedicated capability which handles all Quality of Experience aspects of the specific service. The Content Optimisation Solution also reduces data traffic peaks at a minimum hardware footprint, while maximising Quality of Experience. It provides key capabilities such as video flow control, video optimisation, web optimisation and content detection. Policy Management - Provides highly intelligent components that are required to enable real-time, complex and rich decision making. These capabilities allow the Data Enforcement and Content Optimisation capabilities to be applied intelligently based on a wide range of criteria such as customer type, usage to date, available allowance, time of day and many other potential variables. A Policy Management Solution is essential in enabling the flexibility required to determine a targeted approach for each individual consumer, service and network event. It contains a wide, integrated set of capabilities including policy control, quota management, event notifications and location management. 29 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil
  • 30. About Acision Acision (For more information, visit www.acision.com) As a world leader in mobile data, Acision powers innovation and profitable growth in mobile data services. As the pioneer of mobile messaging, Acision’s real-time mobile data solutions enable customers worldwide to drive new revenues with innovative services while controlling, optimising and monetising data traffic. Acision's proven products and services, experienced people and service innovation allows organisations to meet the challenges in today’s converging telecommunications market. Acision is at the heart of its customers’ strategic business services, working together to achieve profitable and sustainable growth. Acision’s recognised expertise extends across a portfolio of propositions, products and services and is based upon a global track record, business insight and leading edge technology platforms. In Mobile broadband, Acision provides the following specific benefits to its customers: Network independent position and vision – Acision is the only network vendor independent end to end provider in mobile broadband, able to deploy its solutions in any type of mobile, fixed or converged network. Global mobile data leader and track record – Acision is a world leader in mobile data and has been delivering real time mobile data solutions for over 15 years. All solutions within the Acision Broadband Mobility Suite are carrier grade products which can be integrated and deployed immediately. End to end, pre-integrated and tested – The Acision Broadband Mobility Suite is fully pre-integrated and tested in our live reference installation. All our deployments are validated before shipment and deployment. This significantly decreases the risk of integration and ensures at a business level that all use cases are fully supported after deployment. Single operating environment – Most mobile broadband solutions consist of disparate loosely integrated components all operating under different operational regimes. The Acision Broadband Mobility Suite is unique in providing a single operational environment for all the components it integrates into a holistic solution. Carrier class scale and execution – Scale and reliability at affordable levels of investment are essential prerequisites for any viable mobile broadband solution. Our mobile data services solutions have over the past 15 years adhered to these fundamental principles. Acision Broadband Mobility Suite is unique in its low hardware footprint, availability levels and maintainability. 1 http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/oct/14/finland-broadband 2 Cisco, Visual Networking Index (VNI), 2011 3 http://www.telecoms.com/20933/o2-data-cap-protest-will-help-out-o2/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-20006534-1.html 4 Informa WCIS - Q2 2010 Mobile broadband subscriptions 30 Seizing the Opportunity in Mobile broadband Consumer perception of mobile broadband in Brazil